The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:05 PM GMT on March 24, 2010

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It's been a busy past two months of weather and climate change news, and I haven't found time to blog about the research presented at December's American Geophysical (AGU) meeting in San Francisco. That is the world's largest scientific conference on climate change, and the place to be if you want to get the pulse of the planet. The keynote speech at the AGU meeting was given by Dr. Richard Alley of Penn State University. Dr. Alley is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. A standing-room only audience of over 2,000 scientists packed the lecture hall Dr. Alley spoke at, and it was easy to see why--Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker. I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute talk via a very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.


Figure 1. Dr. Richard Alley of Penn State University, delivering the keynote speech at the 2009 AGU conference on climate change.

The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History
Earth's past climate has been shaped by a number of key "control knobs"--solar energy, greenhouse gas levels, and dust from volcanic eruptions, to name the three main ones. The main thrust of Dr. Alley's speech is that we have solid evidence now--some of it very new--that CO2 has dominated Earth's climate over the past 400 million years, making it the climate's "biggest control knob". Dr. Alley opens his talk by humorously discussing a letter from an irate Penn State alumnus. The alumnus complains that data of temperatures and CO2 levels from ice cores in Antarctica don't match:

"CO2 lags Earth's temperature...This one scientific fact which proves that CO2 is not the cause of recent warming, yet...Dr. Alley continues to mislead the scientific community and the general public about 'global warming'. His crimes against the scientific community, PSU, the citizens of this great country, and the citizens of the world are significant and must be dealt with severely to stop such shameful activities in the future".

Dr. Alley explains that the irate alumnus is talking about the Antarctic ice core record, which shows that as we emerged from each ice age, the temperature began increasing before the CO2 did, so increased CO2 was not responsible for the warmings that brought us out of these ice ages. Climate change scientists and skeptics alike agree that Earth's ice ages are caused by periodic variations in Earth's orbit called Milankovich Cycles. "There's no doubt that the ice ages are paced by the orbits", says Dr. Alley. "No way that the orbit knows to dial up CO2, and say 'change'. So it shouldn't be terribly surprising if the CO2 lags the temperature change. The temperature never goes very far without the CO2. The CO2 adds to the warming. How do we know that the CO2 adds to the warming? It's physics!"

Dr. Alley then discusses that the physics that govern how CO2 absorbs and re-emits heat energy, when plugged into state-of-the-art climate models, show that about half of the observed 5 - 6°C natural warming that occurred since the last ice age ended was due to extra CO2 added to the atmosphere. At the peak of the Ice Age, CO2 was about 190 ppm. By the end, it was about 280 ppm (Figure 1). Earth's orbital variations "forced" a warming, which caused more CO2 to escape from swamps and oceans, with a time lag of several centuries. The increased CO2 reinforced the warming, to double what it would have been otherwise--a positive feedback loop. "Higher CO2 may be forcing or feedback--a CO2 molecule is radiatively active regardless of how it got there", says Dr. Alley. "A CO2 molecule does not remember why it is there--it only remembers that it is there". In other words, the fact that higher CO2 levels did not trigger an end to the Ice Age does not mean that the CO2 had no warming effect. Half of the the observed 5 - 6°C natural warming that occurred since the last ice age ended was due to the extra CO2 added to the atmosphere. So, the irate PSU alumnus was half right. The CO2 does lag temperature. However, we can only explain approximately half of the warming since the last ice age ended if we leave out the increase in CO2 that has occurred. "If higher CO2 warms, Earth's climate history makes sense, with CO2 having caused or amplified the main changes. If CO2 doesn't warm, we have to explain why the physicists are so stupid, and we also have no way to explain how a lot of really inexplicable climate events happened over Earth's history. It's really that simple. We don't have any plausible alternative to that at this point".


Figure 2. Ice core record from Vostok, Antarctica, showing the near-simultaneous rise and fall of Antarctic temperature and CO2 levels through the last 350,00 years, spanning three ice age cycles. However, there is a lag of several centuries between the time the temperature increases and when the CO2 starts to increase. Image credit: Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences: Global Warming Facts and Our Futures, originally provided to that site by Kurt Cuffey, University of California, Berkely.

CO2 and temperatures rise and fall in synch
Dr. Alley continues with a discussion of how CO2 and temperature levels have risen and fallen in synch over most of geologic time. But for many years there was still a mystery: occasionally there were eras when temperature changes did not match CO2 changes. But new paleoclimate research, much of it just in the past two years, has shown that nearly all of these mis-matches were probably due to suspect data. For example, the mismatch in the Miocene Era has significantly improved, thanks to a new study published this year by Tripati et al. Another example occurs during the Ordovician Era 444 million years ago, as discussed in a recent post at the excellent skepticalscience.com blog.


Figure 3. Atmospheric CO2 and continental glaciation, 400 million years ago to the present. The vertical blue bars mark where ice ages have occurred. The length of the blue bars corresponds to how close to the Equator the ice sheets got (palaeolatitude, scale on the right side of the plot). The left scale shows atmospheric CO2 over the past 400 million years, as inferred from a model (green area) and from four different "proxy" fossil sources of CO2 information. This is Figure 6.1 of the Palaeoclimate chapter of the 2007 IPCC report.

Is there anything else we should be worried about?
Dr. Alley continues with a discussion of other influences that may be able to explain global warming, such as volcanos, changes in solar output, and cosmic rays. A whole bunch of the competing hypotheses don't work", says Dr. Alley. "When there's a bunch of big volcanos, they make it cool. If volcanos could get organized, they'd rule the world. There might be a tiny bit of organization due to flexing of the crust, but they're not controlling the world".

Regarding solar changes: "When the sun changes, it does seem to show up in the temperature record. As far back as we can see well, the sun is friendly, it doesn't change much. If the sun changed a lot, it would control things hugely. But it only changes really slowly--as far as we can tell. The record doesn't go back as far as we'd like, and there's work to be done here--but it just doesn't seem to be doing much".


Figure 4. Greenland ice core proxy measurements of temperature (top curve) and cosmic ray flux (bottom curve) for the past 60,000 years. The Earth's magnetic field weakened by 90% 40,000 years ago, for a period of about 1,000 years, but there was no change seen in the temperatures in Greenland.

Regarding cosmic rays: "The sun doesn't change much, but the sun modulates the cosmic rays, the cosmic rays modulate the clouds, the clouds modulate the temperature, and so the sun is amplified hugely. It's really interesting hypothesis, there's really good science to be done on this, but there's reason to think its a fine-tuning knob". He goes on to show an ice core example from a period 40,000 years ago (Figure 4) where the Earth magnetic field had near-zero strength for hundreds of years. This allowed a massive flux of cosmic rays to penetrate to the Earth's surface, creating a huge spike in ice core Beryllium-10, a radionuclide made by cosmic rays. If cosmic rays were important to climate, we would expect to see a corresponding major swing in temperature, but the ice core shows no change during the period of enhanced cosmic ray bombardment 40,000 years ago. "We had a big cosmic ray signal, and the climate ignores it", Dr. Alley comments.

How sensitive is climate to a doubling of CO2?
The IPCC report talks extensively about computer climate models' calculations of "climate sensitivity"--how much Earth's climate would warm if CO2 doubled from pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm, to 560 ppm (we're currently at 390 ppm). A mid-range number from the 2007 IPCC report often used by climatologists is that the climate sensitivity is 3°C for a doubling of CO2. Dr. Alley takes a look at what paleoclimate has to say about the climate sensitivity to CO2. "The models actually do pretty well when you compare them to the past. The best fit is 2.8°C.

Dr. Alley concludes, "Where we really stand now, is, we're not quite at the pound on the table, this story is very clearly not done. But an increasing body of science indicates that CO2 has been the most important controller of global average climate of the Earth."

I'll have a new post Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST Sunday 28 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to
Milingimbi.

At 6:30 pm CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 1 was estimated to be 95
kilometres south southwest of Nhulunbuy and 100 kilometres north of Alyangula.

The cyclone is currently stationary on the coast near CAPE SHIELD and is
expected to move further inland on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between NHULUNBUY and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE EYLANDT. GALES may extend
north to ELCHO ISLAND and west to MILINGIMBI and MANINGRIDA late Monday if the
system takes a more northerly track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today and Monday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the
eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today and Monday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 6:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 136.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... nearly stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 110 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1

.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Sunday 28 March.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

Looking at the TC Paul info, I am once again amazed at how potent that area along the north coast of Australia is for developing cyclones. It's really amazing to see storms coalesce and strengthen when their centres are only a few miles from the coast.... I don't think we have many examples in the ATL, though I think about a few of the more recent FL storms that seemed to increase in strength and organization while crossing the Everglades. Is that north area particularly swampy?

The area in eastern Northern Territory you are asking about is Kakadu National Park also called Arnhem Land. Swampy not really, Beautiful... Hell yes.







But in the wet season, this is what it mostly looks like.

Also home to these.

Images courtesy of Tourism NT
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Quoting sirmaelstrom:
@AussieStorm
You and I may be the only ones here! It's after 3am where I am and probably the middle of the night for most of the regular posters. Anyway, hopefully you and everyone else have as little impact from Cyclone Paul as possible. I'm not aware as to how often Australians have to deal with cyclones, I'll admit; We have more than our share of them in Florida though. My prayers are with you.

Edit: Maybe I'm the only one here...Time for bed.

Sorry i was watching the Formula 1 race from Melbourne, and it was typical Melbourne weather too, beautiful one day, raining the next.
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843. pottery 1:27 PM CDT on March 27, 2010
Hi pottery. I'm sorry to hear about the drought and forest destruction. We here in swampy SE Texas were put on a fire warning last summer. Very rare for the humidity to be that low here. Then when we finally started getting the rain it hasn't really stopped yet. Our local river, with the exception of about 2 days last week, has been at flood stage since last October. It always seems feast or famine here.

Our forests and vegetation have taken a beating due to the salt and winds from the hurricanes of late. There is tons of fuel out there. And you wouldn't believe the number of people I see flicking their cigarettes out of car windows, burning trash, BBQing...whether we're under a burn ban or not. It truly is sad.

We don't face the same challenges that your homeland does. We are very flat. I'm probably 20 miles from the coast and am at 13ft elevation. And our ecology has changed due to a different natural disaster than yours. But we have different birds, fish, animals, plants because of the changing tree canopy and salt water intrusion. It is amazing how fast your world can change. All of this change has happened in the last five years. A snap of the geological fingers. As you know these disasters are terrible. And if there's a chance that anything can make them worse or more widespread I can't imagine any sane person taking that chance. The apathy that some people show towards their world now or in the future does sadden me indeed.

I guess all we can do is try to educate and keep plugging along. I hope the people in your area learn to live safely and learn it in time to prevent even worse from happening. Unfortunately, even after three hurricanes in as many years, some didn't heed the warnings to leave for Ike. And what happened to them is the saddest of all. I wish I knew what to do. :(

Well hope y'all and everyone in the Caribbean get the rain you need soon. And hopefully its the slow and steady kind.
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@AussieStorm
You and I may be the only ones here! It's after 3am where I am and probably the middle of the night for most of the regular posters. Anyway, hopefully you and everyone else have as little impact from Cyclone Paul as possible. I'm not aware as to how often Australians have to deal with cyclones, I'll admit; We have more than our share of them in Florida though. My prayers are with you.

Edit: Maybe I'm the only one here...Time for bed.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Sunday 28 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to
Milingimbi.

At 3:30 pm CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 1 was estimated to be 90
kilometres south southwest of Nhulunbuy and 105 kilometres north northeast of
Alyangula.

The cyclone is currently stationary on the coast near Cape Shield, and is
expected to move further inland on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between NHULUNBUY and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE EYLANDT. GALES may extend
north to ELCHO ISLAND and west to MILINGIMBI and MANINGRIDA late Monday if the
system takes a more northerly track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today and Monday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the
eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today and Monday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 136.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... nearly stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Sunday 28 March.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
962.
OK. Skimmed through the paper, but C'mon...Does anybody here really believe that as little as an additional 12ppm of CO₂ will cause the Greenland Ice Sheet to collapse? I'm not trying to start an argument here, I just want to know if anyone—AGW proponents or skeptics—believe that that the lower end of that claim is even reasonable.

The specific claim for the low end 400ppm range seems to be on pg 261 (28th page of the pdf) although I admit I didn't have time to read the whole paper. If anyone wants to offer their opinion I would be interested in hearing it.
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Evening all.

Looking at the TC Paul info, I am once again amazed at how potent that area along the north coast of Australia is for developing cyclones. It's really amazing to see storms coalesce and strengthen when their centres are only a few miles from the coast.... I don't think we have many examples in the ATL, though I think about a few of the more recent FL storms that seemed to increase in strength and organization while crossing the Everglades. Is that north area particularly swampy?
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Quoting winter123:

I knew it was I something. 2004 was back when i watched Joe Bastardi's video daily because it was free. Ivan set a record for furthest south on record in the atlantic, if I recall correctly.

Yes, Ivan was the furthest south a hurricane acquired major hurricane status in the Atlantic Basin.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


A CAPE of 2000 is not really severe but, we might get a boomer. I don't see a real threat of tornado either. If the sun gets up and is cloud free in areas before the front domes through the threat will become greater!
Tampa Spin if you are still up , have you folks down there had any severe weather outbreaks during the winter?? Up here in N. Fla. it has been real quiet. Al that cold GOM water has promoted a stable marine layer as these gulf Lows and fronts have moved through.i just wanted to know if Central and S. Fla. has had more instability to work with........
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Part five of Episode 10.

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3419
962. Skyepony

Any CO2 level.

CO2 does not cause ice sheets to collapse.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3419
962. Skyepony (Mod)
What CO2 level would cause the Greenland ice sheet to collapse?

A matter of concern is the potential instability of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. If the Greenland ice sheet was to completely collapse, it would contribute as much as 7 metres sea level rise. Similarly, the West Antarctic ice sheet would contribute around 6 metres sea level rise. East Antarctica would contribute 70 metres of sea level rise but is less prone to collapse. Consequently, how these ice sheets respond to warming temperatures is a crucial area of research. A new paper (Stone 2010) has been published that estimates that the CO2 level that will lead to collapse of the Greenland ice sheet is between 400 to 560 parts per million (ppm). At our current rate, we should pass 400 ppm within 10 years.
more here..

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961. xcool


Link


2010 National Hurricane Conference LIVE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15707
960. Skyepony (Mod)
The animation below, produced by CU-Boulder's Wahr, depicts the spread of ice loss into northwest Greenland observed by GRACE from 2003 through 2009. The shift in the color spectrum beginning with turquoise and ending in black over the seven-year time span shows the decreasing mass of ice relative to 2003. Courtesy John Wahr, University of Colorado.


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959. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL, CATEGORY 1 (11U)
2:00 PM CST March 28 2010
=================================

At 12:30 pm CST, Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 1 (994 hPa) located at 13.0S 136.5E or 95 kms south southwest of Nhulunbuy and 100 kms north of Alyangula has 10 minutes sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

The cyclone is expected to intensify slightly before it moves inland between CAPE SHIELD and ALYANGULA on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced between NHULUNBUY and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE EYLANDT. GALES may extend west to MILINGIMBI and MANINGRIDA late Monday if the system takes a more northerly track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING today and Monday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises in the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts today and Monday.


Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to Milingimbi
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
958. Skyepony (Mod)
Geophysical Research Letters, 37 (2010) L06501; doi: 10.1029/2010GL042460.


Spread of ice mass loss into northwest Greenland observed by GRACE and GPS
Spread of ice mass loss into northwest Greenland observed by GRACE and GPS


Shfaqat Abbas Khan (DTU Space, Department of Geodesy, National Space Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark), John Wahr (Department of Physics and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, U.S.A.), Michael Bevis (School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, U.S.A.), Isabella Velicogna (Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, U.S.A.) and Eric Kendrick (School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, U.S.A.)


Abstract


Greenland's main outlet glaciers have more than doubled their contribution to global sea level rise over the last decade. Recent work has shown that Greenland's mass loss is still increasing. Here we show that the ice loss, which has been well-documented over southern portions of Greenland, is now spreading up along the northwest coast, with this acceleration likely starting in late 2005. We support this with two lines of evidence. One is based on measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity mission, launched in March 2002. The other comes from continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements from three long-term sites on bedrock adjacent to the ice sheet. The GRACE results provide a direct measure of mass loss averaged over scales of a few hundred km. The GPS data are used to monitor crustal uplift caused by ice mass loss close to the sites. The GRACE results can be used to predict crustal uplift, which can be compared with the GPS data. In addition to showing that the northwest ice sheet margin is now losing mass, the uplift results from both the GPS measurements and the GRACE predictions show rapid acceleration in southeast Greenland in late 2003, followed by a moderate deceleration in 2006. Because that latter deceleration is weak, southeast Greenland still appears to be losing ice mass at a much higher rate than it was prior to fall 2003. In a more general sense, the analysis described here demonstrates that GPS uplift measurements can be used in combination with GRACE mass estimates to provide a better understanding of ongoing Greenland mass loss; an analysis approach that will become increasingly useful as long time spans of data accumulate from the 51 permanent GPS stations recently deployed around the edge of the ice sheet as part of the Greenland GPS Network (GNET).


Received 10 January 2010; accepted 18 February 2010; published 19 March 2010.


Citation: Khan, S. A., J. Wahr, M. Bevis, I. Velicogna & E. Kendrick (2010), Spread of ice mass loss into northwest Greenland observed by GRACE and GPS, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06501; doi: 10.1029/2010GL042460.

Link: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010GL042460.shtml
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957. Skyepony (Mod)
Interesting area that certainly needs farther research..

Even Soil Feels the Heat: Soils Release More Carbon Dioxide as Globe Warms
ScienceDaily (Mar. 25, 2010) — Twenty years of field studies reveal that as the Earth has gotten warmer, plants and microbes in the soil have given off more carbon dioxide. So-called soil respiration has increased about one-tenth of 1 percent per year since 1989, according to an analysis of past studies in the journal Nature.


The scientists also calculated the total amount of carbon dioxide flowing from soils, which is about 10-15 percent higher than previous measurements. That number -- about 98 petagrams of carbon a year (or 98 billion metric tons) -- will help scientists build a better overall model of how carbon in its many forms cycles throughout the Earth. Understanding soil respiration is central to understanding how the global carbon cycle affects climate.

"There's a big pulse of carbon dioxide coming off of the surface of the soil everywhere in the world," said ecologist Ben Bond-Lamberty of the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. "We weren't sure if we'd be able to measure it going into this analysis, but we did find a response to temperature."

The increase in carbon dioxide given off by soils -- about 0.1 petagram (100 million metric tons) per year since 1989 -- won't contribute to the greenhouse effect unless it comes from carbon that had been locked away out of the system for a long time, such as in Arctic tundra. This analysis could not distinguish whether the carbon was coming from old stores or from vegetation growing faster due to a warmer climate. But other lines of evidence suggest warming is unlocking old carbon, said Bond-Lamberty, so it will be important to determine the sources of extra carbon.
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912. Ossqss

Thank you!

IMO, the best show ever. They should do a new version. Watched every single original episode when I was a pup.

I strongly recommend watching them all. You won't regret it.

Connections

Downloading them all for my kids to watch as I type.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3419
Quoting cchsweatherman:
For all South and Central Floridians as well as those in Georgia, be prepared for possible severe weather to occur tomorrow afternoon as a potent storm continues to move across the Eastern US tomorrow. As the storm continues to move, all these locations will be located within the oft-mentioned "warm sector" as deep rich moisture returns from the Caribbean across the region and the atmosphere becomes more unstable due to an impressive upper level jet and increasing lift in the atmosphere.

It appears that there could be another severe weather threat overnight Sunday and into Monday morning across South Florida as the front being dragged by this storm system coming across the Southeast moves into the region and the upper level jet shifts over the area. Most models agree that there will be sufficient instability with CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values around 1500 to 2000 J/Kg and moisture content rising to around 1.75 inches. This could lead to a heavy rain threat and strong winds. At this time, I don't expect a tornado threat, although in an ideal situation at the right time, an isolated one could develop.


A CAPE of 2000 is not really severe but, we might get a boomer. I don't see a real threat of tornado either. If the sun gets up and is cloud free in areas before the front domes through the threat will become greater!
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

Here's a nice image
I think there might be another cyclone in the Wpac soon

You read my mind, but the ITCZ is still to close to the EQ at the moment, It was up Higher last week when we had that TD for but now it has moved back down to e almost right on the EQ
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Here's a nice image
I think there might be another cyclone in the Wpac soon
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2403
Quoting JRRP:

Ivan
2004

I knew it was I something. 2004 was back when i watched Joe Bastardi's video daily because it was free. Ivan set a record for furthest south on record in the atlantic, if I recall correctly.
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951. JRRP
Quoting winter123:


What is the hurricane in your avatar? Its pretty far south

Ivan
2004
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Does that storm SE of South America (just came off shore) look tropical to anyone else, or is it just me??
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Wow, this storm really formed out of nowhere. Crazy.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Sunday 28 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to
Milingimbi.

At 9:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 1 was estimated to be 90
kilometres north of Alyangula and 105 kilometres south southwest of Nhulunbuy,
moving south at 6 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

The cyclone is expected to intensify slightly before it moves inland between
CAPE SHIELD and ALYANGULA on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between and NHULUNBUY and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE EYLANDT. GALES may extend
west to MILINGIMBI and MANINGRIDA late Monday if the system takes a more
northerly track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today and Monday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises in the
Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts today and Monday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 136.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Sunday 28 March.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


WE NEED LOTS IT IS DRY MY DOOR SWIPE FINGER AND DUST AND SLAT WILL COME OFF LIKE DUST IN VACUME CLEANER


Just looking at long range models, you should be getting better rain chances in a few weeks as moisture continues to build and more energy comes across the Caribbean. I know what you mean though. The Caribbean has been uncharacteristically dry and has been suffering from drought for a while now.
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For all South and Central Floridians as well as those in Georgia, be prepared for possible severe weather to occur tomorrow afternoon as a potent storm continues to move across the Eastern US tomorrow. As the storm continues to move, all these locations will be located within the oft-mentioned "warm sector" as deep rich moisture returns from the Caribbean across the region and the atmosphere becomes more unstable due to an impressive upper level jet and increasing lift in the atmosphere.

It appears that there could be another severe weather threat overnight Sunday and into Monday morning across South Florida as the front being dragged by this storm system coming across the Southeast moves into the region and the upper level jet shifts over the area. Most models agree that there will be sufficient instability with CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values around 1500 to 2000 J/Kg and moisture content rising to around 1.75 inches. This could lead to a heavy rain threat and strong winds. At this time, I don't expect a tornado threat, although in an ideal situation at the right time, an isolated one could develop.
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That's what I'm telling Caymanwunderkid.
It's a comma. Don't pray too hard.
We got off easy last year. But that's what's made drought conditions in the Caribbean. Everything was torn up with shear.
anyway, goodnight chet.
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Quoting JRRP:
Link
this show a lot of storms going to out sea


What is the hurricane in your avatar? Its pretty far south
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Quoting presslord:
Pat...please quit spreading lies...

...everyone knows this was all done on a Hollywood soundstage...

...and that climate change is a giant hoax...

...jeez...


LOL Press. Life is a dastardly hoax. Death too.
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Quoting Chicklit:

El Nino has already become a shadow of its former self.


We still have an El Nino in effect, albeit getting progressively weaker. My response was just when I expect it to transition into a neutral ENSO to weak La Nina. Yet another potentially ominous sign for the upcoming hurricane season.
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940. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15707
Climate Change isn't a hoax. It is real!

Has been happening since the earth formed and will continue until the earth is gone.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3419
Howdy:

I love Dr. Master's climate change posts for one.

On Antartic sea ice this has been established to be caused by the ozone hole. Remember the ozone hole from the 1970's? Nobody believed the scientists back then either and then in the 80's it just sort of showed up in spades. Fortunately folks stopped arguing and the free world, led by Lady Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, came to its senses and ratified the Montreal Protocol.

Yes, we have had a climate related international treaty signed by this country already UNDER REAGAN AND A REPUBLICAN SENATE!

The history of climate change science per se can be traced to calculations of Arrhenius about the dawn of the 20'th century.

Now, for those who don't like the hockey stick neither do I (Dr. McIntyre is correct, at least about the statistics).

This bickering is stopping the US for doing what it needs to do to ensure a sustainable energy future.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Based upon the latest climate model data, expect El Nino to really weaken later in April and going into May.

El Nino has already become a shadow of its former self.
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Quoting presslord:
Pat...please quit spreading lies...

...everyone knows this was all done on a Hollywood soundstage...

...and that climate change is a giant hoax...

...jeez...


That "Climategate" incident disproves nothing about climate science. It may have a shadowy history but that doesn't mean its conclusions are false. The emails show no evidence of fraud.

By the way, research shows that (American) people become more Liberal as they age. :P
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Quoting Chicklit:
Is there a timetable for El Nino weakening?

not seeing much of it now.


Based upon the latest climate model data, expect El Nino to really weaken later in April and going into May.
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Quoting P451:
Good Evening.

Closer to home. Nice little system in the middle of the country. Poised to dump another 4" soaker on me here in NJ. I could really do without it. We've been on blast since the end of last March!



Looks like a new system emerging off Brazil.
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933. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL, CATEGORY 1 (11U)
11:00 AM CST March 28 2010
=================================

At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 1 (995 hPa) located at 13.1S 136.5E or 90 kms north of Alyangula and 105 kms south southwest of Nhulunbuy has 10 minutes sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

The cyclone is expected to intensify slightly before it moves inland between CAPE SHIELD and ALYANGULA on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced between and NHULUNBUY and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE EYLANDT. GALES may extend west to MILINGIMBI and MANINGRIDA late Monday if the system takes a more northerly track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING today and Monday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises in the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts today and Monday.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to Milingimbi.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.4S 136.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 13.4S 136.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 13.3S 135.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 13.7S 135.2E - 30 kntos (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
The tropical low has shown strong signs of intensification overnight as it moved slowly south along the eastern coast of Arnhem Land. A comma shaped area of cold cloud evolved into a CDO with well-developed bands in the eastern semicircle. Position based on a well-defined LLCC and partial eye wall developing on radar. Reassessment of Dvorak yielded FT=3.0 at 2100UTC, based on DT=3.0 from 0.7 curved band wrap. TC Paul was named at 0000UTC.

The broadscale environment remains favourable for further intensification, with low vertical wind shear and good outflow to the south and north of the system. The cyclone is forecast to stall and drift slowly west under the influence of a building mid-level ridge to the south. Intensity is forecast to increase slightly during the next 24 hours while TC Paul remains near the coast, then weaken below cyclone intensity as it moves inland on Monday. In the longer term, an amplifying upper trough is expected to move the system over Gulf of Carpentaria waters where it may reintensify into cyclone later in the week.
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Is there a timetable for El Nino weakening?

not seeing much of it now.
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931. JRRP

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caymanwunderkid, you're going to get rain.
just hang in there.
avoid salty food.
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Quoting Chicklit:

Don't ask too hard or you may get more than you need.


WE NEED LOTS IT IS DRY MY DOOR SWIPE FINGER AND DUST AND SLAT WILL COME OFF LIKE DUST IN VACUME CLEANER
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 14877
Pat...please quit spreading lies...

...everyone knows this was all done on a Hollywood soundstage...

...and that climate change is a giant hoax...

...jeez...
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
anyways guys WE NEED RAIN, WE NEED RAIN, WE NEED RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Don't ask too hard or you may get more than you need.
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anyways guys WE NEED RAIN, WE NEED RAIN, WE NEED RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 14877

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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