Quiet tornado season wakes up; severe thunderstorm in India leaves 1 million homeless

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on April 23, 2010

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After a record quiet start to the 2010 severe weather season, the atmosphere finally unleashed one of its classic violent spring weather days yesterday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tallied 32 tornado reports in Colorado, Kansas, and Texas. Fortunately, most of the storms occurred over uninhabited areas, and no injuries or major damage were reported. Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver, has the details on the action in his blog today. The action was focused in a region the Storm Prediction Center had put in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather in yesterday's outlook. This was the first "Moderate Risk" region declared so far this year, which is a record for the latest day in the year this has occurred. According to Rich Thompson, a forecaster at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the previous record latest date for a "Moderate Risk" severe weather day was March 21, 2005. So, we beat the previous record by an entire month, which is a remarkable feat. There has been only one tornado death so far this year, the lowest death toll this far into the season on record. Typically, about half of the 80 or so tornado deaths we average per year have occurred by this point in the season. Yesterday's preliminary tornado count of 32 came close matching the preliminary U.S. tornado count for the entire month of March--36. March was the fourth-quietest March for tornado activity since record keeping began in 1950. The three-year average for March tornadoes is 138. One reason for the quiet tornado season has been the "upside down" winter and early spring we've experienced over North America over the past 3 1/2 months. Temperatures in Canada have been the warmest on record during this period, but have been unusually cold over the southern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico. Since the instability that severe thunderstorms need to occur comes from warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico encountering cold, dry air from Canada, this year's unusual "upside down" configuration has led to a much more stable than usual atmosphere over tornado alley in the U.S.


Figure 1. Doppler radar storm-relative velocity of the mile-wide tornado that affected western Kansas at 4:40 MDT April 22, 2010. No damage or injuries were reported from the tornado. A second tornado's Doppler radar signature is also visible at the bottom of the image.

Another severe weather outbreak expected today and Saturday
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined another "Moderate Risk" region of concern for severe weather today, this time centered over Arkansas, Mississippi, and northern Louisiana (Figure 2.) Tomorrow, the action moves eastwards and will be centered over Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. This 3-day severe weather event will probably end up being one of the most significant of the year. Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will blog about today's action after it is over. As usual, you can follow today's severe weather outbreak with our interactive tornado page and our severe weather page..


Figure 2. Severe weather risk areas for Friday April 23, 2010.

Tornado and associated severe weather leave 1 million homeless in India
The U.S. has the world's most violent and numerous tornadoes, but second place goes to Bangladesh and eastern India. There, warm moist air from the Bay of Bengal often encounters cold, dry air from the Himalayas, setting up the instability needed to support severe thunderstorms. On Tuesday, April 13, and very unstable airmass (CAPE values > 3000) with strong westerly wind shear set up over eastern India, providing the classic set-up for supercell thunderstorms. Radar loops from the Kolkatta radar that day show a severe thunderstorm formed over extreme northeast India, near the Bangladesh border, and moved southeast into Bangladesh. The thunderstorm appeared to form a "bow echo", a configuration that often generates strong winds in excess of hurricane force near the bowed-out portion of the radar echo. Winds of 75 mph affected a large area of densely populated land, killing 137, severely damaging or destroying 200,000 homes, and leaving 1 million homeless. A weak tornado may have accompanied the storm. This may be the greatest number of people ever left homeless by a severe thunderstorm in world history.


Figure 3. Radar image from the Kolkatta Regional Meteorological Centre of the Indian Meteorological Department, showing the severe thunderstorm that killed 137 people and left 1 million homeless. Thanks go to Steve Nesbitt of UIUC for saving this image.

Jeff Masters

Into the Abyss (adkinsadam1)
A little more than April showers... These storms delivered tornadoes and 6 inches of hail! SPC can't seem to figure out that the front range loves these kinds of weather setups.
Into the Abyss
Funnel at Jericho Texas (live4storms)
Did not get to the ground.
Funnel at Jericho Texas
Second Groom, TX Tornado (zach34298)
This is about the best that the tornado ever looked. It was on the ground for a few minutes, before it lifted, and then briefly touched down again.
Second Groom, TX Tornado

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1394. Eagle101
4:05 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Reference to post 1387...

Wow...180 out...I have seen the vectors for one or two storms out by as much as 90...but never all of them 180 out...pretty odd for sure.

v/r

Jon
Member Since: January 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
1393. wunderkidcayman
2:04 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Good Morning. One of the models has a system moving over The Caymans in early may. Might be interesting. NCEP/GFS model.


OH GREAT I AM ALREADY FEELING THAT CAYMAN IS GOING TO HAVE TROBLE LATER ANS ALSO IF YOU LOOK ONN THAT SAME MODEL IT ALSO BRINGS UP OUR FIRST CV STORM
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
1392. hydrus
1:57 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning everyone
Good Morning. One of the models has a system moving over The Caymans in early may. Might be interesting. NCEP/GFS model.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
1391. wunderkidcayman
1:51 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Good morning everyone
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
1390. hydrus
1:48 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting hydrus: AUSSIE
I think they should change the name of that station to,, We play movies and talk about the weather when we feel like it channel. They had a flick called The Avengers on, what the heck are the people in charge there thinking? And what is this program "tell Cantore were to go crap? They should NOT be allowed to say they are the weather channel anymore. Maybe the indirectly associated with the weather station.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
1389. hydrus
1:47 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting indianrivguy:
Whats wrong with this picture??

Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

lol!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
1387. indianrivguy
1:31 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Whats wrong with this picture??

Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
1386. txjac
1:19 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
P451, could you please tell me from what time the image that you posted is from? Post number 1380. Thanks in advance
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2357
1385. msgambler
1:11 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Good morning everyone. Hope all are well this morning. Evening Aussie.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1384. hydrus
1:06 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's disgusting, they should be doing there jobs, not putting on programs.
I think they should change the name of that station to,, We play movies and talk about the weather when we feel like it channel. They had a flick called The Avengers on, what the heck are the people in charge there thinking? And what is this program "tell Cantore were to go crap? They should NOT be allowed to say they are the weather channel anymore. Maybe the indirectly associated with the weather station.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
1383. Eagle101
12:51 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Good Morning Everyone,

So sad to follow events from yesterday/lastnight and into the early morning hours this morning. Of course, prayers and thoughts go out to the victims of the storms.

We had some strong storms come through Panama City about 3:00am or so this morning...almost continuous cloud to ground lightning.

We picked up 2.33 inches of rainfall...quite a bit for such a short time period.

Everyone take care,

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Member Since: January 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
1381. aquak9
12:41 PM GMT on April 25, 2010
Morning, WU-Bloggers.

I hope our severe season is OVER now. That, was enough.

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25516
1379. CybrTeddy
10:40 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Hey Cybr! How's it going?


Hey, I wondered where you went! I agree with your forecast too, but I'm more on the bar with 16/7/4. Guess we'll have to see wont we?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
1378. HurricaneKyle
10:36 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Hey Cybr! How's it going?
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
1377. CybrTeddy
10:27 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
1376. CybrTeddy
9:54 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Morning everyone! Up early.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
1374. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:33 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER SEAN (13U)
3:00 PM WST April 25 2010
======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Sean (1000 hPa) located at 18.1S 110.5E or 570 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south-southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.5S 108.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 18.5S 105.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 18.5S 098.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 17.0S 094.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
Ex Tropical Cyclone Sean has weakened below cyclone intensity under strong NW shear. Latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis at 06 UTC indicates NW shear between 25 and 30 knots. The low level circulation centre is fully exposed on visible imagery with minimal convection nearby.

Dvorak: Shear pattern gives DT of 1.0 to 1.5. MET is 2.0 based on W+ trend and PAT is 2.0. FT is now 2.0 with CI of 2.5.

The low level circulation centre is expected to track generally westwards under the influence of low level easterly winds.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
1373. alexhurricane1991
6:45 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Man i just graduated august of last year just do your work dont get in any trouble and you will be fine junior and senior years are the easiest you get by this year congrats graduate! LOL!
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1372. HurricaneKyle
6:42 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Are you a senior in high school?


Sophomore, going on Junior.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
1371. alexhurricane1991
6:38 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Are you a senior in high school?
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1370. alexhurricane1991
6:37 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Well it looks like this outbreak is winding down now thank goodness it has been a busy and sad day for the people of mississippi and alabama as many communities have been hit and unfortunately deaths have occured so far i heard 10 in mississippi and we dont know in alabama yet but hopefully these guys can get a break from severe weather and clean up but there is another round of severe weather coming into the plains on thursday so hopes it goes north.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1369. HurricaneKyle
6:32 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Wow hey hurricanekyle! nice to meet you


Nice to meet you too!
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
1368. AllyBama
6:21 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
uh-oh..I sure hope that the storm dissipates soon!..with it being so late, many people will be caught off guard - especially the tourists. I am not sure if there are emergency sirens around town but not everyone would be in range to hear them.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20614
1367. alexhurricane1991
6:20 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Wow hey hurricanekyle! nice to meet you
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1366. HurricaneKyle
6:18 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Hello all! I haven't been on for a while, since the '09 season. High School going great still!

All signs atm indicate this season will be one for the books. TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) In the Caribbean is higher than that of the legendary 2005 season was at this time. SST's (Sea surface temperatures) are way higher than this time last year, and higher than 2005 again even. El Nino is dying, and the SOI is continuing to skyrocket, now up to 13.8 ish last I checked. NAO continues to be negative, shear continues to be well below climatological average. Colorado and Dr. Gray say that this season will feature atleast 15 named. TSR says 16, with a 77% chance of an above average season.

When looking at conditions one tends to look for something called analog seasons, or seasons that have similar conditions that are present. The Top 3 is 1969, 1998, and 2005. Each of those seasons were extraordinarily destructive, Camille in 1969 hit as a Category 5 in the US, Mitch in 1998 was the 2nd most deadly Hurricane in the Atlantic, also a Category 5 landfall. And of course, 2005 with Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma. I personally believe that this season will feature

- 17 named Storms.
- 8 Hurricanes.
- 5 Major Hurricanes.

I also want to extend my condolences to any victims of the Yazoo Tornado today, judging by some of the damage reports it was at least an EF-3 tornado. My thoughts and prayers are out there tonight! The tornado outbreak looks to be continuing, my neck of the woods here in FL looks to get some rain out of it tomorrow!
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
1365. alexhurricane1991
6:17 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Yeah your right but now there is a tornadic storm heading towards sevierville,pigeon forge,and gatlinburg tennesse area
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1364. AllyBama
6:14 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
I sure wouldn't want to live in that area!..well, hopefully these stories are not true about the prom, etc., and we probably won't know anything until daylight..

Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20614
1363. alexhurricane1991
6:10 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
WOW!
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1362. AllyBama
6:08 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
I did find this info..

that the Geraldine-area historical tornado activity is above the AL state average and is 234% greater than the overall U.S. average..
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20614
1361. alexhurricane1991
6:04 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Man hopefully no one was at the school
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1360. AllyBama
6:03 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
I am not sure if the prom was being held at the school or not; however, in many of the rural areas, there is no where else to go unless there is a community center in town or a hotel with banquet facilities..
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20614
1359. alexhurricane1991
5:57 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
I heard reports that the high school was destroyed but hopefully the prom wasnt there did it say where it was being held?
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1358. AllyBama
5:54 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Hi Alex, I am pretty good - just sleepy but now worried about the situation in Geraldine, AL..I read that the tornado hit near the school where the prom was being held..I am still searching for updated info..
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20614
1357. alexhurricane1991
5:50 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Hey allybama how are you doing!
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1356. AllyBama
5:47 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
just read that it was prom night in Geraldine..

Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20614
1355. alexhurricane1991
5:38 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Yep hopefully it wasnt severe but the velocity scans showed amazing rotation
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1354. AussieStorm
5:36 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:

Collinsville has unconfirmed reports of damage.

massive lightening storm at Gadsden.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1353. AussieStorm
5:33 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Not good if that thing didnt produce a large tornado in collinsville then that is a miracle

Collinsville has unconfirmed reports of damage.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1352. alexhurricane1991
5:32 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Somber news out of geraldine as the ema has requested all available fire departmaents and police to assist in rescue efforts in the area
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1351. alexhurricane1991
5:24 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Not good if that thing didnt produce a large tornado in collinsville then that is a miracle
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1350. AussieStorm
5:23 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
Alright guys I'm going to bed as I have got to get some sleep. You guys keep up the good work! I swear were better at this then METS. TWC just had Storm Stories on from 12 to 1am with tornadoes all over AL. That is terrible, so much for forecasting and alerting people of danger coming there way.

That's disgusting, they should be doing there jobs, not putting on programs.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1349. AussieStorm
5:21 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Collinsville take cover immedeatly! possible tornado heading there way

It's pasted collinsville
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1347. alexhurricane1991
5:12 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Collinsville take cover immedeatly! possible tornado heading there way
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1346. Bordonaro
5:11 AM GMT on April 25, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
Storms intensifying NW of Tallahassee also looks as if a hook echo is developing with that storm.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.