Record Atlantic SSTs continue in the hurricane Main Development Region

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:03 PM GMT on May 15, 2010

Share this Blog
7
+

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest April on record, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. The area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 85°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C.


Figure 1. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for May 13, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

What is responsible for the high SSTs?
As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter. Negative AO/NAO conditions have been dominant much of this spring as well, resulting in further anomalous heating of the MDR waters. This heating is superimposed on the very warm global SSTs we've been seeing over the past few decades due to global warming. Global and Northern Hemisphere SSTs were the 2nd warmest on record this past December, January, and February, the warmest on record in March, and will likely be classified as the warmest or second warmest on record for April, since NASA just classified April as the warmest April on record for the globe. We are also in the warm phase of a decades-long natural oscillation in Atlantic ocean temperatures called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This warm phase began in 1995, and has been partially responsible for the high levels of hurricane activity we've seen since 1995.

What does this imply for the coming hurricane season?
The high April SST anomaly does not bode well for the coming hurricane season. The three past seasons with record warm April SST anomalies all had abnormally high numbers of intense hurricanes. Past hurricane seasons that had high March SST anomalies include 1969 (0.90°C anomaly), 2005 (1.19°C anomaly), and 1958 (0.97°C anomaly). These three years had 5, 7, and 5 intense hurricanes, respectively. Just two intense hurricanes occur in an average year. The total averaged activity for the three seasons was 15 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes (an average hurricane season has 10, 6, and 2.) Both 1958 and 2005 saw neutral El Niño conditions, while 1969 had a weak El Niño.

The SSTs are already as warm as we normally see in July between Africa and the Caribbean, and we have a very July-like tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands this weekend. However, wind shear is still seasonably high, and the tropical waves coming off of Africa are still too far south to have much of a chance of developing. The GFS model is indicating that shear will start to drop over the Caribbean the last week of May, so we may have to be on the watch for tropical storms forming in the Caribbean then.

For those of you interested in a more detailed look at the early season tropical weather outlook, consult the excellent wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456. I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1319 - 1269

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

1319. Seastep
5:17 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
LOL...agreeing to idiocy is a pack trait.

And fools will follow one another off a cliff enmasse..easily.


You hit the nail on the head with that one. LOL.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
1318. CycloneOz
4:13 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


Looking at the NOGAPS, GFS, EURO.. Hey, I'm not crying out development as some are here. Just saying a broad tropical, sheared low pressue system looks likely. I don't understand why weather scholars have to be soo stuck up. Don't turn out like scottsvb please. He almost caused me not want to be a meteorologist.


May 22nd is the date I predicted that we'd see our first named storm.

I'm on the clock now.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
1317. Unfriendly
4:12 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting RitaEvac:
Fools are ones who live on the beach knowing what surge will do and ones who live below sea level in a bowl


Did you somehow miss the massive wall of text that pat posted? NOLA is there because it needs to be. Can more be done to lessen the risk of major storms hitting it? Absolutely. Look at the Netherlands - this is a case of an entire country nearly at as much at risk as a single city, and yet they persevere, through a system of massive seawalls and IMO, the best water control features in the world. The one thing they don't have is ~20 miles of wetlands (depeleted, yes, but not gone) protecting them as well. If they can do it, we can to; it would not be impossible to ring the entire city of New Orleans with a 30 foot earthen levee, topped by concrete - and the Brits are considering a new Thames Barrier, nearly 10 miles across, to protect London. There is talk about the mighty Mississippi - but even that grand river can be controlled and rerouted if the neccessity is needed.

Civil engineering is not about what we CAN do, as we can build just about anything with concrete and steel; it's about how much money we can throw at the problem. Eventually, there will be a point where the survival of the city depends purely on human infrastructure, and even though that will cost a huge amount of money, well, as I said, NOLA is there because it needs to be.

My mother is from New Orleans - and though I've never been, seeing her tears at the devastation (yes, devastation) caused by Katrina converted me to her way of thought. It isn't just the port, or the french quarter, or downtown - it is a city that time forget, a place that holds true the ideals of a past time, and a place whose future rests squarely on the shoulders of technology and the willpower of those who will always remain there.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 314
1316. aspectre
4:10 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
1251. smarterthanyou "so...The levees breaking was not a result of Katrina?"

Try political chicanery at the ArmyCorps of Engineers. The contractor who built the section which collapsed told them in written&archived complaints that the soil hadn't been properly compacted, and was threatened with a breach-of-contract lawsuit if he failed to proceed with the work. Then his company went bankrupt exceeding the building requirements set in the terms of his contract.
Katrina itself didn't even come close to overtopping the levee at that section.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1315. Cavin Rawlins
4:05 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Dr Masters has a new blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1314. Cavin Rawlins
4:04 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow...


Yes, wow.

With ENSO first, SSTs is the 2nd largest modulator of season activity.

It is likely 16 named storms maybe the lower end.

I suspect noaa will be conservative but will not ignore those SSTs.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1313. Stormchaser2007
4:04 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
12z 96 hours out.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1312. Skyepony (Mod)
4:04 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting NEwxguy:


skye,none of the local mets are playing this storm up much except that it will be raining Tuesday night into Wednesday.


Most the models had it out to sea yesterday..gfs had it far away from the NE. Trend has been more land affected & stronger. Looking at the different parts pulling together, I've liked the center going up the coast or even leaning toward a little more land all along. If it sucks in the energy east of FL, it should be memorable for someone. I'm only at 45% we'll see storm reports & an event of sorts. No surprise the local news isn't hyping more than rain. It's a few days out yet..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37337
1311. twhcracker
4:02 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting RitaEvac:
Fools are ones who live on the beach knowing what surge will do and ones who live below sea level in a bowl


yeah but its not ever gonna change. I already hear people saying if the oil comes it might be a good opportunity to get some beach front at a decent price.,
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1310. JRRP
4:02 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.05.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.5N 86.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.05.2010 12.5N 86.5E WEAK
12UTC 19.05.2010 13.2N 84.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.05.2010 15.1N 84.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.05.2010 16.7N 85.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.05.2010 18.6N 86.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.05.2010 20.2N 88.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.05.2010 21.6N 90.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.05.2010 22.1N 92.0E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.05.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170455


i did not recognize you
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5337
1309. kellnerp
4:01 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Anybody here a Linux user and interested in trying the 3D radar link on Wunderground? I looked into it and they don't support Linux AFAIK. They do support the Mac so they can't be that far from supporting Linux. You might want to let the website know.
Member Since: September 1, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
1308. TampaSpin
4:00 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link below for the "E" followers. The web-cam has cleared up and the ash plume is visible and quite high I may add:
Link


That is a dang large amount of Ash pumping out now.......Redoubt didn't erupt that large i don't believe.......Is this the largest blast thus far?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1307. katzanddogz
3:59 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
When injured by the same force all react differently. There are those who will cry out, I am dying and wait for aid. While others, with silent tears, will access the damage and do the aid themselves.
No one owns the corner market on disasters. All disasters are horrible no matter what form they come in. To say one is less or more than another is in itself the true form of idiocy.
Member Since: February 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
1306. reedzone
3:57 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


upper winds is one thing...but the area of low pressure we are referring to in the SW Caribbean is non-frontal.


Hi Weather456, thats all I've been saying, nothing big yet unless the shear decreases.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
1305. Stormchaser2007
3:57 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Wow...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1304. AussieStorm
3:56 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link below for the "E" followers. The web-cam has cleared up and the ash plume is visible and quite high I may add:
Link

Morning all. Miss E looks upset.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
1303. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:54 PM GMT on May 17, 2010


day 3 severe oak in the zone again
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1302. reedzone
3:54 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:


Lame? Watching 200+hr model forecast and tw's of africa in may is amusing. Projected upper winds by the gfs don't look to friendly.


Looking at the NOGAPS, GFS, EURO.. Hey, I'm not crying out development as some are here. Just saying a broad tropical, sheared low pressue system looks likely. I don't understand why weather scholars have to be soo stuck up. Don't turn out like scottsvb please. He almost caused me not want to be a meteorologist.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
1301. Bordonaro
3:54 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:
We are not off to a good start today. Let's all start over......Good Morning everyone as i have 15minutes left in my time zone to say that!

Good morning Tampa, it's a beautiful, sunny, humid, late spring day in Arlington, TX.

It's about 80F, light E winds at 5-10MPH, RH about 65%. Prime conditions for our area of instability in the TX Panhandle to move SE and wreak havoc, with strong 70-80MPH straight-line winds in NW TX!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1300. aspectre
3:50 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
...'27, '47, '65, '69, '98, '04, '05... I'd say NewOrleans gets more than it's fair share of 400year storms.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1299. Bordonaro
3:48 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Link below for the "E" followers. The web-cam has cleared up and the ash plume is visible and quite high I may add:
Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1298. TampaSpin
3:46 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
We are not off to a good start today. Let's all start over......Good Morning everyone as i have 15minutes left in my time zone to say that!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1297. NEwxguy
3:45 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Skyepony:


Gfs shows it somewhat on the tail of the storm rolling up the coast of the Northeast in about 3 days.. GFS has been having a hard time with this developing Noreaster.. Shear is dropping a little in the area the gfs & nogaps hint at, so something is trying there. I think we will see the soon to be developing storm in the GA/Carolina's coastline area be strong enough to pull in & eat that bit of energy making it that much a more event for the NE..


skye,none of the local mets are playing this storm up much except that it will be raining Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15591
1296. Cavin Rawlins
3:44 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:


Lame? Watching 200+hr model forecast and tw's of africa in may is amusing. Projected upper winds by the gfs don't look to friendly.


upper winds is one thing...but the area of low pressure we are referring to in the SW Caribbean is non-frontal.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1295. CycloneOz
3:42 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

Oz, have you or T Dude intercepted a live tornado yet?


I have not. I'm not sure about him. He may have with his father when he was younger...not sure, though.

I did intercept one by accident, however.

During Hurricane Ivan, I was standing on my Nana's front porch watching the storm rage. (Nana passed away last February, that's her in the video.)

The oak trees in her front yard were being bent over well by Ivan...when suddenly, they went straight up. I heard a "whoosh" sound and saw a white, glowing vapor wrap around them.

Instantly, there was a thunderous "SNAP" sound and then the whole house went "BOOM" and shook.

I wadded up like a little bunny with a wire up the wazoo and ran back inside.

"Honey, what was that?" asked Nana...

I ran into her dining room and saw that a pine tree next to her house had crashed into the roof and penetrated the structure inside.

"Don't go into your dining room, Nana," I warned her...basically to save her from freaking out on me.

The next morning, you can see in the video that the oak trees were snapped well, but the giant "snap" sound I heard was from the pine tree that was now blocking the side road.

The tornado laid waste to the neighborhood across the street where my Aunt RoseMarie lives and where she rode out the storm.

At the very end of the video, you can see where a pine tree was twisted up by the tornado.

As a side, Ivan de-pants-ed me in the middle of Bayou Blvd. in a 150-170 mph gust.

What a storm!!!!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
1294. hurricane23
3:42 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Frontal low in the Carribean?? I'm sorry but that was a lame excuse. A broad low at best, tropical, but sheared.


Lame? Watching 200+hr model forecast and tw's of africa in may is amusing. Projected upper winds by the gfs don't look to friendly.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
1293. Levi32
3:42 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Good morning.

New SST anomaly map today shows the Pacific continuing to cool very rapidly, with already a La Ninish look appearing in the Nino 3.4 region.

Caribbean SSTs have cooled somewhat over the last week due to a burst of stronger than normal easterly trade winds, thanks to strong high pressure off the SE US tightening the pressure gradient over the Caribbean.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1292. Cavin Rawlins
3:41 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.05.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.5N 86.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.05.2010 12.5N 86.5E WEAK
12UTC 19.05.2010 13.2N 84.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.05.2010 15.1N 84.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.05.2010 16.7N 85.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.05.2010 18.6N 86.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.05.2010 20.2N 88.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.05.2010 21.6N 90.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.05.2010 22.1N 92.0E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.05.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170455

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1291. Skyepony (Mod)
3:39 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:


frontal? based on what?


Gfs shows it somewhat on the tail of the storm rolling up the coast of the Northeast in about 3 days.. GFS has been having a hard time with this developing Noreaster.. Shear is dropping a little in the area the gfs & nogaps hint at, so something is trying there. I think we will see the soon to be developing storm in the GA/Carolina's coastline area be strong enough to pull in & eat that bit of energy making it that much a more event for the NE..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37337
1290. TampaSpin
3:38 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting CycloneUK:
The first quake i've seen beneath Katla.






Might be ready to wake up as it usually does. We might be seeing the beginning of the giant that is to come.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1289. Bordonaro
3:37 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
bay of bengal got a flag up



WTIO21 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 89.6E TO 14.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 88.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 170315Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THAT A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
A 171108Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MARKED CONSOLIDATION HAS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION RINGING AN
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. SEVERAL BANDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WRAP
TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM LIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
MULTIDIRECTIONAL VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS, AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181500Z.//
NNNN


The Bay of Bengal will be very BUSY this year, as the SST are off the charts in that area, plus the available energy in the Bay of bengal is also very high. The MJO moved through that area sparking several very healthy looking waves.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1288. reedzone
3:33 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Frontal low in the Carribean?? I'm sorry but that was a lame excuse. A broad low at best, tropical, but sheared.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
1287. 1900hurricane
3:33 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

Hey Oz, her ya' go, if you're up to another chase, actually the TX Panhandle is pretty busy right now:


However later today

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171516Z - 171615Z

TSTM CLUSTER OVER THE S PLAINS OF W TX HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF
70-80 MPH RECENTLY JUST EAST OF KLUB. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE ESE INTO CNTRL TX THROUGH THE AFTN.
VWP FROM LUBBOCK SHOWS AROUND 30-35 KTS OF MID-LVL FLOW AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT AHEAD OF THE STORM CLUSTER...STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
WW.

..RACY.. 05/17/2010

I was actually just talking to tornadodude and he is chasing in the area for the next few days. Looks like he's going to get some action!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
1286. Bordonaro
3:32 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
#1283: There have actually been a handful of earthquakes under Katla over the past few weeks.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1285. Bordonaro
3:31 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


tornadodude is in position.

Stayed tuned to this blog for any updates from him. We may be going live again at XtremeHurricanes.com today.

Oz, have you or T Dude intercepted a live tornado yet?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1284. CycloneOz
3:30 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

Hey Oz, her ya' go, if you're up to another chase, actually the TX Panhandle is pretty busy right now


tornadodude is in position.

Stayed tuned to this blog for any updates from him. We may be going live again at XtremeHurricanes.com today.

The last I heard from him, he was working with his technology....at a Starbucks (yum.)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
1283. CycloneUK
3:30 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
The first quake i've seen beneath Katla.




Member Since: March 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
1282. RitaEvac
3:30 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
bordanaro, you think SE TX will see a MCS blob this evening into tonight?
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1281. Bordonaro
3:25 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


I just found out today that I have only two degrees of separation between me and one of the two guys who developed the euro model.

I got to hear the history behind it this morning. Pretty fascinating stuff!

cool, huh? :)

Hey Oz, her ya' go, if you're up to another chase, actually the TX Panhandle is pretty busy right now:


However later today

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171516Z - 171615Z

TSTM CLUSTER OVER THE S PLAINS OF W TX HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF
70-80 MPH RECENTLY JUST EAST OF KLUB. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE ESE INTO CNTRL TX THROUGH THE AFTN.
VWP FROM LUBBOCK SHOWS AROUND 30-35 KTS OF MID-LVL FLOW AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT AHEAD OF THE STORM CLUSTER...STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
WW.

..RACY.. 05/17/2010
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:24 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
bay of bengal got a flag up


WTIO21 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 89.6E TO 14.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 88.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 170315Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THAT A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
A 171108Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MARKED CONSOLIDATION HAS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION RINGING AN
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. SEVERAL BANDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WRAP
TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM LIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
MULTIDIRECTIONAL VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS, AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181500Z.//
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1279. splash3392
3:24 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
WE just got back yesterday from Key West and visiting the Fort Jefferson.
We may have some photos of an historical past if the oil gets in the loop.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 643
1277. Patrap
3:18 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
WUnderul decison,,staying for a CAt-5 on the Beach.



Seems we now have gotton to the root of things.

Disaster jealousy 101.

A fine Florida trait expressed daily here.

Im off to savor the Shrimps,..

Enjoy the new entry..it will be out shortly.

Toodles..



."Calamity knows NO borders,only mens minds and Map's do"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
1276. Minnemike
3:17 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting indianrivguy:
man.. ten steps turn and fire....

nicely played
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
1275. CycloneOz
3:15 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:


GFS and ECMWF


I just found out today that I have only two degrees of separation between me and one of the two guys who developed the euro model.

I got to hear the history behind it this morning. Pretty fascinating stuff!

cool, huh? :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
1274. TampaSpin
3:15 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting indianrivguy:
man.. ten steps turn and fire....


Ya really...bro you got that right...OUCH
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1273. TampaSpin
3:13 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
If the Oil has not gotten into the Loop the Coral Reefs in the Keys will be ruined.....man i hope not......Anyone wanna buy a nice fishing boat or can i ask for some bailout money....HEHEHEHE
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1272. RitaEvac
3:12 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

Good morning, thought of you as 5" of rain fell over Houston/Galveston over the weekend. And you are all still 2-3 " below normal for the year!!

They probably will never mover NOLA, although they should slowly move portions of the city to higher ground, away from the MS River delta area. Considering half of NOLA is below sea level and they're at a high risk of a major hurricane in any given season.

I understand the NOLA residents love their city, like Patrap, I respect that. Blame it all on the folks who busted up that log-jam on one of the area rivers in the 1860's. That started this mess, and it will not finish until:
A) The Army Corp of Engineers "engineer" a way to tame the MS River, which is not likely.

or

B) Mother Nature wins and NOLA is reclaimed by natural forces.


Hey man!

I received 1.90" total outta the 2 days. But just 10 miles to my east received some 5". Ground sucked it up too. yards are greener and we really needed that. Hope more comes this week as forecasted
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1271. indianrivguy
3:12 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
man.. ten steps turn and fire....
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2519
1270. Drakoen
3:12 PM GMT on May 17, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


Drak what site do you use.....the Navy was pretty good.


Link
Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886

Viewing: 1319 - 1269

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.