Red River rising: 18th consecutive year of flooding--why?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:08 PM GMT on March 19, 2010

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota continues to rise, with a peak expected Sunday at the 4th highest flood level observed in the past century. "Major" flood level is 30 feet, which the river surpassed on Wednesday, and the river is expected to crest near 38 feet on Sunday, just 2.8 feet below the record set last year. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for eighteen consecutive years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. This year's flood is rated as somewhere between a 50-year and 100-year flood. Last year's record flood was a 100-year flood. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had eight 10-year floods--one every 2.5 years, on average. This year is the fourth year out of the past five with a 10-year flood. Clearly, flooding has increased significantly along the Red River over the past twenty years.


Figure 1. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: landform factors
According the U.S. Geological Survey, the unique landform characteristics of the Red River Valley make it highly susceptible to flooding. These factors include:

1) A relatively shallow and meandering river channel--a shallow channel holds less water and the meandering can cause flow to slow down as the channel makes its turns, causing over-bank flooding.

2) A gentle slope (averaging 0.5 to 1.5 feet per mile) that inhibits channel flow and encourages overland flooding or water "ponding" (especially on even, saturated ground) in the basin.

3) The northerly direction of flow--flow in the Red River travels from south (upstream) to north (downstream). The direction of flow becomes a critical factor in the spring when the southern (upstream) part of the Red River has thawed and the northern (downstream) part of the channel is still frozen. As water moves north toward the still frozen river channel, ice jams and substantial backwater flow and flooding can occur.


Figure 2. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota through time. The two largest flow rates occurred last year (2009), and in 1997. The projected crest for Sunday (red circle) would be fourth greatest flood since reliable records began in 1901. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for this year's flood: highly unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS also cites five weather factors that can act to enhance flooding along the Red River. All five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 22nd wettest fall in the 115-year record in 2009.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had a November that was much warmer than average, followed by a sudden plunge to below-zero temperatures by the second week of December. This froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. North Dakota had a top 15% winter for precipitation, with the period December 2009 - February 2010 ranking 15th wettest in the past 115 years.

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Precipitation for March 1 - 18 has been 1.41", compared to the average of 0.61".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. High temperatures in Fargo have averaged 6°F warmer than normal for March 1 - 18.

Urbanization increases flooding
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Building levees and flood defenses increases flood peaks
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old floodwall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, proposed improvements to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Precipitation is increasing
As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007). This increase in water vapor has very likely led to an increase in global precipitation. For instance, over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century (Groisman et al., 2004). Precipitation over the Red River drainage basin increased by about 10 - 20% during the 20th Century (Figure 3.) The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century. These are the type of events most likely to cause flooding. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.


Figure 3. Change in precipitation over the U.S. between 1900 - 2000, from the U.S. Cooperative network. Precipitation in the Red River drainage area increased by 10 - 20% over the 20th century. Image credit: Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends (Groisman et al., 2002).

The future of flooding
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely--will see higher and more frequent floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Red River Flood 2006 (mw25)
The water level of the Red River when I took this photo was 47.2 feet, 19.2 feet above flood stage and the 6th highest level in Grand Forks' history. The river is expected to crest at 47.4 feet on Wednesday morning. Luckily, no homes have been lost in the Grand Forks area as of yet due to the flooding.
Red River Flood 2006
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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Quoting bappit:
Seems like a nice state of fear you have going there.

Ummm, I was talking about all of the pseudo-science that is out there...you don't think I avoid power lines and cells phones, do you? I think those are a little bit worse than the AGW in realism...as is the notion that smoking isn't unhealthy.

Not every debated phenomenon is an accurate one, as you seemed to be implying.
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Quoting Patrap:




Note the Dry Air on the Continent.
ALso note the dry air trying to advance into the inflow..on the Nw side

waning out rain and wind threat in gusts
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55965
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, all those things you listed probably contributed. It was mostly the upwelling that killed her. Nobody anticipated her slowing down for as long as she did. That was lucky for Australia. Like you said though a TS can still be deadly. I hear they are well-prepared for this one though.


This is good news, unfortunately we in America have previously underestimated the power of a Tropical Storm (Allison 2001), and that the true power of a tropical cyclone is not its wind speed but its Rain and Storm Surge (especially Ike, the 3rd most destructive Hurricane ever)
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Ului is gonna make its run to the Coast the next 24.

A New Up cycle has established and well..timing,tide,angle are going to all come together somewhere if the track holds and it comes straight on in near Proserpine.

Those in the Warned area should rush their preps to completion as DayLight is still available.







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129755
Quoting StormW:


That's one thing you have on me...I'm still a hunt and peck guy!


Lol, I wouldn't have thought it! Gives you more time to think about what you're writing though :) More often than not I have to add something I forgot to put in.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting CybrTeddy:
@294.

looks Disorganized to say the least. Either shear, upwelling, dry air or a combination of both combined with the collapse of the inner structure of the system has really taken its toll. Still, a TS has in the past proven to be destructive and should not be treated otherwise in Australia.


Yeah, all those things you listed probably contributed. It was mostly the upwelling that killed her. Nobody anticipated her slowing down for as long as she did. That was lucky for Australia. Like you said though a TS can still be deadly. I hear they are well-prepared for this one though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
The old saying goes: "If it's too good to be true, it probably is."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6155
300

I think that sums it up nicely.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6155
298

You still don't sound like someone who is 17/18.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6155
@294.

looks Disorganized to say the least. Either shear, upwelling, dry air or a combination of both combined with the collapse of the inner structure of the system has really taken its toll. Still, a TS has in the past proven to be destructive and should not be treated otherwise in Australia.
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Quoting bappit:
Snappy response again. I just don't believe you are a high school guy.

I hope you have a good, relaxing weekend.
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Quoting bappit:
Snappy response again. I just don't believe you are a high school guy.


What...I type 120wpm so I must have scripted responses? I just gave you the link you asked for lol. What more do you want from me? It's legitimate, real data.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Snappy response again. I just don't believe you are a high school guy.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6155
HELLO!!!
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Note the Dry Air on the Continent.
ALso note the dry air trying to advance into the inflow..on the Nw side

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129755
Quoting bappit:
Where did those pictures come from? You have them stashed away somewhere on i40.tinypic.com ready to post at a moment's notice. How much time do you spend preparing to make quick posts with snappy comebacks?


Lol calm down....I have to upload them or they vanish, which is why Atmo had to ask me for the one Dr. Masters posted. And I've just been debating this every day for the past 3 weeks, so I know exactly where I need to go when a certain point is made, most of the time. So yes I'm fast lol.

ESRL NOAA Physical Sciences Division
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Maybe you should investigate whether the refrigerator light goes out when you close the door or whether cans in the supermarket actually contain anything??? You sound xenophobic.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6155



IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0135 UTC 20/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.6S
Longitude: 153.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/1200: 20.3S 150.5E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 977
+24: 21/0000: 20.9S 147.5E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 985
+36: 21/1200: 21.1S 145.0E: 110 [210]: 030 [055]: 1002
+48: 22/0000: 20.9S 142.2E: 145 [270]: 025 [045]: 1005
+60: 22/1200: 18.8S 139.3E: 190 [355]: 025 [045]: 1008
+72: 23/0000: 15.5S 136.2E: 240 [445]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
Following a period of weakening due to northwesterly wind shear, Tropical
Cyclone Ului has shown increased organisation in the last 6 hours with LLCC now
under deep convection.

Dvorak analysis gave an ambiguous curbed band of 0.9 wrap yielding DT of 3.5.
MET of 4.0 with PAT of 3.5. Hence FT/CI = 3.5.

AMSU estimates suggest higher wind speeds are possible. Surface observations a
large area of storm force winds.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track continuing west southwest
today and crossing the coast between Ayr and Sarina early on Sunday morning,
steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there is a higher than
normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is based on some development continuing, into weak category 3
near landfall. However models do not suggest further intensification so some
doubt remains on the system's response to shear.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129755
Quoting bappit:
Where did those pictures come from? You have them stashed away somewhere on i40.tinypic.com ready to post at a moment's notice. How much time do you spend preparing to make quick posts with snappy comebacks?

You speak like his ability to refute a statement scientifically is a bad thing ..
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Levi can speak for himself, But warmer doesnt inherently equal moister. Desertification can vouch for that.
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Where did those pictures come from? You have them stashed away somewhere on i40.tinypic.com ready to post at a moment's notice. How much time do you spend preparing to make quick posts with snappy comebacks?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6155
Quoting bappit:
The contentious issues should be what is the best way to deal with our CO2 emissions from an economic standpoint. All the boo hooing on here tries to paint the issue as a highly uncertain issue of climatological science, e.g., is the earth warming at all???? The contentiousness is manufactured, ummmm, like doubt about cigarette health consequences.

...or the vaccination/autism link.
...or actual health benefits of brown-shelled eggs.
...or radiation from a overhead powerline causing mental issues.
...or radiation from a cell causing anything.
...or some buffoon pushing the wrong pedal in a car and blaming the car (happened decades ago, too...well before the Toyota thing).
...or that bottled water is in any way better than filtered tap water.
...or that Fruit Loops passed some health standard, any health standard.
...or that we are entering a steady decline in temperatures and an ice age in imminent (70's)
...or that the earth is inexplicably warming (turn of the century 1900s).

We, collectively, get told a lot of junk for the sake of copy. Shouldn't be a surprise that some of us insist on seeing it for ourselves and when the evidence is tenuous, thus are skeptical.
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Anyone know why the blog is stretched tonight? My neck is getting tired going back and forth.
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Quoting bappit:
Levi, you don't come across as a high schooler in your posts. How can you spend so much time looking up papers and monitoring the blog?


Because I just graduated high school last month....ask anyone I haven't been here since last July. Check how long it's been since I posted an entry in my blog. I have a lot of time on my hands right now until I can find a job for the summer.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting bappit:
Levi posts some graph on here claiming that precipitation is not increasing. Precipitation should increase if temperatures are increasing. So Levi's post is tantamount to saying that temperatures are not increasing.

Now there have been enough posts and blogs on here to establish that temperatures are increasing. So making an issue about precip is, uhh, quite misleading


Not really. A warming world is possible with no increase in precipitation and total atmospheric water vapor. Why? Because mid-upper tropospheric moisture has decreased since 1950, on every level above 850mb (surface layer has indeed moistened due to warmer oceans). There is a net decrease in global atmospheric moisture since 1950:

Global 500mb Specific Humidity:



Global Total Atmospheric Precipitable Water (increase since 1965 but lower than 1950):



So far I have come across no explanation for why the upper levels are drier, but the fact that they are means we can draw conclusions about what should happen as a result. If you make me go into detail I will.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Levi, you don't come across as a high schooler in your posts. How can you spend so much time looking up papers and monitoring the blog?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6155
Quoting atmoaggie:
From much earlier:


Aha! So there is a better, more relevant index.
I see an image in Dr. M's post, but it was a temporary file. Anyone know what or can get some cached version of the page?

Sorry, got very busy earlier.
(Where are ya SSIGG?)

Only finding SPI index by month, plotted on maps. Anyone find a SPI timeseries by region (or some other reasonable geographic area)?


That was my fault for not uploading it, sorry.

Here it is:

North Dakota Climate Division 6 (east-central) monthly average precipitation:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
How strong was the 2004 el nino event?
Weak, the 04 El-Nino was the diminishing effects of the 02-03 El-nino.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi posts some graph on here claiming that precipitation is not increasing. Precipitation should increase if temperatures are increasing. So Levi's post is tantamount to saying that temperatures are not increasing.

Now there have been enough posts and blogs on here to establish that temperatures are increasing. So making an issue about precip is, uhh, quite misleading
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6155
The contentious issues should be what is the best way to deal with our CO2 emissions from an economic standpoint. All the boo hooing on here tries to paint the issue as a highly uncertain issue of climatological science, e.g., is the earth warming at all???? The contentiousness is manufactured, ummmm, like doubt about cigarette health consequences.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6155

















TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:05am EST on Saturday the 20th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Townsville to Yeppoon and
inland between Charters Towers and Clermont.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cardwell to Townsville and
extending inland of the warning area.

At 10:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
465 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
680 kilometres east of Townsville and
moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Sarina early Sunday ,
possibly re-intensifying to a category 3 system before landfall. The cyclone is
then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 170 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect
coastal and island communities in the threatened area early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Townsville and Yeppoon later
today, then extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday.

Heavy rainfall and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People between Townsville to Yeppoon and inland between Charters Towers and
Clermont should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially
securing boats and property using available daylight hours.
People between Cardwell to Townsville and extending inland of the warning area
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 19.6 degrees South 153.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 978 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Saturday 20 March.

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How strong was the 2004 el nino event?
Member Since: August 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 251
Quoting Minnemike:
y'all post quickly. i got a slow computer, eh. so yeah, Atmo, hope you didn't think I was arguing you. just making comments on perceptions and data. you raised good points there.

Okay by me. At least you are one that can even talk about a contentious issue without the shenanigans some bring in here.
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From much earlier:
Quoting JeffMasters:


The East-Central North Dakota region (where most of the Red River Valley lies) precipitation plot posted by Levi32 shows a pretty clear increase over the past century. Also, you shouldn't compare drought to precipitation, since the plots you are showing for drought are based on the Palmer Drought Index. The Palmer Index uses temperature and rainfall information in a formula to determine dryness. Higher temperatures can increase drought under the Palmer Index, even if precipitation increases. Your comparison would be more relevant if you used the SPI index for drought, which is purely precipitation-based.



Jeff Masters


Aha! So there is a better, more relevant index.
I see an image in Dr. M's post, but it was a temporary file. Anyone know what or can get some cached version of the page?

Sorry, got very busy earlier.
(Where are ya SSIGG?)

Only finding SPI index by month, plotted on maps. Anyone find a SPI timeseries by region (or some other reasonable geographic area)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Hear you on that. Next year the Indepartmental Hurricane Conference is in Miami, hope to go to that if possible.

Also, looks like they may be moving the operational RECON further east, from 55W to 52.5W.


With the earlier watches and warnings the NHC will be issuing this season, it makes sense.
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273. Skyepony (Mod)
nrt~that's good news..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 222 Comments: 39353
272. Skyepony (Mod)
surge~ light blue is 1-2m

sure does take a bit longer for the waves & surge to die down than the wind.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 222 Comments: 39353
Quoting Skyepony:
nrtiwlnvragn ~At least I started the day knowing what day it was.. Totally had missed the Atl/Caribbean/Mexico tour announcement. Wish they were coming here.


Hear you on that. Next year the Indepartmental Hurricane Conference is in Miami, hope to go to that if possible.

Also, looks like they may be moving the operational RECON further east, from 55W to 52.5W.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
270. Skyepony (Mod)
wave impact
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 222 Comments: 39353
269. Skyepony (Mod)
nrtiwlnvragn ~At least I started the day knowing what day it was.. Totally had missed the Atl/Caribbean/Mexico tour announcement. Wish they were coming here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 222 Comments: 39353
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I don't understand what you are trying to say.
i am sayin nothing if he wants to confess i am just tryin to help him along the rest is up to him maybe over the years with all these screen names and deceptions and insults its a way to get some kind of forgivness for what has been done would be kind of interesting to see all them screen names
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55965
I don't understand what you are trying to say.
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started lurking in 2005 with free account then became a paid member in 2006 one screen name is all i have had during all this time how about a list of those 50 or better yet i will give you the list of all banned trolls you check off the ones you were
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55965
I personally have had one other screen name a few years ago.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I don't think you are a troll. You do admit you wish for a busy Hurricane season. But with a busy season, brings the likelihood of many deaths and a lot of destruction. You're still young and don't have the financial responsibility of going through a severe Hurricane. Once you are older and out on your own, I hope your thoughts will change. BTW, you wrote a few days ago, you wrote you have been through more than 50 screen names. I think that must be a record!


50 screen names wow your like all the trolls into one did you ever use imposter screen names during any of the cane seasons

hmmmmm
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55965
Quoting Tazmanian:
this be come EL Nino is weaking do not mean its overe will will be still be haveing lifet overes of EL nino well in too hurricane season so look for a vary slow start too hurricane season this year


Let's hope, but there aren't really any lag effects because this El Nino is reactionary, so if it gets down to neutral by June, it should no longer be having any significantly negative effects.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
So Taz, you are looking towards July-August for our first-named storm this season?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron