Clouds, unstable Loop Current making oil spill prediction difficult

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:48 PM GMT on May 18, 2010

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It's cloudy over the Gulf of Mexico today, so it is difficult to tell how far into the Loop Current the Deepwater Horizon oil has penetrated using visible satellite imagery. Satellite imagery yesterday from NASA's MODIS instrument confirmed that a tongue of oil moved southeast from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and entered the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current. However, Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery from the European Envisat satellite posted at ROFFS Ocean Forecasting Service shows that while some of the tongue of oil that entered the Loop Current appears to be circulating southwards towards the Florida Keys, perhaps 80% of the oil in this tongue is caught in a counter-clockwise circulating eddy along the north side of the Loop Current. This oil may eventually circulate around and enter the Loop Current, but not for at least three days.


Figure 1. Oil spill forecast for this Thursday night as simulated by the 6pm EDT Monday May 17 runs of the Navy Gulf of Mexico HYCOM nowcast/forecast system and the Global HYCOM + NCODA Analysis from the HYCOM Consortium. See the University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group website for more information. There are considerable differences between the two models, due in part to the fact that they have much different depictions of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean currents at the beginning of their runs. The warm Loop Current is visible as the red colors of the SST field that form a heart-shaped area in the Gulf.

How long will it be until oil reaches the Keys?
Once oil gets into the Loop Current, the 1 - 2 mph speed of the current should allow the oil to travel the 500 miles to the Florida Keys in 5 - 10 days. Portions of the Loop Current flow at speed up to 4 mph, so the fastest transport could be 4 - 5 days.

How much oil has made it into the Loop Current?
According to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA, the tongue of oil flowing southwards has, at most, "light" concentrations. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys, and most of the oil appears to be caught in a smaller counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the north side of the Loop Current. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding how much oil will get to the Keys, and we cannot rule out the possibility of an ecological disaster in the fragile Keys ecosystem.

How is the Loop Current changing?
The Loop Current has been highly chaotic and unstable over the past week, making it difficult to predict how the ocean currents near the spill will behave. According to ROFFS Ocean Fishing Service, which has done a tremendous job tracking the spill, the Loop Current surged 7 - 10 miles northward Sunday and Monday. The Loop Current has gotten more contorted since Friday, and may be ready to cut off into a clockwise-rotating Loop Current Eddy. This process occurs every 6 - 11 months, with the clockwise-rotating ring of water slowly drifting west-southwest towards Texas. The last eddy broke off ten months ago, so the Loop Current is due to shed another eddy in the next few months. The latest 1-month forecast from the U.S. Navy does not predict an eddy forming, but these forecasts are not very reliable. If a Loop Current Eddy does break off, oil getting entrained into it might orbit the center of the Gulf of Mexico for many months inside the eddy. However, this eddy will probably reattach and detach from the main Loop Current flow for at least a month following when it breaks off, so oil will continue to flow through the Keys during this initial month.

When will the flow of oil into the Loop Current shut off?
Winds over the oil spill location are expected to be light and onshore at 5 - 10 knots through Saturday. This means that the chaotic contortions of the Loop Current will primarily control how much oil gets into it, making it difficult to predict when the flow will shut off. The long range (and thus unreliable) forecast for next week from the GFS model calls for a continuation of light winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the flow of oil into the Loop Current could occur intermittently for several weeks.

Who besides the Keys are at risk next week from the Loop Current oil?
As I discussed in an earlier post, the coast of Southwest Florida from Tampa Bay to the Everglades is a "Forbidden Zone" for surface-based transport of ocean water to the coast, and is probably not at risk from this week's Loop Current oil. The northwest coast of Cuba east of Havana and the coast of Southeast Florida from the Keys to West Palm Beach are at the most risk. The western shores of the western-most Bahama Islands and the U.S. coast north of West Palm Beach northwards to Cape Hatteras are at slight risk. It would likely take ocean eddies 2 - 9 weeks to transport the oil to these locations, and the oil would probably be so dilute that ecosystem damage would probably be minor, at most. At this point, I see no reason for cancellation of vacation plans to any of the beach areas that may potentially be affected by the oil.

What is happening to the plumes of oil at depth?
Two research missions over the past week have detected substantial plumes of oil at depth, moving to the southwest. The deepest of the these plumes, near the site of the blowout at 5,000 feet depth, is in a region of slow ocean currents and has not moved much. At depths closer to the surface, the currents get stronger, and oil within a few hundred feet of the surface--if there is any--could potentially have been dragged into the Loop Current. At this point, we don't have a very good picture of how much oil is at depth and where it might be headed.

Oil spill resources
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU

The tropics
For those of you interested in a detailed look at the early season tropical weather outlook, consult the excellent wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456, who are now featured bloggers for the coming hurricane season. We have some models predicting a possible subtropical storm off the U.S. East coast next week, but this does not appear to be a significant concern for land areas at this time. More concerning is the possibility that an area of disturbed weather will develop across the Western Caribbean late next week. While wind shear will likely keep anything in the Western Caribbean from developing, several models are predicting that this disturbance may bring major flooding rains to earthquake-ravaged Haiti late next week.

I'll be back with a new post Wednesday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting snotly:


I personally never trust the CMC model. It is always overly aggressive with low pressure formation, however, it is a good model to watch for location of those lows once they do indeed develop.


Agreed. However, it is closer to siding with the other camp on the resolve of the Highs.
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Also notice that we have no trough-like pattern, which one would expect for late May.

The storms over the CONUS go straight into Canada due to the blocking high. It seems the GFS uses as an existing cold front to kick the system out to sea. Other than that, there appears to be no frontal troughs for a while.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
CMC however, is showing the high coming down like a hammer at the end of the run.



I personally never trust the CMC model. It is always overly aggressive with low pressure formation, however, it is a good model to watch for location of those lows once they do indeed develop.
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..looks like the Carolina's could be involved .

Hmmm, I wunder.?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764
Quoting hydrus:
They changed the outlook from moderate to high, and there is still a lot of damage in that area. Could that make today.s chase more difficult or dangerous?


I wonder why they changed it? I guess better resolution with the latest model forecasts and the outflow boundaries set up by this mornings mesoscale convective system.
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CMC however, is showing the high coming down like a hammer at the end of the run.

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Quoting Levi32:


Great consensus for development, but the eventual track of the Bahamas low is a raging battle right now, with the GFS and CMC kicking it northeast and the ECMWF and NOGAPS taking it west.


Not really, the CMC only goes out to 144 hrs so we cant 100% tell. Also it appears more aggressive than the GFS with the bridging high.

So I would say the GFS is the model that is poking its head above the ground.

The reason why the models will have trouble agreeing on track is because these type of systems are wonderers, since they are trapped. Unlike a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Levi32:


Great consensus for development, but the eventual track of the Bahamas low is a raging battle right now, with the GFS and CMC kicking it northeast and the ECMWF and NOGAPS taking it west.


Very different pictures painted by the 2 camps with respect to the High in the NE & Azores.
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Quoting Kearn:


Glenn Beck wonders how the journalists even tie their shoes in the morning...


He also wonders what the word journalism means.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


what does that mean for the forecast, that high?


It means unless the trough associated with the hybrid low isn't strong enough the SW Caribbean system may eventually turn back NW late in the model cycles. The GFS turns it back west quicker because it does not foresee a trough or hybrid system.

My thinking is that the system will deviate some but maintain a NE or N course during the next 7 days. Beyond that, the possibility is real it turns back NW. But anything beyond 7 days is speculation.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
We have some nice model consensus going on here.

12Z CMC....it shows the hybrid low, the bridge to its north and the SW Caribbean Low.

The CMC did not originally think development would take place in the Caribbean but has a more fluent genesis and track.



Great consensus for development, but the eventual track of the Bahamas low is a raging battle right now, with the GFS and CMC kicking it northeast and the ECMWF and NOGAPS taking it west.
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Quoting Kearn:


Glenn Beck wonders how the journalists even tie their shoes in the morning...
Who is Glen Beck?
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Both of you stay safe. The projected outlook for this afternoon, to say the least, is grim.

You are approved to go live at 6:15 PM CDT today.

Best wishes and God speed...

Oz---
They changed the outlook from moderate to high, and there is still a lot of damage in that area. Could that make today.s chase more difficult or dangerous?
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We have some nice model consensus going on here.

12Z CMC....it shows the hybrid low, the bridge to its north and the SW Caribbean Low.

The CMC did not originally think development would take place in the Caribbean but has a more fluent genesis and track.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I hope you know what your doing....



Yeah,

we should be good, just waiting to meet up with the other chasers now
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901. Kearn
Quoting Patrap:
Were also in the NY times everyday as well..


Glenn Beck wonders how the journalists even tie their shoes in the morning...
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Quoting Patrap:
Joe B. had "Mayhem" in yesterdays paragraph.

Joe Likes a Big room


Try actually reading one of his blogs or watching one of his videos sometime. It might actually make sense to you. If you did read his post yesterday then you pay for the Accuweather Pro website, which says a lot about how much you really hate them.
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I hope you know what your doing....
...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Joe B. had "Mayhem" in yesterdays paragraph.

Joe Likes a Big room...

..ciao
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764
897. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Bastardi isn't talking about the Caribbean system. By 180 hours the GFS has already thrown the Bahamas system out the window to the northeast. Bastardi is talking about the solution depicted by the ECMWF, which gets the trough-split stuck under the blocking ridge building into New England next week, which would cause it to retrograde slowly westward towards the SE US.

With the big surface high, he was referring to the high being way up at 40N, with stronger easterlies than normal farther north in the western Atlantic, and slower to the south, which favors the build-up of heat and lowers pressures in the SW Atlantic.


Thanks. I just wasn't sure where he was coming up with a SE USA threat.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


We are in Norman right now (SE side of Oklahoma City)

SPC AC 191630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND N TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
NE CO UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z THU AS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SSW INTO NM SWEEPS E INTO
CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX. BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ON
S SIDE OF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS...ATOP MODERATE SSWLY
LLJ. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE FROM TX PANHANDLE SFC
LOW SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH MOVEMENT OFFSET
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. S OF THE FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD WITH LLJ.

...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY WED...
OVERNIGHT OK MCS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONTINUES GENERALLY ESE
INTO NW AR EARLY THIS AFTN. ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP W/E
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS.

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH NM UPR TROUGH
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR INTERSECTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD-MOVING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER WRN OK. A
BIT LATER...SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND SWD ON THE TROUGH/DRY
LINE INTO NW TX...AND EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK.

THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SETUP APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.

WITH THE LLJ LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES
AND THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NM TROUGH...EXPECT THE OK/N TX
STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT HI LVL FLOW...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
INTO AR BY EARLY WED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
SFC HEATING ALONG/S AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM
SRN PLNS LOW MAY SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX SE TO
THE CNTRL GULF CST TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BECOMING LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME WEAK CIN OVER REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY/ PW WILL BE
PRESENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/ PERSISTENCE.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2010
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Quoting tornadodude:
hey all!

Just got some internet back, we are in Norman, Oklahoma right now trying to prepare for today's chase. We are in a parking lot with another chaser right now. We will probably meet up with Chase Team Denmark and TornadoVideos.net like we did yesterday. We exchanged numbers and will probably meet up.

Looks like just to the SW of Oklahoma City is where the storms will probably initiate.

We did capture two tornadoes on video yesterday and also a clockwise rotating funnel cloud


Both of you stay safe. The projected outlook for this afternoon, to say the least, is grim.

You are approved to go live at 6:15 PM CDT today.

Best wishes and God speed...

Oz---
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Development takes place as early as this weekend....but look at that Azores High

12Z GFS Ensembles +48 hrs

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
XtremeHurricanes.com Update:

tornadodude has requested to go live on the web site tonight, and I agree.

WE WILL GO LIVE AT 6:15 CDT

Oz---out.
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NHC: surface trough near the Bahamas tomorrow, becoming a non-frontal low on Saturday.

24 hours:



72 hours:

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Were also in the NY times everyday as well..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764
Quoting Weather456:
NOGAPS 12Z 66 hrs has the hyrbid low east of the Bahamas

NOGAPS 12Z 168 hrs, low has gone, now SW Caribbean low dominates

The timing of the SW Caribbean low will be dertimed by the hybrid genesis to the north.

It appears the models may trend back east, late in their cycles since ridging may take over once the hybrid low dies or move into SE USA or goes out to sea.



Interesting that the NOGAPS now shows the hybrid low well, and moves it towards the SE US like the European. There is a big model battle going on here.

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889. Kearn
Holy crud, Doctor Masters, you're on CNN!

The forecast cited by Nelson assumes the Loop Current's persistence and does not take into account dispersion and evaporation from the oil spill, CNN meteorologist Sean Morris said. It remains to be seen how much oil has entered the current. In addition, he said, "the Loop Current is much warmer than surrounding water, which would cause oil to evaporate at a greater rate than it is evaporating near the source of the spill."

Also Tuesday, NOAA shut down fishing in a larger part of the Gulf over which the federal government has jurisdiction: a total of 45,728 square miles, which is 19 percent of the Gulf, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said.

An undersea oil well has been gushing an estimated 5,000 barrels of oil a day (210,000 gallons) into the Gulf since late April, when the drill rig Deepwater Horizon blew up and sank about 40 miles off Louisiana. Some estimates have put the amount of oil spewing from the well far higher.

Eleven workers are missing and presumed dead after the explosion and sinking, and the cause has not been determined.

Samples taken by scientists offshore have raised concerns that large plumes of oil are settling below the surface. But federal officials said the results have not been fully analyzed.

Some of the oil has washed ashore on the Louisiana coast. The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency said Tuesday that the slick was 50 miles off the Mississippi coast.

Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters said Tuesday that based on satellite imagery, "the oil is definitely in the Loop Current. ... The only question is how much oil made it in."

Others, including Lubchenco, said the oil was poised to enter the current Tuesday but had not yet done so. Once it does, scientists say it could reach Florida in as little as four and as many as 10 days.
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
NOGAPS 12Z 66 hrs has the hyrbid low east of the Bahamas

NOGAPS 12Z 180 hrs, low has gone, now SW Caribbean low dominates

The timing of the SW Caribbean low will be dertimed by the hybrid genesis to the north.

It appears the models may trend back west, late in their cycles since ridging may take over once the hybrid low dies or move into SE USA or goes out to sea.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:
Looks like a high to it's north is building in on that GFS run at 180 hours. Is this what Bastardi is thinking, for it affecting the SE USA, Memorial Day week?


Bastardi isn't talking about the Caribbean system. By 180 hours the GFS has already thrown the Bahamas system out the window to the northeast. Bastardi is talking about the solution depicted by the ECMWF, which gets the trough-split stuck under the blocking ridge building into New England next week, which would cause it to retrograde slowly westward towards the SE US.

With the big surface high, he was referring to the high being way up at 40N, with stronger easterlies than normal farther north in the western Atlantic, and slower to the south, which favors the build-up of heat and lowers pressures in the SW Atlantic.
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Hi Storm W,, read your blog from last night..very informative!! seems all the parameters are coming together for a busy season.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
884. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
northern hemishere water vapour image latest as of 1201 pm



Check out what's coming off SA into the EPAC.. nic blob of purple, that tropical wave..it's only rival for most water vapor is LAILA on the other side of the world. Upper level divergence is 50, lower convergence 40. Shear may be a struggle it's 10-20kts & increasing slightly. ITCZ is still a touch south in the EPAC for optimum conditions.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38213
Quoting IKE:
Looks like a high to it's north is building in on that GFS run at 180 hours. Is this what Bastardi is thinking, for it affecting the SE USA, Memorial Day week?


I gotta say, Bastardi completely nailed the 2010 winter forecast, maybe he's on to someting with the storm.
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Thanks, Keeper.

That latest water vapor loop says it all. Still too much shear over the Caribbean for tropical development. There is a large swath of dry air moving into the Gulf for the remainder of the week.

It looks like the gulf will just keep getting warmer with clear skies for the next few days.
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There is one fundamental reason why the GFS takes it back NW and the other models takes it NE.

Have you notice that the GFS does not develop a hybrid system in the SW Atlantic. It kicks the sucker out to sea and replaces it with a ridge. Conversely, the other models show a trough secluded over the SW Atlantic associated with the hybrid system, which promotes the NE motion early in the GFS cycle and on the other models.

The GFS is simply responding to the fact that there will be no trough to allow the SW Carib system to continue northeast because it does not feel a trough will be there. The other models do.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:


The 6Z run had it stopping it's NE movement and headed back west or WNW.

This one looks to be doing the same...at 180 hours....



It looks like the high is too far south for any subtropical system to form, it takes the whole energy as a cold core low and moves it northeast towards the Azores. As for the Carribean storm, as it catches the high to the north, it breaks from the pulling of the trough and heads west, at least from what I can see.
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This will be a good test of the new GFS (pre13a) as it does not close off the lows in the Carribean and Atlantic. It is currently in testing and the output is available sporatically and only the 00Z run.


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876. IKE
Looks like a high to it's north is building in on that GFS run at 180 hours. Is this what Bastardi is thinking, for it affecting the SE USA, Memorial Day week?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tornadodude:
hey all!

Just got some internet back, we are in Norman, Oklahoma right now trying to prepare for today's chase. We are in a parking lot with another chaser right now. We will probably meet up with Chase Team Denmark and TornadoVideos.net like we did yesterday. We exchanged numbers and will probably meet up.

Looks like just to the SW of Oklahoma City is where the storms will probably initiate.

We did capture two tornadoes on video yesterday and also a clockwise rotating funnel cloud


Rock & Roll TD! Keep up the good work...stay safe.
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874. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


Carrib feature looks headed generally ne ... but I wonder if that will last? is it tracking toward the L to its ne?

next week might very well be the week.


The 6Z run had it stopping it's NE movement and headed back west or WNW.

This one looks to be doing the same...at 180 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tornadodude:
hey all!

Just got some internet back, we are in Norman, Oklahoma right now trying to prepare for today's chase. We are in a parking lot with another chaser right now. We will probably meet up with Chase Team Denmark and TornadoVideos.net like we did yesterday. We exchanged numbers and will probably meet up.

Looks like just to the SW of Oklahoma City is where the storms will probably initiate.

We did capture two tornadoes on video yesterday and also a clockwise rotating funnel cloud


Cool. Have fun Matt. And be careful.
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hey all!

Just got some internet back, we are in Norman, Oklahoma right now trying to prepare for today's chase. We are in a parking lot with another chaser right now. We will probably meet up with Chase Team Denmark and TornadoVideos.net like we did yesterday. We exchanged numbers and will probably meet up.

Looks like just to the SW of Oklahoma City is where the storms will probably initiate.

We did capture two tornadoes on video yesterday and also a clockwise rotating funnel cloud
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northern hemishere water vapour image latest as of 1201 pm

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.