An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S., warmest on record in Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on March 12, 2010

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The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.


Figure 1. Winter temperatures for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold February in the U.S.
February temperatures were 2.2°F below average across the contiguous U.S., making it the 29th coldest February in the 115-year record. For the second month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. Florida had its 4th coldest February on record. Seven other states had February temperatures between 5th and 8th coldest on record: Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Maine had its 3rd warmest February, New Hampshire its 5th, and Washington its 6th. Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in February.

Warmest and driest winter on record in Canada
Canada had its warmest winter on record, 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average, according to Environment Canada. The previous record was 3.9°C above average, set in 2005-2006. Canada also experienced its driest winter on record this year, with precipitation 22.0% below normal. The previous driest winter was 1977-1978 (20.1% below normal). Canadian weather records go back 63 years, to 1948. David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, warned of potential "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this summer due to the warm, dry winter. Phillips blamed the warm winter weather on El Niño and the severe loss of arctic sea ice last fall. The winter season in Canada has warmed, on average, by 2.5°C (4.5°F) over the past 63 years.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average in Canada for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Brazilian tropical/subtropical storm named "Anita"
The South Atlantic tropical/subtropical storm we've been tracking this week has moved over colder waters and has now transitioned to a regular extratropical storm. Earlier this week, the storm became just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic. According to a statement put out by MetSul Meteorologia, a Brazilian weather company, this storm is now named "Tropical Storm Anita:"

The regional weather centers and the private weather enterprises of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, southernmost Brazilian states, in a joint decision, named Anita the rare tropical storm of March 9th and 10th in the coastal areas of the region. The name was chosen considering a historic figure of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, both states affected by the tropical cyclone. Anita Garibaldi (1821-1849) was a heroine of the Farroupilha Revolution (1835-1845), one of the most important events in the Brazilian history that took place in the Southern part of the country. Anita was used in the past to designate tropical cyclones in other basins: North Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Next week, we need to keep an eye on northeastern Australia, where Tropical Cyclone 20 may pay a visit. The storm is under light shear and warm waters, and is forecast to increase to Category 4 strength by Monday. Also of concern is Tropical Cyclone 19, which is expected to hit Fiji as a Category 2 storm early next week.

First tornado death of the year for the U.S
A tornado that hit Cleburne, Arkansas on Wednesday caused three serious injuries and the tornado season's first fatality, a 79-year old man sheltering in his single story wood-frame home. Yesterday, a suspected tornado ripped through Haines City, Florida destroying four condos and damaging fifteen others. One person was injured. Two other tornadoes caused minor damage in central Florida. The severe weather outbreak continues today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather over portions of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. After today, the severe weather action should diminish for at least five days over the U.S. The major U.S. weather story this weekend will be flooding in the Mid-Atlantic, where heavy rains of up to four inches are expected. Soils are already saturated and the heavy snows from this winter's major snowstorms will also melt, likely creating moderate flooding problems over much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Links to follow:
Interactive tornado map
Severe weather page


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Tornado, Saline County, AR (waltdsgirl)
Tornado, Saline County, AR
deluge of rain... (happytobealive)
We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
deluge of rain...
wind damage (Openmike)
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.
wind damage

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Quoting Patrap:
Im loading my new HP PC,Hewlett Packard so im going to tozz the reloaded LONKS in here as I come across them


Still using Chrome there Pat?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
186. JRRP
low shear + average sahel rainfall + warm SST =
16 name storms
9 hurricanes
4 majors
2 cat 5
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5082
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Those predictions are already off by about 0.3C. The warming of the West Pacific could be delayed, but once it does warm it could support some frighteningly large typhoons.


Well the recent extreme negative SOI burst threw off most of the model forecasts, so I'm not surprised it's behind schedule. It will warm though as the El Nino decays.
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ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)



Soon nuff we will see the Models Here
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125627
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125627
Im loading my new HP PC,Hewlett Packard so im going to tozz the reloaded LONKS in here as I come across them
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125627
Quoting Levi32:


The western Pacific is forecast to warm this summer, which is consistent with a dying El Nino and the beginnings of a La Nina.

NINO WEST (western Pacific) SST forecast from the Japanese Meteorological Agency:



Those predictions are already off by about 0.3C. The warming of the West Pacific could be delayed, but once it does warm it could support some frighteningly large typhoons.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
hey patrap,
you have been posting a lot of great links, thanks!
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I think there were more sub-tropical storms in the South Atlantic then what has been thus detected.
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So far looks like a pretty moist Africa this winter:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
5=Day SAL JAVA Movie,E-PAC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125627
My current prediction for 2010 Atlantic hurricane season (tenative and preliminary):

Tropical depressions: 19
Tropical storms: 16
Hurricanes: 10
Major hurricanes: 6
Cat. 5's: 2

Subtropical storms: 1
Hybrid lows: 11
Atlantic-Pacific crossovers: 2
Northeast Atlantic storms (25-50N, 10-35W): 5
Mediterranean storms: 2
Europe/Africa tropical landfalls: 3
South Atlantic storms: 2

US landfalling hurricanes: 5
Caribbean storms: 7
S. Ontario storm remnants: 4
Atlantic Canada tropical storm landfalls: 2

First storm formed: April 16
Last storm dissipated: December 10
Longest-lasting storm: 20 days
Most intense storm: 906 mbar
Strongest windspeed: 265 km/h
Fastest 24-hour intensification: -58 mb

Most storms at once: 4
Total ACE: 230
Highest storm surge on land: 28 ft
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
Saharan Air Layer Analysis

GOES-West Split Window:

Background: This imagery is created by differencing the 12.0 and 10.7m infrared channels on the GOES-West imager. The algorithm is sensitive to the presence of dry and/or dusty air in the lower atmosphere (~600-850 hPa or ~4,500-1,500 m) and is denoted by the yellow to red shading.

Uses: This imagery is useful for monitoring the position and movement of dry air masses such as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Animations of the imagery are useful for tracking these features and can also help identify the source of the dry and/or dusty air that is indicated in the imagery.

# Notes: Dry air and suspended aerosols (e.g. mineral dust) both contribute to a positive "SAL" signal in this imagery, but the relative contribution of each cannot be determined from this imagery alone.
# Polar air originating from the mid-latitudes produces a positive signal in this imagery that is similar to that of the SAL. This is because both air masses contain substantial dry air in the lower to middle troposphere. The JAVA movie is a useful tool for determining which type of air mass is being indicated in the imagery.
# Areas of very cold water (e.g. west of South America) can affect the split window algorithm and produce a false positive "SAL" signal. These regions can be easily identified using the JAVA movie because they tend not to move or change form for several consecutive days.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125627
2010 WAVETRAK - Tropical Wave Tracking
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, it will get the ITCZ eventually and is currently around average. Average is dry.

Anomalously wet would mean less dust than usual...not happening.


Why do you say that? I haven't seen a forecast for a dry Sahel yet. The models are pointing towards average to above average during the summer. And it's not the dust that's the problem, it's the pattern that causes the dust, the dry air that allows the dust to fly.
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GEO Sat Server


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125627
i agree that we will see things we haven't see before this season.
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Quoting Levi32:


Call me blind but this doesn't look like a dry Sahel to me. It looks like around average to slightly above. Keep in mind that there is nearly no rain at all north 10N over Africa during the northern hemisphere winter. The ITCZ is still well south.


Yeah, it will get the ITCZ eventually and is currently around average. Average is dry.

Anomalously wet would mean less dust than usual...not happening.
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Quoting hydrus:
This is an unusual question, but might have some scientific viability. If tropical cyclone activity is much higher than normal in the southern hemisphere and the North-Western pacific (which can form typhoons year round), could this lead a slight reduction of tropical storms and hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane season? With massive amounts of heat energy being released from the atmosphere, it might reduce the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Sorta like the release valve on a pressure cooker.


That can happen, but overall global tropical cyclone activity hasn't been that high recently, and so far hasn't really taken a jump in the southern hemisphere this year according to the graph below. Also, if the current model forecasts end up being correct, then the Atlantic could be the greatest focus of heat in the northern hemisphere tropics this summer. I don't see another basin overpowering the Atlantic significantly. The only one that could get close in the heat battle is the Indian Ocean, which is entirely warmer than normal right now.



The southern hemisphere tropical cyclone season total ACE so far is running pretty close to average, as they are currently at the peak of their tropical season.

2010 TC Activity
Updated Mar 11 12Z
BASIN 2010 ACE NORMAL YEARLY ACE**
Southern Hemisphere 128 (current so far) 204 (normal yearly)
Northern Hemisphere 0 (current so far) 563 (normal yearly)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Thank you for proving my point

While it is a general average that 60% of all named storms become hurricanes, it is not an absolute. We could very well see 19 storms and 7 hurricanes
This is an unusual question, but might have some scientific viability. If tropical cyclone activity is much higher than normal in the southern hemisphere and the North-Western pacific (which can form typhoons year round), could this lead a slight reduction of tropical storms and hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane season? With massive amounts of heat energy being released from the atmosphere, it might reduce the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Sorta like the release valve on a pressure cooker.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Call me downcaster, if you must, but I am figuring on an above average season...but just that.

13 named (yeah, good parameters...mostly...dry sahel (read: dust): http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/imgbrowses2.php?adds=ℑ=my&extent=wa, unknown PDO teleconnections, maybe QBO phase)
7 canes (thanks to favorable shear conditions and a somewhat warm MDR)
2 majors
1 cat5


Call me blind but this doesn't look like a dry Sahel to me. It looks like around average to slightly above. Keep in mind that there is nearly no rain at all north 10N over Africa during the northern hemisphere winter. The ITCZ is still well south.

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The TCHP isn't very strong south of 20S, but the SSTs are still very warm and enough to support intensification after it hits cat. 5. If the storms stalls, it could form an upper-level anticyclone, and significantly enlarge in size before moving on to possibly hitting southeastern Queensland. This is a storm to watch, not just for the Solomon Islands and Australia and El Nino, but also for potential impacts on SSTs surrounding the Great Barrier Reef.


Indeed this storm could have a major impact, but it would likely weaken if it moved over the area south of 20S and east of 165E. Waters get warmer as you approach the Australian coast south of 20S, so if the storm makes a run at land it could still be quite potent, possibly still a severe cyclone at landfall, so yes it bears watching closely.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Call me downcaster, if you must, but I am figuring on an above average season...but just that.

13 named (yeah, good parameters...mostly...dry sahel (read: dust): http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/imgbrowses2.php?adds=&image=my&extent=wa, unknown PDO teleconnections, maybe QBO phase)
7 canes (thanks to favorable shear conditions and a somewhat warm MDR)
2 majors
1 cat5
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Hmm, it looks like either the tropical cyclones or the warm SSTs will develop in the Central Western Pacific in the next few weeks. Of course, if we have enough cyclones in the Southwest Pacific, the SSTs in that area will cool and weaken the Walker Circulation by reducing warmth and thunderstorm activity.


The western Pacific is forecast to warm this summer, which is consistent with a dying El Nino and the beginnings of a La Nina.

NINO WEST (western Pacific) SST forecast from the Japanese Meteorological Agency:

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Flying high with NASA's Joanne Simpson


Posted on Mar 12, 2010 12:20:33 AM | NASA's Earth Science News Team

Joanne Simpson, the first woman to earn a PhD in meteorology, didn’t just break into a field where women weren’t welcome. She broke the door down and accumulated a list of scientific achievements that’s rare for any scientist, regardless of gender.

Early in her career, she made the key insight that narrow cumulonimbus clouds--she called them “hot towers” -- are the engines that drive tropical circulation and help sustain the eyes of hurricanes. Later, she became one of the first scientists to develop a cloud model, an advance that ultimately sparked a whole new branch of meteorology. She spent decades with NASA, helping to lead the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, a satellite that’s led to key insights about how hurricanes start and how dust affects precipitation. And she was a key proponent for the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), the follow up satellite to TRMM.

No stranger to controversy, she stirred up a scientific furor when she sought to test the validity of her cloud model by experimenting with cloud seeding. Even well into her eighties, Simpson didn't shy from vigorous debate about the scientific basis of global warming.

In March, at the age of 86, Simpson passed away in Washington, D.C. In a recent interview with the Discovery Channel, a producer asked her what was the most fascinating thing about studying the atmosphere. “In my case, it’s the clouds,” she said without hesitation. “There are some beautiful ones out there right now,” she said while gesturing toward the window.

In tribute to Simpson’s efforts to understand clouds, we’ve chosen four of our favorite cloud images from a series of images that Simpson donated to the NOAA Photo Library and likely took. The photographs were taken from NASA's DC-8 during the TOGA-COARE project in the 1990s.
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Quoting Levi32:


I think there is definitely potential for that. We will have to see how things look by early May, but if the current trends continue I don't see a reason why we can't have a pre-June storm like we have had for the last 5 seasons in a row.



It certainly could, although it isn't clear-cut because Ului is supposed to get stuck under the nose of a subtropical ridge over eastern Australia, and may crawl around for a while under weak steering currents during the 2-5 day period. After this it could get picked up and pulled to the south by the next trough coming across southern Australia, but it's all still a little fuzzy at this point. If the trough can manage to pull Ului south of 20S, then I don't think Australia will have to deal with a severe cyclone (Cat 3 ), as SSTs and ocean heat content drop off significantly south of that line.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:



Sea Surface Temperatures:



The TCHP isn't very strong south of 20S, but the SSTs are still very warm and enough to support intensification after it hits cat. 5. If the storms stalls, it could form an upper-level anticyclone, and significantly enlarge in size before moving on to possibly hitting southeastern Queensland. This is a storm to watch, not just for the Solomon Islands and Australia and El Nino, but also for potential impacts on SSTs surrounding the Great Barrier Reef.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
SH192010 - Tropical Cyclone TOMAS

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery






RAAMB CYCLONE PAGE
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Quoting Levi32:
Here's the GFS velocity potential (upward motion) forecast for the next 15 days. Notice the current greens (net upward motion) over the central and eastern Pacific, brought on by the recent negative SOI burst which came across the equatorial Pacific, personified by Invest 90C/94P which became TC Sarah.

The GFS forecast shows this pattern leaning the opposite direction by the end of this month. Notice the greens gradually migrating westward out of the central Pacific and into the western Pacific, with more oranges (net subsidence) appearing in the central-eastern Pacific. These are signs of the decaying El Nino, with the pattern over the equatorial Pacific starting to switch back to its normal mode, which features solid easterly trade winds across the Pacific. This promotes a normal Walker Circulation with convergence and upward motion over the west Pacific and Australia, and subsidence and upwelling west of South America.

The newly developing tropical cyclones in the south Pacific are evidence of the change beginning, as they represent the dominant area of upward motion in the south Pacific, and are forming and tracking further west, closer to Australia.



Hmm, it looks like either the tropical cyclones or the warm SSTs will develop in the Central Western Pacific in the next few weeks. Of course, if we have enough cyclones in the Southwest Pacific, the SSTs in that area will cool and weaken the Walker Circulation by reducing warmth and thunderstorm activity.
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159. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Center


WWPS22 ABRF 122241
IDQ20016
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY
Issued at 2231 UTC on 12/03/10
Special Advisory Number 5
Tropical Cyclone Ului Category 2 at 1800 UTC
Located at
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 165.0E
Moving: Slowly in a WNW direction
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Mean maximum winds to 50 knots with maximum gusts to 70 knots.
The system is intensifying
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Quoting Chicklit:

What will drawing in that big blob of moisture to the east do to the energy of that low?


It looks like the broader low has five separate centers or "blobs", some upper-level and some low level, and while stuck in a complicated continental-oceanic Fujiwhara the entire system is moving east and intense thunderstorm cells are developing near some of the upper-level low pressure centers.
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Quoting Levi32:


I think there is definitely potential for that. We will have to see how things look by early May, but if the current trends continue I don't see a reason why we can't have a pre-June storm like we have had for the last 5 seasons in a row.



It certainly could, although it isn't clear-cut because Ului is supposed to get stuck under the nose of a subtropical ridge over eastern Australia, and may crawl around for a while under weak steering currents during the 2-5 day period. After this it could get picked up and pulled to the south by the next trough coming across southern Australia, but it's all still a little fuzzy at this point. If the trough can manage to pull Ului south of 20S, then I don't think Australia will have to deal with a severe cyclone (Cat 3 ), as SSTs and ocean heat content drop off significantly south of that line.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:



Sea Surface Temperatures:



Once Ului gets to 160E, it will be tracked by the BOM in Australia and we should be able to get their thoughts on the system.

Right now if you go to their site they say no cyclones in the area, but that will change tomorrow
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Quoting Levi32:


It's not a hard and fast rule though. Depending on the conditions, it can be strategic to deviate from that ratio. Last year conditions were unfavorable in the deep tropics, and as a result a lot of the storms didn't become very intense. Only 3 of the 9 storms became hurricanes, where normally 5 or 6 would have. The opposite can be true in favorable years, such as this one could be, with concentrated heat in the deep tropics. This can allow a greater percentage of named storms to reach hurricane strength.


Thank you for proving my point

While it is a general average that 60% of all named storms become hurricanes, it is not an absolute. We could very well see 19 storms and 7 hurricanes
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats because its gonna be a season like none before


Ok so that's your current prediction for this season, gotcha.
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Ului:



This storm could easily strengthen to a cat. 5. Currently about 8 degrees wide in lat/lon diameter.

Tomas:



Could potentially make a direct hit on eastern Fiji as a cat. 4. Lat/lon diameter about 10 degrees wide.

Current shear near eastern Australia:



An area south of Papua New Guinea and in the NE Gulf of Carpentaria could become the next tropical cyclone.
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thats because its gonna be a season like none before
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just threw the darts
here are some numbers for ya
21 storms
14 hurricanes
5 majors
2 cat5's


What are they supposed to mean? There's no season that I know of with those numbers. 1933 had 21 named storms (at least observed) but only 10 of those were hurricanes.

Or is that your forecast for this year?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Levi32:


It's not a hard and fast rule though. Depending on the conditions, it can be strategic to deviate from that ratio. Last year conditions were unfavorable in the deep tropics, and as a result a lot of the storms didn't become very intense. Only 3 of the 9 storms became hurricanes, where normally 5 or 6 would have. The opposite can be true in favorable years, such as this one could be, with concentrated heat in the deep tropics. This can allow a greater percentage of named storms to reach hurricane strength.

just threw the darts
here are some numbers for ya
21 storms
14 hurricanes
5 majors
2 cat5's
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Uh? The general named storm to hurricane ratio rule is 5:3 (in other words, 60% of tropical storms become hurricanes). Do your research. I'd say something, but I don't really feel like getting iggied and banned at this time.


It's not a hard and fast rule though. Depending on the conditions, it can be strategic to deviate from that ratio. Last year conditions were unfavorable in the deep tropics, and as a result a lot of the storms didn't become very intense. Only 3 of the 9 storms became hurricanes, where normally 5 or 6 would have. The opposite can be true in favorable years, such as this one could be, with concentrated heat in the deep tropics. This can allow a greater percentage of named storms to reach hurricane strength.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
all Barometer on wu seem too be a bit off. you can even find a few that even says 00.00" on here
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Based on all factors that are pointing towards an active 2010 hurricane season, do you see it possible that we could see a named storm before June 1st this season?


I think there is definitely potential for that. We will have to see how things look by early May, but if the current trends continue I don't see a reason why we can't have a pre-June storm like we have had for the last 5 seasons in a row.

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Also wondering if the Cyclone in the S Pacific Ului, will threaten Australia next week


It certainly could, although it isn't clear-cut because Ului is supposed to get stuck under the nose of a subtropical ridge over eastern Australia, and may crawl around for a while under weak steering currents during the 2-5 day period. After this it could get picked up and pulled to the south by the next trough coming across southern Australia, but it's all still a little fuzzy at this point. If the trough can manage to pull Ului south of 20S, then I don't think Australia will have to deal with a severe cyclone (Cat 3 ), as SSTs and ocean heat content drop off significantly south of that line.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:



Sea Surface Temperatures:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
South Central GA is under the gun at the moment!!!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Also wondering if the Cyclone in the S Pacific Ului, will threaten Australia next week


I believe it is too early to say, as steering currents are supposed to break down early next week. However, it is entirely possible Australia may experience a direct hit!
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Storms are coming.
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Also wondering if the Cyclone in the S Pacific Ului, will threaten Australia next week
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Quoting Levi32:
Here's the GFS velocity potential (upward motion) forecast for the next 15 days. Notice the current greens (net upward motion) over the central and eastern Pacific, brought on by the recent negative SOI burst which came across the equatorial Pacific, personified by Invest 90C/94P which became TC Sarah.

The GFS forecast shows this pattern leaning the opposite direction by the end of this month. Notice the greens gradually migrating westward out of the central Pacific and into the western Pacific, with more oranges (net subsidence) appearing in the central-eastern Pacific. These are signs of the decaying El Nino, with the pattern over the equatorial Pacific starting to switch back to its normal mode, which features solid easterly trade winds across the Pacific. This promotes a normal Walker Circulation with convergence and upward motion over the west Pacific and Australia, and subsidence and upwelling west of South America.

The newly developing tropical cyclones in the south Pacific are evidence of the change beginning, as they represent the dominant area of upward motion in the south Pacific, and are forming and tracking further west, closer to Australia.



Based on all factors that are pointing towards an active 2010 hurricane season, do you see it possible that we could see a named storm before June 1st this season?
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Quoting altesticstorm10:

19 storms and 7 hurricanes? Are you serious? *rolleyes*...Might as well go to medical school already...


Whats wrong with his prediction?

We could very easily see 19 named storms and the # of hurricanes doesnt really have a direct correlation to the number of named storms, so 7 hurricanes could also be possible
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
GAC023-153-235-289-122300-
/O.NEW.KFFC.SV.W.0009.100312T2213Z-100312T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
513 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BLECKLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
EAST CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN TWIGGS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 600 PM EST

* AT 512 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF COCHRAN
TO HAWKINSVILLE TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAWKINSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DANVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8360 3230 8355 3251 8366 3266 8328
3242 8314 3244 8317 3233 8330 3231 8329
3224 8338 3221 8334 3211 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 245DEG 33KT 3247 8350 3234 8344
3220 8353

$$

------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
GAC023-153-235-289-122300-
/O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0006.100312T2218Z-100312T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
518 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BLECKLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
EXTREME EASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTH CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN TWIGGS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 600 PM EST

* AT 517 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
COCHRAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DANVILLE AND MAGNOLIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO A
BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT WILL BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE
PLACE.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

&&

LAT...LON 3228 8351 3244 8360 3261 8326 3261 8324
3252 8319 3242 8314 3244 8317 3237 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 244DEG 34KT 3240 8345

$$
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.