Globe has 2nd or 6th warmest February on record; Fiji hard-hit by Tomas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:51 PM GMT on March 18, 2010

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The globe recorded its sixth warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated February 2010 the second warmest, behind 1998. The year-to-date period, January - February, is the 5th or 2nd warmest such period on record, according to NOAA and NASA, respectively. NOAA rated February 2010 global ocean temperatures as the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. February land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 26th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground--February 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 3rd highest in the 44-year snow cover record. For the entire winter, the Northern Hemisphere had the 2nd greatest snow cover on record, the U.S. had its greatest snow cover, and Eurasia had its 4th most.


Figure 1. departure of surface temperature from average for the globe during February 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the second warmest on record in February, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. Both groups also rated the winter of 2009 - 2010 the 2nd warmest winter on record. The record warmest February and winter occurred 1998.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average--in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño--on March 14, 2010, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for all of February and the first two weeks of March. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that have helped maintain the current El Niño have weakened since March 1, but are probably strong enough to maintain the current moderate El Niño conditions through mid-April. Some slow weakening of El Niño is likely beginning in early April. It is highly uncertain what may happen to El Niño at that point, with the models split between predicting a weak El Niño, neutral conditions, or a La Niña by the height of hurricane season (August-September-October). It's worth noting that the last time we had a strong El Niño--the record-strength 1997 - 1998 event--El Niño conditions collapsed suddenly in May 1998, and a La Niña event rapidly developed during the summer of 1998. A similar chain of events is possible this year, as well. However, the El Niño of 1986 - 1987 maintained moderate strength through two consecutive hurricane seasons, and it is possible that this year's El Niño could pull a similar feat. We simply don't have the predictive skill to say what might happen to El Niño this summer.

February sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
February 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of February 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years.

Heavy damage on Fiji from Tropical Cyclone Tomas
Communications are still out to most of the islands in the Fiji devastated by Tropical Cyclone Tomas, but it is apparent that the Category 3 storm caused "overwhelming damage" to the islands that received a direct hit, according to the Associated Press. Tomas, packing winds of up to 130 mph (205 kph) at its center, hit Fiji beginning late Friday. The Lau and Lomaiviti island groups and the northern coast of the second biggest island, Vanua Levu, took the brunt of the storm. Only one death has been reported thus far. Initial reports said 1500 homes were destroyed or damaged and up to 50 percent of facilities in the Lau Group were affected.

I'll have a new post on Friday, when I plan to discuss why the Red River at Fargo, ND is now experiencing a "10-year flood" once every 2.5 years, on average.

Jeff Masters

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Navarre Beach FL took a simpler approach to reconstructing the beaches after 04's Ivan and 05's Dennis and Rita. In some places, Ivan's surge removed 20+ feet of sand beneath the newer beach houses. Just feet away in many cases, an older beach house simply disappeared, pilings and all, gone, looked as though nothing was ever there. Dennis and Rita made a bad situation worse. Instead of a wall, we dredged the sand up and put it back to where it was PLUS built a mound between the houses and the water line. This mound won't stop an Ivan-like surge but will protect the houses, road and other infrastructure from the 15'- surges.
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I have seen the ten miles of Galveston Dike, It seems HUGE and then just ends near a horse pasture. I didn't see anything to stop the water from going around. Why one section of beach needed the huge armor and the next one nothing has to be something I wasn't aware of. My mind went to odd bathymetry focusing waves but are you saying it was budget cuts?
Yeesh.
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Cyclone Ului is down to a tropical storm after 3 straight days of upwelling took her all the way down from a Cat 5. As I mentioned last night, Ului had the chance to re-strengthen quickly, but lost it when her core structure finally caved in. She moved much slower than anyone anticipated, causing more upwelling for a longer time. Her eye totally collapsed about 6 hours before she finally moved over warmer waters. The result was a much smaller storm starting essentially from scratch with no core structure whatsoever. This task is too much for Ului, and her weakening has left upper-level conditions less than perfect to boot.

Some deep convection is firing again but Ului doesn't have the time to accomplish much with what she's got to work with. Queensland can expect a strong tropical storm or minimal Cat 1 at landfall, certainly several large steps down from what they thought they would have to face. Landfall is expected in 24-36 hours between Cannonvale and Townsville. The exact landfall location is hard to pinpoint as the coast is very slanted in that region, making any slight deviation in course affect the landfall location by dozens of miles. Regardless, that entire stretch of coastline will feel the full effects of whatever Ului brings ashore.



And no, that's not half of an eyewall developing, although I know it looks like it. The center is actually to the north of that niche, with most of the convection to the south:

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SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast
(27-member ensemble)
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CaneFever Tropical Season Links,beaucoup
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Cyclone Ului

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But hey,,on the bright side of things..



ITS FRIDAY!!!!! Im in Love


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313. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Tropical Cyclone Ului, CAT 2
11:00 PM EST March 19 2010
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 (983 hPa) located at 18.0S 155.7E or 770 kms east northeast of Mackay and 950 kms east of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category two intensity, is moving to the southwest towards the Queensland coast.

The most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning between Cardwell and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Ayr and Yeppoon later on Saturday, then increase further and extend to Cardwell and to adjacent inland parts on Sunday morning as the cyclone nears the coast.

Heavy rainfall and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast. Dangerous surf conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24hrs

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center in northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.0S 153.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 19.7S 151.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 20.4S 146.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 18.6S 140.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Ayr to Yeppoon.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Ayr.

Additional Information
==========================
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to northwesterly wind shear, however shear has appeared to weaken over the past 6 hours. Dvorak analysis still based on shear pattern, the low level circulation being within approx. 0.5 degrees of convection yielding a DT of 3.0, MET/PT=3.0, DT=3.0 with CI being held higher at 3.5 and max wind at 55 knots. The system has taken on a more curved band structure on most recent satellite images.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west southwest on Saturday and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is held at category two through to landfall based on the prospect of the shear continuing to ease during Saturday, arresting the weakening trend. It remains possible that the Dvorak based intensity may decrease further in the short term, the combination of convection persisting to the south aided by WSW movement of 10 knots is expected to maintain the maximum winds of at least 50 knots to the south of the system.
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Quoting pottery:
Interesting stuff on the Ike Dike.
But, go ahead and build it, I say.
Since when did anyone need to be rational in these things? A project like this will surely be welcomed as it will employ thousands of people and provide work for all the equipment that can be found, for years.
And dont forget that the taxpayer in Oregon and New Hampshire and Ohio get to help fund it too.
And dont forget, that the next big blow will clear it all away anyway, so the negative effects on tourism wont be long lasting anyway.
Just imagine the boost to the southern economy!
heheheheh



Easy to state that when your thousands of Miles away from the Impact area,..

And we all pay in the end with Insurance hikes,Fed assistance,..and more. Without the Dike,..the Super Storms that are to come and are occurring,will continue to take the toll like Ike did,,just a strong Cat 2,pushing a Cat 3 surge.

Ike also took 80 lives as well.

Hard to put a figure on Life too.
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Interesting stuff on the Ike Dike.
But, go ahead and build it, I say.
Since when did anyone need to be rational in these things? A project like this will surely be welcomed as it will employ thousands of people and provide work for all the equipment that can be found, for years.
And dont forget that the taxpayer in Oregon and New Hampshire and Ohio get to help fund it too.
And dont forget, that the next big blow will clear it all away anyway, so the negative effects on tourism wont be long lasting anyway.
Just imagine the boost to the southern economy!
heheheheh
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Hurricane Gustav makes landfall around 5 a.m. Sept. 1, 2008.



Experts say storm modeling needs improvement

By Nikki Buskey
Staff Writer

Published: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 at 1:00 p.m.
Last Modified: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 at 1:28 p.m.

( page 1 of 3 )

BATON ROUGE

During hurricanes and tropical storms, surge predictions can vary in accuracy, and just a few feet can make a big difference for communities like Terrebonne and Lafourche.

Related Links:

* Coastal groups urge elevation and relocation
* Information essential for planning
* Researchers: Data belies flood risk
* Forecasters to use new way to predict hurricane's punch
* Coastal official says federal interest in restoration improving
* Could a quake hit here? Some already have
* New levees will be tested by encroaching Gulf

A day before Hurricane Ike struck Terrebonne and Lafourche in 2008, storm-surge predictions varied from 5 to 8 feet for Terrebonne.

The actual surge was closer to 10 feet, which overtopped all of the community's levees.

Storm surge accounts for 90 percent of deaths during hurricanes and has done extensive damage to the Louisiana coast. A National Hurricane Center scientist said Tuesday that the ability to accurately predict storm surge needs to improve so the threat can be efficiently communicated to coastal communities.

Jamie Rhome, a storm-surge specialist with the National Hurricane Center, spoke at the 2010 Central Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Conference in Baton Rouge. The two-day conference brings together federal hurricane experts, academics, emergency officials and local government representatives to discuss issues facing the state during the next hurricane season.

Among local officials attending were Terrebonne Levee Director Reggie Dupre, South Lafourche Levee Director Windell Curole, North Lafourche Levee Manager Dwayne Bourgeois and Terrebonne Emergency Director Earl Eues.

When local emergency officials call me, they want to know: How much water will there be? When will it come and when will it leave? What will the impacts be to my area? And how should I respond? Rhome said.

Those may seem like basic questions, but exactly how to get those answers is still being studied, Rhome said. Various agencies are working to factor tides and waves into the models they run to predict storm-surge risks.

The National Weather Service now includes predictions of storm surge in its hurricane warnings, but Rhome said they've proved hard for the average citizen to understand.

That's because the predictions don't take into consideration the height of the tide during flooding or the size of waves that a storm could produce. Local emergency officials are left to calculate for themselves how those factors could increase flooding risks.

The National Weather Service also didn't subtract land elevations from their predictions, which could cause confusion for lay people looking at the information, Rhome said. A hurricane prediction might say that Houma will experience 10 to 12 feet of storm surge, which sounds dire. But to get a more accurate forecast, you would need to subtract the elevation above sea level of your home or business. If the building sits at 10 feet above sea level, for example, you might see little to no water at all.

Rhome said that percent of the calls he receives are related to that confusion.

Terrebonne Emergency Preparedness Director Earl Eues said during hurricanes Gustav and Ike the parish began using computer models of storm surge adjusted for elevation because they're much easier for the general person to understand.

Joseph Suhayda, a storm-surge modeler working with Louisiana State University, said scientists are working to better determine how landscape features like roads, barrier islands, marshes and levees influence storm-surge flooding.

Officials had suggested in the past that every 2.7 square feet of marsh would knock down storm surge by 1 foot. We now know that's not true, Suhayda said.

He added that open basins will allow floodwaters to disperse better, and if levees are constructed across basins, the fact that floodwaters will pile up against them needs to be taken into account.

Once the Morganza-to-the-Gulf hurricane-protection system is built across Terrebonne, for example, it will likely cause floodwaters to be piled up against the vulnerable west side of south Lafourche's Larose-to-Golden Meadow levee system.

South Lafourche is in the process of raising the southwest side of that system to 14 feet.

Rhome said that with more and more people relocating to coastal areas, there's a bigger push than ever before to better predict storm surge.

Between 1980 and 2003, population density in coastal areas has gone up 28 percent. Seventy-two percent of the nations ports, 27 percent of major roads and 9 percent of major railways are at or below 4 feet above sea level. That's a height very much at risk of major flooding.

That's over half of our economic productivity located in the coastal zone, Rhome said.This is not just a social issue; it's an economic issue.

Nikki Buskey can be reached at 857-2205 or nicole.buskey@houmatoday.com.
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309. MTWX
Quoting jeffs713:
The "Ike Dike" is a total boondoggle. To build it would cost on the order of $8-22 Billion, would take anywhere from 2-10 years, and would dramatically impact everything from shipping to recreation to fishing in the area. Not to mention, many of the proposed plans would do absolutely nothing for areas outside the coverage, and could possibly make it significantly worse for those outside the dike's coverage.

Many of the lives lost during Ike were people who chose to stay, completely ignoring the dire warnings put out by the authorities. The damage on Galveston island was due people living on a barrier island - something a fancy 17-foot dike won't fix.

Also, another toll that the dike will take is that of tourism on the island. With the dike in place, tourism on the island will likely change, as both the view, wave action, and beaches will drastically change.

I agree...
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Quoting Skyepony:
Massive dike proposal not new for Galveston

Associated Press - March 19, 2010 8:24 AM ET

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) - Another time, another hurricane led to plans for a massive dike to protect Galveston and Bolivar Peninsula from future deadly storms.

The 1900 hurricane that walloped Galveston claimed at least 6,000 lives in the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

A 1902 blueprint, discovered at the Galveston District Clerk's Office weeks after 2008's Hurricane Ike, outlined a sprawling dike proposal that never became a reality.

The Houston Chronicle reported Friday that the nearly century-old plan would have put Galveston behind a seawall that extended to the bay side of the island.

A Galveston seawall built in 1904, and extended several times, covers about 10 miles.

Ike swamped parts of the city and left more than three dozen people dead in southeast Texas.

The post-Ike proposal, from Texas A&M-Galveston professor William Merrell, features a 55-mile barrier, 17 feet high, to be built along the Gulf coast.

Information from: Houston Chronicle, http://www.houstonchronicle.com
The "Ike Dike" is a total boondoggle. To build it would cost on the order of $8-22 Billion, would take anywhere from 2-10 years, and would dramatically impact everything from shipping to recreation to fishing in the area. Not to mention, many of the proposed plans would do absolutely nothing for areas outside the coverage, and could possibly make it significantly worse for those outside the dike's coverage.

Many of the lives lost during Ike were people who chose to stay, completely ignoring the dire warnings put out by the authorities. The damage on Galveston island was due people living on a barrier island - something a fancy 17-foot dike won't fix.

Also, another toll that the dike will take is that of tourism on the island. With the dike in place, tourism on the island will likely change, as both the view, wave action, and beaches will drastically change.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
Link powerpoint slide of the Ike Dike proposal...

www.guidrynews.com/09January/03009Merrell.pptx
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Quoting Minnemike:
Atmo makes this point time and again that we are dealing with swiss cheese for data to model.

Hehe. Decent analogy, but you're giving our data records a little too much credit. What we actually have in observations is closer to the holes in the swiss...and there all in one corner of the block.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
305. Skyepony (Mod)
Massive dike proposal not new for Galveston

Associated Press - March 19, 2010 8:24 AM ET

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) - Another time, another hurricane led to plans for a massive dike to protect Galveston and Bolivar Peninsula from future deadly storms.

The 1900 hurricane that walloped Galveston claimed at least 6,000 lives in the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

A 1902 blueprint, discovered at the Galveston District Clerk's Office weeks after 2008's Hurricane Ike, outlined a sprawling dike proposal that never became a reality.

The Houston Chronicle reported Friday that the nearly century-old plan would have put Galveston behind a seawall that extended to the bay side of the island.

A Galveston seawall built in 1904, and extended several times, covers about 10 miles.

Ike swamped parts of the city and left more than three dozen people dead in southeast Texas.

The post-Ike proposal, from Texas A&M-Galveston professor William Merrell, features a 55-mile barrier, 17 feet high, to be built along the Gulf coast.

Information from: Houston Chronicle, http://www.houstonchronicle.com
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hi guys
check it out





What does it mean?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I think I got a "bum" calendar from Office Depot....First day of Spring is noted as tommorow; maybe it was printed in China..... :)
Tomorrow, 1732 UTC...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equinox
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News, info, and lottsa great music tailor made for cruising sailors knocking about the tropics...for your listening pleasure while blogging...

Link
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Quoting Skyepony:
Actually Spring starts tomorrow..

Vernal Equinox Mar 20 2010 1:32 PM EDT
Summer Solstice Jun 21 2010 7:28 AM EDT
Autumnal Equinox Sep 22 2010 11:09 PM EDT
Winter Solstice Dec 21 2010 6:38 PM EST
NOAA


Thanks; I guess the Chinese got it right after all.......
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Quoting StormW:


Actually, spring is today


I think I got a "bum" calendar from Office Depot....First day of Spring is noted as tommorow; maybe it was printed in China..... :)
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
296. Skyepony (Mod)
Actually Spring starts tomorrow..

Vernal Equinox Mar 20 2010 1:32 PM EDT
Summer Solstice Jun 21 2010 7:28 AM EDT
Autumnal Equinox Sep 22 2010 11:09 PM EDT
Winter Solstice Dec 21 2010 6:38 PM EST
NOAA
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294. Skyepony (Mod)
Ului has steadily weakened..
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Good Morning. Still waiting for "Spring" in North Florida........It's official on the calendar tommorow but temps still a bit cool for this time of the year and the majority of the flower buds have not fully opended yet; just "waiting" there to pop open when the temps rise a little more.
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the cyclone moving toward queensland been around for a long while and is carrying alot moisture look out for maneating crocs on waterslides right after the storm passes tgif
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Again, it's amazingly warm in those areas where they no longer actually measure temperatures, but interpolate them, after adjusting them.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:15pm EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Ayr to Yeppoon.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Ayr, extending to
adjacent inland parts.

At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
850 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1010 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category two intensity, is moving to the southwest
towards the Queensland coast.

The most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning
between Cardwell and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by
landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Ayr and Yeppoon later on Saturday, then
increase further and extend to Cardwell and to adjacent inland parts on Sunday
morning as the cyclone nears the coast.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone tonight and Saturday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current
for these conditions.

People between Ayr and Yeppoon should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight
hours.
People between Cardwell and Ayr and adjacent inland parts should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 156.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 984 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Friday 19 March.


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0729 UTC 19/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.4S
Longitude: 156.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [221 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1800: 18.7S 154.3E: 045 [085]: 055 [100]: 983
+24: 20/0600: 19.6S 151.9E: 075 [140]: 050 [095]: 986
+36: 20/1800: 20.1S 149.2E: 105 [195]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 21/0600: 20.5S 146.6E: 135 [250]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 21/1800: 20.5S 144.3E: 165 [305]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 22/0600: 20.1S 142.2E: 195 [360]: 020 [035]: 1006
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to northwesterly
wind shear of about 20 knots. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern, the low
level circulation being witihin 0.5 of convection yielding a DT of 3.0,
MET/PT=2.5, DT=3.0 with CI being held higher at 3.5 and max wind at 55 knots.
This is consistent with latest AMSU estimates.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west
southwest on Saturday and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on
Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there
is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is held at category two through to landfall based on the
prospect of the shear easing during Saturday, arresting the weakening trend. It
remains possible that the Dvorak based intensity may decrease further in the
short term, the combination of convection persisting to the south aided by WSW
movement of 10 knots is expected to maintain the maximum winds of at least 50
knots to the south of the system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
Invest 98W in the WPAC

located near 3.0N 155.9E

pretty close to the equator

anyway night everyone
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866
Looks like Ului won't be able to make it to Cat 2 like I thought. She's a tropical storm right now. What went wrong was she upwelled cold water for so long that her core structure finally collapsed. If you noticed earlier this morning, the eye disappeared entirely just 6 hours before the new convection started popping. This took her out of the big league for good, and she is now having to start from scratch. The LLC is partially exposed now too. Major structural collapse due to cold water upwelling will be what saves Australia. There is still a chance for re-intensification into a hurricane before landfall in 36 hours, but nothing major.



Goodnight all.
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@ Patrap. Those side-by-side gulf SST graphs in post 275 have a different scale. It's hard to compare them visually because of that.
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the thing about natural cycles.. they don't take us out of the equation. it's always an addition. now, is it a nominal addition or an impacting one? we don't know. variability is a certainty though, as records show.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
If a storm this year "shoots the gap" and comes up through the loop, it could get UGLY.... I have to wonder though ... wouldnt the colder anomalies over the NE pacific cause troughing over the US and push most storms out to fish land?

Interesting perception...yeah, but El Nino is dying, so those anomalies won't last long either.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its march 19th its 50 degrees outside we should at 26 or 27 for this time of year


It's 50 here in Sarasota
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Figure 1-- Temperature fluctuation (mean annual temperatures) in central Europe Tertiary time, the past 60 million years. Except for a peak in early Eocene time, temperature decreased throughout the Tertiary. Beginning in late Pliocene/early Pleistocene time, with the onset of glacial conditions, temperatures fluctuated widely, ranging from full glacial to interglacial conditions. The modern condition is approximately +4 to +5ºC. Modified and adapted from Anderson and Borns (1997).
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Bluemle et al. present several lessons. First, over the last 60 million years, in central Europe, temperature has dropped by more than 20OC

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none of these temperature changes is human induced, suggesting that the fourth-order changes that might be induced by human activities may be transitory and of relatively low importance. However, there is a major point about climate to be made in context of the Pleistocene record. The graphs clearly show a range of variability, but it is important to note that cold periods are at least as frequent and perhaps longer lasting than warm periods.
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Yellowstone should blow soon enough .. then it won't matter who was right about global warming .. atleast not for a long while =P
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Quoting Seastep:


I am glad that we are studying it, too.

I don't agree with the impacts, though. Species adapt. Not just ours. If you have a steep change over a sustained period of time, I'd agree, but the Earth has never seen that kind of change, other than going into or out of an ice age.

Slow increases in temp over time won't affect anyone's way of life.

Theory and predictions have been put out there. So far, the observations do not support it.
. And, the more data we get, the less that green line will move. Will be very hard to validate after 10 or so more years. I am watching and waiting to see how observations match with predictions. So far, not so good. And that's the long term trend-line, from 1979



what i'm seeing here is a numbers game and a narrow scope of supporting claims. the fact is we have missing data to give us strong model validation, as well as incomplete theories of atmospheric behavioral relationships those models are based on. what is to be gained through efforts to invalidate an assumed invalid model? Atmo makes this point time and again that we are dealing with swiss cheese for data to model. so the effort here to invalidate the IPCC, i believe, is misguided.

we know properties about CO2 that indicates greenhouse effect attributes. we know relationships between high CO2 concentrations and temperature extremes. we don't know the chicken or egg yet, and I'll take none of that 'it's the sun stupid'... anything that ends in ...stupid, is well, "". We know solar cycles affect temperatures, but nothing here on Earth affects solar cycles. Any observations of long term trends in warming spanning over solar cycles ought indicate that local planetary contributors to temperatures are at play. i don't think we can dismiss rising concentrations of a known greenhouse gas simply because we cannot come up with supporting models due to our minimal long-term global climatology understanding and knowledge. i don't think it's intelligent to assume that there's no impact by CO2 until modeling agrees. the atmosphere is entirely too complex, yet very enclosed and interconnected from a planetary perspective.

and then that broad stroke on species adaptation... keep in mind that yes, those things occur but at scales of years beyond our lifetimes. it's an issue for us, because we each are here living our lives and valuing all rights to life assumed endowed. with millions and billions of us waltzing around here pumping the C02, we need to think about things in the scope of our lifetimes, and one would hope a thoughtfulness for our following generations too. so i feel your point is moot while we're in control of the agent of concern. now, big volcano goes and well, that's Earth dealing us a card where fatalism will be useful. but not now, not with this.
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well its 1 am time for sleep TGIF last day of the work week
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
If a storm this year "shoots the gap" and comes up through the loop, it could get UGLY.... I have to wonder though ... wouldnt the colder anomalies over the NE pacific cause troughing over the US and push most storms out to fish land?
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its march 19th its 50 degrees outside we should at 26 or 27 for this time of year
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
strong looop current eddy
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
2009




2010

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Quoting StormW:


LOL1

Guess I'll be seein' ya in Orlando.


It Will be here before ya know it.

Mark your calendar for the 2010 conference
March 29-April 2 * Hilton Orlando, Orlando, Florida






Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
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Not here or to the West yet Chief..,still Thursday night.


Evening..to yas
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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