Tornado kills ten in Mississippi

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:22 PM GMT on April 25, 2010

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A powerful 1/2 to 1-mile wide tornado cut a path of enormous destruction across the state of Mississippi yesterday, killing at least ten and injuring dozens. It was the deadliest tornado in the U.S. since May 10, 2008, when an EF-4 tornado killed 22 people in Oklahoma and Missouri. The damage I've seen so far from photos of yesterday's tornado appears to be mainly of the EF-3 variety, though we will have to wait for the official damage surveys to be sure. The supercell thunderstorm that spawned the tornado or family of tornadoes maintained a continuous circulation from the time the tornado first touched down in Louisiana near the Mississippi border until the tornado reached the Alabama border. This is an extremely rare occurrence. If the 188-mile path of destruction across Mississippi was from a single tornado, it would rank as one of the longest tracks by a single tornado on record. The record of 219 miles is held by the deadliest tornado of all time, the great Tri-State Tornado of 1925 (though there is some dispute over whether this was one tornado or a family of tornadoes.) Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver has a more complete analysis and imagery of yesterday's tornadoes.


Figure 1. Doppler radar storm-relative velocity of the mile-wide tornado that affected Yazoo City, Mississippi On April 24, 2010. This is an unusually wide and strong circulation for a supercell thunderstorm.

More severe weather expected today along the East Coast
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlined a "Slight Risk" region of concern for severe weather today along the East Coast, from Maryland to Northern Florida. Yesterday, SPC had Mississippi underneath the first "High Risk" area of severe weather concern for the year. As usual, you can follow today's severe weather outbreak with our interactive tornado page and our severe weather page..


Figure 2. Severe weather reports for Saturday. Note the long line of red tornado reports extending across the state of Mississippi. These reports originated from a single supercell thunderstorm that spawned one or more tornadoes that carved out a 188-mile lone path of destruction across the state. Image credit: Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Storm Lines (thomasanthony)
A quick line of storm clouds came over Lawrence around 7pm. I forgot to change my ISO back after shooting eagles earlier in low light thus a noisy shot.
Storm Lines
Tornado damage in Choctaw County (richardlove310)
Tornado damage in Choctaw County
Tornado damage in Choctaw County (richardlove310)
Tornado damage in Choctaw County

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Video of the Yazoo Tornado from Reed Timmer.

Link

That's some great footage!
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#182: Oops, spelt that wrong. It's TCHP = Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential.
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StormW, do you have MSLP anomalies from the CFS for August and September?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Checking in for the first time this year...what do I see? A long list of 2005 comparisons. I guess I should stock up on AMP and Doritos now before you guys buy 'em all up. Looks like a lot of late nights on the way.
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I'm not liking the looks of that red zone in THCP. It's located directly south of the western tip of Haiti.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
448 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

FLZ036-037-040-252115-
ALACHUA-MARION-PUTNAM-
448 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALACHUA...NORTHERN MARION AND WESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 448 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROMEO...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILLISTON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ROMEO...OCALA AIRPORT...
FLEMINGTON...REDDICK...OCALA...MCINTOSH...LOWELL...ANTHONY...SPARR
AND LOCHLOOSA THROUGH 515 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
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There are some intense thunderstorms in northeastern Ohio that will head into Southern Ontario in several hours. That line includes storm cells that contain multiple former mesocyclones and hailstorms. Yee-haw!
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i was really hoping to see some storms here in east central va this evening....but i dont know if thats going to happen..were hovering around 80...pressure is around 994 and falling....but a dewpoint of 40 isnt going to cut it i dont think....oh well...
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


oh the fun wed be having on here if this was over water...
Name it, noo, name it, noo... lol


LAND HURRICANES!! Run for the hills!
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oh the fun wed be having on here if this was over water...
Name it, noo, name it, noo... lol
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Quoting StormW:
CFS MSLP Mean for Sep. 2010

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />


Very similar to 2005:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Storm,any new thoughts on this year hurricane season?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
pressure at 993mb at my house... this is quite a low and im still dropping rapidly, expecting some huge storms to develop and move through late this evening

997.3 here in Middle Tennessee. It has been dropping slowly all day.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22618
pressure at 993mb at my house... this is quite a low and im still dropping rapidly, expecting some huge storms to develop and move through late this evening

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nevermind. This'll totally miss me.
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Quoting StormW:
CFS MSLP Mean for Sep. 2010

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Good Afternoon Storm. Do you have any new observations pertaining to the upcoming hurricane season?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22618
158. & 161.

Any time!
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153. CybrTeddy

Thanks, that was a serious video
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
-NAO
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95 Patrap "The GOM/Atlantic Spawned 2 invests by June 1 in 2009."
Posted by JeffMasters on
[28May2009] "...with the season's first tropical depression forming four days before the official start to hurricane season."

I prefer looking at the day before TropicalStorm Arlene began forming on 8June2005

24Apr2010

7Jun2005

24Apr2010

7Jun2005

24Apr2010

Kinda puts the ugh into ugly, don' it?
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TCHP in the Caribbean as of Yesterday. That red area of 110 kj cm continues to grow.



Compared to 2009, there was hardly any.


Even stronger than 2005.
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New 18Z TBW Sounding:

Destabilization well under way... TSTM should be intensifying as they approach the W CFL Coast.

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Quoting CycloneOz:


We've agreed to do it again, but out on the plains. It is actually more convenient for me, too...as the plains are not as far away.

So some upcoming weekend when Amarillo - OK City are threatened.

Part of the NWS Area Forecast Discussion out of Norman, OK from 2:41PM CDT today:
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH BRINGING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES START TO INCREASE IN THE
LATER PERIODS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK... WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THOSE PERIODS. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
FORCE MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE REMAINING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE... A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY ALSO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COMBO OF DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE A CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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Video of the Yazoo Tornado from Reed Timmer.

Link
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Caribbean conditions should be on pair with 2005, if not then 2007. I have a feeling that the Yucatan, Nicaragua, Jamaica, and Haiti are at highest risk this year. Those Caribbean TCHP and SST's already are much higher than in 2005.

This year the Caribbean is the place to watch. Worst case storm this year with all the conditions currently in place:

A Cape Verde system forming rapidly in the well-above average SST's in the Atlantic, approaching Category 2 status by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The SST's and very deep TCHP in the Caribbean combined with the low shear patterns in place allow the westward tracking Hurricane to undergo intensification, possibly rapid, to Category 4/5 Status. This so far is on pair with Hurricane Dean. The position of the high in the Atlantic would cause the system to go into the GOMEX. You can imagine what might happen next.

In short, imagine Dean at peak strength heading into the GOMEX. That's my greatest fear this season.

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Thats a fine thing aussie,

..Im sure the folks appreciate your thoughts and prayers from down under..


When we get our portlight folks back from Mississippi this afternoon or tonight I'll post some pics from their report today in the portlight blog.
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I'd just like to express my condolences to the families and friends of those who lost their lives in the tornados and to those that have passed on may their soul rest in peace.
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So by the El Nino "not dying" as quickly as expected, what does it mean for the hurricane season?
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AssociatedPress — April 25, 2010 — In the aftermath of a tornado that ripped through Mississippi and killed 10 people, Yazoo City residents reflect on their losses and give thanks to God that their lives were spared. (April 25)



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hey oz whens yer next chase bro
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Issued by The National Weather Service
Melbourne, FL
2:39 pm EDT, Sun., Apr. 25, 2010


... A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY... NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY... NORTHERN SEMINOLE COUNTY... VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

AT 234 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 25 MILES WEST OF LAKE GEORGE... MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE DEVELOP SOUTHWARDS OF THIS LINE INTO NORTHERN LAKE... VOLUSIA AND THE ORLANDO METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH... WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND... SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED... CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.



I would definitely agree... the atmosphere is currently lightly capped and TEMPS are around 87F+ in most areas and DWPTs in the 70's are yielding a CAPE of 2000+J/kg around CFL southward. LR at mid levels are already above 7C and low level LR are AT 6.5C, so just a couple more degrees in our Highs and we should be seeing a considerable destabilization of the atmosphere.

Most of the shear is pretty much were the Tornado Watch resides but stronger on the W coast.

I'm expecting more HVY Rains as higher DWPTs from the Gulf is advected into the area and strong gusts particularly due to some dry air still present in the Mid levels and definitely Hail won't be out of the question as long as the LR remain > 7C specially at mid levels to allow them to grow.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Definately going into a La Nina.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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