An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S., warmest on record in Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on March 12, 2010

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The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.


Figure 1. Winter temperatures for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold February in the U.S.
February temperatures were 2.2°F below average across the contiguous U.S., making it the 29th coldest February in the 115-year record. For the second month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. Florida had its 4th coldest February on record. Seven other states had February temperatures between 5th and 8th coldest on record: Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Maine had its 3rd warmest February, New Hampshire its 5th, and Washington its 6th. Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in February.

Warmest and driest winter on record in Canada
Canada had its warmest winter on record, 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average, according to Environment Canada. The previous record was 3.9°C above average, set in 2005-2006. Canada also experienced its driest winter on record this year, with precipitation 22.0% below normal. The previous driest winter was 1977-1978 (20.1% below normal). Canadian weather records go back 63 years, to 1948. David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, warned of potential "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this summer due to the warm, dry winter. Phillips blamed the warm winter weather on El Niño and the severe loss of arctic sea ice last fall. The winter season in Canada has warmed, on average, by 2.5°C (4.5°F) over the past 63 years.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average in Canada for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Brazilian tropical/subtropical storm named "Anita"
The South Atlantic tropical/subtropical storm we've been tracking this week has moved over colder waters and has now transitioned to a regular extratropical storm. Earlier this week, the storm became just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic. According to a statement put out by MetSul Meteorologia, a Brazilian weather company, this storm is now named "Tropical Storm Anita:"

The regional weather centers and the private weather enterprises of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, southernmost Brazilian states, in a joint decision, named Anita the rare tropical storm of March 9th and 10th in the coastal areas of the region. The name was chosen considering a historic figure of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, both states affected by the tropical cyclone. Anita Garibaldi (1821-1849) was a heroine of the Farroupilha Revolution (1835-1845), one of the most important events in the Brazilian history that took place in the Southern part of the country. Anita was used in the past to designate tropical cyclones in other basins: North Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Next week, we need to keep an eye on northeastern Australia, where Tropical Cyclone 20 may pay a visit. The storm is under light shear and warm waters, and is forecast to increase to Category 4 strength by Monday. Also of concern is Tropical Cyclone 19, which is expected to hit Fiji as a Category 2 storm early next week.

First tornado death of the year for the U.S
A tornado that hit Cleburne, Arkansas on Wednesday caused three serious injuries and the tornado season's first fatality, a 79-year old man sheltering in his single story wood-frame home. Yesterday, a suspected tornado ripped through Haines City, Florida destroying four condos and damaging fifteen others. One person was injured. Two other tornadoes caused minor damage in central Florida. The severe weather outbreak continues today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather over portions of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. After today, the severe weather action should diminish for at least five days over the U.S. The major U.S. weather story this weekend will be flooding in the Mid-Atlantic, where heavy rains of up to four inches are expected. Soils are already saturated and the heavy snows from this winter's major snowstorms will also melt, likely creating moderate flooding problems over much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Links to follow:
Interactive tornado map
Severe weather page


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Tornado, Saline County, AR (waltdsgirl)
Tornado, Saline County, AR
deluge of rain... (happytobealive)
We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
deluge of rain...
wind damage (Openmike)
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.
wind damage

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Very interesting article brought to our attention by Joe Bastardi in his afternoon post today. I encourage all of you that are subscribed to the Accuweather Pro site to read his comments on this article. It is very enlightening.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Thanks Drak. I know it's WAY too early, but with the conditions you described, do you foresee this season having an early start?
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My preliminary forecast is:

16-18 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes


Holy cow, Drakoen...you're usually pretty conservative.

Ouch.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25927
Off topic...but things are slow...


Did Bankrupt Runaway Prius Driver Fake "Unintended Acceleration?"
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The current conditions, climate model forecasts, and analog years are supportive of a well above-average year for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The heat build up in the tropics at this time surpasses that of 2005 due to the negative NAO resulting in below average tradewind speeds. Models show a decay of El Nino towards neutral conditions before the start of hurricane season and possibly working its way into La Nina conditions. Models show above average Sea-Surface temperatures in the MDR with the maximum heat building in the Caribbean in the August-September-October critical period. Wind shear forecasts from the CFS of shear being below average in the MDR between 2-4m/s slower represents a dominant subequatorial ridge.

My preliminary forecast is:

16-18 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes
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Quoting Levi32:


This year globally warmer than 1998? I don't think so:



And there is a solid cold PDO signature developing in the Pacific. I posted the comparison yesterday between last month and this month's anomaly maps:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"The El Nino is dying because that's what they do after peaking in the winter, especially during a cold PDO when they are usually short-lived. You can see the cold PDO signature of cold water west of South America and in the eastern pacific starting to squeeze off the warm tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific:

This Month:



Last Month:



Notice the western Pacific warming and the north Pacific taking on a much more cold PDO look than last month. Even the south Pacific is coming along towards a cold look too."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"Modoki" El Nino, as people call it, is simply an El Nino warm pool shifted further west over the central Pacific. It's not something new or special that has suddenly started appearing. Modoki El Ninos occur most often in cold PDOs, as that is what forces the warm water west. The reason people try to claim it's something new is because the last cold PDO cycle ended in 1978 before satellite SST measurements began, and all the El Ninos we have fully observed since then were during a warm PDO.

Bastardi's point is that there was a great falloff in the temperatures after the 1998 El Nino, which marked the end of the warm PDO cycle, and a similar falloff in global temperatures could happen here. A cold PDO doesn't mean NO El Ninos. This particular nino is reactionary to the PDO going cold, which is why we knew it wouldn't last very long. That's why we knew the CFS forecast for El Nino conditions all summer long this year was crap. The journey down into a cold PDO isn't going to be a smooth ride. Bumps are expected along the way, and this current spike is one of them. It's a lower spike than 1998, and there's no telling if the temperature falloff will exceed 1999-2001, but there will likely be a significant decrease in temperatures as we head into a La Nina this winter. How strong it will be is hard to say now, but the global patterns clearly show that this warming is not just going to continue going up this year and next year.


Hmm, where did you get the February UAH figures? I figured that it would be "1.03F" above last February, therefore +0.96C, but I guess not. The warm waters in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are getting squeezed off, but now there is a second subsurface plume of hot water coming to the surface around May, and that will keep La Nina at bay for a while and enhance the WHWP, creating the conditions for an active season in the pre-season. The Modoki El Nino this year actually started as a weak normal El Nino and the Central Pacific became the warmest, but then the West Pacific cooled due to Nida and steering currents drove the warmest water which was then in the Northwest Pacific, into the Central Western Pacific and gave an extra boost to El Nino. That warm water has been partly diverted to the Midlatitude South Pacific, but now the main pool is expected to drift west due to a strengthening Humboldt Current as the undermining effects of the Southeast ENSO extention decrease, and that warm pool should drift into the Northwest Pacific, boosting the Kushiro Current (which has been warming since January). There is a cold PDO, but that isn't a guarantee for a strong La Nina like the one we had in 1998-1999. Also, there's a chance that La Nina could weaken from there and transition back to an El Nino in time for the high solar activity, boosting up global temperatures again. You can't forecast global cooling from the PDO and AMO because there's no overall trend in the correlation between the two. If anything, global temperatures will keep rising and the "spikes" we saw in 1998 and this year will become more and more frequent. While this cannot be accurately confirmed without satellite data, we only started seeing El Nino Modoki events 30 years ago. The two most recent events, 2004 and 2010, both produced a South Atlantic tropical cyclone and global warming was not expected to produce favourable conditions for that until 2070.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
Looks like one more cool down for so. Fla. later this week. Lows back down in the 40's...

Local Text Forecast for
West Palm Beach, FL (33409)

Mar 14 Tonight
Generally clear. Low 56F. W winds at 20 to 30 mph, diminishing to 10 to 15 mph.

Mar 15 Tomorrow
Sunny skies. High 76F. Winds W at 20 to 30 mph.

Mar 15 Tomorrow night
A few clouds. Low 51F. Winds WNW at 15 to 25 mph.

Mar 16 Tuesday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.

Mar 17 Wednesday
Clouds giving way to sun . Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 40s.


Mar 18 Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 40s.


Mar 19 Friday
Sunny. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

Mar 20 Saturday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

Mar 21 Sunday
A few clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.

Mar 22 Monday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

Mar 23 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
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Quoting StormW:


Good point...or in that case, if the system takes on more tropical characteristics (like the system that hit NJ a while back, which was warm core, and both pressure bottomed out and the wind went calm as the center passed over the buoy near Cape May, or Wildwood) SHOULD be named. They kinda need to re define the term "subtropical", as the term states a system that has both tropical and extratropical cyclone. I get into this argument every year with folks, that say it shouldn't be classified because the system is attached to a front. Unless I'm off on my understanding of the process involved, an extratropical cyclone (i.e. Mid Latitude Cyclone) has fronts associcated with it. So if a subtropical cyclone is considreed to have both tropical and "extratropical" characteristics (Mid Latitude cyclone,with fronts) why can't they name something that is warm cored, presents tropical characteristics as far was wind and pressure, even thouhg it may still be associated with a front?


Exactly, the whole thing is very fuzzy. The class of subtropical hybrid storms is extremely diverse, and can have quite a number of different kinds of storms in it. Like you said the definition of a subtropical cyclone is a low pressure area that exhibits both tropical and extratropical characteristics, which suggests that yes even if it's on a front it can be named if it is warm-core, at least shallowly.

What's even more ridiculous though is when you get the kind of "sub-tropical" cyclone that gets completely cut off from any baroclinic zone whatsoever, becomes symetric, and yeah may have an upper low over it but it's a barotropic system that you know is going to eventually warm its core from bottom to top if it's over 25C or warmer waters south of 35N with convection firing over the center. Fronts are one thing, but how you can still call that a non-tropical system is beyond me.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:


I agree with that, but storms like sub-tropical storm Andrea in 2007, close to the coast and outside of the normal hurricane season, need to be paid attention to so people understand how serious they can be. I hope that at least the forecasts in that kind of a situation would word it properly so people both on land and ships know it's a subtropical system and is a bigger deal than your typical storm.

Then again they don't even do that for tropical systems with eye-features off the Carolina coast.....



Can you believe they didn't name this?? People in ships get under it and are like what the heck is this?

And then the radar image over land LOL:



I think the biggest issue is exactly what you stated, they havent followed their own criteria all the time; so its hard to tell what they think should get a name and what shouldn't. It only confuses people more and leads to those kinds of issues.
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Quoting StormW:


How about we quit naming subtropical systems, and just name pruely tropical, warm cored systems (hence the name "Tropical Storm". Put the subtropical stuff under the Gale Warnings stuff on the High Seas forecast.


I agree with that, but storms like sub-tropical storm Andrea in 2007, close to the coast and outside of the normal hurricane season, need to be paid attention to so people understand how serious they can be. I hope that at least the forecasts in that kind of a situation would word it properly so people both on land and ships know it's a subtropical system and is a bigger deal than your typical storm.

Then again they don't even do that for tropical systems with eye-features off the Carolina coast.....



Can you believe they didn't name this?? People in ships get under it and are like what the heck is this?

And then the radar image over land LOL:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
525. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15671
523. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
6:00 AM FST March 15 2010
======================================

For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS.


For Fiji and Rotuma
====================
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, LAKEBA, VANUA BALAVU, MOALA,MATUKU,TOTOYA, CICIA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.


At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas (940 hPa) located at 15.2S 179.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. Position GOOD based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Cyclone has intensified over the last 12 hours and continues to strengthen further. Cyclone lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered southerly by the deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on DT of 5.5 with OW EYE surrounded by LG

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

Consensus of the global models agree on southerly track and intensification, but the cyclone is expected to move into a increasingly sheared environment and weaken south of 20S.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.3S 179.6W - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 17.6S 179.7W - 105 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 21.4S 179.0W - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 2:30 AM UTC (Monday)...
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Quoting troy1993:
Hey Levi 32..I was curious to see how the 1964 Atlantic Hurricane Season was active..Im not familiar with that year.


Well some things like global SST measurements weren't available back in 1964, but we can look at the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) and see that the '64 hurricane season had an El Nino the preceding winter that peaked in December, like this year, and then fell down into a moderate La Nina during the hurricane season.



The winter of 1963-64 also had a strongly negative NAO from November through February, just like this winter has had. This was the only winter I could find with that strong of a negative NAO for those 4 months in a row. This is part of why 1964 is one of the top analogs in this year's package.



The other reasons are illustrated in my comment on the previous page showing the Precipitation, MSLP, and SST anomalies from the 4 top analogs, including 1964. Based on that data, 1964 saw concentrated heat in the deep tropics of the Atlantic, suppressed trade winds in the eastern Atlantic which was favorable for tropical waves, and focused upward motion over the southwest Atlantic which caused a congregation of storm tracks in the western Caribbean, gulf, and off the SE U.S. coast. Three category 2s and one Cat 3 hit the U.S. coast that year.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
And Dora was the last time that Jacksonville, Fla saw hurricane force winds from a named system.

That was 46 years ago.

Let's not mess up a good thing, ok?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25927
1964 had 4 major hurricanes hit the US

Cleo, Dora, Hilda and Isbell

Cleo, Dora and Isbell hit Florida
Hilda hit Lousiana
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I agree too I was just thinking that they could do that to combat this whole "only named it to add to the numbers"

Also if it gets beyond those boundaries and is a threat to Europe, than they would name it


Yeah well they wouldn't have that problem if they were consistent. If those accusations are untrue, then they simply need to follow the simple defined parameters of a named storm, and name tropical cyclones appropriately. It's not hard, it really isn't, but they have been making weird naming decisions for a while now.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Hey Levi 32..I was curious to see how the 1964 Atlantic Hurricane Season was active..Im not familiar with that year.
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Quoting Levi32:


I dunno that's unfair when you consider tropical cyclones globally. Every TC should get a name and be recorded properly if it earned a name. I'd rather see the NHC simply add something to their yearly hurricane forecast, such as a forecasted number of storms that will either form or track west of 60W. Storms west of this line threaten all land areas that are typically threatened by hurricanes in the Atlantic. If they simply give a forecasted number of total named storms, and then a number of those storms that will form or track west of 60W, it will be a much clearer forecast.


I agree too I was just thinking that they could do that to combat this whole "only named it to add to the numbers"

Also if it gets beyond those boundaries and is a threat to Europe, than they would name it
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think the NHC should create a boundary that defines when a system can be classified and given an Atlantic name

How about any storm that forms EAST of the Azores, does not get named but is treated like a European storm and if they choose to name it they can

Also any system that forms north of 45N does not get a name unless it is an threat to the US or Canada


I dunno that's unfair when you consider tropical cyclones globally. Every TC should get a name and be recorded properly if it earned a name. I'd rather see the NHC simply add something to their yearly hurricane forecast, such as a forecasted number of storms that will either form or track west of 60W. Storms west of this longitude threaten all land areas that are typically threatened by hurricanes in the Atlantic. If they simply give a forecasted number of total named storms, and then a number of those storms that will form or track west of 60W, it will be a much clearer forecast.

It would also give them a chance to start forecasting track congregations, as this part of the forecast would tell us how threatened they think the land areas of the western Atlantic are in a particular year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting StormW:


Don't forget the one they'll name all the way north of the Azores, near the Canary Islands.


I think the NHC should create a boundary that defines when a system can be classified and given an Atlantic name

How about any storm that forms EAST of the Azores, does not get named but is treated like a European storm and if they choose to name it they can

Also any system that forms north of 45N does not get a name unless it is an threat to the US or Canada
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Ului is forecasted to restrengthen in a few days as it gets further way from Tomas and the ULL

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Quoting Levi32:
Ului is down to a Cat 3 based on satellite imagery. That's not just my opinion either because the T numbers are down to a range of 4.8 to 5.6. Ului's going to continue to have a hard time until that upper low leaves her alone.



Tomas on the other hand looks much better than Ului and is starting to batter Fiji. Tomas is slowly strengthening and looks like a strong Cat 3 right now. He could make it to a weak Cat 4 before shear starts to weaken him on his way poleward.


Tomas looks so much better then Ului right now.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Ului is down to a Cat 3 based on satellite imagery. That's not just my opinion either because the T numbers are down to a range of 4.8 to 5.6. Ului's going to continue to have a hard time until that upper low leaves her alone.



Tomas on the other hand looks much better than Ului and is starting to batter Fiji. Tomas is slowly strengthening and looks like a strong Cat 3 right now. He could make it to a weak Cat 4 before shear starts to weaken him on his way poleward.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
510. xcool




Link

check out this website ....
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15671
509. xcool
16-7-4 1-3 major landfall
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15671
Quoting AstroHurricane001:




This year globally warmer than 1998? I don't think so:



And there is a solid cold PDO signature developing in the Pacific. I posted the comparison yesterday between last month and this month's anomaly maps:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"The El Nino is dying because that's what they do after peaking in the winter, especially during a cold PDO when they are usually short-lived. You can see the cold PDO signature of cold water west of South America and in the eastern pacific starting to squeeze off the warm tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific:

This Month:



Last Month:



Notice the western Pacific warming and the north Pacific taking on a much more cold PDO look than last month. Even the south Pacific is coming along towards a cold look too."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"Modoki" El Nino, as people call it, is simply an El Nino warm pool shifted further west over the central Pacific. It's not something new or special that has suddenly started appearing. Modoki El Ninos occur most often in cold PDOs, as that is what forces the warm water west. The reason people try to claim it's something new is because the last cold PDO cycle ended in 1978 before satellite SST measurements began, and all the El Ninos we have fully observed since then were during a warm PDO.

Bastardi's point is that there was a great falloff in the temperatures after the 1998 El Nino, which marked the end of the warm PDO cycle, and a similar falloff in global temperatures could happen here. A cold PDO doesn't mean NO El Ninos. This particular nino is reactionary to the PDO going cold, which is why we knew it wouldn't last very long. That's why we knew the CFS forecast for El Nino conditions all summer long this year was crap. The journey down into a cold PDO isn't going to be a smooth ride. Bumps are expected along the way, and this current spike is one of them. It's a lower spike than 1998, and there's no telling if the temperature falloff will exceed 1999-2001, but there will likely be a significant decrease in temperatures as we head into a La Nina this winter. How strong it will be is hard to say now, but the global patterns clearly show that this warming is not just going to continue going up this year and next year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Ameister12:
2010 hurricane season prediction:

2 unnamed depressions
17 named storms
1 subtropical storm
10 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
1 cat. 5 hurricane

Total: 19 storms (including depressions)


My own prediction was close to that: 3 depressions, 16 named storms, 2 subtropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, and 2 cat. 5 hurricanes.
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506. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, CAT 4
5:00 AM EST March 15 2010
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 4 (935 hPa) located at 13.0S 160.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 145 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/12hrs

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.0S 158.4E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 13.2S 157.3E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS: 13.8S 156.7E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
72 HRS: 14.8S 157.3E - 115 knots (CAT 5)

Additional Information
==========================
Analysis based on embedded centre in white surround with 0.5 added for BF.

DT is 5.5, MET is 5.5 also, Final T 5.5. CI held at 6.0.

System has weakened slightly over the last 6 to 12 hours as northern outflow channel becomes compromised. Outflow to south remains good.
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Quoting Patrap:
Now the Ol Ladies in Boca are nervous and it aint even Spring yet JB,..LOL


Hurricane Season Could Be 'Extreme,' Forecaster Says


(March 11) -- AccuWeather.com, which just issued its early hurricane season forecast, not only believes that the 2010 season will be more active than last year, but the private company sees the potential for an "extreme season" with an above-normal threat all along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

The forecast was led by chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi, who believes that this year will be more like the 2008 hurricane season than the much quieter 2009 season. In 2008, there were 17 named storms, eight of which were hurricanes, including the major hurricane Ike that ravaged the upper Texas coast. In 2009, only two storms (one of which was a hurricane) made landfall, both along the Gulf Coast, making it the least active Atlantic hurricane season since 1997.


Speaking of JB, he's predicting a drastic cooldown in global temperatures around 2011-2012. He cites the cooldown of El Nino and the temperatures being cooler in 2010 than in 1998 as reasons. Link

However, I disagree. In the two maps that Bastardi uses, there is no conclusive way of saying that the Arctic temperatures in 1998 were warmer than they are now. The 1998 map shows a solid orange while the 2010 map shows a solid white, because the white represents sea ice and in 1998 the maps did not incorporate sea ice and made a simple assumption for the temperature anomaly throughout the entire region where sea ice existed. The current Arctic SST anomalies are shown below, but under the sea ice it's difficult to tell what temperature it is, so there's no data and the whole point about the Arctic blocking easing up is moot.



Looking at the graph of global average temperatures, 1997-98 is the only real comparison to this year, but that winter the El Nino was stronger and this year the global temperatures are actually higher and the ENSO anomalies are spread out. The warmth in the Central Pacific does not directly indicate a cold PDO (which is present), but rather a Modoki El Nino. So this is proof that the global temperatures are on the rise, and Bastardi's cold prediction assumes that there is no warming. You can't make an assumption like that if you want to make a prediction based on the data.

The return to cooler temperatures for ENSO might not occur as drastically as it did for late 1998, because that resulted in a strong La Nina which may or may not actually occur this year. Predictions for the OND period in 2010 suggest anywhere between +0.3 to -2.1. It could very well be neutral, or a "Modoki-style" mix of El Nino and La Nina in different parts of the Pacific. Either way, there's no way to assure that La Nina will still be around by 2011-2012, because it could just as easily jump back into an El Nino. That's with all the forcings pushing the temperatures to the warm side, including the solar maximum, the continuation of methane clathrate release, and a dry Amazon (think fires and release of CO2).

The Arctic was warmer than normal this winter, and the Arctic vortex has returned, reducing the negative-ness of the AO but at the same time cooling much of the North Atlantic and Pacific. But this warming will mean a lot later in the season when the melting of the Arctic ice cap is underway. Open sea will warm the Northern Hemisphere and possibly keep that "spike" up longer than JB is expecting.
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Dover NH-If I read the radar right, we got 3.9 in of rain since yesterday. Looks likes it's coming to an end soon which is good because the rivers are getting full and I don't own a boat
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2010 hurricane season prediction:

2 unnamed depressions
17 named storms
1 subtropical storm
10 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
1 cat. 5 hurricane

Total: 19 storms (including depressions)
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Adding to:

Record cold usually spells trouble for the Peninsula. Starting in 08 and discounting the obvious anomalies from this year, I was expecting an active season for the peninsula this year. Seems the anomalies are only to fuel the fire to come.

Of note, the waters of the Gulf and Western Atlantic, close to home, are the coldest they've been in many years. We're starting from a much lower point so, without any positive temperature anomalies this spring & summer, we should take longer to get up to speed.

However, seeing recent storms defy the what was and go full steam in less than hospitable ocean temps has me wondering.


Well the gulf won't have a problem warming up, you can count on that. The loop current is going to flood the gulf with warm water from the Caribbean once the sun starts warming things up this spring. The gulf stream east of Florida will follow once the gulf warms up. That whole area should be normal to above normal by the time the season starts.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Adding to:

Record cold usually spells trouble for the Peninsula. Starting in 08 and discounting the obvious anomalies from this year, I was expecting an active season for the peninsula this year. Seems the anomalies are only to fuel the fire to come.

Of note, the waters of the Gulf and Western Atlantic, close to home, are the coldest they've been in many years. We're starting from a much lower point so, without any positive temperature anomalies this spring & summer, we should take longer to get up to speed.

However, seeing recent storms defy the what was and go full steam in less than hospitable ocean temps has me wondering.
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all you have to say is that 2005 is an analog season lol

My prediction for this season is:

18 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
5 major Hurricanes
1 Category 5 Hurricane
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Oh and here's another one. We know that this winter the NAO has been negative, resulting in weaker-than-normal trade winds across the tropical Atlantic, which is what has allowed the SSTs to warm so much in the eastern Atlantic. Below are the surface wind speed anomalies for December to February of this winter, followed by the same map as a composite of 1964, 1995, 1998, and 2005. Notice again how similar conditions are now to what they were in the past. Our analog years score again!

Surface Wind Speed Anomalies for December-February of 2009-2010:



Surface Wind Speed Anomalies for December-February of 1963-64, 1994-95, 1997-98, and 2004-05:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Now keeping the Euro forecast in mind, take a look at the Precipitation, Sea-level presure, and SST anomalies for the 1964, 1995, 1998, and 2005 hurricane seasons. The maps of the period June-August are on the left side, with August-October maps on the right side. I think history speaks for itself.

Precipitation:



MSLP:



Sea Surface Temperature:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:
The new EUROSIP seasonal forecasts are out for March, and they look even scarier than last month's for this upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic. Here are the EUROSIP forecasts for the period June-July-August, for 2m Temperature (top), Mean Sea-level Pressure (middle) and Precipitation (bottom):







You literally cannot ask for a better setup than that for an active season with major landfall danger to the United States and Caribbean. The same principles hold true here as they did last month when I released my hurricane season outlook: Heat building in the deep tropics, the negative NAO and dying El Nino forcing convergence and upward motion over the southwest Atlantic, and the model forecasts all agreeing on the kind of setup that can really focus hurricane activity in a dangerous area this summer.

You'll notice on the model that the Atlantic has the most extreme parameters of any other ocean worldwide. The only basin that comes close is the Indian Ocean, which should also be active this year. This El Nino is leaving a lot of heat and moisture in the atmosphere on its way out, and that means somebody is going to have an active season to use up that excess energy. So far, the current conditions and trends are pointing towards the Atlantic as being the focal point for strong activity this year. I can't stress enough how much people should take this seriously and get ready early this year, to make sure you're well-prepared. Every year should be taken as a serious threat, but I hope that our warnings about this season prompt some people not to slack in their preparations.


Active Indian Ocean season...that doesn't sound good. We can't forget Nargis (2008): 150,000 dead. Link



Also, I forgot to add to the list of contributing factors to an active season: a dry Amazon. This means generally warmer SSTs, warm air temperatures, and higher precipitation from the Western Caribbean to the Central Gulf.
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Quoting Patrap:

One should stress the points of interest but creating a atmosphere of Hype dosent do any good.

We in the Hurricane Prone areas of the US, should have a Evac plan,a Supply of goods and water for every family member for a week at least.


Preparation is the Key.




* Be Safe * Be Smart * Be Prepared *
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
492. JRRP
Quoting StormW:
Keeps getting worse.

NINO 3 SST ANOMALY PLUME






oh Lord
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5813
Quoting hurricane23:
He levi and storm! If the ECM is correct this season should be above average to say the least. Hopeing for a trof parked of the eastcoast.


Hey Adrian :) Yes let's hope for that trough. By the looks of it though even a trough would mean trouble for places like Florida if the western Caribbean has an active year. The trough would just pull a bunch of trouble out of there and into the gulf...but let's hope not.

I'm not sure how consistent these daily CFS model runs are as opposed to the monthly forecasts, but today's map shows a negative 500mb anomaly over the southeast U.S. during August through October:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Now the Ol Ladies in Boca are nervous and it aint even Spring yet JB,..LOL


Hurricane Season Could Be 'Extreme,' Forecaster Says


(March 11) -- AccuWeather.com, which just issued its early hurricane season forecast, not only believes that the 2010 season will be more active than last year, but the private company sees the potential for an "extreme season" with an above-normal threat all along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

The forecast was led by chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi, who believes that this year will be more like the 2008 hurricane season than the much quieter 2009 season. In 2008, there were 17 named storms, eight of which were hurricanes, including the major hurricane Ike that ravaged the upper Texas coast. In 2009, only two storms (one of which was a hurricane) made landfall, both along the Gulf Coast, making it the least active Atlantic hurricane season since 1997.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting hurricane23:


Previous month forcast there from back in feb. Pretty save bet that at the very least we'll have neutral conditions during the heart of this hurricane season. If other factors cooperate we should have an interesting season.


We have all the hurricane-enhancing factors of La Nina, El Nino, El Nino Modoki, ENSO-neutral, warm South Pacific, early and strong WHWP, warm SE Northeast Pacific temperatures, warm MDR, reduced shear, increased Caribbean precipitation, strong Loop Current, Gulf Stream Anomalies, weak North Atlantic Gyre, slightly reduced SAL, low pressure anomalies in the Caribbean and MDR, warm Cape Verde area, weak Canary Current, cross-Atlantic jets, weak Azores High, vast and northerly Bermuda High, strong low-level convergence, warm South Atlantic, strong ICTZ, ocean current fluctuations, warm global temperatures, flat early-season SST lines, warm-cold anomaly division, unstable air, weak quasi-stationary highs and lows, weak steering currents, diverted Gulf Stream, and warmer anomalies than 2005...likely all in place, all conspiring to produce an active and perhaps record-breaking season!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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