Forecasting the volcanic ash plume of Iceland's volcano
The eruption of Iceland's volcano with the unpronounceable name, Eyjafjallajökull, has virtually ceased over the past few hours, with ash only reaching up to 6,000 feet (1800 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since midnight local time today. The relatively small amount of ash present at low altitudes will probably not be able to make it all the way to mainland Europe before falling to the surface and dissipating, since 6,000 feet is below the altitude that the strong winds of jet stream blow. Wednesday through Sunday, the volcano emitted a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The jet stream blows strongly at that altitude range, which allowed for efficient transport of the ash cloud to mainland Europe.
Figure 1. Lightning lights up the night sky in this photo of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption taken on April 16, 2010. Ash particles colliding together separate electric charge, much as ice particles in a thunderstorm do, leading to spectacular lightning displays. Image credit: Marco, Fulle, Stromboli Online.
Forecasts of the movement of the ash cloud are made using trajectory models, which have a number of uncertainties to consider. Firstly, the amount of ash ejected by the volcano is highly uncertain, since our measurements of this quantity are limited. Secondly, the models must compute how high the ash cloud will rise (plume rise), based on the best available measurements of atmospheric stability. Since upper air-observations are taken just twice daily by a very coarse network of balloon soundings, our knowledge of the stability is rather crude. Finally, the trajectory models use forecast winds from a global model such as the GFS model to predict where the plume may go. The forecast winds from this model do not capture much of the complicated structure of the wind field over Europe, leading to a rather fuzzy approximation of where the ash will go. Nevertheless, these models have in general done a respectable job forecasting where the ash from Eyjafjallajökull will go over the past few days.
Figure 2. Cross section of the atmosphere over time over Paliseau, France, on April 16, 2010, as observed using ground-based lidar. Image taken using a 532nm cross polarization NFOV telescope. Note how the ash layer sinks closer to the ground as time progresses, as gravity makes the ash sink to the ground. There may also be some atmospheric subsidence occurring (downward moving air due to large-scale atmospheric processes.) Image credit: Ray Hoff, World Meteorological Organization's Global Atmosphere Watch's Aerosol Lidar Network (GALION).
For the next few days, these models continue to indicate that northwest winds at the jet stream level will continue to affect Iceland. As a result, Spain, Portugal, and Greece will offer the best locations to fly from. The northwesterly winds are expected to continue for the remainder of the week, thanks to an upper-level trough of low pressure over northern Europe. On Saturday April 24, the ECMWF model predicts that the trough will slide eastwards, and a ridge of high pressure will build over Europe. This will bring upper-level winds out of the southwest to Iceland, directing any volcanic ash northwards over the North Pole. Thus for the remainder of this week, expect continued ash clouds over much of Europe if the volcano resumes significant eruptions. But by next Sunday, the ash over Europe should decline considerably. For the latest one-day forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne also has some excellent simulations from an atmospheric dispersion model of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption plume. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has 1-day forecasts showing a cross section of the atmosphere. NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) lets you perform your own model run using their HYSPLIT model, going out up to 48 hours, using the GFS model as input.
Figure 3. NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image of the eruption at 1:20 UTC on April 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Links
An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate. Finally, we need to be keeping an eye on earthquake activity at the dangerous Katla volcano next to Eyjafjallajökull. If that volcano blows, it could mean dwarf the headaches caused by Eyjafjallajökull.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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not true, the web recorder shows an increase since the one who can't be named decreased.
MAP 5.2 2010/04/20 00:17:08 -30.530 121.653 10.0 WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Link
Yah also the featured on Wikipedia's front page.
In that region this time of year, it will probably just fizzle.
You're right, I guess I should have said, no signs of an eruption at this time. I believe they are still not sure what all the web recorder info means. And I'm guessing the Western Australia info was to throw me off. LOL
Wow, a 5.2Mw quake about 400 miles from a plate boundary??
Katla, in my opinion, will be next on the hit parade, especially if seismic activity is increasing under her!!
it was added info.
i just think it strange how the one calmed down and Katla had an increase in those graphs. I remember watching the ones in alaska all the time and you would see major spikes and nothing ever came of it.
a volcano in iceland
Katla is the nearby volcano to "E" that's erupting now. When "E" has erupted in the past 3 eruptions, Katla went off next!
Eyjafjallaj%uFFFDl is pronounced similar to "EYE-a-fyat-la-yu-goot.
Here's another nice piece of meterological trivia:
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, also known as MODIS, is an instrument that flies aboard both NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. MODIS captures daily visible and infrared earth imagery and has provided daily images of the volcanic plume. NASA%u2019s MODIS instrument and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, both of which fly on Aqua, contain sulfur dioxide (SO2) absorption channels to enhance volcanic ash detection. These applications have significantly improved upon existing satellite-based multi-spectral techniques in identifying and tracking ash clouds and estimating their height.
Here's the link:
redorbit
Do, a dear, a female dear
Ra, drop of golden sun
Me, a name I call myself
Fa, a long, long way to run,
So, a needle pulling thread,
La, a note to follow so
Te, a drink with jam and bread,
That leads us back to do
Katla Volcano is located in southern Iceland under Mýrdalsjökull glacier. It is considered the most dangerous volcano in Iceland.
The highest points of the ice cap lie on the caldera rim and include Goðabunga, Háabunga, Austmannsbunga, Enta, Entukollar.
Eruptions at Katla volcano are phreatomagmatic, and produce high eruption columns and catastrophic meltwater floods. Historically large eruptions have occurred at regular intervals about every 50 years.
Holocene eruptions at Katla volcano have been characterised by three types.
1) Basaltic explosive eruptions inside the caldera have occurred twice per century.
2) Silicic explosive eruptions in or near the caldera occur less frequently.
3) Large effusive basaltic fissure eruptions, producing volumes of 10 cubic km have occurred on two occasions during the Holocene.
Earthquakes at Katla Volcano
Katla has been seismically active for at least the past forty years, with two distinct areas predominating - Gooabunga rise in the west, and within Katla caldera in the centre. Earthquakes are more common during the autumn than during spring. There is almost no seismicity at the beginning of the year, and the earthquakes start to
occur in late summer. Seismicity indicates an intruding hot and acidic cryptodome, with a summit at a depth of 1.5 km.
1999 Eruption
In 1999 there was a glacial outburst at Katla volcano, possibly caused by a small eruption under the ice. The water flowed into Jökulsá á Sólheimasandi river. The source of the melting was a depression formed in the glacier surface. The flood was preceded by a burst of seismic tremor. Subglacial geothermal activity increased in the following weeks. Geothermal activity at Katla increased since 1999.
"Is there anything to see here with this little convection area at 7N-35W? Is north of the ITCZ.
Link"
Oh, boy. I am excited for hurricane season to start too, (so intense :) ) but it's only April! Of course everything is going to fizzle out. We have such prevailing westerlies right now!
LOL I knew it was just added. Just picking on you. There is one theory I read recently that thinks it may be magma flowing through chambers between the volcanoes. The thought being that a fissure has opened and magma is moving towards Katla. Don't remember where I read that though nor how reliable the information is.
The current eruption in Iceland is relatively minor. What is making this a problem is the NW winds in the Jet are driving the ash right into NW Europe. Normally the Northern Jet blows strong Westerly winds, blame it on an area of High pressure parked off the NW Atlantic.
Iceland
63.63 N, 19.62 W
summit elevation 1666 m
stratovolcano
Eyjafjallajokull volcano is located in southern Iceland under Eyjafjallajökull icecap. The southern end of the volcano was once part of the Atlantic coastline. The sea level has retreated some 5 km, leaving behind sheer cliffs with and many waterfalls such as Skógafoss.
Eyjafjallajokull volcano contains a 2.5 km wide caldera.
Eyjafjöll has been much less active than neighboring volcanoes. Since 1600's there have only been three eruptions at Eyjafjoll, while nearby Katla had 20 eruptions.
The 2010 eruption site has been named Fimmvörðuháls.
2010 Eruption
An earthquake swarm began under Eyjafjoll volcano in January 2010. There was a 40 mm inflation of the volcano. At the beginning of March 2010 over 3000 earthquakes were measured in a 24 hour period, with a maximum at magnitude 3.1.
An eruption began near the Eyjafjallajökull glacier on 21st March 2010. Locals reported lava fountaining and a lava flow from the glacier. Residents were evacuated. The eruption was limited to an area with little ice, so the threat of a flood was reduced.
17th April Update
A significant eruption was continuing at Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland. Ash emissions were reaching 28,000 ft. On 16th April there was a glacial outburst, and water level in Markarfljót rose by 50 centimeters at 6pm. There was another glacial outburst earlier in the day at Gígjökull glacial tongue. More glacial bursts are expected as the eruption continues.
I agree, GW is a fraud. But boy, the climate is certainly changing around the world.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/04/20/2877497.htm
eq australia
Link
Vestmannaeyjar; Last eruption 1973
Tindfjallajökull; Last eruption unknown
Torfajökull; last eruption 1477
Hekla; last eruption 2000
Snaefellsjökull; last eruption 200 A.D.
Katla is probably the number one risk right now, but don't rule Vestmannaeyjar out either.
And all we can do is get out of the way and watch. Oh, I forgot the really bad one, Meteors. That's a show we don't want to witness. That could be the last show we all see.
Goodnight everyone
i know, i couldn't think of anything smart alec to say! i can't even type correctly right now.
Link for the Australian Earthquake :o)
Link
That would be doe, ray, far, sew, tea, doe. LOL
"EYE-a-fyat-la-yu-goot" enough times, eventually, you'll get it.
Grothar has kindly informed me that it's actually pronounced "Aya-feeya-dla yur-kudl."
It's better to have tried and not quite gotten there than never to have tried at all imho. No one will know if you've pronounced it correctly anyway. Except maybe Grothar.
Go for it.
Australia had an Earthquake? What magnitude was it?
Forever humiliated! Link
5.2Mw, about 400 miles from a plate boundary, check out the article in the link below, there was some damage!
Jeff Masters in his last post talked about Global Warming. This is also a FREE blog. You can FREELY talk about things that you want. One moment we're talking about tropical disturbances, and then the next moment we're talking about Earthquakes! We can change the subject quite quickly, FWI...
Gee... the Earth seems to be rocking these past few days, and I bet we'll either have a volcanic eruption or an earthquake tomorrow. Many thanks to Bordonaro for the link!
Thanks for the excellent detail, Keeper.
OOOO aren't we the sensitive one. And you're correct, it was in his LAST post. But it doesn't really matter. So many people feel like they can just throw out whatever they feel whenever they want and insist on bringing up GW regardless of the topic. See it in other blogs here all the time. Some just can't give it a rest. The horse can only be so dead.
I'm writing the spelling corrections 100X on the blackboard!!! Hehehehe!
...but...if the horse is, in fact, dead...we can debate the effect of GW/CC on the rate and nature of decomposition on the body...
you have a point :)
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