The worst is over for the ash clouds from Iceland's volcano
The worst is now over for European air traffic disruptions from the ongoing eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano. The eruptions are currently only throwing ash up to 16,000 feet (4900 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since Sunday. The lower amounts of ash are due, in part, to the fact that the volcano has melted most of the ice and snow covering the crater. This ice had caused the hot magma erupting through it to fragment into fine ash capable of reaching much higher heights of 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') in the early stages of the eruption. Ash is also reduced because the volcano has entered a phase where it is producing more magma. Although it is possible that the volcano could enter a more explosive eruption phase that would throw ash high into the air once again, the winds are expected to shift over Iceland late this week. The northwest winds that have been "stuck" in place over Iceland over the past week due to a persistent trough of low pressure over northern Europe, will gradually shift to westerly by Friday and southwesterly by Saturday. This means that new eruptive material will blow over the northern British Islands and northern Scandanavia late this week, avoiding the main portion of Europe. Ash should be confined to northern Scandanavia and Greenland through most of next week, since the southwesterly winds are expected to continue through most of next week.
Figure 1. Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano began to ease out of the ash-producing phase of its eruption and started to emit magma on April 19, 2010, said the Icelandic Met Office. The cloud of ash coming from the volcano was lower than it had been in previous days, rising just 4 to 6 kilometers (2 to 3 miles) into the atmosphere. In this photo-like image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, the ash extends south in a broad brown plume. Smaller plumes extend from the coast east of the primary plume. These are likely re-suspended ash, fine volcanic ash that had settled on the land, but is now being picked up by the wind. The plume blows south and then curves east over the ocean, blending with the outer bands of a low-pressure system. Image credit: NASA.
I'll have a new post Thursday (Earth Day!)
Jeff Masters
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your first august in key west will have you on your knees begging for a little tropical storm or minor hurricane to blow by! without tropical storms tropical heat would be unbearable!
I'm thinking I never expected to see those terms in the order I just read them.
Have you been beset recently by a flurry of "big" earthquakes?
LMAO too funny
That sounds like Southeast Texas... Sometimes we run 100 degrees with nearly 80-90% humidity...you walk outside and instantly start sweating!
Very cool site Patrap, thanks!
Monitoring and Prediction of Modes of Coherent Tropical Variability
Air traffic is heavy all over Europe now. You can see it here. http://www.flightradar24.com/
Now I wish I had saved a copy of what it looked liked before when everything was grounded.
A moist heat in SE TX, definitely!!
Here in DFW, TX, it's like you just walked into a 450F oven on our 100 F days, a "drier heat".
21? Thats impressive, I though the 16.52 was a big deal here.
Yeah we might have some strong or severe thunderstorms with that even too. Even though they aren't mentioning it, summer like dewpoints, high PWATS near 2.00 inches and 90 degree temps will support strong thunderstorms.
The reason they aren't mentioning it, is that computer forecasts suck at forecasting severe weather when you just have air mass conditions that trigger severe weather, rather then cold front dynamics or upper support. That's we even though severe thunderstorms occur often in Florida nearly every day in the wet season, they never have severe weather in the actual forecast products, or severe weather watches.
That is because forecast models cannot detect severe weather potential from local air mass effects. Such as very warm temps in the 90's, sea breeze collisions, and the turbulent and violent, often unpredictable nature of deep tropical air masses.
Like our son who now lives in Phoenix says, "I don't give a d*** how low the humidity is here, 120 degrees is HOT, wherever you stand."
965 degrees?!!!! whew that's gotta be rough...lol
Ya 965 degrees for Friday Inland is nothing to mess around with. You will have problems keeping the metal objects and glass from melting.
Over 600 degrees and I really start to feel like im burning alive.
I know, here in the DFW area the average summer high temp is about 100F/30% humidity/ heat index about 105F. The bad thing is usually the winds a less that 10 MPH when its hot, which makes it "moderately miserable"
Same here.. when it gets really hot there is usually no wind.. aargh! only thing I don't like about Texas summers.
I have been in the DFW, TX for 30 years, I am used to the heat, just drink plenty of water and/or Gatorade to keep hydrated.
LOL! ROFL!! LOL!
Wish that's the only mistakes ours made.
I've been leaving you guys in peace(?) on the main blog lately, but thought you might want to see this -- don't think anyone else has posted it(?)
6.2-magnitude earthquake strikes Samoa
55 mins ago
Associated Press
SAMOA -- The USGS says a 6.2-magnitude earthquake has hit the Samoa Islands region.
The quake struck 123 miles (198 kilometers) from the Samoa islands at a depth of 19 miles (32 kilometers).
Police in the Samoan capital, Apia, say they have no reports on the temblor. "We didn't feel any earthquake," an officer, who declined to be named, said.
No tsunami warning was issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 13U
9:00 PM WST April 21 2010
======================================
At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1006 hPa) located at 10.3S 116.4E or 1170 km east of Christmas Island and 1150 km north of Dampier has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west-southwest at 3 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 11.1S 115.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 11.8S 114.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 13.1S 112.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 14.7S 111.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
The low is in an area of very high ocean heat content and low to moderate vertical shear. The mid latitude trough to the southwest and the upper anticyclone just east of the LLCC are providing favourable vertical shear and outflow conditions. Microwave imagery indicates the lower level circulation is becoming more circular and focused. Overall system organisation is steadily improving. ASCAT pass at 0217Z indicates the trough lies just south of 10S and recent microwave imagery, animated VIS/IR imagery and available surface observations concur. Wind speeds are assessed as being 20-25 knots reaching 25-30 knots at times in the southern semicircle.
Shear is forecast to remain low to moderate through Friday and then increase Saturday as the system moves southwestwards towards an almost stationary large amplitude upper trough. By Sunday the system will be under strong northwesterly shear and will be over lower SSTs and should be steadily weakening. By Monday the system should be weak and beginning to be steered by lower level winds out towards the west as deep convection is sheared away.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UT...FAR SW WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211824Z - 212000Z
THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS ABOUT THE NEED
FOR A WW...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
W/V IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN AND A
BAND OF STRONG MOIST ASCENT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF UT. MEANWHILE...A
SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EWD ACROSS WRN UT. AS THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-700
J/KG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZATION OF SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS INTO BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINES
WITH SMALL EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.
INVERTED-V SHAPED BL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ALSO SUPPORT
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..ROGERS.. 04/21/2010
ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 39141191 40031247 41501306 41891243 41791120 41061032
40000951 38870928 38050958 37541086 37801135 39141191
Easterlies....do you mean easterlies at the upper levels?
The things you are noticing are likely due to the Kelvin Wave currently propagating eastward over the eastern equatorial Pacific. With it is coming a burst of westerly surface winds consistent with An El Nino condition, which is raising SSTs in the eastern Pacific (Nino 3 region).
Sheesh, I thought this upcoming weekend in Tampa was going to be sweltering!
Well, think of the "mid-latitude westerlies" when we are talking about the jetstream. I get it wrong a lot too lol...."easterly" means winds coming from the east. "EastWARD" means winds moving towards the east.
So what you are talking about in the eastern Pacific are anomalous surface westerlies, associated with the Kelvin Wave.
Well, not to be picky or anything lol, but the TUTT is primarily a summer-time feature and does not yet climatologically exist in April. Hence, I'm not sure why you say it's "missing" lol.
You can see it quite well in August:
Consider it was 1780, I'll give them a pass on calling it a hurricane.
In addition, the description states violent thunder and lightning. That also is not typical of hurricanes. This storm may have more closely resembled the 1993 Storm of the Century.
Slow news day...
Police in the Samoan capital, Apia, say they have no reports on the temblor. "We didn't feel any earthquake," an officer, who declined to be named, said.
At least the humidity will be low. Until Sunday/Monday. Thursday through Saturday I feel dewpoints will crash(to the 40's) each afternoon as dry air mixes to the surface(due to high pressure overhead). Choking out any chance of duirmal activity until at least Sunday.
Sunday and Monday will be a different story altogether. A combination of a strong front with daytime heat, rising humidity, and seabreeze circulations will easily destabilize the atmosphere-Producing popcorn thunderstorms especially Monday(as the front get ever closer).
Also it appears a brief cool down(70's) will commence behind that cold front for next week.
There is a first person account of the 1979 one in Camping and Cruising by Dr. James Henshell, who was on a camping trip in Florida when we experienced it. The Cape Canaveral Lighthouse shook bad enough for the oil to be shaken out of it's reservoir for the wick. At Jupiter Light, the Keeper who was in the tower came down in "record" time.
My source for the 1780 one is from an article in Pensacola History Illustrated by Thomas Muir Jr. found in Jay Barnes Florida's Hurricane History book. He says the earthquake was Feb 6 1780 and that there was a "tidal wave" the source is a diary from a Spanish Priest and I have been trying to acquire it for years.
A tsunami from this event would indicate a Gulf Of Mexico origin...
http://www.youtube.com//SDOmission2009
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Didn't one or two days ago, I predicted that there would be another Earthquake? This is not surprising. Those experts that say "oh... it's only happening in more populated areas" are rubbish. Pure rubbish.
Yeah, the last few runs of the GFS have been shifting the most favorable environment for tropical development more into the eastern Pacific than the SW Caribbean.
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