Globe has 2nd or 6th warmest February on record; Fiji hard-hit by Tomas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:51 PM GMT on March 18, 2010

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The globe recorded its sixth warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated February 2010 the second warmest, behind 1998. The year-to-date period, January - February, is the 5th or 2nd warmest such period on record, according to NOAA and NASA, respectively. NOAA rated February 2010 global ocean temperatures as the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. February land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 26th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground--February 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 3rd highest in the 44-year snow cover record. For the entire winter, the Northern Hemisphere had the 2nd greatest snow cover on record, the U.S. had its greatest snow cover, and Eurasia had its 4th most.


Figure 1. departure of surface temperature from average for the globe during February 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the second warmest on record in February, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. Both groups also rated the winter of 2009 - 2010 the 2nd warmest winter on record. The record warmest February and winter occurred 1998.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average--in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño--on March 14, 2010, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for all of February and the first two weeks of March. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that have helped maintain the current El Niño have weakened since March 1, but are probably strong enough to maintain the current moderate El Niño conditions through mid-April. Some slow weakening of El Niño is likely beginning in early April. It is highly uncertain what may happen to El Niño at that point, with the models split between predicting a weak El Niño, neutral conditions, or a La Niña by the height of hurricane season (August-September-October). It's worth noting that the last time we had a strong El Niño--the record-strength 1997 - 1998 event--El Niño conditions collapsed suddenly in May 1998, and a La Niña event rapidly developed during the summer of 1998. A similar chain of events is possible this year, as well. However, the El Niño of 1986 - 1987 maintained moderate strength through two consecutive hurricane seasons, and it is possible that this year's El Niño could pull a similar feat. We simply don't have the predictive skill to say what might happen to El Niño this summer.

February sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
February 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of February 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years.

Heavy damage on Fiji from Tropical Cyclone Tomas
Communications are still out to most of the islands in the Fiji devastated by Tropical Cyclone Tomas, but it is apparent that the Category 3 storm caused "overwhelming damage" to the islands that received a direct hit, according to the Associated Press. Tomas, packing winds of up to 130 mph (205 kph) at its center, hit Fiji beginning late Friday. The Lau and Lomaiviti island groups and the northern coast of the second biggest island, Vanua Levu, took the brunt of the storm. Only one death has been reported thus far. Initial reports said 1500 homes were destroyed or damaged and up to 50 percent of facilities in the Lau Group were affected.

I'll have a new post on Friday, when I plan to discuss why the Red River at Fargo, ND is now experiencing a "10-year flood" once every 2.5 years, on average.

Jeff Masters

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70. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting trumpman84:
Part of the reason I have a problem with AGW pushers is this:

Warm temperatures are almost always due to "Global Warming," but cold temperatures can always be easily explained away.

When Dr. Master's mentioned that the globe had its 2nd or 6th warmest February on record, that ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the southern hemisphere land was the warmest on record, no explanation follows -- no mention of the El Nino which likely caused the 2nd warmest ocean temperatures or any other phenomena.

However, when he mentions the Northern Hemisphere having the 26th warmest period on record, he IMMEDIATELY has to qualify it by saying "The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground," because supposedly saying "26th warmest" by itself is unnacceptable.

Why are there no reasons for the warm temperatures, but you go out of your way to have an explanation for the cold? Also, who's to say that the northern hemisphere cold was the cause of snow cover and not the other way around? Who's to say that the cold didn't cause the increased snow cover?


I could have mentioned El Niño contributing to the February warmth, but I also could have mentioned that we are at the minimum of a solar cycle, and would have set a new record high temperature had we been at solar maximum. I sometimes choose not to make a detailed analysis of what's going on.

Jeff Masters
Most recent microwave pass shows the great lack of convection to the north of Ului's center, and the general lack of convection with the storm overall. It is worth keeping in mind that this internal cause for Ului's weakening has left her central pressure quite low for a Cat 1. The JTWC and Australian Bureau have her at 963mb and 970mb, respectively. If she can get her deep convection back, it wouldn't be that hard for her to regain Cat 2 status prior to landfall.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
Official on ULUI from the JTWC
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 157.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE
IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A SATELLITE IMAGERY FIX FROM PGTW AND INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW AND ABRF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 20P IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. AS A STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
ULUI IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE. TC
20P SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUEENSLAND COAST BY TAU
72 AND THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND. VWS SHOULD DECREASE AS
THE STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 20P TO MAINTAIN CONSTANT
INTENSITIES PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134826
The Current accepted peer reviewed evidence and all the Data to date, show a warming Planet,..and the CO2 and other Gases and Toxins are the Induced Forcings that all the Climate Models to date have underestimated,and the time for the debate has passed on the Warming.

What some beat to death is the cause,and well..the Cause is evidence driven.

Science dosent tow to the individual..the Body of Science is empirical as the data.



Rising Temperatures in the Midst of Heavy Snow?

The decade from 2000 to 2009 was the warmest in the modern record. "Piecing Together the Temperature Puzzle" illustrates how NASA satellites enable us to study possible causes of climate change. The video explains what role fluctuations in the solar cycle, changes in snow and cloud cover, and rising levels of heat-trapping gases may play in contributing to climate change.

For more info on NASA and Climate Change, visit:
http://climate.nasa.gov


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134826
Good morning all.

Ului doesn't look too hot. According to the Australian Bureau she has only maintained a forward speed of 2 knots towards the SSW overnight. Upwelling of colder water just keeps continuing underneath her, and you can see how much convection she has been stripped of, especially on the north side where all the cold water is left in her wake. Over the next 12 hours a sub-tropical ridge building back in to Ului's south will begin to steer and accelerate her towards the southwest. This acceleration will eventually rid her of this upwelling problem, but it has continued so long that Ului may have an even harder time getting back on her feet. I do still think Ului will make some sort of a comeback after her turn to the west. The JTWC and Australian Bureau are now both forecasting a 75-80 knot Cat 1 at landfall, but I will still maintain my forecast of a 90-knot Cat 2, as a lot can happen in 48 hours when Ului encounters warmer water.

My landfall forecast has shifted north due to Ului moving slower than expected. This is resulting in a track further to the north because the ridge building in to her south isn't just going to wait for her to reach a certain latitude before turning her west. My new forecast is shifted about 60 miles north of my previous one, which had Ului making landfall near Mackay, Queensland. I now think she'll cross the coast near Cannonvale, on a point of land sticking out from the coast. The JTWC has her making landfall closer to Ayr, which is 50 miles to the north of Cannonvale, but due to the large angle of the coast, is more than 100 miles up the coastline from Cannonvale. Keep in mind that this sharp angle of the coastline means that any deviation in storm track can mean a large shift in the landfall location and potential storm surge impacts. Ului will have to be monitored closely as she nears landfall. Landfall is expected in about 48 hours, Sunday night local time in Australia. Again this timing may differ greatly if the track shifts even by a few miles.



Cannonvale, my landfall location, is marked by the blue dot:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
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Ojai, CA

81.6 °F
Clear

something is up with weather underground temps cause it's 46 degrees there currently.
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63. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all.
Can someone explain to me how 1 organization can say February was the 6th and another says its the 2nd? Why isn't it either the 6th warmest or the 2nd warmest, not both?


It turns out there are a bunch of years clustered very close to the #2 - #6 slot, all within 0.08°C. According to NASA, here are the top 6 warmest February temperature anomalies:

1998 .80
2010 .71
1995 .70
2002 .70
2004 .66
2007 .62

The uncertainty in the global temperature measurement is +/- 0.05°C, so it would not be hard for NASA and NOAA to differ by 0.08°C.

Jeff Masters
Quoting AussieStorm:

I like your thinking.

well i don't.. I think it's because we have non-controversial information about the known mechanisms ushering arctic cold into N. America that Dr. Masters is able to state that. However, the arguments about what drives the warming are a universe of logic unto their own. All the models and measurements that seek to describe warming are not at all agreed upon because of the politics involved. So what I think Dr. Masters is doing here is trying to be perhaps less scandalous by offering explanations where he can without vocal protest from either side of the AGW war camps. I also believe that is why we get a heading like '2nd or 6th..' as a means towards preemptive diplomacy. Cherry picking would have been going with one or the other only. Those are the agencies that Dr. Master's uses to report these figures, and I appreciate his consistency. Others here are welcome to post any related information that either agrees or disagrees with today's blog data.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1322
Quoting trumpman84:
Part of the reason I have a problem with AGW pushers is this:

Warm temperatures are almost always due to "Global Warming," but cold temperatures can always be easily explained away.

When Dr. Master's mentioned that the globe had its 2nd or 6th warmest February on record, that ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the southern hemisphere land was the warmest on record, no explanation follows -- no mention of the El Nino which likely caused the 2nd warmest ocean temperatures or any other phenomena.

However, when he mentions the Northern Hemisphere having the 26th warmest period on record, he IMMEDIATELY has to qualify it by saying "The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground," because supposedly saying "26th warmest" by itself is unnacceptable.

Why are there no reasons for the warm temperatures, but you go out of your way to have an explanation for the cold? Also, who's to say that the northern hemisphere cold was the cause of snow cover and not the other way around? Who's to say that the cold didn't cause the increased snow cover?


Very well said, I agree with you
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8694
good morning folks!
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Figure 5. 1900-2009 U.S. Hurricane Strikes - West Gulf



Figure 6. 1900-2009 U.S. Hurricane Strikes - East Gulf
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134826
Quoting AussieStorm:

I like your thinking.


Ditto.
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Hi guys whats up
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 14986











All North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific major hurricanes
(at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134826
Quoting trumpman84:
Part of the reason I have a problem with AGW pushers is this:

Warm temperatures are almost always due to "Global Warming," but cold temperatures can always be easily explained away.

When Dr. Master's mentioned that the globe had its 2nd or 6th warmest February on record, that ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the southern hemisphere land was the warmest on record, no explanation follows -- no mention of the El Nino which likely caused the 2nd warmest ocean temperatures or any other phenomena.

However, when he mentions the Northern Hemisphere having the 26th warmest period on record, he IMMEDIATELY has to qualify it by saying "The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground," because supposedly saying "26th warmest" by itself is unnacceptable.

Why are there no reasons for the warm temperatures, but you go out of your way to have an explanation for the cold? Also, who's to say that the northern hemisphere cold was the cause of snow cover and not the other way around? Who's to say that the cold didn't cause the increased snow cover?

I like your thinking.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Why do I have the feeling that the summary of the next post will be "AGW caused it"?


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

;)
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"I'll have a new post on Friday, when I plan to discuss why the Red River at Fargo, ND is now experiencing a "10-year flood" once every 2.5 years, on average."

Why do I have the feeling that the summary of the next post will be "AGW caused it"?
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Part of the reason I have a problem with AGW pushers is this:

Warm temperatures are almost always due to "Global Warming," but cold temperatures can always be easily explained away.

When Dr. Master's mentioned that the globe had its 2nd or 6th warmest February on record, that ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the southern hemisphere land was the warmest on record, no explanation follows -- no mention of the El Nino which likely caused the 2nd warmest ocean temperatures or any other phenomena.

However, when he mentions the Northern Hemisphere having the 26th warmest period on record, he IMMEDIATELY has to qualify it by saying "The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground," because supposedly saying "26th warmest" by itself is unnacceptable.

Why are there no reasons for the warm temperatures, but you go out of your way to have an explanation for the cold? Also, who's to say that the northern hemisphere cold was the cause of snow cover and not the other way around? Who's to say that the cold didn't cause the increased snow cover?
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Both the ECM and CFS models in general show very warm SST anomalies across the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 season, along with a 200 mb anomalously high heights draped along 20N across the entire basin. If el nino fizzles things could get interesting.
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Quoting hahaguy:
Here's the one for March 15, 2005.


Which is close to showing about the same total area, or more...just the color scale gives the impression of being radically different with 48 and 51 showing dark blue to the outlined lighter blue.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:

Many posts in the last few months have been about this, that, and everything else cherry-picked making 2005 look like a boring season. That, I am tired of.

You, and stormchaser, are decent posters. I thought it looked nothing like June and said so. Can we end this?

What say you about the El Nino decline = a wet May/June for the Caribbean. Going to the heat some?


I do agree that the comparisons to 2005 are ridiculous too, cuz that season was an anamoly and will likely not occur again for another 50 years
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8694
Here's the one for March 17, 2005.

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hi stormW !!
so that mean an active hurricane season due the high temps???
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Doom and Gloom? because someone posted the TCHP for March of 2010 and made the obvious comment that it is quite a bit higher than in previous years?

Not sure how you make the jump from that to "we are all going to die"

Many posts in the last few months have been about this, that, and everything else cherry-picked making 2005 look like a boring season. That, I am tired of.

You, and stormchaser, are decent posters. I thought it looked nothing like June and said so. Can we end this?

What say you about the El Nino decline = a wet May/June for the Caribbean. Going to modulate the heat some?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463




Ok here is a comparison from last season to this season, I am sure someone could also find one for March 17th 2005, but anyway you can clearly see the difference.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8694
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wasn't supposed to be taken literally.

Hokay.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Here is the TCHP from last season, there is a good comparison. I would say that 2010 is light years ahead of 2009. I am sure many of the other seasons were like 2009

Nope. March 2009 is the "coolest" of the set...the rest are cooler than 2010, but only slightly so.

And it has to do with, partly, the reduced second rainy season in the Caribbean, known to be caused by a strong El Nino. I wish we had these for 1998...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:

???




Wasn't supposed to be taken literally.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Okay, you're right.

Just growing tired of the doom and gloom on a number of fronts...

The Caribbean has a lacking second rainy season with strong El Ninos, but a wet early rainy season as El Nino modulates. Could actually see instances of the Caribbean not warming as much as normal come May and June this year with the presence of more than normal amount of clouds, rain, wind.

Science source: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/91016457/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0

"The Caribbean rainfall season is best characterized by its bimodal nature, with an initial peak in May-June and a second more prominent one in September-October. This allows for a convenient division into an early and a late rainfall season. In this study we examine the rainfall patterns of the early rainfall season (mid April to July) for links with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Whereas traditionally ENSO events have been identified with dry conditions during the later Caribbean rainfall season, recent research suggests a second signal that manifests itself as a wet early rainfall season of the year of ENSO decline (the El Niño + 1 year)."


Doom and Gloom? because someone posted the TCHP for March of 2010 and made the obvious comment that it is quite a bit higher than in previous years?

Not sure how you make the jump from that to "we are all going to die"
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8694
Ive been on this blog the last week or so and the people here have covered every aspect of the tropical atlantic as it pertains to this hurricane season

so to say they are only focusing on one or two things is highly inaccurate
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8694
Quoting Chigz:
atmoaggie:

Chill dude!

Yes, agreed that comparison to June was not wise but SSTs and hence TCHP this year so far are def higher than even 2005 were at this stage and if you extrapolate (also not wise to do) you can just imagine what June would look like..! :)

Okay, you're right.

Just growing tired of the doom and gloom on a number of fronts...

The Caribbean has a lacking second rainy season with strong El Ninos, but a wet early rainy season as El Nino modulates. Could actually see instances of the Caribbean not warming as much as normal come May and June this year with the presence of more than normal amount of clouds, rain, wind.

Science source: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/91016457/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0

"The Caribbean rainfall season is best characterized by its bimodal nature, with an initial peak in May-June and a second more prominent one in September-October. This allows for a convenient division into an early and a late rainfall season. In this study we examine the rainfall patterns of the early rainfall season (mid April to July) for links with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Whereas traditionally ENSO events have been identified with dry conditions during the later Caribbean rainfall season, recent research suggests a second signal that manifests itself as a wet early rainfall season of the year of ENSO decline (the El Niño + 1 year)."
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Good morning! Looks like Australia will have some company in a few days! Thankfully TC Ului has weakened quite a bit over the last few days, but they're going to have a CAT 2 at the very least in 72 hrs!

Our 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season looks to be a lot more active than last year! Hopefully, people will be civilized this year, or admin will be kicking them out.
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Quoting IKE:


But then IF nothing develops by July 1st, 2010, the downcasters will show up and then they will be rebutted by the argument that 99% of the season happens after July 1st and we're not in the heart of the season yet.

Get ready!


I think the season will get off to a very slow start again, mainly because most of our tropical activity in June and July is Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream driven. Both right now are running a few degrees below normal due to the active southern stream this past winter. Granted, these will quickly return to "normal" by August, so I look for a quick ramp up in the tropical activity around late August in both the Gulf and then of course we'll see what the Cape Verde season brings. Still way too many variables for this season. Folks seem to be focusing on the only one or two right now.
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Here is the TCHP from last season, there is a good comparison. I would say that 2010 is light years ahead of 2009. I am sure many of the other seasons were like 2009
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8694
Quoting Chigz:
correction.. I meant compare TCHPs East of 80W (in Carribean) for June 17th 2009 and March 17th 2010...not too different to be honest!!

but remember, its only march and they look similar now, what will June look like?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Wow so someone cant even post a TCHP chart and make an obvious and at least in my mind perfectly valid comment without someone ripping their head off?

I think I will go invest in a hard hat, seems like I would need it in here lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8694
correction.. I meant compare TCHPs East of 80W (in Carribean) for June 17th 2009 and March 17th 2010...not too different to be honest!!
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actually..look at it closely.. compare TCHPs east of 80W for 2009 and 2010 for March 17th...it's not that far off!! LOL..
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31. IKE
Quoting Chucktown:


The wishcasters are already in full force Atmo. It's only going to get worse as we draw closer to June 1st. I agree that the upcoming year will be more active than last, but cmon people its March. A lot can happen in the next 4-5 months before we really get into the heart of hurricane season.


But then IF nothing develops by July 1st, 2010, the downcasters will show up and then they will be rebutted by the argument that 99% of the season happens after July 1st and we're not in the heart of the season yet.

Get ready!
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.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

???

June 15 2005:


2006:


2007:


2008:


2009:


Yours looks like March. (Okay, *is* a little warm for March...but not June.)

Does everyone else see wild and crazy, never before seen heat and favorable tropical parameters every time they look at a map? Is everyone but me expecting an April 1 cat3 in the Gulf, or what? It is getting tired.


Most of the tropical atlantic except close to home is currently above normal and (could)bring consequences if all parameters come into play. I would not mind if el nino affects linger deep into the season to be quite honest.

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atmoaggie:

Chill dude!

Yes, agreed that comparison to June was not wise but SSTs and hence TCHP this year so far are def higher than even 2005 were at this stage and if you extrapolate (also not wise to do) you can just imagine what June would look like..! :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:
.
Isn't the GOM to cold at the moment for it to be warm enough to support a Cat 3?
Is the ALT warm enough to support a cat 3 right now?


The loop current has the potential to support a tropical storm, but not sure it would support a Cat 3.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

???

June 15 2005:


2006:


2007:


2008:


2009:


Yours looks like March. (Okay, *is* a little warm for March...but not June.)

Does everyone else see wild and crazy, never before seen heat and favorable tropical parameters every time they look at a map? Is everyone but me expecting an April 1 cat3 in the Gulf, or what? It is getting tired.


The wishcasters are already in full force Atmo. It's only going to get worse as we draw closer to June 1st. I agree that the upcoming year will be more active than last, but cmon people its March. A lot can happen in the next 4-5 months before we really get into the heart of hurricane season.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

???

June 15 2005:


2006:


2007:


2008:


2009:


Yours looks like March. (Okay, *is* a little warm for March...but not June.)

Does everyone else see wild and crazy, never before seen heat and favorable tropical parameters every time they look at a map? Is everyone but me expecting an April 1 cat3 in the Gulf, or what? It is getting tired.
.
Isn't the GOM to cold at the moment for it to be warm enough to support a Cat 3?
Is the ALT warm enough to support a cat 3 right now?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TCHP for today


Are we in June?

???

June 15 2005:


2006:


2007:


2008:


2009:


Yours looks like March. (Okay, *is* a little warm for March...but not June.)

Does everyone else see wild and crazy, never before seen heat and favorable tropical parameters every time they look at a map? Is everyone but me expecting an April 1 cat3 in the Gulf, or what? It is getting tired.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting hurricane23:


Hey Mike! Yea thats pretty wild... If you ask me one of the clear-cut sign this el nino could be in its demise i.e; in trouble is that the warm subsurface temperatures generated by the current Kelvin Wave are having little to no effect due to constant upwelling in ENSO region 1/2. tchp and sst's aren't going to be an issue this year as it stands now but will the atmosphere cooperate?


Hey Adrian! I can honestly say I have never seen this much heat content in the Caribbean so early in all of my 8 years of watching the tropics. Hopefully some serious shear develops or large outbreaks of SAL dominate the season because we could be in trouble if these waters get tapped during the year.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TCHP for today


Are we in June?


Hey Mike! Yea thats pretty wild... If you ask me one of the clear-cut sign this el nino could be in its demise i.e; in trouble is that the warm subsurface temperatures generated by the current Kelvin Wave are having little to no effect due to constant upwelling in ENSO region 1/2. tchp and sst's aren't going to be an issue this year as it stands now but will the atmosphere cooperate?
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http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

Have a look at this website for SST anomalies for Feb through March and it's so obvious that the region that Dr M mentions (-5S to +5N, 120-170W) has significantly cooler in March as compared to January 2010!!
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TCHP for today


Are we in June?
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Gust front cloud, SE Michigan
Thunderstorm over Grand Teton
Double rainbow over Old Faithful
Rainbow in Riverside Geyser