Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

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Humor in Comments

Quoting JRRP:
strong wave near Africa

That's 348 hours out, you have better chances of winning the Powerball 15 times in a row than that happening. If you see the same scenario play out with good time line progression and for a couple more runs until it reaches less than 200 hours out, then we look at other models like the CMC, NOGAPS, ECMWF, etc... We need to wait until the GFS gets a good update in July to actually take the long-term forecast seriously.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good Morning

Not much going on the 06z GFS. Nor in the 00z NOGAPS and CMC, just a lot of convection over Central America and the East Pacific.

6z GFS. An African storm and a Caribbean storm in May?

Pretty funny stuff.

Quoting JRRP:

Big, intense MJO should allow for great conditions for development starting April 30th in the Caribbean. Now all we need is a wave to get things going, that is the only way we will have an early May cyclone in the Caribbean.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


6z GFS. An African storm and a Caribbean storm in May?

Pretty funny stuff.

Oh, and do you see the low over Cuba, that thing might be a T.S, lol, I tend not to look past 240 hours on the GFS that way I don't go insane. When the GFS gets a major update in July then I might look past 300 hours for recreational purposes, lol.

.

Quoting MrstormX:
29.) This is perhaps a bit off topic but the weather channel actually did a decent job with their coverage yesterday, im a bit surprised.

I was told they put on a program between 1-2am then Huntsville and after wards was getting hammered, while the threat was still very much going on.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's 348 hours out, you have better chances of winning the Powerball 15 times in a row than that happening. If you see the same scenario play out with good time line progression and for a couple more runs until it reaches less than 200 hours out, then we look at other models like the CMC, NOGAPS, EMCWF, etc... We need to wait until the GFS gets a good update in July to actually take the long-term forecast seriously.

yeah i know :P

Morning everyone....getting ready for the up coming season..seems this could be a very interesting year??

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's 348 hours out, you have better chances of winning the Powerball 15 times in a row than that happening. If you see the same scenario play out with good time line progression and for a couple more runs until it reaches less than 200 hours out, then we look at other models like the CMC, NOGAPS, EMCWF, etc... We need to wait until the GFS gets a good update in July to actually take the long-term forecast seriously.

NOGAPS Saturday, 1 May 2010 16:00:00 GMT+1000 (AUS Eastern Standard Time)


severe weather threat again next Thurs-Fri-Sat???

Quoting AussieStorm:

NOGAPS Saturday, 1 May 2010 16:00:00 GMT 1000 (AUS Eastern Standard Time)


severe weather threat again next Thurs-Fri-Sat???

ECMWF showing it too. Looks like severe weather again, but your in Australia, you don't have to worry about it, lol.

Quoting AussieStorm:

NOGAPS Saturday, 1 May 2010 16:00:00 GMT+1000 (AUS Eastern Standard Time)


severe weather threat again next Thurs-Fri-Sat???

thats next on the hit list
once less than 96 hrs out
then its a issue to look at
the next couple of runs will tell the tale this next round
may be even stronger
than the round just passed

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ERIE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
COLUMBUS OHIO TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF TSTMS WILL CONT TO FORM THROUGH THE AFTN AHEAD
OF AN EJECTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
40-45 KTS AND MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...RACY/HALE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251600Z - 251700Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
FL PENINSULA INTO MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL...GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES
AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED OF AN OFFSHORE TSTM CLUSTER OVER
THE NERN GULF /NOW DEVELOPING INTO DIXIE COUNTY/. AS HEATING
CONTINUES SE OF THIS CLUSTER OVER THE PENINSULA...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT
ONSHORE...GIVEN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /PER JACKSONVILLE VAD PROFILER/. LATEST WRF-BASED OPERATIONAL
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN ADEQUATE HANDLE ON THIS
CLUSTER...EITHER NON-EXISTENT OR DEPICTING WEAKENING TRENDS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKLY FORCED ASCENT THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND
INCREASING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENCE OF TSTMS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 04/25/2010

The GFS is probably confused in the Eastern Atlantic given that the SSTs are well above average in the region and there has been a predominant synoptic scale upper level anticyclonic circulation in the region over the past 30 days.

I, however, would not be surprised to see our first tropical wave come off the coast of Africa with this strong MJO upward pulse.

Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS is probably confused in the Eastern Atlantic given that the SSTs are well above average in the region and there has been a predominant synoptic scale upper level anticyclonic circulation in the region over the past 30 days.

I, however, would not be surprised to see our first tropical wave come off the coast of Africa with this strong MJO upward pulse.

Well I would understand, SST's are off the scale. But shear is at 80 knots and rising, at the moment.

MJO should be reaching African Coast on May 10th.

good morning everyone,
i was wondering if anyone saw the 4.0 eq near alice, tx?

Good afternoon...

Tornado Watch... just issued for my area (CFL).

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

TORNADO WATCH 104 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-007-017-019-035-041-053-069-075-083-095-101-107-109-117-
119-127-260000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0104.100425T1620Z-100426T0000Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS
CLAY FLAGLER GILCHRIST
HERNANDO LAKE LEVY
MARION ORANGE PASCO
PUTNAM SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS
SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$

Quite a bit of ridging in the E CONUS... Drak.

The NOGAPS EPS shows a 500mb ridge building in the GOM as well:

Quoting WxLogic:
Quite a bit of ridging in the E CONUS... Drak.

Yea that should help rapidly warm up the GOM

Has the up coming season forcast changed any?? Been hearing this could be like another 05 season?? Just getting back in the swing of things...nice to see the same names in here..keep up the great work!!

TORNADO WATCH FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA



The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 104 in
effect until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following areas

In Florida this watch includes 4 counties

In east central Florida

Lake Orange Seminole
Volusia

This includes the cities of... Daytona Beach... Leesburg...
Orlando and Sanford.

Moderate convection continues in the far eastern Pacific this morning. The area of strong low-mid level vorticity observed yesterday appears to have mostly dissipated, and the strongest convergence is now confined to just south of Panama. There is a weak 850mb vorticity max associated with low-level turning west of Costa Rica, but this area is now well-removed from the main convection area. Some very slight low to mid-level turning is apparent on visible RGB satellite imagery south of Panama in the vicinity of 6N, 81W.

Westerly surface winds coming across the Pacific associated with a Kelvin Wave will continue to enhance ITCZ activity near Central America for at least the next 10 days, aided by an MJO upward-motion pulse moving over the area. With an upper ridge forecasted to build overhead, this area will continue to be watched for possible formation of a tropical low-pressure area.

Two maps today for y'all today.

First, the gulf is now barely below normal (compared to what it was) and has warmed significantly over the past 15 days.



Second, Nino 3.4 continues to rise to near .7. Not sure why.

CMC Ensembles also onboard with a strong ridge developing over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in about a week's time, and persisting for many days.

Day 7 500mb heights ensemble mean:



Day 12 500mb heights ensemble mean:

Holmes County, Mississippi after tornado.

Quoting Levi32:
CMC Ensembles also onboard with a strong ridge developing over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in about a week's time, and persisting for many days.

Day 7 500mb heights ensemble mean:



Day 12 500mb heights ensemble mean:

Should allow for a rapid increase of SST's in the GOM.

GFS 12z (120 hour) showing a strong compact area of low pressure south of Honduras. (1003 MB)



Other than that not much going on in the Atlantic, just a small area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula/GOM (180 hours):

SST's building a good thing? SST?
Shear something isnt it?

Quoting txjac:
SST's building a good thing? SST?
Shear something isnt it?

SST's are Seas Surface Temps. that's how hot the water is, at the surface. TCHP is tropical cyclone heat potential, which is how far down the hot water goes.

See, a tropical cyclone stirs up the water. If the SST's are high, then the cyclone has access to surface heat, and can grow stronger. But if it stays in one place, it'll stir up the water. The water can get cooler, and the storm loses some of it's fuel.

So TCHP- the hot water DEPTH- is very important. It's not just about surface temp.

Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS is probably confused in the Eastern Atlantic given that the SSTs are well above average in the region and there has been a predominant synoptic scale upper level anticyclonic circulation in the region over the past 30 days.

I, however, would not be surprised to see our first tropical wave come off the coast of Africa with this strong MJO upward pulse.

Highly doupt anything comes about from the wave if indeed something rolls of, those westerlies are still blowing pretty good.

Quoting txjac:
SST's building a good thing? SST?
Shear something isnt it?

SST = Sea Surface Temperature

Not a good thing for us.

Quoting hurricane23:


Highly doupt anything comes about from the wave if indeed something rolls of, those westerlies are still blowing pretty good.

Yup,




Btw, it seems like it will be a stormy day tomorrow.

Yazoo City, Mississippi Tornado Footage clip 3 (Hillcrest Church damage)/ April 24, 2010

Quoting hurricane23:


Highly doupt anything comes about from the wave if indeed something rolls of, those westerlies are still blowing pretty good.

We shall have to keep track of it though if our first ones do start rolling off. If ridging persists over the GOM during the rest of May then we will have to be wary of tropical waves coming underneath into the western Caribbean, which is the only climatologically favored region for mischief this time of year.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 65 MPH
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CROSS CITY FLORIDA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 103...

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STORMS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FROM COASTAL NW
FL WWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS
HAS BECOME UNSTABLE AND MLCAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTN AHEAD OF THE STORMS. REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
50 KTS OF WLY MID-LVL FLOW AND SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SRH AND PRESENCE OF
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST FOR THE RISK OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...RACY/HALES

The GOM/Atlantic Spawned 2 invests by June 1 in 2009.



Season's first tropical depression forms

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:43 AM CDT on May 28, 2009

Nature is jumping the gun a bit this year, with the season's first tropical depression forming four days before the official start to hurricane season. The area of disturbed weather (91L) that we've been watching, about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity and spin to be classified as a tropical depression. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph. Satellite estimates (using a cloud pattern recognition method called the "Dvorak" technique) were saying this was a tropical depression this morning, though, so the NHC elected to upgrade the system.

Dont really like to speculate on long range steering but, i will say this if the ECMWF predictions of a weaker Azores-Bermuda High comes to pass i think we may get a good chunk of systems recurve well east of the united states this season. Problem is everything will not develope out in the central/eastern atl.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well I would understand, SST's are off the scale. But shear is at 80 knots and rising, at the moment.

shear

Quoting hurricane23:
Dont really like to speculate on long range steering but, i will say this if the ECMWF predictions of a weaker Azores-Bermuda High comes to pass i think we may get a good chunk of systems recurve well east of the united states this season. Problem is everything will not develope out in the central/eastern atl.

You mean this?



It's possible....I can't really tell without a 500mb forecast from the European though, and they don't have one.

I have a feeling we might see something like 1998, which had the main congregation of tracks to the west, but also had a separate group that recurved way out in the eastern Atlantic. We're likely going to have much more in the Caribbean than 98 had though.

Quoting hurricane23:
Dont really like to speculate on long range steering but, i will say this if the ECMWF predictions of a weaker Azores-Bermuda High comes to pass i think we may get a good chunk of systems recurve well east of the united states this season. Problem is everything will not develope out in the central/eastern atl.

You can't go by the pressure forecast alone. That's not going to tell you much about steering. The CFS and Glosea are indicating a negative NAO which would tend to put the congregation of tracks further westward and coupled with the fact that we are in a neutral year which favors landfalling storms.

Quoting Levi32:


You mean this?



It's possible....I can't really tell without a 500mb forecast from the European though, and they don't have one.

I have a feeling we might see something like 1998, which had the main congregation of tracks to the west, but also had a separate group that recurved way out in the eastern Atlantic. We're likely going to have much more in the Caribbean than 98 had though.

The Bermuda high is building weaker but further to the east, not really allowing for curvature except for a few here and there. I do have a feeling Florida will get blasted with a very strong hurricane in the middle of the season due to high SST's, el nino dying, and the location of the Bermuda high. An Andrew scenario seems very plausible this year, unfortunately. And on top of that there still will be more hurricanes impacting the SE US.