Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on April 05, 2010

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Could global warming increase wind shear over the Atlantic, potentially leading to a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes? There is a growing consensus among hurricane scientists that this is indeed quite possible. Two recent studies, by Zhao et al. (2009), "Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM", and by Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", found that global warming might increase wind shear over the Atlantic by the end of the century, resulting in a decrease in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. For example, the second study took 18 relatively coarse (>60 km grid size) models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate report, and "downscaled" them using a higher-resolution (18 km grid size) model called ZETAC that was able to successfully simulate the frequencies of hurricanes over the past 50 years. When the 18 km ZETAC model was driven using the climate conditions we expect in 2100, as output by the 18 IPCC models, the authors found that a reduction of Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century resulted. An important reason that their model predicted a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.


Figure 1. Top: predicted change by 2100 in wind shear (in meters per second per degree C of warming--multiply by two to get mph) as predicted by summing the predictions of 18 climate models. Bottom: The number of models that predict the effect shown in the top image. The dots show the locations where tropical storms formed between 1981-2005. The box indicates a region of frequent hurricane formation where wind shear is not predicted to change much. Image credit: Geophysical Research Letters, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", by Vecchi and Soden, 2007.

Since the Knutson et al. study using the 18 km resolution ZETAC model was not detailed enough to look at what might happen to major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes, a new study using a higher resolution model was needed. This was done by a team of modelers led by Dr. Morris Bender of NOAA's GFDL laboratory, who published their results in Science in February. The authors used the GFDL hurricane model--the model that has been our best-performing operation hurricane track forecasting model over the past five years--to perform their study. The GFDL hurricane model runs at a resolution of 9 km, which is detailed enough to make accurate simulations of major hurricanes. The researchers did a double downscaling study, where they first took the forecast atmospheric and oceanic conditions at generated by the coarse (>60 km grid) IPCC models, used these data to initialize the finer resolution 18 km ZETAC model, then used the output from the ZETAC model to initialize the high-resolution GFDL hurricane model. The final results of this "double downscaling" study suggest that although the total number of hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, we should expect an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms in the Atlantic. This trend should not be clearly detectable until about 60 years from now, given a scenario in which CO2 doubles by 2100. The authors say that their model predicts that there should already have been a 20% increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms since the 1940s, given the approximate 0.5°C warming of the tropical Atlantic during that period. This trend is too small to be detectable, given the high natural variability and the difficulty we've had accurately measuring the exact strength of intense hurricanes before the 1980s.The region of the Atlantic expected to see the greatest increase in Category 4 and 5 storms by the year 2100 is over the Bahama Islands (Figure 2), since wind shear is not expected to increase in this region, and sea surface temperatures and atmospheric instability are expected to increase there.

The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors compute, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. Over the past century, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to the Science paper by Bender et al. (2010).

Commentary
These results seem reasonable, since the models in question have been successfully been able to simulate the behavior of hurricanes over the past 50 years. However, the uncertainties are high and lot more research needs to be done before we can be confident of the results. Not all of the IPCC models predict an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic by 2100, so the increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could be much greater. Also, the GFDL model was observed to under-predict the strength of intense hurricanes in the current climate, so it may not be creating enough Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the future climate of 2100. On the other hand, IPCC models such as the UKMO-HadCM3 predict a very large increase in wind shear, leading to a drastic reduction in all hurricanes in the Atlantic by 2100, including Category 4 and 5 storms. So Category 4 and 5 hurricane frequency could easily be much greater or much less than the 81% increase by 2100 found by Bender et al.

The estimates of a 30% increase in hurricane damages by 2100 may be considerably too low, since this estimate assumes that sea level rise will continue at the same pace as was observed in the 20th century. Sea level rise has accelerated since the 1990s, and it is likely that this century we will see much more than than the 7 inches of global sea level rise that was observed last century. Higher sea level rise rates will sharply increase the damages due to storm surge, which account for a large amount of the damage from intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that while a 30% in hurricane damage by the end of the century is significant, this will not be the main reason hurricane damages will increase this century. Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. By 2015, the authors expect the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage. This number would increase to $600 billion by 2025 (though I think it is likely that the recent recession may delay this damage total a few years into the future.) It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must.

The authors of the GFDL hurricane model study have put together a nice web page with links to the paper and some detailed non-technical explanations of the paper.

References
Bender et al., 2010, "Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes", Science, 22 January 2010: Vol. 327. no. 5964, pp. 454 - 458 DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568.

Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison, 2006, "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing", Nature, 441(7089), 73-76.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
The nasty cell from earlier died crossing Lake Erie.
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Quoting Skyepony:


You don't usually hear people say that, just articles funded by anticlimate saying more hurricanes is bogus.. AMS, NOVA & many other good sources has been pretty open & loud on the subject..

As for the main point I don't see..it's gibberish only to confuse & cause statements like the world is getting colder & that makes me want to drink a glacier.. lets review..

You ask & state...explain to me why every single model projection I see for GW looks like a perfect representation of a permanent El Nino? This map fits beautifully with their super-nino theory though.
Lets look at that map..

Top one is forecasted shear in a warmer world.. if this was a representation of super-el niño why is shear reduced or normal for the most the MDR in the Atlantic & increased in the EPAC?? This is the exact opposite of El Nino.. Lets just assume your eyes glazed over cause it was a GW map & you took it for hot & cold anomalies..why is the EPAC over the equator..blue for a super el nino?

The bottom map is the actual # of models that forecast this senerio..so right before your eyes your seeing not all 18 models are predicting this or the same thing for that matter & still you state..every single model I've seen... Your too good at reading graphs & maps to ask such a question..


Excellent post
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Quoting hydrus:
1. TN-100 2.MO-70 3.AL-52 4.GE-46 5.AR-33 ...Fatalities ranked by state from tornadoes since 2000.


Is Indiana number 6?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
651. Skyepony (Mod)
Indianriverguy~ Pretty amazing to see Landsea & Emanual's name on the same paper for this topic..I think a lot was learned from their argument & quest for answers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
650. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:


I usually stay away during the off-season, since it's mostly boring and I have school in the winter. But ya...I know there wasn't much of a consensus, but that's all you usually hear from people is that hurricanes are on the increase because of GW and they will keep increasing.

But that particular issue aside, I still want a response to the main point of my post.


You don't usually hear people say that, just articles funded by anticlimate saying more hurricanes is bogus.. AMS, NOVA & many other good sources has been pretty open & loud on the subject..

As for the main point I don't see..it's gibberish only to confuse & cause statements like the world is getting colder & that makes me want to drink a glacier.. lets review..

You ask & state...explain to me why every single model projection I see for GW looks like a perfect representation of a permanent El Nino? This map fits beautifully with their super-nino theory though.
Lets look at that map..

Top one is forecasted shear in a warmer world.. if this was a representation of super-el niño why is shear reduced or normal for the most the MDR in the Atlantic & increased in the EPAC?? This is the exact opposite of El Nino.. Lets just assume your eyes glazed over cause it was a GW map & you took it for hot & cold anomalies..why is the EPAC over the equator..blue for a super el nino?

The bottom map is the actual # of models that forecast this senerio..so right before your eyes your seeing not all 18 models are predicting this or the same thing for that matter & still you state..every single model I've seen... Your too good at reading graphs & maps to ask such a question..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPC Storm Reports for 4-6-10:

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ There was never any published papers or much scientific support that GW was or would increase the # of cyclones.. You must have missed off season the last several years here..


Great link to the shuttle pics Skye, thanks.. and yours were good too, I checked them out yesterday!

I'm on Doctor Chris Landsea's HURDAT mailing list and he sent this back on the 26th.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/knutson-et-al-nat-geo.pdf

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/Knutson_NatureGeo_Suppl_Info_Final.pdf

Interesting at the very least.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE APR 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062006Z - 062100Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH DMGG HAIL/WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH TIME OF INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR MORE AGITATED IN PORTIONS OF NWRN OK
THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG THE DRY LINE WHERE SURFACE WIND
FIELDS SEEM TO INDICATE FAVORABLE CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED A STOUT CAP...POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THIS
COULD BE OVERCOME...AS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED
AND/OR MOVED EWD...LEADING TO FAVORABLE SURFACE HEATING.
TEMPERATURES W OF THE DRY LINE ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 80S...WHICH
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES LOW 90S WOULD BE
NECESSARY...AND GIVES SOME SUPPORT THAT STORMS COULD INITIATE GIVEN
A FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST...NOW ANALYZED IN SERN CO/ERN NM WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT/UPPER DYNAMICS AS IT EJECTS EWD...ESPECIALLY BY/AFTER 00Z.
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY OR REMAINED
SLY...WHICH GIVEN INITIATION WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. 12Z HI-RES MODELS AND 12Z NAM APPEAR TO FAVOR
NRN OK FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD ALIGN WITH CURRENT CU
FIELD. APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE/RADAR WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...A
WW WILL BECOME LIKELY.

..HURLBUT.. 04/06/2010
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Skyepony:
We saw last week about the report on Koch & the anticlimate funding..

– A report finds that Koch is the largest funder of climate science denying organizations in the world, outpacing even ExxonMobil. Nearly $25 million in Koch money has flowed to various anti-climate science think tanks, including the Heritage Foundation, the Manhattan Institute, the Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment, the Pacific Research Institute, and the Tax Foundation, among others.

..funder of the Tea Party, hot air tour, Mason institute.. The history that goes back to the late '70s is amazing.. the pollution..promotion of how good acid rain was/how economically crippling to stop.. absolutely disturbing how this private company has been playing our political scene & legal system like puppets.. Big tobacco actually borrowed them for their smoking isn't harmful campaign. This private company's history & how it ties to who & where we are is something..


What global warming has to do with the Tea Party Movement? I mean if there is a connection then you can kiss any climate legislation bye bye, since the Tea Party Movement is far bigger than the democratic party and it will be responsible for the complete elimination of the democrats in the government. I suggest they try their best to pass any legislation before 2010 or just forget about it.
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NEW TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED BY THE SPC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST OF LAMONI IOWA
TO 45 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW NEAR DSM. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO NORTHEAST IA.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Levi32:


Just pretend it was a CFS forecast for this year, and what immediately pops into your head as a cause for such a presentation? El Nino.

Good point. Without the context, I would agree with you.

I refuse to take a firm stance on the whole GW debate, since both sides have merit. The only stance I will take is that the climate is off-balance, and the cause is us. (by climate, I mean everything from CO2 increases to acid rain to ozone)

We have pillaged the planet pretty well already, and have trashed it pretty well. From consuming everything and anything the planet has to offer to polluting the land, air, and water, mother earth is way off balance. We need to give back as much as we take.

If you build a house from wood, plant some trees.
If you grow a garden or farm, use natural fertilizer, instead of manufactured chemicals.
If you have to use a non-renewable resource (such as oil or mined metals), use as little as possible.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


If you take a computer and feed it flawed data, it will give you flawed results. If the data is biased, the results will be biased as well. This should explain your question.


Yes, exactly my point on what the models have been fed since they were created. All the input they have been working with has come from a warm PDO era, with predominantly El Nino conditions in the Pacific. It is not a stretch then, to think that the models may project such things in the long term based on what we have observed and put into them, which has only come from one phase of a very powerful cycle that has a serious effect on our climate. And if they are projecting such a cycle to continue and intensify in this phase in the future, then the resulting patterns in temperature which are caused by it will reveal themselves as well on the model, and that is obviously what the models are giving us.

What I want is one of these people to tell us exactly why their models are predicting a permanent El Nino. What kind of explanation do they have? Have they even thought that the warming proclaimed by their models might be because of the El Nino they are forecasting?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
It looks like the Eastern Caribbean pattern of dry conditions will change next week.NWS San Juan discussion at link.

Link
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This El Nino does not wanna die...



If that keeps up it will certainly have an impact on the season. However, it's still likely the el nine will be gone by late may or early June.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting jeffs713:

The things that don't fit with a Super-Nino is the increase in shear over the EPAC, and the lack of a shear increase over the MDR.


It's not that big of a difference. The eastern MDR doesn't see a significant increase in shear during El Ninos on average. The effect is more towards the west.

And the "shear" you're talking about in the eastern Pacific isn't necessarily hurricane-inhibiting shear. During El Ninos 200mb wind speeds actually do increase over the eastern pacific north of 15N. However, they are primarily due to air moving outward away from focused upward air motion (convection), which can be thought of as "outflow" moving eastward out of the Pacific where a lot of air is rising in thunderstorms. This is why even though you see increased wind shear in the EPAC north of 15N during El Ninos, it's mostly a favorable setup to ventilate storms. The Dr's map shows increased shear down to 10N but again the difference is not too big. There are obviously a few other things involved as well, but it seems obvious what the driving force behind the forecast must be. The whole thing looks like an El Nino setup. Just pretend it was a CFS forecast for this year, and what immediately pops into your head as a cause for such a presentation? El Nino.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
639. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This El Nino does not wanna die...



Region 1&2 really got a shot of heat from the last Kelvin wave. Be interesting what the winds do with it once it all surfaces.

Still think the certainty of the timetable of this demise is a little higher than usual. That last Kelvin wave was a little stronger than modeled.
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Hey all giving my new iPad a spin on weather underground. I'll be using it during this season mostly. It works great! Also csu comes out with their predictions tommorrow right? It will be curious to see what they have to say about the upcoming hurricane season.. I'm still sticking with 15/7/4 for the season. Hope the season isn't rought on anyone this year. I suggest that you guys start getting ready may 1st, it's never too early.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting Levi32:
I'm sorry that I have to post this, but it's a question I'd like to know the answer to, and I just now got to read the Dr's post after Easter weekend.



Can anyone explain to me why every single model projection I see for GW looks like a perfect representation of a permanent El Nino? I'd like to know exactly why they seem to think that GW would result in a permanent El Nino. Do they think the Walker Circulation is gonna shut down? Or that the oceans' thermohaline circulations are going to stop?

And this is all minus the fact that they were all proclaiming doom with year-round hurricane seasons and 10-fold the number of storms or whatever they said. All this time GW was supposed to increase hurricanes and now....huh? What made you change your mind?

This map fits beautifully with their super-nino theory though.

Wouldn't it be amazing if the models were actually forecasting GW to look like this because they actually know what causes warming on a global scale in our day and age? And it's not all CO2....it's mostly the oceans...El Nino associated with a warm PDO (don't get mad it's all theories guys). The models have been bred during a warm PDO era. That's all they are used to, because that is all the input we can give them. Wouldn't it be amazing if they are seeing a permanent El Nino in their simulations because that is exactly what warms our earth? (at least in decadal timescales)


If you take a computer and feed it flawed data, it will give you flawed results. If the data is biased, the results will be biased as well. This should explain your question.
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636. Skyepony (Mod)
We saw last week about the report on Koch & the anticlimate funding..

– A report finds that Koch is the largest funder of climate science denying organizations in the world, outpacing even ExxonMobil. Nearly $25 million in Koch money has flowed to various anti-climate science think tanks, including the Heritage Foundation, the Manhattan Institute, the Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment, the Pacific Research Institute, and the Tax Foundation, among others.

..funder of the Tea Party, hot air tour, Mason institute.. The history that goes back to the late '70s is amazing.. the pollution..promotion of how good acid rain was/how economically crippling to stop.. absolutely disturbing how this private company has been playing our political scene & legal system like puppets.. Big tobacco actually borrowed them for their smoking isn't harmful campaign. This private company's history & how it ties to who & where we are is something..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This El Nino does not wanna die...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting xcool:
Dr. William Gray aprill 7.i;m call for 16-7-4.


16! Oh wow. I thought it would be an above average season but I didn't think that much.
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633. xcool
Dr. William Gray aprill 7.i;m call for 16-7-4.
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yes, from Wichita to Google.. watch out!
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Quoting Minnemike:
looks like the highway from Wichita to Topeka's could get rough. that line is just blowing up and may make for a very long drive down that road. there is not a lot of east movement to it, could become some serious road flooding if it does shift east some. it is just a train right now!


You mean Google.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ There was never any published papers or much scientific support that GW was or would increase the # of cyclones.. You must have missed off season the last several years here..


I usually stay away during the off-season, since it's mostly boring and I have school in the winter. But ya...I know there wasn't much of a consensus, but that's all you usually hear from people is that hurricanes are on the increase because of GW and they will keep increasing.

But that particular issue aside, I still want a response to the main point of my post.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Levi32:


I'm totally going to have a party on that day...just to laugh when nothing happens...lol.
Ditto, I typed the same post you did a while back. And believe me, we will party...and fish, water ski, surf, race boats, providing there are no blizzards or other strange phenomena cast down on us from the many angry Mayan Gods.
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Quoting Levi32:
I'm sorry that I have to post this, but it's a question I'd like to know the answer to.



Can anyone explain to me why every single model projection I see for GW looks like a perfect representation of a permanent El Nino? I'd like to know exactly why they seem to think that GW would result in a permanent El Nino. Do they think the Walker Circulation is gonna shut down? Or that the oceans' thermohaline circulations are going to stop?

And this is all minus the fact that they were all proclaiming doom with year-round hurricane seasons and 10-fold the number of storms or whatever they said. All this time GW was supposed to increase hurricanes and now....huh? What made you change your mind?

This map fits beautifully with their super-nino theory though.

The things that don't fit with a Super-Nino is the increase in shear over the EPAC, and the lack of a shear increase over the MDR.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting Levi32:


I'm totally going to have a party on that day...just to laugh when nothing happens...lol.

my history teacher bought a bunker in NY just for that day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like the highway from Wichita to Topeka's could get rough. that line is just blowing up and may make for a very long drive down that road. there is not a lot of east movement to it, could become some serious road flooding if it does shift east some. it is just a train right now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
625. Skyepony (Mod)
Levi~ There was never any published papers or much scientific support that GW was or would increase the # of cyclones.. You must have missed off season the last several years here..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
...


Well Levi... it will sure be really something if that were to work out that way.
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Quoting hydrus:
All super long range models are superfluous, It all ends December 21 2012.hhhhaaaaa! not.


I'm totally going to have a party on that day...just to laugh when nothing happens...lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
622. Skyepony (Mod)
At least 31 people have died in the Brazilian state of Rio de Janeiro after more than 15 hours of continuous rain.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Its a good thing to get the general public to start thinking about the upcoming season and needed preparations and insurance, etc, for their "just in case" moment....Assuming they will come in with an above average season, it will be good to see all the media outlets "run with it" so folks keep their guard up this year.


Definitely...
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Quoting Levi32:
I'm sorry that I have to post this, but it's a question I'd like to know the answer to.



Can anyone explain to me why every single model projection I see for GW looks like a perfect representation of a permanent El Nino? I'd like to know exactly why they seem to think that GW would result in a permanent El Nino. Do they think the Walker Circulation is gonna shut down? Or that the oceans' thermohaline circulations are going to stop?

And this is all minus the fact that they were all proclaiming doom with year-round hurricane seasons and 10-fold the number of storms or whatever they said. All this time GW was supposed to increase hurricanes and now....huh? What made you change your mind?

This map fits beautifully with their super-nino theory though.
All super long range models are superfluous, It all ends December 21 2012.hhhhaaaaa! not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm sorry that I have to post this, but it's a question I'd like to know the answer to, and I just now got to read the Dr's post after Easter weekend.



Can anyone explain to me why every single model projection I see for GW looks like a perfect representation of a permanent El Nino? I'd like to know exactly why they seem to think that GW would result in a permanent El Nino. Do they think the Walker Circulation is gonna shut down? Or that the oceans' thermohaline circulations are going to stop?

And this is all minus the fact that they were all proclaiming doom with year-round hurricane seasons and 10-fold the number of storms or whatever they said. All this time GW was supposed to increase hurricanes and now....huh? What made you change your mind?

This map fits beautifully with their super-nino theory though.

Wouldn't it be amazing if the models were actually forecasting GW to look like this because they actually know what causes warming on a global scale in our day and age? And it's not all CO2....it's mostly the oceans...El Nino associated with a warm PDO (don't get mad it's all theories guys). The models have been bred during a warm PDO era. That's all they are used to, because that is all the input we can give them. Wouldn't it be amazing if they are seeing a permanent El Nino in their simulations because that is exactly what warms our earth? (at least in decadal timescales)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
616. Skyepony (Mod)
Spaceweather.com had a write up on the after launch noctilucent cloud & the odd thing it did going over the horizon.
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Twin Spans,Twin Cyclones..Twin Peaks..


I gotta,

.wait,are we "LIVE" ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
thank you jeffstradamas


hahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
So you need Domino,s, the convenient store, a surgeon, and an organ donor. Nothing to it. :)

suh-weet!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm glad to be of service!!!


you forecasts always sound as if slightly tinged with mysterious foreboding :)
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 56
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON OVER ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KS AND
NORTHWEST MO...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WATCH AREA. FAVORABLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL PROMOTE A RISK
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THIS ZONE.
VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS SUGGEST THAT
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC009-013-029-121-062015-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0001.100406T1910Z-100406T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
310 PM EDT TUE APR 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUNKIRK...AND MOVING EAST
AT 70 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE ERIE BEACH BY 325 PM EDT...
ANGOLA BY 330 PM EDT...
EDEN BY 335 PM EDT...
BOSTON BY 340 PM EDT...
CHAFFEE BY 350 PM EDT...
JAVA CENTER BY 355 PM EDT...
BLISS BY 400 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK
SHELTER NOW...AND MOVE CARS INTO A GARAGE IF POSSIBLE.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting twhcracker:


thank you jeffstradamas
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Looks like a Severe T Storm is headed for Dunkirk, NY, just south of Buffalo, NY
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Jeff9641:


A nasty squall line will develope later tonight and blast into western TN tomorrow. I would watchout for supercells to form out ahead of the line tomorrow as this your best chance for seeing tornadoes.
I am hoping that the storms will weaken some before reaching Middle TN. We have a kennel of Irish Wolfhounds and my parents are at an advanced age. I will be watching things closely. If they were coming in the afternoon with the daytime heating I would be more concerned.
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Quoting presslord:


done...send me yours and I'll send you a South Carolina palmetto and crescent state flag...
wife said she will pick one up tomorrow it will be sent tomorrow
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.