Globe has 2nd or 6th warmest February on record; Fiji hard-hit by Tomas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:51 PM GMT on March 18, 2010

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The globe recorded its sixth warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated February 2010 the second warmest, behind 1998. The year-to-date period, January - February, is the 5th or 2nd warmest such period on record, according to NOAA and NASA, respectively. NOAA rated February 2010 global ocean temperatures as the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. February land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 26th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground--February 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 3rd highest in the 44-year snow cover record. For the entire winter, the Northern Hemisphere had the 2nd greatest snow cover on record, the U.S. had its greatest snow cover, and Eurasia had its 4th most.


Figure 1. departure of surface temperature from average for the globe during February 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the second warmest on record in February, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. Both groups also rated the winter of 2009 - 2010 the 2nd warmest winter on record. The record warmest February and winter occurred 1998.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average--in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño--on March 14, 2010, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for all of February and the first two weeks of March. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that have helped maintain the current El Niño have weakened since March 1, but are probably strong enough to maintain the current moderate El Niño conditions through mid-April. Some slow weakening of El Niño is likely beginning in early April. It is highly uncertain what may happen to El Niño at that point, with the models split between predicting a weak El Niño, neutral conditions, or a La Niña by the height of hurricane season (August-September-October). It's worth noting that the last time we had a strong El Niño--the record-strength 1997 - 1998 event--El Niño conditions collapsed suddenly in May 1998, and a La Niña event rapidly developed during the summer of 1998. A similar chain of events is possible this year, as well. However, the El Niño of 1986 - 1987 maintained moderate strength through two consecutive hurricane seasons, and it is possible that this year's El Niño could pull a similar feat. We simply don't have the predictive skill to say what might happen to El Niño this summer.

February sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
February 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of February 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years.

Heavy damage on Fiji from Tropical Cyclone Tomas
Communications are still out to most of the islands in the Fiji devastated by Tropical Cyclone Tomas, but it is apparent that the Category 3 storm caused "overwhelming damage" to the islands that received a direct hit, according to the Associated Press. Tomas, packing winds of up to 130 mph (205 kph) at its center, hit Fiji beginning late Friday. The Lau and Lomaiviti island groups and the northern coast of the second biggest island, Vanua Levu, took the brunt of the storm. Only one death has been reported thus far. Initial reports said 1500 homes were destroyed or damaged and up to 50 percent of facilities in the Lau Group were affected.

I'll have a new post on Friday, when I plan to discuss why the Red River at Fargo, ND is now experiencing a "10-year flood" once every 2.5 years, on average.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bordonaro:


Thanks Levi! I understand "winter" finally arrived in AK, just as spring has shown up in the lower 48! How cold is it in Homer, AK now? It is warmer today in New York City, NY, than in the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area, 67F in NYC and 61F at the DFW AP!


Indeed it got very cold and we got 4 feet of snow in 5 days here, but it has since been nice and sunny with warmer temps the last couple days. We're near normal right now at 31 degrees. The eastern United States is in for anther shot of winter next week before Spring moves in for good. Then we'll all warm up.
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Firefox is without doubt superior. Swap, and never look back! ..And learn what add-ons are right for you! Add-ons for me make Firefox what it is. (but be warned, some are safer than others!)
One thing I forgot to mention ... AdBlock ... you will not regret it ;)
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good afternoon, I know this question is off-topic. May I ask the Firefox 3.6 users out there, what is you're opinion of Firefox, compared to the regular IE? So far is seems quite a bit faster than IE.


It seems to me like it's faster. Things load quicker. I prefer it over IE.
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh anyone that still uses IE doesn't know what they're missing. Firefox is more secure and very much faster. Also, IE has problems like stretching these very WU blogs when large images or text are present. IE also doesn't display special html tags well when users use special effects in their comments.


Thanks Levi! I understand "winter" finally arrived in AK, just as spring has shown up in the lower 48! How cold is it in Homer, AK now? It is warmer today in New York City, NY, than in the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area, 67F in NYC and 61F at the DFW AP!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting MTWX:

I have a friend that uses firefox... I like it.
I actually concidered switching from IE.


I am just experimenting with it, but it seems so much faster than IE when loading the web pages!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good afternoon, I know this question is off-topic. May I ask the Firefox 3.6 users out there, what is you're opinion of Firefox, compared to the regular IE? So far is seems quite a bit faster than IE.


Oh anyone that still uses IE doesn't know what they're missing. Firefox is more secure and very much faster. Also, IE has problems like stretching these very WU blogs when large images or text are present. Other browsers like Firefox or Chrome don't have a stretching problem. IE also doesn't display special html tags well when users use special effects in their comments.

Not to mention Firefox's amazing number of add-ons to customize your experience.
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113. MTWX
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good afternoon, I know this question is off-topic. May I ask the Firefox 3.6 users out there, what is you're opinion of Firefox, compared to the regular IE? So far is seems quite a bit faster than IE.

I have a friend that uses firefox... I like it.
I actually concidered switching from IE.
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Good afternoon, I know this question is off-topic. May I ask the Firefox 3.6 users out there, what is you're opinion of Firefox, compared to the regular IE? So far is seems quite a bit faster than IE.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
thanks, I didn't know anything was burning around here and I can't smell any smoke, just saw the floating white things all over the place.

glad to hear the burns are controlled btw. thanks again
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110. MTWX
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yes, there are controlled burns around Lake Okeechobee and the wnw winds are pushing the ash into your area.

I was looking for anything in the local news... Nice to know for people in that area...Thanks
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109. MTWX
Quoting leelee75k:
anyone in fort lauderdale around? I'm seeing small white particles floating around in the air. It breaks apart like ash if you touch it but is extremely light and floats around very easily. Any idea what it is and where its coming from?

Sounds like ash to me... Is anything in your area burning??
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"I sometimes choose not to make a detailed analysis of what's going on" is not a LEARNED input. It's called cherry picking and leads learned people to doubt other statements and comments that otherwise would not draw a raised eyebrow...
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anyone in fort lauderdale around? I'm seeing small white particles floating around in the air. It breaks apart like ash if you touch it but is extremely light and floats around very easily. Any idea what it is and where its coming from?
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105. MTWX
Saturday night is a night to watch for the mid south!!!

Link
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Here we go. Ului is firing up that convection directly over the center. These are the first reds on this particular IR enhancement that we've seen in 6 hours, and the first dark grays in days.

And now, if Ului does try to strengthen over warmer water, we could see a quick ramp-up to Cat 2 because her central pressure is still all the way down in the 960s or 970s. What happens is her wind field got really spread out when she got weakened, and now convection is clustering in a small radius about the center. When you start focusing a bunch of upward motion right near the center but not far away, this tightens the core, and then that upward motion is compensated for by sinking air on the outside edge of the storm. This raises surface pressures on the edge of the storm but lowers them at the center, creating a tighter pressure gradient and faster winds more appropriate for her central pressure. This his how Ului could make a comeback, if the water is warm enough.



^^Click for Loop^^
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Weekend Outlook Posted:
South Florida StormWatch
(main site)
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97. Very interesting, Patrap. Sounds a bit like www.idealist.org, which has been struggling. A venture like this without the gol'darn farmville and mafia wars and hacking might just be more than okay.

Too beautiful to stay in; have a good one!
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Link

Link

Link
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2010 17 MAR



2009 17 MAR



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Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning everyone.Hope everyone is doing well.Interesting little spin between Haiti & Colombia for this time of year, hope Haiti doesn't get rained on hard.

hey man how ya doing I AM TIRED OF COLD FRONTS AND NO RAIN AND WARM WINDS by the way what spin THERE IS A SPIN PLEASE SHOW ME. :)
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Chris Hughes's Act III -- Jumo.com, A Social Platform For Global Volunteerism

UPDATED*

Chris Hughes, all of 26, has been looking for his Act III.

Act I was co-founding Facebook while at Harvard with this roommate Mark Zuckerberg. Act II was taking a leave from the social networking behemoth and joining Barack Obama's presidential campaign, where the fresh-faced Southerner from Hickory, N.C. became part of an A-list new media team. There, he served as the architect of My.BarackObama.com -- or MyBO, the most successful network of volunteers and grassroots army that American presidential campaigning had ever seen.

And Act III? "I knew i wanted to do something at the nexus of what I call global development and technology," Hughes told HuffPost Tech in a phone interview yesterday. "By global development, I'm talking about a broad umbrella -- health care, agriculture, education. I just knew I wanted to do something in that space, and I spent the last year traveling" (in Kenya and Senegal, which he fell in love with) "and talking to people" (such as Jeff Sachs, the prominent economist at Columbia University who's been named one of the "100 Most Influential People In The World" by Time magazine -- twice). Hughes added:" I spent the past year researching, studying, learning everything I could in the space."

Today, he announced the "soft launch" of Jumo -- in the African language of Yoruba, Jumo translates to "together in concert." Think of the site as philanthropy, volunteerism and social networking all rolled up into one. It's a platform, he says, that will connect people and organizations around the world. And Hughes is arguably the most well-known tech entrepreneur to enter the still evolving global space. The site, which is currently just a few pages, will launch fully in the fall, sometime between September and October.

In an e-mail blast early this morning, Hughes wrote:


I just wanted to let you know about my new startup called Jumo. We're announcing today that we're building an online platform to connect individuals and organizations working to change the world.

We believe we can leverage the participatory web to foster long-term engagement with the issues and organizations that are relevant to each individual. Jumo has the potential to unlock a great deal of time, skills, and financial resources previously unavailable to organizations around the world.

When you get a second, take a look.

We'll be launching the site with full capabilities this fall, but I wanted to let you know that we're officially getting underway. If you know anyone who may be interested in working with us, please send them our jobs page to get in contact with us.

Talk to you soon,

Chris

P.S. I'd love for you to forward this email to friends, become our fan on Facebook , and let your friends on Twitter know. The more people that know about what we're doing, the stronger the team we'll be able to build.

Note how the e-mail was signed -- simply, "Chris." Perfectly informal, perfectly Hughes.

As it stands, the non-profit, non-partisan organization has a staff of three -- and that includes Hughes, who says he's looking to hire more people in Jumo's office space in New York's trendy SoHo neighborhood. Hughes has raised more than $2 million from foundations and individuals -- some $500,000 from individual donations alone. "We're not disclosing their names," he said. "They didn't give the money to get publicity." And if there's one underlying principle behind the whole new venture, he continued, it's this: one-on-one personal connection on an interest-level basis. Your interest, your time, your money, match with what's needed anywhere in the world. On Jumo, you can find a small African group paying women to distribute condoms in their neighborhoods. Or a group organizing recreational activities in the slums of Mumbai. Or a group like Vittana (voted as a HuffPost Game Changer last year), a micro-financing service for students who can't afford to go college in countries such as Nicaragua and Vietnam.

"Too often, when people think about helping the world, they think of a photo of a hungry, malnourished African kid, send $10 and call it a day," Hughes told me. "That's the old model. There are lot of people across America and in other countries who want to help, and I would argue that the Internet has not caught up with them. So the goal for us is to build a central place where individuals can come in and discover and organization or an issue that's personally relevant to them. And then connect."

In a way, Jumo is akin to Facebook, in that the social networking site does not create content but instead enables users to share their content and then organizes it.

But Jumo, Hughes said, is not like Facebook Causes -- the Facebook application founded in 2007 that allows users to create grassroots groups in support of issues. For Hughes, users must first discover a cause, then develop a relationship with the organization before giving money and/or time. "I think Facebook Causes has blazed the trail, but Causes, in my view, comes at very end of the donor experience."

He expects that at least "a few hundred organizations" will be listed and organized on Jumo come fall.

"There are some social ventures right now, like Engineers Without Borders and Scientists Without Borders, both modeled after Doctors Without Borders," Sachs, who's traveling in Japan, said in a phone interview. "But given Chris's huge talent in this social networking area, his venture, I think, will be unique. Jumo could be truly linking volunteers and donors with organizations, or it could be that feelers are going to come out of the villages themselves and seek help and partnerships. Technology, as we know, has made the world smaller, and I think we're going to find that lots of new connections will be made."

Added Morley Winograd, a former senior policy adviser to Vice President Al Gore and co-author of the groundbreaking and prescient book "Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube and the Future of American Politics": "In a way, this new social networking site is a natural extension of what Hughes did during the campaign: connect people by their interests and make them care about issues, all supported by technology. And I think this also speaks to the fact that Hughes is a member of the Millennial generation that cares a lot about volunteerism. Many members of this generation chooses activities with a social purpose in mind."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
Quoting leftovers:
alaskas plenty cold funny the itarods had the coldest race in many yrs


It's amazing what happened as soon as the trough shifted north for a week and the blocking wasn't allowed to funnel arctic air into the lower 48. It dammed up here instead, leading to a horrendous week here while the lower 48 enjoyed only its 2nd week of nice weather all winter.
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Quoting Patrap:

Florida’s Citizens to offer $2 billion in bonds to brace for hurricanes

Posted: March 18, 2010




With hurricane season approaching, Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. plans to sell $2 billion in tax-exempt bonds to add to its reserves for claims.

Citizens is the state’s nonprofit, tax-exempt government corporation providing insurance protection to Florida property owners.

Citizens will sell senior secured obligations including $400 million in floating-rate notes and $200 million in short-term securities, according to Bloomberg, citing a Standard & Poor’s report.

While it has been four years without a major hurricane in the state, recent predictions say two to three storms could occur during the pending hurricane season of June 1 to Nov. 30.

Citizens last sold bonds in April, according to Bloomberg, when it fell short of a planned $2 billion issue. The insurer won approval from Florida legislators to raise rates for the first time in two years in 2009, and can choose to levy emergency assessments on nearly all of its policies in the state to pay off its debt, if needed.


Finally being pro-active. Charlie Crist deserves NONE of that credit. Although, I am sure he'll coin it.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Good afternoon! It's beautiful weather here at last!

I'm not getting on the blogs much -- the Son is visiting here and brought the Sun from Maui -- anyone doing the brackets for the NCAA tournament?

GO TERPS!

Enjoy your day!


Go Terps is right!
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Quoting jeffs713:

Right. In a system as complex as our atmosphere's, even a small change can have a gigantic impact upon the end result. To make an analogy... when building a bridge, if the alignment of two steel beams is off by an inch or two, the entire bridge can end up failing catastrophically down the road.

yah! Minnemike has seen that analogy play out with his own two eyes. I work on the riverside within a mile downstream of the infamous I-35W collapse.. as a side note
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Quoting Minnemike:

I am thankful we're worried about a gas with such low atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact. We would be talking about cataclysmic warming otherwise. Instead, we are talking about the kind of warming that won't destroy our species, but will certainly impact our way of life, and the lives of countless species worldwide, many of which we depend on. I just think it's a fallacy being communicated to down play CO2 using atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact figures. Just because a number is small, it doesn't amount to even a hill of beans if it's out of context.

Right. In a system as complex as our atmosphere's, even a small change can have a gigantic impact upon the end result. To make an analogy... when building a bridge, if the alignment of two steel beams is off by an inch or two, the entire bridge can end up failing catastrophically down the road.
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Quoting Seastep:


Fossil fuel CO2 contributes, at most, 5%.

Mainly natural.

I am thankful we're worried about a gas with such low atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact. We would be talking about cataclysmic warming otherwise. Instead, we are talking about the kind of warming that won't destroy our species, but will certainly impact our way of life, and the lives of countless species worldwide, many of which we depend on. I just think it's a fallacy being communicated to down play CO2 using atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact figures. Just because a number is small, it doesn't amount to even a hill of beans if it's out of context.
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Quoting Seastep:


Fossil fuel CO2 contributes, at most, 5%.

Mainly natural.

5% of overall CO2?
Or 5% of the CO2 increase.
Important distinction there.
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Good afternoon! It's beautiful weather here at last!

I'm not getting on the blogs much -- the Son is visiting here and brought the Sun from Maui -- anyone doing the brackets for the NCAA tournament?

GO TERPS!

Enjoy your day!
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As one might say "IT'S THE SUN STUPID"





Updated 2010 Mar 17 2201 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2010

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1054 (N15W37) was in a gradual decay phase with decreased spot count and area. Region 1056 (N17E46) was numbered today and is magnetically classified as a Beta.

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next three days (18-20 March).

Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes for the past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period at high latitudes between 0300Z - 0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed elevated velocities around 520 km/s and densities around (1-3 p/cc). These signatures are consistent with a coronal hole high-speed stream, presumably from the northward extension of the southern polar coronal hole.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (18 March) due to the arrival of a partial-halo CME observed on 13 March. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on days two and three (19-20 March).
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Quoting FatPenguin:
The majority of our atmosphere is 10 miles thick.

CO2 is a heat trapping gas.

CO2 levels have risen over the last 200 years due mainly to the burning of fossil fuels.

Seems like people tend to forget, or choose to ignore, these absolutes.

Any thoughts that temps are going to turn around and head down are foolish.


Fossil fuel CO2 contributes, at most, 5%.

Mainly natural.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414



(Reuters) - A Russian Soyuz space capsule carrying a U.S. astronaut and a Russian cosmonaut from the International Space Station landed safely in Kazakhstan on Thursday.



The capsule -- ferrying Expedition 22 Commander Jeff Williams and Flight Engineer Maxim Suraev -- landed in the vast steppe near the town of Arkalyk in northern Kazakhstan as planned, Russia's Mission Control said.

"The descent capsule of the Soyuz TMA-16 ... has landed," an announcer at Mission Control outside Moscow said to applause from space officials and controllers. "The capsule is lying on its side."

The capsule, charred on re-entry, ended its three-and-a-half-hour ride to Earth in a puff of dust after activating its boosters to cushion the touchdown.

"The crew is safe. They say they are in a great mood," a Mission Control official told Reuters by telephone several minutes later, while rescue teams were opening the hatch of the capsule and preparing for medical checks on the crew.

Three men remain aboard the $100 billion, 16-nation ISS: U.S. Flight Engineer Timothy Creamer, Japanese Flight Engineer Soichi Noguchi and Russian Flight Engineer Oleg Kotov.

The expedition, which is numbered 23 and is led by Kotov, will expand to a six-member crew on April 4 after three others -- Russians Alexander Skvortsov and Mikhail Korniyenko and U.S. astronaut Tracy Caldwell Dyson -- arrive at the ISS aboard a Soyuz spacecraft.

Russia will ferry all crews to the ISS aboard its single-use Soyuz spaceships after U.S. space agency NASA mothballs its shuttle fleet by the end of this year.

Earlier this month Russia announced a halt to space tourism to free capacity for ISS flights. It plans to double the number of launches to four this year as permanent crews of professionals aboard the expanded ISS are set to rise to six.

(Reporting by Dmitry Solovyov; editing by Michael Stott)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
It is interesting to note that 4 of our top analog years for this hurricane season fall into the top 10 years of north Atlantic A.C.E. (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). The list of ACE values goes back 70 years to 1940.

2005, of course 1st place.

1995, 3rd place.

1998, 7th place.

1964, 10th place.

If we want to count 2003, that year was 8th place on the list. Now it is true that most of these years are recent, and have taken place after the active period in Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995, when the AMO went warm. Hence they are all high up on the list, but that is just another reason why we should be wary of this year, and be well-prepared should the worst happen.
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The majority of our atmosphere is 10 miles thick.

CO2 is a heat trapping gas.

CO2 levels have risen over the last 200 years due mainly to the burning of fossil fuels.

Seems like people tend to forget, or choose to ignore, these absolutes.

Any thoughts that temps are going to turn around and head down are foolish.
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Hurricane Preparation

By Charles Zusman

March 17, 2010, 5:39PM
Concerned about hurricanes? Read this...from BoatUS...

First Hurricane Season Forecasts Rattle Boaters, Marina Operators

BoatU.S. Can Help You Prepare

ALEXANDRIA, VA, March 17, 2010 - With the release of several early seasonal hurricane forecasts for this year, boaters and marina operators are finding out they could face a much different scenario than last year's relatively mild storm season.

Accuweather, a nationwide weather service, recently reported it expects 2010 to be an "extreme season" with as many as 18 named storms, a 100% increase over 2009. BoatU.S., a national boat owners group with experience in hurricane preparation and post-hurricane recovery efforts says that most boaters and marinas can survive by being better prepared. To help with this task, the Association has some free online "tools" available at the BoatU.S. "Hurricane Resource Center" at http://www.BoatUS.com/Hurricanes .

The Web site offers easily downloadable storm planning materials including a hurricane preparation worksheet, an in-depth Guide to Preparing Boats and Marinas for Hurricanes, and checklists for what to do before and after a hurricane strikes. Sample hurricane plans for boat and yacht clubs as well as up-to-the-minute storm tracking tools with live satellite images are also online in one convenient Web site.

While the safest location for a boat during a storm is on land, boaters may also want to ask their insurer now if their policy helps pay some of the costs of a storm-related haul-out. Boat owners seeking the services of a professional delivery captain to move a vessel to a safe "hurricane hole" can go to the BoatU.S. Captains Locator athttp://www.BoatUS.com/procaptains/ . If moving the boat is not possible, BoatU.S. suggests owners contact their marina now to enroll in hurricane "clubs" and coordinate storm preparations.

Help for Boat Clubs, Yards and Marinas

The free 24-page What Works, A Guide to Preparing Marinas, Yacht Clubs, and Boats for Hurricanes shares success stories as well as failures of dozens of marinas and clubs that have experienced a hurricane over last two decades. The guide covers floating docks with tall pilings, strapping down boats ashore, developing hurricane clubs for customers, dealing with boats at fixed docks, moving boats to hurricane holes, and how to install better moorings.

A special legal section, "Protecting Yourself from the Storm," offers information equally important to any marina owner or yacht club leadership -- how to protect themselves from vessel owners seeking compensation for hurricane-related damage.

Also included is a sample Marina Hurricane Preparation Plan that can be customized for any boating facility, as well as a Hurricane Preparation Worksheet that can be copied and given to individual boat owners.

To download a copy of the guide, go to www.BoatUS.com/hurricanes . To get a paper copy, call 703-823-9550 ext. 3525.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
Quoting JeffMasters:


It turns out there are a bunch of years clustered very close to the #2 - #6 slot, all within 0.08°C. According to NASA, here are the top 6 warmest February temperature anomalies:

1998 .80
2010 .71
1995 .70
2002 .70
2004 .66
2007 .62

The uncertainty in the global temperature measurement is +/- 0.05°C, so it would not be hard for NASA and NOAA to differ by 0.08°C.

Jeff Masters


The globe recorded its sixth warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated February 2010 the second warmest, behind 1998.

I didn't know measurements or instruments even existed in the 1800's with any accuracy proven. What method was being used in the 1800's that we can say was accurate to the decimal point. Was they using decimal points in temperature readings to the 100's like some post i have seen. How accuarte is this really!
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Experts say storm modeling needs improvement


BATON ROUGE During hurricanes and tropical storms, surge predictions can vary in accuracy, and just a few feet can make a big difference for communities like Terrebonne and Lafourche.

A day before Hurricane Ike struck Terrebonne and Lafourche in 2008, storm-surge predictions varied from 5 to 8 feet for Terrebonne.

The actual surge was closer to 10 feet, which overtopped all of the community's levees.

Storm surge accounts for 90 percent of deaths during hurricanes and has done extensive damage to the Louisiana coast. A National Hurricane Center scientist said Tuesday that the ability to accurately predict storm surge needs to improve so the threat can be efficiently communicated to coastal communities.

Jamie Rhome, a storm-surge specialist with the National Hurricane Center, spoke at the 2010 Central Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Conference in Baton Rouge. The two-day conference brings together federal hurricane experts, academics, emergency officials and local government representatives to discuss issues facing the state during the next hurricane season.

Among local officials attending were Terrebonne Levee Director Reggie Dupre, South Lafourche Levee Director Windell Curole, North Lafourche Levee Manager Dwayne Bourgeois and Terrebonne Emergency Director Earl Eues.

When local emergency officials call me, they want to know: How much water will there be? When will it come and when will it leave? What will the impacts be to my area? And how should I respond? Rhome said.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442

Florida’s Citizens to offer $2 billion in bonds to brace for hurricanes

Posted: March 18, 2010




With hurricane season approaching, Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. plans to sell $2 billion in tax-exempt bonds to add to its reserves for claims.

Citizens is the state’s nonprofit, tax-exempt government corporation providing insurance protection to Florida property owners.

Citizens will sell senior secured obligations including $400 million in floating-rate notes and $200 million in short-term securities, according to Bloomberg, citing a Standard & Poor’s report.

While it has been four years without a major hurricane in the state, recent predictions say two to three storms could occur during the pending hurricane season of June 1 to Nov. 30.

Citizens last sold bonds in April, according to Bloomberg, when it fell short of a planned $2 billion issue. The insurer won approval from Florida legislators to raise rates for the first time in two years in 2009, and can choose to levy emergency assessments on nearly all of its policies in the state to pay off its debt, if needed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
"February sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record"

Right you are, but the sea ice has made a significant recovery since the start of march.

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Quoting hurricane23:
Both the ECM and CFS models in general show very warm SST anomalies across the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 season, along with a 200 mb anomalously high heights draped along 20N across the entire basin. If el nino fizzles things could get interesting.


Which is essentially what most of us with any idea how this works have been saying...

1. Given the moderation of the El Nino, possibly a shift to neuitral in the next 3-5 months
2. Given the higher SSTs
3. Given the the radical THCP values in the Carib
4. Gien the indication that the AB high/CONUS trof may be weaker/further north, respectively, it might be a rough season, with the emphasis on the "might"

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Mark your calendar for the 2010 conference
March 29-April 2 * Hilton Orlando, Orlando, Florida






Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
"It is highly uncertain what may happen to El Nino at that point, with the models split between predicting a weak El Nino, neutral conditions, or a La Nina by the height of hurricane season (August-September-October). It's worth noting that the last time we had a strong El Nino--the record-strength 1997 - 1998 event--El Nino conditions collapsed suddenly in May 1998, and a La Nina event rapidly developed during the summer of 1998. A similar chain of events is possible this year, as well. However, the El Nino of 1986 - 1987 maintained moderate strength through two consecutive hurricane seasons, and it is possible that this year's El Nino could pull a similar feat. We simply don't have the predictive skill to say what might happen to El Nino this summer."

Yes we do. NOAA just has to look at the big picture instead of looking at their CFS models and writing a forecast based off of statistical probabilities. That's what they did on this winter's forecast and they failed. They were beaten badly by Accuweather's forecast (it's the truth guys so don't argue about it please).

If NOAA would take a step back from it's fancy computers and actually forecast the weather, they would do so much better. If they were to notice that the El Nino is central-pacific based, and then realize that this is because of the cold PDO signature, and then figure out that it's a reactionary El Nino, then they would realize that it's only a short-lived event. Almost everyone else knew last fall that this El Nino would come and go, just like that. It's not a multi-season event this time. The central-pacific based or "Modoki" El Nino is also a big part of explaining why it resulted in such a cold winter for the eastern United States.

But no, NOAA is all about statistical probability now. Just look at their winter or hurricane season forecasts. It's all statistical probabilities and computer forecasts. I hate to bash them but it's true, and I honestly hope they change some of this stuff so they can get better at what they do, not to say they don't already do a great job. I just think they could be so much better than they are right now.
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Be sure to listen and participate in the Daily Downpour Show here on the wunderground this afternoon

The Daily Downpour Schedule

Here is the schedule for today:
All times are in Eastern
4:00-4:10: National Forecast
4:10-4:20: Dr. Masters Blog Recap
4:20-4:30: Learning Corner about Coriolis Force
4:30-5:00: The Weather Show with Shaun and Tim

Please join us. We promise you will learn something!

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
Good morning everyone.Hope everyone is doing well.Interesting little spin between Haiti & Colombia for this time of year, hope Haiti doesn't get rained on hard.
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Thanks for the Learned input to some posters questions Dr. Masters.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
70. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting trumpman84:
Part of the reason I have a problem with AGW pushers is this:

Warm temperatures are almost always due to "Global Warming," but cold temperatures can always be easily explained away.

When Dr. Master's mentioned that the globe had its 2nd or 6th warmest February on record, that ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the southern hemisphere land was the warmest on record, no explanation follows -- no mention of the El Nino which likely caused the 2nd warmest ocean temperatures or any other phenomena.

However, when he mentions the Northern Hemisphere having the 26th warmest period on record, he IMMEDIATELY has to qualify it by saying "The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground," because supposedly saying "26th warmest" by itself is unnacceptable.

Why are there no reasons for the warm temperatures, but you go out of your way to have an explanation for the cold? Also, who's to say that the northern hemisphere cold was the cause of snow cover and not the other way around? Who's to say that the cold didn't cause the increased snow cover?


I could have mentioned El Niño contributing to the February warmth, but I also could have mentioned that we are at the minimum of a solar cycle, and would have set a new record high temperature had we been at solar maximum. I sometimes choose not to make a detailed analysis of what's going on.

Jeff Masters

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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