Forecasting the volcanic ash plume of Iceland's volcano
The eruption of Iceland's volcano with the unpronounceable name, Eyjafjallajökull, has virtually ceased over the past few hours, with ash only reaching up to 6,000 feet (1800 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since midnight local time today. The relatively small amount of ash present at low altitudes will probably not be able to make it all the way to mainland Europe before falling to the surface and dissipating, since 6,000 feet is below the altitude that the strong winds of jet stream blow. Wednesday through Sunday, the volcano emitted a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The jet stream blows strongly at that altitude range, which allowed for efficient transport of the ash cloud to mainland Europe.
Figure 1. Lightning lights up the night sky in this photo of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption taken on April 16, 2010. Ash particles colliding together separate electric charge, much as ice particles in a thunderstorm do, leading to spectacular lightning displays. Image credit: Marco, Fulle, Stromboli Online.
Forecasts of the movement of the ash cloud are made using trajectory models, which have a number of uncertainties to consider. Firstly, the amount of ash ejected by the volcano is highly uncertain, since our measurements of this quantity are limited. Secondly, the models must compute how high the ash cloud will rise (plume rise), based on the best available measurements of atmospheric stability. Since upper air-observations are taken just twice daily by a very coarse network of balloon soundings, our knowledge of the stability is rather crude. Finally, the trajectory models use forecast winds from a global model such as the GFS model to predict where the plume may go. The forecast winds from this model do not capture much of the complicated structure of the wind field over Europe, leading to a rather fuzzy approximation of where the ash will go. Nevertheless, these models have in general done a respectable job forecasting where the ash from Eyjafjallajökull will go over the past few days.
Figure 2. Cross section of the atmosphere over time over Paliseau, France, on April 16, 2010, as observed using ground-based lidar. Image taken using a 532nm cross polarization NFOV telescope. Note how the ash layer sinks closer to the ground as time progresses, as gravity makes the ash sink to the ground. There may also be some atmospheric subsidence occurring (downward moving air due to large-scale atmospheric processes.) Image credit: Ray Hoff, World Meteorological Organization's Global Atmosphere Watch's Aerosol Lidar Network (GALION).
For the next few days, these models continue to indicate that northwest winds at the jet stream level will continue to affect Iceland. As a result, Spain, Portugal, and Greece will offer the best locations to fly from. The northwesterly winds are expected to continue for the remainder of the week, thanks to an upper-level trough of low pressure over northern Europe. On Saturday April 24, the ECMWF model predicts that the trough will slide eastwards, and a ridge of high pressure will build over Europe. This will bring upper-level winds out of the southwest to Iceland, directing any volcanic ash northwards over the North Pole. Thus for the remainder of this week, expect continued ash clouds over much of Europe if the volcano resumes significant eruptions. But by next Sunday, the ash over Europe should decline considerably. For the latest one-day forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne also has some excellent simulations from an atmospheric dispersion model of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption plume. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has 1-day forecasts showing a cross section of the atmosphere. NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) lets you perform your own model run using their HYSPLIT model, going out up to 48 hours, using the GFS model as input.
Figure 3. NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image of the eruption at 1:20 UTC on April 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Links
An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate. Finally, we need to be keeping an eye on earthquake activity at the dangerous Katla volcano next to Eyjafjallajökull. If that volcano blows, it could mean dwarf the headaches caused by Eyjafjallajökull.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Definitely a beautiful shot.
Morning Bord. Iceland bandwidth is not exactly the most robust in the world.
Able to connect to http://www.mulakot.net/myndavelar.html again. Think the servers at Mila are just overwhelmed.
Like WW said too, it looks likes something still going on underneath it all.
Is that Katla?
My sister is among the slim minority hoping her flight back to England Saturday is postponed. Of course, she's not camping out in an airport or paying exhorbitant hotel fees, either.
twhcracker.. I don't think the ash cloud has been over very much of Iceland. The way the winds have been pushing it, and the location of the cloud have pretty much taken it offshore.
Link
Most of the ash from the eruption is being blown southward, away from Iceland.
When the winds shift to the SW later in the week in Iceland, then there will be some problems there. Thankfully, it is a sparsely populated country.
from Reuters yesterday
Ash from the volcano drifted southeast towards the European continent, sparing the capital Reykjavik and other more populated centres but forcing farmers and their livestock indoors as a blanket of ash fell on the surrounding areas.
"We are all doing our utmost to make sure that the farming community in this area survives this disaster," Icelandic President Olafur Grimsson told Reuters Television.
Many farmers remained to tend their livestock and some, assisted by rescue squads, were on rooftops sweeping off the accumulated ash to prevent roofs from caving in. There were no disruptions to electricity or water supplies in the area.
There had been an official apology by the admins some days ago, that they would limit access for people outside from Iceland in favor to the inhabitants, if traffic increases to much. The icelanders are more directly dependend to see what their volcano is doing than foreigners all over the world.
Thanks a lot Dr. Masters for these great infos once again.
Hi barbara. Now that you mention it I do remember seeing that.
Hi, Dan!
Very soon (in ten minutes, to be correct) there will be more traffic over our heads again. Hopefully safe!
Lufthansa gets permission to fly passengers home
(AP) – 1 hour ago
BERLIN — Germany's aviation authority says it has granted Lufthansa permission to fly 50 planes back to Germany with about 15,000 passengers aboard.
Spokeswoman Cornelia Cramer said Monday that other airlines such as Air Berlin also have sought similar permission.
Honestly I would be a little nervous about taking those flights. Let someone else go first :)
That's good new for sure! I hope that all flights arrive safely with no problems.
Hi, Bordo. For sure, I don't want to meet a jet in my living room either.
If I remember correctly, Mainz is in one of the glide paths. Keep an ear to the sky. ;>)
I've just opened the window, lol.
Planes usually reach us in a cycle of two minutes or maybe less.
A NASA balloon the size of the Melbourne Cricket Ground has landed near Longreach in outback Queensland.
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
Scientists launched the balloon last week from the Australian Defence Force Academy's (ADFA) Alice Springs base in the Northern Territory.
It travelled up to 40 kilometres into the atmosphere to gather data about the universe before coming down in a field south of Longreach in western Queensland over the weekend.
Launch director Ravi Sood said anyone who saw the massive balloon coming down might have thought it was a UFO.
When fully inflated, it's 1.3 million cubic metres in volume - or the size of the MCG.
``The balloon was simply a vehicle to take two tonnes of instruments to the top of the atmosphere,'' said Associate Professor Sood, from the University of NSW's School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences located at ADFA's Alice Springs base.
``There were three different instruments, all from the United States, that look for X-rays and gamma-rays emitted from certain stars and galaxies.
``Sometimes when a star explodes it emits large amounts of X-rays and gamma-rays which can tell us about the nature of these objects.''
He said the balloon came down without incident and the exercise was a success.
Britain to lift flight ban at 4pm AEST
* From: AFP
* April 20, 2010 1:29Am
BRITAIN will begin lifting a flight ban at 4pm AEDT today.
Authorities said that they would reopen skies over Scotland and possibly airspace further south later.
Latest forecasts suggest a "continuously improving situation" as the volcano in Iceland has stopped producing ash at altitudes which pose a risk to aircraft in British airspace, said the National Air Traffic Services (NATS).
"The volcanic eruption has reduced and the volcano is not currently emitting ash to altitudes that will affect the UK," said the NATS latest update on the ash cloud which has grounded flights across Europe for five days.
"Assuming there are no further significant ash emissions we are now looking at a continuously improving situation," it added.
Based on the latest weather forecasts, NATS says a flight ban should remain in place until 7am GMT today, after which the airspace over Scotland will be opened.
After that any decisions would be based on updated weather information from the Met Office.
"This is a dynamic and changing situation and is therefore difficult to forecast," it said.
"However, the latest Met Office advice is that the contaminated area will continue to move south with the possibility that restrictions to airspace above England and Wales, including the London area, may be lifted later".
The update came ahead of talks between European Union transport ministers on their response to the volcanic ash cloud, which has paralysed air traffic in much of Europe and led to transport chaos across the continent.
QUEENSLAND'S tourism industry could be losing up to $3.4million a day as volcanic ash covering much of Europe continues to ground planes and wreak havoc on international freight and travel routes.
Commerce Queensland said yesterday that figure was for the British and continental European markets alone.
Such losses could push some small businesses to the wall.
As Europe's civil aviation authorities began talks overnight to pave the way for airports to reopen, a further five Qantas flights into Europe were cancelled, taking the tally to 59 since Wednesday's eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjoell volcano.
Commerce Queensland president David Goodwin said the state's economy could struggle if regular flights were not reinstated soon.
"The airline industry is certainly feeling a big impact, and the tourism operators who were expecting arrivals from Europe will be feeling it fairly shortly," he said.
"But the good news is it won't be one of those things that is going to hang around forever."
He said that every year more than 622,000 European visitors and 189,000 British travellers arrived in Queensland to spend a combined $1.23billion.
Mr Goodwin said it was not yet possible to put a cost on the potential impacts on manufacturers and large importers relying on freight from Europe and Britain.
Queensland Tourism Industry Council chief executive officer Daniel Gschwind said the flight delays could affect confidence in long-haul travel.
"Every day on average 2500 people arrive in Australia from Europe," he said.
"It is obviously going to have a very significant impact on all business that deals with international business – at worst they lose the business, at best they will arrive later."
" If people in Europe conclude it is not worth the risk of travelling far away from home, it will have a dampening effect on consumer confidence when it comes to long-haul travel."
The Brisbane Airport Corporation estimates about 1700 people a day are being affected by the problem, totalling 8500 so far.
About 15 per cent of international passenger movements out of Brisbane are to Europe.
Australia Post said yesterday that mail sent to Europe before April 13 had been delivered. Other items would be stored.
"Any mail that has not been airlifted is being securely stored," a spokeswoman said.
A spokesman for freight giant DHL said yesterday there was a three to five-day delay on freight to and from Europe. Other regions were unaffected.
Qantas said yesterday that despite some test flights by other airlines, it was unsure when full services would resume. The airline was forced to cancel another five outbound flights and five inbound flights from stop-over destinations.
A spokeswoman said customers booked on affected flights should not go to the airport, but would be transferred to the next scheduled service or offered a refund.
"Customers in Singapore, Hong Kong and Bangkok who have revised their travel plans to Europe and wish to return to Australia will be booked on the next available return services at no cost," she said.
"The situation was "likely to continue for some days."
Marco, Fulle, Stromboli Online
No, we don't want that to happen! Looking better for the folks across "The Pond", in Europe.
Here in Sydney, normally there are flights that go over my place at 10:30pm and 10:45pm before the airport closes at 11pm. Those two flights have not gone over since Thursday night. It's good to have peace and quiet at that time of night, even for a few days.
Goodnight all
O.K. First condensation trail back in the sky, but in a rather strange direction. They are flying in a different way than usual. Back to work. Maybe see you later on.
Good night, Aussie. Always appreciate the news from down under.
For those who have the question, "What is the PDO"? An explanation in the link below:
Link
Sleep well, I gather it's about 2:37AM your local time Aussie!
WEST Full Disk
For the record, I consider the 2005 map to look much worse than our current one, as the anomalies were perfectly straight across the MDR, instead of slanting far to the NE up the African coast and putting cool water off the SE US like this year. The gulf was also warmer in 2005. Overall it was a much scarier look then than it is now, but this year is also very concerning, especially since 2005 has the most similar presentation.
March 2010 MSU TLT Anomalies:
March 2005 MSU TLT Anomalies:
You're welcome, be blessed in all you do, hope to see you around the blog, peace!
Thanks for serving Alex..
Go Navy, beat Army.. again!
Good luck Alex :) Hope to see you around again sometime.
Take care out there and good luck.
T-depth anomaly
1958 is very similar so far.
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