The worst is over for the ash clouds from Iceland's volcano

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:56 PM GMT on April 21, 2010

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The worst is now over for European air traffic disruptions from the ongoing eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano. The eruptions are currently only throwing ash up to 16,000 feet (4900 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since Sunday. The lower amounts of ash are due, in part, to the fact that the volcano has melted most of the ice and snow covering the crater. This ice had caused the hot magma erupting through it to fragment into fine ash capable of reaching much higher heights of 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') in the early stages of the eruption. Ash is also reduced because the volcano has entered a phase where it is producing more magma. Although it is possible that the volcano could enter a more explosive eruption phase that would throw ash high into the air once again, the winds are expected to shift over Iceland late this week. The northwest winds that have been "stuck" in place over Iceland over the past week due to a persistent trough of low pressure over northern Europe, will gradually shift to westerly by Friday and southwesterly by Saturday. This means that new eruptive material will blow over the northern British Islands and northern Scandanavia late this week, avoiding the main portion of Europe. Ash should be confined to northern Scandanavia and Greenland through most of next week, since the southwesterly winds are expected to continue through most of next week.


Figure 1. Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano began to ease out of the ash-producing phase of its eruption and started to emit magma on April 19, 2010, said the Icelandic Met Office. The cloud of ash coming from the volcano was lower than it had been in previous days, rising just 4 to 6 kilometers (2 to 3 miles) into the atmosphere. In this photo-like image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, the ash extends south in a broad brown plume. Smaller plumes extend from the coast east of the primary plume. These are likely re-suspended ash, fine volcanic ash that had settled on the land, but is now being picked up by the wind. The plume blows south and then curves east over the ocean, blending with the outer bands of a low-pressure system. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post Thursday (Earth Day!)
Jeff Masters

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Exactly my feelings Presslord. When I logged on several years ago. I loved weather but didn't really no much, you hang around here long enough you realize how much you don't know, but at least you know where to go and who to listen too. Everyone good luck this season it looks like we are going to need some. Futures market in oil looking very tempting, sad to say.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Why El Nino 1-2 has you concerned?


In short terms...El Niño-like characteristics may linger for a while.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13786
new blog
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
381. IKE
NEW BLOG!
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380. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just think t2 months ago you were in the 20 and 30's


And February 12th it snowed here.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Nino region 1 2 has me a bit concerned. Those below average pressures from the ECMWF are insane. Updated heat content.



Why El Nino 1-2 has you concerned?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253
Quoting hurricane23:
Nino region 1 2 has me a bit worried. Those below average pressures from the ECMWF are insane. Updated heat content.



It's also scary because the waters in that area are very deep.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting presslord:
ya know....reading back over the posts here...it's just stunning what a wealth of information is available here...


Its a great learning environment.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Quoting IKE:
Not a lot of trolls on here this team of year. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end...just wait til the heart of the season.

I noticed Accuweather is forecasting around 90 for me by May 1st.
just think t2 months ago you were in the 20 and 30's
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting presslord:
ya know....reading back over the posts here...it's just stunning what a wealth of information is available here...

Yeah...reminds me of the conversations my father (an engineer for AT&T) used to have with me. I'd pretend to understand and listen but really had only a vague idea of what he was talking about! I think it helped him to frame his thoughts and figure things out though. Prolly kinda like talking to your pet.
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Whoa! Not liking this.

2005:


2010:
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
373. IKE
Not a lot of trolls on here this team of year. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end...just wait til the heart of the season.

I noticed Accuweather is forecasting around 90 for me by May 1st.
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Nino region 1 2 has me a bit concerned. Those below average pressures from the ECMWF are insane. Updated heat content.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13786
ya know....reading back over the posts here...it's just stunning what a wealth of information is available here...
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Not sure if this is updated, but here's the Nino 3.4 plume. La Nina by August?

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
The ECMWF updated is lower with the MSLP

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Running out of water...
Link
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Good morning. Gorgeous day here in ECFL except for the chain saw going out front because the power lines were eaten away by the trees!
I am looking forward to reading Dr. Masters' Earth Day blog.
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365. ackee
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ECMWF updated its forecast maps and it looks 2x more scary than the last one. Heres a link to them all. The whole basin is below average in terms of MSLP. Alos the SST and rain forecasts look pretty interesting as well.

MSLP for JJA.


MSLP for JAS
look on seasonal rain and sea pressure for carrbbean really looks bad any thoughts
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Quoting CycloneOz:




Wow! Stellar!
"stellar." Nice word choice for this lol.
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363. IKE
This year has the potential to be bad in the Atlantic. That's all I'll say about it. I'll leave it at that.

The clock is ticking....

Down to....

952 hours...
30 minutes...and it starts....
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Latest CFS SST forecast for September is downright scary. It has us as warm as the Indian ocean!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
ECMWF updated its forecast maps and it looks 2x more scary than the last one. Heres a link to them all. The whole basin is below average in terms of MSLP. Alos the SST and rain forecasts look pretty interesting as well.

MSLP for JJA.


MSLP for JAS
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889


Quoting P451:
Nasa Probe's incredible new pics of the sun.



Wow! Stellar!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3684
Good morning and Happy Earth Day. There is new invest 90W in the WPAC basin.

Link
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357. SLU


Happy Earth Day
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Quoting Skyepony:
Top scientists call for research on climate link to volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis
April 19, 2010

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the solid Earth, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. This response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a wide range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and sub-aerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide %u2019splash%u2019 waves glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilisation. Looking ahead, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a world warmed by anthropogenic climate change, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere.


If we could just eradicate mankind, then the Earth would be able to orbit in peace. Darn...

Are these scientists or blithering idiots?

As predicted, it did not take but a handful of months for people to say that ANTHROPOGENIC (fancy!) climate change is the root cause for EVERYTHING that happens on the Earth.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3684
Morning all, 39 days to Hurricane season.
Heading out the door, going to be a warm one today in FL in my neck of the woods!
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KOG 349, Re: SST's 2005 vs 2010, great similarity. Southern GOM/BOC appears slightly cooler this year than 2005. So why do I have a bad feeling about the BOC for early this season?
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352. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 13U
3:00 PM WST April 22 2010
======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1004 hPa) located at 12.4S 115.7E or 1110 km east of Christmas Island and 940 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south-southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 115.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.7S 113.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.8S 111.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 16.5S 109.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Addition Information
=====================
Convection has persisted near the low level circulation centre although the areal extent and curved band/peripheral convective features remain relatively weak. The most recent microwave imagery does suggest some improvement in the convective band. Dvorak intensity: DT=2.0 based on 0.3 curved band; D- 24h trend gives MET=2.0, PAT=2.0, and hence FT/CI=2.0.

The low remains in an area of low vertical wind shear, very high ocean heat content [SST>30C] and upper-level poleward outflow associated with a large amplitude strong mid-latitude trough to the southwest; all features conducive for further development. These environmental conditions are expected to continue in the next 36 hours so development is forecast although the rate remains somewhat uncertain and models do not favour rapid intensification. It is possible that the circulation may be smaller than is normal, supported by the current extent of convection. This may result in greater fluctuations in intensity than is typical.

During Saturday the shear should increase as the system moves southwestwards towards the near stationary upper trough. By Sunday the system will be under strong northwesterly shear and will be over lower SSTs and should be steadily weakening. By Monday the system should be weak and beginning to be steered by lower level winds out towards the west as deep convection is sheared away.
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SPC 0600Z update. Th 4-22 & Fr 4-23-/10 will be a BUSY days. This is the "Hail Threat" for both days:


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350. xcool
i'm ready for the season now ......





GFS
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here is a compare map april 20 2005 and 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
348. Skyepony (Mod)
Top scientists call for research on climate link to volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis
April 19, 2010

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the solid Earth, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. This response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a wide range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and sub-aerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide ’splash’ waves glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilisation. Looking ahead, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a world warmed by anthropogenic climate change, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere.
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347. xcool
39 Days until Hurricane Season yayyyyy
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Quoting xcool:
look at 2010 vs 2005 biggg different.

I actually thought the looked remarkably similar...
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345. Skyepony (Mod)
These SDO images & movies are great.
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344. xcool
look at 2010 vs 2005 biggg different.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no help4u


lol lol lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
Quoting FloridaTigers:


It'd be interesting to see how long it takes for the SST's to reach that 4/25/05 point.


Probably early May if things continue to warm at this rate.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


2005 dropped significantly in TCHP after April 15th. Then between April 20-25 there is an exponential increase in SST's and TCHP. This increase is what made the season very interesting.

We'll need quite a burst of warm temps to match that magnitude of TCHP and SST's.
-------------------------------------------
Amazing increase.
April, 20 2005


April, 25 2005


It'd be interesting to see how long it takes for the SST's to reach that 4/25/05 point.
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Quoting Levi32:
What's up with these maps.....depth of 26C isotherm? I don't think SSTs are 26C all the way up to 40N right now.


maybe it's Fahrenheit ;)
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What's up with these maps.....depth of 26C isotherm? I don't think SSTs are 26C all the way up to 40N right now.

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@ Levi ... without the date posted looking at either map I probably couldn't have told you which was which. thats not good.
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Quoting Levi32:


2005:



2010:



2005 dropped significantly in TCHP after April 15th. Then between April 20-25 there is an exponential increase in SST's and TCHP. This increase is what made the season very interesting.

We'll need quite a burst of warm temps to match that magnitude of TCHP and SST's.
-------------------------------------------
Amazing increase.
April, 20 2005


April, 25 2005
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Quoting SevereHurricane:
I'm going to call AOML tomorrow to find out whats the deal with the water temperature maps not updating.


That would be nice to know.
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I'm going to call AOML tomorrow to find out whats the deal with the water temperature maps not updating.
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Quoting Levi32:


2005:



2010:



Too bad AOML isn't updating...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.