Clouds, unstable Loop Current making oil spill prediction difficult

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:48 PM GMT on May 18, 2010

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It's cloudy over the Gulf of Mexico today, so it is difficult to tell how far into the Loop Current the Deepwater Horizon oil has penetrated using visible satellite imagery. Satellite imagery yesterday from NASA's MODIS instrument confirmed that a tongue of oil moved southeast from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and entered the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current. However, Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery from the European Envisat satellite posted at ROFFS Ocean Forecasting Service shows that while some of the tongue of oil that entered the Loop Current appears to be circulating southwards towards the Florida Keys, perhaps 80% of the oil in this tongue is caught in a counter-clockwise circulating eddy along the north side of the Loop Current. This oil may eventually circulate around and enter the Loop Current, but not for at least three days.


Figure 1. Oil spill forecast for this Thursday night as simulated by the 6pm EDT Monday May 17 runs of the Navy Gulf of Mexico HYCOM nowcast/forecast system and the Global HYCOM + NCODA Analysis from the HYCOM Consortium. See the University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group website for more information. There are considerable differences between the two models, due in part to the fact that they have much different depictions of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean currents at the beginning of their runs. The warm Loop Current is visible as the red colors of the SST field that form a heart-shaped area in the Gulf.

How long will it be until oil reaches the Keys?
Once oil gets into the Loop Current, the 1 - 2 mph speed of the current should allow the oil to travel the 500 miles to the Florida Keys in 5 - 10 days. Portions of the Loop Current flow at speed up to 4 mph, so the fastest transport could be 4 - 5 days.

How much oil has made it into the Loop Current?
According to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA, the tongue of oil flowing southwards has, at most, "light" concentrations. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys, and most of the oil appears to be caught in a smaller counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the north side of the Loop Current. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding how much oil will get to the Keys, and we cannot rule out the possibility of an ecological disaster in the fragile Keys ecosystem.

How is the Loop Current changing?
The Loop Current has been highly chaotic and unstable over the past week, making it difficult to predict how the ocean currents near the spill will behave. According to ROFFS Ocean Fishing Service, which has done a tremendous job tracking the spill, the Loop Current surged 7 - 10 miles northward Sunday and Monday. The Loop Current has gotten more contorted since Friday, and may be ready to cut off into a clockwise-rotating Loop Current Eddy. This process occurs every 6 - 11 months, with the clockwise-rotating ring of water slowly drifting west-southwest towards Texas. The last eddy broke off ten months ago, so the Loop Current is due to shed another eddy in the next few months. The latest 1-month forecast from the U.S. Navy does not predict an eddy forming, but these forecasts are not very reliable. If a Loop Current Eddy does break off, oil getting entrained into it might orbit the center of the Gulf of Mexico for many months inside the eddy. However, this eddy will probably reattach and detach from the main Loop Current flow for at least a month following when it breaks off, so oil will continue to flow through the Keys during this initial month.

When will the flow of oil into the Loop Current shut off?
Winds over the oil spill location are expected to be light and onshore at 5 - 10 knots through Saturday. This means that the chaotic contortions of the Loop Current will primarily control how much oil gets into it, making it difficult to predict when the flow will shut off. The long range (and thus unreliable) forecast for next week from the GFS model calls for a continuation of light winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the flow of oil into the Loop Current could occur intermittently for several weeks.

Who besides the Keys are at risk next week from the Loop Current oil?
As I discussed in an earlier post, the coast of Southwest Florida from Tampa Bay to the Everglades is a "Forbidden Zone" for surface-based transport of ocean water to the coast, and is probably not at risk from this week's Loop Current oil. The northwest coast of Cuba east of Havana and the coast of Southeast Florida from the Keys to West Palm Beach are at the most risk. The western shores of the western-most Bahama Islands and the U.S. coast north of West Palm Beach northwards to Cape Hatteras are at slight risk. It would likely take ocean eddies 2 - 9 weeks to transport the oil to these locations, and the oil would probably be so dilute that ecosystem damage would probably be minor, at most. At this point, I see no reason for cancellation of vacation plans to any of the beach areas that may potentially be affected by the oil.

What is happening to the plumes of oil at depth?
Two research missions over the past week have detected substantial plumes of oil at depth, moving to the southwest. The deepest of the these plumes, near the site of the blowout at 5,000 feet depth, is in a region of slow ocean currents and has not moved much. At depths closer to the surface, the currents get stronger, and oil within a few hundred feet of the surface--if there is any--could potentially have been dragged into the Loop Current. At this point, we don't have a very good picture of how much oil is at depth and where it might be headed.

Oil spill resources
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU

The tropics
For those of you interested in a detailed look at the early season tropical weather outlook, consult the excellent wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456, who are now featured bloggers for the coming hurricane season. We have some models predicting a possible subtropical storm off the U.S. East coast next week, but this does not appear to be a significant concern for land areas at this time. More concerning is the possibility that an area of disturbed weather will develop across the Western Caribbean late next week. While wind shear will likely keep anything in the Western Caribbean from developing, several models are predicting that this disturbance may bring major flooding rains to earthquake-ravaged Haiti late next week.

I'll be back with a new post Wednesday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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northern hemishere water vapour image latest as of 1201 pm

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52214
12Z GFS a bit deeper cyclone....development begins around Monday

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868. IKE
12Z GFS @ 144 hours...



at 162 hours...

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Lake Okeechobee water dump continues despite environmental damage
May 18, 2010|By Andy Reid, Sun Sentinel
While South Florida braces for oil spill pollution potentially reaching its shores, weeks of dumping Lake Okeechobee water out to sea to protect South Florida from flooding has already created an environmental emergency to the north.

Higher-than-usual lake levels combined with safety concerns about the lake's 70-year-old dike means the damaging discharges must continue into the summer rainy season, Col. Alfred Pantano Jr., the Army Corps of Engineers' commander for Florida, told Palm Beach County officials on Monday.

In addition to wasting lake water that serves as South Florida's backup drinking water supply, dumping the lake water out to sea is already threatening to wipe out sea grasses, oyster beds, sport fish and other marine life in the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries.
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Coastal residents in Stuart and elsewhere accuse the corps of sacrificing their waterways instead of sending more Lake Okeechobee water to South Florida.

But on Tuesday, Pantano told Palm Beach County commissioners that the ability to send lake water south is limited by environmental regulations, storage capacity and logistical hang-ups.

East and west discharges remain the main routes to dump the water, and with hurricane season fast approaching, those discharges will continue, Pantano said.

"It's killing the estuaries, that's a fact," Pantano said. "We are willingly and knowingly damaging the ecosystem … because protecting the public is foremost."

Pantano was in West Palm Beach on Tuesday to give an update on the slow-moving dike-rehab project. The nearly $1 billion project is intended to protect lakeside communities from flooding and give the lake more water storage capacity.

Frustrated with delays, county commissioners have called for the corps to speed up the project. On Tuesday, they agreed to lobby Congress for more money to shorten the decades-long timetable.

They want a faster fix to avoid possible New Orleans-style flooding in lakeside communities and to stop the environmental damage along the coast.

Stormwater that flows into Lake Okeechobee from the north once naturally overflowed the lake's southern rim, slowly drifting south in sheets of water that fed the Everglades.

More than 70 years ago, as more farming and development moved onto land that used to be the Everglades, the lake was corralled by an earthen dike to contain flooding.

(Page 2 of 2)
That turned the lake into South Florida's largest retention pond, used to capture flood waters and tapped for irrigation by growers to the south and to boost drinking water supplies.

During times of drought, low lake levels can lead to stiffened watering restrictions for South Florida. When the rains return, flooding concerns prompt the environmentally damaging discharges out to sea.

Now the lake's dike, threatened by erosion, is rated as one of the nation's most at risk of a breach.
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The corps tries to keep the lake level between 12.5 feet and 15.5 feet above sea level. On Tuesday, the lake was 14.64 feet. One tropical storm can boost the lake 4 feet, so going into the summer rainy season the lake releases will have to continue to ease the strain on the dike, Pantano said.

Since 2007, contractors for the corps have built about 5 miles of a planned 22-mile stretch of reinforcing walls extending through the middle of the lake's earthen dike. The corps plans to finish the walls for the dike's southeastern rim, considered the most vulnerable, by 2013.

Beyond 2013, the corps plans to build a berm along the outside base of the dike to help control the seepage that leads to damaging erosion. That requires acquiring more land, which will be a politically touchy subject in communities with homes and businesses built alongside the dike.

Finishing fixes for the rest of the 140-mile-long dike depends on the pace of federal funding.

"There's a lot at stake here, people's lives and property," Pantano said. "We have got to assure that we achieve quality."

South Florida water managers contend that the long-term solution to Lake Okeechobee discharges and other water problems is to build more reservoirs and treatment areas to store and clean up stormwater that could be used to boost drinking water supplies and replenish the Everglades.

The South Florida Water Management District is pursuing a $536 million deal to buy 73,000 acres of farmland from U.S. Sugar Corp. that could be used to build reservoirs and treatment areas, but that deal has been stalled by the cost and legal challenges.

The Lake Okeechobee dike could have been fixed long ago if it was more of a national priority, County Commission Chairman Burt Aaronson said. Instead of sending the corps to rebuild Iraq, the country should have spent its money on projects like reinforcing Lake Okeechobee's dike, Aaronson said.

"Put those resources that are over there in our own country," Aaronson said.

Andy Reid can be reached at abreid@SunSentinel.com or 561-228-5504.



Sad that overdevelopment has lead to this. Don't understand why they just don't come up with a better solution to allow the lake to feed the Everglades.
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Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, May 19th
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
Hi jeff...those numbers u predict could be correct...hopefully it wont be another 2005 though as far as numbers
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Quoting hurricane23:
The NOAA hurricane outlook was postponed by high-level NOAA management, most likely because of the oil spill hearing conflicting with the scheduled release time/day and they were going to be stuck in DC when the event was in Miami. It will be released the 27th.


Is that official? Any link to the press release saying that?
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Sorry to be so bold...
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DATE: May 19, 2010 10:08:36 CST

*MEDIA ADVISORY* Unified Area Command to hold press briefing in Robert, La.

Key contact numbers

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401



Deepwater Horizon/BP Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

Who: U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry, BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles, MMS Regional Director of Field Operations Lars Herbst, NOAA Scientific Support Coordinator Charlie Henry.

What: Unified Area Command to update media on ongoing operations regarding Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill response efforts and progress.

Where: The entrance location for press conferences at the Shell Robert Training and Conference Center has changed. Members of the media will enter the facility from the back gate. For a map to the back gate, click here. The address is 23260 Shell Lane in Robert, La., 70455-1928. A Unified Area Command joint information center representative will be at the gate at 12:30 p.m., to escort media.

When: 2:00 p.m. CDT. The call-in number for press unable to attend: 1-888-957-9867. International callers use 1-(312)-470-7364. Password – RESPONSE (73776673).

Live broadcast may be available on the Digital Video Information Distribution System (DVIDS) hub, which can be accessed at www.dvidshub.net. To see the live broadcast or download video of the conference, media must register with DVIDS no later than 1:45 p.m. This can be done on the DVIDS Web site or by calling (678) 421-6612.

For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Blog is coding!


I'd post an Energizer Bunny pic or video, however, I get banned almost every time!!!
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NWS Dallas Ft Worth, TX Severe Weather Briefing for 5-19-10 @10:30AM:

Link
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Quoting Patrap:


Like anything else, it takes a catestrophic event to make changes. Palm Beach County and Lake Okeechobee have been coasting since the 1940s, as there has been no major westbound storm to strike here beyond that time. Over 60 years. That's a very long time considering the area's history prior to then.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52214

WTIO32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 11.3N 53.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 53.5E
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUL, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AS
EVIDENCED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INCLUDING A 190944Z
TRMM AND A 191020Z AMSU-B PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM A NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02A IS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS SHOWN ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE RELATIVELY
COOLER GULF OF ADEN AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN WIDE DISAGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS
BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AND GFS TO THE WEST. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
182221Z MAY 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 182230).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
01B (LAILA) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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852. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


good eye. i see the same thing, although no expert. happy cane season, IKE!


Back at cha!
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getting warm
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The thing concerning me about the Gulf this summer is that the loop current is likely to spin off a warm water eddie in late June or July. It is cyclical, but the last spin off of a loop current eddie was more than 6-months ago. We'll be due for another to spin off by July.

This pool of very warm water is a heat engine for hurricanes. We don't need it to be drifting slowly West under Louisiana and Texas during the height of hurricane season.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita both intensified in the Gulf during 2005 after running over a deep warm-water eddie spun off from the loop current.

For an idea of how much a warm eddie can cause a hurricane to suddenly intensify... consider Hurricane Opal. Opal ran over a warm-water eddy and strengthened from Cat-1 to Cat-4 in just 14 hours before making landfall.

Regardless of numbers, I'm more concerned about nature creating a little turbo-booster in the Gulf South of Texas & Louisiana just in time for the July-September height of hurricane season.
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County commissioners urged the Corps on Tuesday to fix the 143-mile-long dike faster. The project isn't expected to be completed until 2022.

Commission Chairman Burt Aaronson questioned why the repairs are taking so long.

The answer: the project's $1 billion cost.



Best call the Corps of engineers NOLA office with dat one.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125509
Army Corps on edge as Lake O fills with rain and strains against its feeble dike

By Jennifer Sorentrue Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Updated: 11:39 p.m. Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Posted: 6:55 p.m. Tuesday, May 18, 2010

WEST PALM BEACH — The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said Tuesday it has no choice but to destroy fragile estuaries around Lake Okeechobee to keep residents living around its eroded dike safe.

In a blunt talk with Palm Beach County commissioners, Colonel Alfred Pantano said water in the lake has reached a level that requires the corps to dump millions of gallons a day out or risk a dike breach should a hurricane hit South Florida.

The polluted lake water is causing severe damage to the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie rivers, the lake's main drainage channels, said Pantano, commander of the Corps' Jacksonville District.

"Protecting people is our first priority, to the point we are discharging water," Pantano said. "We are willingly and knowingly damaging the ecosystem. The last thing I want to do is cause harm to it, but I have to.

On Tuesday, the lake measured 14.64 feet - about two feet higher than this time last year, Pantano said.

The Corps tries to keep the lake between 12.5 and 15.5 feet, a height at which the corps has seen evidence of water seeping through the earthen dike, Pantano said.

At 18.5 feet, there is a 45 percent chance of a levee breach, the Corps said. If the lake reaches 21 feet, a failure is "certain."

As the rainy season began this month and hurricane season nears, the Corps has stepped up releases to keep the lake at a safe level, Pantano said.

County commissioners urged the Corps on Tuesday to fix the 143-mile-long dike faster. The project isn't expected to be completed until 2022.

Commission Chairman Burt Aaronson questioned why the repairs are taking so long.

The answer: the project's $1 billion cost.

A 2006 study by engineering experts hired by the South Florida Water Management District suggested that the dike, the oldest parts of which were built in the 1930s, has been deteriorating for years because of water pressure from the lake. The report said the condition of the dike poses "a grave and imminent danger to the people and the environment of South Florida."

"The government has the ability to go ahead and do things when we want to do something in a hurry," Aaronson said. "This is an emergency for Palm Beach County and I don't personally think that every effort has been made since the Katrina era… Why can't we do it faster? We go over to Iraq and we are able to build their infrastructure faster. Why can't we put those resources that are over there over here in our own country?"

Commissioner Shelley Vana called the fresh water releases a "catastrophe" and said she wanted to make sure the county was doing "everything possible" to keep residents living around the dike safe.

"I don't want to ever say that we have left any stone unturned," Vana said.


A 2006 study suggested that the Herbert Hoover Dike has been deteriorating for years because of water pressure from the lake.
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846. IKE
I picked 13-7-4 about 3 months ago. I'll stick with it. Probably too low.
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If anyone is interested in following tornadodude in his chasing today, he is currently in Norman getting ready for today's outbreak.
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I posted the number of storms Im predicting for this season already...16 8 4...anyone else want to share theirs? I wonder what NOAA will say in thier update? I think Dr Gray comes out with his June 2nd
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Quoting StormChaser81:


When did Texas fall into the Pacific? =)


LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think he ment this

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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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Quoting StormChaser81:


When did Texas fall into the Pacific? =)


LOL

Juggling work and other stuff...my bad

Fixed.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Public Severe Weather Outlook
Print Version

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 190953
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-191800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PRIMARILY OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER
PRIMARILY OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS TRANSPORTED A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE INCREASING WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL INCLUDE A THREAT OF NOT ONLY TORNADOES BUT
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT TORNADOES COULD BECOME STRONG AND THE
HAIL VERY LARGE WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS AND THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME
HOURS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..HALES.. 05/19/2010

$$
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125509
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
New AOI in the EPAC.



When did Texas fall into the Pacific? =)
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New AOI in the EPAC.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
morning everyone....If a La Nina forms during the peak of hurricane season how could that affect hurricane numbers and their potential tracks?? Thanks for your input!!
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Morning gang!

Looks kind of slow here on the blog this morning!

Looking forward to some afternoon T-Storms here in extreme SeTx.
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Quoting StormChaser81:
Oviedo Funnel Cloud May 18, 2010



Wow...those look awesome!
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Elk City to Oklahoma City/Norman area looks to be in the danger zone today. Skies are clearing and temps should rise fast in western Oklahoma under SSE winds with near 70 degree dewpoints. Also, these tornadoes could be in a HP enviroment as the atmosphere is juiced this this area. Supercells should begin to develope from Lawton to Elk City at about 2:30pm to 3pm.

The NWS Norman Severe Weather Graphic-cast at 9:50AM CDT:

Link
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perhaps the loop current followed by the Gulf Stream will funnel the oil all the way back to the UK!Link This disaster off Shetland a few years ago was mitigated by the massive storm and the lighter crude being carried by the tanker - it dispersed very quickly.
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Oviedo Funnel Cloud May 18, 2010

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more earthquakes yesterday, one in Peru, one in calif near baja where there was one before recently, and
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Quoting indianrivguy:
and in today's "headlines"



Sebastian River High School student Coral Pearce, 15, shaved her head last weekend and donated the 10-inch locks to help sop up the spill. She also buzzed the words “No Oil” into the remaining hair on the back of her head to let people know where she stands when it comes to ecology.


No offense, but I will start believing people like this when they start walking everywhere and dont buy anything in stores and grow thier own food. I understand the sintiment here but most people on the gulf coast still want oil drilling according to what I have read.
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822. DEKRE
Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning.

Amazing animations of the GOM surface on ROFFS.

pressure question:
Should the oil in the mile vertical pipe that is 1/5 lighter than water, shoot up 1/5 of a mile above the ocean surface before pressure is equalized?



It would be 1/4 mile. the weight is 0.8 times that of water so the column would be 1/0.8 times that of water - at 1/2 the weight, it would be twice as high
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Gulf of Mexico's SST 2010-0518
Are these higher temperatures showing the oil slick?

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820. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory NUMBER ONE
DEPRESSION ARB01-2010
14:30 PM IST May 19 2010
=======================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southwest Arabian Sea off Somalia coast and lays centered near 10.5N 54.0E, or about 400 kms off Alulu, Somalia. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northwesterly direction towards the Gulf of Aden during the next 2-3 days.

Convective clods in association with the system has organized during the past 24 hours. The estimated dvorak intensity is T1.5. The 3 minute sustained winds is 25 knots. Broken intense to very intense convection is seen over west Arabian Sea between 8.0N to 11.0N and west of 56.0E.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.