An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S., warmest on record in Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on March 12, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.


Figure 1. Winter temperatures for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold February in the U.S.
February temperatures were 2.2°F below average across the contiguous U.S., making it the 29th coldest February in the 115-year record. For the second month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. Florida had its 4th coldest February on record. Seven other states had February temperatures between 5th and 8th coldest on record: Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Maine had its 3rd warmest February, New Hampshire its 5th, and Washington its 6th. Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in February.

Warmest and driest winter on record in Canada
Canada had its warmest winter on record, 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average, according to Environment Canada. The previous record was 3.9°C above average, set in 2005-2006. Canada also experienced its driest winter on record this year, with precipitation 22.0% below normal. The previous driest winter was 1977-1978 (20.1% below normal). Canadian weather records go back 63 years, to 1948. David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, warned of potential "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this summer due to the warm, dry winter. Phillips blamed the warm winter weather on El Niño and the severe loss of arctic sea ice last fall. The winter season in Canada has warmed, on average, by 2.5°C (4.5°F) over the past 63 years.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average in Canada for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Brazilian tropical/subtropical storm named "Anita"
The South Atlantic tropical/subtropical storm we've been tracking this week has moved over colder waters and has now transitioned to a regular extratropical storm. Earlier this week, the storm became just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic. According to a statement put out by MetSul Meteorologia, a Brazilian weather company, this storm is now named "Tropical Storm Anita:"

The regional weather centers and the private weather enterprises of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, southernmost Brazilian states, in a joint decision, named Anita the rare tropical storm of March 9th and 10th in the coastal areas of the region. The name was chosen considering a historic figure of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, both states affected by the tropical cyclone. Anita Garibaldi (1821-1849) was a heroine of the Farroupilha Revolution (1835-1845), one of the most important events in the Brazilian history that took place in the Southern part of the country. Anita was used in the past to designate tropical cyclones in other basins: North Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Next week, we need to keep an eye on northeastern Australia, where Tropical Cyclone 20 may pay a visit. The storm is under light shear and warm waters, and is forecast to increase to Category 4 strength by Monday. Also of concern is Tropical Cyclone 19, which is expected to hit Fiji as a Category 2 storm early next week.

First tornado death of the year for the U.S
A tornado that hit Cleburne, Arkansas on Wednesday caused three serious injuries and the tornado season's first fatality, a 79-year old man sheltering in his single story wood-frame home. Yesterday, a suspected tornado ripped through Haines City, Florida destroying four condos and damaging fifteen others. One person was injured. Two other tornadoes caused minor damage in central Florida. The severe weather outbreak continues today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather over portions of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. After today, the severe weather action should diminish for at least five days over the U.S. The major U.S. weather story this weekend will be flooding in the Mid-Atlantic, where heavy rains of up to four inches are expected. Soils are already saturated and the heavy snows from this winter's major snowstorms will also melt, likely creating moderate flooding problems over much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Links to follow:
Interactive tornado map
Severe weather page


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Tornado, Saline County, AR (waltdsgirl)
Tornado, Saline County, AR
deluge of rain... (happytobealive)
We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
deluge of rain...
wind damage (Openmike)
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.
wind damage

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 588 - 538

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Quoting hurricane23:


We typically see an increase in TC activity -- both frequency and intensity --in seasons immediately following an El Nino event...as long as it isn't a strong La Nina event with howling upper-level easterlies that shear off tropical waves and/or make them propagate westward toof ast for the low-level circulation and convergence zone/forcing to organize. A weak La Nina pattern like we had in 2005 produces the most favorable upper-level environment for TCs to develop and become quite intense. Even if el nino goes poof during the coming months i'am still having a hard time believing there wont be any lingering effects from this strong Nino that (could) trouble the hurricane season. As i stated a few days back it is the nature of warm-core lows in the tropics to spin up and become Cat 5's, and it is the environment -- mostly wind shear -- that modulates the intensity.


2005 was actually more of an El Nino than a La Nina.

SST anomalies for May 1, 2005 (notice the 3C anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific!):



EPac El Nino anomalies peaked around May 5, which is probably why spring predictions for the season stayed low. This could actually happen again this year as the subsurface warm anomaly migrates upward to near 100W around May.

By September 1, the equator had cooled down into a mix of El Nino and La Nina-like conditions (just like what's expected for this season):

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Stormchaser..where did you pull up that second loop?


I have it saved on my photobucket.

Original images come from here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Eerie isn't it....a warning about how the steering patterns could shape up and hit some populated areas if the setting is right. Everyone should be ready.


The trouble is, both Haiti and New Orleans REALLY need a break right now from hurricanes.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Patrap:



AL dosent publish,and this aint FOX,

LOL
One man isnt a ideology,and demeaning a Man,any man,who has served the country in many capacities, for doing his best to educate the masses does him a disservice young Jedi.


yeah cmon levi, i mean we wouldn't have the internet without him...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Right and Al Gore doesn't have a political agenda? Please....which one is making the money off of this argument, Gore or Bastardi?? Ask yourself which one is more inclined to tell the truth. That article wasn't done by Accuweather, so don't complain about it.


Remember Dr. Masters' entry stating that the fossil fuel and auto "skeptic" denial organizations spent fourteen times more money than the environmental groups? S. Fred Singer, for example set up lobby groups that recieved over $470,000 from ExxonMobil in 2002-03 alone. Link
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Levi32:


No correlation? Ok I'm going to assume for the sake of argument that the Hadley temperature record is accurate. Look at it and the PDO side by side:





Look at the dip in temperatures in the 1910s, corresponding to a cold PDO, rising temps from the '20s to the early '40s during a warm PDO, and then the warming ends in the very year that the PDO went cold again. Cooling (or leveling off if you must see it that way) occured from the '40s through 1978 during the cold PDO, and then the PDO went warm again until 1998. Since then the PDO has been starting to go cold again, and the temperatures have been flat-lining since 2000! Don't contradict your own graph.

And El Nino Modokis only been seen for 30 years? What happened 30 years ago? I'll tell you, satellites started measuring both atmosphere and ocean temperatures, starting our reliable and complete global record of SSTs and air temperature. Before that it was a lot harder to tell exactly what the El Nino looked like, so only after we had satellites could we figure out there were "different types" of El Ninos. When you look at the physical processes in the Pacific, you will see that "Modoki" El Ninos are more common during cold PDOs. Yes a cold PDO doesn't guarantee a strong La Nina this winter, but it certainly guarantees the death of this El Nino during the summer. The CFS thought the way you did during this winter, and forecasted El Nino to persist and refuse to go away during this summer. Guess what really happened, we're shoveling crow onto the CFS as it has shifted in line with the other models in forecasting a trend to neutral and weak-moderate La Nina.


There's a correlation between the PDO and global temperatures, but there's no overall upward or downward trend when you consider the combined effects of the PDO and AMO. There's an upward trend in global temperatures, and without a long-term downward trend in either the PDO or AMO, those oscillations are not enough to erase global warming. The decadal and multidecadal oscillations have trended negative before, and we didn't sink into an ice age, so it's ridiculous to claim that those two alone could put an end to global warming.

El Nino may give way to La Nina this summer, but it could just as easily set back in by early 2011, contradicting JB's claim that 2011-2012 will be cold. Look at your own analog year of 1964, when a La Nina developed but El Nino came back by June 1965.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Stormchaser..where did you pull up that second loop?


I'm guessing he saved the looped when the storm was present.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stormchaser..where did you pull up that second loop?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Loop is frozen, dunno why. This is it at landfall.



Some more ive got.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#552

"The Gulf Stream appears to be struggling ..."

Say what? Anything to back up that statement other than wishful thinking? The only time the Florida Current (which turns into the Gulf Stream) would struggle is that the sea level in the Gulf of Mexico falls to levels near that in the Atlantic. Any data on that?

fyi, from Wikipedia:

"The Florida Current results from the movement of water pushed from the Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea by the rotation of the Earth (which exerts a greater force at the equator). The water piles up along Central America and flows northward through the Yucatán Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. The water is heated in the Gulf and forced out through the Florida Straits, between the Florida Keys and Cuba and flows northward along the east coast of the United States. The Florida Current is often referred to imprecisely as the Gulf Stream. In fact, the Florida Current joins the Gulf Stream off the east coast of Florida."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


To the first point, which claims that water vapor has not increased in the US Eastern Seaboard. I blame the slowing of the Gulf Stream for the last 30 years as the cause (less heat transport means less water vapor).


That's all you've got? Lol....Al Gore doesn't understand all the physics of Meteorology. He simply shouts anything he hears that agrees with what he says. Why do you think he refuses to debate every time he's asked? Why should he be scared to publicly debate with somebody if he's so right? He was dead wrong on this one.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'm out for a while, later all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
That's a TS?


Loop is frozen, dunno why. This is it at landfall.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Very interesting article brought to our attention by Joe Bastardi in his afternoon post today. I encourage all of you that are subscribed to the Accuweather Pro site to read his comments on this article. It is very enlightening.


To the first point, which claims that water vapor has not increased in the US Eastern Seaboard. I blame the slowing of the Gulf Stream for the last 30 years as the cause (less heat transport means less water vapor).
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Hmmm...Played in the preview.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That's a TS?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
700mb Specific Humidity for August-October of 1964, 1995, 1998, and 2005. Notice how anomalously moist the entire southwest Atlantic was during the height of those hurricane seasons, as well as across the tropical eastern Atlantic with the African wave train.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
The unnamed May 22nd, 2009 Tropical Storm in the GOMEX. Likely to be added during the PSA.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I liked the year the NHC used the term Neutercane..that was a wild un for sure.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
Adrian, looking at the current shear anomalies you can see anomalously below-average wind shear in the tropical Atlantic which matches up with the CFS for March.

Wind shear anomalies for the tropical Atlantic:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I'm pretty sure that tropical cyclones can also develop off of fronts, and detatch from the front while subtropical then turn into a hurricane.


Indeed they can. A warm-core cyclone along a true frontal boundary can't be fully tropical until it is freed from the baroclinic zone and is allowed to become barotropic.

Also stalled fronts off the southeast coast or over the Gulf of Mexico can spawn tropical cyclones along the convergence zone. Often these fronts sit there long enough that all temperature difference across the front, and therefore baroclinicity, is gone, which can allow a truly tropical system to develop along it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting StormW:


Good point...or in that case, if the system takes on more tropical characteristics (like the system that hit NJ a while back, which was warm core, and both pressure bottomed out and the wind went calm as the center passed over the buoy near Cape May, or Wildwood) SHOULD be named. They kinda need to re define the term "subtropical", as the term states a system that has both tropical and extratropical characteristics. I get into this argument every year with folks, that say it shouldn't be classified because the system is attached to a front. Unless I'm off on my understanding of the process involved, an extratropical cyclone (i.e. Mid Latitude Cyclone) has fronts associcated with it. So if a subtropical cyclone is considered to have both tropical and "extratropical" characteristics (Mid Latitude cyclone,with fronts) why can't they name something that is warm cored, presents tropical characteristics as far was wind and pressure, even though it may still be associated with a front?

(Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are a group of cyclones defined as synoptic scale low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth (outside the tropics) having neither tropical nor polar characteristics, and are connected with fronts and horizontal gradients in temperature and dew point otherwise known as "baroclinic zones".[1] Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms.)


I'm pretty sure that tropical cyclones can also develop off of fronts, and detatch from the front while subtropical then turn into a hurricane.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Well CT,,we all hope it never occurs anywhere in the Basin,but history teaches us to be prepared and every year brings the same chance regardless of forecast.

Here ..we see Betsy from a different view,from TIROS-10 and Betsy was the first "Billion" Dollar Hurricane Impact in the US.

Nicknaming her Billion Dollar Betsy..and also confirmed the ol' GOM and Atlantic Mariners quip,.."weak storm Miami,..Beware NOLA"


Also...Betsy Looped in the Atlantic and was a entity for almost a month...

Department of Defense
Office of Civil Defense
Motion Picture Service

A Hurricane Called Betsy
AVA16542VNB1 - 1966

Recounts Hurricane Betsy's 3,000-mile trip from the Caribbean through the Bahamas, Miami, the Florida Keys, and along the Gulf Coast to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Was that the September system that resembled a Nor'easter and had tropical storm-force winds and made the NHC do a red circle and Recon before it made landfall and wasn't included in the post-season reanalysis? That's not the first in-season tropical storm to not get named. Here's one from October 1998, while Mitch was forming (look at the Bay of Campeche):



Yes that was September, 2008. It is only one of the many systems the NHC has missed that should have been named. They see them all, they saw that one in 1998 too, but for some strange reason do not name them. I wish at least that if they were going to do that they would be consistent about it. Instead they contrast by naming systems that look a lot worse than the systems they refuse to name. Too many times have I seen a system in the Atlantic that they haven't named, then I see a named on the map on the same day in the Atlantic or east Pacific, and those named systems look pathetic in comparison to the un-named one. It makes no sense.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Drakoen:
The current conditions, climate model forecasts, and analog years are supportive of a well above-average year for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The heat build up in the tropics at this time surpasses that of 2005 due to the negative NAO resulting in below average tradewind speeds. Models show a decay of El Nino towards neutral conditions before the start of hurricane season and possibly working its way into La Nina conditions. Models show above average Sea-Surface temperatures in the MDR with the maximum heat building in the Caribbean in the August-September-October critical period. Wind shear forecasts from the CFS of shear being below average in the MDR between 2-4m/s slower represents a dominant subequatorial ridge.

My preliminary forecast is:

16-18 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes


We typically see an increase in TC activity -- both frequency and intensity --in seasons immediately following an El Nino event...as long as it isn't a strong La Nina event with howling upper-level easterlies that shear off tropical waves and/or make them propagate westward toof ast for the low-level circulation and convergence zone/forcing to organize. A weak La Nina pattern like we had in 2005 produces the most favorable upper-level environment for TCs to develop and become quite intense. Even if el nino goes poof during the coming months i'am still having a hard time believing there wont be any lingering effects from this strong Nino that (could) trouble the hurricane season. As i stated a few days back it is the nature of warm-core lows in the tropics to spin up and become Cat 5's, and it is the environment -- mostly wind shear -- that modulates the intensity.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13786
Here's a look at the CFS 500mb mean for August:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I agree with that, but storms like sub-tropical storm Andrea in 2007, close to the coast and outside of the normal hurricane season, need to be paid attention to so people understand how serious they can be. I hope that at least the forecasts in that kind of a situation would word it properly so people both on land and ships know it's a subtropical system and is a bigger deal than your typical storm.

Then again they don't even do that for tropical systems with eye-features off the Carolina coast.....



Can you believe they didn't name this?? People in ships get under it and are like what the heck is this?

And then the radar image over land LOL:



Was that the September system that resembled a Nor'easter and had tropical storm-force winds and made the NHC do a red circle and Recon before it made landfall and wasn't included in the post-season reanalysis? That's not the first in-season tropical storm to not get named. Here's one from October 1998, while Mitch was forming (look at the Bay of Campeche):




Here's the imagery of the September 2008 system. Look at it and tell me that's not at least a subtropical storm. It was also connected by a trough to the developing Tropical Storm Kyle.

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Patrap:
I remember Hilda in 64,,..she wasnt much here,,but the following year in Sept 65,Betsy a Cat 3 Had the Miss River at NOLA flowing North and flooded the 9th Ward.
Betsy was the last Major to strike NOLA before Katrina in 2005

40 years after.

Hurricane Betsy 1965 Raw Footage! Part -6


Thank you for the vid pat, Besty sure was a beastly storm. I hope nothing like that storm, Katrina, even Gustav head your way again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I remember Hilda in 64,,..she wasnt much here,,but the following year in Sept 65,Betsy a Cat 3 Had the Miss River at NOLA flowing North and flooded the 9th Ward.
Betsy was the last Major to strike NOLA before Katrina in 2005

40 years after.


This is raw news footage taken by Miami Television Station WTVJ channel-4 during and after the arrival of Hurricane Betsy, a strong cat.-3 storm which hit South Florida on September 8th 1965. This footage was shot at various locations in and around the Miami-Ft.Lauderdale area and the adjacent Beaches.

Hurricane Betsy 1965 Raw Footage! Part -6



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
Quoting Drakoen:
One thing I took into note was the CFS increasingly trending towards lower wind shear in the MDR region. The E3 CFS is much weaker with the shear than the E1. The favorable weaker upper level easterlies should be far more prevalent. Also looking at the precipitation pattern this season and the forecast 500mb heights. The ridge sets up over Texas carving out a trough in the east with the extension of the Bermuda high ridge towards the Bahamas. This favors central and eastern GOM track and southeastern seaboard tracks, particularly around August and September.


Indeed, things are leaning towards a westward congregation of tracks with potential for multiple landfalls on the United States coastline. Watching the NAO and pressures over the eastern Atlantic this May will give us a key clue to how this will play out during the summer.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Wow.. Drak has higher expectations for the season than I do and thats a real first. I've narrowed mine down to this, looking at the ENSO, SSTs, the lower than average shear across most of the basin due to the negative NAO. We can only hope a strong trough builds in during the season that deflects most of the systems out into the blue never to be seen again.. but that would be trouble for Florida as a strong trough in the GOMEX might send systems, strong systems especially as they have a more northward tug, into the west coast of FL Charley style and even though we've had all this extreme cool weather in the South US wont stop the SST's and the TCHP in the GOMEX skyrocketing in 3-4 weeks time. MJO will most likely be a huge contributing factor this year.

So here's the numbers.

16 named Tropical Cyclones (approx 2 sub-tropical)
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Awww c'mon Drakoen post the liberal numbers. I promise conservatives won't hate you if you do :)


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One thing I took into note was the CFS increasingly trending towards lower wind shear in the MDR region. The E3 CFS is much weaker with the shear than the E1. The favorable weaker upper level easterlies should be far more prevalent. Also looking at the precipitation pattern this season and the forecast 500mb heights. The ridge sets up over Texas carving out a trough in the east with the extension of the Bermuda high ridge towards the Bahamas. This favors central and eastern GOM track and southeastern seaboard tracks, particularly around August and September.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I can't help notice that most of the analog years had at least one hurricane hitting Haiti or NOLA. 1964 for example had a cat. 4 making landfall on Haiti and a cat. 3 hitting close to NOLA.


Eerie isn't it....a warning about how the steering patterns could shape up and hit some populated areas if the setting is right. Everyone should be ready.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting xcool:


The Gulf Stream appears to be struggling in its connection to the Loop Current with that cold water intrusion southwest of Florida.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Levi32:


Well some things like global SST measurements weren't available back in 1964, but we can look at the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) and see that the '64 hurricane season had an El Nino the preceding winter that peaked in December, like this year, and then fell down into a moderate La Nina during the hurricane season.



The winter of 1963-64 also had a strongly negative NAO from November through February, just like this winter has had. This was the only winter I could find with that strong of a negative NAO for those 4 months in a row. This is part of why 1964 is one of the top analogs in this year's package.



The other reasons are illustrated in my comment on the previous page showing the Precipitation, MSLP, and SST anomalies from the 4 top analogs, including 1964. Based on that data, 1964 saw concentrated heat in the deep tropics of the Atlantic, suppressed trade winds in the eastern Atlantic which was favorable for tropical waves, and focused upward motion over the southwest Atlantic which caused a congregation of storm tracks in the western Caribbean, gulf, and off the SE U.S. coast. Three category 2s and one Cat 3 hit the U.S. coast that year.



I can't help notice that most of the analog years had at least one hurricane hitting Haiti or NOLA. 1964 for example had a cat. 4 making landfall on Haiti and a cat. 3 hitting close to NOLA.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Patrap:
I dont ever read any GW or CC info from JB or ACCU cuz he begins each paragraph with a Politicized agenda..or a Al Gore quip..

Never any real science nor Peer reviewed data that is accepted in the Field.



So they may bring it here,..it iz but non sense and hype to rally a personal point.

And dat's cool.

But not science atall.


Right and Al Gore doesn't have a political agenda? Please....which one is making the money off of this argument, Gore or Bastardi?? Ask yourself which one is more inclined to tell the truth. That article wasn't done by Accuweather, so don't complain about it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Hmm, where did you get the February UAH figures? I figured that it would be "1.03F" above last February, therefore 0.96C, but I guess not. The warm waters in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are getting squeezed off, but now there is a second subsurface plume of hot water coming to the surface around May, and that will keep La Nina at bay for a while and enhance the WHWP, creating the conditions for an active season in the pre-season. The Modoki El Nino this year actually started as a weak normal El Nino and the Central Pacific became the warmest, but then the West Pacific cooled due to Nida and steering currents drove the warmest water which was then in the Northwest Pacific, into the Central Western Pacific and gave an extra boost to El Nino. That warm water has been partly diverted to the Midlatitude South Pacific, but now the main pool is expected to drift west due to a strengthening Humboldt Current as the undermining effects of the Southeast ENSO extention decrease, and that warm pool should drift into the Northwest Pacific, boosting the Kushiro Current (which has been warming since January). There is a cold PDO, but that isn't a guarantee for a strong La Nina like the one we had in 1998-1999. Also, there's a chance that La Nina could weaken from there and transition back to an El Nino in time for the high solar activity, boosting up global temperatures again. You can't forecast global cooling from the PDO and AMO because there's no overall trend in the correlation between the two. If anything, global temperatures will keep rising and the "spikes" we saw in 1998 and this year will become more and more frequent. While this cannot be accurately confirmed without satellite data, we only started seeing El Nino Modoki events 30 years ago. The two most recent events, 2004 and 2010, both produced a South Atlantic tropical cyclone and global warming was not expected to produce favourable conditions for that until 2070.


No correlation? Ok I'm going to assume for the sake of argument that the Hadley temperature record is accurate. Look at it and the PDO side by side:





Look at the dip in temperatures in the 1910s, corresponding to a cold PDO, rising temps from the '20s to the early '40s during a warm PDO, and then the warming ends in the very year that the PDO went cold again. Cooling (or leveling off if you must see it that way) occured from the '40s through 1978 during the cold PDO, and then the PDO went warm again until 1998. Since then the PDO has been starting to go cold again, and the temperatures have been flat-lining since 2000! Don't contradict your own graph.

And El Nino Modokis only been seen for 30 years? What happened 30 years ago? I'll tell you, satellites started measuring both atmosphere and ocean temperatures, starting our reliable and complete global record of SSTs and air temperature. Before that it was a lot harder to tell exactly what the El Nino looked like, so only after we had satellites could we figure out there were "different types" of El Ninos. When you look at the physical processes in the Pacific, you will see that "Modoki" El Ninos are more common during cold PDOs. Yes a cold PDO doesn't guarantee a strong La Nina this winter, but it certainly guarantees the death of this El Nino during the summer. The CFS thought the way you did during this winter, and forecasted El Nino to persist and refuse to go away during this summer. Guess what really happened, we're shoveling crow onto the CFS as it has shifted in line with the other models in forecasting a trend to neutral and weak-moderate La Nina.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Rising Temperatures in the Midst of Heavy Snow?

The decade from 2000 to 2009 was the warmest in the modern record. "Piecing Together the Temperature Puzzle" illustrates how NASA satellites enable us to study possible causes of climate change. The video explains what role fluctuations in the solar cycle, changes in snow and cloud cover, and rising levels of heat-trapping gases may play in contributing to climate change.

For more info on NASA and Climate Change, visit:
http://climate.nasa.gov


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
oh lord- not him again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Don't forget the one they'll name all the way north of the Azores, near the Canary Islands.


You mean they might actually name the January/February storms? Wasn't that one near the Azores a hybrid low, and aren't the Canary Islands south of the Azores?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
the two tone talk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Those were my conservative numbers

Please...DON'T tell us how you really feel!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thanks Drak. I know it's WAY too early, but with the conditions you described, do you foresee this season having an early start?


I would be very surprised if it didn't start early


Quoting aquak9:
My preliminary forecast is:

16-18 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes


Holy cow, Drakoen...you're usually pretty conservative.

Ouch.


Those were my conservative numbers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very interesting article brought to our attention by Joe Bastardi in his afternoon post today. I encourage all of you that are subscribed to the Accuweather Pro site to read his comments on this article. It is very enlightening.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647

Viewing: 588 - 538

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.