Globe has 2nd or 6th warmest February on record; Fiji hard-hit by Tomas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:51 PM GMT on March 18, 2010

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The globe recorded its sixth warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated February 2010 the second warmest, behind 1998. The year-to-date period, January - February, is the 5th or 2nd warmest such period on record, according to NOAA and NASA, respectively. NOAA rated February 2010 global ocean temperatures as the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. February land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 26th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground--February 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 3rd highest in the 44-year snow cover record. For the entire winter, the Northern Hemisphere had the 2nd greatest snow cover on record, the U.S. had its greatest snow cover, and Eurasia had its 4th most.


Figure 1. departure of surface temperature from average for the globe during February 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the second warmest on record in February, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. Both groups also rated the winter of 2009 - 2010 the 2nd warmest winter on record. The record warmest February and winter occurred 1998.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average--in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño--on March 14, 2010, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for all of February and the first two weeks of March. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that have helped maintain the current El Niño have weakened since March 1, but are probably strong enough to maintain the current moderate El Niño conditions through mid-April. Some slow weakening of El Niño is likely beginning in early April. It is highly uncertain what may happen to El Niño at that point, with the models split between predicting a weak El Niño, neutral conditions, or a La Niña by the height of hurricane season (August-September-October). It's worth noting that the last time we had a strong El Niño--the record-strength 1997 - 1998 event--El Niño conditions collapsed suddenly in May 1998, and a La Niña event rapidly developed during the summer of 1998. A similar chain of events is possible this year, as well. However, the El Niño of 1986 - 1987 maintained moderate strength through two consecutive hurricane seasons, and it is possible that this year's El Niño could pull a similar feat. We simply don't have the predictive skill to say what might happen to El Niño this summer.

February sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
February 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of February 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years.

Heavy damage on Fiji from Tropical Cyclone Tomas
Communications are still out to most of the islands in the Fiji devastated by Tropical Cyclone Tomas, but it is apparent that the Category 3 storm caused "overwhelming damage" to the islands that received a direct hit, according to the Associated Press. Tomas, packing winds of up to 130 mph (205 kph) at its center, hit Fiji beginning late Friday. The Lau and Lomaiviti island groups and the northern coast of the second biggest island, Vanua Levu, took the brunt of the storm. Only one death has been reported thus far. Initial reports said 1500 homes were destroyed or damaged and up to 50 percent of facilities in the Lau Group were affected.

I'll have a new post on Friday, when I plan to discuss why the Red River at Fargo, ND is now experiencing a "10-year flood" once every 2.5 years, on average.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chicklit:
Are you implying that Hugh is illiterate and doesn't read? Even if he doesn't, Hugh must think somepun's up because his road's got melted away. Go on. Get me started. It's thursday and I'm irish. Oh sorry, it's cold. Got to take a hot bath break. Will take a rain check on that. Really, bye now, wunderblogfolk.


I am sure Hugh is pretty smart! I feel bad that the changing weather is going to cut into how he earns his livelihood!

Hopefully, he will be able to get himself a regular long-haul trucking job!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Well, it will be 73F tomorrow here in Arlington, TX. And Saturday night, just in time for the first full day of Spring 2010, it might snow.

I am ready for about a week of 90F weather, can someone please lend us a few hot days??
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting bappit:
I bet Hugh doesn't buy that global warming stuff.
Are you implying that Hugh is illiterate and doesn't read? Even if he doesn't, Hugh must think somepun's up because his road's got melted away. Go on. Get me started. It's thursday and I'm irish. Oh sorry, it's cold. Got to take a hot bath break. Will take a rain check on that. Really, bye now, wunderblogfolk.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11385
Hi Flsky! Looking forward to our 'summit meeting' at Aunt Catfish's.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11385
Quoting Chicklit:
personally, i think nature is messed up right now...just like everything else. and if we don't clean up our individual acts, it's going to get worse. i have always been a 'record freak.' had to have hard copies of everything. well guess, what, just went to on-line billing for everything. i pay for everything on-line anyway, and print the receipt. we need to make individual, independent choices. that's how we'll change the world.


As the Earth slowly warms, crazier and crazier weather patterns will emerge, and possibly become our "new normal"!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
personally, i think nature is messed up right now...just like everything else. and if we don't clean up our individual acts, it's going to get worse. i have always been a 'record freak.' had to have hard copies of everything. well guess, what, just went to on-line billing for everything. i pay for everything on-line anyway, and print the receipt. we need to make individual, independent choices. that's how we'll change the world.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11385
214. flsky
Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, when's the nice warm air gonna arrive for good. when you have arthritis and it's cold you are not a happy camper. lots of hot baths. have a nice evening everyone and thanks for all the great information!

I know what you mean! We are usually in the high 70s, low 80s at this time of year (our best time of year, in my opinion) and we are being cheated out of it! I think we'll probably be sliding right into heat and humidity next - meaning no spring weather for us.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how do ya think i feel we are going from near 70 degrees for like a week now to near 30 degrees on sunday evening for highs with lows on mon and tus in the mid 20's all the trees are budding here with spring flowers popin up even the chinese apple tree is starting to bloom you could see the blooms even though they are small in the highlight of the setting sun today shame the cold is gonna kill off that early growth but nature can be cruel sometimes and we have nothing to say about it just deal with it


Dallas-Ft Worth, TX is at 32.5N latitude.

Toronto, ON is at 42N latitude.

Cold air incursions, with temps below 0C/32F happen in S Canada until late Apr/early May.

Cold air incursions, with temps below 0C/32F happen in N Central TX until mid Mar. Our last freeze was on 2-26-10. Our normal temps are 69F/48F or 21C/9C for today! We also have all our trees blooming, albeit, they're 3 weeks late. Normally, by mid/late Mar all the leaves are out on the trees! Gotta love this "Modiki El Nino"!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
212. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:


I bet Hugh from "Ice Road Truckers" is gonna be pee-oe'd



Ice road trucking ended early this year. Saw in the news last week they plucked a driver out with a helicopter.

I think we are in for a record breaking melt year.
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211. flsky
Quoting Grothar:
What I think may be a good idea, is some night when the blog is a little slow, some of you who have been through severe storms should put in some tips of what people need. Things that might be overlooked, like some plywood for inside the house in case a window breaks or moving glass objects in the house that might fly around. Things like that. It could be very helpful to us all if we could get advice from the experienceoe of others.

My former neighbor, who lived in my building before I did in 2004, had her "green house" window blow off. This is the type of window that reaches beyond the outside wall so as to get more sunlight. Luckily, she had sheet plastic and duct tape to seal it off. Unfortunately, however, her stove was destroyed before she could get it secured.
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Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, when's the nice warm air gonna arrive for good. when you have arthritis and it's cold you are not a happy camper. lots of hot baths. have a nice evening everyone and thanks for all the great information!


Thankfully, I am 48 and I do not have arthritis, yet! In winters like this, we will have weird temperature swings until mid to late April. We may actually freeze AGAIN this Sun/Mon morning and it would not surprise me to see a freeze again in early April!!

Then, when summer finally gets here, it will be a "blast furnace"!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:
Just a GREAT WAY to start SPRING?????

how do ya think i feel we are going from near 70 degrees for like a week now to near 30 degrees on sunday evening for highs with lows on mon and tus in the mid 20's all the trees are budding here with spring flowers popin up even the chinese apple tree is starting to bloom you could see the blooms even though they are small in the highlight of the setting sun today shame the cold is gonna kill off that early growth but nature can be cruel sometimes and we have nothing to say about it just deal with it
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Quoting bappit:
Snow for D? Get out!


Tell me about it!! We finally have had a few days where temps actually were a few degrees above normal, we actually have been in the 65-75F range here in Arlington, TX for the last 2 weeks, THEN THIS??? SNOW???
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting bappit:
Snow for D? Get out!

yeah, when's the nice warm air gonna arrive for good. when you have arthritis and it's cold you are not a happy camper. lots of hot baths. have a nice evening everyone and thanks for all the great information!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11385
Snow for D? Get out!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a GREAT WAY to start SPRING?????
Portion of the DFW, TX Area Forecast Discussion from 4:02PM TD:

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. WHETHER IT
ACTUALLY DOES SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THUS ESSENTIALLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKS. AS MENTIONED...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
THE TRACK FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION
THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING FOR A COUPLE RUNS NOW. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...BUT FOR NOW THIS FORECAST WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS TRACK. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SNOW
OVER OVER THE NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES. GIVEN THE MODELS REALLY
HAVE NOT SETTLED ON A TRACK LATITUDE YET...CONFIDENCE IN SNOW IS
LOW AND THUS TOO EARLY TO ENTERTAIN IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS.
REGARDLESS OF SNOW POTENTIAL...MOST OF THE REGION WILL CONTEND
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.


Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Stuff,..yup dats what a Trucker in The Artic most Likely would say,.."Stuff".

But he definitely has the Driving thing down.

He's a Bear ya know,eh?





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
I bet Hugh doesn't buy that global warming stuff.
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Specail comment on health care tonight for the full hour by Olbermann on Countdown.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in 5 years arctic may very well be near total ice free conditions by mid summer period our local head forecaster for all of canada is claiming most of canada if not all will have prolonged heat for the summer with a very dry pattern which may infact become a full blown drought by the start of august but like everything else we wait to see how the spring and early summer plays out but i got a feelin we are in store for one long hot dry summer


I bet Hugh from "Ice Road Truckers" is gonna be pee-oe'd

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089


AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Issued at 5:01 am EST Friday 19 March 2010. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 4.


IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1845 UTC 18/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 157.6E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [200 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [50 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/0600: 18.1S 156.4E: 040 [075]: 065 [120]: 969
+24: 19/1800: 19.1S 154.4E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 961
+36: 20/0600: 19.7S 151.7E: 100 [190]: 075 [140]: 960
+48: 20/1800: 20.1S 148.9E: 135 [250]: 080 [150]: 956
+60: 21/0600: 20.3S 146.2E: 180 [340]: 030 [055]: 996
+72: 21/1800: 20.4S 143.7E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 999
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours. Dvorak analysis
based on curved band with 0.9 wrap for DT 3.5. MET is 3.5, PAT is 4.0. CI held
at 4.5. The recent weakening trend is most likely due to cooler sea surface
temperatures less than 26C caused by ocean upwelling resulting from the slow
movement in the past 48 hours. Models indicate upper conditions will become more
favourable by Saturday for increased venting and deepening.

Following a prolonged period of light steering, a mid-level ridge is beginning
to develop south of the system and Ului should begin to accelerate and track to
the west southwest towards the Queensland coast later today.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I bet in the next 5 years we will set a new minimum for summer arctic ice coverage.
in 5 years arctic may very well be near total ice free conditions by mid summer period our local head forecaster for all of canada is claiming most of canada if not all will have prolonged heat for the summer with a very dry pattern which may infact become a full blown drought by the start of august but like everything else we wait to see how the spring and early summer plays out but i got a feelin we are in store for one long hot dry summer
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HPC Interactive Medium Range Products Browser

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
SEVERE THREAT INCREASES DAY 3 SAT

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CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ENSEMBLE FOR CINDY,7 weeks earlier than Katrina
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Ului
2010-03-18 00:00 -- 2010-03-18 22:45


Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Powerful thunderstorms firing for the first time in days over Ului...but northwesterly shear and cold water in the wake of her path is resulting in the center being located under the NW side of the convection.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681

Ului
2010-03-15 00:00 -- 2010-03-16 00:00

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
I no its only Pre-Season Baseball but, the Rays and Yanks are on the MLB network now!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It is quite interesting how high the global temperature averages are considering that we are at the deepest solar minimum in several decades. Record high global temperatures by 2012/2013 look very likely, especially if augmented by an El Nino. It will be very interesting to see what temps are like in 2015-2016 at the peak!


Not really that surprising....the correlation of the sun to warming is less than the correlation of the oceans to warming, meaning the oceans have far more effect, and they have been going up since 1979 when the warm PDO began. They have now leveled off and this El Nino is putting a neat spike on top. Atmospheric temperatures have also spiked accordingly. But remember the northern hemisphere February was only 26th warmest as Dr. Masters said, and the solar minimum did probably have a hand in that. There were many things going into this winter that made it cold.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Probably one of the most important advice on obtaining water in emergencies. Too large to paste, but worth looking at the link.




Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
181. Oskee
Thank you. I've added the bookmark.

It's always the case, the people who don't need it get it and vice versa. I'm lucky, we have a tank. Depending on the area you're in, you may only get water 2-3 times for the week. The problem I have is, rationing the water to last until we have water to fill back up the tank.
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Quoting Grothar:


You seem to be on a roll,Pat. I'll leave it to you. You seem more adept at this than I. This is really important. It was amazing how many injuries occurred after Wilma. More than the actual storm itself. Go with it!


We all can offer info in this respect Grothar,..so any info from any credible source is ALWAYS welcomed
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Now is the time to check your insurance policies. Make the changes you need. And make sure you have "Loss Of Use" insurance included!


Good point, Geoff. I've heard of people who lost thousands when they had to stay somewhere after the storm.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
And if upgrading to FLOOD INSURANCE,REMEMBER THERE IS A 30 DAY WAITING PERIOD AFTER SIGNING.

So act now if your going that route this season
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Patrap:
After all the Wind dies down and the Storm exits,..the real work begins in earnest for Thousands





Dealing With the Aftermath of a Hurricane
by Rebecca Caito
Rhode Island Sea Grant

P1270

Safety After a Hurricane

Major health and safety hazards remain even after a hurricane's wind and rain have passed. Injuries can happen to anyone dealing with the aftermath of a major storm, so it is wise to be overly cautious.

Debris-filled streets are dangerous; therefore, walk or drive with caution. Prior to entering a building, check for structural damage. Make sure it is not in danger of collapse. Turn off any outside gas lines and let house air for several minutes to remove escaping gas. Upon entering a building, do not use open flame as a light source: Use a battery-operated flashlight.

Never leave young children alone or allow them to play in damaged buildings or in areas that might be unsafe. Wear protective clothing on legs, arms, feet, and hands while cleaning up debris. Wear rubber gloves while scrubbing flood damaged interiors and furniture.


You seem to be on a roll,Pat. I'll leave it to you. You seem more adept at this than I. This is really important. It was amazing how many injuries occurred after Wilma. More than the actual storm itself. Go with it!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Now is the time to check your insurance policies. Make the changes you need. And make sure you have "Loss Of Use" insurance included!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
Quoting Oskee:
Another good tip for homes with louvre windows. thread garbage bags (in and out) and close the window. It prevent leaks.


Good one!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
174. Oskee
Another good tip for homes with louvre windows. thread garbage bags (in and out) and close the window. It prevent leaks.
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Quoting Oskee:
Evening all. I read that there may be rain in the forecast for Haiti. Is there any hope of rain for Jamaica? There are terrible drought conditions here.


You may get a scattered shower or two develop over the mountains there, but I'm afraid Hispaniola and PR are getting the most of this. Another chance may come in 4-5 days as a nor'easter drops the tail of a front down into the NW Caribbean.

Your drought conditions will start to improve and reverse as the El Nino dies this spring. Most of the models have you going into highly above-normal precipitation as early as April, and certainly by May.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Perfect example of what I am talking about Pat. The picture you showed of the blue tarp held down by what I assume are 2X2's. Good idea. I also use 2X2's to secure my wood fence doors. A little extra strength on them.

My mother's family,(old time Floridians, always had bamboo or Arica palms or Johnson palms in front of all their windows. They said it was a good wind break and prevented flying debris. (This of course was before impact glass) Hey, they had to do something.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
After all the Wind dies down and the Storm exits,..the real work begins in earnest for Thousands





Dealing With the Aftermath of a Hurricane
by Rebecca Caito
Rhode Island Sea Grant


P1270

Safety After a Hurricane

Major health and safety hazards remain even after a hurricane's wind and rain have passed. Injuries can happen to anyone dealing with the aftermath of a major storm, so it is wise to be overly cautious.

Debris-filled streets are dangerous; therefore, walk or drive with caution. Prior to entering a building, check for structural damage. Make sure it is not in danger of collapse. Turn off any outside gas lines and let house air for several minutes to remove escaping gas. Upon entering a building, do not use open flame as a light source: Use a battery-operated flashlight.

Never leave young children alone or allow them to play in damaged buildings or in areas that might be unsafe. Wear protective clothing on legs, arms, feet, and hands while cleaning up debris. Wear rubber gloves while scrubbing flood damaged interiors and furniture.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Tomas in the South Pacific and Tomas in the Atlantic would be very ironic.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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