Forecasting the volcanic ash plume of Iceland's volcano
The eruption of Iceland's volcano with the unpronounceable name, Eyjafjallajökull, has virtually ceased over the past few hours, with ash only reaching up to 6,000 feet (1800 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since midnight local time today. The relatively small amount of ash present at low altitudes will probably not be able to make it all the way to mainland Europe before falling to the surface and dissipating, since 6,000 feet is below the altitude that the strong winds of jet stream blow. Wednesday through Sunday, the volcano emitted a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The jet stream blows strongly at that altitude range, which allowed for efficient transport of the ash cloud to mainland Europe.
Figure 1. Lightning lights up the night sky in this photo of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption taken on April 16, 2010. Ash particles colliding together separate electric charge, much as ice particles in a thunderstorm do, leading to spectacular lightning displays. Image credit: Marco, Fulle, Stromboli Online.
Forecasts of the movement of the ash cloud are made using trajectory models, which have a number of uncertainties to consider. Firstly, the amount of ash ejected by the volcano is highly uncertain, since our measurements of this quantity are limited. Secondly, the models must compute how high the ash cloud will rise (plume rise), based on the best available measurements of atmospheric stability. Since upper air-observations are taken just twice daily by a very coarse network of balloon soundings, our knowledge of the stability is rather crude. Finally, the trajectory models use forecast winds from a global model such as the GFS model to predict where the plume may go. The forecast winds from this model do not capture much of the complicated structure of the wind field over Europe, leading to a rather fuzzy approximation of where the ash will go. Nevertheless, these models have in general done a respectable job forecasting where the ash from Eyjafjallajökull will go over the past few days.
Figure 2. Cross section of the atmosphere over time over Paliseau, France, on April 16, 2010, as observed using ground-based lidar. Image taken using a 532nm cross polarization NFOV telescope. Note how the ash layer sinks closer to the ground as time progresses, as gravity makes the ash sink to the ground. There may also be some atmospheric subsidence occurring (downward moving air due to large-scale atmospheric processes.) Image credit: Ray Hoff, World Meteorological Organization's Global Atmosphere Watch's Aerosol Lidar Network (GALION).
For the next few days, these models continue to indicate that northwest winds at the jet stream level will continue to affect Iceland. As a result, Spain, Portugal, and Greece will offer the best locations to fly from. The northwesterly winds are expected to continue for the remainder of the week, thanks to an upper-level trough of low pressure over northern Europe. On Saturday April 24, the ECMWF model predicts that the trough will slide eastwards, and a ridge of high pressure will build over Europe. This will bring upper-level winds out of the southwest to Iceland, directing any volcanic ash northwards over the North Pole. Thus for the remainder of this week, expect continued ash clouds over much of Europe if the volcano resumes significant eruptions. But by next Sunday, the ash over Europe should decline considerably. For the latest one-day forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne also has some excellent simulations from an atmospheric dispersion model of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption plume. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has 1-day forecasts showing a cross section of the atmosphere. NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) lets you perform your own model run using their HYSPLIT model, going out up to 48 hours, using the GFS model as input.
Figure 3. NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image of the eruption at 1:20 UTC on April 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Links
An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate. Finally, we need to be keeping an eye on earthquake activity at the dangerous Katla volcano next to Eyjafjallajökull. If that volcano blows, it could mean dwarf the headaches caused by Eyjafjallajökull.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 — Blog Index
i know, it was a big disappointment. it should have been better.
I'll answer your question when you stop typing in capitals. Thanks.
just like with any natural disaster, it is never the same.
Don't bother. I think his caps lock key is broken.
they are gonna freak out about people not being able to fly or go shopping to spend money.
not a problem...we have no money to go shopping with out here...
Feedback between deglaciation, volcanism, and atmospheric CO2
Peter Huybers and Charles Langmuir
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Abstract
An evaluation of the historical record of volcanic eruptions shows that subaerial volcanism increases globally by two to six times above background levels between 12 ka and 7 ka, during the last deglaciation. Increased volcanism occurs in deglaciating regions. Causal mechanisms could include an increase in magma production owing to the mantle decompression caused by ablation of glaciers and ice caps or a more general pacing of when eruptions occur by the glacial variability. A corollary is that ocean ridge volcanic production should decrease with the rising sea level during deglaciation, with the greatest effect at slow spreading ridges.
CO2 output from the increased subaerial volcanism appears large enough to influence glacial/interglacial CO2 variations. We estimate subaerial emissions during deglaciation to be between 1000 and 5000Gt of CO2 above the long term average background flux, assuming that emissions are proportional to the frequency of eruptions. After accounting for equilibration with the ocean, this additional CO2 flux is consistent in timing and magnitude with ice core observations of a 40-ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the second half of the last deglaciation. Estimated decreases in CO2 output from ocean ridge volcanoes compensate for only 20% of the increased subaerial flux. If such a large volcanic output of CO2 occurs, then volcanism forges a positive feedback between glacial variability and atmospheric CO2 concentrations: deglaciation increases volcanic eruptions, raises atmospheric CO2, and causes more deglaciation. Such a positive feedback may contribute to the rapid passage from glacial to interglacial periods. Conversely, waning volcanic activity during an interglacial could lead to a reduction in CO2 and the onset of an ice age. Whereas glacial/interglacial variations in CO2 are generally attributed to oceanic mechanisms, it is suggested that the vast carbon reservoirs associated with the solid Earth may also play an important role.
Link to complete paper here: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~phuybers/Doc/volc_ice.pdf
Link
They fail to mention that CO2 is our friend here.....as melting glaciers make the volcanoes less destructive, even if they do erupt more. That point about more eruptions is debatable too, like the story they came up with about melting ice wakening the Iceland volcanoes. A complete melting of the ice on Iceland, which is at maximum 500 meters thick, would only change the melting point of rock (when it changes to magma) by 0.5C.....which corresponds to a change in depth of about 20 meters based on the earth's normal geothermal gradient. To say that a change this small could stimulate excess volcanic activity is not that credible. And again, the net result of ice melting is it makes the volcanoes less destructive (i.e. not as dangerous to humans).
Besides, who says volcanoes always cause warming? The largest eruptions, which I'm sure they say cause the most warming, actually cause cooling by warming the stratosphere... (we're still talking about volcanoes in glaciated regions, not the tropics).
It's still going down. The subsurface water is continuing to cool, and we are not even yet seeing the full effects of the positive SOI burst on SSTs. Eventually it will come to a point where we see a dramatic and quick switch from warm anomalies to cool anomalies.
That last Kelvin wave had the strongest cooling upwelling we've seen in a while. cool pool building under the 3,4 region. Increasing winds from the south on the east end should help cool some of that heat from the last K-wave downwelling event that dramatically spiked the 1,2 region last week. Still waiting to see how strong the next Kelvin wave is..
In other words, there will be a HUGE building boom and property values will go UP tremendously as compared to increase over the decade prior to the BigOne.
"Did the earth move for ya, baby?"
Well it may be a while before we get the next one. The SOI is being very stubborn and refuses to go back down. SOI Daily Values
Notice the low exiting South Carolina 54 hours out:
Notice it 66 hours out looking a bit more impressive:
*If it does become something chances are it will become sub tropical.
The Northridge Quake in 1994, was 6.9Mw, off a previously unidentified fault formed because of the locked San Andreas Fault. There was major damage, 64 deaths, infrastructure failed in many areas. Billions in damage, that was not "The Big One". Link is to the Wiki article below:
Link
Pictures from the Northridge Quake:
Link
I am not sure you understand the possible magnitude of destruction that may take place in the LA Basin if a > 7.0-8.0 Mw quake took place.
Thousands of deaths, tens of thousands of injuries, all infrastructure rendered useless.
Imagine that you lived there, near the epicenter. How would you feel about the quake then?
lmao, they're already worrying about that with this spit of a volcano. Bottom line is the rich and wealthy have more to lose, and their hay days are coming to an end. Hope they enjoyed their millions cuz its gonna be down hill from here on out.
The GFS has been consistently showing tropical development in either the western Caribbean or eastern Pacific in 13-16 days. It has been swinging back and forth on either side of central America. This simply indicates that the season is approaching, and the reason for the development on the model is the GFS is forecasting an upper equatorial ridge to develop over the western Caribbean and provide a low-shear environment during that time-frame. We shall have to see what the MJO is like during that period.
Think of 9/11 but on a 30 mile radius. not a few blocks
This loop of the subsurface is a few days old but shows what both of you are talking about those cool waters how they are expanding. Do you know when and how strong the next kevin wave will move from west to east?
It's hard to say when, but it should be soon, as the SOI doesn't usually go up and then just stay there without reacting downward again. The SOI likes to do its work in a series of ups and downs. However, the trend is now clearly up, and the next SOI negative burst will not be as negative as the last one, which means the next Kelvin wave will be weaker. This last Kelvin wave was likely the last one that will really stall the El Nino's demise. Nino 3.4 is steadily falling now. It was Nino 1, 2, and 3 that warmed a bit with this last wave, but they will begin to cool again as well once the last of the warm subsurface water surfaces and cooler water starts to upwell from below. This may take a bit more time though. The first neutral or cool anomalies may show up in Nino 3.4 first.
Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Animation
Madden-Julian Oscillation.
I don't think Harvard just came up with a story about Iceland to make a point. It's not the change in Temperature it's the sudden unburdening of weight from the land as the heavy ice melts, the release of pressure from the ice holding it down. GRACE has been documenting some huge surface shifts lately as the melt continues. I read part of the full length interesting stuff. Cooling from volcanoes are usually a few year event but the CO2 can cause further warming down the road, hence the positive feedback. Added sea rise slumbering more underwater volcanoes does help reduce ocean warming & added CO2 but I think another point was ones in the Arctic would calm after the melt was done & stabilized, eventually helping to swing back toward cool again.
On the whole ENSO melt thought.. That El Nino the causer of cloud seeding really helped put a bigger than lately sheet of really thin ice up there, if ENSO dives to La Nina, the clouds will disappear & with the record heat in the air from the dying El Nino we should set an impressive sea ice melt record.
I like that they have an Alaskan sector now after they updated their site. And as that image shows I'm finally in the sunshine again! After 4 days of slushy rain and snow the front has finally dissipated enough that the mountains are downsloping us into clear skies :)
Oh man I want that...lol.
What do you mean Oz? And I think you quoted the wrong post of mine lol, unless I'm misunderstanding you.
Link
How about this one?
Wind shear anomalies:
Viewing: 101 - 151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 — Blog Index