Comparing New England's floods to the floods of Hurricanes Connie and Diane (1955)

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on April 02, 2010

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The flood waters have receded in Rhode Island and surrounding regions of New England, leaving hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, but no flood-related deaths. The floods were caused by the third in a series of three extraordinarily wet Nor'easters that drenched the region with record rains over the past month. It was the wettest March on record over most of coastal New England from New York City to Boston, and the wettest month of any kind for several stations, including Providence, Rhode Island, and Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts. The rainfall amounts and resulting flooding in many cases exceeded the records set 55 years ago, during the notorious double-punch hurricanes of August 1955, when hurricanes Connie and Diane hit New England within five days of each other. However, this year's flooding event pales in comparison to the 1955 event, when considering damage and death toll. Hurricane Connie killed 25 people, and Hurricane Diane killed nearly 200 people when its record rains drenched regions already in flood because of Hurricane Connie. The single deadliest event occurred when a creek near Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania overflowed, killing fifty people unable to escape the rising water. Diane was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history, until it was surpassed by Hurricane Betsy in 1965. Accounting for inflation, Diane was the 16th costliest hurricane in U.S. history, with total damages of $7 billion (2004 USD.)


Figure 1. Total rainfall from hurricanes Connie and Diane in 1995. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Observed precipitation for the month of March 2010. Image credit: NOAA.

Severe weather today for Texas, Arkansas, and surrounding states
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has designated portions of Texas and surrounding states as being at "slight" risk of severe weather today, as a strong springtime storm sweeps through the region. Check out the blog of our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, to get the details of this potential severe weather episode, which may bring damaging winds, hail, and possible tornadoes to the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex this afternoon.

Portlight shipping 30,000 pounds of rice to Haiti
Portlight.org continues to work hard to get food and medical supplies into the earthquake zone in Haiti. Their latest effort is a shipment of 30,000 pounds of rice and 20,000 pounds of other supplies, mostly medical equipment, that has been loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew. The schooner is laying in Miami, fully loaded, waiting for a decrease in the easterly trade winds. These trade winds will blow at 10 - 20 knots over the next few days, thanks to the clockwise circulation of air around a high pressure system located just east of the Florida coast. According to the latest run of the GFS model, as visualized using our wundermap with the model map layer turned on, the high will slowly move eastward over the next week, and the easterly trade winds will finally die down by Thursday, allowing the Halie and Mathew to set sail for Hispaniola. Please visit the Portlight.org web site to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 3. Some of the 30,000 pounds of rice that has been loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew.

Jeff Masters

Rhode Island Flooding@ Newport # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
Rhode Island Flooding@ Newport # 9

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Midwest has several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in effect:
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pay back for warm temps
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
DBZ exceeding 70
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Storm near Sheridan, Illinois is picking up a large hail core. Looks like a pretty nasty cell.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141


Storm W5, looks pretty good.
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333. xcool
mmm
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I am in the vicinity of the midwest storms, if something severe comes by i'll snag some pictures.
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high risk zone
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
looks like makings in last radar image of long track f3 or greater gonna zoom in on that zone
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Beautiful weather for West Palm / Lake Worth area the next week. A tad lower than average temps. late in the week. No severe weather. Miami NWS Discussion

Local Text Forecast for
West Palm Beach, FL (33409)

Apr 4 Tonight
Generally clear. Low 67F. Winds ENE at 10 to 15 mph.
Apr 5 Tomorrow
Sunny skies. High 78F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Apr 5 Tomorrow night
Clear skies. Low 66F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph.
Apr 6 Tuesday
Mainly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 60s.
Apr 7 Wednesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Apr 8 Thursday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Apr 9 Friday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Apr 10 Saturday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Apr 11 Sunday
A few clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Apr 12 Monday
Considerable cloudiness. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Apr 13 Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
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2005 had an anomalously warmer winter than this past winter. 2005 had a positive NAO winter vs. our negative NAO winter. We had a negative EPO ridge out west which favored a trough in the east. 2005 had a positive EPO trough in the west which favored more of a ridge hence the warmer temperatures.

2005 Surface Air Temperature Anomalies:



2010 Surface Air Temperature Anomalies:



It's going to take longer for the GOM to recover. Aside from the GOM, we are warmer than 2005 in the MDR.
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Heads up, people in Missouri, Kansas, Iowa and Illinois****


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 45
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IOWA
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF PEORIA
ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLATHE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST
KS...ACROSS NORTHERN MO...INTO WESTERN IL. RAPID RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
DESTABILIZE REGION...WHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE
VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WITH A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DURING THEN EVENING...ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
IL WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
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my station has just alarmed its 85f inside now may have to break out the ac's early

going to eat a roast turkey dinner happy festivus for the rest of us
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Quoting Grothar:



First time it hit over the 80's here in a long time. Hope you all had a good holiday. Nice weather for it. Looks like summer is lurking.
we made it to 76 with a heat index of 79 yesterday today 68 humidex 70 still way above and looks to be till end of week
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The web site for the Iceland volcano is really cooking today. Most active I have seen it. Hope the other one their really worried about stays quiet.
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Quoting Grothar:



First time it hit over the 80's here in a long time. Hope you all had a good holiday. Nice weather for it. Looks like summer is lurking.
YES it is lurking. wouldnt know it if you were swimming in the Gulf of Mexico tho. Its fricken chilly. Happy Easter to you and yours Grother.
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Quoting hydrus:
It went from winter to summer here in Tennessee. Daytime temps went from upper 40,s to upper 80,s in 3 days.



First time it hit over the 80's here in a long time. Hope you all had a good holiday. Nice weather for it. Looks like summer is lurking.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Uh, oh. KOTG interjected a little reality into the annual "this could be like 2005" party.

Where do you get off using levity here, KOTG? LOL
lol
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Quoting stillwaiting:
happy easter everyone!!!,it'll be the end of may before the entire gom is above 80, imo
yep and a higher in lat severe weather occurences as well lack of heat in gom is surpressing any extensive severe weather along lower gulf coast states it appears if current setup remains main areas for this years severe threat will be mid high plains east across lower lakes ohio river valley out to mid atlantic east coast so its a catch 22 if you will
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Uh, oh. KOTG interjected a little reality into the annual "this could be like 2005" party.

Where do you get off using levity here, KOTG? LOL
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Quoting StormW:
Happy Easter!
Happy Easter Storm.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


That's OK, it's warmer on the Cumberland Plateau than it is here in N Central TX. Give it a few days, it'll cool off again, hopefully not back into the upper 40's though!
A front moved thru yesterday, not to cool tho, 77 degrees winds variable at 7 mph, bar 3012 and steady.
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Hey! I'm sitting in NAS airport with CaicosRetiredSailor. We are having a fanastic time sipping Dunkin' Donuts coffee and conversing about everything....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
happy easter everyone!!!,it'll be the end of may before the entire gom is above 80, imo
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Quoting hydrus:
It went from winter to summer here in Tennessee. Daytime temps went from upper 40,s to upper 80,s in 3 days.


That's OK, it's warmer on the Cumberland Plateau than it is here in N Central TX. Give it a few days, it'll cool off again, hopefully not back into the upper 40's though!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Grothar:


Sounds like a good title for a book or movie.
It went from winter to summer here in Tennessee. Daytime temps went from upper 40,s to upper 80,s in 3 days.
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308. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROBYN, CAT 2 (12U)
3:00 AM WST April 5 2010
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Robyn, Category 2 (980 hPa) located at 15.2S 91.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===========================
12 HRS: 15.8S 91.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 16.1S 91.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.2S 89.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.0S 87.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=========================
Deep convection persists on the western flank of Robyn with the mid-level centre displaced down shear of the low level circulation centre as evidenced on the SSMIS 1132UTC microwave image.

It appears that Tropical Cyclone Robyn is battling this moderate [-15knot] NE shear and managing to intensify owing to strong upper level outflow poleward and very deep convection.

Dvorak: DT=4.0 based on 0.9 [white] wrap curved band pattern, MET/PT agree. The estimated intensity of 60 knots agrees with SATCON - latest AMSU intensity indicates a stronger system as well. Some further intensification is expected overnight with the deepening mid-latitude low enhancing the poleward outflow but also likely to increase shear across the circulation. It seems unlikely the system can become more vertically oriented to result in rapid intensification however. During Monday this increasing NW shear is likely to adversely affect the circulation so weakening is expected from late Monday onwards. Motion should remain slow with some shift to the south southeast still a possibility under the influence of that mid-level trough. However, from Tuesday a westerly track is expected, the extent of which is dependent upon weakening/shearing processes.

The cyclone is likely to remain over open waters and does not pose a risk to island or coastal communities.
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Quoting altesticstorm10:

That is a good map, but it disagrees with the more-reliable AOML map:



...has the Gulf way cooler still. However I still think the Gulf and the area N of Cuba SHOULD warm up to normal by early-Mid may or so...but it has to get to work.
I have not seen the Gulf of Mexico this cool since the early 1980,s.
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Still seeing snow for at least 12 hours over almost the entire state of NY saturday night into sunday. It's actually looking worse with each model run, since this time yesterday. Should be interesting if this comes to pass.
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as of apr 2 18z sst GOM 2010 2005 compare maps

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Quoting altesticstorm10:

That is a good map, but it disagrees with the more-reliable AOML map:



...has the Gulf way cooler still. However I still think the Gulf and the area N of Cuba SHOULD warm up to normal by early-Mid may or so...but it has to get to work.


The GOMEX is still much warmer than it was a few weeks ago.
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area of risk today

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
with the CSU april hurricane seasonal forecast due to come out on wed 7th april. It will be quite interesting to see the numbers. with SST in the MDR on the increase and a fading El Nino one would expect an increase the april forecast numbers
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Good Afternoon and Happy Easter Happy Bunny Day! From 8 a.m. NHC Tropical Discussion (Caribbean remains dry; Gulf quiet until mid-week):

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 04 2010


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N19W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 12W-30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SE WINDS OBSERVED UP TO 20 KT. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON GOES-EAST NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INLAND SE TEXAS WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND FOG POSSIBLE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N92W TO 20N97W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE W ATLC AND EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N PROVIDING THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTRODUCES ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS... POSSIBLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE...ACROSS THE NW GULF.
ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WITH IT A BROAD RIBBON OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCING THE SURFACE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 14-18N AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 14N TO 17N E OF 72W AND ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N TO 16N W OF 76W. THE TWO AREAS ARE A RESULT OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL NE WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET AND TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL W-NW FLOW DOMINATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENERALLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR THAT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
...
Have a pleasant day everyone.


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Quoting Tazmanian:
WOW where did summer come from fro the back E it went from winter too summer for this about evere one pass CO



it is going to be a vary long hot summer

Not necessarily! The weather in the NE US is very changeable, especially in early to mid-Spring. It may be 70F in NYC, NY today, and by next Thursday it may be in the 30's and 40's. Early heat waves occur in the NE US every few years, so this is not totally unheard of. It is part of their normal climate along the New England and NE US.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
WOW where did summer come from fro the back E it went from winter too summer for this about evere one pass CO



it is going to be a vary long hot summer


Sounds like a good title for a book or movie.
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WOW where did summer come from fro the back E it went from winter too summer for this about evere one pass CO



it is going to be a vary long hot summer
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Good day all! Happy Easter to all!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
This is not an April fools joke.




LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Morning all. Happy Easter. Lots of pple gone to church 2day, even if they don't normally go lol. Anyway, I'm out, pretty much for the day. Have a great one!
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This is not an April fools joke.


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man the blog is really dead today
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Reminder for all Floridians.. rare pre-dawn Shuttle launch tonight. 6:21 a.m EDT. Penultimate flight of Space Shuttle Discovery and the 4th-to-last flight of America's space shuttle which began service in 1981. Godspeed Discovery.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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