The worst is over for the ash clouds from Iceland's volcano

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:56 PM GMT on April 21, 2010

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The worst is now over for European air traffic disruptions from the ongoing eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano. The eruptions are currently only throwing ash up to 16,000 feet (4900 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since Sunday. The lower amounts of ash are due, in part, to the fact that the volcano has melted most of the ice and snow covering the crater. This ice had caused the hot magma erupting through it to fragment into fine ash capable of reaching much higher heights of 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') in the early stages of the eruption. Ash is also reduced because the volcano has entered a phase where it is producing more magma. Although it is possible that the volcano could enter a more explosive eruption phase that would throw ash high into the air once again, the winds are expected to shift over Iceland late this week. The northwest winds that have been "stuck" in place over Iceland over the past week due to a persistent trough of low pressure over northern Europe, will gradually shift to westerly by Friday and southwesterly by Saturday. This means that new eruptive material will blow over the northern British Islands and northern Scandanavia late this week, avoiding the main portion of Europe. Ash should be confined to northern Scandanavia and Greenland through most of next week, since the southwesterly winds are expected to continue through most of next week.


Figure 1. Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano began to ease out of the ash-producing phase of its eruption and started to emit magma on April 19, 2010, said the Icelandic Met Office. The cloud of ash coming from the volcano was lower than it had been in previous days, rising just 4 to 6 kilometers (2 to 3 miles) into the atmosphere. In this photo-like image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, the ash extends south in a broad brown plume. Smaller plumes extend from the coast east of the primary plume. These are likely re-suspended ash, fine volcanic ash that had settled on the land, but is now being picked up by the wind. The plume blows south and then curves east over the ocean, blending with the outer bands of a low-pressure system. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post Thursday (Earth Day!)
Jeff Masters

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Regarding #71:
Levi32 (or anyone else who wants to take a stab at it...)

Shouldn't that more southerly moisture impact the SAL? Could that implicate the potential for more dust this season?

Any thoughts would be most appreciated... TIA
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Hi everyone,

More rain in SE Florida.. wettest dry season I can remember... we got almost 3" over weekend and almost another 2 last night... We normally do not get 5" of rain in 3 months during Jan - April, and we are getting that much almost every weekend lately.
Adrian, wonder why Dade county is missing these rains and not getting as much as Broward?


Hopefully we will dry out alittle before the next bunch of rain comes.

Enjoy your Wednesday!

Gams
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Thanks.. it may be the disparity in how "current" my view is too.. the eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli camera has not refreshed since I posed the question.. but I know if I refresh, it won't reload, too many computers awake and watching now. In the eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk view, the sun is now behind the plume putting into a shadow..

I must say again how pleased I am the roughnecks were found okay.

I have refreshed the web-cam pictures several times, just recently a matter of fact, and the reload ok for me.

However, there appears to be a low cloud deck moving in blocking most of the current eruption. Today's activity appears to be greatly increased from what little I saw yesterday.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting PcolaDan:


From everything I understand, these are the same vents. They are just different cam angles which can be a little confusing.


Thanks.. it may be the disparity in how "current" my view is too.. the eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli camera has not refreshed since I posed the question.. but I know if I refresh, it won't reload, too many computers awake and watching now. In the eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk view, the sun is now behind the plume putting into a shadow..

I must say again how pleased I am the roughnecks were found okay.
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That would be the Russian Soyuz Spacecraft that takes crews up and Down 3 at a Time,..two are now at the ISS.

And after the Shuttles retire this year,with 3 flights remaining The Soyuz will be the only access Up and down from ISS.

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Quoting indianrivguy:
A question.. I am watching two live feeds from "Hey ya forgot ya yogurt" to borrow a term from St. Simon, and U'm having trouble comparing the two against one another.

eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli which appears to be looking towards the north

and

eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk which appears to be looking towards the south, southwest?

Now the fra-thorolfsfelli view also has the actual vent depressed somewhere behind a ridge.. the plume is already spread by the time it comes into view.

The fra-valahnjuk view has us much closer to the vent and the plume is still narrow..(welll, as I wrote, it got bigger and spread out.. it still does not look the same as the other view tho.)

the question.. are they of the same vent?



From everything I understand, these are the same vents. They are just different cam angles which can be a little confusing.

add: I have gotten a lot of good information from here the last few days. http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/
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When I worked for Chevron in 94-95 on Hercules-21 outta Venice,LA..we all drilled twice a week for the Exit Plan.



The Escape Pod/Capsule is a WUnderful thing when its time to get...in a hurry.

And Im sure these men are thankful for all the Required training for such a event.

Also the weather was clear and calm at the time of the Explosion and fire.

Blogger JFlorida has a nice entry on the injured and the accident



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Quoting Patrap:
11 missing oil rig crew members found safe after explosion, parish president says
By Ramon Antonio Vargas, The Times-Picayune
April 21, 2010, 10:33AM



Rescuers have found the 11 people who went missing shortly after the oil drilling rig they were aboard exploded and caught fire in the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday, according to Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser.

Nungesser said he received reports that the workers are alive and safe.

The Coast Guard was trying to verify this information at 10:48 a.m.CDT


That would be very good news indeed... I had figured they were blown overboard with the explosion.
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A question.. I am watching two live feeds from "Hey ya forgot ya yogurt" to borrow a term from St. Simon, and U'm having trouble comparing the two against one another.

eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli which appears to be looking towards the north

and

eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk which appears to be looking towards the south, southwest?

Now the fra-thorolfsfelli view also has the actual vent depressed somewhere behind a ridge.. the plume is already spread by the time it comes into view.

The fra-valahnjuk view has us much closer to the vent and the plume is still narrow..(welll, as I wrote, it got bigger and spread out.. it still does not look the same as the other view tho.)

the question.. are they of the same vent?

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11 missing oil rig crew members found safe after explosion, parish president says
By Ramon Antonio Vargas, The Times-Picayune
April 21, 2010, 10:33AM



Rescuers have found the 11 people who went missing shortly after the oil drilling rig they were aboard exploded and caught fire in the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday, according to Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser.

Nungesser said he received reports that the workers are alive and safe.

The Coast Guard was trying to verify this information at 10:48 a.m.CDT
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Quoting Jeff9641:
> Top 10 Tornado prone cities
> Ranked by tornadoes per 1,000 miles

> 1. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
> 2. Tulsa, Oklahoma
> 3. Dallas - Ft. Worth, Texas
> 4. Wichita, Kansas
> 5. Springfield, Missouri
> 6. Kansas City, Kansas / Missouri
> 7. Ft. Smith, Arkansas
> 8. Little Rock, Arkansas
> 9. Jackson, Mississippi
> 10. Birmingham, Alabama


My kids live --- guess where!!!
Tulsa and Oklahoma City.
I told them I have doubts about their ability to pick a decent place to live. LOL
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From CPC:

Latest Text Summary


During the period from April 1-10,2010, the mean western portion of the ITF was approximated at 10.3N and experienced a moderate lag compared to the mean climatological ITF position at 11.5N for early April. The western portion of the ITF is also more southerly than the same dekad of 2009 when the ITF was around 11.0N. The eastern portion of the ITF also experienced a slight lag during the last dekad, with an anomalous latitudinal displacement of -0.5 degrees. Figure 1 shows the current position compared to normal, and the current equatorward shift of the ITF is likely due to rains and moisture being confined in the lower Gulf of Guinea region, and parts of the southern Central African Republic. It is clear that both the eastern and westen positions of the ITF are more southerly than normal, as depicted by Figures 2 and 3.




Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
You can see the clouds building in front of that aforementioned impulse coming down the peninsula. It's going to be a timing thing as dry air is building in behind.

GOM VISIBLE
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Quoting Jeff9641:
> Top 10 Tornado prone cities
> Ranked by tornadoes per 1,000 miles

> 1. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
> 2. Tulsa, Oklahoma
> 3. Dallas - Ft. Worth, Texas
> 4. Wichita, Kansas
> 5. Springfield, Missouri
> 6. Kansas City, Kansas / Missouri
> 7. Ft. Smith, Arkansas
> 8. Little Rock, Arkansas
> 9. Jackson, Mississippi
> 10. Birmingham, Alabama


Thanks for that good news. Just kidding, the DFW, TX area has been very quiet so far this spring, but I am sure that will not last!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting AussieStorm:

the east has had plenty of rain but the west has had very little. That's the difference in this country between El Nino and La Nina.

El Nino is fading quickly, so hopefully, over the next few months your rainfall will increase to normal/above normal.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:
#58 Aussie, that's good news, hopefully the El Nino's decline continues, and your Australian drought will end completely!

Eastern Australia has had plenty of rain but the western side has had very little. That's the difference in this country between El Nino and La Nina.
Goodnight all, Stay safe :-)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting StormChaser81:
Waters are warming pretty quickly, seeing lot's of mid 70's now and the Gulf Stream is in the high 70's.




Should get a real kick in the pants with high pressure settling in for the next week. Temps will be approaching 90 around the peninsula.
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#58 Aussie, that's good news, hopefully the El Nino's decline continues, and your Australian drought will end completely!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What was the strongest earthquake associated with the eruption of the "Hey ya forgot ya yogurt" volcano?

About 3.0 Mw, most quakes were in the 1-2 Mw range.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
NSW drought figures hit nine-year low

The area of New South Wales in drought has dropped dramatically.

Recent heavy rains have seen the figure fall to 7.3 per cent of the state in March.

In February, 39.8 per cent of New South Wales was in drought - in January the figure was 81 per cent.

Areas that moved out of drought last month include Wagga Wagga in the state's south, Lake Cargelligo in the central west and Menindee in the far west.

Bathurst, Broken Hill and Wilcannia are among the areas which moved from marginal to satisfactory.

The only decline from satisfactory to marginal was a part of New England near Uralla, in the state's north west.

The Primary Industries Minister Steve Whan says they are the best drought figures for nine years.

"We know that there is still tough times for many people but it is great to see this sort of news," he said.

"I know from talking to people and farmers that there is a lot of smiles out there at the moment.

"We are seeing a lot more confidence about planting crops and of course we are getting cattle with some decent feed and that is terrific news for people."

But Mr Whan is worried that more than half of the state is considered marginal.

"If conditions don't continue with some rainfall they could actually slip back into drought so that is something we will keep a close eye on," he said.

He is also concerned that the state's large water storage levels remain low - at just 28.8 per cent of capacity.

© ABC 2010
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Lots of the Bay of Campechece and the Loop current Head in the GOM are 80F already,a quick Buoy scan will show that easily.





The GOM only supplies moisture for the Continental severe storm Outbreaks and the main forcings are the Continental drivers,which havent really begun in Ernest.
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Storm Chaser, although parts of the Gulf may be a few degrees above normal now, by mid/late May 2010, the GOM will be near or even slightly above normal.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Waters are warming pretty quickly, seeing lot's of mid 70's now and the Gulf Stream is in the high 70's.

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52. DVG
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Your correct, almost there. The rains took off out by the lake and drifted Eastward. I live in Wellington and the view westward as I was driving out from West Palm was that of your traditional sea breeze storms although, they lacked the lightning as Hur23 pointed out. Just as usual, later that evening we had showers as they moved eastward.


Don't know about S Fl, just was looking at the radar from nws jax. There was a very light and very thin line up the middle of the peninsula, a couple counties west of Duval. I don't think it extended far south, but I wasn't really paying attention to it.

I was actually surprised it was there. Didn't seem warm enough for that.

I have noticed the clouds are getting a bit more puffy looking.

Anyway, I am loving the mild days and cool nights for as long as they last.

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todays tornado outlook
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Report from NWS Amarillo, TX:

April 20 Storm
Tornadic Storm
April 20, 2010

On the evening of April 20, 2010 a storm developed near Boys Ranch, TX and moved southeast to just west of Bushland. When the storm was west of Bushland, there were multiple reports of a tornado. As the tornado moved further south into Randall County, there were more reports of a tornado.

Further information on any possible tornados will be possible after storm damage teams complete their surveys April 21, 2010. Updated information will be available on the web page at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/

Preliminary Storm Reports

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0538 PM HAIL BOYS RANCH 35.51N 102.25W

04/20/2010 E0.75 INCH OLDHAM TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0704 PM TORNADO 5 W BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.15W

04/20/2010 OLDHAM TX AMATEUR RADIO



LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

PRELIMINARY END TIME IS ESTIMATED.

0710 PM HAIL 1 N BUSHLAND 35.20N 102.06W

04/20/2010 M1.75 INCH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER



SPOTTER ALSO CONFIRMED THE TORNADO REPORTED NEAR

BUSHLAND

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG UMBARGER 34.95N 102.11W

04/20/2010 RANDALL TX EMERGENCY MNGR



HOME WINDOWS BLOWN OUT IN UMBARGER



0747 PM TORNADO 3 NE UMBARGER 34.99N 102.07W

04/20/2010 RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA



BRIEF TOUCHDOWN REPORTED APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES

NORTHEAST OF UMBARGER. PRELIMINARY POSITION PENDING

STORM SURVEY.



0748 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE UMBARGER 34.99N 102.07W

04/20/2010 M68 MPH RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA



SCHOOLNET REPORT FROM BRANDT FARMS

0831 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE UMBARGER 34.99N 102.07W

04/20/2010 M68 MPH RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA



SCHOOLNET REPORT FROM BRANDT FARMS
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
There she blows ! ( volcano ).

Volcano webcam
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Quoting CycloneOz:
I think these 3-day outlooks are too aggressive to the east.

I've decided to stage myself in Amarillo, TX on Saturday AM...and we'll see.

But I'm willing to bet I could drop down to Childress, TX and be in some bad weather come the PM on Saturday.
have ya picked out your flagpole yet
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah, I found out this AM. :P

That is OK, the TX Panhandle might have more Severe storms today and tomorrow. Plus, you'll have plenty of Tropical systems to chase this year :o).
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
FYI, SDO goes live today at 2:15 EDT. This should be some good stuff :)

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

WASHINGTON -- NASA will hold a news briefing and unveil initial images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, at 2:15 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, April 21, in the atrium of the Newseum. The Newseum is located at 555 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, in Washington. NASA Television and the agency's Web site will provide live coverage of the briefing.

Launched on Feb. 11, 2010, SDO is the most advanced spacecraft ever designed to study the sun and its dynamic behavior. The spacecraft will provide images with clarity ten times better than high definition television and more comprehensive science data faster than any solar observing spacecraft in history.

The participants for this briefing are:

Dean Pesnell, SDO project scientist, Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.
Alan Title, principal investigator, Atmospheric Imaging Assembly instrument, Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory in Palo Alto, Calif.
Philip H. Scherrer, principal investigator, Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument, Stanford University in Palo Alto
Tom Woods, principal investigator, Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment instrument, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado in Boulder
Madhulika Guhathakurta, SDO program scientist, NASA Headquarters in Washington

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Good morning, all! Just a reminder - it's time for the 2010 Portlight/WU Honor Walk & Roll. We're raising money to build permanent shelter in Haiti and to prepare for our domestic disaster response through the upcoming storm season. Get outside, enjoy the Spring weather and help Portlight keep on rockin'!!

You can check out my blog for more info, and visit the Portlight website to download the flyer and sponsorship forms.

As always, we appreciate all of you and your strong and unwavering support!! The WU community is the best anywhere, hands down!!
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Quoting Jeff9641:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
942 AM EDT WED APR 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/TODAY...JUST AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR SPRINKLE EXPECTED OVER
ECFL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER LAST NIGHT`S FIREWORKS
. SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE AREA PRESENTLY...BUT SOME CLEARING IS NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES AND
THIS TREND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRYING IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING TOWARD
THE PENINSULA FROM THE WEST AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WILL DO AN UPDATE TO THE
ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING.

Morning jeff, All of the lightning must of been east of me i only got .006 last night. ok maybe next time.
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The Gulf's impacts are amazing, especially when anomalously cool. Week by week you can almost visualize the heating taking place as you notice subtle differences in weather with each passing week.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter




ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting hydrus:
Just goes to show what a huge impact the Gulf of Mexico has on the weather in North America.
yep always more to the picture than meets the eye
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
GOM cooling effect is whats been hampering entire severe weather season
Just goes to show what a huge impact the Gulf of Mexico has on the weather in North America.
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Good morning everyone, the DFW, TX area is looking to have visitors on Th.Fr of this week:


Oz, sorry you missed out on "storm chasing" yesterday, you missed out on a big supercell complex west of Amarillo, TX.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Names
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Igor Julia Karl Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Tazmanian:
what are the names this year


2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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