Global warming unthaws warrior mermaids and mermen frozen during last ice age

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on April 01, 2010

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Global warming has unthawed an entire race of warrior mermen and mermaids in the Arctic, scientists revealed today. At a packed press conference in Boulder, Colorado, Dr. Mark Xyzzy of the National Institute for Cryosphere Exploration and Tertiary Research on Yetis (NICETRY) revealed the details of the discovery: "We've been operating robot research submarines under the sea ice in the Chukchi Sea north of Barrow, Alaska this winter, as part of International Geophysical Year studies on the dynamics of arctic sea ice loss," commented Dr. Xyzzy. "Last week, one of our submersibles caught a remarkable video of a warrior mermaid, armed with a trident, riding past the submarine on the back of a narwhal. We were able to track the mermaid to her home--an underwater merfolk city at the bottom of the Chukchi Sea. The city had been thawed out in 2005 by warm water currents invading the Arctic due to global warming. These mermaids and mermen had been frozen into the underwater permafrost since the onset of the last ice age, 115,000 years ago. We undertook immediate efforts to establish communications with the merfolk, by sending in divers with underwater writing boards who were able to work out a simple symbol-based language. We learned that the Chukchi Sea merfolk are at war with a tribe of rival merfolk in the Greenland Sea. The two tribes have been fighting a heated underwater battle for dominance of the Arctic Ocean ever since global warming thawed out both tribes in 2005. It is the explosions from their undersea battles that have been the dominant cause of arctic sea ice loss since 2005, not global warming, as had been previously assumed. A team of experienced United Nations negotiators is now in the Arctic, attempting to broker a truce between the rivals and save the arctic sea ice from further destruction."


Figure 1. Merfolk negotiator Urgok Nzgradborkan and an exhausted U.N. diplomat take a break after a grueling all-night round of peace talks.

Critics of climate change science immediately pounced upon the news to unleash a new barrage of criticism against the National Intergovernmental and Territorial Panel to Investigate Climate Change (NITPICC). "The computer climate models used by the NITPICC utterly failed to anticipate the record loss of arctic sea ice due to underwater explosions from merfolk battles," commented spokesman Markoff Chaney of the Very Competitive Free Enterprise Institute. The Institute maintains of staff of top-notch scientists who swear that their funding from the fossil fuel industry does not affect the objectivity of their science. "This new "mermaid-gate" scandal proves that we can't trust climate models to say diddly-squat that's right about global warming, nah-nah-na-nah-nah!" taunted Chaney.

The head of NITPICC, Dr. R. J. Donteventrytopronouncemylastname, conceded that his organization had some work to do. "We're working very hard to incorporate the effect of underwater explosions from merfolk sea battles into the NITPICC models," said Dr. Donteventrytopronouncemylastname. "We've also begun to explore the impacts on sea ice should other denizens of the Arctic unthaw. For instance, the possibility exists that plesiosaurs from the time of the dinosaurs may be frozen in the underwater arctic permafrost. Should global warming thaw out these great leviathans of the deep, the turbulence from their swimming motions could cause significant cracking and breakup of the sea ice. We now have a new plesiosaur parameterization module built into our top models to account for this possibility."

Dr. Xyzzy of NICETRY commented, "I applaud NITPICC's efforts to incorporate their Underwater Merfolk Battle Module and Plesiosaur Parameterization Module into the climate models. However, I caution that they might also need to build modules to simulate the effects of astrology, thermography, ice-nine, and the warming effect of hot air coming out of Washington politicians, before critics of the NITPICC models will be satisfied."

April Fools!

Internet radio appearance today
I'll be appearing with San Francisco-based wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche on The Daily Downpour Internet radio show at 4:20 pm EDT today, to talk about weather, hurricanes, and climate change. There will not be the opportunity to call in today. No foolin'!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:
Seasonal changes will start to begin in earnest though this month. Notice how much farther north the 200mb 30-knot wind isotach is by mid-April, indicating the subtropical jet beginning to retreat northward for the coming summer, and the equatorial ridge beginning to expand northward in its wake.

GFS 0-hour Initial Conditions 200mb heights/winds:



GFS 384-hour 16-day Forecast 200mb heights/winds:



Looks like the winds of change are blowin'...
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Seasonal changes will start to begin in earnest though this month. Notice how much farther north the 200mb 30-knot wind isotach is by mid-April, indicating the subtropical jet beginning to retreat northward for the coming summer, and the equatorial ridge beginning to expand northward in its wake.

GFS 0-hour Initial Conditions 200mb heights/winds:



GFS 384-hour 16-day Forecast 200mb heights/winds:


Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:


Only one problem with that....it's baroclinic =)

12z GFS 336-hour 850mb heights/winds/temp:


I was going to suggest that it was a cut-off low, but you beat me to it. Also, water temps in the GOM are WAAAAAAAAY too low for anything to get rolling right now.
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Quoting ryang:
Not sure if this was posted, but the GFS shows something forming in the NW Caribbean and southern GOM around mid-month.




And the posting of 15-day out GFS runs begins. A new record for being early this year.
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Quoting ryang:
Not sure if this was posted, but the GFS shows something forming in the NW Caribbean and southern GOM around mid-month.





Only one problem with that....it's baroclinic =)

12z GFS 336-hour 850mb heights/winds/temp:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting jeffs713:

Just think of them ordering it.

"Hi.Yes,IwouldlikeaPlentatripleexpressomochasoylatte.Thankyou!"


hahaha yeah, that would be hillarious! especially since I currently work at a cafe :P
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah me too

Just think of them ordering it.

"Hi.Yes,IwouldlikeaPlentatripleexpressomochasoylatte.Thankyou!"
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203. ryang
Not sure if this was posted, but the GFS shows something forming in the NW Caribbean and southern GOM around mid-month.



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Quoting jeffs713:
I know of some people who would actually buy a 128oz cup of coffee if they could.


haha yeah me too
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Quoting Patrap:
Go Navy



Suspected pirates nabbed after skirmish with US Navy ship

CNN International -3 hours ago

By the CNN Wire Staff

The Nicholas, which sunk a suspected pirate skiff Thursday after taking fire, is part of the US military's Africa Command.

(CNN) -- A group of suspected pirates was captured Thursday after attacking a U.S. Navy frigate in the Indian Ocean, according to a statement released by the U.S. Sixth Fleet.

The USS Nicholas reported taking fire from a suspected pirate skiff shortly after midnight local time west of the Seychelles, the statement said. The Nicholas quickly returned fire and began pursuing the skiff, which was eventually disabled. A boarding team from the Nicholas subsequently captured and detained three people, the statement said.

The team discovered ammunition and several cans of fuel aboard the skiff, which was later sunk by the Nicholas.

Two more suspected pirates were captured on a confiscated "mother ship," the statement said. The detainees will "remain in U.S. custody on board Nicholas until a determination is made regarding their disposition," it said.

The Pentagon is determining its next steps, and the suspects may be sent to Kenya to be tried in a piracy court there, Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said Thursday

The Nicholas, based in Norfolk, Virginia, is part of the U.S. military's Africa Command.

The waters off the coast of Somalia -- the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean -- have been plagued by Somali pirates over the last couple of years. To crack down on piracy, the international community has adopted measures including naval escorts and expanded monitoring.

Last week, one pirate was killed and several others were detained after a private security team thwarted an attack against a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship, the MV Almezaan. A European Union naval force was called in to assist the vessel.



And if one of them happens to have an "unfortunate accident", they would be front-runners for a Darwin Award.
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SHOUT OUT TO OUR VERY OWN SANDCRAB HERE
ON THE WU WHO JUST RECEIVED THE NHC DISTINGUISED AWARD! I HOPE DR MASTERS IS AWARE OF THIS FABULOUS HONOR FOR SANDCRAB!
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Quoting winter123:



Am i the only one noticing florida is missing too? XD


You guys seriously don't know how to properly photo-edit lol :P
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting tornadodude:
new starbucks cup sizes
I know of some people who would actually buy a 128oz cup of coffee if they could.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yea, so for now i'm going to side with the European models though I still do like the CFS's ENSO forecast and its precipitation output. They match up well.


Yeah they do. Now that the CFS's ENSO forecast has trended a bit lower, it's actually pretty bad for an active Atlantic hurricane season. It puts us right in the slot with a weak La Nina during the height of the season.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Texas forgot how to swim



Am i the only one noticing florida is missing too? XD
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Dr. Mark Xyzzy can teleport as well......
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Quoting Levi32:


Wow, that is incredible for only a 1-3 month forecast.


Yea, so for now i'm going to side with the European models though I still do like the CFS's ENSO forecast and its precipitation output. They match up well.
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Go Navy



Suspected pirates nabbed after skirmish with US Navy ship

CNN International -3 hours ago

By the CNN Wire Staff

The Nicholas, which sunk a suspected pirate skiff Thursday after taking fire, is part of the US military's Africa Command.

(CNN) -- A group of suspected pirates was captured Thursday after attacking a U.S. Navy frigate in the Indian Ocean, according to a statement released by the U.S. Sixth Fleet.

The USS Nicholas reported taking fire from a suspected pirate skiff shortly after midnight local time west of the Seychelles, the statement said. The Nicholas quickly returned fire and began pursuing the skiff, which was eventually disabled. A boarding team from the Nicholas subsequently captured and detained three people, the statement said.

The team discovered ammunition and several cans of fuel aboard the skiff, which was later sunk by the Nicholas.

Two more suspected pirates were captured on a confiscated "mother ship," the statement said. The detainees will "remain in U.S. custody on board Nicholas until a determination is made regarding their disposition," it said.

The Pentagon is determining its next steps, and the suspects may be sent to Kenya to be tried in a piracy court there, Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said Thursday

The Nicholas, based in Norfolk, Virginia, is part of the U.S. military's Africa Command.

The waters off the coast of Somalia -- the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean -- have been plagued by Somali pirates over the last couple of years. To crack down on piracy, the international community has adopted measures including naval escorts and expanded monitoring.

Last week, one pirate was killed and several others were detained after a private security team thwarted an attack against a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship, the MV Almezaan. A European Union naval force was called in to assist the vessel.


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Quoting Drakoen:


I think you'll love this one:



I'm not Levi and I still love it. It just goes to show you how unreliable some long-range forecasts can be.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
ALL POINTS BULLETIN, STATEWIDE DISTRIBUTION

ATTENTION: The Georgia Association of Wild Life Liaison Exceptional Events, GAWLLEE, has just issued an escaped creature alert for the South Georgia area.

It seems the Friends of the Atlanta Zoo have informed us that due to the Supercell Storm that came through Atlanta the other day, the heavy rain washed out the corner of one of the creature compounds at the Zoo and allowed the furry little animals within the compound to escape.

The creatures were last seen by concerned citizens along the southbound lanes of Interstate 75 headed south towards Macon, Georgia.

These creatures are not dangerous, however, they are traveling in a large family pack already, and they reproduce extremely fast. Should they get into your yard or gardens they will immediately dig tunnels throughout the area.

Should you spot them in your gardens do not approach the creatures. They usually post sentries wearing masks. Call your local GAWLLEE office for instructions. That is all.

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new starbucks cup sizes
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Somali pirates attack Navy ship.
That has to be an April Fool's Day joke.
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Quoting Drakoen:


I think you'll love this one:



Wow, that is incredible for only a 1-3 month forecast.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it was contantly forecasting warm temperatures over the northern and central U.S. that shouldn't have been there. I'm curious as to whether the model may be having trouble with this particular El Nino episode, as this El Nino came in surrounded by a cold PDO signature in the Pacific, which is probably why it became so central-pacific based. The CFS is so used to a warm PDO environment that it may struggle when the PDO goes cold, which it may do this summer. It didn't peak very high this winter during the El Nino.


I think you'll love this one:

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AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS



Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region


BAM - The Beta and Advection Model

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)

The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: Diagram of absolute vorticity advection and relative vorticity formation in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone.. The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.

Three versions of the BAM model are run with shallow (850-700 mb), medium (850-400 mb), and deep (850-200 mb) layers. All three versions of the model are run operationally four times per day.

Reference: Marks, D. G., 1992: The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC- 70, 89 pp.



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Quoting Drakoen:
The CFS's skill at forecast surface temperatures really comes into question. For example look at this forecast one month before the D-J-F period of this winter and then the observation below it:



That's way off through that one out the window.

It's funny to see how far off models are most of the time and people are relying on them more and more without knowing the science and data going into there favorite model.

Without knowing the nuts and bolts of a model you have no idea how accurate or inaccurate it can be when modeling complex weather solutions.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The CFS's skill at forecast surface temperatures really comes into question. For example look at this forecast one month before the D-J-F period of this winter and then the observation below it:



Yeah it was contantly forecasting warm temperatures over the northern and central U.S. that shouldn't have been there. I'm curious as to whether the model may be having trouble with this particular El Nino episode, as this El Nino came in surrounded by a cold PDO signature in the Pacific, which is probably why it became so central-pacific based. The CFS is so used to a warm PDO environment that it may struggle when the PDO goes cold, which it may do this summer. It didn't peak very high this winter during the El Nino.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Patrap:



Drew Brees made the right choice as well.


true dat
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The CFS's skill at forecast surface temperatures really comes into question. For example look at this forecast one month before the D-J-F period of this winter and then the observation below it:

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Quoting CycloneUK:
Climate change, happening before your eyes

Barring an about face by nature or adjustments, it appears that for the first time since 2001, Arctic Sea ice will hit the “normal” line as defined by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for this time of year.



That's the chart for the 30th march, Here is the one for 31st:





Shush.......be very very quiet. I'm hunting wabbits you know.
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Quoting tornadodude:


thanks,

makes me feel better about my choice of university



Drew Brees made the right choice as well.
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Klotzbach and Gray presentation yesterday at the Hurricane Conference (Powerpoint).
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Quoting Patrap:
Outstanding and interesting Tdude


thanks,

makes me feel better about my choice of university
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Quoting Drakoen:


The CFS T2m has the whole country excluding the northeast and Florida under below avg temps for the J-J-A period. Interesting differences.


We can further contrast the CFS with an assortment of analog years for this hurricane season.

Composite Temperature Anomalies for the JJA period of 1958, 1964, 1966, 1995, 1998, 2005, and 2007:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547


http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=03&fd=31&fy=1980&sm=03&sd=31&sy=2010

Take note of the note in the link :)
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Outstanding and interesting Tdude
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here Pat:


Purdue team wins first place in solar-power category in Shell Eco-marathon


WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — A team of Purdue University students on Sunday (March 28) in Houston won first place in the solar-power category of the Shell Eco-marathon Americas, an international contest for college and high school students to design and build the most fuel-efficient vehicles.

The Purdue Solar Racing team achieved the equivalent of 4,548 miles per gallon with its car, called Pulsar, during the 2010 Eco-marathon Americas. Pulsar took home the "People's Choice Award," as well as winning the solar-power category. The Purdue team also won last year's solar-car category.

Work on the entry was voluntary, and the students received no course credits, said Ted Pesyna (pronounced Peseena), president of Purdue Solar Racing.
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Quoting Levi32:
The European and Japanese models have a warm summer in areas that the CFS has cold in the CONUS:





The CFS T2m has the whole country excluding the northeast and Florida under below avg temps for the J-J-A period. Interesting differences.
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Fuel Efficiency: NEW Standards Announced By Obama Administration


WASHINGTON The Obama administration set tougher gas mileage standards for new cars and trucks Thursday, spurring the next generation of fuel-sipping gas-electric hybrids, efficient engines and electric cars.

The heads of the Transportation Department and the Environmental Protection Agency signed final rules setting fuel efficiency standards for model years 2012-2016, with a goal of achieving by 2016 the equivalent of 35.5 miles per gallon combined for cars and trucks, an increase of nearly 10 mpg over current standards set by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The EPA set a tailpipe emissions standard of 250 grams (8.75 ounces) of carbon dioxide per mile for vehicles sold in 2016, equal to what would be emitted by vehicles meeting the mileage standard. The EPA issued its first rules ever on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions following a 2007 Supreme Court decision.

"These historic new standards set ambitious, but achievable, fuel economy requirements for the automotive industry that will also encourage new and emerging technologies," Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said in a statement. "We will be helping American motorists save money at the pump, while putting less pollution in the air."

Each auto company will have a different fuel-efficiency target, based on its mix of vehicles. Automakers that build more small cars will have a higher target than car companies that manufacture a broad range of cars and trucks. The standard could be as low as 34.1 mpg by 2016 because automakers are expected to receive credits for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other ways, including preventing the leaking of coolant from air conditioners.

"This is a significant step towards cleaner air and energy efficiency, and an important example of how our economic and environmental priorities go hand-in-hand," EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson said in a statement.

Dave McCurdy, a former congressman from Oklahoma who leads the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, a trade group representing 11 automakers, said the industry supports a single national standard for future vehicles, saying the program "makes sense for consumers, for government policymakers and for automakers."

LaHood and Jackson said the new requirements will save 1.8 billion barrels of oil over the life of the program. The new standards move up goals set in a 2007 energy law, which required the auto industry to meet a 35 mpg average by 2020.

The rules should add costs to new cars and trucks. The government said the requirements would add an estimated $434 per vehicle in the 2012 model year and $926 per vehicle by 2016 but would save more than $3,000 over the life of the vehicle through better gas mileage.






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Quoting CycloneUK:
Climate change, happening before your eyes

Barring an about face by nature or adjustments, it appears that for the first time since 2001, Arctic Sea ice will hit the %u201Cnormal%u201D line as defined by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for this time of year.

That's the chart for the 30th march, Here is the one for 31st:





Shush.. its a secret
hmm looks like a hockey sti.... nope..forget that
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The European and Japanese models have a warm summer in areas that the CFS has cold in the CONUS:



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Those upper level charts have a positive NAO signature
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Climate change, happening before your eyes

Barring an about face by nature or adjustments, it appears that for the first time since 2001, Arctic Sea ice will hit the “normal” line as defined by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for this time of year.

That's the chart for the 30th march, Here is the one for 31st:



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Extreme Fire Danger in W TX into the lee of the Rockies today. Folks be careful with your cigarettes and not a good day for a big BBQ/burning trash:
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One of the reasons the CFS may be forecasting such a cold summer is the intensely warm PDO signature it forecasts to develop over the north Pacific, as opposed to the currently developing cold signal that I think will continue into the summer. I don't agree with all the hot water the CFS puts off the western coast of North America.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Drakoen:
Nice juxtapositions juxtapositions Levi

Could you post the 500mb charts from Accuweather as well?


May:



August:



September:




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

But....I'm still pondering how to take the CFS upper-level forecasts over North America for this summer because I'm not sure I agree with its temperature forecast for the central CONUS which shows a very cold summer. Other models such as the European and Japanese are forecasting warm in the areas that the CFS has cold.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
POT!!! As I run out of the blog...tee hee, nice timing! Tell Rob to re-open his blog; it's Spring for pete's sakes!

ADD: Excellent, Dude -- glad you're having fun.


Here is a portion of the latest "Area Forecast Discussion", recently updated! In plain English, this is stating the parts of North Central TX will get a "nice round" of strong to severe thunderstorms during the mid afternoon tomorrow, JOY (NOT)!! This set-up means that the radar will go from nothing, to supercell thunderstorms from "h*&l in about 1-2 hrs. Just imagine the top being taken off a pressure cooker, with 14 lbs of pressure still inside. It explodes, and so will tomorrow's thunderstorms!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1056 AM CDT THU APR 1 2010

.UPDATE...
THE MIDDAY UPDATE WILL INCLUDE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS...
SKIES...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ONLY. THE 12Z
MORNING NAM RUN HAS COME IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECWMF
SOLUTIONS OF LAST NIGHT...BUT WE WILL AWAIT FOR THE FINAL 12Z GFS
AND ECWMF SOLUTIONS BEFORE MAKING A COMMITMENT TO THIS FASTER
MOVEMENT.

ELEVATED STORMS AND HIGH CAPE VALUES LATE TONIGHT IMPLY SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AT
LEAST WEST OF I-35. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH JET STREAK
DYNAMICS...SIGNIFICANT 0-6KM SHEAR AND MUCAPE REACHING 2000 J/KG
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE DRYLINE. WE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LIMITING THE DE-STABILIZATION OF
THE AIRMASS BEFORE MID AFTERNOON....BUT FEEL THAT FORCING WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS AFTERWARDS. 75
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Climate change, happening before your eyes

Barring an about face by nature or adjustments, it appears that for the first time since 2001, Arctic Sea ice will hit the “normal” line as defined by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for this time of year.
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Nice juxtapositions Levi

Could you post the 500mb charts from Accuweather as well?
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More comparisons to 2005...

CFS Forecast for May:



Sea-level Pressure Anomalies in May 2005:



CFS Forecast for August:



Sea-level Pressure Anomalies in August 2005:



April 1st, 2010 SST Anomalies:



April 2nd, 2005 SST Anomalies:




Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.