Caribbean disturbance splits in two

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on September 26, 2005

Share this Blog
0
+

Caribbean tropical disturbance
The main area of concern today is a tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Hispanolia. This disturbance has now split in two, which should slow down its development. Wind shear values have increased this morning over the leading (western) portion of the disturbance, and are now about 10 knots, which is only marginally favorable for a tropical depression to form. The trailing (eastern) portion of the disturbance south of Puerto Rico has less shear (5 - 10 knots) over it, and this portion of the disturbance is showing the greatest growth in deep convection this afternoon. This portion of the disturbance has the best chance of development. The shear is forecast to remain constant or decrease over the next 48 hours as the disturbance tracks west-northwest at 15 mph. While surface pressures have started to fall, there are currently no signs of a surface circulation, and the disturbance is still relatively small and disorganized. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area on Tuesday, if necessary.

An upper-level low pressure system over Cuba is forecast to weaken and move northwards during the next three days, which would lessen the shear over the disturbance and steer it more to the northwest, as seen in the early track model forecast from the BAMM model, shown below. The latest 12Z (8am EDT) run of the GFS model takes the disturbance across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. These model results are not reliable, given that the disturbance has split in two and that this was not anticipated by the models.

I give this disturbance a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm by Friday.



Mid-Atlantic disturbance
A tropical disturbance located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles remains poorly organized, and is suffering from wind shear imparted by a large upper-level low pressure system to its west. Development of this disturbance is not expected for the next two days.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A cluster of thunderstorms accosiated with the tail end of the cold front that pulled Rita northeast across the U.S. is now emerging over the northern Gulf of Mexico, near the Florida panhandle. Strong upper levels winds should prevent any development in this area for the next two days.

Long range models show the possibility of tropical storm development off the coast of Africa during the week, as well as the Caribbean. We still have about three weeks remaining of the peak period of hurricane season, and I expect two or three more tropical storms will form between now and mid-October.

Rita
I mentioned in my blog yesterday how Port Arthur got a direct hit by the eye or Rita, but escaped catastropic storm surge damage. The image below, constructed by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division based on data taken by the NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft, confirms that this occurred because the east eyewall of Rita with its powerful southerly winds never blew over the bay Port Arthur lies on. Thus, water from the open ocean was not forced up into the bay by the eyewall's winds. The maximum storm surge hit a very sparsely populated area of the Southwest Louisiana coast. The small town of Cameron (population 2000) was the largest town along this stretch of coast, and suffered damage similar to what was seen in Mississippi from Hurricane Katrina. The winds of the east side of the eyewall made landfall due south of Lake Charles, pushing the worst storm surge up to that city.


Figure 2. Winds of Rita at landfall as measured by the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) instrument on the NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 231 - 181

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

231. DocNDswamp
12:18 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
JupiterFL, ...yeah, me too...I'm an info freak.

Buhdog, ...their's a frontal trof coming into the gulf now and another stronger due by weekend. If the upper feature I referred to moves west, then stalls, say near the Yucatan, TD19/Stan will be shunted northward across Cuba and into the Gulf - at which point the 2nd stonger trof will pick it up and pull it N & NE across FLA.

And yes, Cat3 or stronger is very likely possibility.
Looks like the hurricane season from hell has long way to go.

Be back later ya'll.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4788
230. dashwildwood
11:59 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
i agree i believe that the caribbean thing will turn N then NE ahead of the upcoming trof, but then we always have to deal with the trof leaving whatever is left of the storm behind because with it being so far south at this point it most likely wouldnt be able to kick it all the way out into the open atlantic, which leaves it in the NE/E gulf or somewhere just off the east coast between SC and Florida....but thats just my guess at this point its got more of a chance to be wrong than right
229. WillJax
11:55 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
I dunno St. Simons, I was thinking a possible SW Florida landfall earlier today, or maybe even panhandle. Then again I humbly admit that I am no expert.

I'm also wondering what will happen if our Blob Jr. happens to encounter the remnants of Rita. If that were to happen then who knows what path the combined system could take.

Time will teach us!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
228. leftyy420
11:53 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
no problem torn lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
227. WillJax
11:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Yes St. Simons, but I have yet to get any of my questions answered in the Discussion Blog.

My questions:

Question One: Is there an accepted storm dependant formula for estimating hurricane damage? (this came after he was discussing possible formulae for estimating damage).

Question Two
: What is your opinion on the predicted increase in tropical activity? What are the professionals "unofficially" thinking?
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
226. leftyy420
11:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
torn. if blobby jr gets goign in 24-48 hrs itwill be in an enviroment for explosive development and a major can could develop and take a ivan, charley, denis path accross cuba and into the gulf. where it goes we will ahve to see but alot of storms get steered ne when they hit the gulf this time of year so a florida strike would be a possibilty
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
225. tornadoty
11:51 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Sorry for that last post Lefty.
224. tornadoty
11:51 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Sorry for repeating, but I really need to know your thoughts on this question:

In your honest opinion Lefty, do YOU think that a major hurricane could strike SW FL in the next week by way of Blobby Jr.?

Thanks!
223. leftyy420
11:50 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
torn. if blobby jr gets goign in 24-48 hrs itwill be in an enviroment for explosive development and a major can could develop and take a ivan, charley, denis path accross cuba and into the gulf. where it goes we will ahve to see but alot of storms get steered ne when they hit the gulf this time of year so a florida strike would be a possibilty
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
221. dashwildwood
11:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
yea will, that high is massive. Doesnt bode well for the east coast if something gets going in the atlantic
219. leftyy420
11:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
thanks doc, wasn't my apt was the nieghbors and i dunno what he was cooking but it was minor fire. just a little freak as i was taking a nap and there this crazy banging on the door and the fire man was like go got get out now!!!!. i though maybe the apt building got hit by lightning or something as it was raining. i had to grab the kids and run out. didn;t have no shoes or nothing lol. but i was only out in the rain for 20 mins befor they gave the all clear
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
218. WillJax
11:44 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Has anyone noticed how some of the more credible models are predicting a high that will stretch nearly parallel to 30N from the southeast US all the way across the Atlantic? If that were to occur I wonder if we would see some of those Cape Verde waves end up in the Caribbean.

Also Manny, I was thinking that, given the right conditions, a major hurricane could be supported by the SST's in portions of the Gulf (especially if the storm is moving relatively fast). I don't know, however, that a major hurricane could form over those waters.


Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
216. DocNDswamp
11:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Heh Lefty,
Thanks man...sorry to hear about that fire, glad it wasn't serious...
Question..what were you cooking? You know you can't blog and cook at the same time...lol.
Doc.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4788
215. tornadoty
11:42 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Actually, I'm in NW IN, but I have grandparents in C FL, and a strike on SW FL at this time could bring bad conditions to them (Charley came within 50 miles, and they were absolutely CLOBBERED by Frances and Jeanne).

P.S. Today is the anniversary of Jeanne.
214. RobertForsman
11:41 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
It seems like to me that there is more of a tendency for late season storms, coming out of the western Carribean, to cross western Cuba, and then continue north across the Florida peninsula, and then into the Atlantic.
213. weatherboyfsu
11:41 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
I know this....if one comes to florida again like charley.....i will be ready.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
212. Buhdog
11:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Tornadoty...where r u?
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
211. tornadoty
11:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
In your honest opinion Lefty, do YOU think that a major hurricane could strike SW FL in the next week by way of Blobby Jr.?
210. RobertForsman
11:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
One of the worst hurricanes that I can remember was in November, I believe. Hurricane Joan in Nicaragua was a massive storm. It made it all the way to the Pacific side without dropping below hurricane strength. It was promptly given a new name.
209. Buhdog
11:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
I thought Charley took it's path(hard right) because of a trough digging in....not an upper level low. It doesn't really matter what could cause it to do so, but I got smacked really good by the chuckster and I swear it did not break off to the right cuz of an upper level..am I wrong?
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
208. weatherboyfsu
11:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Lefty.........man o man.....people like fussin with ya dont they..........lol.......whether another hurricane can maintain cat 3 or better is easy.......heck yaaaaaaaaa.......no problem.........in the right situation..........has anyone looked at the caribbean....its practically boiling........as I said about 5 hours ago on here........a charley type storm could mess up florida or something that could develop in the bay of campeche could wallop corpus christy......there are still scenarios that could be played out....this season we had to major hurricanes in JULY.....Are you listening.....JULY......Ok....ENOUGH said....we have just had the strongest duo of Hurricanes in the gulf EVER.......so im telling anyone that anything is possible.....especially this year....and maybe more years to come..........and one last thing.....nobody on here has to argue about anything....all the proof is on all the blogs....the time, the words.....the predictions....the proof is in the pudding.....we all know whose predictions are whose.....right or wrong.....who cares .....we are on a blogggggggggggggggggg........lol....we are definitely not professors at a round table for the university of phoenix.........lol
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
207. RobertForsman
11:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
The 1985 version, Lefty. If I remember correctly, the 1985 Juan formed from the same type of low, or very similar, to the low now off the Florida Panhandle. It never made it above CAT-1, but it caused an incredible amount of flooding. If anything develops from this system, I expect it to be very much like the 1985 storm.
206. JupiterFL
11:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
DOC that was awesome. I read this blog for posts like that.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
205. leftyy420
11:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
which juan. 1985 or 2003?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
204. Amorris
11:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Anyone think that what is left of rita will re form in the golf? Link
203. LADobeLady
11:22 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Yes Robert I do. A lot of flooding here in Terrebonne Parish.

Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
202. leftyy420
11:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
good post doc
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
201. RobertForsman
11:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Does anyone remember Hurricane Juan?
200. MJH
11:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
That is a big blob in the carib. Will it fizzle or start to sizzle. If it sizzles it will sizzle up into the gulf. Lot of warm water to work with in the carib.
199. DocNDswamp
11:15 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Hello all...well I was gonna post last nite but the kiddie chatter got out of hand along with the comments of the thrill seeking Rita's-over-what's-next crowd...yeah, it's only Louisiana who gives a rat's behind. Well I'll tell you who - anyone with half a brain who understands the far reaching and long term impact we are left with.

Some may not care but let me give you an example:
Took the boat out yesterday to western Terrebonne Parish (Gibson) to see how far the storm surge had travelled inland - it was too flooded to try going south of Houma. I knew what I'd see, but STILL was shocked at what I saw. Keep in mind, this area is not salty or brackish, but river fed freshwater habitat...or it was - the surge flooded these waterways with 3 to 4 ft. of SALTWATER. The result will be seen within a few days - there will be MASSIVE FISH KILLS ALONG ENTIRE LA COAST as far as 90 miles inland. Already got reports confirming. Commercial fishermen will not have a source to ply their trade for years, although saltwater finfish on the coast will rebound quickly after the now mixed floodwaters drain back into the Gulf. However, that mixed water will negatively affect shrimp and oysters with too much freshwater. We're screwed.

All this happened after Andrew (of course, unknown outside LA) - in the Atchafalaya Basin alone over 175 million fish -90%- of all species perished, wreaking what was one of the premier sportfishing attractions of this country. It took a minimum of 3 years for natural regeneration and many areas have never recovered fully to what they were before. I'm afraid Rita's kill will extend 5 times that...disturbing news for a lot of us.

OK, sorry if the hydrological impact of hurricanes is off topic here - I had to vent. You sure as hell won't learn this on CNN/Fox (damn - they're still in Houston!).

Dr. Masters analysis earlier was spot-on about the Carib. trop wave...
the western blob had convection trying to form or wrap around a center near 15N 74W for about 4 hours then got sheared/blown off as it out ran the apparent low. Convection will likely renew as the eastern flank catches up. I expect TD19 to be recognized by NHC by noon tomorrow, certainly by the 5pm advisory and probably TS Stan (50mph) on Wed. with continued WNW (285) movement @ 15 to 17 mph.

At this point I see 2 viable solutions on it's future track - as Lefty mentioned earlier, a Charley type track or heading west toward TX/MX. If the 2nd track, too early to tell if it curves and slams Corpus Christi or further N and E. Will have better handle when I see the motion of it's LeadingLow, as I call the upper low features that often carve out paths for trop sytems. If the LeadingLow - now over Keys- shifts west and stalls, should be track 1. And if it continues moving west toward MX, track 2.

Also noticed the 1011mb low that dropped down off Rita's tail, now about 60 miles S of Pensacola, moving SSW. Any development would be slow, if at all. Should merge with frontal system approaching from NW by Wed.

Check back later.

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4788
198. dashwildwood
11:11 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
wow this caribbean thing is getting alot of hype already
197. leftyy420
11:08 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
i would have responded earlier but there was a fire in my apt complex and i had to leave the apt for 20 minutes. talk about a rush. just a little kitchen fire so alls well
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
196. leftyy420
10:59 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
sorry hers the link on info from the tmi and the reynolds sst images

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
195. leftyy420
10:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
heres a link so you can read up on both tmi and reynolds. but if u want to look at heat content the reynolds is the image used by noaa, tpc and all computer models.


also manny if u want to show heat content loos u need to show a image form closer to when rita formed. thats why i used the 18th as she was not formed then. as you can see not much heatwas taken from the gulf and most was taken from the loop which will replenish itself woth ease as the temps to 100 meters in the carribean are hott and the carribean is the source for the loop.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
194. leftyy420
10:55 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
the tmi is done with bouys. so where there is no bouiy its extrapulated.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
193. tornadoty
10:54 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
I think the Gulf will see at least on more cat. 3 or cat. 4 this season, and I think that storm will be the disturbance (low) in the Caribbean.
192. leftyy420
10:53 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
and the renyolds is used in the models as it is an adjustment of the tmi. this takes out the errors so the reynolds is a closer image of actual heat content and sst. the tmi is raw data that has large errors. that is hwy the reynolds method is used to filter out the noise and giive a clearer image of the sst in that region
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
191. tornadoty
10:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Tell those in the "swampland" that it wasn't as bad as expected.
190. leftyy420
10:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
its all in the maps u look at. thats the tni version here is the reynolds. just a different perspective. to me looks like lots of heat content



Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
189. Manny
10:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Oh, and one thing I definetly agree with Lefty about is this:

The only reason this isn't as bad as we thought it would be is because it did not make landfall in a heavily populated area. This storm was bad, but it was bad in a swampland.
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
188. Manny
10:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Will,

One thing of note is the Gulf has already had an enourmous amount of heat energy extracted from it by the last 2 major storms. Whether there is enough time for it to heat up enough to support another one is debateable but I feel its marginal at best. I think tropical development is still entirely possible in the Gulf, I just don't think major hurricane intensification is possible in the gulf.




If you look at those images, there has been a lot of heat extracted from the Gulf. Is there enough energy from other places to compensate for that?

I don't know for sure, but I suspect not.

Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
187. hmfynn
10:11 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Is it just my imagination or does the Carib. system look pretty ragged right now? And if there is any circulation, it looks clockwise, not counterclockwise....

But I have untrained eyes for these things

Link
186. Pizzaguy
10:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Just tell me if it has any remote chance of affecting Pensacola and I'm good to go. ;)
185. HateHurricanes
10:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
"Triggered by an intrusion of cold air from Canada? Well, poo. I always liked those people.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
184. turtlehurricane
9:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
i hav updated my blog
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
183. GainesvilleGator
9:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
The Army Corps of Engineers couldn't do much with the New Orleans levy system in the three weeks that followed Katrina. What will they be able to do in the 7 days prior to the potential arrival of "Stan"? Given the weekend state of things, a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane may prove to be pretty devastating.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 744
181. pearlandtx
9:40 PM GMT on September 26, 2005
Ok. Here's my prediction. Wannabe will someday get his butt kicked in a road rage incident. Dude, you need meds.

Viewing: 231 - 181

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.