Polish president dies in plane crash during heavy fog

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on April 10, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Always obey your air traffic controllers. That's the cardinal rule of of aviation, and one apparently violated by the pilot of the aircraft carrying the Polish president and dozens of the country's top political and military leaders, which crashed in heavy fog this morning near Smolensk, Russia. All 96 people aboard perished. According to the New York Times, air traffic controllers had recommended the president's jet land in nearby Minsk because of bad visibility, but the crew decided to land anyway. The Polish news channel TVN24 reported that moments before the crash, air traffic controllers had refused a Russian military aircraft permission to land, but that they could not refuse permission to the Polish plane. Russian media reported that the airplane's crew made several attempts to land before a wing hit the treetops and the plane crashed about half a mile from the runway.


Figure 1. a large patch of fog covers the Russian city of Smolensk and regions to the east in this visible light image captured by NASA's Terra satellite between 08:00 - 11:15 UTC Saturday, April 10, 2010. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System, visualized using Google Earth.

At 10 am local time, near the time of the crash, the Smolensk airport reported heavy fog with visibility 0.5 km (3/10 of a mile). As seen in the satellite image taken near this time (Figure 1), a large bank of fog covered Smolensk and neighboring regions of Russia and Belarus.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 128 - 78

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

ya copy and paste image url in the image pop up you can make in the post your comments area
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Thanks again how do you put maps and links on the website?

Go here
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and last but not least the sea level pressure and winds map

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Thanks again how do you put maps and links on the website?
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572


here is a shear map for ya as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Well i stand corrected thanks for the map.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
*Post Removed*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
The MDR is running way abouve normal this year there will probably be some cape verde storms. but of course theres sal and wind shear to look at so the temps dont mean much really if you have a lot of dust and wind shear.


Depends on where the SAL is. In 2005 there was a lot, but at higher latitudes. This gave a greater chance of storms further South to form. There are many different dynamics which will have to be watched over the next season. Interesting to be sure. Perhaps this may be a learning year with all these new elements in the equation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
The MDR is running way abouve normal this year there will probably be some cape verde storms. but of course theres sal and wind shear to look at so the temps dont mean much really if you have a lot of dust and wind shear.
not much sal over tropical south atlantic at all

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting Drakoen:
Just checked the Caribbean Buoys from NDBC and they are showing more 28C around the Cayman islands and east of Honduras in the central Caribbean than the AOML maps are.


atmoaggie and I are keeping track of all the buoys. I cannot speak for atmoaggie, but I would agree with you. Don't really know why some of the graphic readings are different than the "raw" (I hate that word) data.

Although if atmoaggie were on now, he would probably disagree just to break the monotony. (Just kidding atmoaggie, we all enjoy your technical input.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The MDR is running way abouve normal this year there will probably be some cape verde storms. but of course theres sal and wind shear to look at so the temps dont mean much really if you have a lot of dust and wind shear.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
years 2005 and 2010 compare maps sst's tropical atlantic
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

The map I posted was from yesterday, so that must be why.


Even more reason to discredit the AOML, water temps yesterday were 28C.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Just checked the Caribbean Buoys from NDBC and they are showing more 28C around the Cayman islands and east of Honduras in the central Caribbean than the AOML maps are.

The map I posted was from yesterday, so that must be why.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


compare maps of 09 / 10 tropical atlantic sst maps
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Just checked the Caribbean Buoys from NDBC and they are showing more 28C around the Cayman islands and east of Honduras in the central Caribbean than the AOML maps are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey grothar i still remember the days when the weather channel actually talked about the weather but that was once upon a time.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
26 degree isotherm depth from April 9,2009:


26 degree isotherm depth from April 9,2010


Looks deeper compared to last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The caribean is still way too hot for this time of year.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
I was shocked when I turned on TWC and saw "Joe versus the Volcano." Any wonder they are all jumping ship from that channel. Shame.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
here is a close up of carb and gulf now and this time last year

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting aspectre:
19 Stormchaser2007 "The Caribbean has substantially cooled over the past 4 days"

Considering that new charts weren't posted between the 5th and the 9th, I'd suspect most of the apparent cooling is due to recalibration of data rather than a substantive change in the new raw data itself.

Excluding the Gulf of Mexico and the area north of Cuba, SeaSurfaceTemperatures and the depth of hurricane-supporting water temperatures (26+degreesCelsius) remain absurdly high for April, more in keeping with midsummer. Scary hot.
Prediction:
If there is not an early start to the Atlantic TropicalStorm Season (ie before May, which may be why StormW has restarted his tropical weather-watch blog unexpectably early this year) along with a high rate of hurricane generation thereafter, then 2010 will host the first unequivocal Category6 Atlantic hurricane.
By unequivocal Cat.6, I mean maximum sustained winds exceeding 186mph (~162knots/~300kph) as measured across two or more measuring periods. Which is, as far as I am aware, territory entered only by TyphhoonTip (though briefly flirted with by HurricaneWilma).
Like I said, scary.


I was thinking the exact same thing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
latest ssts as of 8 am this morning

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

USGS.GOV update, the quake near the USVI was rated 4.4 Mw. Shake reports show the quake was felt as "light shaking".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
19 Stormchaser2007 "The Caribbean has substantially cooled over the past 4 days"

Considering that new charts weren't posted between the 5th and the 9th, I'd suspect most of the apparent cooling is due to recalibration of data rather than a substantive change in the new raw data itself.

Excluding the Gulf of Mexico and the area north of Cuba, SeaSurfaceTemperatures and the depth of hurricane-supporting water temperatures (26degreesCelsius and above) remain absurdly high for April, more in keeping with midsummer. Scary hot.
Prediction:
If there is not an early start to the Atlantic TropicalStorm Season (ie before May, which may be why StormW has restarted his tropical weather-watch blog unexpectably early this year) along with a high rate of hurricane generation thereafter, then 2010 will host the first unequivocal Category6 Atlantic hurricane.
By unequivocal Cat.6, I mean maximum sustained winds exceeding 186mph (~162knots/~300kph) as measured across two or more consecutive measuring periods. Which is, as far as I am aware, territory entered only by TyphoonTip (though the border was flirted with by HurricaneWilma).
Like I said, scary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Its even more fun to read their forecasts for other seasons.

http://wxresearch.org/press/

10 named storms for 2005, 7 for 2007, and 11 for 2008.


yea they seem pretty clueless at times
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That's very funny cyberteddy that's what probably happened lol.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Preliminary USGS has the quake near the USVI at 4.6Mw, they state there will be an update within 15 min.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That's right floridatigers all the weather channel is now is epic conditions and cantore stories its truly sad that a great channel fell so far.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
What are these people looking at that tells them there will only be 8 storms this year.


Must be stormkats weather office. (the down casting handle of stormtop)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Steve Lyons is now at San Angelo? Good for him, bad for TWC. I have no reason now to ever watch TWC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What are these people looking at that tells them there will only be 8 storms this year.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Its even more fun to read their forecasts for other seasons.

http://wxresearch.org/press/

10 named storms for 2005, 7 for 2007, and 11 for 2008.


Well, guess we will just had to +7 to their forecasts to be accurate.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Its even more fun to read their forecasts for other seasons.

http://wxresearch.org/press/

10 named storms for 2005, 7 for 2007, and 11 for 2008.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadofan:
fsumet - what's Lyons doing taking an inland job? I don't get it? I agree that it is legit.


Well, he worked for Southern Region Headquarters in Fort Worth for a few years back in the day and he was a professor of some kind back at Texas A&M too, so that might have something to do with it. Besides that I don't know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadofan:


If you believe internet rumors, Dr. Rick Knabb from the National Hurricane Center will be taking Lyons' spot at TWC.


Next in line is Jim. Rick knabb is the director of operations at the central pacific hurricane center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


good God...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Weather Research Center issued its hurricane forecast.

8 named storms, 5 hurricanes.

http://wxresearch.org/press/2010huroutlook.pdf

Not sure how to post links. Seems like wunderground has changed some since last year.


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
fsumet - what's Lyons doing taking an inland job? I don't get it? I agree that it is legit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weather Research Center issued its hurricane forecast.

8 named storms, 5 hurricanes.

http://wxresearch.org/press/2010huroutlook.pdf

Not sure how to post links. Seems like wunderground has changed some since last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting tornadofan:


If you believe internet rumors, Dr. Rick Knabb from the National Hurricane Center will be taking Lyons' spot at TWC.


I don't know anything about that, but the first one isn't a rumor. It was known a couple days ago that he was taking the NWS MIC job at San Angelo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fsumet:
Steve Lyons is going to be the MIC at San Angelo


If you believe internet rumors, Dr. Rick Knabb from the National Hurricane Center will be taking Lyons' spot at TWC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Caribbean has cooled in only a few days because of the moderate to strong trade winds that are blowing at this time due to the positive NAO and the Colombian low.

April 1



April 9

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At least we are getting some rain in the last week after a very dry March . So far we got 1.3 inches
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL! Storm you will do a lot better than anybody on the weather channel.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Really dry around the Cayman and Jamaica region also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 128 - 78

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.