Flooding death toll in Southeast U.S. floods rises to 24; oil slick moving little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on May 04, 2010

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The death toll from last weekend's record flooding in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Mississippi has risen to 24, making it the deadliest non-tropical storm or hurricane flood disaster in the U.S. since the October 1998 Central Texas floods that killed 31 when a cold front stalled over Texas. As flood waters recede today, the toll from last weekend's floods is expected to grow higher. Particularly hard-hit was the Nashville, Tennessee area, where ten fatalities were reported. The city had its heaviest 1-day and 2-day rainfall amounts in its history over the weekend. A remarkable 7.25" of rain fell on the city Sunday, breaking the record for most rain in a single day (6.60", set September 13, 1979.) Nashville's third greatest day of rainfall on record occurred Saturday, when 6.32" fell. Nashville also eclipsed its greatest 6-hour and 12-hour rainfall events on record, with 5.57" and 7.20", respectively, falling on Sunday. And, only two days into the month, the weekend rains made it the rainiest May in Nashville's history.

Rainfall records were smashed all across Tennessee, Kentucky, and northern Mississippi over the weekend, with amounts as high as 17.73" recorded at Camden, TN, and 17.02" at Brownsville, TN. According to Chris Burt, the author of the excellent book Extreme Weather, the 13.30" that fell on Camden in 24 hours just missed eclipsing the state's all-time 24-hour precipitation record, the 13.60" inches that fell on Milan on September 13, 1982. Jackson, Tennessee had its rainiest day in its 63-year weather history on Sunday, 7.93". Bowling Green Kentucky had its heaviest 2-day precipitation event on record, 9.67". Records in Bowling Green go back to 1870.


Figure 1. Satellite-estimated precipitable water at 23 UTC (7 pm EDT) Sunday, May 2, 2010. Precipitable water is a measure of how much rain would be produced if all the water vapor and cloud moisture through the depth of the atmosphere were to fall as rain. Values above 50 mm (about 2 inches) are frequently associated with flooding. Sunday's precipitable water image showed a tropical disturbance crossed Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico, dragging a plume of very moist air northwards over the Southeast U.S. Image credit: University of Wisconsin GOES Satellite Blog.


Figure 2. Flood forecast for the Cumberland River in Nashville, Tennessee. Image credit: NOAA.

The record rains were accompanied by a surge of very warm air that set record high temperature marks at 21 major airports across the Eastern U.S. on Saturday. This is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record high temperatures are present. Accompanying this warm air was moisture from a tropical disturbance that crossed over Mexico from the tropical East Pacific over the weekend (Figure 1.)

The record rains sent the Cumberland River in downtown Nashville surging to 51.86' this morning, 12' over flood height, and the highest level the river has reached since a flood control project was completed in the early 1960s. The previous post-flood control project record level was 47.6', set on March 15, 1975 (the river hit 56.2' in 1929, before the flood control project was built.) The river has now crested (Figure 2) and is expected to recede below flood stage by Wednesday morning. There are no further rains in the forecast this week for Tennessee. At least four rivers in Tennessee reached their greatest flood heights on record this week. Most remarkable was the Duck River at Centreville, which crested at 47', a full 25 feet above flood stage, and ten feet higher than the previous record crest, achieved in 1948 (to check out the flood heights, use our wundermap for Nashville with the "USGS River" layer turned on.)

Funding issues to take 17 Tennessee streamgages offline
According to the USGS web site, seventeen Tennessee streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. With up to eighteen people in Tennessee dying from flooding this weekend, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by taking 17 of Tennessee's 94 streamflow gages out of service. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, Tennessee and most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming. Both factors have already contributed to significant increases in flooding events in recent decades over much of the U.S. The USGS web site advertises that users who can contribute funding for the non-Federal share of costs to continue operation of these streamgages should contact Shannon Williams of the USGS Tennessee Water Science Center at 615-837-4755 or swilliam@usgs.gov. Tennessee is not the only state with streamgages at risk of closing down; fully 276 gages in 37 states have been shut down or will be shut down later this year. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.

Oil spill update
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has retreated from the coast, thanks to a slackening of the persistent onshore winds that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past week. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will be light and variable through Wednesday, resulting in little transport of the oil slick. Winds will then resume a weak onshore flow at 5 - 10 knots, Thursday through Friday, then reverse to blow offshore at 5 - 10 knots over the weekend. The net result of this wind pattern will be little transport of the oil slick. The only areas at risk of landfalling oil over the next five days will be the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, and the Chandeleur Islands. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) show weak ocean currents affecting the region during the remainder of the week. These currents will not be strong enough to push any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days, so the Keys and South Florida are safe from oil for now. I'll have a post on the long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current later this week, and a discussion of how a hurricane might affect and be affected by the oil spill.


Figure 3. Forecast location at 6pm CDT Tuesday, May 4, 2010, of the oil slick from the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.

Jeff Masters

Alice Aycock sculpture (laughingjester)
If you saw my other pics of this sculpture you cam get an idea how high the Cumberland river has risen. when I left it was still getting higher.
Alice Aycock sculpture
Harpeth River Flooding (XMLP)
Harpeth River Flooding
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks. (laughingjester)
I am a wrecker driver for Martin's wrecker service. We were called to remove the vehicles that got caught in the flooding on interstate I 24 westbound near the Bell Road exit in Nashville Tennessee. Of course this is after the waters had subsided. It was roughly 200, 250 cars and trucks that got caught up in the flood..
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks.
Nashville Flooding (jadnash)
This is looking east - the Cumberland River is just on the other side of the buildings.
Nashville Flooding
Parking via Mother Nature (jadnash)
This car drove into the swiftly moving water at the Belle Meade Kroger and was thrown up against a parking deck. Luckily someone got a ladder and dropped it down to break the rear window and the driver climbed out safely!
Parking via Mother Nature

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318. Given the location and strength of the Bermuda High, Tropical Cyclones are more likely to follow pattern like the one in 2004 (which means strikes along the Florida Peninsula). But with SSTs the way they are the number of storms could be more like 2005.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Well, this years season does favor the area you speak of... but you never know. Anywhere from Texas to Maine is fair game so everyone should be prepared.
Um...actually, the Se coast of Fla, east coast of Fla, Fla panhandle westwards, especially if the A/B high stays as far west as currently situated, and/or builds a second blocking ridge eastward as Storm alluded to last night.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this may be some good news


Another interesting question is what effect the oil spill could have on a hurricane?

Feltgen said that if an oil slick is large enough - on the order of several square miles - it could slow or even prevent the genesis of a hurricane or tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico because the oil layer would prevent the evaporation of seawater, which is crucial for a hurricane or storm to gather power.


People keep forgetting that ocean waves that are generated by a tropical system, can push the oil away from its path.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


I've been in a Cat. 2 Hurricane, and I think its safe to stay then, if your house is sturdy. We were surronded by trees though, and that may not be the best idea. I would never stay in a Hurricane over Cat. 2 Strength...


I would if I was away from the water. The NHC agrees. "Run from the water Hide from the wind"
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Quoting MrstormX:


Well, this years season does favor the area you speak of... but you never know. Anywhere from Texas to Maine is fair game so everyone should be prepared.


Why does this year favor that area? I thought it was too early to see any long term patterns?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




vary good post


but....


what dos Hurricane Katrina have too do with my post can any one ask me that my post dos not have any thing too do with Hurricane Katrina or any city a long the gulf coast



i re post the ?



this may be some good news


the oil may keep hurricanes at bay or weaker with the oil in the gulf




Another interesting question is what effect the oil spill could have on a hurricane?

Feltgen said that if an oil slick is large enough - on the order of several square miles - it could slow or even prevent the genesis of a hurricane or tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico because the oil layer would prevent the evaporation of seawater, which is crucial for a hurricane or storm to gather power.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20100504/sc_livescience/hurricaneseasoncouldhaltoilspillcleanup


The article implies that this is good news for Hurricane season but completely ignores the 5.5 million folks in harms way. The zeitgeist of that nation has been focused on the gulf coast post-K and it should include the east coast too thats all
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Just a post for curiosity's sake, I happened to notice the entire nexrad system in the southeastern US seems to be having quite a bit of ground interferance.

I've never seen it happen on so many at once, and was wondering, what exactly would cause this?

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=d4&size=2x&type=loop

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Quoting doabarrelroll:
I really think people need to me more concerned with the dangers Hurricanes present in South East Florida. The focus as really shifted


Well, this years season does favor the area you speak of... but you never know. Anywhere from Texas to Maine is fair game so everyone should be prepared.
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.
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Quoting doabarrelroll:


which completely ignores the fact the Hurricanes mostly form in the Atlantic or Caribbean. Hurricane Katrina has really shifted the focus away from the fact that Miami is by far the most likely target and probably the worst case scenario target




vary good post


but....


what dos Hurricane Katrina have too do with my post can any one ask me that my post dos not have any thing too do with Hurricane Katrina or any city a long the gulf coast



i re post the ?



this may be some good news


the oil may keep hurricanes at bay or weaker with the oil in the gulf




Another interesting question is what effect the oil spill could have on a hurricane?

Feltgen said that if an oil slick is large enough - on the order of several square miles - it could slow or even prevent the genesis of a hurricane or tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico because the oil layer would prevent the evaporation of seawater, which is crucial for a hurricane or storm to gather power.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20100504/sc_livescience/hurricaneseasoncouldhaltoilspillcleanup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
Quoting Tazmanian:
this may be some good news


Another interesting question is what effect the oil spill could have on a hurricane?

Feltgen said that if an oil slick is large enough - on the order of several square miles - it could slow or even prevent the genesis of a hurricane or tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico because the oil layer would prevent the evaporation of seawater, which is crucial for a hurricane or storm to gather power.


Ehh... I guess its kind of good news... but not really. Think about it like this if a major hurricane, or large hurricane (ie. Ike) is bearing down on the Gulf chances are the storms surge alone will actually push the oil inland, and by the time the circulation center gets to the oil spill source any impact would be minimal.

The good news is, that if what you say about the oil actually holds true then tropical storms development will be limited in that area. In the past storms like Edouard, Claudette, and 2002s Bertha have formed in that exact area. Overall however the oil leak itself is probably worse then a moderate strength tropical storm.
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Workers clean oil off of second bird rescued

Posted on May 4, 2010 at 8:06 PM

The National Wildlife Federation has cleaned up the second bird that they've found. Here's a video of them cleaning the brown pelican, Louisiana's state bird.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Pcola Dan, See Post 290.
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Gulf of Mexico-Transocean Drilling Incident

Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response/www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com


DATE: May 04, 2010 20:13:17 CST
NOAA Closes Commercial and Recreational Fishing in Oil-Affected Portion of Gulf of Mexico

WASHINGTON — NOAA is restricting fishing for a minimum of ten days in federal waters most affected by the BP oil spill, largely between Louisiana state waters at the mouth of the Mississippi River to waters off Florida’s Pensacola Bay (click here for map). The closure is effective immediately. Details can be found here: http://sero.nmfs.noaa.gov/. Fishermen who wish to contact BP about a claim should call (800) 440-0858.

“NOAA scientists are on the ground in the area of the oil spill taking water and seafood samples in an effort to ensure the safety of the seafood and fishing activities,” said Dr. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA Administrator, who met with more than 100 fishermen in Louisiana's Plaquemines Parish on Friday night. “I heard the concerns of the Plaquemines Parish fishermen as well other fishermen and state fishery managers about potential economic impacts of a closure. Balancing economic and health concerns, this order closes just those areas that are affected by oil. There should be no health risk in seafood currently in the marketplace.”

“We stand with America's fisherman, their families and businesses in impacted coastal communities during this very challenging time. Fishing is vital to our economy and our quality of life and we will work tirelessly protect to it," said Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke. NOAA is a bureau of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The federal and state governments have strong systems in place to test and monitor seafood safety and to prohibit harvesting from affected areas and keeping oiled products out of the marketplace. NOAA Fisheries is working closely with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the States to ensure seafood safety, by assessing whether seafood is tainted or contaminated to levels that pose a risk to human health.

“There are finfish, crabs, oysters and shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico near the area of the oil spill,” said Roy Crabtree, NOAA Fisheries Southeast Regional Administrator. “The Gulf is such an important biologic and economic area in terms of seafood production and recreational fishing.”

According to NOAA, there are 3.2 million recreational fishermen in the Gulf of Mexico region who took 24 million fishing trips in 2008. Commercial fishermen in the Gulf harvested more than 1 billion pounds of finfish and shellfish in 2008.

NOAA is working with the state governors to evaluate the need to declare a fisheries disaster in order to facilitate federal aid to fishermen in these areas. NOAA fisheries representatives in the region will be meeting with fishermen this week to assist them. The states of Louisiana and Mississippi have requested NOAA to declare a federal fisheries disaster. BP will be hiring fishermen to help clean up from the spill and deploy boom in the Gulf of Mexico. Interested fishermen should call (425) 745-8017.

NOAA will continue to evaluate the need for fisheries closures based on the evolving nature of the spill and will re-open the fisheries as appropriate. NOAA will also re-evaluate the closure areas as new information that would change the dimension of these closed areas becomes available.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.


Oil Spill Claims Information

British Petroleum is now accepting claims for the Gulf Coast oil spill. Please call BP’s helpline at 1-800-440-0858.

See a BP fact sheet here for additional information

If you are not satisfied with BP’s resolution, there is an additional avenue for assistance available through the Coast Guard once BP has finalized your claim. Those who have already pursued the BP claims process can call the Coast Guard at 1-800-280-7118.

More information about what types of damages are eligible for compensation under the Oil Pollution Act as well as guidance on procedures to seek that compensation can be found below and at www.uscg.mil/npfc.

For more information about the response and recovery efforts and to sign up for updates from the Joint Information Center, go to http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com
ShareThis
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Quoting Tazmanian:
this may be some good news


Another interesting question is what effect the oil spill could have on a hurricane?

Feltgen said that if an oil slick is large enough - on the order of several square miles - it could slow or even prevent the genesis of a hurricane or tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico because the oil layer would prevent the evaporation of seawater, which is crucial for a hurricane or storm to gather power.


which completely ignores the fact the Hurricanes mostly form in the Atlantic or Caribbean. Hurricane Katrina has really shifted the focus away from the fact that Miami is by far the most likely target and probably the worst case scenario target
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Quoting bappit:
It all depends on where you live. If they tell you to leave, you better well do it. People panicked in Houston with Rita. They left before a hurricane warning was ever issued.

For all those people who lived in areas that had evacuation orders, of course you should leave, but most of Houston is not in an evacuation zone. Also, a lot of the deaths could have been avoided by people protecting themselves from heat stroke/heat exhaustion.

I doubt it will happen like that again though ... right? Everyone was freaked out by Katrina. Two cat 5's in the Gulf in almost the same month like that? No way ... right?
Oh, I've learned NEVER to say, "Oh, it won't happen again", or "It can't possibly happen again". Having lived in Houston now 35 years I've seen to many floods and tropical storms here to say it can't happen. It will, eventually.
And "homelesswanderer", it is a tough call to make. Even though we're 50 miles from the coast on the NE side of town, I too almost got us out of town. But calmed myself down and realized I'd done the best I could to get us ready. If we were living on the coast, we'd have gone WAY before the evac was ordered.
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this may be some good news


Another interesting question is what effect the oil spill could have on a hurricane?

Feltgen said that if an oil slick is large enough - on the order of several square miles - it could slow or even prevent the genesis of a hurricane or tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico because the oil layer would prevent the evaporation of seawater, which is crucial for a hurricane or storm to gather power.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
Quoting KoritheMan:


According to the NHC official tropical cyclone report, Katrina landfalled near Buras with an intensity of 110 kt, just under Category 4 status.

See for yourself.


Sure did,,we were here.

..most werent running round with Hand Held anemometers neither.

If ya Focus on those Cat Numbers all tea time,instead of the Impact,,one could miss the Hurricane and drive right off a cliff..into the GOM



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
With Rita roads were clogged at 5 am Thursday. The first hurricane warning came out about 5 or 6 hours later--and that was to provide extra lead time for an evacuation. Gasoline was gone by then. Food stores were empty.

I was told that the employees who would have delivered more gasoline to the gas pumps had taken off. No one had thought the thing through.

So they had a meeting today to further refine their plans and lessons learned.

Here's a link to another news story.

http://www.click2houston.com/weather/23454458/detail.html

"If you live in surf zone you need to evacuate. If you don't live in a surf zone, but want to evacuate just because you think you will lose power, we ask you to reconsider," said Sanchez.

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Oil Spill Video: Tuesday update May 4, 2010













BP attaches shut-off valve, will begin shipping containment structures for Gulf of Mexico oil spill
By Rebecca Mowbray, The Times-Picayune
May 04, 2010, 8:01PM





In a two-step effort to contain a spewing Gulf of Mexico oil spill, BP on Tuesday attached a shut-off valve to one leak and said that today it will begin transporting the first of two giant containment structures meant to corral two remaining two leaks at the site.

Doug Suttles, chief operating officer of BP, said in a conference call Tuesday that robotic vehicles working undersea were able to cut off the end of the drill pipe and install a valve over the 6-inch wide pipe, which is laying on the ocean floor in 5,000 feet of water.

A timeline of the Gulf oil rig explosion and spill

The next challenge for the remotely operated vehicles will be to crank the valve shut to close one of the three leaks that are releasing 210,000 gallons of oil into the water each day.

Closing the valve won't reduce the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, Suttles said, but it will reduce the number of sites that BP has to worry about.

Efforts to seal the remaining two leaks will take a big step forward Wednesday at noon when the first "coffer dam" built during the past few days at a fabrication yard in Golden Meadow begins its 12-hour journey to the accident site.

The four-story, crypt-like structure will be lowered onto the seabed by Transocean Ltd.'s 835-foot long drill ship Discovery Enterprise, isolating one of the remaining two leaks from the ocean around it. Mudflaps will keep the 70-ton coffer dams from sinking more than a few feet into the ocean floor, BP spokesman Toby Odone said.

Coffer dams no long-term solution

Coffer dams don't actually stop the oil from flowing, but rather allow BP to contain the oil and keep it out of the Gulf of Mexico while a permanent fix is under way.

The long-term solution is for BP to drill a "relief well" or second pathway to the original well pipe, and inject a liquid that is more dense than oil to stop it. Just like the original well took a few months to drill, Odone said, it will take two to three months to drill a relief well through the rocky ocean floor and intersect the original well.

Once the coffer dams are in place, BP will attach a drill pipe to the top that will connect to the Discoverer Enterprise, and if all goes well, pressure will make any oil and gas in the well flow up the chimney, because the petroleum is lighter than water.

The ship will capture the oil and transfer it to a shuttle tanker on loan from the Brazilian oil company Petrobras, which will transfer it to shore. Any gas that comes up the pipe would be burned off.

The first coffer dam should reach the accident site around Wednesday about midnight, Suttles said. It will take another 48 hours to lower it onto the ocean floor and get it properly situated, and then a few more days before oil begins bubbling up to the drill ship.

Because it is always dark in 5,000 feet of water and the remotely operated vehicles are equipped with lights, Odone said the work will proceed around the clock..

A problem of physics

Ted Bourgoyne, professor emeritus of petroleum engineering at Louisiana State University, said that getting the oil to flow nearly a mile up the drill pipe to the ship will be tough.

"It's pretty challenging. I don't think it's ever been tried in this deep a water," Bourgoyne said. "We'll have to see if we get a good chimney effect going and and we get a good flow of oil up the pipes or whether it just bubbles out the bottom. You'd have to do some pretty good modeling on that."

BP probably hasn't had much time to analyze the composition of the oil and gas coming from the well and create models for what it will take to make it flow properly up the pipe, Bourgoyne said. If there's too much resistance in the pipe, the oil won't make the long journey to the top.

The best situation, Bourgoyne said, is if there's also a lot of gas in the well, because the lighter gas will help the oil bubble up to the surface.

"It's a gravity-driven phenomenon," Bourgoyne said. "I'm sure they'll get some oil and gas to flow up it, but the question is whether they'll get enough."

New leaks feared

Even if BP is successful, Eric Smith, associate director of the Tulane Energy Institute, said the company is concerned that the drilling riser, a larger pipe that forms a sheath around the drilling pipe, might spring additional leaks after the coffer dams are installed because of all the trauma it's been through. "The concern is that that thing has been through a lot of stress," Smith said.

As long as the velocity of the oil is not too fast, Smith believes that BP will try to cut the joint where the riser pipe comes out of the failed blowout protector, and install a new blow out protector on top of the old one.

The idea is that the new blowout protector would be more stable then the containments along the crumpled riser, and could be properly shut off while the relief wells are being drilled so BP doesn't have to keep bringing oil to the surface.

Drilling probably will resume

Smith, who is attending the 70,000-attendee Society of Petroleum Engineers' Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, where the Deepwater Horizon accident is the subject of much chatter and speculation, said that even though BP needs only one route to the original well, the company is actually drilling two relief wells at a cost of about $100 million apiece to make sure it doesn't run into problems.

Once a relief well reaches the original well and stops the oil from flowing, Smith said BP will cap it with concrete for a long-term fix. But after the investigations reveal what cause the explosion, Smith anticipates that BP will reopen the well and resume drilling.

"They want the well sealed until they figure out what's going wrong. Once they figure it out, they'll go in and redevelop that field, because we do need the oil," Smith said.

The well, located roughly 50 miles off the Louisiana coast, has been spewing ever since the oil rig Deepwater Horizon exploded April 20 and subsequently sank.

U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry said Tuesday that weather conditions have improved enough that officials may resume controlled burns of the oil while longer-term efforts proceed. A test burn of about 100 barrels of oil was conducted on Tuesday, and officials are hoping to continue corralling 500 to 1,000 barrels at a time for burning.
Rebecca Mowbray can be reached at rmowbray@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3417. Staff writer Katy Reckdahl contributed to this report.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm glad y'all made it too. I think it was people from different areas going into other towns and counties and then trying to merge. Like you said we had no choice north on 105 then north on 96. We had the graduated zip code evac going on in SE TX side of the border. But I know there were many who didn't go that way. When We merged on 96 in Evadale we were beside a man who had left Port Neches when he was supposed to 10 hours earlier. I hope everyone has learned something.

Thanks to you and Bord for not flaming me. It is a difficult call to make. The only thing I can think would be worse would be not to have an option either no transportation or a safe house to stay in. So look out for your neighbors everyone. Especially if you live where there is no public transportation.

My son, his family and I thought seriously about moving to Galveston, TX in 2007. We decided if there was a CAT 3 in the GOM aiming for SE TX, we'd leave a day before everyone else.

I totally understand how hard it would be to evacuate. SE TX highways cannot handle the traffic volume on a "normal day'.

Hopefully they stage evacuations in the future, contra flow and allow exits to be open every 5 miles or so or set up special stations along the way to prevent people from running out of fuel or water. Maybe they can charter buses and have people park their cars to reduce traffic. There is a way to do this, in SE TX and anywhere a hurricane threatens. It will take creativity and planning!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Patrap:


Buras Landfall..Cat-4

2nd Landfall Cat 3 Slidell.



According to the NHC official tropical cyclone report, Katrina landfalled near Buras with an intensity of 110 kt, just under Category 4 status.

See for yourself.
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Quoting southlouisiana:


And what category did Rita end up?


The same.
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.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks to be about .4 or so.



Means we're in neutral category now, correct?
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Quoting southlouisiana:


Glad you made it ok. The memory can play tricks but as I remember it that hurricane changed track late that night. Galveston and Houston were already evacuating when it made its 11th hour tack to the north. That is what made it so bad. Any storm that close though and I have every TV in the house on it all day and night.


I'm glad y'all made it too. I think it was people from different areas going into other towns and counties and then trying to merge. Like you said we had no choice north on 105 then north on 96. We had the graduated zip code evac going on in SE TX side of the border. But I know there were many who didn't go that way. When We merged on 96 in Evadale we were beside a man who had left Port Neches when he was supposed to 10 hours earlier. I hope everyone has learned something.

Thanks to you and Bord for not flaming me. It is a difficult call to make. The only thing I can think would be worse would be not to have an option either no transportation or a safe house to stay in. So look out for your neighbors everyone. Especially if you live where there is no public transportation.
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It all depends on where you live. If they tell you to leave, you better well do it. People panicked in Houston with Rita. They left before a hurricane warning was ever issued.

For all those people who lived in areas that had evacuation orders, of course you should leave, but most of Houston is not in an evacuation zone. Also, a lot of the deaths could have been avoided by people protecting themselves from heat stroke/heat exhaustion.

I doubt it will happen like that again though ... right? Everyone was freaked out by Katrina. Two cat 5's in the Gulf in almost the same month like that? No way ... right?
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
For those of you doubting the Gulf will warm up in time...I heard that Gulfport hit a record high of 90 yesterday. I am not for sure it is a record and have not checked the stats myself but that is what i was told. We did hit 87 in Biloxi today. hot hot hot.
Hous/Galv got to the upper 80's today, supposed to head towards the low 90's by the end of the week, into the weekend. Yep, the GOM will warm up fast. Take a look at the sat. pics--no cloud cover, none.
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Pcola Dan, re: the information on boom placement.
Dan, Those came from a newsletter from Escambia Co. FL.
Here is the URL to their website:
BeReadyEscambia.com
You have to sign up for the newsletters.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes there were deaths in the evacuation. But nobody who wasn't home in those destroyed towns died. It really never ceases to amaze me how someone that is so bad ass they can face down a hurricane will whine to no end about being stuck in traffic. Amazing.

I'm fairly certain there were a lot of people who didn't evacuate and survived. Still you are more likely to die in a hurricane than if you moved, and your life is something I wouldn't bet avoiding a few hours in traffic on
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For those of you doubting the Gulf will warm up in time...I heard that Gulfport hit a record high of 90 yesterday. I am not for sure it is a record and have not checked the stats myself but that is what i was told. We did hit 87 in Biloxi today. hot hot hot.
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...hhhmmm...
Link
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
Quoting bappit:
"the evacuation effort for Hurricane Rita cost over 100 lives and $2 billion." from http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=915&tstamp=200803. He made another post that referenced the Rita debacle, but I haven't found it yet.

Nobody's whining about being stuck in traffic.
Well, at least the city leaders in Houston learned from their mistakes with the evacuation of Rita. Or at least I think they have. I went to work the morning the evac. started at 0530, and I remember coming up on Hwy 59 and taking the overpass to go southbound to IAH. I was absolutely STUNNED to see the traffic backed up northbound looking both ways as far as I could see. And then coming home, what normally takes me 15min took 30min. Traffic was still backed up looking both ways as far as I could see. Cars on the side of the road, dead. Families out of water, food, gas,etc. It was shocking to see. From that mess and tragedy, it's a graduated evac. via zip codes, with fuel to be stationed along the way, and reverse flow on the opposite side freeways. A much better plan in place. And we still lost the electricity for 4 days and no generator. Well, that changed the following year and the genny came in handy after Ike---14days no electrical service.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes there were deaths in the evacuation. But nobody who wasn't home in those destroyed towns died. It really never ceases to amaze me how someone that is so bad ass they can face down a hurricane will whine to no end about being stuck in traffic. Amazing.

You tell 'um girl!! What is better, dying or spending several hours in traffic?

I'd choose the second option!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting presslord:
Order now...while supplies last...
Link

Cute and so true!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting presslord:
Order now...while supplies last...
Link


Hooray! A t-shirt!
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Order now...while supplies last...
Link
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
Good Evening.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting southlouisiana:
That is because you obviously never fought across the wasteland that is a miles clogged road while under martial law. We couldn't go East because Katrina had torn up everything. West was galveston and Houston with too early an evacuation tying up 150 miles of road. That left two two-lane highways north for SW Louisiana and East texas. In 100 degree heat. The first 60 miles took almost ten hours...and like many we had two young babies. No gas, food, restroom stops or water (or any kind of drink). Everything boarded up or state police blockading the exits. Just what you carried.
You can look up the unexplained spike in deaths of those over 65 after Rita. No proof but I always suspected it was the tremendous stress of evacuation in those conditions. My grandmother and two neighbors died within two weeks. They were old already I'll admit but lots of empty houses after all said and done.


Yep was right there in the big middle of it. Trying to keep my elderly parents. My sons family and my 4 week old granddaughter, Me and my husband, daughter, and puppy together. We finally ended up in the same place on day 7. My 90 year old grandmother was luckily taken ahead on a bus to another nursing home. Dad paid for the workers hotel rooms because a lot of them had no money. It took our truckload 19 hours to go 150 miles. I know exactly how it felt. And I know it was stressful. I'm sorry about your family and neighbors passing. But had my family stayed home they would have died. Son's apartment and the nursing home were condemned. Only my parent's house survived. Although had they stayed they would have been in dire straits from the heat and no refrigeration for their medications. Me lost the house and about a hundred different other nightmares. But I can't feel bad about being here to bitch about it. :)
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"the evacuation effort for Hurricane Rita cost over 100 lives and $2 billion." from http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=915&tstamp=200803. He made another post that referenced the Rita debacle, but I haven't found it yet.

Nobody's whining about being stuck in traffic.
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Quoting bappit:
The Houston evacuation for Rita killed over 100 people. It was a fiasco.


Yes there were deaths in the evacuation. But nobody who wasn't home in those destroyed towns died. It really never ceases to amaze me how someone that is so bad ass they can face down a hurricane will whine to no end about being stuck in traffic. Amazing.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
compare maps 2010/2005

African coast reaching 88˚F! Wow!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.