The worst is over for the ash clouds from Iceland's volcano

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:56 PM GMT on April 21, 2010

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The worst is now over for European air traffic disruptions from the ongoing eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano. The eruptions are currently only throwing ash up to 16,000 feet (4900 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since Sunday. The lower amounts of ash are due, in part, to the fact that the volcano has melted most of the ice and snow covering the crater. This ice had caused the hot magma erupting through it to fragment into fine ash capable of reaching much higher heights of 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') in the early stages of the eruption. Ash is also reduced because the volcano has entered a phase where it is producing more magma. Although it is possible that the volcano could enter a more explosive eruption phase that would throw ash high into the air once again, the winds are expected to shift over Iceland late this week. The northwest winds that have been "stuck" in place over Iceland over the past week due to a persistent trough of low pressure over northern Europe, will gradually shift to westerly by Friday and southwesterly by Saturday. This means that new eruptive material will blow over the northern British Islands and northern Scandanavia late this week, avoiding the main portion of Europe. Ash should be confined to northern Scandanavia and Greenland through most of next week, since the southwesterly winds are expected to continue through most of next week.


Figure 1. Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano began to ease out of the ash-producing phase of its eruption and started to emit magma on April 19, 2010, said the Icelandic Met Office. The cloud of ash coming from the volcano was lower than it had been in previous days, rising just 4 to 6 kilometers (2 to 3 miles) into the atmosphere. In this photo-like image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, the ash extends south in a broad brown plume. Smaller plumes extend from the coast east of the primary plume. These are likely re-suspended ash, fine volcanic ash that had settled on the land, but is now being picked up by the wind. The plume blows south and then curves east over the ocean, blending with the outer bands of a low-pressure system. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post Thursday (Earth Day!)
Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


Easterlies....do you mean easterlies at the upper levels?



The things you are noticing are likely due to the Kelvin Wave currently propagating eastward over the eastern equatorial Pacific. With it is coming a burst of westerly surface winds consistent with An El Nino condition, which is raising SSTs in the eastern Pacific (Nino 3 region).


When I say "easterlies," what I'm alluding to are winds moving towards the east.

I'm guessing I'm wrong...and those winds moving towards the east are westerlies, huh? :P
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Quoting StormW:



What's missing?




Do I get an "A" for the submitting the correct answer, LOL!!!

I have no idea what's missing! :P
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Ya 965 degrees for Friday Inland is nothing to mess around with. You will have problems keeping the metal objects and glass from melting.

Over 600 degrees and I really start to feel like im burning alive.



Sheesh, I thought this upcoming weekend in Tampa was going to be sweltering!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23912
Quoting CycloneOz:
This is seriously interesting.

El Nino may be waning, but the weather patterns of the Eastern Pacific are reflects that of a powerful El Nino.

Example 1: The jet stream in North America is still plunging down the coast of California and then swinging hard to the east near Southern California.

Example 2: The easterlies are still cranking in the Tropic of Cancer from well out in the Pacific and then through Central and South America. These are the same winds that sheared the African waves of 2009 to pieces!


Easterlies....do you mean easterlies at the upper levels?



The things you are noticing are likely due to the Kelvin Wave currently propagating eastward over the eastern equatorial Pacific. With it is coming a burst of westerly surface winds consistent with An El Nino condition, which is raising SSTs in the eastern Pacific (Nino 3 region).
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26610
This is seriously interesting.

El Nino may be waning, but the weather patterns of the Eastern Pacific are still reflecting that of a powerful El Nino.

Example 1: The jet stream in North America is still plunging down the coast of California and then swinging hard to the east near Southern California.

Example 2: The easterlies are still cranking in the Tropic of Cancer from well out in the Pacific and then through Central and South America. These are the same winds that sheared the African waves of 2009 to pieces!
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UT...FAR SW WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211824Z - 212000Z

THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS ABOUT THE NEED
FOR A WW...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

W/V IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN AND A
BAND OF STRONG MOIST ASCENT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF UT. MEANWHILE...A
SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EWD ACROSS WRN UT. AS THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-700
J/KG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.

DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZATION OF SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS INTO BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINES
WITH SMALL EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.
INVERTED-V SHAPED BL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ALSO SUPPORT
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 04/21/2010


ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 39141191 40031247 41501306 41891243 41791120 41061032
40000951 38870928 38050958 37541086 37801135 39141191
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
126. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 13U
9:00 PM WST April 21 2010
======================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1006 hPa) located at 10.3S 116.4E or 1170 km east of Christmas Island and 1150 km north of Dampier has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west-southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 11.1S 115.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 11.8S 114.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 13.1S 112.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 14.7S 111.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

The low is in an area of very high ocean heat content and low to moderate vertical shear. The mid latitude trough to the southwest and the upper anticyclone just east of the LLCC are providing favourable vertical shear and outflow conditions. Microwave imagery indicates the lower level circulation is becoming more circular and focused. Overall system organisation is steadily improving. ASCAT pass at 0217Z indicates the trough lies just south of 10S and recent microwave imagery, animated VIS/IR imagery and available surface observations concur. Wind speeds are assessed as being 20-25 knots reaching 25-30 knots at times in the southern semicircle.

Shear is forecast to remain low to moderate through Friday and then increase Saturday as the system moves southwestwards towards an almost stationary large amplitude upper trough. By Sunday the system will be under strong northwesterly shear and will be over lower SSTs and should be steadily weakening. By Monday the system should be weak and beginning to be steered by lower level winds out towards the west as deep convection is sheared away.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45229
Hiya, guys,

I've been leaving you guys in peace(?) on the main blog lately, but thought you might want to see this -- don't think anyone else has posted it(?)

6.2-magnitude earthquake strikes Samoa
55 mins ago
Associated Press

SAMOA -- The USGS says a 6.2-magnitude earthquake has hit the Samoa Islands region.

The quake struck 123 miles (198 kilometers) from the Samoa islands at a depth of 19 miles (32 kilometers).

Police in the Samoan capital, Apia, say they have no reports on the temblor. "We didn't feel any earthquake," an officer, who declined to be named, said.

No tsunami warning was issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii.
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Quoting belizeit:
We will see if it really gets that hot but the NATIONAL METEOROLOGY should not make a mistake .



LOL! ROFL!! LOL!
Wish that's the only mistakes ours made.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


Same here.. when it gets really hot there is usually no wind.. aargh! only thing I don't like about Texas summers.

I have been in the DFW, TX for 30 years, I am used to the heat, just drink plenty of water and/or Gatorade to keep hydrated.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:

I know, here in the DFW area the average summer high temp is about 100F/30% humidity/ heat index about 105F. The bad thing is usually the winds a less that 10 MPH when its hot, which makes it "moderately miserable"


Same here.. when it gets really hot there is usually no wind.. aargh! only thing I don't like about Texas summers.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


965 degrees?!!!! whew that's gotta be rough...lol
We will see if it really gets that hot but the NATIONAL METEOROLOGY should not make a mistake .
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Like our son who now lives in Phoenix says, "I don't give a d*** how low the humidity is here, 120 degrees is HOT, wherever you stand."

I know, here in the DFW area the average summer high temp is about 100F/30% humidity/ heat index about 105F. The bad thing is usually the winds a less that 10 MPH when its hot, which makes it "moderately miserable"
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting belizeit:
Link You should check out or temps for Friday and be thankful your not here


Ya 965 degrees for Friday Inland is nothing to mess around with. You will have problems keeping the metal objects and glass from melting.

Over 600 degrees and I really start to feel like im burning alive.

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Quoting belizeit:
Link You should check out or temps for Friday and be thankful your not here


965 degrees?!!!! whew that's gotta be rough...lol
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Quoting Bordonaro:


A moist heat in SE TX, definitely!!

Here in DFW, TX, it's like you just walked into a 450F oven on our 100+F days, a "drier heat".


Like our son who now lives in Phoenix says, "I don't give a d*** how low the humidity is here, 120 degrees is HOT, wherever you stand."
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Jeff9641:


I've had over 21" of rain so far this year and more maybe on the way this afternoon. A significant rain event is coming late Sunday thru Monday when many areas of C FL could get another 1 to 3".


21? Thats impressive, I though the 16.52 was a big deal here.

Yeah we might have some strong or severe thunderstorms with that even too. Even though they aren't mentioning it, summer like dewpoints, high PWATS near 2.00 inches and 90 degree temps will support strong thunderstorms.

The reason they aren't mentioning it, is that computer forecasts suck at forecasting severe weather when you just have air mass conditions that trigger severe weather, rather then cold front dynamics or upper support. That's we even though severe thunderstorms occur often in Florida nearly every day in the wet season, they never have severe weather in the actual forecast products, or severe weather watches.

That is because forecast models cannot detect severe weather potential from local air mass effects. Such as very warm temps in the 90's, sea breeze collisions, and the turbulent and violent, often unpredictable nature of deep tropical air masses.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


That sounds like Southeast Texas... Sometimes we run 100 degrees with nearly 80-90% humidity...you walk outside and instantly start sweating!
Link You should check out or temps for Friday and be thankful your not here
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


That sounds like Southeast Texas... Sometimes we run 100 degrees with nearly 80-90% humidity...you walk outside and instantly start sweating!


A moist heat in SE TX, definitely!!

Here in DFW, TX, it's like you just walked into a 450F oven on our 100 F days, a "drier heat".
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Drakoen,what is the latest on the subsurface waters in the Pacific?
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Quoting leftovers:
if the ash does not clear ocean cruising might be the only way back to the titanic days


Air traffic is heavy all over Europe now. You can see it here. http://www.flightradar24.com/

Now I wish I had saved a copy of what it looked liked before when everything was grounded.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Re: 92. Patrap

Very cool site Patrap, thanks!

Monitoring and Prediction of Modes of Coherent Tropical Variability
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I've been to Key West many times in the summer months and the heat there is the worst. It will literally be 91 with 90 percent humidity.


That sounds like Southeast Texas... Sometimes we run 100 degrees with nearly 80-90% humidity...you walk outside and instantly start sweating!
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Quoting indianrivguy:


I'm thinking I never expected to see those terms in the order I just read them.

Have you been beset recently by a flurry of "big" earthquakes?


LMAO too funny
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
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Quoting belizeit:
At last we have a small earthquake again .


I'm thinking I never expected to see those terms in the order I just read them.

Have you been beset recently by a flurry of "big" earthquakes?
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Make sure you read Patrap's blog on Hurricane Preparedness, this will be a busy season.


your first august in key west will have you on your knees begging for a little tropical storm or minor hurricane to blow by! without tropical storms tropical heat would be unbearable!
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At last we have a small earthquake again 6.2 soloman islands.
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Quoting seflagamma:
Hi everyone,

More rain in SE Florida.. wettest dry season I can remember... we got almost 3" over weekend and almost another 2 last night... We normally do not get 5" of rain in 3 months during Jan - April, and we are getting that much almost every weekend lately.
Adrian, wonder why Dade county is missing these rains and not getting as much as Broward?


Hopefully we will dry out alittle before the next bunch of rain comes.

Enjoy your Wednesday!

Gams




Same thing here in central Florida, we had a massive soaking of 4.26 inches on sunday, almost double the average April MONTHLY rainfall hahaha. Reminded me of the rain that comes with our summer tropical waves.

Also we, had had heavy thunderstorms on the seabreeze monday, around another inch, and a nice steady soaking rain last night, its rained 4 days straight, since saturday, thats a big deal in April...


The thing is though, we have gotten so used to drought conditions in Florida, that this seems unusual, but remember, its not raining every day, and we aren't getting 10 inch totals. So actually this is more like normal as far as the last 100 years in Florida, Cause come the wet season, we are gonna be a whole lot wetter then just a soaking ever 4 days or so.

Most of Florida has been in a long term drought period for 6 to 10 years, we are finally coming out of it!

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Patrap, that graphic kinda looks like a shootin' gallery...
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Finally getting in on some of the heavy rainfall here in Melbourne. Got nothing the past few days when all the areas to the North, South, and West have ben getting flooded.
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Quake was downgraded to 5.9 Mw by the USGS

Magnitude 6.2 - SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
2010 April 21 17:20:31 UTC

* Details
* Maps

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 6.2 (Preliminary magnitude %u2014 update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time

* Wednesday, April 21, 2010 at 17:20:31 UTC
* Thursday, April 22, 2010 at 06:20:31 AM at epicenter

Location 15.239%uFFFDS, 172.828%uFFFDW
Depth 32 km (19.9 miles) set by location program
Region SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
Distances

* 198 km (123 miles) SW (216%uFFFD) from APIA, Samoa
* 253 km (157 miles) WSW (244%uFFFD) from PAGO PAGO, American Samoa
* 399 km (248 miles) NNE (18%uFFFD) from Neiafu, Tonga
* 2493 km (1549 miles) W (272%uFFFD) from PAPEETE, Tahiti, French Polynesia

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST=008, Nph=008, Dmin=185.4 km, Rmss=1.74 sec, Gp=166%uFFFD,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=0
Source

* West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS

Event ID at00187043

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting leftovers:
guess they have an similiar excape pod from the space station?

Yes, I believe they probably have an escape pod.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting TheTJE:
I live down here in Key West; the driest city in FL is not getting any of this weather. We've been bone dry for April! This will be my first hurricane season (I'm from AZ). Here's hoping it isn't as bad as predicted.

Make sure you read Patrap's blog on Hurricane Preparedness, this will be a busy season.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846


Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:


Easy for you to say! ;>)

The article loses something translation. However, increased seismic activity and more steam/ash is erupting suddenly than in the past few days.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
I live down here in Key West; the driest city in FL is not getting any of this weather. We've been bone dry for April! This will be my first hurricane season (I'm from AZ). Here's hoping it isn't as bad as predicted.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
From mbl.is, translated using Firefox translator:

Gosmökkurinn increased suddenly Send news Print news reading news story Share Share on ...

Facebook Deliverables Cancel Twitter Digg StumbleUpon blog about news from Gosmökkur Eyjafjallajökull increased suddenly now available for on 17 Police and Rescue teams are under Eyjafjöllum check is said to happen. Images from inline engines can see that Mocha instrument is very ljós.Sjónarvottur which is present near Þorvaldseyri said that he and his partners have seen a new bólstur step up at about 17:00, they felt just south of the crater that has erupted from the past. They told the police immediately. "It was just a small strokes first," said reflected optical Circle. Shortly later changed vindáttin and clouds hide wrap view of the glacier, but Mocha light steam rose from the clouds. Gosórói increased slightly under the recommended service today afternoon. He was not more than the top in turbulence have been in recent days, reportedly increased sharply jarðvísindamanns.Gosmökkurinn Send News Print News Print News Readings on reading the news article Share Share Share story on ...

Facebook Share Share Deliverables Cancel Share Twitter Share Share Digg StumbleUpon blog about news blog about news from Gosmökkur Eyjafjallajökull increased suddenly now available for on 17 Police and Rescue teams are under Eyjafjöllum check is said to happen. Images from inline engines can see that Mocha instrument is very light.

Sjónarvottur which is present near Þorvaldseyri said that he and his partners have seen a new bólstur step up at about 17:00, they felt just south of the crater that has erupted from the past. They told the police immediately.

"It was just a small strokes first," said reflected optical Circle.

Shortly later changed vindáttin and clouds hide wrap view of the glacier, but Mocha light steam rose from the clouds.

Gosórói increased slightly under the recommended service today afternoon. He was not more than the top in turbulence have been in recent days, according to soil scientist.


Easy for you to say! ;>)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
From mbl.is, translated using Firefox translator:

Gosmkkurinn increased suddenly

Gosmkkur from Eyjafjallajkull increased suddenly now available for on 17 Police and Rescue teams are under Eyjafjllum check is said to happen. Images from inline engines can see that Mocha instrument is very light.

Sjnarvottur which is present near orvaldseyri said that he and his partners have seen a new blstur step up at about 17:00, they felt just south of the crater that has erupted from the past. They told the police immediately.

"It was just a small strokes first," said reflected optical Circle.

Shortly later changed vindttin and clouds hide wrap view of the glacier, but Mocha light steam rose from the clouds.

Gosri increased slightly under the recommended service today afternoon. He was not more than the top in turbulence have been in recent days, according to soil scientist.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Regarding #71:
Levi32 (or anyone else who wants to take a stab at it...)

Shouldn't that more southerly moisture impact the SAL? Could that implicate the potential for more dust this season?

Any thoughts would be most appreciated... TIA
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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