No change to Caribbean disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:05 AM GMT on September 27, 2005

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The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Hispanolia, has changed little this afternoon, and remains very disorganized. There is no surface circulation, and pressures are not falling significantly. This disturbance split in two this morning, and the leading (westernmost) portion was effectively destroyed by wind shear associated with an upper level low to its northwest. The trailing (eastern) portion of the disturbance south of Hisponolia has about 10 knots of shear over it, which is marginal for tropical storm development.

The upper level low is moving to the north away from the disturbance, and a favorable low-shear environment is forecast to set up over the disturbance by Wednesday or Thursday. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area on Tuesday, but I doubt it will be needed until Wednesday. I still give this disturbance a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm by Friday, when it should be near western Cuba or in the Gulf of Mexico. It is far too early to even offer even an educated guess about what might happen then.



Mid-Atlantic disturbance
A tropical disturbance located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has effectively been destroyed by wind shear imparted by a large upper-level low pressure system to its west. Development of this disturbance is not expected. The ITCZ is very active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. Tropical storm development along this area is possible later this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A cluster of thunderstorms accosiated with the tail end of the cold front that pulled Rita northeast across the U.S. is now emerging over the northern Gulf of Mexico, near the Florida Panhandle. Strong upper levels winds should prevent any development in this area for at least the next two days.

Alaska and Hawaii
We don't talk much about these states in my tropical blog, but Nome, Alaska had a huge mid-latitude cyclone hit them Friday. The storm brought sustained tropical storm force winds gusting to 52 mph, a 10-foot storm surge, and a pressure of 972 mb! This was in essence a Category 1 hurricane, as far as the storm surge and pressure go. Thanks to wunderphotographer Destiny, who brought this newspaper article to my attention.

Hawaii has its second tropical system of the season to be concerned with. Hawaii dodged major Hurricane Jova last week, andTropical Storm Kenneth is expected to pass within 100 miles of the Islands by the end of the week. Kenneth should only be a tropical depression by then, and bring a few extra rain showers to the islands.

Jeff Masters

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180. IKE
1:58 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
A new thread by the doctor.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
179. IKE
1:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
This blog has technical issues....

And the arguing on here!@!@!@!@ Ugh/////////
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
178. IKE
1:49 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Something will develop soon...probably within a couple of days. The weather pattern remains warm along the Gulf Coast and SE US of A. That cooler air that was suppose to make it into the SE by Friday isn't...it's going more east then south. A front will come down, but the cooler air won't. Stan will be around somewhere.

Pizza and coffee????
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
177. Carbo04
12:30 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I'm not sure what is happening next, but i do know something big will happen soon. We had this couple of day lull after Dennis, Emily, Katrina, and now Rita. This season is far from over. I wouldn't even be suprised to see a 3rd, and Mitch like cat. 5 in the Carribean this year in October.
176. oriondarkwood
12:23 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
With Pizza and Coffee there can be world peace
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
175. IKE
12:19 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I'll try this again...I think the latest BAMM model has blob jr./Stan staying weak and forced west by building high pressure.

An impressive blow-up by Stan this morning and it's moving along at a decent clip.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
174. IKE
12:15 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I think that BAMM model has blob jr./Stan staying weak and forced west by building high pressure.

Impressive blow-up on Stan-to-be this morning and it's moving along at a decent clip.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
173. theboldman
12:07 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
ill tale a pepperoni thick crust hey can i get bacon on that too

lol hey pizza guy lol
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
172. Pizzaguy
11:49 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
I know that model is early but it looks like it's heading into Mexico. Why would it do that?
171. leftyy420
8:54 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
the ull is being pulled north by the cold front so in 2 days or so anything left from rota will have a chance than, but its unlikley as it will encounter the pr wave and likley get sucked into it. but still needs to be watched. this moving north of the ull will alow the wave to blossom and with sst and heat content in the carribean so high explosive development is likely and we could see ts stan in 36-48 hrs or sooner
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
170. leftyy420
8:50 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
alright did some looking heres what i see

the remants of rita will have a tough time due to shear from the ull that was affecteing the pr wave. this ull has moved north towards florida. this moveemnt has allowed the shear to relax over the wave south of pr. this will alow that wave to develop into a td but make it unlikley the remants of rita will flare back up but she still needs to be watched
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
169. leftyy420
8:43 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
also the remants of rita is blowing up some nice convection and will need to be watched. the wave in the middle of the atlantic looks much beetr as well. looks like those 3 areas been busy tonight. will see what they do. i belive the wave in the carribean will fomr into a depresion in the next 24 hrs
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
168. leftyy420
8:38 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
wow the wave is relly starting to take off tonight. will have to see if it orginises more durring the day. this blow up is mostly due to diurinal cooling but if the pressure fallscontinue a llc could develop
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
167. leftyy420
7:17 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
yeah the surface anylasis shows the low being cenetred right where the convection blew up.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
166. StormJunkie
7:15 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Back to work so I can get out of here sometime in the next 4 hours.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
165. StormJunkie
7:13 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Sorry for multiple post, something screwy tonight either with my network or the WG server.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
164. StormJunkie
7:11 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Nice forcast 79. Huge cone as it should be right now. Well done.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
163. hurricane79
7:12 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
After seeing the new satellite images after the blackout, it appears that a farther West location is more probable.
162. StormJunkie
7:10 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Nice forcast track 79. Huge cone and that should be expected right now.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
161. hurricane79
7:10 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Stormjunkie, I am having a hard time trying to refresh the page. I think this is a systemwide problem though, judging from the rest of the bloggers. Please be patient
160. StormJunkie
7:09 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
That is a huge cone 79 and rightfully so. Good track forcast at this point.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
159. leftyy420
7:07 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
i agree with ur forcast 79, think she will be stringer by friday but we will see. did u see the post black out images. very nice blow up over the area of low pressure. will ahve to see what it does thru the night and tomm durring the day
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
158. StormJunkie
7:05 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Let me geuss 79-It goes across Central to N Florida?lol. Just giving you a hard time. All in good fun. I will check the link now.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
157. hurricane79
6:56 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
No forecast???? Heres mine: Link
156. hurricane79
6:43 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Test the knowledge in the field y'all: tell us what is to come of the wave in the Caribbean in 72 hours:
153. leftyy420
6:36 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
and u didn't get my goat. ur ignorance is ur problem not mine. i will just ignore you and let u look like an idiot on ur own
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
152. weatherwannabe
6:35 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
PS - thanks LEfty i learned a few things and was greatly entertained in the process!!! Thanks - but I'm still winning our bet!!!
151. leftyy420
6:34 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
wanabe ur an idiot. u need therapy as well
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
149. leftyy420
6:30 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
wannabe i am done arguing with you. u hve issues and i am tired of the crap. so i will just ignore u like the troll u are
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
148. hurricane79
6:28 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
FLGLFCST, Too early to speculate. please ask me tomorrow (Tues. PM) when I can have time to see synoptic trends.
147. leftyy420
6:27 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
wannabe i am done arguing with you. doen;t matter what i say or do so whats the point. just ignore me as i will u. ur whole purpose os to prove me wrong. well have fun
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
146. weatherwannabe
6:27 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Yeah I dont know a damn thing about this except what is on the web. But I assume the people at NASA and NOAA are not idiots and they disagree with you LEFTY.
145. leftyy420
6:25 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
flg

the bamm tracks what ever forms across cuba or between cuba and the yucatan and into the gul. like charley and ivan. right now nothing hs formed and when and if it does we will have a betetr handle on where it will go
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
144. leftyy420
6:23 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
here u go wanabe. from the noaa website

A real-time global sea surface temperature (SST) analysis has been developed by Richard Reynolds from the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Also, a monthly one-degree global SST climatology was constructed using these analyses by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC/NOAA). This climatology derived from monthly Optimum Interpolation (OIv2) SST analyses with an adjusted base period of 1971-2000 was used in computing the SST anomaly field using a weighted monthly mean climatology and the current observed Reynolds SST field. The actual areal coverage of the analysis and the anomally data is roughly between 60S and 60N globally. These analyses were based on ship and buoy SST data supplemented with satellite SST retrievals. The one degree climatology and analyses resolve equatorial upwelling and fronts.

The optimum interpolation (OIv2) SST analysis is produced weekly on a one-degree grid. The analysis uses buoy and ship data, satellite SST data, and SST's simulated by sea-ice coverage. Before the analysis is computed, the satellite data is adjusted for biases using the method described by Reynolds (1988) and Reynolds and Marsico (1993). A description of the analysis can be found in Reynolds and Smith (1994).

The Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane Center uses the SST analyses in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity in statistical hurricane models. Every Monday or Tuesday the graphics are updated for the previous week. The SST analyses are separated into Eastern Pacific and Atlantic domains. An analysis and anomaly chart are produced for each domain. The analysis chart contains the current SST comprised from current observations. The anomaly chart is the global SST climatology subtracted from the SST analysis.

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
142. hurricane79
6:22 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Well, the floater1 is now on the 99L system in the Caribbean, for those who hadnt already seen it: Link (Blackout over within the hour)
141. leftyy420
6:22 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
wannabe what are u talking about. i am using the reynolds heat content imagery just as the nhc does. ur an idiot
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
140. FLGLFCST
6:21 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Lefty and 79,
Thanks, My concern in the area of those remains is not that PCola was in trouble but the fact that another storm could form that close to the coast, something that close with not alot of warning could be very bad.

Now on to more interesting matters, the area below PR. I heard comments of a track Ala Ivan earlier tonight? Is it a possiblity? I guess anything is at this point as it isnt even a depression yet. I don't want to see another storm, I really don't but at the same time I wanna see how much power this season can turn out. After riding Ivan out in a school house I have become fascinated with these monsters. So what do you think? IF it becomes a hurricane, any guess on path?
139. leftyy420
6:21 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
wanabe, is was refering the tmi version of heat content to that of reynolds. thats why i use the reynolds version as its whats used by the nhc and all global models
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
138. weatherwannabe
6:19 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
A little knowledge can be adangerous thing - I assume you are gettgin your BS and not MS or PhD. You were dead wrong again on the TCHP vs SST issue. What else are you wrong about?
137. timl2k5
6:16 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
if you're trying to figure this stuff out wannabe, wtf are you doing here? This is an enthusiasts internet forum for christ sake. You expect PHD's here?
136. leftyy420
6:15 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
trust me wannabe i know what i am talking about
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
135. leftyy420
6:14 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
wanabe not that it matters but i am in school now to get my fegree in meterology. now i only go prt time but i will finish it up soon enough
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
134. weatherwannabe
6:14 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
LEFTY SAYS "wannabe casue thats not the imagery used bu the nhc or the global models. they use the reynolds version of that imagery. thats what i posted. what u posted is more likley the tmi and the tmi is nopt very accurate as it uses bouys and since there are not many buys in the gulf it estimates what the water temps to great depths are. the reynolds uses the tmi as well as satelites. thats why i post the reynolds."

Well look what I found:

Satellite altimetry blended data, including those from NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 missions, were used to estimate the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, a measure of the oceanic heat content from the sea surface to the depth of the 26C isotherm) in the Gulf of Mexico in near-real time. TCHP fields will be critical to scientists and forecasters to better understand the link between the ocean and the intensification Katrina and other hurricanes.



Link

LEFTY you are full of bs
133. leftyy420
6:12 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
tim, this was the gulf befor rita. remebr she blew up into a 897mb cat 5

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
132. weatherwannabe
6:10 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
lefty - I'm trying to figure this stuff out and I want to make sure that people that are spouting off opinions know what they are talking about. You seem to talk a lot of nonsense, what are your creds? Are you a PhD in meterology?
131. leftyy420
6:10 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
here is the sst from the reynold method


and this is the reynolds version of heat content

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
130. timl2k5
6:09 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Looking at both sets of images, it certainly looks like the Guld has cooled off quite a bit. The loop current will pull more hot water into the gulf no doubt, but if a system were to travel over the gulf over the next few days, I'd be shocked if it exceeded CAT 2. KAT and RITA have sapped quite a large amount of energy out of the gulf. The loop current is not very speedy if I recall, so I think the gulf coast can relax a bit.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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