Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on April 05, 2010

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Could global warming increase wind shear over the Atlantic, potentially leading to a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes? There is a growing consensus among hurricane scientists that this is indeed quite possible. Two recent studies, by Zhao et al. (2009), "Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM", and by Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", found that global warming might increase wind shear over the Atlantic by the end of the century, resulting in a decrease in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. For example, the second study took 18 relatively coarse (>60 km grid size) models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate report, and "downscaled" them using a higher-resolution (18 km grid size) model called ZETAC that was able to successfully simulate the frequencies of hurricanes over the past 50 years. When the 18 km ZETAC model was driven using the climate conditions we expect in 2100, as output by the 18 IPCC models, the authors found that a reduction of Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century resulted. An important reason that their model predicted a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.


Figure 1. Top: predicted change by 2100 in wind shear (in meters per second per degree C of warming--multiply by two to get mph) as predicted by summing the predictions of 18 climate models. Bottom: The number of models that predict the effect shown in the top image. The dots show the locations where tropical storms formed between 1981-2005. The box indicates a region of frequent hurricane formation where wind shear is not predicted to change much. Image credit: Geophysical Research Letters, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", by Vecchi and Soden, 2007.

Since the Knutson et al. study using the 18 km resolution ZETAC model was not detailed enough to look at what might happen to major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes, a new study using a higher resolution model was needed. This was done by a team of modelers led by Dr. Morris Bender of NOAA's GFDL laboratory, who published their results in Science in February. The authors used the GFDL hurricane model--the model that has been our best-performing operation hurricane track forecasting model over the past five years--to perform their study. The GFDL hurricane model runs at a resolution of 9 km, which is detailed enough to make accurate simulations of major hurricanes. The researchers did a double downscaling study, where they first took the forecast atmospheric and oceanic conditions at generated by the coarse (>60 km grid) IPCC models, used these data to initialize the finer resolution 18 km ZETAC model, then used the output from the ZETAC model to initialize the high-resolution GFDL hurricane model. The final results of this "double downscaling" study suggest that although the total number of hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, we should expect an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms in the Atlantic. This trend should not be clearly detectable until about 60 years from now, given a scenario in which CO2 doubles by 2100. The authors say that their model predicts that there should already have been a 20% increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms since the 1940s, given the approximate 0.5°C warming of the tropical Atlantic during that period. This trend is too small to be detectable, given the high natural variability and the difficulty we've had accurately measuring the exact strength of intense hurricanes before the 1980s.The region of the Atlantic expected to see the greatest increase in Category 4 and 5 storms by the year 2100 is over the Bahama Islands (Figure 2), since wind shear is not expected to increase in this region, and sea surface temperatures and atmospheric instability are expected to increase there.

The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors compute, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. Over the past century, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to the Science paper by Bender et al. (2010).

Commentary
These results seem reasonable, since the models in question have been successfully been able to simulate the behavior of hurricanes over the past 50 years. However, the uncertainties are high and lot more research needs to be done before we can be confident of the results. Not all of the IPCC models predict an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic by 2100, so the increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could be much greater. Also, the GFDL model was observed to under-predict the strength of intense hurricanes in the current climate, so it may not be creating enough Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the future climate of 2100. On the other hand, IPCC models such as the UKMO-HadCM3 predict a very large increase in wind shear, leading to a drastic reduction in all hurricanes in the Atlantic by 2100, including Category 4 and 5 storms. So Category 4 and 5 hurricane frequency could easily be much greater or much less than the 81% increase by 2100 found by Bender et al.

The estimates of a 30% increase in hurricane damages by 2100 may be considerably too low, since this estimate assumes that sea level rise will continue at the same pace as was observed in the 20th century. Sea level rise has accelerated since the 1990s, and it is likely that this century we will see much more than than the 7 inches of global sea level rise that was observed last century. Higher sea level rise rates will sharply increase the damages due to storm surge, which account for a large amount of the damage from intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that while a 30% in hurricane damage by the end of the century is significant, this will not be the main reason hurricane damages will increase this century. Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. By 2015, the authors expect the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage. This number would increase to $600 billion by 2025 (though I think it is likely that the recent recession may delay this damage total a few years into the future.) It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must.

The authors of the GFDL hurricane model study have put together a nice web page with links to the paper and some detailed non-technical explanations of the paper.

References
Bender et al., 2010, "Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes", Science, 22 January 2010: Vol. 327. no. 5964, pp. 454 - 458 DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568.

Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison, 2006, "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing", Nature, 441(7089), 73-76.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting presslord:
yea...I'm just about done with IE...

I downloaded it as an experiment about 3 wks ago, and I got rid of IE 8 the next day.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting WaterWitch11:


hot towers cause increased wind?

Yes, similar to the mini-vortices of a tornado, translating higher winds to the surface!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
If you notice in my post I said New Orleans did not experience "true" storm surge. I'm not denying they experienced storm surge, I'm just saying New Orleans experienced category one hurricane conditions, with category two gusts. If the levees didn't fail, the damage in Mississippi would have been the big story.
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yea...I'm just about done with IE...
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Quoting presslord:
Bord was right three times?!?!?!???!?!?!?!?!


Sorry, Firefox 3.6.2 is SO much better than IE8, however, it has its bugs too :o)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


Andrew had "hot, hot towers" in his eyewall, producing wind gusts estimated at 200+ MPH. It appears many severe hurricanes have them. Even Hurricane Ike, a strong CAT 2 has winds of over 130MPH several hundred feet above the ground. Thankfully, not much of that translated to the surface!


hot towers cause increased wind?
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1650
. The weakening trend was short-lived and Ivan re-strengthened to category 5 for its third and final time when it was about 80 n mi west of Grand Cayman Island. Although Ivan was weakening while the center passed south of Grand Cayman on 12 September, the hurricane still brought sustained winds just below category 5 strength (Table 3) to the island. This resulted in widespread wind damage, and a storm surge that completely over swept the island except for the extreme northeastern portion.I was really surprised after this that we didn't have any deaths from drowning. I live on the southeastern corner of the island and many people had to be rescued from their roof. I wonder if us being basically flat and small helped to prevent long term flooding resulting in drowning deaths. Any opinions on this are appreciated.
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Bord was right three times?!?!?!???!?!?!?!?!
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Quoting PcolaDan:
You're right Bord.
You're right Bord.
You're right Bord.

:)

Sorry for the double post! Blame it on Firefox 3.6.2!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
You're right Bord.
You're right Bord.
You're right Bord.

:)
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Sorry, I stepped away from my computer. I was referring to the fact that New Orleans was flooded due to an engineering failure and not because of Katrina's storm surge. From Herbert Saffir and Robert Simpson:

Finally, in view of frequent references to the impact of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, Louisiana, the following remarks are appropriate. After a personal early survey of damage and flooding in New Orleans conducted by the second author of this comment, no evidence was observed of excessive wind damage that should not have been expected from a lower category-3 hurricane or less, other than that which occurred in unique combination with wind-driven flooding. Some published reports indicated the highest wind speeds recorded in New Orleans were less than 100 mph. Moreover, this survey concluded that while Lake Ponchartrain water levels were
elevated as an indirect result of storm surge, the flooding in New Orleans would have been minimal had the levees not been breached, allegedly due to faulty design or construction. There was minimum overtopping of levees. Therefore, flooding in the city would have been restricted to rain accumulations with little or no associated water damage. Storm surge, in the classical sense, did not occur in New Orleans. There are many misconceptions by the public as to the Hurricane Katrina disaster, but this uniquely combined impact of winds and flooding still succeeded in generating one of our greatest national disasters. One that probably should be attributed more to human failure than to natural causes.


The link isn't working so here's the URL: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Files/Simpson_Saffir.pdf
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Quoting presslord:



nice explanation


Thank you. I can't begin to tell you how much that hurt my brain though. Time for a beer. ;)
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SPC Preliminary Storm Reports, another CRAZY day!!

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Sorry folks, my computer has gone "temporarily insane"!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting FloridaTigers:


No it isn't. Hurricane Andrew was Category 5 conditions well inland around the eyewall. Surge isn't the only thing in a storm.


Andrew had "hot, hot towers" in his eyewall, producing wind gusts estimated at 200+ MPH. It appears many severe hurricanes have them. Even Hurricane Ike, a strong CAT 2 has winds of over 130MPH several hundred feet above the ground. Thankfully, not much of that translated to the surface!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1840. xcool
Katrina what over my house .bad girl.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting PcolaDan:


Surge was one cause of the flooding, Surge plugged the outflow of water from lakes, canals and rivers, thus allowing the water levels to go up significantly. It also pushed water into these systems (surge). Combine that with a strong north wind off Lake Pontchartrain and failing levees and you have major disaster. A bit of a semantics thing. Generally surge is thought of as waves coming off the Gulf, Atlantic or Caribbean and being pushed ashore with force. This water then directly pushes structures over vs the relatively slow infiltration from rising water. Look at pictures from MS and then New Orleans. MS building were gone, New Orleans, for the most part, still intact and underwater.



nice explanation
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1838. Patrap
NOAA Katrina Base Map

To be sure,K left 4 ft of water on my Mothers parents Grave in Nola in Greenwood Cemetery,and 22 ft of water on my Fathers parents grave in Waveland on the Beach Side of the RR Tracks.







At least 1,836people died,but best estimates range as High as 2300.....as of Dec 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting BahaHurican:
How can one say that NOLA didn't experience the surge? Wasn't it the surge that brought the levee walls down? or am I remembering wrong now?


Surge was one cause of the flooding, Surge plugged the outflow of water from lakes, canals and rivers, thus allowing the water levels to go up significantly. It also pushed water into these systems (surge). Combine that with a strong north wind off Lake Pontchartrain and failing levees and you have major disaster. A bit of a semantics thing. Generally surge is thought of as waves coming off the Gulf, Atlantic or Caribbean and being pushed ashore with force. This water then directly pushes structures over vs the relatively slow infiltration from rising water. Look at pictures from MS and then New Orleans. MS building were gone, New Orleans, for the most part, still intact and underwater.
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I think more folks die after the storm than there are casualties due to wind.
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Surge is the killer. Not the wind. ** And of coarse the dummies that run their generators in their living room.
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1834. xcool
I am not leave for no hurricanes callme crazy .....
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Patrap:
Musta been the FOX version that poster saw.





That's Cindy... cheater
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Link

Take a minute to check out this skiff if you have not already seen it... there's your CAT 5 intercept vehicle, built right here on the Gulf Coast.
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1830. Levi32
This is the ECMWF forecasted MSLP for the July-August-September period:



...And these are the MSLP anomalies for the July-August-September period of all very active hurricane seasons (I defined "very active" as greater than 1 standard deviation above normal number of named storms, which is 15 or more storms based on 1948-2009 average):



It doesn't get any more similar than that. Notice all but one of these very active years occurred after 1995, when the AMO went warm.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
1829. xcool
very interesting for the hurricane season! yayyyy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1828. Patrap
Cindy and Dennis Both impacted the Gulf Coast to a degree..way before K.

But the lesser known ones are dwarfed by the CV ones.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
supposed to get down to 32 tonight
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1826. xcool
Link


joe video
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1825. Patrap
Musta been the FOX version that poster saw.

When this One Hit in the First week July 2005,most couldnt spell "Levee".

Hurricane Cindy,Cat-1,..upgraded from TS post Season



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
How can one say that NOLA didn't experience the surge? Wasn't it the surge that brought the levee walls down? or am I remembering wrong now?
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Just to give another perspective:

3/8000 = 3000/8000000

The population of New Providence at the time was about 250,000. Andrew passed within 50 miles of the island. As unprepared as many Nassau residents were (this was the first major hurricane to strike the island chain in many, many years) a track 30 miles further south would have resulted in serious disaster. We were very fortunate, even blessed here.

Wonder if it's possible to get a "SLOSH" map series with a hypothetical track like Andrew's, only further south....
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1822. Patrap
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
The wind related deaths in Andrew came from houses not built up to code, mostly in Naranja Lakes. The roofs blew off and metal beams and other debris were dropped inside killing those unprotected. My house went through the northern eyewall, and held up pretty well for the most part. As long as your house is built up to a strong code, it can take a surprising amount of wind damage. However, no house can protect you from storm surge. New Orleans did not experience true storm surge from Katrina. Mississippi did.


What reality your living..?




www.nola.com/katrina/graphics/flashflood.swf

In October 2005, after the failures of the federally designed and built levees in Greater New Orleans, Lt Gen Carl Strock P.E.,M.ASCE, commander of the US Army Corps of Engineers requested that ASCE create an expert review panel (ERP) to peer review the Corps-sponsored Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET), the body commissioned by the Corps to assess the performance of the hurricane protection system in metro New Orleans. Lawrence Roth P.E.,F.ASCE, Deputy Executive Director of the ASCE led the ERP development, served as the panel's Chief of Staff and facilitated the panel's interaction with IPET.[10] The role of the ERP - composed of 14 specialists who possess a range of technical expertise - was to provide an independent technical review of the IPET's activities and findings. Roth stated at a National Research Council meeting in New Orleans, that "an independent review panel" such as the ERP "ensure[s] that the outcome is a robust, credible and defensible performance evaluation."[11] All members of the ERP panel received Outstanding Civilian Service Medals from Lt. Gen Strock on February 12, 2007.[10] The ERP's findings were released three months later on June 1, 2007 in a report entitled The New Orleans Hurricane Protection System: What Went Wrong and Why.[12][13]

Shortly after the release of the ERP's findings, ASCE administration was criticized by The Times-Picayune for an apparent attempt to minimize and understate the role of the Army Corps in the flooding. The Times-Picayune editorial called attention to a press release issued by ASCE which accompanied the ERP report that contained information not present in the report and information that conflicted with the report.[14]

On November 5, 2007, New Orleans-based grassroots group Levees.Org released an online Public Service Announcement criticizing the ASCE's close relationship with the United States Army Corps of Engineers [15]. On November 12, 2007 the ASCE asked Levees.Org to take the video off of the internet, threatening the organization with legal action[16]. On November 13, the Times-Picayune reposted the controversial video on their website.[17]

On November 14, 2007, following the controversial video affair, the ASCE confirmed the launch of an internal ethics probe of its staff and members based on complaints[18] by University of California-Berkeley professor Dr. Raymond B. Seed, who served on a separate independent panel investigating levee failures. [16] President David Mongan, in a letter to the Times Picayune, assured the citizens of metro New Orleans that ASCE takes "this matter very seriously and that appropriate actions are being taken."[19]

On December 14, 2007, Levees.Org reposted the controversial video to the internet citing Louisiana's Anti-SLAPP statute which allows courts to weed out lawsuits designed to chill public participation on matters of public significance.[20].

In March 2008, Levees.Org announced that records obtained in a request under the Freedom of Information Act revealed that as early October 2005, the US Army Corps of Engineers directed the ASCE and later paid the group more than $1.1 million for their peer review and for giving presentations which the non-profit claimed contained at least 10 falsehoods, 4 significant omissions and numerous misrepresentations. Members of the ASCE are forbidden from making false or exaggerated statements and also from making statements for an interested party unless this is disclosed.[21]

One Mile east of my Location in 2005

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1821. xcool
First of all, on the free site, there is a review of my hurricane ideas. This is a review because the forecast I issued came out in February to clients, here publicly in early March. But what is interesting is that there is an independent consensus between the CSU crew and what I am saying. With the help of Ken, we show later computer models and the water from two of the analog years, '05, and '98, compared to now. Remember, what I am doing with all of you is saying that this year will be, as far as recent memory goes with the U.S., much closer to 2008 than 2009, a congregation of tracks that threatens the areas that got the worst in '08. The long standing worry on the East Coast remains, because of the now-cold PDO and warm AMO signal, but it would probably be from a storm breaking out of the pack (example, Gloria 1985, or Hanna 2008, if Hanna had not got tangled up with Hispaniola). I have no real changes overall, and the objective person can see what I have had out and continue to go with.

Everyone out there that reads me knows that Bill Gray is a hero of mine. His very able heir apparent can't be a hero, since he is younger (much) than I, but he is great too. I want to also emphasize that without Bill Gray, a lot of us would not be doing what we do as far as hurricanes. It's a lot easier to stand on a giants shoulder than be the giant yourself.


by joe
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I think one thing that is being overlooked is that yeah it is obviously risky and life-threatening to go out into a powerful hurricane, but that is part of it. Yeah it is easy to sit here on our desk chairs talk about it, but there are some of us (myself included) who like to experience the extremes in weather. Oz has a desire to experience hurricanes, and I want to see more of the awe-inspiring power of tornadoes. Yep, it's dangerous, but it's what I want to do, and the risk is high, but with the right planing and preparations, one can do this in a relatively safer manner. I think the majority of injuries and deaths that occur from chasing xtreme weather is from people who were ill prepared or not prepared at all. Preparation and education are crucial to a successful chase.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
From Wikipedia:

"Hurricane Andrew first made landfall on August 23 as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 260 km/h (160 mph). The hurricane struck the island of Eleuthera,[1] which has a population of around 8,000,[10] and is generally about 1.6 km (1 mi) in width.[11] Prior to its arrival, the hurricane caused the coastline to recede about 3 mi (5 km), which was followed by what was described as a "mighty wall of water", or a storm surge.[5] The Current, a small village in the northwestern portion of the island, recorded a surge of 7.2 m (25 ft).[7] There, more than half of the houses in the village were destroyed, and the rest of the buildings sustained minor to major damage.[4] On nearby Current Island, the hurricane destroyed 24 of the 30 houses in the village.[4] The island's only road was heavily damaged, with parts still flooded more than a week after the storm.[5]"

Three people died in North Eleuthera.

I know pple who went through the storm there, and their attitude is basically "never again".
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Homestead got the southern eyewall. If the houses were built up to code, I wouldn't expect a significant increase in loss of life if Andrew were to hit again today.
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Just on a point of info, all the deaths in the Bahamas from Andrew were surge-related. IIRC.
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On a serious note, folk, what do u think it would take to get the basic wx reporting setup - i.e. enough to report / record wind speed, sustained and gusts, pressure, and rainfall - through a cat 3 / 4 / 5 'cane? Could something specialized be placed at reporting stations just to attempt to accurately record these events? U know, like a stationary dropsonde with its own power source and if possible external reporting capability that would be brought in to wx stations within a landfall zone?

Any ideas?
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Oooooo, this is going to be pretty morbid.

But let's say I get caught up in a real bad Cat 5 and unfortunately, I don't make it out.

My epirb will be going off, so I should be located.

Folks, I'm wearing my camera equipment this year. The cameras should still be mounted to me when I'm found.

My team has strict instructions to publish the footage, no matter the content. My wife, who will assume control of the cameras, knows who to give it to so that my wishes are met.
Oz, WUmail me. Before fed folks go in looking for you, as they will, I can hook you up with the local air operations center up front so they'll know your plan...risk management.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
He has a point, FLTigers. Compare loss of life with Andrew, cat 5 winds (around 25) and Katrina, cat 5 surge (around 250 in MI). (I'm not counting deaths in NOLA here, because some might argue that NOLA has some unusual man-made features that created unusual circumstances. MI, on the other hand, is in many ways comparable to SE FL in that respect.)


Oh, I was just saying that in a Cateogry Five storm, everything is going to be catastrophic. There is no "more important" factor. Surge is bad for people on the coast. Floods are bad for people in low lying areas or places prone to historical flooding. Widns are damaging to well, everyone in a Cat. 5.

Homestead also wasn't heavily populated in 1992. Homestead really grew since then. If Andrew were to have struck this year instead of 1992, I think you'd see a large enough increase in loss of life. Not to the extent of Biloxi, but a large enough number.
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Do what you want to do Oz, chase your dreams



Tornado Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

VAC037-083-090030-
/O.CON.KRNK.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-100409T0030Z/
HALIFAX VA-CHARLOTTE VA-
800 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
CHARLOTTE AND NORTHERN HALIFAX COUNTIES...

AT 755 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RIDGEWAY...OR 7
MILES NORTH OF INGRAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEDA...
NATHALIE...
ASPEN...
PHENIX...
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 7847 3679 7915 3694 7912 3703 7893
3703 7892 3704 7890 3716 7861 3715 7859
3716 7856 3715 7854 3713 7850 3710 7849
3708 7844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 238DEG 42KT 3688 7905

$$

SK






Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
The wind related deaths in Andrew came from houses not built up to code, mostly in Naranja Lakes. The roofs blew off and metal beams and other debris were dropped inside killing those unprotected. My house went through the northern eyewall, and held up pretty well for the most part. As long as your house is built up to a strong code, it can take a surprising amount of wind damage. However, no house can protect you from storm surge. New Orleans did not experience true storm surge from Katrina. Mississippi did.
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1811. hydrus
Quoting CycloneOz:
You know, sorry to say, but these Cat 5 arguments make more sense to me than the GW ones we find ourselves in sometime.
OZ- Let me tell you something, I believe your doing something you love. And at the same time gathering valuable information and footage. I know you are aware it is dangerous, and your family knows it too. The knowledge you have on these storms will keep you around for a long time. Just saying I wish you the best and I am looking forward to seeing more of your video,s.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21492
Quoting iluvjess:
1797. Agreed. Well the whole rating system is changing this year and will hopefully eliminate a lot of cunfusion regarding wind vs water.


I don't think you could make a "scale" from floods or surges though. It all varies from storm to storm. I like changing the scale to inform people that it's about the wind damage, but I don't know if any other sort of scale could ever be accurate.
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1795 Oz man I want to chase hurricanes from their development to landfall using submarines and "disposable" surface craft.

But no one thought that was a good idea last year when I proposed it.


Hey, I wear Dolphins and know how to drive a submarine .. need a pilot..I'm in!
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Uh oh...you've lumped me in with him, huh? ;)
Nah... worlds apart.... lol
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Quoting FloridaTigers:


No it isn't. Hurricane Andrew was Category 5 conditions well inland around the eyewall. Surge isn't the only thing in a storm.
He has a point, FLTigers. Compare loss of life with Andrew, cat 5 winds (around 25) and Katrina, cat 5 surge (around 250 in MI). (I'm not counting deaths in NOLA here, because some might argue that NOLA has some unusual man-made features that created unusual circumstances. MI, on the other hand, is in many ways comparable to SE FL in that respect.)
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Quoting NRAamy:
I want to chase hurricanes from their development to landfall using submarines and "disposable" surface craft.

you could use cyclonebuster's tunnels.....

;)


Uh oh...you've lumped me in with him, huh? ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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