Tornado kills ten in Mississippi

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:22 PM GMT on April 25, 2010

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A powerful 1/2 to 1-mile wide tornado cut a path of enormous destruction across the state of Mississippi yesterday, killing at least ten and injuring dozens. It was the deadliest tornado in the U.S. since May 10, 2008, when an EF-4 tornado killed 22 people in Oklahoma and Missouri. The damage I've seen so far from photos of yesterday's tornado appears to be mainly of the EF-3 variety, though we will have to wait for the official damage surveys to be sure. The supercell thunderstorm that spawned the tornado or family of tornadoes maintained a continuous circulation from the time the tornado first touched down in Louisiana near the Mississippi border until the tornado reached the Alabama border. This is an extremely rare occurrence. If the 188-mile path of destruction across Mississippi was from a single tornado, it would rank as one of the longest tracks by a single tornado on record. The record of 219 miles is held by the deadliest tornado of all time, the great Tri-State Tornado of 1925 (though there is some dispute over whether this was one tornado or a family of tornadoes.) Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver has a more complete analysis and imagery of yesterday's tornadoes.


Figure 1. Doppler radar storm-relative velocity of the mile-wide tornado that affected Yazoo City, Mississippi On April 24, 2010. This is an unusually wide and strong circulation for a supercell thunderstorm.

More severe weather expected today along the East Coast
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlined a "Slight Risk" region of concern for severe weather today along the East Coast, from Maryland to Northern Florida. Yesterday, SPC had Mississippi underneath the first "High Risk" area of severe weather concern for the year. As usual, you can follow today's severe weather outbreak with our interactive tornado page and our severe weather page..


Figure 2. Severe weather reports for Saturday. Note the long line of red tornado reports extending across the state of Mississippi. These reports originated from a single supercell thunderstorm that spawned one or more tornadoes that carved out a 188-mile lone path of destruction across the state. Image credit: Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Storm Lines (thomasanthony)
A quick line of storm clouds came over Lawrence around 7pm. I forgot to change my ISO back after shooting eagles earlier in low light thus a noisy shot.
Storm Lines
Tornado damage in Choctaw County (richardlove310)
Tornado damage in Choctaw County
Tornado damage in Choctaw County (richardlove310)
Tornado damage in Choctaw County

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Quoting Levi32:
CMC Ensembles also onboard with a strong ridge developing over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in about a week's time, and persisting for many days.

Day 7 500mb heights ensemble mean:



Day 12 500mb heights ensemble mean:

Should allow for a rapid increase of SST's in the GOM.
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Holmes County, Mississippi after tornado.

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CMC Ensembles also onboard with a strong ridge developing over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in about a week's time, and persisting for many days.

Day 7 500mb heights ensemble mean:



Day 12 500mb heights ensemble mean:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
Two maps today for y'all today.

First, the gulf is now barely below normal (compared to what it was) and has warmed significantly over the past 15 days.



Second, Nino 3.4 continues to rise to near .7. Not sure why.

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Moderate convection continues in the far eastern Pacific this morning. The area of strong low-mid level vorticity observed yesterday appears to have mostly dissipated, and the strongest convergence is now confined to just south of Panama. There is a weak 850mb vorticity max associated with low-level turning west of Costa Rica, but this area is now well-removed from the main convection area. Some very slight low to mid-level turning is apparent on visible RGB satellite imagery south of Panama in the vicinity of 6N, 81W.

Westerly surface winds coming across the Pacific associated with a Kelvin Wave will continue to enhance ITCZ activity near Central America for at least the next 10 days, aided by an MJO upward-motion pulse moving over the area. With an upper ridge forecasted to build overhead, this area will continue to be watched for possible formation of a tropical low-pressure area.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
80. OGal
TORNADO WATCH FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA



The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 104 in
effect until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following areas

In Florida this watch includes 4 counties

In east central Florida

Lake Orange Seminole
Volusia

This includes the cities of... Daytona Beach... Leesburg...
Orlando and Sanford.
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Has the up coming season forcast changed any?? Been hearing this could be like another 05 season?? Just getting back in the swing of things...nice to see the same names in here..keep up the great work!!
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Quoting WxLogic:
Quite a bit of ridging in the E CONUS... Drak.


Yea that should help rapidly warm up the GOM
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The NOGAPS EPS shows a 500mb ridge building in the GOM as well:

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Quite a bit of ridging in the E CONUS... Drak.
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Tornado Watch... just issued for my area (CFL).

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

TORNADO WATCH 104 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-007-017-019-035-041-053-069-075-083-095-101-107-109-117-
119-127-260000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0104.100425T1620Z-100426T0000Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS
CLAY FLAGLER GILCHRIST
HERNANDO LAKE LEVY
MARION ORANGE PASCO
PUTNAM SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS
SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
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Good afternoon...
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good morning everyone,
i was wondering if anyone saw the 4.0 eq near alice, tx?
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MJO should be reaching African Coast on May 10th.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS is probably confused in the Eastern Atlantic given that the SSTs are well above average in the region and there has been a predominant synoptic scale upper level anticyclonic circulation in the region over the past 30 days.

I, however, would not be surprised to see our first tropical wave come off the coast of Africa with this strong MJO upward pulse.
Well I would understand, SST's are off the scale. But shear is at 80 knots and rising, at the moment.
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Sea ice update:









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The GFS is probably confused in the Eastern Atlantic given that the SSTs are well above average in the region and there has been a predominant synoptic scale upper level anticyclonic circulation in the region over the past 30 days.

I, however, would not be surprised to see our first tropical wave come off the coast of Africa with this strong MJO upward pulse.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251600Z - 251700Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
FL PENINSULA INTO MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL...GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES
AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED OF AN OFFSHORE TSTM CLUSTER OVER
THE NERN GULF /NOW DEVELOPING INTO DIXIE COUNTY/. AS HEATING
CONTINUES SE OF THIS CLUSTER OVER THE PENINSULA...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT
ONSHORE...GIVEN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /PER JACKSONVILLE VAD PROFILER/. LATEST WRF-BASED OPERATIONAL
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN ADEQUATE HANDLE ON THIS
CLUSTER...EITHER NON-EXISTENT OR DEPICTING WEAKENING TRENDS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKLY FORCED ASCENT THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND
INCREASING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENCE OF TSTMS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 04/25/2010

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ERIE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
COLUMBUS OHIO TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF TSTMS WILL CONT TO FORM THROUGH THE AFTN AHEAD
OF AN EJECTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
40-45 KTS AND MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...RACY/HALE
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Quoting AussieStorm:

NOGAPS Saturday, 1 May 2010 16:00:00 GMT+1000 (AUS Eastern Standard Time)


severe weather threat again next Thurs-Fri-Sat???


thats next on the hit list
once less than 96 hrs out
then its a issue to look at
the next couple of runs will tell the tale this next round
may be even stronger
than the round just passed
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Quoting AussieStorm:

NOGAPS Saturday, 1 May 2010 16:00:00 GMT 1000 (AUS Eastern Standard Time)


severe weather threat again next Thurs-Fri-Sat???
ECMWF showing it too. Looks like severe weather again, but your in Australia, you don't have to worry about it, lol.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's 348 hours out, you have better chances of winning the Powerball 15 times in a row than that happening. If you see the same scenario play out with good time line progression and for a couple more runs until it reaches less than 200 hours out, then we look at other models like the CMC, NOGAPS, EMCWF, etc... We need to wait until the GFS gets a good update in July to actually take the long-term forecast seriously.

NOGAPS Saturday, 1 May 2010 16:00:00 GMT+1000 (AUS Eastern Standard Time)


severe weather threat again next Thurs-Fri-Sat???
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
Morning everyone....getting ready for the up coming season..seems this could be a very interesting year??
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60. JRRP
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's 348 hours out, you have better chances of winning the Powerball 15 times in a row than that happening. If you see the same scenario play out with good time line progression and for a couple more runs until it reaches less than 200 hours out, then we look at other models like the CMC, NOGAPS, EMCWF, etc... We need to wait until the GFS gets a good update in July to actually take the long-term forecast seriously.

yeah i know :P
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Quoting MrstormX:
29.) This is perhaps a bit off topic but the weather channel actually did a decent job with their coverage yesterday, im a bit surprised.

I was told they put on a program between 1-2am then Huntsville and after wards was getting hammered, while the threat was still very much going on.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


6z GFS. An African storm and a Caribbean storm in May?

Pretty funny stuff.

Oh, and do you see the low over Cuba, that thing might be a T.S, lol, I tend not to look past 240 hours on the GFS that way I don't go insane. When the GFS gets a major update in July then I might look past 300 hours for recreational purposes, lol.
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Quoting JRRP:


Big, intense MJO should allow for great conditions for development starting April 30th in the Caribbean. Now all we need is a wave to get things going, that is the only way we will have an early May cyclone in the Caribbean.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good Morning

Not much going on the 06z GFS. Nor in the 00z NOGAPS and CMC, just a lot of convection over Central America and the East Pacific.


6z GFS. An African storm and a Caribbean storm in May?

Pretty funny stuff.

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Quoting JRRP:
strong wave near Africa
That's 348 hours out, you have better chances of winning the Powerball 15 times in a row than that happening. If you see the same scenario play out with good time line progression and for a couple more runs until it reaches less than 200 hours out, then we look at other models like the CMC, NOGAPS, ECMWF, etc... We need to wait until the GFS gets a good update in July to actually take the long-term forecast seriously.
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Morning KOG



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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51. JRRP


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Good Morning

Not much going on the 06z GFS. Nor in the 00z NOGAPS and CMC, just a lot of convection over Central America and the East Pacific.
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49. JRRP
strong wave near Africa
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Quoting stillwaiting:
hot and really humid today in orlando,thinking there is a good possibility of some severe wx going into this evening,IMO

Within the next 3-4 hours, there should be a Tornado Watch up for parts of S GA into FL and for parts of the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic region.

This will be a quieter day, but there will probably be a handful of tornadoes and a whole bunch of hail/wind reports.
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47. OGal
Hey Jeff, here in Winter Springs. Feels like a strange weather day here in Central Florida. Glad that Nadia Bloom is not missing this weekend. Hope you have a great day and keep us posted if you see anything we should know about.
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hot and really humid today in orlando,thinking there is a good possibility of some severe wx going into this evening,IMO
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Quoting winter123:
weird... really thin rain band across southern new york and new england that refuses to move north. I want rain though :(


As the surface Low moves eastward, the rain shield should press northward.
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Quoting Patrap:
A "smoothed" file from yesterdays Deadly Yazoo City Tornado...



That was an awesome, scary and deadly tornado.
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weird... really thin rain band across southern new york and new england that refuses to move north. I want rain though and it doesnt look like its gonna happen today :(

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A "smoothed" file from yesterdays Deadly Yazoo City Tornado...


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE/EC/SE OH...SW/SC PA...NRN/ERN WV...MD...N VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251456Z - 251700Z

TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE UPR OH VLY REGION
AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EARLY EVENING TOWARD THE MID-ATLC REGION.
STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN HAIL UP TO PING-PONG SIZE...DMGG WINDS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO
EJECT FROM THE BASE OF THE IL UPR LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID/UPR OH VLY BY MID-AFTN. OCCLUDED FRONT WAS APPROACHING
KCMH/KHTS AT 14Z WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SURGING NWD INTO NRN
OH...SWRN PA AND ALL BUT THE ERN WV PNHDL. EXPECT THE WRMFNT TO
JUMP TO JUST N OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY EARLY AFTN SUCH THAT THE
ENTIRE UPR OH VLY EWD INTO MD WILL RESIDE IN MLCAPES APPROACHING
1500 J/KG.

TSTMS PRESENT OVER NWRN OH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD ESE ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE MID OH VLY BY EARLY AFTN...WITH ENE MOVEMENT
ACROSS THE UPR OH VLY AND INTO NRN/ERN WV/WRN MD/SCNTRL PA/NRN VA BY
EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT COOL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS. EXPECTED ORIENTATION
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WITH RESPECT TO THE INITIATION ZONES
WILL FAVOR A MIX OF DISCRETE STORMS /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/ AND LINE
SEGMENTS WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT LOCATIONS INVOF THE MASON-DIXON LINE FROM NRN
WV/SRN PA INTO MD/NRN VA WHERE MORE ROBUST LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED AMIDST STRONGER 0-1KM SRH. HOWEVER...A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FARTHER W IN THE UPR OH VLY.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
The pressure at my house is 997mb and still falling, how strong is this low?

At 983 MB or 29.03":
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The pressure at my house is 997mb and still falling, how strong is this low?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.