An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S., warmest on record in Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on March 12, 2010

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The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.


Figure 1. Winter temperatures for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold February in the U.S.
February temperatures were 2.2°F below average across the contiguous U.S., making it the 29th coldest February in the 115-year record. For the second month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. Florida had its 4th coldest February on record. Seven other states had February temperatures between 5th and 8th coldest on record: Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Maine had its 3rd warmest February, New Hampshire its 5th, and Washington its 6th. Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in February.

Warmest and driest winter on record in Canada
Canada had its warmest winter on record, 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average, according to Environment Canada. The previous record was 3.9°C above average, set in 2005-2006. Canada also experienced its driest winter on record this year, with precipitation 22.0% below normal. The previous driest winter was 1977-1978 (20.1% below normal). Canadian weather records go back 63 years, to 1948. David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, warned of potential "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this summer due to the warm, dry winter. Phillips blamed the warm winter weather on El Niño and the severe loss of arctic sea ice last fall. The winter season in Canada has warmed, on average, by 2.5°C (4.5°F) over the past 63 years.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average in Canada for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Brazilian tropical/subtropical storm named "Anita"
The South Atlantic tropical/subtropical storm we've been tracking this week has moved over colder waters and has now transitioned to a regular extratropical storm. Earlier this week, the storm became just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic. According to a statement put out by MetSul Meteorologia, a Brazilian weather company, this storm is now named "Tropical Storm Anita:"

The regional weather centers and the private weather enterprises of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, southernmost Brazilian states, in a joint decision, named Anita the rare tropical storm of March 9th and 10th in the coastal areas of the region. The name was chosen considering a historic figure of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, both states affected by the tropical cyclone. Anita Garibaldi (1821-1849) was a heroine of the Farroupilha Revolution (1835-1845), one of the most important events in the Brazilian history that took place in the Southern part of the country. Anita was used in the past to designate tropical cyclones in other basins: North Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Next week, we need to keep an eye on northeastern Australia, where Tropical Cyclone 20 may pay a visit. The storm is under light shear and warm waters, and is forecast to increase to Category 4 strength by Monday. Also of concern is Tropical Cyclone 19, which is expected to hit Fiji as a Category 2 storm early next week.

First tornado death of the year for the U.S
A tornado that hit Cleburne, Arkansas on Wednesday caused three serious injuries and the tornado season's first fatality, a 79-year old man sheltering in his single story wood-frame home. Yesterday, a suspected tornado ripped through Haines City, Florida destroying four condos and damaging fifteen others. One person was injured. Two other tornadoes caused minor damage in central Florida. The severe weather outbreak continues today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather over portions of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. After today, the severe weather action should diminish for at least five days over the U.S. The major U.S. weather story this weekend will be flooding in the Mid-Atlantic, where heavy rains of up to four inches are expected. Soils are already saturated and the heavy snows from this winter's major snowstorms will also melt, likely creating moderate flooding problems over much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Links to follow:
Interactive tornado map
Severe weather page


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Tornado, Saline County, AR (waltdsgirl)
Tornado, Saline County, AR
deluge of rain... (happytobealive)
We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
deluge of rain...
wind damage (Openmike)
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.
wind damage

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388. JRRP

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
Quoting Hurricanes101:


look how wide the cone is LOL
its not a cone circle lines within storm points are what is used to determine areas of concearn this really is just common sense
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


look how wide the cone is LOL
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Ului has definitely made quick work of the first 4 hurricane categories. Ului is working off of a nearly perfect outflow pattern around the storm, combined with very warm and deep SSTs. The intensification is truly remarkable, and is a perfect example of what a tropical cyclone does when no limits are put on it. As the forecast reflects, an approaching upper shortwave from the southwest will weaken the ridge by 72 hours and put Ului in an environment of weak steering currents. Ului will slowly follow the weakness in the ridge southward, weakening a bit as it does due to outflow being restricted by the trough. It remains to be seen if Ului will threaten the Australian mainland, but I think there is a good chance they could be facing a major cyclone, although likely not a catastrophic 4 or 5, in several days.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
The ECMWF global model has been ramped up to T1279, and you can freely access the grids with a 48-hour delay.

Here is the March 11 12Z forecast for Ului and Tomas for 850 hPa wind speed. Had to use that level since the minimum SLP for Ului in the model is 905 mb, truly remarkable. GFS has no chance to compete with that resolution. GFS is T384 vs ECMWF T1279.

There are bonafide Category 5+ winds.

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have the first category 5 of 2010!


Ului is expected to peak out with winds of 180 mph!!!


Update: Ului is the second category 5 of 2010. Edzani back in January was the first.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
TPPS10 PGTW 140026

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI)

B. 13/2330Z

C. 12.7S

D. 161.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE WITH CDG SURROUNDING
CNVCTN YIELDS 7.0 DT. PT YIELDS 6.0. MET YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1846Z 12.9S 162.3E SSMI
13/1854Z 13.1S 162.3E SSMS
13/1955Z 12.9S 162.2E SSMS


ROSS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
complete update

WTPS51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCP MIL 20P SWP 100313125614
2010031312 20P ULUI 005 02 295 07 SATL 020
T000 131S 1630E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 127S 1616E 130 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 126S 1602E 145 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 126S 1587E 150 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 126S 1575E 150 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 130S 1558E 140 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 134S 1548E 125
T120 139S 1542E 120
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 163.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 163.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.7S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.6S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.6S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.6S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.0S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.4S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.9S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 162.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20P HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFI-
CATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 105
KNOTS, AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 115
KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED WITH A MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND SLOWLY DECREA-
SING AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DIMINISHES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ULUI.
AROUND TAU 72 THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO HINDER THE POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, CAUSING THE SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY BE A MINOR IMPACT TO THE SYSTEM AS
IT MAINTAINS AS A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS,
WITH TC 20P TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, EXTENDING TO NEW
CALEDONIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE THE STR OVER AUSTRALIA TO WEAKEN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY,
LEADING TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 72. ULUI IS EX-
PECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO
UPDATES.//
2010031000 142S1686E 15
2010031006 143S1683E 20
2010031012 145S1681E 25
2010031018 145S1678E 30
2010031100 145S1674E 30
2010031106 145S1672E 30
2010031112 147S1669E 30
2010031118 148S1666E 35
2010031200 147S1662E 40
2010031206 144S1657E 45
2010031212 141S1652E 45
2010031218 139S1647E 50
2010031300 136S1641E 55
2010031300 136S1641E 55
2010031306 134S1636E 65
2010031306 134S1636E 65
2010031312 131S1630E 105
2010031312 131S1630E 105
2010031312 131S1630E 105
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
379. Inyo
Quoting ftpiercecane:
Post 229, It is sad when the gov can consider spending millions of dollars on a small island in the virgin islands to turn into a park instead of using the resources for national security. Sorry for the politics and back to lurking on weather. Thanks again for the article Storm.


yeah, great argument, complaining about preserving land which is like .000000001% of the budget and greatly improves the quality of life for everyone in the country. I agree that the government wastes money but couldn't you find a better example of 'waste' than preserving national parkland?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
378. JRRP
Quoting altesticstorm10:

March 12, 2010

March 11, 2010


April 11, 2005

i hope that SST cool a bit at least
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
377. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3rd Category 5 in the southern hemisphere. One in each region (southwest Indian, Australian region, Southern Pacific)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
375. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F)
12.7ºS 161.7ºE - 115 knots 930 hPa

Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului (930 hPa) located at 12.7S 161.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots. Position GOOD based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-cirlce
150 NM from the center elsewhere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree completely, StormW.

Just sync-wise with the various cycles/oscillations.

Could be extremely active, and again, I can't put my finger on it, but leaning the other direction.

Just think it will either be very active or not so much. Don't think it will be near average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow.





indeed!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
371. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
370. JRRP

Magnitude 6.5 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time

* Sunday, March 14, 2010 at 00:57:45 UTC
* Sunday, March 14, 2010 at 09:57:45 AM at epicenter

Location 1.800°S, 128.200°E
Depth 72 km (44.7 miles) set by location program
Region KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA
Distances

* 209 km (130 miles) N (1°) from Ambon, Moluccas, Indonesia
* 303 km (188 miles) SSE (163°) from Ternate, Moluccas, Indonesia
* 359 km (223 miles) WSW (253°) from Sorong, Irian Jaya, Indonesia
* 808 km (502 miles) NNE (21°) from DILI, East Timor

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST=032, Nph=032, Dmin=286.7 km, Rmss=1.42 sec, Gp= 65°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=1
Source

* West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS

Event ID at00852826
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
Hey StormW.

Not sure about this season. Things point to active, but I'm not so sure.

Can't put my finger on it but something's different.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Force Wind Gust just reported by JFK AP, Queens, NY:

New York/John F. Kennedy Intl Airport
Lat: 40.66 Lon: -73.78 Elev: 26
Last Update on Mar 13, 6:51 pm EST


Light Rain Fog/Mist and Windy

49 F
(9 C) Humidity: 86 %
Wind Speed: E 40 G 74 MPH
Barometer: 29.49" (998.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 45 F (7 C)
Wind Chill: 39 F (4 C)
Visibility: 5.00 mi


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ului continues to look better and better.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
546 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
RAINFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
SHELTON 1.50 300 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
STAMFORD 1.45 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
DANBURY 1.27 400 PM 3/13 ASOS
BRIDGEPORT 1.08 400 PM 3/13 ASOS

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NEW HAVEN/TWEED 1.34 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
WALLINGFORD 1.16 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
MERIDEN 1.13 330 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MERIDEN 0.86 400 PM 3/13 ASOS

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
COLCHESTER 1.08 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
GROTON/NEW LONDON 0.65 400 PM 3/13 ASOS

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
FRANKLIN LAKES 1.92 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
LODI 1.64 332 PM 3/13 PUBLIC
RIDGEWOOD 1.40 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
PARK RIDGE 1.32 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
WOODCLIFF LAKE 1.28 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
TETERBORO 1.30 400 PM 3/13 ASOS

...ESSEX COUNTY...
NEWARK 2.48 400 PM 3/13 ASOS
CANOE BROOK DAM 2.35 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
VERONA 1.88 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
CALDWELL 1.83 400 PM 3/13 ASOS
ESSEX FELLS 1.48 400 PM 3/13 MESONET

...HUDSON COUNTY...
NORTH BERGEN 1.54 130 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HOBOKEN 1.25 115 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
JERSEY CITY 1.18 115 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HARRISON 1.09 115 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
KEARNY 1.02 115 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
WEST MILFORD 2.12 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
RINGWOOD 2.04 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
WAYNE 1.68 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
LITTLE FALLS 1.44 400 PM 3/13 MESONET

...UNION COUNTY...
UNION 3.20 230 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ROSELLE PARK 2.05 259 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...KINGS COUNTY...
BROOKLYN 3.17 400 PM 3/13 COOP
BAYRIDGE 3.29 430 PM 3/13 MESONET

...NASSAU COUNTY...
WANTAGH 2.39 445 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MASSAPEQUA 1.83 240 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
FLORAL PARK 1.78 300 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MERRICK 1.78 100 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
NYC/CENTRAL PARK 1.99 400 PM 3/13 ASOS

...ORANGE COUNTY...
GOSHEN 1.17 238 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BLOOMING GROVE 1.10 130 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MONTGOMERY 0.78 400 PM 3/13 ASOS

...QUEENS COUNTY...
NYC/JFK ARPT 1.87 400 PM 3/13 ASOS
NYC/LA GUARDIA 1.49 400 PM 3/13 ASOS

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
SUFFERN 1.80 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
NANUET 1.36 400 PM 3/13 MESONET

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
GREENPORT 2.14 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
ISLIP 1.88 300 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
FIRE ISLAND 1.77 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
UPTON 1.77 400 PM 3/13 NWS OFFICE
STONY BROOK 1.71 339 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ISLIP 1.70 400 PM 3/13 ASOS
BRIDGEHAMPTON 1.62 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
RIVERHEAD 1.59 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
NORTHPORT 1.53 400 PM 3/13 MESONET
MONTAUK 1.40 400 PM 3/13 ASOS
FARMINGDALE 1.35 400 PM 3/13 ASOS
SHIRLEY 1.25 400 PM 3/13 ASOS
WESTHAMPTON BEACH 1.13 400 PM 3/13 ASOS

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION PEAK WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
GUST OF
(MPH) MEASUREMENT


CONNECTICUT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NEW HAVEN/TWEED 46 505 PM 3/13 ASOS

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
GROTON/NEW LONDON 47 346 PM 3/13 ASOS

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
TETERBORO 55 542 PM 3/13 ASOS
FORT LEE 50 830 AM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
CALDWELL 48 514 PM 3/13 ASOS
NEWARK 45 1002 AM 3/13 ASOS

...HUDSON COUNTY...
JERSEY CITY 50 621 AM 3/13 MESONET
HARRISON 45 730 AM 3/13 NWS COOP
BAYONNE 41 525 AM 3/13 MESONET
KEARNY 41 339 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
KEARNY 41 124 PM 3/13 PUBLIC

NEW YORK

...NASSAU COUNTY...
JONES BEACH ISLAND 63 240 PM 3/13 MESONET
JONES BEACH STATE 63 240 PM 3/13 COAST GUARD
WANTAGH 63 445 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MERRICK 55 1257 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BAYVILLE 53 132 PM 3/13 MESONET

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
NYC/CENTRAL PARK 53 345 PM 3/13 ASOS

...QUEENS COUNTY...
BREEZY POINT 67 330 PM 3/13 MESONET
NYC/JFK ARPT 67 517 PM 3/13 ASOS

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
BLUE POINT 67 302 PM 3/13 MESONET
FIRE ISLAND 58 230 PM 3/13 MESONET
SHIRLEY 56 539 PM 3/13 ASOS
AMITY HARBOR 55 330 PM 3/13 GREAT SOUTH BAY MESONET
WESTHAMPTON BEACH 55 502 PM 3/13 ASOS
ISLIP 54 346 PM 3/13 ASOS
FARMINGDALE 51 505 PM 3/13 ASOS
LINDENHURST 48 1100 AM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SOUTHAMPTON 48 1120 AM 3/13 MESONET
FISHERS ISLAND 47 1105 AM 3/13 MESONET
NAPEAGUE 43 1038 AM 3/13 MESONET
GILGO BEACH 40 245 AM 3/13 MESONET

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
WHITE PLAINS 58 535 PM 3/13 ASOS
LARCHMONT 46 919 AM 3/13 HARBOR MESONET
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tc1120:
Really bad here in Long Beach NY. The flooding situation is heavy with incoming high tide. A lot of roads are blocked off and power is out in half our city. The heavy rain has stoppd a bit but the wind is easy sustained at 50kts. Waves recorded 19.7ft on 44025 an hour ago, the beaches are getting trashed. Tides 3.5-4ft above normal at full high tonight. Two trees down in my backyard, good thing they fell away from my house.

Mondays waves should be all time. I love nor'easters for one reason, but the damage is pretty bad this time.


Used to hang out in Long Beach, LI back in 1976-78, when I lived in West Hempstead, LI.

I know you are all getting hammered with gale and storm force winds. The NCEP/HPC doesn't even have a special report on the Nor'Easter!!

Wind gusts at JFK AP at 4:51 and 5:51PM EST to 66 MPH. I am sure that there is widespread damage all along coastal NY/NJ especially near the coast. And I am SHOCKED there is little coverage on this! SAD!!
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Really bad here in Long Beach NY. The flooding situation is heavy with incoming high tide. A lot of roads are blocked off and power is out in half our city. The heavy rain has stoppd a bit but the wind is easy sustained at 50kts. Waves recorded 19.7ft on 44025 an hour ago, the beaches are getting trashed. Tides 3.5-4ft above normal at full high tonight. Two trees down in my backyard, good thing they fell away from my house.

Mondays waves should be all time. I love nor'easters for one reason, but the damage is pretty bad this time.
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Kind of weird how these cams work, not streaming but changes each time you click on picture, but shows Jersey Shore getting hammered.

http://www.nj.com/shore/belmarcam/
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Poor NYC-NJ Metro Area.

JFK AP in S Queens Borough, NY at 4:51PM and 5:51 PM EST had E winds at 44 MPH GUSTING to 66 MPH!!

NYC Central Park had had over 2 inches of rain, and the rain continues to pour down!!

There is now a Winter Storm Warning in effect for parts of interior SE NY state!

One heckuva Nor'Easter going on today!!
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Wow.



Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Blog's dead.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
355. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


2010MAR13 203000 Pressure 907.8 134.8 kts

Final 6.8
Adjusted 6.9
Raw 6.9
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Quoting StormW:


bye bye El Nino?


Also do you have a comment about the image I posted about the forecast for Ului?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
349. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F)
6:00 AM FST March 14 2010
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului (945 hPa) located at 13.0S 162.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. Position FAIR based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-cirlce
150 NM from the center elsewhere

The system has rapidly intensified in the last 12 hours. System lies in a light to moderately sheared environment. Upper outflow good in all sector. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. The cyclone is expected to be steered west northwestby east to southeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on MG eye and CMG surrounding yielding DT=6.5. MET is constrained to 5.0, PT is 5.5. FT based on DT, but constraints only allow FT to reach 6.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

Global models agree on a west-northwest track with intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.8S 160.9E - 110 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS: 12.8S 159.5E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS: 13.1S 156.8E - 110 knots (CAT 5)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC ULUI Will Be Issued At Around 3:00 AM UTC (Sunday)...
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348. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #13
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
6:00 AM FST March 14 2010
======================================

For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS.

For Fiji and Rotuma
====================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE FIJI GROUP.

For Tuvalu
===========
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIULAKITA.

A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NUKULAELAE IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE GROUP.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Tomas (975 hPa) located at 12.6S 179.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. Position FAIR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Organization continues to improve. Primary bands continuing to wrap tightly around low level circulation center. Cyclone lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered southwest by northeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 1.1 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 4.0, MET=4.5 PT=4.5

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on southwest track and intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 13.6S 179.7W - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 14.6S 179.9E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 16.6S 179.4E - 105 knots (CAT 4)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 2:30 AM UTC (Sunday)...
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Here is the 4-day chart from BOM

Ului look to be at least somewhat of a threat to Australia, the ridge to the south in this image doesnt look to budge much. Take a look at Wednesday night

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
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Metop EPS flight Visible 0.6




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Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14896
My backyard is turning into a swamp!

I hope this rain stops soon.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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