Comparing New England's floods to the floods of Hurricanes Connie and Diane (1955)

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on April 02, 2010

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The flood waters have receded in Rhode Island and surrounding regions of New England, leaving hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, but no flood-related deaths. The floods were caused by the third in a series of three extraordinarily wet Nor'easters that drenched the region with record rains over the past month. It was the wettest March on record over most of coastal New England from New York City to Boston, and the wettest month of any kind for several stations, including Providence, Rhode Island, and Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts. The rainfall amounts and resulting flooding in many cases exceeded the records set 55 years ago, during the notorious double-punch hurricanes of August 1955, when hurricanes Connie and Diane hit New England within five days of each other. However, this year's flooding event pales in comparison to the 1955 event, when considering damage and death toll. Hurricane Connie killed 25 people, and Hurricane Diane killed nearly 200 people when its record rains drenched regions already in flood because of Hurricane Connie. The single deadliest event occurred when a creek near Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania overflowed, killing fifty people unable to escape the rising water. Diane was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history, until it was surpassed by Hurricane Betsy in 1965. Accounting for inflation, Diane was the 16th costliest hurricane in U.S. history, with total damages of $7 billion (2004 USD.)


Figure 1. Total rainfall from hurricanes Connie and Diane in 1995. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Observed precipitation for the month of March 2010. Image credit: NOAA.

Severe weather today for Texas, Arkansas, and surrounding states
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has designated portions of Texas and surrounding states as being at "slight" risk of severe weather today, as a strong springtime storm sweeps through the region. Check out the blog of our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, to get the details of this potential severe weather episode, which may bring damaging winds, hail, and possible tornadoes to the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex this afternoon.

Portlight shipping 30,000 pounds of rice to Haiti
Portlight.org continues to work hard to get food and medical supplies into the earthquake zone in Haiti. Their latest effort is a shipment of 30,000 pounds of rice and 20,000 pounds of other supplies, mostly medical equipment, that has been loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew. The schooner is laying in Miami, fully loaded, waiting for a decrease in the easterly trade winds. These trade winds will blow at 10 - 20 knots over the next few days, thanks to the clockwise circulation of air around a high pressure system located just east of the Florida coast. According to the latest run of the GFS model, as visualized using our wundermap with the model map layer turned on, the high will slowly move eastward over the next week, and the easterly trade winds will finally die down by Thursday, allowing the Halie and Mathew to set sail for Hispaniola. Please visit the Portlight.org web site to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 3. Some of the 30,000 pounds of rice that has been loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew.

Jeff Masters

Rhode Island Flooding@ Newport # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
Rhode Island Flooding@ Newport # 9

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290. CybrTeddy
1:05 PM GMT on April 04, 2010
Reminder for all Floridians.. rare pre-dawn Shuttle launch tonight. 6:21 a.m EDT. Penultimate flight of Space Shuttle Discovery and the 4th-to-last flight of America's space shuttle which began service in 1981. Godspeed Discovery.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
289. wunderkidcayman
12:35 PM GMT on April 04, 2010
Quoting Greyelf:

Happy Easter everyone!

Happy Easter Greyelf
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288. Greyelf
11:54 AM GMT on April 04, 2010

Happy Easter everyone!
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
287. AussieStorm
10:29 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Quoting winter123:


It's possible, but only because the "equator" is an arbitrary line drawn by humans, when in reality it can shift. It has happened at least once in the Indian ocean, a Northern Hemisphere storm was at like .5 south for like half a day.

I would of thought it was impossible due to the fact that going north south or south north, it would have to stop its circulation. A northern hemisphere low would be come a southern hemisphere high, and a southern hemisphere low would become a northern hemisphere high when they make the transition across the equator.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
285. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:08 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROBYN, CAT 2 (12U)
3:00 PM WST April 4 2010
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Robyn, Category 2 (986 hPa) located at 14.5S 92.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===========================
12 HRS: 15.1S 92.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 15.5S 92.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 15.5S 92.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 16.3S 89.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=========================
Tropical Cyclone Robyn is located in low shear with UW-CIMSS at 0000 UTC indicating about 8 knots of NNE shear. Robyn is likely to slowly intensify in this low shear environment, favourable SSTs and good upper level outflow to the south. Dvorak: Recent visible imagery suggests 0.8 wrap [curved band pattern] giving a DT of 3.5. 24hr trend is now D- giving a MET of 3.5 with PAT 3.5. Hence FT/CI set to 3.5. A general southward track is forecast with light steering flow with a ridge to the south remaining weak. Later on Sunday and during Monday a deepening mid-level trough to the south may help to deepen the system. On Tuesday a mid-level ridge is likely to develop to the south and steer the system to the west. It is then expected to weaken as shear increases.

The cyclone is likely to remain over open waters and does not pose a risk to island or coastal communities.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
284. winter123
6:40 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
Has there ever been a Cyclone that's crossed the Equator or would that be impossible.


It's possible, but only because the "equator" is an arbitrary line drawn by humans, when in reality it can shift. It has happened at least once in the Indian ocean, a Northern Hemisphere storm was at like .5 south for like half a day.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
283. AussieStorm
5:56 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Coal carrier Shen Neng 1 runs aground on Great Barrier Reef


The coal carrier Shen Neng 1 losing oil. Picture: Queensland Maritime Safety Queensland

A CHINESE coal carrier leaking oil in the Great Barrier Reef was off course and in a restricted zone, 15km outside the shipping lane, when it ran aground.



* Shen Neng 1 hits Barrier Reef at full speed.
* Coal carry could take weeks to salvage.
* Ship leaking oil, in danger of breaking up.

The 230m bulk coal carrier Shen Neng 1 ran aground on a reef about 70km east of Great Keppel Island on Saturday.

The vessel, which was carrying about 65,000 tonnes of coal from Gladstone, has 950 tonnes of oil on board.

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh told reporters the carrier was in danger of breaking apart and police were standing by to evacuate the 23 crew onboard if necessary.

She said the vessel had hit the reef at full speed.

"We are now very worried we might see further oil discharged from this ship,'' said Ms Bligh, who added the ship was in 'very poor condition'.

Captain Patrick Quirk, general manager of Maritime Safety Queensland, said the vessel was badly damaged in a number of areas.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

"We could expect the continued leakage of oil is probably the best case we could expect,'' he said.

"At one stage last night, we thought the ship was close to breaking up.

"She is completely damaged on the port side. We are still very concerned about the ship.

"It is in danger of actually breaking a number of its main structures and breaking into a number of parts.''

The Premier said specialised crews could take up to ''several weeks'' to salvage the ship once it was able to be moved.

It is expected that if a large amount of oil leaks from the ship it could take up to two days to reach the shore, most likely at Shoalwater Bay, north of Rockhampton.

Earlier this morning a national oil spill response plan was activated, however, a spokesman for Maritime Safety Queensland said there had been no major loss of oil but there was a small number of oil patches about two nautical miles south-east from the ship.

The Federal Government's Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority gave the go-ahead for the use of aerial dispersant to minimise the environmental damage.

In a statement, Environment Protection Minister Peter Garrett said the dispersant would be trialled to assess its effectiveness before it was more widely deployed.

Mr Garrett said the National Oil Spill Response Plan was activated and an incident control centre established as soon as authorities were notified about the stricken carrier.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority airlifted a surveyor on to the vessel to carry out a damage assessment and Dornier surveillance aircraft was flown from Cairns to assess the situation.

Meanwhile, conservationists have expressed outrage that bulk carriers can travel from Gladstone to Cairns without a marine pilot to guide them through the Great Barrier Reef.

Capricorn Conservation Council spokesman Ian Herbert said the incident - which follows a large oil spill from the container carrier Pacific Adventurer, which polluted Moreton Island and Sunshine Coast beaches in March 2009 - will not be the last.

"We can be certain that this is a sign of things to come," Mr Herbet said. "A year ago, Moreton Island, yesterday Great Keppel Island, next year - who knows where?

"Who knows what damage will be done to our local coral reefs and marine animals from the oil spill from the ship?

"We are outraged that no marine pilot is required on ships between Gladstone and Cairns.''

Mr Herbert said there was going to be an "explosion'' in the number of ships transporting coal and LNG within the next decade, from the central Queensland ports of Gladstone and Rockhampton.

"This will increase the likelihood of similar events,'' he said. "The state government has been acting like snake oil salesmen spruiking the riches to be made from exporting LNG and more coal, however they fail to acknowledge the environmental harm that will be caused both on land and sea by these industries.''

Mr Herbet said the Environmental Impact Statement process had become a joke.

"Who will be paying for the clean up this time?

"Last year the state government had to go cap in hand to the company that polluted Moreton Island.

"It is time that the industry, not the taxpayer, foots the bill for the full cost of the clean up.''
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
282. AussieStorm
5:53 AM GMT on April 04, 2010

NOGAPS for next Friday.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
281. AussieStorm
5:48 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Has there ever been a Cyclone that's crossed the Equator or would that be impossible.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
280. wunderkidcayman
4:29 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
CHECK OUT MY NEW BLOG

Link
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
279. wunderkidcayman
4:02 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Hi guys whats up
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
278. JRRP
3:20 AM GMT on April 04, 2010

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
277. winter123
2:47 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Possible widespread snow event in New York state next weekend. It was 84 the past two days! Crazy weather.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
275. Patrap
1:36 AM GMT on April 04, 2010

GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery



These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
274. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:35 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
273. Patrap
1:30 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
WAVETRAK - Tropical Wave Tracking
Product Descriptions | 7-Day Image Archive


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272. Patrap
1:24 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
271. Levi32
1:10 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
5-day global SST change shows widespread 1C-2C warming in the gulf during the last 5 days.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
270. HurricaneSwirl
12:58 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Everyone remember all the blue colors in the GOM just 2-3 days ago?

As Jeff said, the warm-up is causing the temps to rise quite quickly, and they're almost all gone now:

Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
269. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:51 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yep... Last year I believe we hit 100 in as early as late May/early June, and we had heat index readings in the 120's.

Is it possible that we'll see a repeat of that?
actually iam expecting it to be above normal temps for the summer from n of se us across mid atlantic cen grt lakes and american canadian eastern seaboard regions the se us and gom regions will be slightly below normal with above normal precip till at least late july early aug
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
266. HurricaneSwirl
12:37 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
long hot summer lies ahead


Yep... Last year I believe we hit 100 in as early as late May/early June, and we had heat index readings in the 120's.

Is it possible that we'll see a repeat of that?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
265. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:19 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Wow, in central GA we're supposed to hit 89 tomorrow for Easter, and then we're supposed to be in the 90's on Monday and Tuesday.
long hot summer lies ahead
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
264. Chucktown
12:08 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Quoting troy1993:
Hey does anybody remember exactly when Jill Brown left the Weather Channel?



Link
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263. HurricaneSwirl
12:04 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Wow, in central GA we're supposed to hit 89 tomorrow for Easter, and then we're supposed to be in the 90's on Monday and Tuesday.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
262. BahaHurican
12:04 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Astro,

Nassau is at 75.... wow.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
261. troy1993
12:02 AM GMT on April 04, 2010
Hey does anybody remember exactly when Jill Brown left the Weather Channel?
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
260. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:58 PM GMT on April 03, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
259. AstroHurricane001
11:27 PM GMT on April 03, 2010
We had our first strong gust of wind about half an hour ago. About 80 km/h (50 mph), leaves and sand blowing everywhere.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
258. DDR
11:27 PM GMT on April 03, 2010
Hello from trinidad,we actually got some scattered showers today,5mm at my location.
the drought continues...
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1729
257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:03 PM GMT on April 03, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
256. Patrap
10:26 PM GMT on April 03, 2010
Soaring for Science

The newest bird in NASA's flock -- the unmanned Global Hawk -- took off at 7 a.m. Pacific time today (April 2) from Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base in California. The flight is the first airborne checkout of the plane since it was loaded with 11 science instruments for the Global Hawk Pacific (GloPac) mission.

Pilots are also streamlining processes to coordinate the workload while the nearly autonomous plane is flying at altitudes above 60,000 feet (almost twice as high as a commercial airliner). Operators and mission researchers are using the day to make sure all instruments are operating properly while in flight -- particularly at the cold temperatures of high altitude -- and communicating clearly with the plane and ground controllers. Mission participants expect to begin collecting data when actual GloPac science flights begin over the Pacific Ocean later this month.

GloPac is the Global Hawk's first scientific mission. Instruments will sample the chemical composition of air in Earth's two lowest atmospheric layers -- the stratosphere and troposphere -- and profile the dynamics and meteorology of both. They also will observe the distribution of clouds and aerosol particles. The instruments are operated by scientists and technicians from seven science institutions and are funded by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Paul Newman, the co-mission scientist for GloPac, has been blogging about the mission on Earth Observatory's "Notes from the Field" site. Here are a few excerpts to whet your appetite...

...There is an old Latin quote: Maxima omnium virtutum est patientia.
Or patience is the greatest virtue.
When it comes to mounting science instruments on an aircraft, you need to continually return to that quote...
...During the integration this week, we've had to cut holes into the aircraft. I told Chris Naftel, the Global Hawk project manager, that we had to cut some holes into the plane for the Meteorological Measurement System. Chris replied:

I dont want to hear anything about the holes. It pains me!
In spite of Chris's pain, the little holes are critical for measuring winds. You're now asking, what? Little holes? For winds? What kind of smoke and mirrors is that measurement? It's actually a very slick little measurement that relies on the work of Daniel Bernoulli, a Dutch mathematician who lived in the 1700s...


Do these guys know they're being filmed?
March 29th, 2010 by Mike Carlowicz

From Paul Newman, GloPac co-project scientist:




One of the instruments being flown on the Global Hawk is the Airborne Compact Atmospheric Mapper. ACAM is about the size of a microwave oven, and it is mounted in the bottom of the tail of the Global Hawk.

ACAM has two parts: a spectrometer and a high-definition video camera. We all know about cameras, but what is a spectrometer? It is used to measure light at hundreds of wavelengths (both visible and invisible). Sunlight is composed of many colors that combine to form white light, and each of these colors has a specific wavelength. For example, red has a wavelength of about 650 nanometers (or 650 billionths of a meter), green is about 510 nanometers, and blue is about 475 nanometers. Digital camera images combine the red, green, and blue wavelengths to create photos.

The ACAM spectrometer can see wavelengths from about 300 to 900
nanometers, and can resolve light differences of about 1 nanometer. So what good is that? Well, certain gases absorb certain wavelengths of light, but not others. For example, ozone absorbs very strongly 310 nanometers, but much less at 330 nanometers. This difference allows us to measure how much ozone is below the Global Hawk as we fly along. Hence, we use ACAM to measure things such as pollution and dust in the lower atmosphere.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
255. Bordonaro
9:47 PM GMT on April 03, 2010
Quoting belizeit:
These things can melt a lot of ice if they flow across glaciers causing dangerous flash floods .

Actually, the fissure volcano is erupting underneath a portion of a glacier, which is of course melting. Scientists are concerned that a neighboring volcano may erupt, creating a massive ice melt and larger eruption, which may create a real big problems, links below:
Link

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
254. belizeit
9:26 PM GMT on April 03, 2010
Quoting winter123:

Oh my. is that live?? Thankfully it looks to be the middle of nowhere.
These things can melt a lot of ice if they flow across glaciers causing dangerous flash floods .
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 938
253. winter123
8:59 PM GMT on April 03, 2010
Quoting belizeit:
Ice land valcano is trowing lavaLink

Oh my. is that live?? Thankfully it looks to be the middle of nowhere.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
252. belizeit
8:41 PM GMT on April 03, 2010
Ice land valcano is trowing lavaLink
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 938
250. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROBYN, CAT 1 (12U)
3:00 AM WST April 4 2010
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Robyn, Category 1 (990 hPa) located at 14.2S 91.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===========================
12 HRS: 15.0S 91.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 15.7S 91.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.7S 91.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 17.3S 90.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=========================
Very deep convection continues near and west of the low level circulation centre. While the circulation's history has been hampered by moderate to strong ENE vertical wind shear, this has now dropped to about 10 to 15 knots and the LLCC is now more aligned with convection, suggesting that further intensification is likely. Continued southerly motion is forecast with light steering flow with a ridge to the south remaining weak. Later on Sunday and during Monday a deepening mid-level trough to the south may help to deepen the system and steer it to the southeast for a period. There is then some divergence in track predictions, although a recurvature to the west and weakening seems the most likely scenario at this stage.

The cyclone is likely to remain over open waters and does not pose a risk to
island or coastal communities.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
Without a calendar, I would call today the first day of summer here in SE TX (visiting). Warm enough in the sun to remind that I prefer winter...
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In Nino 3.4, a Weak La Nina seems to be evident for the hurricane season, and for the winter of 2010-2011.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
right now its april 3rd we should be around 48 we are at 74.5 with a humidex of 78.7 been in mid 70's for three days now even with cold front passage temps are gonna fall off a couple of degrees to high 60's or low 70'3 for highs for the week ahead so still much above normal
I'm amazed at how temps up near the 40th parallel are on par with ours down here barely north of the tropics.

Nassau, BS (Airport)
Updated: 39 min 25 sec ago
79 F / 26 C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 54%
Dew Point: 61 F / 16 C
Wind: 10 mph / 17 km/h / 4.6 m/s from the ENE
Pressure: 30.04 in / 1017 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers
UV: 10 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 3500 ft / 1066 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft / 7 m

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
The joys of the NYC-LI sea breeze. In Teterboro, NJ, about 15 miles inland, it's 70F. In Long Beach, LI, on the south shore of LI, it's 49F. Prevailing S winds, off the 47F Atlantic Ocean really keeps temperatures in check. Meanwhile, it's in the upper 70's to low 80's all across interior NY.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Apart from all the experts that were mentioned in above posts,one person that is missed in this forum is Weather456.I hope that sometime in the future he comes back.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Looks like you've spoken too soon


Good reason why i don't post during the offseason. Blog becomes way too political.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am dying here in central new york. Yesterday it hit 84 but it wasn't too bad because of lack of humidity (Record was 77). Today it might get even hotter and it's quite humid. If I didn't have a date in the bottom right corner of this screen, I'd swear it was August 15th. They REFUSE to turn the AC on at my school too! I hear a few on, so they must have taken a wrench to pry open the electric boxes. I may try that soon.

Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
241. xcool
SATURDAY HIGH NOON

SUMMER IDEA: THE RETURN OF HEAT AND HURRICANES




I find myself at odds with NOAA and the U.S.-based CFS. Both have major "non-summers" for much of the nation, and the center of all this is right in the mid-Mississippi Valley. There is much analog support for the opposite. The summers coming out of the El Nino are notorious for hot Augusts and Septembers in much of the nation. The idea of a more active hurricane season coming off an El Nino links to years 1995, 1998, 2003, 2005 and 2007. There is good reason for this. If one looks at Pacific and Atlantic water temperatures as a whole, one sees the close resemblance to the years 2005 and 1998, though 1998 was still in a stronger El Nino than now. However, the Atlantic, in both cases, was like a bathtub early and already eastern Pacific water temperatures are down to normal and heading below. The Nino 3.4 area should follow.

The dirty little secret is it is not as wet over the nation between the Rockies and the Appalachians as portrayed, it will take two weeks of dry weather to take soil moisture to normal in many places as once into the Plains the winter was more snowy than wet. Of course, that is a different story in the Northeast. But the summer forecast, though perhaps off to a slow start relatively speaking, looks to be a much hotter look than last year, especially late. While not willing to go all the way to the extremes of 2007, there are some very heavy hitters on the field with 2007 and 1988 to mention a couple, as well as 1966. The graphic will match the relatively benign NOAA idea for the July-September period versus the analogs.

Something else. While never that big a fan of solar cycles, the 11-year cycle coming off an El Nino has an impressive look that cannot be ignored. In three of these years, 1966, 1977 and 1988, an El Nino had just occurred. In 1988, it went right to the La Nina, something I suspect will happen this year, and a brutal period of summer weather ensued. In fact, it was the summer of James Hansen testifying that the Earth was about to burn up.

Modeling is in opposite camps with the summer, with the JMA and European having outstanding warm summers for much of the nation, the CFS and Beijing models cold.

My take is that this will be a very different summer/hurricane couplet from last year, where we had a non-summer temperature-wise, except for Texas in the early to midsummer and then the non-hurricane season. While I did not correctly call the Texas heat early, I did correctly call the rest of the non-summer for the nation and also had the hurricane season pegged as one with virtually no activity in the areas hammered in 2008. My take is that this year we are much closer to 2008 in the hurricane season than 2009, and as far as temperatures, a lot closer to 2007 than last year. While these years ARE NOT the strongest analogs, in comparing the last three years, they are helpful to bring up for this year in planning.


As a disturbing side note on the hurricane season... the water temps in the atlantic are closest to the year 2005 in their set up, and the forecasted pattern in May is one that is almost textbook for the major hurricane season. It should start early, and stay late


thanks for reading, lets hope I am wrong
by joe .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
right now its april 3rd we should be around 48 we are at 74.5 with a humidex of 78.7 been in mid 70's for three days now even with cold front passage temps are gonna fall off a couple of degrees to high 60's or low 70'3 for highs for the week ahead so still much above normal
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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