Oil spill headed towards the Loop Current

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:01 PM GMT on May 17, 2010

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Recent satellite imagery and flight over-passes of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill confirm that a surface tendril of oil has become entrained into a southward-moving current that threatens to pull oil into the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current late this week. The Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and then along the west side of the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. Once oil gets into the Loop Current, the 1 - 2 mph speed of the current should allow the oil to travel the 500 miles to the Florida Keys in 10 - 20 days. Portions of the Loop Current flow at speed up to 4 mph, so the transport could be faster.

Why is oil getting close to the Loop Current?
The winds over the oil spill location are offshore out of the northwest today, and offshore winds will continue intermittently through Wednesday, helping push the oil southwards towards the Loop Current. However, the major reason oil is moving southwards is because of the instability of the currents in the Gulf of Mexico. The Loop Current is not a stable feature, and tends to surge northwards and southwards in a chaotic fashion, and in response to changes in the prevailing winds. Over the past week, chaotic behavior of the Loop Current and a clockwise-rotating eddy just to its north, just south of the oil spill location, have combined to bring a current of southward-moving surface water to the oil spill location. As strong on-shore winds from the southeast slackened this past weekend, oil has been drawn southward towards the Loop Current. An examination of the latest NOAA trajectory forecasts and surface current forecasts reveals the possibility that this tendril of southward-moving oil could make it into the Loop Current late this week. It is highly uncertain how much oil might make it into the Loop Current, or how diluted it might get on its voyage to the Florida Keys next week. Southeast to east winds of 10 - 15 knots are expected to develop late this week and extend into early next week, which may be strong enough to impose a surface current that will prevent oil from getting into the Loop Current this month. I predict a 30% chance that oil will make it into the Loop Current in the next two weeks.


Figure 1. Forecast made at 8pm EDT Sunday May 16, 2010, of the Gulf of Mexico currents by NOAA's HYCOM model. A persistent southward flowing surface current is predicted to occur this week between the oil spill location (red dot) and the Loop Current. Image credit: NOAA.

Likely areas of impact once oil gets into the Loop Current
Based on a study of 194 floating probes released into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico during a 1-year study in the 1990s (Figure 2), the west coast of Florida from Tampa Bay southwards to the Everglades is at minimal risk of receiving oil from surface currents. There is a "forbidden zone" off the southwest Florida coast where the shape of the coast, bottom configuration, and prevailing winds all act to create upwelling and surface currents that tend to take water away from the coast. This study implies that the greatest risk of land impacts by surface oil caught in the Loop Current is along the ocean side of the Florida Keys, and along the coast of Southeast Florida from Miami to West Palm Beach. Eddies breaking away from the Gulf Stream would also likely bring oil to northwest Cuba, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast as far north as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, though at lesser concentrations. Southwest Florida cannot rest entirely, though--the "forbidden zone" is only true for surface waters, and there is onshore flow below the surface. Since recent ship measurements have detected substantial plumes of oil beneath the surface, southwest Florida might be at risk if one of these plumes gets entrained into the Loop Current. These subsurface plumes were also detected by current probes launched into the oil spill on May 8 by one of NOAA's hurricane hunter aircraft, according to one scientist I spoke to at last week's AMS hurricane conference. There are plans for the Hurricane Hunters to go out again tomorrow and drop more probes into the spill to attempt to get a better handle on where the oil is and where the currents are taking it.


Figure 2. Paths of 194 floating probes released into the yellow-outlined area in the northeast Gulf of Mexico between February 1996 and February 1997 as part of a study by the Mineral Management Service (MMS). The probes were all launched into waters with depth between 20 and 60 meters. Image credit: Yang, H., R.H. Weisberga, P.P. Niilerb, W. Sturgesc, and W. Johnson, 1999, Lagrangian circulation and forbidden zone on the West Florida Shelf, Continental Shelf Research Volume 19, Issue 9, July 1999, Pages 1221-1245 doi:10.1016/S0278-4343(99)00021-7

When will a Loop Current eddy break off?
Every 6 - 11 months, the looped portion of the Loop Current cuts off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water that then slowly drifts west-southwest towards Texas. When one of these rings breaks off at the peak of hurricane season, it provides a source of heat energy capable of providing fuel for rapid intensification of any hurricanes that might cross over. The Loop Current is not predicted to shed an ring over the next month, as predicted by the latest 1-month forecast from the U.S. Navy. However, the last eddy broke off in July of 2009, ten month ago, and it is unusual for the Loop Current to go more than eleven months without shedding an eddy. I expect we'll see the Loop Current shed an eddy in July or August, just in time to pose the maximum threat for hurricane season. According to an interesting February 2004 article published by offshore-engineer.com, reliable forecasts of these currents and eddies are not available yet. Keep in mind that surface currents are largely driven by winds, and wind forecasts are not reliable out more than about 10 days.

References
Yang, H., R.H. Weisberga, P.P. Niilerb, W. Sturgesc, and W. Johnson, 1999, Lagrangian circulation and forbidden zone on the West Florida Shelf, Continental Shelf Research Volume 19, Issue 9, July 1999, Pages 1221-1245 doi:10.1016/S0278-4343(99)00021-7.

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thanks for explaining it weather456!
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ECMWF 12z out to 144hrs suggesting development in the southern Caribbean.

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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Weather456---

So this area in the Carrib is a surface trof?

And the probs for development would be really low right?


correct. My forecast calls for it to slowly drift west into the Yucatan, with much of the convection remaining east of the center due to 50 knots of upper winds. It actually gets into the Southern GOM in a confluent (stable) zone, with much of the convection left over the Yucatan/NW Caribbean. this time frame is 1-3 days.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting stormhank:
afternoon all...i read a prediction that the west pac. was going to have near normal season..so would that imply another reason our basin will be more active? Not sure if one basin is normal does that mean others will be active or vice versa? Any one with input is appreciated and thanks !!!


Well when you get a La Nina going in the Pacific it limits tropical activity in that part of the world as the cold water promotes net subsidence. All those basins should be normal to below normal, which leaves the Indian Ocean and Atlantic as the primary focus regions for heat and upward motion with their warm water. Although net worldwide tropical activity will probably remain below normal this year, the atmosphere is starting to play catchup, and the Atlantic looks to be the basin that picks up most of the slack this year, as it currently has the most heat buildup relative to normal.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
179. Skyepony (Mod)
I still think the EPAC (between ATL & PAC) has best chance of forming something this week, better than expected out there right now. (click pic for loop) & That big T-wave that hit SA, that stepping off this week looks promising too.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
afternoon all...i read a prediction that the west pac. was going to have near normal season..so would that imply another reason our basin will be more active? Not sure if one basin is normal does that mean others will be active or vice versa? Any one with input is appreciated and thanks !!!
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Quoting twhcracker:


you sound awful poetic for a weatherman HAHA


lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Weather456---

So this area in the Carrib is a surface trof?

And the probs for development would be really low right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The oil is not in the loop current: theres factors that the oil must over come to get into the loop current.
1st. The loop current is pushing little currents off all around it self forcing the oil away.
2nd. The loop current water level is higher than the surrounding GOM.
3rd. It has to really get entrained to make a huge impact. The loop current has so much water movement it will weather the oil very quickly (Tarballs)
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah I feel ya, there is a MD farther south, we will probably just hang out in the panhandle as tomorrow and wednesday look to be big days in that area

UPDATE on #168 post, hot off the SPC PRESS!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Try the SPC page for something tangible.

Its what they do.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129088
Quoting Bordonaro:

There was no recent update. NWS Amarillo, TX is real good about issuing updates on convective issues, due to the high likelihood of crazy weather in the TX panhandle.


yeah I feel ya, there is a MD farther south, we will probably just hang out in the panhandle as tomorrow and wednesday look to be big days in that area
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
170. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
Like a a fleet of ships sailing to one tune, these cumulonimbus clouds were aligned in such away that it indicated they were forming along a surface trough of low pressure. High upper winds (white arrow) blew across the thunderheads so their tops formed contrails and/or anvils that stretched in the direction of the upper winds.



Further upper divergence led to this....


nice
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6154
Quoting Weather456:
Like a a fleet of ships sailing to one tune, these cumulonimbus clouds were aligned in such away that it indicated they were forming along a surface trough of low pressure. High upper winds (white arrow) blew across the thunderheads so their tops formed contrails and/or anvils that stretched in the direction of the upper winds.



Further upper divergence led to this....



you sound awful poetic for a weatherman HAHA
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Quoting tornadodude:


it's a little old, but thanks Bord!

T-DUDE, HOT OFF THE PRESS:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX AND SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171819Z - 171945Z

TCU/CBS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU OF SW
TX NWD INTO SE NM ALONG THE GUADALUPE AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY GROW INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

LLVL SELYS HAVE MAINTAINED/TRANSPORTED A VERY MOIST AIR MASS NWWD
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LWR/MID-60S DEW POINTS ARE COMMON.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.8-8.0 DEG C/KM ATOP THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG. CONTINUED WARMING
ON THE LWR PLAINS WILL ERASE EARLY AFTN INHIBITION AND THERE WILL BE
INCREASED THREATS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS TO SURVIVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO SERN NM AND TRANSPECOS REGION OF SW TX BY
MID/LATE AFTN. 0-6KM SHEAR WAS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMPENSATE AND VERY
LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY
CAN LATCH ONTO THE STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN NM LATER THIS
AFTN.

..RACY.. 05/17/2010

Looks like you've been praying to find a tornado, here ya' go!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Trying to get the weather section of our website ready for hurricane/storm chasing season:

Link

Please WUmail me links or suggestions or go there and register to be able to submit links yourself. Hopefully it can become one more good resource for everyone. Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
oh TampaSpin how your doing sir.


Doing ok......just wish things in the world looked more positive as it seems at every front things look bleek in many cases. Not wanting to be a downer but, i am a realist.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Like a a fleet of ships sailing to one tune, these cumulonimbus clouds were aligned in such away that it indicated they were forming along a surface trough of low pressure. High upper winds (white arrow) blew across the thunderheads so their tops formed contrails and/or anvils that stretched in the direction of the upper winds.



Further upper divergence led to this....

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting TampaSpin:


Reed its gonna be a long season with this attitude already. Just try to be more self-controlled as i am trying likewise.


Attitude? What attitude, I was just analyzing why the storm would have a hard time transitioning because it would be moving to cooler waters. I'm sorry if I brought up adrian, ut stuck up weaher scholars annoy me because thy think they know everything.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7415
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Pinatubo blew its top when a typhoon was bearing down on the volcano. I wonder how much SO2 and ash was washed out, and how much more would have made it into the upper atmosphere had the weather been fair.

Pinatubo was shooting ash/SO2 up to 50,000 feet for quite a while, right up into the stratosphere.

While the typhoon struck, a good part of the ash/SO2 was washed down to the surface, until the typhoon passed. Then Pinatubo went back to shooting ash up to over 50,000 ft at times.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting lickitysplit:
sounds like the oil is in the loop current and heading SE.

Not a good thing.

Why cant we get BP to tell us how much oil is really gushing out of that mess they made?


Think about it! Why would they if they knew what is facing them with all the law suits. To them its just a leak and that is about all you will get from them as now they have tried to hide the oil under the surface with chemicals to keep the oil off the surface. I can't believe our the EPA allowed them to do this. Wouldn't it be better to let it all come to the top to see what and how to gather it up....this is nuts.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting StormChaser81:


Chemical spray will kill the corals


I figured as much......Not sure of the effect of the burning chemicals on the enviornment either but at this point, they need to attack it with everything they's got while the tendrel/main spill is way offshore......It's not just the urgency of the loop current issue as that is unfair to the Gulf Coast residents with already affected/threatened coastlines but that may be the reason they will not burn closer to shore (airborne respitory issues) along the Gulf.....Enough already; what we read in the media is usually very far from the truth (media statements from BP included), or in this case, the magnitude of the problem......BURN IT OFF.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9307
Quoting stillwaiting:




ft worth area west towards the "d".....should have some possible SC development 4-8pm cdt,imo...hope it helps!!!


thanks!!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Bordonaro:

Out of NWS Amarillo, TX Area Forecast Discussion 4:37AM CDT today:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL READY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH
AID OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE LATEST GRIDS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GIVEN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE
COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.


it's a little old, but thanks Bord!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


Well hurry up!

Im down in Hereford, Texas right now, but it looks capped right now, any thoughts?




ft worth area west towards the "d".....should have some possible SC development 4-8pm cdt,imo...hope it helps!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
157. xcool
oh TampaSpin how your doing sir.
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sounds like the oil is in the loop current and heading SE.

Not a good thing.

Why cant we get BP to tell us how much oil is really gushing out of that mess they made?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


Well hurry up!

Im down in Hereford, Texas right now, but it looks capped right now, any thoughts?

Out of NWS Amarillo, TX Area Forecast Discussion 4:37AM CDT today:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL READY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH
AID OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE LATEST GRIDS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GIVEN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE
COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting reedzone:


I think becase it's moving more towards Bermuda, into the cooler waters to the north is why it is struggling on this run. Interesting week ahead next week indeed!


Reed its gonna be a long season with this attitude already. Just try to be more self-controlled as i am trying likewise.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
153. xcool
Long Ranger: We look at th collapsing Nino, and the evidence that the monsoonal jet is already looking stronger than normal as two tropical disturbances are evident south of Asia. This is the hurricane hyperbole video. I tie this in to the forecast of the threat of development in the atlantic or Caribbean by June 1


by joe
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Quoting CycloneUK:

Volcanic Ash Update

The latest information from the Icelandic Met Office indicates that the Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to erupt. It is estimated that the current height of the ash plume is around 26000 ft (8 km) and lightning activity is constantly being detected within it. The plume is currently drifting northwards, but there is still residual ash in the vicinity of the British Isles from material that was blown southeastwards from the volcano a few days ago. Issued at 1546 on Mon 17 May 2010.


Timelapse 13-15 May: Link



Latest from the Iceland Met office:


Articles < Seismicity < Icelandic Meteorological office

Go to site map.

Eruption in Iceland - frequently asked questions
Update on activity
Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland
Assessment - 17 May 2010 18:05


Ash trail 5 - 17 May
Ash from Eyjafjallajökull
Satellite image showing ash from Eyjafjallajökull, see animation.

The height (a.s.l.) of the eruption plume is about 6-7 km according to radar, occasionally pulsating to 9 km (27,000 ft). Winds around the volcano are slightly increasing, resulting in lower plume height. The plume is drifting east and is dark-gray.

Ash has fallen in the Gnúpverjahreppur area, on the road to Sultartangi power station and in the Biskupstungur area (very fine particled and gray). Constant lightning has been detected, up to 10 flashes per hour. The ash plume rises straight up from the site.

The volcanic activity is explosive, but there are indications that it has somewhat lessened since the maximum on 13 May. Considerable ashfall is in the nighbouring communities and is expected to continue. Fluctuations in the strength of the eruption and in ashfall can still be expected. Details in status report issued collectively by the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences at 17:00.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
151. Levi32
6:19 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Levi it appears to be the phase is the exact opposite on the 12Z as it is on the 6Z

on the 6Z it begins as shallow warm core and becomes more tropical at the end of the run

on the 12Z it appears to start fully tropical and then go the other way


Well the 12z initializes the low slightly more warm-core than the 6z, but the only big difference is the 12z takes the low through subtropical transition and into the beginnings of going back to cold-core. The 6z run didn't yet show the transition back the other way, partly because of the track and timing difference between the runs. The GFS is hopping around a bit from run to run on this system, which is expected given the situation's complexity.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
150. Cavin Rawlins
6:19 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Less bullish here on the 12z run, which I figured it would be by the look of the forecast maps. Still a clear subtropical storm though by the looks of this map. SSTs may not allow fully tropical transition but things may get interesting if the trough-split goes as planned.



More on the lines of a STD then.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
149. tornadodude
6:19 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting taco2me61:
Good Afternoon Everybody,

Well got the oil changed in my truck, new tags and getting cameras ready and then work the rest of this week,
so Saturday we will be heading to Joplin MO to see mom.
But on that Monday the chase will be "ON".
Man I wish this week would hurry up and get over with.
I'm so ready to go after yesterday with Tornadodude and there chase....

Taco :o)


Well hurry up!

Im down in Hereford, Texas right now, but it looks capped right now, any thoughts?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
148. Tropicsweatherpr
6:18 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
I am getting a heavy thunderstorm in San Juan caused by a weak wave combined with diurnal effects.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14542
147. StormChaser81
6:18 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
If, and it does look like it from the posted pics, that a tendril of oil is going into the loop current, then, they need to burn it off/dispurse the hell out of it NOW before they declare it is too close to shore (and the kids and seniors, etc.) to burn it or too close to the reefs to spray dispursments ........BURN BABY BURN..........


Chemical spray will kill the corals
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
146. Cavin Rawlins
6:17 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


I wouldn't be surprised. Next week is going to be interesting with potentially two areas of interest to watch. This is also the first time so far this year that the more conservative Euro and NOGAPS models are getting in on the action as well.


It also occurs where the subtropical and polar jet splits. The synoptic pattern I'm seeing favors some level of genesis of a cyclone, non tropical and/or tropical.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
145. reedzone
6:17 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Less bullish here on the 12z run, which I figured it would be by the look of the forecast maps. Still a clear subtropical storm though by the looks of this map. SSTs may not allow fully tropical transition but things may get interesting if the trough-split goes as planned.



I think becase it's moving more towards Bermuda, into the cooler waters to the north is why it is struggling on this run. Interesting week ahead next week indeed!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7415
144. Hurricanes101
6:15 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Less bullish here on the 12z run, which I figured it would be by the look of the forecast maps. Still a clear subtropical storm though by the looks of this map. SSTs may not allow fully tropical transition but things may get interesting if the trough-split goes as planned.



Levi it appears to be the phase is the exact opposite on the 12Z as it is on the 6Z

on the 6Z it begins as shallow warm core and becomes more tropical at the end of the run

on the 12Z it appears to start fully tropical and then go the other way
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866
143. reedzone
6:14 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


I wouldn't be surprised. Next week is going to be interesting with potentially two areas of interest to watch. This is also the first time so far this year that the more conservative Euro and NOGAPS models are getting in on the action as well.


I was trying to tell adrian this before he bashed me/called me out. I don't like stuck up weather scholars. I respect you and Weather456, you both have great analysis, as well as StormW.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7415
142. JRRP
6:13 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
cmc shear 12z

gfs 12z

ngp 00z
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6154
141. weathermanwannabe
6:13 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
If, and it does look like it from the posted pics, that a tendril of oil is going into the loop current, then, they need to burn it off/dispurse the hell out of it NOW before they declare it is too close to shore (and the kids and seniors, etc.) to burn it or too close to the reefs to spray dispursments ........BURN BABY BURN..........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9307
139. Levi32
6:12 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
NEW Cyclone phase diagram
SUB-tropical transition all the way



Less bullish here on the 12z run, which I figured it would be by the look of the forecast maps. Still a clear subtropical storm though by the looks of this map. SSTs may not allow fully tropical transition but things may get interesting if the trough-split goes as planned.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
138. reedzone
6:11 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
NEW Cyclone phase diagram
SUB-tropical transition all the way

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7415
137. Levi32
6:09 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


If the maps verify, this could be TD 1



I wouldn't be surprised. Next week is going to be interesting with potentially two areas of interest to watch. This is also the first time so far this year that the more conservative Euro and NOGAPS models are getting in on the action as well.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
136. gordydunnot
6:08 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Oh hell we might as well drill in the everglades, looks like they have found a way to get the oil mess there anyways.Looks like S. Fl. loss maybe Caribbean's gain. I think I'll work on my Jamaican accent.Mon
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
135. Bordonaro
6:06 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting CycloneUK:


I find it hard to believe that this won't have any impact on our climate, especially if it goes on for months... or years.



Ash is forecast to be pushed up into the Arctic circle and russia.

The troposphere is the lower portion of the atmosphere, from sea level up to about 45,000 feet. This is where most of Earth's weather will occur.

Occasionally, thunderstorms will shoot up to over 70,000 ft into the lower stratosphere.

All of "E's" current ash/SO2 plume is staying in the 20-35,000 ft level. NO ash /SO2 is being sent into the stratosphere, which starts at roughly 50,000 ft upward to about 1000,000 ft.

The ash/SO2 emissions are rather significant, however the normal Polar Jet catches this and will eventually bring these emissions back to Earth.

IF "E" shoots ash/SO2 into the stratosphere (over 50,000 ft) then there will be a significant effect. But at this moment, that does not appear likely.

SO2 is an aerosol that mixes with minute particles of water vapor or tiny particles reflecting sunlight back into space when in the stratosphere. The SO2 is being washed out of the lower atmosphere at this time.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
134. taco2me61
6:05 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Good Afternoon Everybody,

Well got the oil changed in my truck, new tags and getting cameras ready and then work the rest of this week,
so Saturday we will be heading to Joplin MO to see mom.
But on that Monday the chase will be "ON".
Man I wish this week would hurry up and get over with.
I'm so ready to go after yesterday with Tornadodude and there chase....

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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Mostly Cloudy