Flooding death toll in Southeast U.S. floods rises to 24; oil slick moving little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on May 04, 2010

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The death toll from last weekend's record flooding in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Mississippi has risen to 24, making it the deadliest non-tropical storm or hurricane flood disaster in the U.S. since the October 1998 Central Texas floods that killed 31 when a cold front stalled over Texas. As flood waters recede today, the toll from last weekend's floods is expected to grow higher. Particularly hard-hit was the Nashville, Tennessee area, where ten fatalities were reported. The city had its heaviest 1-day and 2-day rainfall amounts in its history over the weekend. A remarkable 7.25" of rain fell on the city Sunday, breaking the record for most rain in a single day (6.60", set September 13, 1979.) Nashville's third greatest day of rainfall on record occurred Saturday, when 6.32" fell. Nashville also eclipsed its greatest 6-hour and 12-hour rainfall events on record, with 5.57" and 7.20", respectively, falling on Sunday. And, only two days into the month, the weekend rains made it the rainiest May in Nashville's history.

Rainfall records were smashed all across Tennessee, Kentucky, and northern Mississippi over the weekend, with amounts as high as 17.73" recorded at Camden, TN, and 17.02" at Brownsville, TN. According to Chris Burt, the author of the excellent book Extreme Weather, the 13.30" that fell on Camden in 24 hours just missed eclipsing the state's all-time 24-hour precipitation record, the 13.60" inches that fell on Milan on September 13, 1982. Jackson, Tennessee had its rainiest day in its 63-year weather history on Sunday, 7.93". Bowling Green Kentucky had its heaviest 2-day precipitation event on record, 9.67". Records in Bowling Green go back to 1870.


Figure 1. Satellite-estimated precipitable water at 23 UTC (7 pm EDT) Sunday, May 2, 2010. Precipitable water is a measure of how much rain would be produced if all the water vapor and cloud moisture through the depth of the atmosphere were to fall as rain. Values above 50 mm (about 2 inches) are frequently associated with flooding. Sunday's precipitable water image showed a tropical disturbance crossed Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico, dragging a plume of very moist air northwards over the Southeast U.S. Image credit: University of Wisconsin GOES Satellite Blog.


Figure 2. Flood forecast for the Cumberland River in Nashville, Tennessee. Image credit: NOAA.

The record rains were accompanied by a surge of very warm air that set record high temperature marks at 21 major airports across the Eastern U.S. on Saturday. This is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record high temperatures are present. Accompanying this warm air was moisture from a tropical disturbance that crossed over Mexico from the tropical East Pacific over the weekend (Figure 1.)

The record rains sent the Cumberland River in downtown Nashville surging to 51.86' this morning, 12' over flood height, and the highest level the river has reached since a flood control project was completed in the early 1960s. The previous post-flood control project record level was 47.6', set on March 15, 1975 (the river hit 56.2' in 1929, before the flood control project was built.) The river has now crested (Figure 2) and is expected to recede below flood stage by Wednesday morning. There are no further rains in the forecast this week for Tennessee. At least four rivers in Tennessee reached their greatest flood heights on record this week. Most remarkable was the Duck River at Centreville, which crested at 47', a full 25 feet above flood stage, and ten feet higher than the previous record crest, achieved in 1948 (to check out the flood heights, use our wundermap for Nashville with the "USGS River" layer turned on.)

Funding issues to take 17 Tennessee streamgages offline
According to the USGS web site, seventeen Tennessee streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. With up to eighteen people in Tennessee dying from flooding this weekend, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by taking 17 of Tennessee's 94 streamflow gages out of service. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, Tennessee and most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming. Both factors have already contributed to significant increases in flooding events in recent decades over much of the U.S. The USGS web site advertises that users who can contribute funding for the non-Federal share of costs to continue operation of these streamgages should contact Shannon Williams of the USGS Tennessee Water Science Center at 615-837-4755 or swilliam@usgs.gov. Tennessee is not the only state with streamgages at risk of closing down; fully 276 gages in 37 states have been shut down or will be shut down later this year. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.

Oil spill update
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has retreated from the coast, thanks to a slackening of the persistent onshore winds that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past week. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will be light and variable through Wednesday, resulting in little transport of the oil slick. Winds will then resume a weak onshore flow at 5 - 10 knots, Thursday through Friday, then reverse to blow offshore at 5 - 10 knots over the weekend. The net result of this wind pattern will be little transport of the oil slick. The only areas at risk of landfalling oil over the next five days will be the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, and the Chandeleur Islands. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) show weak ocean currents affecting the region during the remainder of the week. These currents will not be strong enough to push any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days, so the Keys and South Florida are safe from oil for now. I'll have a post on the long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current later this week, and a discussion of how a hurricane might affect and be affected by the oil spill.


Figure 3. Forecast location at 6pm CDT Tuesday, May 4, 2010, of the oil slick from the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.

Jeff Masters

Alice Aycock sculpture (laughingjester)
If you saw my other pics of this sculpture you cam get an idea how high the Cumberland river has risen. when I left it was still getting higher.
Alice Aycock sculpture
Harpeth River Flooding (XMLP)
Harpeth River Flooding
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks. (laughingjester)
I am a wrecker driver for Martin's wrecker service. We were called to remove the vehicles that got caught in the flooding on interstate I 24 westbound near the Bell Road exit in Nashville Tennessee. Of course this is after the waters had subsided. It was roughly 200, 250 cars and trucks that got caught up in the flood..
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks.
Nashville Flooding (jadnash)
This is looking east - the Cumberland River is just on the other side of the buildings.
Nashville Flooding
Parking via Mother Nature (jadnash)
This car drove into the swiftly moving water at the Belle Meade Kroger and was thrown up against a parking deck. Luckily someone got a ladder and dropped it down to break the rear window and the driver climbed out safely!
Parking via Mother Nature

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JB..?


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WHY YOU SAY??? TO SAVE MONEY
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
I don't think all meteorologists can be held liable for their forecasting in 2009.

After all, Joe Bastardi got it right with his prediction for a below average season.
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Quoting Patrap:


One can dat from Brownsville to New York..

"Watch for a major hurricane in late August or early September."

See,I just did.
Sorry Pat, but I have no clue what you just tried to tell me, lol.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Patrap, the news source said that they were going to stop using the dispersants immediately.


Good deal..the dispersal spraying is like peeing on a Hotel fire.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

Watch for a major hurricane in late August or early September."



One can say dat from Brownsville to New York..

"Watch for a major hurricane in late August or early September."

See,I just did.
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Patrap, the news source said that they were going to stop using the dispersants immediately.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Seasonal Forecasts are Like Voodoo dolls.

Know one can tell me where,when and How BAd.
So its all moot.

Every season has its own unique signature.
2010 will be no different.

She will Surprise us,maybe sooner,maybe later.
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Straight from the Farmer's Almanac for Miami:

"Summer will be cooler and rainier than normal, with the hottest periods in early to mid- and mid- to late August. Watch for a major hurricane in late August or early September."
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Quoting TexasGulf:
I heard an interesting comment today from an otherwise very intelligent person. This just goes to show you how LOW meteorologists and tropical forecasters are in public opinion right now.

This lady is definitely no fool, somewhere in the upper 20th percentile IMHO, however she said to me; "Last year they were predicting an above average year and then nothing really happened. Last year, the Farmers Almanac said a major hurricane would hit along the Gulf Coast in July... but it didn't happen. I don't believe that they really know if this year will be active or not."

Yes, she lives within 20-miles of the Texas gulf coast.

If her opinion is any gauge, then you tropical forecasters and meteorologists are ranked very LOW on the ol' believability index. Apparently, the Farmers Almanac ranks higher... but not by much.

Basically, those of you predicting an average season this year had better deliver, if only to keep your own reputation intact. If this year goes bust without a single memorable storm, the public opinion of tropical forecasting will likely drop to zero.

I'm not trying to press any buttons here, but am merely relaying a conversation that happened about 4-hours ago. I don't know what the Farmers Almanac is saying about this year (and could care less), but some of the better known meteorologists had better be right about an active season if they are predicting one at all. It's bad if coastal dwellers are doubting your word.


Farmers are saying a major hurricane will hit Florida in September.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259


Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response


Gulf of Mexico-Transocean Drilling Incident


NOAA update on sea turtle stranding in the Gulf of Mexico‏

DATE: May 05, 2010 16:40:01 CST


* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401





Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240















ROBERT, La. - There have been 38 sea turtle strandings reported from Alabama through the Louisiana delta since April 30. Sea turtle stranding responders working under the guidance of NOAA – who responds to thousands of sea turtle strandings every year – recovered all but one of the turtles. All those recovered were dead except one, which died shortly thereafter. Most of the turtles identified so far are endangered juvenile Kemp’s ridley turtles. No evidence of oil was found on the beaches where the strandings occurred.

“Based on careful examination, NOAA scientists do not believe that these sea turtle strandings are related to the oil spill. NOAA and its partners have conducted 10 necropsies so far – none of ten turtles showed evidence of oil, externally or internally,” said Barbara Schroeder, NOAA national sea turtle coordinator.

The turtles have been sent to the Institute for Marine Mammal Studies in Gulfport, Miss. to determine, if possible, whether their deaths are linked to oil, or another cause. Based on careful examination, NOAA scientists do not believe that these sea turtle strandings are related to the oil spill. NOAA and its partners have conducted 10 necropsies so far – none of ten turtles showed evidence of oil, externally or internally. At least 15 more necropsies of dead sea turtles are planned in the coming days. While the complete results can take several weeks because of the time needed to analyze tissue, preliminary results are available immediately after the necropsy itself, which takes several hours.

Potential Causes
There are thousands of sea turtle strandings reported every year in the Gulf of Mexico. In recent years, sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico have shown a pattern of increased stranding during this time of year. NOAA believes the stranding numbers are higher than normal and are working to understand why.

Sea turtles die of natural causes, and are also affected by natural factors such as algal blooms. Primary human causes for sea turtle deaths include being caught in fishing nets, shrimp trawls and vessel strikes.

Monitoring
Overflights of the oil spill area yesterday showed 30-50 sea turtles (species unknown) swimming in or near the oil spill. As weather allows, NOAA will continue to do daily overflights of the slick, which will guide mitigation efforts, such as burning of oil and application of dispersants. NOAA is working on a plan to address large numbers of oiled sea turtles.

There are five sea turtle species in the Gulf of Mexico. Kemp’s ridley, leatherback, and green sea turtles are listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act; loggerhead and hawksbill sea turtles are listed as threatened.
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I heard an interesting comment today from an otherwise very intelligent person. This just goes to show you how LOW meteorologists and tropical forecasters are in public opinion right now.

This lady is definitely no fool, somewhere in the upper 20th percentile IMHO, however she said to me; "Last year they were predicting an above average year and then nothing really happened. Last year, the Farmers Almanac said a major hurricane would hit along the Gulf Coast in July... but it didn't happen. I don't believe that they really know if this year will be active or not."

Yes, she lives within 20-miles of the Texas gulf coast.

If her opinion is any gauge, then you tropical forecasters and meteorologists are ranked very LOW on the ol' believability index. Apparently, the Farmers Almanac ranks higher... but not by much.

Basically, those of you predicting an above average season this year had better deliver, if only to keep your own reputation intact. If this year goes bust without a single memorable storm, the public opinion of tropical forecasting will likely drop to zero.

I'm not trying to press any buttons here, but am merely relaying a conversation that happened about 4-hours ago. I don't know what the Farmers Almanac is saying about this year (and could care less), but some of the better known meteorologists had better be right about an active season if they are predicting one at all. It's bad if coastal dwellers are doubting your word.
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My Official/Final 2010 Hurricane Season Prediction:

Tropical Depressions: 23

Named Storms: 18

Hurricanes: 9

Major Hurricanes: 5

Category 5 Hurricanes: 2
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Another interesting fact I heard on the news, and explains the dead sea turtles and various other sea animals with no oil impacts, is that the chemical dispersants are causing the deaths. The damage may already be done, without the oil.

HOW CAN YOU PUT SOMETHING IN THE OCEAN WHEN YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT IT'S GOING TO DO TO THE ECOSYSTEM, ARE WE REALLY THAT FREAKING STUPID IN 2010?
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No one was expecting it to go continue to climb past the crazy 15.0+ it was at.. but this still continues to show that El Nino is all but dead.
Neither did I but I do believe the El Niño is seeing its final days.
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Quoting saintsfan06:
I have a silly question.....If LA blocks the oil from entering the marshes and MS, AL & FL do the same thing, where will the oil go??? Are we going to have to keep doing this everytime the wind changes direction???


Well alot of it is treated with dispersant which makes it break up and mix with water, it should sink to the bottom where depending on depth it will destroy quite alot of bottom dwelling ocean life. Bacteria will process some of it, but that takes years, whatever is left is either burned off, skimmed, or will float around until it exits via the FL straits most likely...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SOI down another bit:

20100405,20100504,12.6



No one was expecting it to go continue to climb past the crazy 15.0+ it was at.. but this still continues to show that El Nino is all but dead.
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SOI down another bit:

20100405,20100504,12.6

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I have posted my official/final 2010 hurricane season numbers on my blog, feel free to comment on your opinions.

Link

Or you can wait a couple minutes and I will post my numbers on this blog.

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That shear map posted by Drakoen is most troubling.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting SevereHurricane:
The 12Z ECMWF shows a much stronger negative NAO compared to the 12Z GFS.



Of note, the ECMWF is outperforming the GFS by far right now. GFS last week was showing below average temps and troughiness in the south east for this week. We all know that's not the case.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Is there another Kevin Wave rolling eastward thru the Pacific? I ask because I see plenty of warm waters holding on east of 120W despite the cooler waters going to the surface.

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Latest and greatest Map:
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749. auburn (Mod)
Bloomberg
Hurricane Forecasters See Worst Looming in 2010 Atlantic Season

May 03, 2010, 11:02 PM EDT


By Brian K. Sullivan

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season may rival some of the worst in history as meteorological conditions mirror 2005, the record-breaking year that spawned New Orleans- wrecking Katrina, forecasters say.

The El Nino warming in the Pacific is fading and rain is keeping dust down in Africa, cutting off two phenomena that help retard Atlantic hurricane formation.

Perhaps most significantly, sea temperatures from the Cape Verde Islands to the Caribbean, where the storms usually develop, are above normal and reaching records in some areas.

“We have only seen that in three previous seasons, 2005, 1958 and 1969, and all three of those years had five major hurricanes,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground Inc. “I am definitely thinking that this is going to be a severe hurricane season.”

With less than a month to go before the official June 1 start of the season, predictions are for 14 to 18 named storms. In an average year, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph (62 kph), six of them reaching the 74-mph threshold for hurricanes and two growing into major storms with winds of 111 mph or more, the National Hurricane Center says.

Last year’s nine named storms were the fewest since 1997. Three became hurricanes and none made landfall in the U.S. As the number of hurricanes rises, so do the chances of one striking the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico or Florida’s agricultural areas.

Gulf Threat

The Gulf is home to about 27 percent of U.S. oil and 15 percent of U.S. natural gas production, the U.S. Department of Energy says. It also has seven of the 10 busiest U.S. ports, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. Florida is the second- largest producer of oranges after Brazil.

Energy disruptions could occur if 2010 produces a repeat of 2008, when hurricanes Gustav and Ike slammed into the Gulf Coast about a week apart, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consulting company.

“The good news going into hurricane season is that we have significant amounts of inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels,” he said.

In 1998, storms caused 15 million barrels of oil outages and 48 billion cubic feet of natural gas outages in the Gulf, according to AccuWeather Inc. records. In 2005, it was 110 million barrels and 683 bcf, and in 2008, 62 million barrels of oil and 408 bcf of gas were shut in.

Storms’ Destruction

The usual misery and destruction from a Gulf hurricane hit may be magnified if the spill of crude from a burned-out rig near Louisiana hasn’t been stopped before storms arrive with winds and waves that could push oil inland.

In 2005, Katrina struck Louisiana, Mississippi and part of Alabama, unleashing floods that devastated New Orleans, killing more than 1,800 people, displacing 250,000 and causing about $125 billion in damage, according to the hurricane center.

Joe Bastardi, chief hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania, said he doesn’t think the Atlantic can produce 28 storms this year, as it did in 2005, the most active year on record.

“I have 2005 in the mix” of years to compare to 2010, Bastardi said. “But if I had to choose, I would choose 1998 over 2005.”

In 1998, 14 named storms formed, 11 of which turned into hurricanes, according to Weather Underground’s website. There were 15 hurricanes in 2005.

AccuWeather’s Call

AccuWeather currently calls for 16 to 18 storms to form. Bastardi predicts the current El Nino will change into a La Nina, cooling the Pacific in time to influence the hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.

While El Nino fades, hot spots in the Atlantic set a monthly record in March, breaking a mark set in 1969, and tied the high set in June 2005, Masters said. Hurricanes draw on warm water to form and gain strength.

Colorado State University researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach chose 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005 as the years that shared the most similarities with 2010.

In 1958, 10 storms, including five major hurricanes, formed after an El Nino faded.

In 1969, Hurricane Camille crashed into the U.S. Gulf Coast with winds in excess of 200 miles per hour. The exact strength is unknown because the storm destroyed all the wind measurement devices. It killed 256 people and caused $1.4 billion in damage.

East at Risk

The U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine has a raised risk of being hit by a hurricane this year, said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for Andover, Massachusetts-based WSI Inc.

The Northeast usually has about a 25 percent chance of a hurricane strike, Crawford said. This year, it has a 48 percent chance, close to the 50 percent chance the Gulf of Mexico and Florida have every year, he said.

“We’re not too bullish on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast,” said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. “We’re liking the track threatening Florida and the eastern Gulf, followed by the entire Gulf and the third emphasis would be on the Carolinas.”

Rouiller said he believes a trough will develop along the U.S. East Coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England, shielding the region. That may mean more risk for the Canadian Maritime provinces, which have some oil platforms and refineries.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center will issue its forecast on May 20.

Get Ready

Each year, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center urges everyone living along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts to prepare for a storm strike, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman, said in an e- mail.

“It’s very important to note that a seasonal outlook cannot forecast where and when storms will form, let alone if or where they will make landfall and at what strength,” Feltgen said. “It only takes one storm hitting your area to make it a bad year, regardless of the number of storms that are forecast in the seasonal outlook.”

An example of how one storm can overshadow an entire season came in 1992. That year, only six named storms and one sub- tropical system formed, and only two of those made landfall, according to hurricane center records.

One of them was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated parts of Florida and Louisiana, killing 26 people and causing $26.5 billion in damage. Its top winds of 165 at landfall in Florida made it a Category 5 storm, the most powerful on the five-step Saffir-Simpson Scale.

It was only the third time such a powerful storm hit the U.S.

--Editors: Charlotte Porter, Dan Stets
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I'm back, I see that the El Niño has practically reached it's doomsday.
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Quoting Drakoen:


I think the Caribbean and Bahamian regions. Areas around the Greater Antilles.

Stormwatcher: Looks like it may get busy on our side of the Caribe here? Thanks for the synopsis/charts Drak.
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Friendly "E" pushing ash into the 20-35,000 ft level inside the "green" dashed lines.
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If we were going by daily's, we'd already be in neutral.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Be careful what you say because that kind of a forecast has a very high bust potential. It is very rare to see a season with 20 or more named storms in the Atlantic Basin. Even though its very risky we can't ignore what is happening right now.

Many of the ingredients are coming into place for a possible/probable active ATL Hurricane Season.

We have lower than normal shear, way above normal MDR temps, lower SAL, a possbile wet season for the Sahel, reducing SAL even more, a decaying El Nino moving towards neutral or weak La Nina, negative NAO helping to re-heat the Gulf of Mexico.

If everything comes together, 2010 will be messy. Its good to be prepared and have a "heads up" for a busy season. BUT, things may not "come together" for a 20 ATL tropical systems. We all just need to watch and wait. Only God knows for sure what will take place, we humans have to wait to find out.
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Quoting TheCname:
Some Accuweather bloggers/ Forums think this will be a below average season.


The bloggers aren't the best place to go there....the official Accuweather forecast is for a much-above-average year.
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Quoting TheCname:
Some Accuweather bloggers/ Forums think this will be a below average season.


They're not the smartest of people to really go to for the tropics.

Some said forum members still think that there will be an El nino present during the heart of the season.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
And any which way you look at it with what you are saying, they will most likely track through the Caribbean. Is that right ?


I think the Caribbean and Bahamian regions. Areas around the Greater Antilles.
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Quoting Patrap:
"blobbing for Invest 2010"

Madden Edition for X-box 360

So,what 09 storm should be on the Cover?


the one that's gunna break its eyewall "this" year.. there IS a Madden curse ya know...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2429
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
may prove to be top season for atlantic

I think this year will come close to 2005 and maybe, just maybe go on top.


Are you saying in # of storms, landfalls etc....
I'm talking about the number of storms, I assume Keeper is too.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think this year will come close to 2005 and maybe, just maybe go on top.


Be careful what you say because that kind of a forecast has a very high bust potential. It is very rare to see a season with 20 or more named storms in the Atlantic Basin. Even though its very risky we can't ignore what is happening right now.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Quoting TheCname:
Some Accuweather bloggers/ Forums think this will be a below average season.

I believe there on some badddd medication!!!!
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Quoting Drakoen:


It depends on the location of the positive height anomalies associated with the negative NAO that governs where the system will go. Positive height anomalies over the Canadian Maritimes favors less troughiness and opens up the southeast and GOM for the potential of landfall. Positive height anomalies over the south favors tracks further south and west with storms coming form the MDR which results in Central America and Mexico strikes.
And any which way you look at it with what you are saying, they will most likely track through the Caribbean. Is that right ?
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Quoting Dakster:
How's the dust coming off of Africa these days. Last year was the year of shear, and I think the year before was the year of dry air and dust.

We need something to control the number of storms. How about the year the A/B High disappeared.


heres latest
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52220
Thanks Homeless and Drak...

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Some Accuweather bloggers/ Forums think this will be a below average season.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
may prove to be top season for atlantic
I think this year will come close to 2005 and maybe, just maybe go on top.
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Quoting Drakoen:


You can check out a blog I made 2 years ago on Dissecting an African Easterly Wave


Complete information there.,thanks.
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How's the dust coming off of Africa these days. Last year was the year of shear, and I think the year before was the year of dry air and dust.

We need something to control the number of storms. How about the year the A/B High disappeared.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Wouldn't the Neg NAO help keep the storms out of the GULF though?


It depends on the location of the positive height anomalies associated with the negative NAO that governs where the system will go. Positive height anomalies over the Canadian Maritimes favors less troughiness and opens up the southeast and GOM for the potential of landfall. Positive height anomalies over the south favors tracks further south and west with storms coming form the MDR which results in Central America and Mexico strikes.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Wouldn't the Neg NAO help keep the storms out of the GULF though?


Yes and no. Think 2008 tracks but more likely 2007. Bad.
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726. xcool
KEEPEROFTHEGATE ."I agree"
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Quoting xcool:
tropical season looks promising.
may prove to be top season for atlantic
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52220
Wouldn't the Neg NAO help keep the storms out of the GULF though?
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The 12Z ECMWF shows a much stronger negative NAO compared to the 12Z GFS.

Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.