Record rains and flooding swamp Rhode Island and Massachusetts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:58 PM GMT on March 31, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Record rains from a slow-moving and extremely wet Nor'easter have triggered historic flooding in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts, with several rivers exceeding their 100-year flood levels. The 16.32" of rain that has fallen on Providence, Rhode Island, this month is the most rain recorded in any month, besting the previous record of 15.38" set in October 2005. Blue Hill Observatory in SE Massachusetts also set a record for wettest month ever, with 18.79" (previous record: 18.78", August 1955.) Records extend back to 1905 and 1885 at the two sites. The Rhode Island all-time state record for heaviest precipitation in a month was smashed as well, thanks to the 19.62" observed this March at North Kingstown. The old state record was 16.70", set at North Foster in October 2005. Many locations in the Northeast recorded their wettest March ever, including New York City and Boston.


Figure 1. Observed precipitation for the month of March. Image credit: NOAA.

From a historical perspective, river flooding in parts of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts is expected to rival or exceed the all-time record floods of August 1955, when Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit within one week of each other. Several rivers in the region that set their all-time flood heights just two weeks have set new records this week. It's pretty remarkable that we are having record rainfall and record flooding in the cold season month of March. It's much easier to set records in August, when there is much more moisture in the air available for record rains.

Here is a summary of the major flooding occurring, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

* Pawtuxet River in Rhode Island...flooding will exceed what occurred in middle March. Record-shattering flooding is forecast along the Pawtuxet River through Thursday. Records at the Cranston gauge date back to 1939.

* Blackstone River in Rhode Island...flooding at Woonsocket is forecast to be the worst flooding since the flooding associated with Connie and Diane in 1955. However...due to the heavier rains which have fallen below Woonsocket...flood impacts approaching the 1955 event may be realized.

* Charles River at Dover Massachusetts...near record flooding is forecast. This is expected to be the worst flooding since the flooding associated with Connie and Diane in 1955.

* Neponset River at Norwood Massachusetts...major flooding has already occurred...with a crest of 11.2 feet. This crest is well below the record crest of 14.65 feet which occurred in August 1955 with Connie and Diane.

* Sudbury at Saxonville Massachusetts...record flooding is forecast. This will be the worst flooding since the April 1987 flood.

While the storm responsible for the rains has moved out to sea, there will be a prolonged period of urban and small stream flooding...which should last for at least a couple of days. To keep track of the flood situation, use our wundermap with the USGS river layer turned on.

Severe weather season is here
Two tornadoes occurred near Charlotte, NC on Sunday, March 28, 2010. One of these twisters passed within a few miles of one of the FAA's high-resolution TDWR Doppler radars. Our tornado expert, Dr. Rob Carver, has written an excellent post showing high-resolution images and animations of this tornado.

I'll have a new post on April Fool's Day.
Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 118 - 68

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

118. Levi32
1:23 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting SevereHurricane:


What model might that be?


I know where he got it lol....

CFS 1560-hour forecast everyone on the SE coast better prepare! Lol.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
117. bappit
1:20 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Levi, I like it when you post links to the source of your graphics. I noticed you did that in post 112 except for some. Posting the actual links will help your fellow bloggers and cut down on the number of times you have to post what they can look up themselves.

Just a suggestion. Have a nice day.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6093
116. Chucktown
1:20 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
JB is forecasting Florida as the center point for landfalling storms. No one on here wants to admit this but based on what I'm seeing I can see where he is right. Indications are that a low is going to come off Panama and move north and then become better organized before affecting Florida come late May. To all the nay sayers out there the water temps in gulf around Florida will be near 80 come late May. 85 to 90 degree heat will warm the ocean temps pretty good over the coming weeks. May historically can have the hottest temps of the year in Florida. We can on occassion hit 95 to 100 in May for extended periods before the rainy season sets in.


Please stop with these insane forecasts. It is the last day of March and you have the audacity to tell everyone that a low will form off the coast of Panama in late May and effect Florida. I am a TV meteorologist and am hoping to get the 7 day forecast at least halfway right. You constantly berate this blog with outlandish forcasts about severe weather and hurricane predictions. Give it a rest.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1776
115. SevereHurricane
1:19 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
JB is forecasting Florida as the center point for landfalling storms. No one on here wants to admit this but based on what I'm seeing I can see where he is right. Indications are that a low is going to come off Panama and move north and then become better organized before affecting Florida come late May. To all the nay sayers out there the water temps in gulf around Florida will be near 80 come late May. 85 to 90 degree heat will warm the ocean temps pretty good over the coming weeks. May historically can have the hottest temps of the year in Florida. We can on occassion hit 95 to 100 in May for extended periods before the rainy season sets in.


What model might that be?
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
114. Levi32
1:19 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
JB is forecasting Florida as the center point for landfalling storms. No one on here wants to admit this but based on what I'm seeing I can see where he is right. Indications are that a low is going to come off Panama and move north and then become better organized before affecting Florida come late May. To all the nay sayers out there the water temps in gulf around Florida will be near 80 come late May. 85 to 90 degree heat will warm the ocean temps pretty good over the coming weeks. May historically can have the hottest temps of the year in Florida. We can on occassion hit 95 to 100 in May for extended periods before the rainy season sets in.


What is this Panama low you keep talking about....where are you seeing this...the CFS? Lol. We don't need to be concerned about a model run predicting a tropical storm 2 months away.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
113. Jeff9641
1:11 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
JB is forecasting Florida as the center point for landfalling storms. No one on here wants to admit this but based on what I'm seeing I can see where he is right. Indications are that a low is going to come off Panama and move north and then become better organized before affecting Florida come late May. To all the nay sayers out there the water temps in gulf around Florida will be near 80 come late May. 85 to 90 degree heat will warm the ocean temps pretty good over the coming weeks. May historically can have the hottest temps of the year in Florida. We can on occassion hit 95 to 100 in May for extended periods before the rainy season sets in.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
112. Levi32
1:05 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Any updates on ENSO/ENSO maps?




From the new Australian ENSO Wrap-up:

Summary: El Nino breakdown resumes

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific continues to cool.




OLR is leveling off for the first time since last November:



And the trade winds are beginning to resume a normal easterly regime:



All these things point towards a decaying El Nino.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
111. Levi32
1:01 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh, I didn't notice, I got it from MSNBC, that is the one I quoted and the one I did the link to. Apart from that it says "extreme" 2010 hurricane season. Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration, don't you think?


I think "extreme" aptly defines a season of 16-18 storms, which Bastardi is forecasting. There have only been 4 seasons since 1900 with more than 16 named storms (correct me if I'm wrong), so that is definitely a rare class. So based on JB's forecast, he could define it as "extreme" and I think that's an appropriate word, especially since he's forecast 7 U.S. landfalls as well.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
110. altesticstorm10
1:01 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Any updates on ENSO/ENSO maps?
109. bappit
1:00 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


Well let's see!

Here is the answer to your question:

House of Representatives:
Democrats for: 152
Democrats against: 96
Republicans for: 138
Republicans against: 34

63% of Democrats in the house voted against
25% of Republicans in the house voted against


Senate:
Democrats for: 46
Democrats against: 21
Republicans for: 27
Republicans against: 6

46% of Democrats in the senate voted against.
22% of Republicans in the senate voted against.

YOUR ANSWER: THE REPUBLICANS PASSED THE CIVIL RIGHTS LEGISLATION! If the Dems had the super majority they have today in both houses, with these ratios, the civil rights bill would have failed.

Listen man, take you own advice about stepping into time without a hat. Dems were all about segregation. And when it was time to pony up and finally realize that all men were equal and had equal rights under the law, the Dems passed the Welfare Act, literally taking these poor people who had been oppressed for centuries by Dems, and removing whatever motivation they would have to achieve the American dream. They suck on the teet...and Dems remind them that its Dems they have to thank for that teet. Stay lazy. Pop as many kids as you want...the government will take care of you now.

Geez...


4

"Good post."


Jeez Louise, your polictical history is about as good as your climatology.

The southern Democrats were politicians who did not want to be associated with the party of Abraham Lincoln. For example, in BR they had a Democrat representative around that time named John Rarick. A little tidbit on this character:

"Rarick quickly compiled a very conservative voting record, even by Louisiana Democratic standards. According to one scoring method, published in the American Journal of Political Science,[6] Rarick was the second most conservative Democrat of either chamber of Congress between 1937 and 2002.[7] In a period of four years, 1971–1974, the American Conservative Union gave Rarick a perfect score of 100 three times, and a score of 91 once (in 1973).[8] He was also a member of the pro-segregation White Citizens' Council. He often spoke at events sponsored by the anticommunist John Birch Society.[9]" -- Wikipedia

Now Back to the Future.

All the politicians from the south since then with views similar to Rarick are now in the Republican party.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6093
108. MiamiHurricanes09
12:57 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't think so, but it's a little early to make a case for that yet in my opinion.
I agree, but then again we are only about 2 months away. There are predictions of up to 20 named storms which is a lot compared to the record breaking 28 in 2005.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
107. TampaSpin
12:53 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh, I didn't notice, I got it from MSNBC, that is the one I quoted and the one I did the link to. Apart from that it says "extreme" 2010 hurricane season. Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration, don't you think?


I don't think so, but it's a little early to make a case for that yet in my opinion.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
106. MiamiHurricanes09
12:52 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
MSNBC Link: Link
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
105. MiamiHurricanes09
12:50 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


That's a direct quote from Joe Bastardi's hurricane forecast.

Link
Oh, I didn't notice, I got it from MSNBC, that is the one I quoted and the one I did the link to. Apart from that it says "extreme" 2010 hurricane season. Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration, don't you think?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
104. Levi32
12:47 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My 2010 Tropical Outlook:

19 Names Storms

7 Hurricanes

4 Major Hurricanes.

- MSNBC did a quite startling article that said "15 of which named storms would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land."

Below is the link to the article:


That's a direct quote from Joe Bastardi's hurricane forecast.

Link
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
103. MiamiHurricanes09
12:42 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
My 2010 Tropical Outlook:

19 Names Storms

7 Hurricanes

4 Major Hurricanes.

- MSNBC did a quite startling article that said "15 of which named storms would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land."

Below is the link to the article:
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
102. MiamiHurricanes09
12:36 AM GMT on April 01, 2010
Good Evening all!

I was browsing the web and I came across "the sun", lol. After examining closely sunspots 1057 and 1059 appear to be flaring up, hmmmm, maybe something to watch.



In other news, I was watching something online and there was this prediction of at least 1 hurricane impacting Florida, fact or fiction, please hit me back with your thoughts concerning Florida impacting hurricanes in 2010.

-MiamiHurricanes09
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting atmoaggie:

Achoo!

Yeah. We have pollen "drifts" on the ground in SE LA in the piney woods, currently.

Sniffle.


Being located in North Central TX we are so fortunate to get the pollens from everything from A to Z. Yesterday, the Pollen Count was over 3700 grains/cubic meter of air, which is pretty close to the highest we get here.

For me, it's not an issue, yet, I mean, as only certain pollen types bug me, usually in late Spring. Everything is coated with a light green/light brown film each and every day. I feel bad, there are 6.5 million people in the DFW, TX Metro and hundreds of thousands suffer real bad each year!

Today's Pollen Count was just shy of 3000 grains per cubic meter of air:
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785


Sunspot Update - Both Sunspots 1057 in the north and 1059 in the south remain quiet. There is only a small chance for C-Class flares.

Farside CME - A CME took place Tuesday off the farside of the sun. You can see the cloud billow away from both the Southeast and Northwest Limbs. A photo is below and click HERE to view the latest Lasco movie showing the explosion.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting atmoaggie:

About the TRMM product:

"The browse images and data show the global monthly accumulated rainfall [mm/month]. However, the standard products of PR and "TRMM and Others Combined" only include the monthly mean rain rate [mm/hour]. Therefore, we also calculate and include the monthly accumulated rainfall of those products in the data set for intercomparison of those rainfall products. In addition, the monthly mean of "TRMM and Others Combined" were derived from all pixels regardless of rainfall existence. On the other hand, pixels in which rainfall exists were used for calculation of the PR monthly mean value."

And one has to expect that it doesn't see all rain, of course, as it is not a geostationary satellite.

Probably okay for relative comparisons from one location to another and not so good for actual total rainfall.

More details: http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/TRMM/imgdt/L3_data/readme.htm


Yeah....I guess it would do ok for the anomalies, if they are based on TRMM's own climatology, which is only since 1998 so it's not a great base period yet. I've been trying to figure out exactly how reliable satellite measurements are, especially the ones like Precipitation where continuous temporal observation is needed to make it accurate.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting Bordonaro:
It's as if it's "snowing pollen" in the DFW, TX area. On a scale of 0 to 12, 12 the worst, we're at 11.7 today. It's literally "snowing" tree pollen in these S winds at 20 to 30 MPH! Ah, the joys of springtime!!

Achoo!

Yeah. We have pollen "drifts" on the ground in SE LA in the piney woods, currently.

Sniffle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Hmm I'm a little confused now...

The radar estimates that Dr. Masters posted show a large area of 10-15 inch rain amounts through Massachusetts and Connecticut for the month of March, but the TRMM satellite rainfall estimates only show a maximum area of about 6 inches across Long Island and Connecticut, with only 4 inches tops in Massachusetts.

Which is more accurate? I would guess the radar is, but I really wasn't expecting to see this much of a difference between the two.

Radar-estimated Precipitation for March:



TRMM March Accumulated Rainfall:



About the TRMM product:

"The browse images and data show the global monthly accumulated rainfall [mm/month]. However, the standard products of PR and "TRMM and Others Combined" only include the monthly mean rain rate [mm/hour]. Therefore, we also calculate and include the monthly accumulated rainfall of those products in the data set for intercomparison of those rainfall products. In addition, the monthly mean of "TRMM and Others Combined" were derived from all pixels regardless of rainfall existence. On the other hand, pixels in which rainfall exists were used for calculation of the PR monthly mean value."

And one has to expect that it doesn't see all rain, of course, as it is not a geostationary satellite.

Probably okay for relative comparisons from one location to another and not so good for actual total rainfall.

More details: http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/TRMM/imgdt/L3_data/readme.htm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmm I'm a little confused now...

The radar estimates that Dr. Masters posted show a large area of 10-15 inch rain amounts through Massachusetts and Connecticut for the month of March, but the TRMM satellite rainfall estimates only show a maximum area of about 6 inches across Long Island and Connecticut, with only 4 inches tops in Massachusetts.

Which is more accurate? I would guess the radar is, but I really wasn't expecting to see this much of a difference between the two.

Radar-estimated Precipitation for March:



TRMM March Accumulated Rainfall:


Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Donors pledge $5.78 billion for Haiti earthquake aid

* From: AFP
* April 01, 2010 9:36AM


DONOR countries attending a major fundraiser for Haiti have pledged $US5.3 billion ($5.78 billion) for the next two years to put the quake-ravaged nation back on its feet, UN chief Ban Ki-moon has announced.

The tally far exceeds the target of $US3.8 billion ($4.14 billion) over the next 18 months that had been set by organisers of the conference.

"The (UN) member states and international partners have pledged $US5.3 billion ($5.78 billion) for the next two years and $US9.9 billion in total for the next three years and beyond,'' Dr Ban said.

"Friends of Haiti have acted far beyond expectations."

The aim of the conference was to help the battered country "build back better" after the 7.0-magnitude quake on January 12 levelled parts of its capital Port-au-Prince, killing at least 220,000 people and leaving 1.3 million homeless.

The biggest contributions came from the United States and the 27-member European Union.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, co-hosting the conference with Dr Ban, offered $US1.15 billion ($1.25 billion), saying the funds would go toward supporting Haiti's plan "to strengthen agriculture, energy, health, and security and governance".

The EU meanwhile pledged an additional $US1.6 billion ($1.74 billion), with France offering to disburse €180 million ($264.97 million) in 2010-2011 for food and the restoration of government authority.

Some 138 countries, international bodies such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, non-governmental organisations and representatives of Haitian expatriates took part in the one-day conference.

The $US3.8 billion ($4.14 billion) sought by organisers was meant to represent a first instalment on the estimated $US11.5 billion in aid needed for reconstruction over 10 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thankfully, nobody was killed. They were injuries. I can recall a family being picked up in a mobile home and being thrown into a pond. They did swim out okay but one had broken neck.

Few reports of baseball size hail, and 600 structures damaged by that tornado.

The city of High Point did declare state of emergency.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Walshy:
Those were very impressive images from the two twisters near Charlotte Dr.Masters. I was not even aware of tornadoes to my south because of a monster tornado further north in my local station's viewing area.


I live well to the north of Charlotte, closer to where a bigger one hit. A 140mph tornado hit the downtown city of High Point, North Carolina. All in all, there was a reported 6 twisters that hit our state that Sunday night.
It was actually the 26th anniversary of one of the biggest tornado outbreaks in NC that night..

Someone from Youtube captured 1 of the 2 twisters that hit the city of High Point.

Witness off of the interstate captures it..

Link


Below is what one portion of High Point looked like from above the next morning.

Link

Below is another video of some people running for cover in High Point as they capture the pending EF3 tornado. few bad words, but they were looking at an EF3 coming at them its kind of funny if you watch it all.

Link


This last video starts out bad but gets better as the twister develops in High Point. Insane near the end!

Link


I was kind of surprised this tornado did not make it on the blog when a weak one hit near Charlotte did??


Excellent videos thanks Walshy!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Those were very impressive images from the two twisters near Charlotte Dr.Masters. I was not even aware of tornadoes to my south because of a monster tornado further north in my local station's viewing area.


I live well to the north of Charlotte, closer to where a bigger one hit. A 140mph tornado hit the downtown city of High Point, North Carolina. All in all, there was a reported 6 twisters that hit our state that Sunday night.
It was actually the 26th anniversary of one of the biggest tornado outbreaks in NC that night..

Someone from Youtube captured 1 of the 2 twisters that hit the city of High Point.

Witness off of the interstate captures it..

Link


Below is what one portion of High Point looked like from above the next morning.

Link

Below is another video of some people running for cover in High Point as they capture the pending EF3 tornado. few bad words, but they were looking at an EF3 coming at them its kind of funny if you watch it all.

Link


This last video starts out bad but gets better as the twister develops in High Point. Insane near the end!

Link


I was kind of surprised this tornado did not make it on the blog when a weak one hit near Charlotte did??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's as if it's "snowing pollen" in the DFW, TX area. On a scale of 0 to 12, 12 the worst, we're at 11.7 today. It's literally "snowing" tree pollen in these S winds at 20 to 30 MPH! Ah, the joys of springtime!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
88. Skyepony (Mod)
Flood Victims Get Extra Time From IRS
BOSTON (WBZ) ―


The IRS announced Wednesday it is extending certain deadlines, including individual income tax returns, to taxpayers who have been victims of the storms and flooding that began March 12.

The deadline has been extended to May 11 for individual income tax returns, making income tax payments and making 2009 contributions to income retirement accounts, or IRAs.

To be eligible for the extension, people must live or do business in the counties which President Obama declared federal disaster areas. Those are Bristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk and Worcester counties. more..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm talking the end of May.


This year it might be closer to the 3rd week of June. The N GOM is several degrees cooler than normal, due to our exceptionally cold winter in the S Plains and the SE US, into FL.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Jeff9641:
If this model verifies water temps should be about 80 plus in the gulf area wide.


Yep - that is kinda like saying, "If models verify, the sun will rise in the East tomorrow morning."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
This is an amusing story about Hurricane Able.

The story said the hurricane hit Florida (it didn't). And described it as a "small twister" (it wasn't)

Link


They never mentioned once in the story that Florida was hit by the storm. When a word is placed in quotes, it isually is to point out a flaw or even indicate sarcasm, which I believe was their intent. I am sure they did not believe it was a "twister" Even then, the entire article was an example of high-brow sarcasm which was very popular in American journalism in the 1950's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
If this model verifies water temps should be about 80 plus in the gulf area wide.


I'm talking the end of May.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I think it would only be necessary to do something like that when the AMO is in its warm phase, like now. However, June 1st is fine for when the AMO is in its cold phase.

I don't think it is necessary to extend the season at all, since any way you slice it, the season still holds over 95% of all tropical storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
If this model verifies water temps should be about 80 plus in the gulf area wide.
80+ in the GOM during the summer is not unusual. Last year, we had some temps in the high 80s and pushing 90, which was unusual.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this model verifies water temps should be about 80 plus in the gulf area wide.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Sounds about right for a May system. Likely it would take a similar path to Barry in terms of strength and intensity. That would be incredible to have 4 straight years of tropical cyclones in May. They might have to extend the season to May 15th if it becomes much more common (2007 actually had TWO tropical cyclones form in May, Andrea and TD2 which became Barry the next day, although TD2 was not classified while active)


I think it would only be necessary to do something like that when the AMO is in its warm phase, like now. However, June 1st is fine for when the AMO is in its cold phase.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Quoting StormW:


Good! I'm gonna try to post before I have to leave at 5:00. But, while I'm doing that, here is something to ponder...I had a short but decent conversation with Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State) about the upcoming season, and how I didn't like what I was seeing. I told him I like using the ECMWF Seasonal forecast and EUROSIP...and guess what...he also looks at and prefers the ECMWF. All the items Levi, Drak and I have been posting and discussing with all of you, are the same thing Phil has looked at as well.

Not official yet, but he also agreed that the upcoming season should be active.


Phil is great. He looks like 14 year old kid, but he's got a superior mind when it comes to tropical systems. Interesting to get a read on where he prefers to get his info...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thats quite far off for models to be predicting a Tropical Cyclone to form.. and a lot of uncertainty. Can I have a link to these long range models?


Alright you asked so here you go how about a hurricane for Florida's west coast the first of June.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting Jeff9641:
Some of the long range models are hinting at low coming off of Panama and organizing as it heads north come the middle of May. This solution maybe correct as the Panama area has been getting crushed with heavy rain lately. Everything seems to be come together for a active season and it will start early this year. Go focus on Africa if you want to because your wwasting your time this is normal for them the ITCZ will shift north over the next few weeks.


Sounds about right for a May system. Likely it would take a similar path to Barry in terms of strength and intensity. That would be incredible to have 4 straight years of tropical cyclones in May. They might have to extend the season to May 15th if it becomes much more common (2007 actually had TWO tropical cyclones form in May, Andrea and TD2 which became Barry the next day, although TD2 was not classified while active)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Also, Drak, I can't find the page where you got those maps, but the ones I'm looking at, also from the CPC, don't show any anomalies one way or the other over the winter desert north of 10N, which is expected. The 90-day anomalies aren't really that dry, especially in the west.



Climatological for the same period:



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BTW, i'm not saying Africa gets a ton of rain in the northern hemisphere winter, but rather that there has been no move out of the drought over the past 90 days or the past 30 days.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some of the long range models are hinting at low coming off of Panama and organizing as it heads north come the middle of May. This solution maybe correct as the Panama area has been getting crushed with heavy rain lately. Everything seems to be come together for a active season and it will start early this year. Go focus on Africa if you want to because your wwasting your time this is normal for them the ITCZ will shift north over the next few weeks.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting Jeff9641:
From Friday thru the next 7 days after the forecast calls for 85 to 90 with no rain but isolated seabreeze storms may start occuring later next week. This heat should really begin to warm the coastal waters around Florida. I tend to think that we will see below average water temps go by the wayside over the next couple of weeks. This pattern may mean an early start up to the rainy season across Florida. Long Range models are hinting at this and some of these models are indicating Tropical developement the 3rd week of May so get ready.


Thats quite far off for models to be predicting a Tropical Cyclone to form.. and a lot of uncertainty. Can I have a link to these long range models?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 118 - 68

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.