The worst is over for the ash clouds from Iceland's volcano
The worst is now over for European air traffic disruptions from the ongoing eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallaj枚kull volcano. The eruptions are currently only throwing ash up to 16,000 feet (4900 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since Sunday. The lower amounts of ash are due, in part, to the fact that the volcano has melted most of the ice and snow covering the crater. This ice had caused the hot magma erupting through it to fragment into fine ash capable of reaching much higher heights of 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') in the early stages of the eruption. Ash is also reduced because the volcano has entered a phase where it is producing more magma. Although it is possible that the volcano could enter a more explosive eruption phase that would throw ash high into the air once again, the winds are expected to shift over Iceland late this week. The northwest winds that have been "stuck" in place over Iceland over the past week due to a persistent trough of low pressure over northern Europe, will gradually shift to westerly by Friday and southwesterly by Saturday. This means that new eruptive material will blow over the northern British Islands and northern Scandanavia late this week, avoiding the main portion of Europe. Ash should be confined to northern Scandanavia and Greenland through most of next week, since the southwesterly winds are expected to continue through most of next week.
Figure 1. Iceland鈥檚 Eyjafjallaj枚kull volcano began to ease out of the ash-producing phase of its eruption and started to emit magma on April 19, 2010, said the Icelandic Met Office. The cloud of ash coming from the volcano was lower than it had been in previous days, rising just 4 to 6 kilometers (2 to 3 miles) into the atmosphere. In this photo-like image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA鈥檚 Terra satellite, the ash extends south in a broad brown plume. Smaller plumes extend from the coast east of the primary plume. These are likely re-suspended ash, fine volcanic ash that had settled on the land, but is now being picked up by the wind. The plume blows south and then curves east over the ocean, blending with the outer bands of a low-pressure system. Image credit: NASA.
I'll have a new post Thursday (Earth Day!)
Jeff Masters
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todays tornado outlook
Don't know about S Fl, just was looking at the radar from nws jax. There was a very light and very thin line up the middle of the peninsula, a couple counties west of Duval. I don't think it extended far south, but I wasn't really paying attention to it.
I was actually surprised it was there. Didn't seem warm enough for that.
I have noticed the clouds are getting a bit more puffy looking.
Anyway, I am loving the mild days and cool nights for as long as they last.
The GOM only supplies moisture for the Continental severe storm Outbreaks and the main forcings are the Continental drivers,which havent really begun in Ernest.
The area of New South Wales in drought has dropped dramatically.
Recent heavy rains have seen the figure fall to 7.3 per cent of the state in March.
In February, 39.8 per cent of New South Wales was in drought - in January the figure was 81 per cent.
Areas that moved out of drought last month include Wagga Wagga in the state's south, Lake Cargelligo in the central west and Menindee in the far west.
Bathurst, Broken Hill and Wilcannia are among the areas which moved from marginal to satisfactory.
The only decline from satisfactory to marginal was a part of New England near Uralla, in the state's north west.
The Primary Industries Minister Steve Whan says they are the best drought figures for nine years.
"We know that there is still tough times for many people but it is great to see this sort of news," he said.
"I know from talking to people and farmers that there is a lot of smiles out there at the moment.
"We are seeing a lot more confidence about planting crops and of course we are getting cattle with some decent feed and that is terrific news for people."
But Mr Whan is worried that more than half of the state is considered marginal.
"If conditions don't continue with some rainfall they could actually slip back into drought so that is something we will keep a close eye on," he said.
He is also concerned that the state's large water storage levels remain low - at just 28.8 per cent of capacity.
漏 ABC 2010
About 3.0 Mw, most quakes were in the 1-2 Mw range.
Should get a real kick in the pants with high pressure settling in for the next week. Temps will be approaching 90 around the peninsula.
Eastern Australia has had plenty of rain but the western side has had very little. That's the difference in this country between El Nino and La Nina.
Goodnight all, Stay safe :-)
El Nino is fading quickly, so hopefully, over the next few months your rainfall will increase to normal/above normal.
Thanks for that good news. Just kidding, the DFW, TX area has been very quiet so far this spring, but I am sure that will not last!
GOM VISIBLE
From CPC:
Latest Text Summary
During the period from April 1-10,2010, the mean western portion of the ITF was approximated at 10.3N and experienced a moderate lag compared to the mean climatological ITF position at 11.5N for early April. The western portion of the ITF is also more southerly than the same dekad of 2009 when the ITF was around 11.0N. The eastern portion of the ITF also experienced a slight lag during the last dekad, with an anomalous latitudinal displacement of -0.5 degrees. Figure 1 shows the current position compared to normal, and the current equatorward shift of the ITF is likely due to rains and moisture being confined in the lower Gulf of Guinea region, and parts of the southern Central African Republic. It is clear that both the eastern and westen positions of the ITF are more southerly than normal, as depicted by Figures 2 and 3.
My kids live --- guess where!!!
Tulsa and Oklahoma City.
I told them I have doubts about their ability to pick a decent place to live. LOL
By Ramon Antonio Vargas, The Times-Picayune
April 21, 2010, 10:33AM
Rescuers have found the 11 people who went missing shortly after the oil drilling rig they were aboard exploded and caught fire in the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday, according to Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser.
Nungesser said he received reports that the workers are alive and safe.
The Coast Guard was trying to verify this information at 10:48 a.m.CDT
eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli which appears to be looking towards the north
and
eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk which appears to be looking towards the south, southwest?
Now the fra-thorolfsfelli view also has the actual vent depressed somewhere behind a ridge.. the plume is already spread by the time it comes into view.
The fra-valahnjuk view has us much closer to the vent and the plume is still narrow..(welll, as I wrote, it got bigger and spread out.. it still does not look the same as the other view tho.)
the question.. are they of the same vent?
That would be very good news indeed... I had figured they were blown overboard with the explosion.
The Escape Pod/Capsule is a WUnderful thing when its time to get...in a hurry.
And Im sure these men are thankful for all the Required training for such a event.
Also the weather was clear and calm at the time of the Explosion and fire.
Blogger JFlorida has a nice entry on the injured and the accident
From everything I understand, these are the same vents. They are just different cam angles which can be a little confusing.
add: I have gotten a lot of good information from here the last few days. http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/
And after the Shuttles retire this year,with 3 flights remaining The Soyuz will be the only access Up and down from ISS.
Thanks.. it may be the disparity in how "current" my view is too.. the eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli camera has not refreshed since I posed the question.. but I know if I refresh, it won't reload, too many computers awake and watching now. In the eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk view, the sun is now behind the plume putting into a shadow..
I must say again how pleased I am the roughnecks were found okay.
I have refreshed the web-cam pictures several times, just recently a matter of fact, and the reload ok for me.
However, there appears to be a low cloud deck moving in blocking most of the current eruption. Today's activity appears to be greatly increased from what little I saw yesterday.
More rain in SE Florida.. wettest dry season I can remember... we got almost 3" over weekend and almost another 2 last night... We normally do not get 5" of rain in 3 months during Jan - April, and we are getting that much almost every weekend lately.
Adrian, wonder why Dade county is missing these rains and not getting as much as Broward?
Hopefully we will dry out alittle before the next bunch of rain comes.
Enjoy your Wednesday!
Gams
Levi32 (or anyone else who wants to take a stab at it...)
Shouldn't that more southerly moisture impact the SAL? Could that implicate the potential for more dust this season?
Any thoughts would be most appreciated... TIA
Gosm鰇kurinn increased suddenly
Gosm鰇kur from Eyjafjallaj鰇ull increased suddenly now available for on 17 Police and Rescue teams are under Eyjafj鰈lum check is said to happen. Images from inline engines can see that Mocha instrument is very light.
Sj髇arvottur which is present near 辭rvaldseyri said that he and his partners have seen a new b髄stur step up at about 17:00, they felt just south of the crater that has erupted from the past. They told the police immediately.
"It was just a small strokes first," said reflected optical Circle.
Shortly later changed vind醫tin and clouds hide wrap view of the glacier, but Mocha light steam rose from the clouds.
Gos髍骾 increased slightly under the recommended service today afternoon. He was not more than the top in turbulence have been in recent days, according to soil scientist.
Easy for you to say! ;>)
The article loses something translation. However, increased seismic activity and more steam/ash is erupting suddenly than in the past few days.
Make sure you read Patrap's blog on Hurricane Preparedness, this will be a busy season.
Yes, I believe they probably have an escape pod.
Magnitude 6.2 - SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
2010 April 21 17:20:31 UTC
* Details
* Maps
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 6.2 (Preliminary magnitude %u2014 update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time
* Wednesday, April 21, 2010 at 17:20:31 UTC
* Thursday, April 22, 2010 at 06:20:31 AM at epicenter
Location 15.239%uFFFDS, 172.828%uFFFDW
Depth 32 km (19.9 miles) set by location program
Region SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
Distances
* 198 km (123 miles) SW (216%uFFFD) from APIA, Samoa
* 253 km (157 miles) WSW (244%uFFFD) from PAGO PAGO, American Samoa
* 399 km (248 miles) NNE (18%uFFFD) from Neiafu, Tonga
* 2493 km (1549 miles) W (272%uFFFD) from PAPEETE, Tahiti, French Polynesia
Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST=008, Nph=008, Dmin=185.4 km, Rmss=1.74 sec, Gp=166%uFFFD,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=0
Source
* West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS
Event ID at00187043
* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist
Same thing here in central Florida, we had a massive soaking of 4.26 inches on sunday, almost double the average April MONTHLY rainfall hahaha. Reminded me of the rain that comes with our summer tropical waves.
Also we, had had heavy thunderstorms on the seabreeze monday, around another inch, and a nice steady soaking rain last night, its rained 4 days straight, since saturday, thats a big deal in April...
The thing is though, we have gotten so used to drought conditions in Florida, that this seems unusual, but remember, its not raining every day, and we aren't getting 10 inch totals. So actually this is more like normal as far as the last 100 years in Florida, Cause come the wet season, we are gonna be a whole lot wetter then just a soaking ever 4 days or so.
Most of Florida has been in a long term drought period for 6 to 10 years, we are finally coming out of it!
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