The worst is over for the ash clouds from Iceland's volcano

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:56 PM GMT on April 21, 2010

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The worst is now over for European air traffic disruptions from the ongoing eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano. The eruptions are currently only throwing ash up to 16,000 feet (4900 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since Sunday. The lower amounts of ash are due, in part, to the fact that the volcano has melted most of the ice and snow covering the crater. This ice had caused the hot magma erupting through it to fragment into fine ash capable of reaching much higher heights of 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') in the early stages of the eruption. Ash is also reduced because the volcano has entered a phase where it is producing more magma. Although it is possible that the volcano could enter a more explosive eruption phase that would throw ash high into the air once again, the winds are expected to shift over Iceland late this week. The northwest winds that have been "stuck" in place over Iceland over the past week due to a persistent trough of low pressure over northern Europe, will gradually shift to westerly by Friday and southwesterly by Saturday. This means that new eruptive material will blow over the northern British Islands and northern Scandanavia late this week, avoiding the main portion of Europe. Ash should be confined to northern Scandanavia and Greenland through most of next week, since the southwesterly winds are expected to continue through most of next week.


Figure 1. Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano began to ease out of the ash-producing phase of its eruption and started to emit magma on April 19, 2010, said the Icelandic Met Office. The cloud of ash coming from the volcano was lower than it had been in previous days, rising just 4 to 6 kilometers (2 to 3 miles) into the atmosphere. In this photo-like image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, the ash extends south in a broad brown plume. Smaller plumes extend from the coast east of the primary plume. These are likely re-suspended ash, fine volcanic ash that had settled on the land, but is now being picked up by the wind. The plume blows south and then curves east over the ocean, blending with the outer bands of a low-pressure system. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post Thursday (Earth Day!)
Jeff Masters

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384. gordydunnot
4:54 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Exactly my feelings Presslord. When I logged on several years ago. I loved weather but didn't really no much, you hang around here long enough you realize how much you don't know, but at least you know where to go and who to listen too. Everyone good luck this season it looks like we are going to need some. Futures market in oil looking very tempting, sad to say.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
383. hurricane23
1:33 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Why El Nino 1-2 has you concerned?


In short terms...El Niño-like characteristics may linger for a while.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
382. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:33 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
new blog
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
381. IKE
1:32 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
380. IKE
1:29 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just think t2 months ago you were in the 20 and 30's


And February 12th it snowed here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
379. Tropicsweatherpr
1:28 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:
Nino region 1 2 has me a bit concerned. Those below average pressures from the ECMWF are insane. Updated heat content.



Why El Nino 1-2 has you concerned?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14263
378. StormChaser81
1:27 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:
Nino region 1 2 has me a bit worried. Those below average pressures from the ECMWF are insane. Updated heat content.



It's also scary because the waters in that area are very deep.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
377. Stormchaser2007
1:24 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting presslord:
ya know....reading back over the posts here...it's just stunning what a wealth of information is available here...


Its a great learning environment.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:23 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting IKE:
Not a lot of trolls on here this team of year. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end...just wait til the heart of the season.

I noticed Accuweather is forecasting around 90 for me by May 1st.
just think t2 months ago you were in the 20 and 30's
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
375. Chicklit
1:23 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting presslord:
ya know....reading back over the posts here...it's just stunning what a wealth of information is available here...

Yeah...reminds me of the conversations my father (an engineer for AT&T) used to have with me. I'd pretend to understand and listen but really had only a vague idea of what he was talking about! I think it helped him to frame his thoughts and figure things out though. Prolly kinda like talking to your pet.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
374. Stormchaser2007
1:23 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Whoa! Not liking this.

2005:


2010:
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
373. IKE
1:20 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Not a lot of trolls on here this team of year. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end...just wait til the heart of the season.

I noticed Accuweather is forecasting around 90 for me by May 1st.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
372. hurricane23
1:19 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Nino region 1 2 has me a bit concerned. Those below average pressures from the ECMWF are insane. Updated heat content.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
371. presslord
1:17 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
ya know....reading back over the posts here...it's just stunning what a wealth of information is available here...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
370. RitaEvac
1:15 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
369. Stormchaser2007
1:14 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Not sure if this is updated, but here's the Nino 3.4 plume. La Nina by August?

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
368. Drakoen
1:08 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
The ECMWF updated is lower with the MSLP

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30491
367. presslord
1:04 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Running out of water...
Link
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
366. Chicklit
12:56 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Good morning. Gorgeous day here in ECFL except for the chain saw going out front because the power lines were eaten away by the trees!
I am looking forward to reading Dr. Masters' Earth Day blog.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
365. ackee
12:55 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ECMWF updated its forecast maps and it looks 2x more scary than the last one. Heres a link to them all. The whole basin is below average in terms of MSLP. Alos the SST and rain forecasts look pretty interesting as well.

MSLP for JJA.


MSLP for JAS
look on seasonal rain and sea pressure for carrbbean really looks bad any thoughts
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1373
364. FLWeatherFreak91
12:44 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:




Wow! Stellar!
"stellar." Nice word choice for this lol.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3620
363. IKE
12:30 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
This year has the potential to be bad in the Atlantic. That's all I'll say about it. I'll leave it at that.

The clock is ticking....

Down to....

952 hours...
30 minutes...and it starts....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
362. Stormchaser2007
12:17 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
Latest CFS SST forecast for September is downright scary. It has us as warm as the Indian ocean!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
361. Stormchaser2007
12:12 PM GMT on April 22, 2010
ECMWF updated its forecast maps and it looks 2x more scary than the last one. Heres a link to them all. The whole basin is below average in terms of MSLP. Alos the SST and rain forecasts look pretty interesting as well.

MSLP for JJA.


MSLP for JAS
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
360. CycloneOz
11:43 AM GMT on April 22, 2010


Quoting P451:
Nasa Probe's incredible new pics of the sun.



Wow! Stellar!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3684
358. Tropicsweatherpr
11:39 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Good morning and Happy Earth Day. There is new invest 90W in the WPAC basin.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14263
357. SLU
11:30 AM GMT on April 22, 2010


Happy Earth Day
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5163
356. CycloneOz
10:58 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting Skyepony:
Top scientists call for research on climate link to volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis
April 19, 2010

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the solid Earth, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. This response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a wide range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and sub-aerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide %u2019splash%u2019 waves glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilisation. Looking ahead, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a world warmed by anthropogenic climate change, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere.


If we could just eradicate mankind, then the Earth would be able to orbit in peace. Darn...

Are these scientists or blithering idiots?

As predicted, it did not take but a handful of months for people to say that ANTHROPOGENIC (fancy!) climate change is the root cause for EVERYTHING that happens on the Earth.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3684
355. CybrTeddy
9:51 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Morning all, 39 days to Hurricane season.
Heading out the door, going to be a warm one today in FL in my neck of the woods!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24022
353. peejodo
8:24 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
KOG 349, Re: SST's 2005 vs 2010, great similarity. Southern GOM/BOC appears slightly cooler this year than 2005. So why do I have a bad feeling about the BOC for early this season?
Member Since: February 13, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
352. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:27 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 13U
3:00 PM WST April 22 2010
======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1004 hPa) located at 12.4S 115.7E or 1110 km east of Christmas Island and 940 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south-southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 115.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.7S 113.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.8S 111.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 16.5S 109.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Addition Information
=====================
Convection has persisted near the low level circulation centre although the areal extent and curved band/peripheral convective features remain relatively weak. The most recent microwave imagery does suggest some improvement in the convective band. Dvorak intensity: DT=2.0 based on 0.3 curved band; D- 24h trend gives MET=2.0, PAT=2.0, and hence FT/CI=2.0.

The low remains in an area of low vertical wind shear, very high ocean heat content [SST>30C] and upper-level poleward outflow associated with a large amplitude strong mid-latitude trough to the southwest; all features conducive for further development. These environmental conditions are expected to continue in the next 36 hours so development is forecast although the rate remains somewhat uncertain and models do not favour rapid intensification. It is possible that the circulation may be smaller than is normal, supported by the current extent of convection. This may result in greater fluctuations in intensity than is typical.

During Saturday the shear should increase as the system moves southwestwards towards the near stationary upper trough. By Sunday the system will be under strong northwesterly shear and will be over lower SSTs and should be steadily weakening. By Monday the system should be weak and beginning to be steered by lower level winds out towards the west as deep convection is sheared away.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45306
351. Bordonaro
6:08 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
SPC 0600Z update. Th 4-22 & Fr 4-23-/10 will be a BUSY days. This is the "Hail Threat" for both days:


Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
350. xcool
4:56 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
i'm ready for the season now ......





GFS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
349. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:48 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
here is a compare map april 20 2005 and 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
348. Skyepony (Mod)
4:36 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Top scientists call for research on climate link to volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis
April 19, 2010

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the solid Earth, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. This response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a wide range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and sub-aerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide ’splash’ waves glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilisation. Looking ahead, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a world warmed by anthropogenic climate change, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37840
347. xcool
4:34 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
39 Days until Hurricane Season yayyyyy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
346. 1900hurricane
4:31 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting xcool:
look at 2010 vs 2005 biggg different.

I actually thought the looked remarkably similar...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
345. Skyepony (Mod)
4:28 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
These SDO images & movies are great.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37840
344. xcool
4:25 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
look at 2010 vs 2005 biggg different.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
343. Tazmanian
3:51 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no help4u


lol lol lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115107
342. Stormchaser2007
3:44 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting FloridaTigers:


It'd be interesting to see how long it takes for the SST's to reach that 4/25/05 point.


Probably early May if things continue to warm at this rate.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
341. FloridaTigers
3:38 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


2005 dropped significantly in TCHP after April 15th. Then between April 20-25 there is an exponential increase in SST's and TCHP. This increase is what made the season very interesting.

We'll need quite a burst of warm temps to match that magnitude of TCHP and SST's.
-------------------------------------------
Amazing increase.
April, 20 2005


April, 25 2005


It'd be interesting to see how long it takes for the SST's to reach that 4/25/05 point.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
340. SouthALWX
3:37 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
What's up with these maps.....depth of 26C isotherm? I don't think SSTs are 26C all the way up to 40N right now.


maybe it's Fahrenheit ;)
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
339. Levi32
3:35 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
What's up with these maps.....depth of 26C isotherm? I don't think SSTs are 26C all the way up to 40N right now.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
338. SouthALWX
3:29 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
@ Levi ... without the date posted looking at either map I probably couldn't have told you which was which. thats not good.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
337. Stormchaser2007
3:28 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


2005:



2010:



2005 dropped significantly in TCHP after April 15th. Then between April 20-25 there is an exponential increase in SST's and TCHP. This increase is what made the season very interesting.

We'll need quite a burst of warm temps to match that magnitude of TCHP and SST's.
-------------------------------------------
Amazing increase.
April, 20 2005


April, 25 2005
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
336. Levi32
3:26 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting SevereHurricane:
I'm going to call AOML tomorrow to find out whats the deal with the water temperature maps not updating.


That would be nice to know.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
335. SevereHurricane
3:25 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
I'm going to call AOML tomorrow to find out whats the deal with the water temperature maps not updating.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
334. SevereHurricane
3:23 AM GMT on April 22, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


2005:



2010:



Too bad AOML isn't updating...
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.