Red River rising: 18th consecutive year of flooding--why?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:08 PM GMT on March 19, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota continues to rise, with a peak expected Sunday at the 4th highest flood level observed in the past century. "Major" flood level is 30 feet, which the river surpassed on Wednesday, and the river is expected to crest near 38 feet on Sunday, just 2.8 feet below the record set last year. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for eighteen consecutive years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. This year's flood is rated as somewhere between a 50-year and 100-year flood. Last year's record flood was a 100-year flood. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had eight 10-year floods--one every 2.5 years, on average. This year is the fourth year out of the past five with a 10-year flood. Clearly, flooding has increased significantly along the Red River over the past twenty years.


Figure 1. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: landform factors
According the U.S. Geological Survey, the unique landform characteristics of the Red River Valley make it highly susceptible to flooding. These factors include:

1) A relatively shallow and meandering river channel--a shallow channel holds less water and the meandering can cause flow to slow down as the channel makes its turns, causing over-bank flooding.

2) A gentle slope (averaging 0.5 to 1.5 feet per mile) that inhibits channel flow and encourages overland flooding or water "ponding" (especially on even, saturated ground) in the basin.

3) The northerly direction of flow--flow in the Red River travels from south (upstream) to north (downstream). The direction of flow becomes a critical factor in the spring when the southern (upstream) part of the Red River has thawed and the northern (downstream) part of the channel is still frozen. As water moves north toward the still frozen river channel, ice jams and substantial backwater flow and flooding can occur.


Figure 2. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota through time. The two largest flow rates occurred last year (2009), and in 1997. The projected crest for Sunday (red circle) would be fourth greatest flood since reliable records began in 1901. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for this year's flood: highly unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS also cites five weather factors that can act to enhance flooding along the Red River. All five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 22nd wettest fall in the 115-year record in 2009.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had a November that was much warmer than average, followed by a sudden plunge to below-zero temperatures by the second week of December. This froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. North Dakota had a top 15% winter for precipitation, with the period December 2009 - February 2010 ranking 15th wettest in the past 115 years.

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Precipitation for March 1 - 18 has been 1.41", compared to the average of 0.61".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. High temperatures in Fargo have averaged 6°F warmer than normal for March 1 - 18.

Urbanization increases flooding
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Building levees and flood defenses increases flood peaks
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old floodwall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, proposed improvements to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Precipitation is increasing
As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007). This increase in water vapor has very likely led to an increase in global precipitation. For instance, over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century (Groisman et al., 2004). Precipitation over the Red River drainage basin increased by about 10 - 20% during the 20th Century (Figure 3.) The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century. These are the type of events most likely to cause flooding. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.


Figure 3. Change in precipitation over the U.S. between 1900 - 2000, from the U.S. Cooperative network. Precipitation in the Red River drainage area increased by 10 - 20% over the 20th century. Image credit: Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends (Groisman et al., 2002).

The future of flooding
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely--will see higher and more frequent floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Red River Flood 2006 (mw25)
The water level of the Red River when I took this photo was 47.2 feet, 19.2 feet above flood stage and the 6th highest level in Grand Forks' history. The river is expected to crest at 47.4 feet on Wednesday morning. Luckily, no homes have been lost in the Grand Forks area as of yet due to the flooding.
Red River Flood 2006
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 61 - 11

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

61. Skyepony (Mod)
Atmo~ Posting graphs from data just for the US & a few cherry picked regions of the US does nothing to disprove a small global increase in precipitation. As per the region notice it is forecast to increase in the future, Masters didn't say it already had.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
3 kinds of people on this blog-
Ostriches
Chicken Littles
Those in Between


you forgot trolls.....


And purple hippos...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:


Keep in mind that the NCEP reanalysis data plot you show is from a model. I would trust actual observations over a model. From a paper comparing actual precipitation observations to estimates of precip from the NCEP reanalysis:

While the representation of large-scale features compares well between the two datasets, substantial differences are observed on regional scales. This result is not unexpected since present-day data assimilation systems are not designed to incorporate observations of precipitation.

Jeff Masters


Thanks for pointing that out Dr. Masters.

This, then, would be the more accurate precipitation record:

Climate Division 6, east-central ND:



North Dakota State as a whole:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Ladies and Gentlemen, raise your glasses. A toast to the in-betweens and may BOTH the chicken-littles and the ostriches stop TELLING the rest of us what is and isn't. A chicken-little, an ostriche and an in-between can observe the same event and come to different conclusions. That doesn't make any of the groups more right or more wrong that the others.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3 kinds of people on this blog-
Ostriches
Chicken Littles
Those in Between


you forgot trolls.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Everything is relative and it (effects-causes) often varies from region to region when it comes to weather or climate change....BWE, while more precipitation theorethically results in more moisture/water vapor, I remember hearing something on NPR a few months ago where a scientist was extremely concerned about the future of the Pacific NW Redwood forests because the studies he was looking at/doing clearly indicated that "fog" was diminishing at an alarming rate and that this lack of essential "moisture" in that region, was threatening that particular eco-system...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3 kinds of people on this blog-
Ostriches
Chicken Littles
Those in Between

While I am, admittedly, a so-called "chicken little", I base my opinions (which just happen to match up with the best and the brightest in the field, those that aren't PAID to write papers) on the data, and the frequency of events that are not what are considered common; such as an overwhelmingly visible increase in the number of weather related natural disasters, worldwide.

The ostriches, however, discount all of these events, claiming that it's all part of God's plan, or it's just normal to have, or "it's all part of a cycle caused by... whatever, to have, say, 28 tropical storms in 1 year. They then proceed to quote a paper by OISM (which is, btw, literally a shed with a large garage attached) which refutes all data. After which, protected by their divine shield of ignorance, they put there head in the ground, and, to quote a fellow WU user, "la la la la la la".

Eventually - and this will happen - there will be a climatalogical change so immense that the ostriches can not refute it. It will be a major event, such as the cessation of the gulf stream (for more then 3 days this time), a massive, long-lasting drought in a large area, or perhaps, a hurricane season worse then 2005. Eventually, this will happen, and it will be backed by data from years of study. And even then, there will still be people with their heads down a hole.

Have any of you Ostriches given any thought, even an inkling of an iota of insight, as to what would happen if maybe, just maybe, you are wrong? The AGW is, traditionally, a "conservative" agenda; "the adherence to the old and tried, against the new and untried." While this may be a good approach on other issues, I don't think that the fate of the human race, and of our planet, should be looked at in such narrow terms.

We, as the most advanced species on this planet, are responsible for many of it's woes. If we are the only force on this planet capable of causing these massive, worldwide problems, why should we not be held responsible for fixing them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
54. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Levi32:


Here's a quip from NOAA, yes...NOAA. Unofficial data? I think last time I checked NOAA was the official government organization that handles all our weather data, making it legitimate.

Average monthly precipitation for the Red River drainage area since 1948. Looks pretty steady since 1970....in fact there's no real trend whatsoever since 1948.

If I see contradicting data I won't believe everything I hear on face-value. There is clearly a contradiction to what the good doctor posted on this entry.



Keep in mind that the NCEP reanalysis data plot you show is from a model. I would trust actual observations over a model. From a paper comparing actual precipitation observations to estimates of precip from the NCEP reanalysis:

While the representation of large-scale features compares well between the two datasets, substantial differences are observed on regional scales. This result is not unexpected since present-day data assimilation systems are not designed to incorporate observations of precipitation.

Jeff Masters
thanks dashboard cow man!!!!!!!!

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


No..that would be a Blogger putting Words in my Mouth as you just did.

SO ......


adio to that one
A simple question went unanswered so I interpreted what you did send and selected between the two options. Lighten up...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Wet lately in this one, but, nope, same behavior early in the last century. Tough to blame tailpipes when it stays the same."

Who says it's the same and how was it determined to be the same? Surely you're not just relying on your eyes to establish a trend?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

No, I testify for whomever rings my phone first if the data and modeling supports their point of contention...and only with good, defensible data and modeling under scrutiny by a meteorologist/hydrologist in the other side. Otherwise, I'll tell them that I cannot help them.

Cannot fathom how that relates to climate discussions, though.

It appears I ruffled some feathers. Sorry, Pat, not my intent.


Yeah,...Im going to lunch..as my Shrimp sandwich should be ready round da corner by now.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting NttyGrtty:
That would be a "no"...


No..that would be a Blogger putting Words in my Mouth as you just did.

SO ......Das "Poof" to you.

LOL


adio to that one
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting NRAamy:
anyone know the words to "Red River Valley"?...I think it was in The Grapes Of Wrath movie.....


from Wikipedia

Red River Valley is a folk song and cowboy music standard of controversial origins that has gone by different names - e.g., "Cowboy Love Song", "Bright Sherman Valley", "Bright Laurel Valley", "In the Bright Mohawk Valley", and "Bright Little Valley" - depending on where it has been sung. It is listed as Roud Folk Song Index 756, and by Edith Fowke as FO 13. It is recognizable by its chorus (with several variations):

From this valley they say you are going.
We will miss your bright eyes and sweet smile,
For they say you are taking the sunshine
That has brightened our pathway a while.

So come sit by my side if you love me.
Do not hasten to bid me adieu.
Just remember the Red River Valley,
And the one that has loved you so true.

The song and tune have been used in numerous films. It was particularly memorable in John Ford's The Grapes of Wrath, whose tale of displaced Oklahomans associated it with the southern Red River. In the 1993 film "Tombstone"Tombstone, Dana Delany's character, Josephine Marcus sings it to Wyatt Earp, played by Kurt Russell, to mark what appears to be the couple's permanent parting. It was also sung by the characters of Umberto Lenzi's Cannibal Ferox after they were caught by a native tribe.

ALL TOGETHER NOW

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Wrong about what?

I run with the data..not personal insight.

All the fuss is over something very palatable.

But some cant swallow the info as easily without some Pepto seems.





That would be a "no"...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can predict with 100% certainty that basketball will be played today!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Never said who you worked for nor implied it Benny Boy..

SO ID REFRAIN FROM THAT TRAIN OF THOUGHT.


You testify for the Highest bidder,be it a claimant,or a Insurer..or did the conversation we have in the car in Alabama not occur?


No, I testify for whomever rings my phone first if the data and modeling supports their point of contention...and only with good, defensible data and modeling under scrutiny by a meteorologist/hydrologist on the other side. Otherwise, I'll tell them that I cannot help them.

Cannot fathom how that relates to climate discussions, though.

It appears I ruffled some feathers. Sorry, Pat, not my intent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wrong about what?

I run with the data..not personal insight.

All the fuss is over something very palatable.

But some cant swallow the info as easily without some Pepto seems.

Ive spent 10 Hours with atmo on a personal trek one day,a Mission of Mercy to be exact.

So we can spar easily without beheading one another.



Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
I'll ask you both the same question: is it at least possible that you are wrong? Atmo, I already know your answer (yes), Pat, how about you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hi guys what up



hey pat - 100% sure that photo is from last year, i remember seeing it. It's one of those photos that you remember.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, another late freeze here in the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area for this Spring weekend!!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well..been fun and expected.

Now itsa time for the Friday Fried Shrimp Poor-boy Lunch-o break at Guys.

Have a sweet afternoon.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Patrap:




Yeah,,I bet some stay up late surfing for those ,Quip Graphs..LOL


Here's a quip from NOAA, yes...NOAA. Unofficial data? I think last time I checked NOAA was the official government organization that handles all our weather data, making it legitimate.

Average monthly precipitation for the Red River drainage area since 1948. Looks pretty steady since 1970....in fact there's no real trend whatsoever since 1948.

If I see contradicting data I won't believe everything I hear on face-value. There is clearly a contradiction to what the good doctor posted on this entry.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Yeah,,the Cat fight Queen always shows up with da catnip ,,right on time as well..LOL


Reowwwwwww.....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
CAT FIGHT ON THE MAIN BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!

;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah ..your a bright spot in the Neast today..LOL


Having spoken to Jeff a few times..I can say without a doubt thats not HIS style.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
LOL,can't help but feel Dr. Masters is sitting the laughing to himself.I'll just through in a a quick line about climate warming and sit back and watch the tornado spin up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:


Yes, my oil company overlords...
Thanks for reminding me, drgOdwiThyouRgooFycaPsinYournAme

(I think the implication that anyone is here because either greenpiece or an oil company is paying should be Godwin's law part deux )

/sarc_off

Every time a conclusion is drawn that official data I am aware of does not support, or there isn't sufficient data to support, yes, I will absolutely point it out. Not really concerned about whether or not you like it.


Never said who you worked for nor implied it Benny Boy..

SO ID REFRAIN FROM THAT TRAIN OF THOUGHT.


You testify for the Highest bidder,be it a claimant,or a Insurer..or did the conversation we have in the car in Alabama not occur?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093


Quoting McBill:
I love how some folks choose to ignore the cited literature then try to dazzle us with, um, shall we say brightly colored random graphics. I guess when your mind is all made up, you're not going to let a little scientific literature get in your way.


Yeah,,I bet some stay up late surfing for those ,Quip Graphs..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Patrap:
LOL..yeah we know your angle atmo,...and your true to it every time. I suggest you try reading some of the published data the PHD supplies at the end of his entry.

Graphs are neat but we know why your here everyday.

And who you answer to.


Yes, my oil company overlords...
Thanks for reminding me, drgOdwiThyouRgooFycaPsinYournAme

(I think the implication that anyone is here because either greenpiece or an oil company is paying should be Godwin's law part deux )

/sarc_off

Every time a conclusion is drawn that official data I am aware of does not support, or there isn't sufficient data to support, yes, I will absolutely point it out. Not really concerned about whether or not you like it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
Who're ya gonna listen to?

Him?



or...

Him?


Hmmm, I do know some NOAA guys that look like wrestlers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Here, I'll imagine data from NCDC up to Feb 2010, instead of Jan 2010.



Wet lately in this one, but, nope, same behavior early in the last century. Tough to blame tailpipes when it stays the same.


Mhm....nobody can say that is not data...because it is...from the NCDC. How much more official do you want the data to be Pat? :-/
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
press...stop it.....you're blinding me with science....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Who're ya gonna listen to?

Him?



or...

Him?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leftovers:
around here in e cen fl we got a ton of empty parking lots with no cars a ridiculous rule that needs to be overturned. its anti green


DOG PARK!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Why some willy nilly the PHD's evidence,yet never expound on the reasons why,..always amaze's me.

Isnt there a Against AGW site where you can banter, BS and quote imagined or out of date material and pat one one another the back and sing High Praise to your superior intellect?

Surely there is a site available for those who need to be always in doubt,always critical of the published data?

Cuz the rebounding we get from some is like a broken record.

Yada,yada,yada..

Here, I'll imagine data from NCDC up to Feb 2010, instead of Jan 2010.



Wet lately in this one, but, nope, same behavior early in the last century. Tough to blame tailpipes when it stays the same.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kind of hard to call them 10 year floods anymore,with the increase in developement in these areas,building of levees,the changing climate,Mother nature is going to do what it wants to do,and all our efforts will probably make things worse.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In honor of Dr. Master's post today:

"It's poetry in motion
She turned her tender eyes to me
As deep as any ocean
As sweet as any harmony"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
The MEAT of the matter is here in the first paragraph..

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota continues to rise, with a peak expected Sunday at the 4th highest flood level observed in the past century. "Major" flood level is 30 feet, which the river surpassed on Wednesday, and the river is expected to crest near 38 feet on Sunday, just 2.8 feet below the record set last year. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for eighteen consecutive years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. This year's flood is rated as somewhere between a 50-year and 100-year flood. Last year's record flood was a 100-year flood. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had eight 10-year floods--one every 2.5 years, on average. This year is the fourth year out of the past five with a 10-year flood. Clearly, flooding has increased significantly along the Red River over the past twenty years.

I agree.

Seems that the definition of a 10-year flood up there is suspect. (And obviously should change with the inclusion of the recent events)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Why some willy nilly the PHD's evidence,yet never expound on the reasons why,..always amaze's me.

Isnt there a Against AGW site where you can banter, BS and quote imagined or out of date material and pat one one another the back and sing High Praise to your superior intellect?

Surely there is a site available for those who need to be always in doubt,always critical of the published data?

Cuz the rebounding we get from some is like a broken record.

Yada,yada,yada..

So you don't want to know when the data from the NCDC doesn't seem to support the good doc's post?
*hand over ears, "la la la la la la la"*

Otherwise, I thought it a good post, btw.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The MEAT of the matter is here in the first paragraph..

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota continues to rise, with a peak expected Sunday at the 4th highest flood level observed in the past century. "Major" flood level is 30 feet, which the river surpassed on Wednesday, and the river is expected to crest near 38 feet on Sunday, just 2.8 feet below the record set last year. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for eighteen consecutive years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. This year's flood is rated as somewhere between a 50-year and 100-year flood. Last year's record flood was a 100-year flood. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had eight 10-year floods--one every 2.5 years, on average. This year is the fourth year out of the past five with a 10-year flood. Clearly, flooding has increased significantly along the Red River over the past twenty years.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
From today's Emerg. Pers. National Situation Report:

North Dakota
State EOC is activated at Level I, Full Activation. The Operations Area Field Offices (OAFO) will be staffed in Fargo, ND beginning today, March 19. Grand Forks EOC is also open. FEMA-1879-DR-ND was signed Feb 26 for Severe Winter Storms. The President signed state of emergency FEMA-3390-EM in North Dakota on March 14, 2010 to provide emergency protective measures (Cat B), including Federal Assistance under the Public assistance Program. The JFO is operational in Bismarck, ND. The Operations Section is supporting the SEOC with an intelligence request from the National Weather Service for a UAS (Predator) Flyover Mission of the Red River south of Fargo. North Dakota National Guard activated on Mar 16 to assist in levee construction and traffic control.
The City of Grand Forks declared a State of Emergency to allow the City to prepare for high waters. Flood controls are in place and additional crews, equipment and supplies are on standby if needed.
The Salvation Army has 5 mobile feeding stations in Fargo/Moorhead area and 5 fixed feeding sites where over 2,000 meals were served on Mar 18. Coordination is occurring for PDAs for Standing Rock Indian Reservation.

South Dakota
State EOC is activated at Level III, Full Activation. The JFO in Pierre, SD became operational on Mar 16, and is identifying available housing in coordination with the South Dakota Housing Development Authority. The City of Aberdeen is concerned flood waters may reach the wastewater treatment plant. Eight to ten broken dikes in Turner County are affecting agricultural areas. Initial meetings with FEMA representatives and Tribal leaders were held for the Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe (Mar 16) and the Rosebud Sioux Tribe (Mar 17) and the Pine Ridge Oglala Sioux Tribe on March 18.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


ALways true to yourself,,but not the clear evidence as always.

How non partisan is that?

Drought?

I think you need to get a better source of info atmo

Me, too. NCDC does some weird things sometimes.

But what is wrong with posting 100 years of both extreme wet and dry conditions from NCDC in this context? (I thought changes were supposed to start showing up) This isn't evidence or data?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And specific to west-north central US, NCDC precip for 115 years. If nothing else, a slight downward trend:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
"With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely--will see higher and more frequent floods."

Tough to reconcile against what just looks like noise from NCDC:

If nothing else, seems like a little more drought tendency in the last 10 years.

"Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters."

Heck, yeah. Big fan of that.


ALways true to yourself,,but not the clear evidence as always.

How non partisan is that?

Drought?

I think you need to get a better source of info atmo
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093

Viewing: 61 - 11

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
49 °F
Overcast