Flooding from record rains kills 11 in Tennessee; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on May 03, 2010

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Nashville, Tennessee remains virtually paralyzed this morning thanks to that city's heaviest recorded 1-day and 2-day rainfall in its history. A remarkable 7.25" of rain fell on the city Sunday, breaking the record for most rain in a single day (previously 6.60", set September 13, 1979.) Nashville's third greatest day of rainfall on record occurred Saturday, when 6.32" fell. Nashville also eclipsed its greatest 6-hour and 12-hour rainfall events on record, with 5.57" and 7.20", respectively, falling on Sunday. And, remarkably, only 2 days into the month, May 2010 is already the wettest May on record for Nashville.

Rainfall records were smashed all across Tennessee and Kentucky, with amounts as high as 17.73" recorded at Camden, TN, and 17.02" at Brownsville, TN. According to Chris Burt, the author of the excellent book Extreme Weather, the 13.30" that fell on Camden in 24 hours just missed eclipsing the state's all-time 24-hour precipitation record, the 13.60" inches that fell on Milan on September 13, 1982. Jackson, Tennessee had its rainiest day in its 63-year weather history on Sunday, 7.93". Bowling Green, Kentucky had its heaviest 2-day precipitation event on record, 9.67". Records in Bowling Green go back to 1870. The University of Wisconsin GOES Satellite Blog has some excellent imagery showing the remarkable plume of tropical moisture that crossed over Central America from the Eastern Pacific and fed the record rains.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for May 1 - 2, 2010 from the Nashville, Tennessee radar. A large region of the Tennessee and Kentucky received over ten inches of rain, with many areas receiving more than fifteen inches.


Figure 2. Flood forecast for the Cumberland River in Nashville, Tennessee. Image credit: NOAA.

The record rains triggered massive flooding that has killed at least eleven people in Tennessee, with two missing. The Cumberland River in downtown Nashville has surged to a height of 51', which is 11' over flood height, and the highest level the river has reached since a flood control project was completed in the early 1960s. The river is expected to crest this afternoon at 11.5' above flood stage, bringing flood waters to a large portion of the downtown area. The mayor has ordered all schools, parks, and libraries closed today, and commuter bus and train services have also been suspended. Five people died in Nashville due to the flooding. The Harpeth River at Bellevue, Tennessee to its greatest flood height since record keeping began in 1921. The river had a depth of 2 feet early Saturday morning before the rains began, and was running at a depth of 29' early this morning, breaking the record of 24.34' set in 1948. (To check out the flood heights, use our wundermap for Nashville with the "USGS River" layer turned on.) The Duck River at Hurricane Mills reached 28.7' yesterday morning before its streamgage stopped operating, its 2nd greatest flood height since record keeping began in 1926 (record: 30.7' in 1948.)

The record rains were accompanied by a surge of very warm air that set record high temperature marks at 21 major airports across the Eastern U.S. on Saturday; 19 more records were set on Sunday. This is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record high temperatures are present.


Figure 3. A portable classroom building from a nearby high school floats past submerged cars on I-24 near Nashville, TN on May 1, 2010. One person died in the flooding in this region of I-24. Roughly 200 - 250 vehicles got submerged on this section of I-24, according to wunderphotographer laughingjester, who was a tow truck operator called in to clear out the stranded vehicles.

Funding issues to take 17 Tennessee streamgages offline
According to the USGS web site, seventeen Tennessee streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. With up to thirteen people in Tennessee dying from flooding this weekend, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by taking 17 of Tennessee's 94 streamflow gages out of service. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, Tennessee and most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming. Both factors have already contributed to significant increases in flooding events in recent decades over much of the U.S. According the landmark 2009 U.S. Climate Impact Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, "the amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places." The USGS web site advertises that users who can contribute funding for the non-Federal share of costs to continue operation of these streamgages should contact Shannon Williams of the USGS Tennessee Water Science Center at 615-837-4755 or swilliam@usgs.gov. Tennessee is not the only state with streamgages at risk of closing down; fully 276 gages in 37 states have been shut down or will be shut down later this year (Figure 4.)


Figure 4. Streamgages that have been discontinued or are being considered for discontinuation or for conversion from continuous record discharge to stage-only stations. Funds for these 276 threatened streamgages are from the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. For those streamgages that have already been discontinued, extensive efforts were made to find another funding source; however, when no funding was made available the streamgages had to be discontinued. For those streamgages at risk for discontinuation, the current funding source has indicated that it can no longer fund the streamgage. Efforts are currently underway to identify another funding source for the operation of these streamgages; however, if no funding is identified, then these streamgages will have to be discontinued also. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.

Oil spill update
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has retreated from the coast, thanks to a slackening of the persistent onshore winds that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past week. Onshore winds of 10 - 15 knots will continue today, according to the latest NWS marine forecast, then shift to sideshore (out of the west) on Tuesday, as a cold front passes. Winds will then resume a weak onshore flow at 5 - 10 knots, Wednesday through Friday. These winds should cause only a slow transport of the oil slick towards the coast. I don't expect the spill will affect any land areas for the remainder of the week, with the possible exception of the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana and the Chandeleur Islands. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) show weak ocean currents affecting the region during the remainder of the week. These currents will not be strong enough to push any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days, so the Keys and South Florida are safe from oil for now.


Figure 5. Previous location and forecast location for tomorrow of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.

Jeff Masters

Flooding on I-24 (XMLP)
Flooding on I-24
Lick Creek Bridge (Wingman100)
God is cleaning out the creek and I think making a statement about cleanliness
Lick Creek Bridge
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks. (laughingjester)
I am a wrecker driver for Martin's wrecker service. We were called to remove the vehicles that got caught in the flooding on interstate I 24 westbound near the Bell Road exit in Nashville Tennessee. Of course this is after the waters had subsided. It was roughly 200, 250 cars and trucks that got caught up in the flood. The debris to left is actually the remnants of a portable classroom that floated alongside the interstate and eventually rolled over and disintegrated.
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks.

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360. taco2me61
9:56 PM GMT on May 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:
Quote Obama from his Sunday speech:

And that's why the federal government has launched and coordinated an all-hands-on-deck, relentless response to this crisis from day one. After the explosion on the drilling rig, it began with an aggressive search-and-rescue effort to evacuate 115 people, including three badly injured. And my thoughts and prayers go out to the family of the 11 workers who have not yet -- who have not been found.

When the drill unit sank on Thursday [4/22/2010], we immediately and intensely investigated by remotely operated vehicles the entire 5,000 feet of pipe that's on the floor of the ocean. In that process, three leaks were identified.

SPILL OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE DETERMINATION: 4/29/2010

His remark "And that's why the federal government has launched and coordinated an all-hands-on-deck, relentless response to this crisis from day one," is LAUGHABLE!



I have to say that I agree with this and "If Obama was overseeing this from day one why would it take him 8 days to come on TV to say that".... and if so he missed a heck of a chance to get back on TV....
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
359. dfwWxDude
9:55 PM GMT on May 03, 2010
2 to 3 months, read that the oil would get in the gulf stream, head through the Keys, and up the east coast of Florida.

But I doubt it will go that far. Please do not take this in-activity as in-action. It takes time to formulate plans of attack and get things in place. Granted they should have had some of these things ready to go. Think they will now.

Read articles today where they have multiple strategies, including cutting off the existing well stack, and putting on another that works. Starting to drill intersecting wells very soon.
Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
358. MiamiHurricanes09
9:54 PM GMT on May 03, 2010
Quoting 2010hurricane:



Probably 2 CAT. 5 hurricanes instead of 1.
If you are speaking about this year chances are that there will be much more than just 2 CAT. 5 hurricanes, more like 3 or maybe 4.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
357. kingy
9:52 PM GMT on May 03, 2010
Quoting CJ5:


You are exactly right! It is pathetic how everyone is acting about this. It shows what is wrong with our society. The first thing is find someone to blame and villify them as quickly as possible. Heck, lawsuits and demonizing began happening within hours. How about we address the problem at hand, determine what the cause was, fix the problem and figure out who to blame. That should be the correct order of things.


you're new here aren't you son? your vested interest is a little too obvious though...
356. weathermanwannabe
9:52 PM GMT on May 03, 2010
Is Ike still around?......Trying to figure our how much rain I might get over in the Big Bend North of Tallahassee.........Seems from radar like it's been raining around Defuniak for the past several hours.........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
355. gordydunnot
9:51 PM GMT on May 03, 2010
Does anybody care to explain how declaring something that is 48 miles off coast 5000 ft. below sea surface significant or not, would make any difference in this outcome. People we are in uncharted water so to speak. I am sure we may have some ideas how to handle this in the future. We obviously didn't learn from the Mexico disaster many years ago. I would hope we take a much closer look at deep water drilling and make sure we can handle this in the future instead of excepting, well its a 1 in 10,000 or what ever chance. As we are learning that's way to large of a chance when screwing with the lively hood of 10's of millions of people.Notice no mention of turtles,birds,fish or even those lowly crustaceans/shellfish.

Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
354. Bordonaro
9:50 PM GMT on May 03, 2010
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
353. WaterWitch11
9:50 PM GMT on May 03, 2010
the silent scream........

ever feel like to want others to pay more attention but have no way of getting through!!!!!

sorry my vent, i'll stop now

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1745
351. CycloneOz
9:48 PM GMT on May 03, 2010
Quote Obama from his Sunday speech:

"And that's why the federal government has launched and coordinated an all-hands-on-deck, relentless response to this crisis from day one. After the explosion on the drilling rig, it began with an aggressive search-and-rescue effort to evacuate 115 people, including three badly injured. And my thoughts and prayers go out to the family of the 11 workers who have not yet -- who have not been found."

"When the drill unit sank on Thursday [4/22/2010], we immediately and intensely investigated by remotely operated vehicles the entire 5,000 feet of pipe that's on the floor of the ocean. In that process, three leaks were identified."

SPILL OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE DETERMINATION: 4/29/2010

His remark "And that's why the federal government has launched and coordinated an all-hands-on-deck, relentless response to this crisis from day one," is LAUGHABLE!

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4101
Good post TexasGulf.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Link

Here like the total rain accumulation.. I hope it works..
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Link
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From my understanding...no one predicted the collapse of the rig, which when it sank, ruptured the pipelines below. As a comparison, no one predicted the first World Trade Tower collapse.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Hey Bob.. its been awhile.. Hope ur family is safe and doing good.. I've been real busy of lately and finally had some time to get on here.. Miss everyone on here that I talk too.. Well im gettin pounding by rain and of course the oil spill. Then Hurricane season next month..


Well I am here in Arlington, TX now, since late 10-09.

My daughter, her fiance and my grand son are safe. She was stuck in the I-24 disaster on Saturday. It took her 5 hrs to get home, normally a 25 min ride.

The 2010 Nashville, TN Flood is about #7 or #8 worst in the city's history. Portions of Downtown Nashville, TN are under water!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a real dark and dead GOM

It is dying ever so slowly right now....
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
Quoting xcool:
UPDATED: 8:30 am EDT, May 3, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TRULY GETTING OUT OF HAND

I have never seen the sea surface temperature anomaly map look like the one below. It is the NHC's Reynolds method anomaly map which is updated once per week. This map gives an excellent representation of what is going on with SSTs across the Atlantic Basin and looking at today's edition, it is alarming. Such an enormous area, from Africa all the way to the western Caribbean, is at or above 1 degree Celsius above normal. That alone is enough to warrant serious concern for the upcoming hurricane season. However, the fact that a growing area of 2 degrees Celsius is now manifesting itself raises the stakes even higher. While it is true that sea surface temps alone do not cause intense hurricanes, seeing them this warm makes me wonder what will happen once the upper level winds relax and we do in fact get a hurricane to develop? Even the Gulf of Mexico, which was running well below normal until recently, is now mostly cleaned out of those cold anomalies. This has huge implications for the efforts to thwart the oil leak crisis in the Gulf- the last thing they need is a hurricane to come plowing through.

So what is causing this incredible warm up in the Atlantic? I have discussed this earlier in the year but will address it again. Basically, lower than normal pressures in the sub-tropical Atlantic are causing the trade winds to be weaker and are thus not blowing across the deep tropics as strong, resulting in less evaporation and cooling. That is the simple explanation. Now it seems like it is feeding back on itself as the warm ocean leads to more heat and moisture and thus lower air pressure. Climate models suggest that this pattern will remain in place for the duration of the season ahead- but none of them have predicted this much warming that I can recall. I hate to sound like Mr. Doom and Gloom here but I am serious, I have never seen anomalies this warm across such a large area of the Atlantic- not even during the 2005 season.

With only a few weeks left until the season begins, the Herculean effort in the Gulf to stop the leaking oil becomes that much more important. I do not want to think about what could happen if a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane, were threaten those efforts. I do not know much about how oil and the ocean interact with each other except only that oil is lighter than water. I wonder if a hurricane would act as the ultimate dispersement agent and break up the slick enough to render it far less problematic? The heavy rain, aggitated sea state and strong wind could do a lot to break down the slick and spread it out over a much larger area- resulting in less concentration in a single region. I suppose though that it is a matter of picking your poison. Unless the oil just goes away, there is no good outcome. However, with the clock ticking towards the start of the hurricane season, it is something that needs to be considered and I would assume that the powers that be who are involved with the efforts are well aware of this added urgency.

I will post another update here on Wednesday with a look at long range computer models as well as some thoughts about our June 1 broadcast as we open the 2010 hurricane season.





Probably 2 CAT. 5 hurricanes instead of 1.
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342. CJ5
Quoting TexasGulf:
I hope people aren't too quick to villify BP for this problem. There, but for the grace of God, goes a lot of other corporations. It was a horrible accident. Placing blame might make us feel better about ourselves, but at this point we should rather work with BP and local recovery resources. Afterward, we can learn enough to perhaps prevent future accidents.


You are exactly right! It is pathetic how everyone is acting about this. It shows what is wrong with our society. The first thing is find someone to blame and villify them as quickly as possible. Heck, lawsuits and demonizing began happening within hours. How about we address the problem at hand, determine what the cause was, fix the problem and figure out who to blame. That should be the correct order of things.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
334 agreed
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340. DDR
When we get floods here in Trinidad people make the most of it,they go fishing and boating down highways.Amazing
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Things in Nashville, TN is getting worse. The Army Corps of Engineers are talking about discharging water from 3 dams into the Cumberland. No definite time frame has been given.

The Cumberland River is expected to crest at 8PM CDT at 52.5', in the number 7 worst flooding at downtown Nashville.

Evacuating a TN Penitentiary in NW Nashville, TN.


Hey Bob.. its been awhile.. Hope ur family is safe and doing good.. I've been real busy of lately and finally had some time to get on here.. Miss everyone on here that I talk too.. Well im gettin pounding by rain and of course the oil spill. Then Hurricane season next month..

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so how long before they compare this disaster to chernoble or three mile island
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336. CJ5
Quoting kingy:
the very fact that BP could get mixed up about whether or not they had stemmed the flow of oil is worrying. Why have the feds not simply seized ownership of the whole shabang ? BP are getting the bill anyway, but what do they know about anything other than drilling? The fact that most of this oil is out at sea and not yet plastered over the beaches has lulled the authorities into too much complacency.


The .gov is not the professionals. BP and the industry are the experts and they know a lot more than just drilling.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
335. DEKRE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


This blog entry from a long time ago sort of explains it. Don't know if it is still the same.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


This blog entry from a long time ago sort of explains it. Don't know if it is still the same.


Thanks
Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
For all those bloggers who would like to use some form of controlled underwater blast to pinch the pipe shut, please keep this number in mind... 100,000 barrel/day .

That's what a serious OOOPPSY could cost. Right now, the leaks are bad, but the rate of oil flow is at least reduced by the size of the three leaks to 5,000 barrel/day.

If you accidently break the piping or the blast happens to open a significant hole rather than bending the piping inward on itself... you could conceivably make the problem 20 times worse.

In this case, the devil you know is probably better than the one you don't. At least these leaks CAN be contained and oil funneled to recovery ships for remediation. The oil well currently CAN be capped to shut off the current flow rate, although that may take some time.

BP is probably getting the best advice from the best minds in the industry at this point... and paying through the nose for it. Let the experts solve the leakage problems. The best we can do is help deal with the cleanup, economic damages and wildlife issues.

I hope people aren't too quick to villify BP for this problem. There, but for the grace of God, goes a lot of other corporations. It was a horrible accident. Placing blame might make us feel better about ourselves, but at this point we should rather work with BP and local recovery resources. Afterward, we can learn enough to perhaps prevent future accidents.
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Things in Nashville, TN is getting worse. The Army Corps of Engineers are talking about discharging water from 3 dams into the Cumberland. No definite time frame has been given.

The Cumberland River is expected to crest at 8PM CDT at 52.5', in the number 7 worst flooding at downtown Nashville.

Evacuating a TN Penitentiary in NW Nashville, TN.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting tkeith:
Did he have people on the seen? YES!

there ya have it, factually the guvment has been on the scene since day 1...


Have you even read PART 300--NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES POLLUTION CONTINGENCY PLAN

A spill of national significance trumps anything! Nine days...NINE DAYS!

Katrina vs Oil Spill.

Same manure...different consistency.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4101
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
To compare an unexpected oil rig explosion to a predicted Hurricane strike days in advance is ridiculous.


But just depends if they get this oil controlled.. But its a possibility but we can't say it wont or it will.. Right now its up in the air.. With all the predictions and all, it just doesn't look good..
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329. DDR
That house floating down the highway,amazing,tragic.Just when I thought i've seen it all...
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328. DEKRE
Quoting Chicklit:

It's on top of the blogging page. You can set it to "show worst, show average" etc.


I saw that, but what does it mean - bad, average, good?
Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
Did he have people on the seen? YES!

there ya have it, factually the guvment has been on the scene since day 1...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
Quoting Chicklit:
You be careful Panhandle.
"Turn Around Don't Drown" ain't just a cute lil saying. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that report of closed airspace over England was bogus as it doesn't appear the volcano has changed any and there are no warnings on BBC weather.


Will do.. I have no plans to drive until tomorrow.. I sure hope everyone be safe if theres is any weather problems or oil slick that might come your way..
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Quoting tkeith:
Oz, is the Coast Gaurd not part of the guvment?


Is this not a spill of national significance?

The US Coast Guard Commandant had authority to call it?

Did the commandant issue the notification? NO! Did he have people on the scene? YES!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4101
Looks like GA and SC are in for the worst of it in the near future.


Hot today in ECFL. Gonna go out and trim some palmettos as the evening ocean breeze kicks in.
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322. beell
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Beell we've had a reduction in temperature variability too, as the wind has moved to out of the southeast. Maritime influence. Difference between daily low and high has fallen by more than half.


Official KSSI highs and lows.

Apr 29 74/23, difference of 21 degrees
Apr 30 68/78, difference of 10 degrees
May 1 70/78 difference of 8 degrees
May 2, 71/79 difference of 8 degrees

So that buoy flattening in temps is just an air mass change I think.


Hey, SSIG
It is a poorly made graph. The most recent temps are at the far left. Not flattening, a 2 rise in as many days. With NO daily variability from 04/30 onward. Just up. Possibly due to the slick.
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To compare an unexpected oil rig explosion to a predicted Hurricane strike days in advance is ridiculous.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Oz, is the Coast Gaurd not part of the guvment?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
You be careful Panhandle.
"Turn Around Don't Drown" ain't just a cute lil saying. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that report of closed airspace over England was bogus as it doesn't appear the volcano has changed any and there are no warnings on BBC weather.
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Keith...I wish!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting adkinsadam1:
If the oil spill continues unabated for three months, what would the effects be? Does anybody have any detailed thoughts on this? Does anybody have anything a little more useful than "dark" or "bad" or "really bad" lol?


awful
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There are 5084 articles from today that are stating that the government has been "on it from day one."

Wow...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4101
Quoting help4u:
Liberals can never debate they run to their holes and call people names!!90% on this board are libs and they can't take 3 or 4 posters challenge them!!Whimps!!



Like the energizer bunny, they just keep on going............................
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If the oil spill continues unabated for three months, what would the effects be? Does anybody have any detailed thoughts on this? Does anybody have anything a little more useful than "dark" or "bad" or "really bad" lol?
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Quoting DEKRE:


How does the filter work?


This blog entry from a long time ago sort of explains it. Don't know if it is still the same.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
Quoting NRAamy:
On biggest enviromental disaster in history!!!!

you mean when Al Gore at that case of Slim Jims and coctail weiners?
got any pics of that?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937

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