An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S., warmest on record in Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on March 12, 2010

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The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.


Figure 1. Winter temperatures for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold February in the U.S.
February temperatures were 2.2°F below average across the contiguous U.S., making it the 29th coldest February in the 115-year record. For the second month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. Florida had its 4th coldest February on record. Seven other states had February temperatures between 5th and 8th coldest on record: Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Maine had its 3rd warmest February, New Hampshire its 5th, and Washington its 6th. Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in February.

Warmest and driest winter on record in Canada
Canada had its warmest winter on record, 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average, according to Environment Canada. The previous record was 3.9°C above average, set in 2005-2006. Canada also experienced its driest winter on record this year, with precipitation 22.0% below normal. The previous driest winter was 1977-1978 (20.1% below normal). Canadian weather records go back 63 years, to 1948. David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, warned of potential "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this summer due to the warm, dry winter. Phillips blamed the warm winter weather on El Niño and the severe loss of arctic sea ice last fall. The winter season in Canada has warmed, on average, by 2.5°C (4.5°F) over the past 63 years.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average in Canada for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Brazilian tropical/subtropical storm named "Anita"
The South Atlantic tropical/subtropical storm we've been tracking this week has moved over colder waters and has now transitioned to a regular extratropical storm. Earlier this week, the storm became just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic. According to a statement put out by MetSul Meteorologia, a Brazilian weather company, this storm is now named "Tropical Storm Anita:"

The regional weather centers and the private weather enterprises of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, southernmost Brazilian states, in a joint decision, named Anita the rare tropical storm of March 9th and 10th in the coastal areas of the region. The name was chosen considering a historic figure of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, both states affected by the tropical cyclone. Anita Garibaldi (1821-1849) was a heroine of the Farroupilha Revolution (1835-1845), one of the most important events in the Brazilian history that took place in the Southern part of the country. Anita was used in the past to designate tropical cyclones in other basins: North Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Next week, we need to keep an eye on northeastern Australia, where Tropical Cyclone 20 may pay a visit. The storm is under light shear and warm waters, and is forecast to increase to Category 4 strength by Monday. Also of concern is Tropical Cyclone 19, which is expected to hit Fiji as a Category 2 storm early next week.

First tornado death of the year for the U.S
A tornado that hit Cleburne, Arkansas on Wednesday caused three serious injuries and the tornado season's first fatality, a 79-year old man sheltering in his single story wood-frame home. Yesterday, a suspected tornado ripped through Haines City, Florida destroying four condos and damaging fifteen others. One person was injured. Two other tornadoes caused minor damage in central Florida. The severe weather outbreak continues today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather over portions of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. After today, the severe weather action should diminish for at least five days over the U.S. The major U.S. weather story this weekend will be flooding in the Mid-Atlantic, where heavy rains of up to four inches are expected. Soils are already saturated and the heavy snows from this winter's major snowstorms will also melt, likely creating moderate flooding problems over much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Links to follow:
Interactive tornado map
Severe weather page


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Tornado, Saline County, AR (waltdsgirl)
Tornado, Saline County, AR
deluge of rain... (happytobealive)
We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
deluge of rain...
wind damage (Openmike)
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.
wind damage

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More then often in most incases a recurve east of the u.s. is probably with the extra fuel out in the eastern atlantic. You can have 30 hurricanes but if the patttern isn't right then its all for the fish. As ive mentioned before It is that period from August 20th thru Sept. 2Oth. that is critical. If a ridge just happens to set up in the Western Atlantic at 500 mb during that period, there will likely be landfalls. If a trough sets up on or just off the east coast, any storms will not make landfall, except in the West Gulf. Just plain luck and chance. The long wave position is always changing, and rarely stays in one place more than 2 weeks. Were these systems track is anyones guess. It is the nature of warm-core lows in the tropics to spin up and become Cat 5's, and it is the environment mostly wind shear that modulates the intensity.




Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13637
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Is it me or is Ului going north of the forecast points?

Ului Floater
It is in a formation stage right now. It might be wobbling. They do that sometimes. It does look a little north of the forecast points.
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Quoting StormW:


Let's hope not...I know (we) have never gotten a whole lot of funding during my 20 years...as we are not DOD funded like the Marines, Navy, Air Force, or Army. We have always had this saying in the Coast Guard..."we make do with what we have"..and that's no lie, because we always had to. I know of 3 instances in my career where we had to cut back patrols due to fuel costs and shortages duirng my 20.
The Coast Guard saved Mom, Dad and I on Christmas Day 1985 in the Ten Thousand Islands area. If they had not found us,(it is a very difficult region to find anything there) Survival in such an area would not have been likely. After it was over, they never asked for money or anything. I have always known that it is there job to rescue people. However I also believed that we were responsible for part of the cost as well. I am forever grateful to the Coast Guard. I hope and pray the money they need comes to them soon, Especially in times like these.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it me or is Ului going north of the forecast points?

Ului Floater
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Hi Everyone.
Boy Storm that not only was sad but stupid and dangerous. Of all places to cut this is one of the worse. It is like leaving the door open and saying come on in and do what you please. I better not get started on this topic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post 229, It is sad when the gov can consider spending millions of dollars on a small island in the virgin islands to turn into a park instead of using the resources for national security. Sorry for the politics and back to lurking on weather. Thanks again for the article Storm.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yes, even the oceans...I wouldn't call that heat locked in the oceans.

And even in the upper troposphere above a TC it is still far colder than the surface almost anywhere, is it not? Longwave radiation is just a fancy way of quantifying sensible heat. 90 degree water emits many times more than 20 degree air.


Ok I understand now that you remind me of that. I guess I got confused for a minute there thinking about the ocean's high specific heat. Thanks for clarifying :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting StormW:


Let's hope not...I know (we) have never gotten a whole lot of funding during my 20 years...as we are not DOD funded like the Marines, Navy, Air Force, or Army. We have always had this saying in the Coast Guard..."we make do with what we have"..and that's no lie, because we always had to. I know of 3 instances in my career where we had to cut back patrols due to fuel costs and shortages duirng my 20.


That's just not right. Money that should be keeping the Coast Guard going strong is going to things like underpasses for deer...
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting Levi32:


Ok I'm going to press this because I want to learn more and you have gone to school for this. Yes hurricanes transport heat to the poles, which is their life's purpose, but do they not also unlock heat stored in the oceans and throw some of it into the upper troposphere? Doesn't some of that heat radiate away? The atmosphere emits longwave infrared radiation just as the earth's surface does, right? Everything emits radiation.

Yes, even the oceans...I wouldn't call that heat locked in the oceans.

And even in the upper troposphere above a TC it is still far colder than the surface almost anywhere, is it not? Longwave radiation is just a fancy way of quantifying sensible heat. 90 degree water emits many times more than 20 degree air.
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Quoting JLPR:

holly ***!!! O_O
thats a big fall, hmm so la ni%uFFFDa in 2010? That doesn't sound good :S

Well I'm hoping for a shortage of disturbances then. :3


It may not necessarily be that steep of a fall, but I do think we're headed for a La Nina by the end of the hurricane season as we look towards next winter.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Post 220. Storm, I wonder if this is some of that "change" we kept hearing about. It's just sickining to read articles like that.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Ummm, no. Heat is lost to space in the form of langwave infrared energy, period...otherwise conserved. (Conservation of heat, a law of thermodynamics just as conservation of momentum is to mechanical physics.) Hurricanes cannot change that, they just move it from tropics towards the poles. A failed attempt at heat redistribution, if you will, aptly describes a TC.

I agree about the flawed, though.

Also flawed is the notion of more and/or stronger canes in a warmer average global temp if you go along with the disproportionately warmer Arctic theory. The difference in temps between the poles and tropics is the reason for TCs, reduce that difference and reduce the cause and function of TCs.


Ok I'm going to press this because I want to learn more and you have gone to school for this. Yes hurricanes transport heat to the poles, which is their life's purpose, but they also unlock heat stored in the oceans and throw some of it into the upper troposphere. Doesn't some of that heat radiate away? The atmosphere emits longwave infrared radiation just as the earth's surface does, right? Everything emits radiation if its temperature is above absolute zero.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
225. JLPR
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ummm, no. Heat is lost to space in the form of langwave infrared energy, period...otherwise conserved. (Conservation of heat, a law of thermodynamics just as conservation of momentum is to mechanical physics.) Hurricanes cannot change that, they just move it from tropics towards the poles. A failed attempt at heat redistribution, if you will, aptly describes a TC.

I agree about the flawed, though.

Also flawed is the notion of more and/or stronger canes in a warmer average global temp if you go along with the disproportionately warmer Arctic theory. The difference in temps between the poles and tropics is the reason for TCs, reduce that difference and reduce the cause and function of TCs.


Yes hurricanes are the tropics ventilators ^^
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224. JLPR
Quoting Levi32:


The NASA model set's March forecast has us going into a steep fall in May, bringing us to central-neutral in June, and into La Nia conditions by July or August.


holly ***!!! O_O
thats a big fall, hmm so la ni%uFFFDa in 2010? That doesn't sound good :S

Well I'm hoping for a shortage of disturbances then. :3
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Quoting Levi32:


Well obviously....El Ninos nearly always warm the average global ocean and air temperatures. That is their nature. The temperature rise this January and February was expected after the El Nino peaked.

The other fact that gets ignored a lot is although hurricanes warm the atmospheric column, when you look at the big picture they are actually an effective tool for cooling the earth off. When hurricanes unlock stored energy in the oceans and blast it up into the atmosphere, that heat is now free to escape the atmosphere by radiation, instead of being held in the ocean. Therefore, hurricanes decrease the total heat contained in the earth's oceans/atmosphere, acting as a release mechanism. To say that they contribute to global warming is flawed when you consider the whole picture.

Ummm, no. Heat is lost to space in the form of langwave infrared energy, period...otherwise conserved. (Conservation of heat, a law of thermodynamics just as conservation of momentum is to mechanical physics.) Hurricanes cannot change that, they just move it from tropics towards the poles. A failed attempt at heat redistribution, if you will, aptly describes a TC. I see what you are trying to say, but I don't think that a hurricane really contributes to the amount of heat lost to space at higher latitudes.

I agree about the flawed, though.

Also flawed is the notion of more and/or stronger canes in a warmer average global temp if you go along with the disproportionately warmer Arctic theory. The difference in temps between the poles and tropics is the reason for TCs, reduce that difference and reduce the cause and function of TCs.
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Quoting StormW:
Sorry for the off topic, this was just sent to me by a coastie I was stationed with in the 70's. Me being a retired Coastie, you can understand where this hits:

Hold On To this E-mail Until the Next Disaster. When you hear someone say "Where was The Coast Guard?" send this to them!!!


Wow that is sad. These kind of decisions make no sense to me.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting StormW:


And because this was a reactionary El Nino along with a Cold PDO.


Yes exactly, good point. The transition into the cold PDO cycle isn't going to be a smooth ride. Reactionary spikes like this El Nino are to be expected on the way down. This, like you said, make those spikes unlikely to last very long before falling back down.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting Patrap:
Elevation is NEVER a escape from Flooding as the below shows us well.


A Day of Rain, Floods and Helicopter Rescues

Quoting the County Flood Control: "An unexpected and unusual storm event struck in the early morning hours of October 7, 1997, causing flash flooding through portions of the cities of San Bernardino, Highland. The major cause of the flooding that occurred was due to the vast amounts of floatable (organic) debris and mud that was produced because of the Hemlock fire which had occurred earlier in July"

I know. In Tennessee it is against the law to drive on to a flooded road, or go around a road closed sign. And we were informed before the move that the Cumberland Plateau does have flash floods and they are particularly dangerous.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Just be prepared to evacuate any areas less than (per my prediction) 29 feet above sea level, near major rivers, or large costal metropolitan areas.
When they tell me to evacuate. I will have everything ready for travel in 1 hour.
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Quoting Patrap:
Best be ready for the Ol Tennessee Sludge Flood events..
They messy things.


And this huge mess occurred two days before Christmas. They did not cover this story in detail at first. But it finally came to light the amount of pollution it really caused and the toxicity of the flow itself. It ended up in the Tennessee River and other tributaries.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Elevation is NEVER a escape from Flooding as the below shows us well.


A Day of Rain, Floods and Helicopter Rescues

Quoting the County Flood Control: "An unexpected and unusual storm event struck in the early morning hours of October 7, 1997, causing flash flooding through portions of the cities of San Bernardino, Highland. The major cause of the flooding that occurred was due to the vast amounts of floatable (organic) debris and mud that was produced because of the Hemlock fire which had occurred earlier in July"

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127640
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The ocean stores extra heat that has been trapped by the atmosphere and accumalated over time. The ocean releases some of that extra heat from tropical cyclones, spreading out as well as cooling the temperatures in the ocean and transferring more heat into the atmosphere. Of course this heat eventually dissapates, but some of that is transferred back into the oceans, but the recent output of heat and expansion of warm anomalies in the ocean could likely account for some of the stark global temperature rise we've seen over the past two months.


Well obviously....El Ninos nearly always warm the average global ocean and air temperatures. That is their nature. The temperature rise this January and February was expected after the El Nino peaked.

The other fact that gets ignored a lot is although hurricanes warm the atmospheric column, when you look at the big picture they are actually an effective tool for cooling the earth off. When hurricanes unlock stored energy in the oceans and blast it up into the atmosphere, that heat is now free to escape the atmosphere by radiation, instead of being held in the ocean. Therefore, hurricanes decrease the total heat contained in the earth's oceans/atmosphere, acting as a release mechanism. To say that they contribute to global warming is flawed when you consider the whole picture.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting hydrus:
My parents have prepared early. They moved to Tennessee on to the Cumberland Plateau. They were living in S.W.Florida :)


Just be prepared to evacuate any areas less than (per my prediction) 29 feet above sea level, near major rivers, or large costal metropolitan areas.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Best be ready for the Ol Tennessee Sludge Flood events..
They messy things.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127640
Quoting Levi32:


Taking heat energy from the ocean and moving it to another location is not a net increase in the earth's heat. When hurricanes throw heat, taken from the oceans, up into the atmosphere, the oceans cool and eventually the atmosphere will respond to that and cool back down as well. Hurricanes do not create energy that didn't already exist in some potential or kinetic form in the oceans or the atmosphere.


The ocean stores extra heat that has been trapped by the atmosphere and accumalated over time. The ocean releases some of that extra heat from tropical cyclones, spreading out as well as cooling the temperatures in the ocean and transferring more heat into the atmosphere. Of course this heat eventually dissapates, but some of that is transferred back into the oceans, but the recent output of heat and expansion of warm anomalies in the ocean could likely account for some of the stark global temperature rise we've seen over the past two months.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Levi32:


Nice :) I'm sure they will be safe there lol.
If the storm surge rises above 1200 feet, Dad said the house is well insulated and should float during the worst part of the cane.
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209. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


The NASA model set's March forecast has us going into a steep fall in May, bringing us to central-neutral in June, and into La Nina conditions by July or August.


thanks
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Quoting hydrus:
My parents have prepared early. They moved to Tennessee on to the Cumberland Plateau. :)


Nice :) I'm sure they will be safe there lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, and the consensus just goes to show how strong the signs are right now. Hopefully this will drive people to get ready now, and be fully prepared should the worst happen.
My parents have prepared early. They moved to Tennessee on to the Cumberland Plateau. They were living in S.W.Florida :)
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Quoting JRRP:
this has not update yet


The NASA model set's March forecast has us going into a steep fall in May, bringing us to central-neutral in June, and into La Nina conditions by July or August.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562






getagameplan.org

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127640
204. JRRP
this has not update yet
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Quoting hydrus:
Thank you for your response. If the QBO becomes westerly, the MJO may play a more significant role in this years Atlantic season. In years past, there was always some disagreement with how active a season might be. This year I see everyone is actually in agreement that 2010 will above average.


Yeah, and the consensus just goes to show how strong the signs are right now. Hopefully this will drive people to get ready now, and be fully prepared should the worst happen.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Link

the area around axial volcano is acting up again. sorry, i have a had interest in this submarine volcano for a while.
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Quoting Levi32:


That can happen, but overall global tropical cyclone activity hasn't been that high recently, and so far hasn't really taken a jump in the southern hemisphere this year according to the graph below. Also, if the current model forecasts end up being correct, then the Atlantic could be the greatest focus of heat in the northern hemisphere tropics this summer. I don't see another basin overpowering the Atlantic significantly. The only one that could get close in the heat battle is the Indian Ocean, which is entirely warmer than normal right now.



The southern hemisphere tropical cyclone season total ACE so far is running pretty close to average, as they are currently at the peak of their tropical season.

2010 TC Activity
Updated Mar 11 12Z
BASIN 2010 ACE NORMAL YEARLY ACE**
Southern Hemisphere 128 (current so far) 204 (normal yearly)
Northern Hemisphere 0 (current so far) 563 (normal yearly)
Thank you for your response. If the QBO becomes westerly, the MJO may play a more significant role in this years Atlantic season. In years past, there was always some disagreement with how active a season might be. This year I see everyone is actually in agreement that 2010 will above average.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


El Nino has been rather erratic lately, and it is only weakening because the ENSO warm pool is expanding into normally cool areas. Aside from the main warm anomaly near the equator, three other large areas of anomalies (stemming from the original ENSO warm pool and brought to these places by storms and atypical currents) exist in "boxes" that can be defined as 60-70S, 70-180W; 35-60S, 100-140W; 25-40S, 145-175W. This heat however will likely move into the WPac soon enough, but the potential for large storms means that the area could cool a few times.


The El Nino is dying because that's what they do after peaking in the winter, especially during a cold PDO when they are usually short-lived. You can see the cold PDO signature of cold water west of South America and in the eastern pacific starting to squeeze off the warm tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific:

This Month:



Last Month:



Notice the western Pacific warming and the north Pacific taking on a much more cold PDO look than last month. Even the south Pacific is coming along towards a cold look too.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
199. JRRP
Quoting atmoaggie:

All I am saying is that the early season will have the usual...as opposed to less dust and dry air than usual. This keeps the numbers from getting too terribly high.

Look here: http://jisao.washington.edu/data/sahel/

The Sahel rainfall index for Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr was, overall, above average in 2003, 2004, 2005. Below to average since.

Yes, I might change it up a bit once I see precip anomalies for Feb and March, but this doesn't give much of an impression of significantly above average precip, either (admittedly only for January): http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=global&file=map-prcp-percent&year=2010&am p;month=1&ex t=gif

1995 were below average
2005 were average
and the hurricane season were active

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Quoting atmoaggie:

The Sahel:



Yeah, Sahel :)

Doesn't make too much difference right now though because as you said, normal is bone dry north of 10N this time of year. May-August is the most important period to watch SRI.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting atmoaggie:

All I am saying is that the early season will have the usual...as opposed to less dust and dry air than usual. This keeps the numbers from getting too terribly high.

Look here: http://jisao.washington.edu/data/sahel/

The Sahel rainfall index for Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr was, overall, above average in 2003, 2004, 2005. Below to average since.

Yes, I might change it up a bit once I see precip anomalies for Feb and March, but this doesn't give much of an impression of significantly above average precip, either (admittedly only for January): http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=global&file=map-prcp-percent&year=2010&am p;month=1&ex t=gif


I know, I'm just trying to figure out where you're coming from. I see your point. I'll be looking out for the Sahel Rainfall Index during the first couple months of the season, as that is when it makes the most difference. We shall see how it turns out. 1995 had a pretty dry year in the Sahel and still had 19 storms with a healthy Cape Verde season.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Well the Atlantic already saw its first named storm, Anita, but the first North Atlantic system I predicted May 23rd 2010. Wonder if I'll get close.

Edited season predictions, based on ENSO rates.

13-15 named Storms (close range from my 11-16 named)

5-6 Hurricanes

3-4 Majors.

Possible Category 5 in August or September.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
Quoting Levi32:


Well the recent extreme negative SOI burst threw off most of the model forecasts, so I'm not surprised it's behind schedule. It will warm though as the El Nino decays.


El Nino has been rather erratic lately, and it is only weakening because the ENSO warm pool is expanding into normally cool areas. Aside from the main warm anomaly near the equator, three other large areas of anomalies (stemming from the original ENSO warm pool and brought to these places by storms and atypical currents) exist in "boxes" that can be defined as 60-70S, 70-180W; 35-60S, 100-140W; 25-40S, 145-175W. This heat however will likely move into the WPac soon enough, but the potential for large storms means that the area could cool a few times.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Levi32:
So far looks like a pretty moist Africa this winter:


The Sahel:

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Quoting Levi32:


Why do you say that? I haven't seen a forecast for a dry Sahel yet. The models are pointing towards average to above average during the summer. And it's not the dust that's the problem, it's the pattern that causes the dust, the dry air that allows the dust to fly.

All I am saying is that the early season will have the usual...as opposed to less dust and dry air than usual. This keeps the numbers from getting too terribly high.

Look here: http://jisao.washington.edu/data/sahel/

The Sahel rainfall index for Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr was, overall, above average in 2003, 2004, 2005. Below to average since.

Yes, I might change it up a bit once I see precip anomalies for Feb and March, but this doesn't give much of an impression of significantly above average precip, either (admittedly only for January): http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=global&file=map-prcp-percent&year=2010&month=1&ex t=gif
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The heat is mostly in the SSTs, and tropical cyclones would take that heat out of the oceans and dump it into the troposphere (thereby speeding up global warming), and the North Atlantic should warm just as rapidly as the South Atlantic did earlier this year. However, little of the heat would be released into the upper atmosphere, as the cool lower stratosphere should keep most of the water vapour and latent heat confined to the troposphere.


Taking heat energy from the ocean and moving it to another location is not a net increase in the earth's heat. When hurricanes throw heat, taken from the oceans, up into the atmosphere, the oceans cool and eventually the atmosphere will respond to that and cool back down as well. Hurricanes do not create energy that didn't already exist in some potential or kinetic form in the oceans or the atmosphere.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting Patrap:


Went with FF 3.6



Good choice for now. I'd use it too if I hadn't gotten so fast at using Chrome that using Firefox would just make my work slower.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting hydrus:
This is an unusual question, but might have some scientific viability. If tropical cyclone activity is much higher than normal in the southern hemisphere and the North-Western pacific (which can form typhoons year round), could this lead a slight reduction of tropical storms and hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane season? With massive amounts of heat energy being released from the atmosphere, it might reduce the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Sorta like the release valve on a pressure cooker.


The heat is mostly in the SSTs, and tropical cyclones would take that heat out of the oceans and dump it into the troposphere (thereby speeding up global warming), and the North Atlantic should warm just as rapidly as the South Atlantic did earlier this year. However, little of the heat would be released into the upper atmosphere, as the cool lower stratosphere should keep most of the water vapour and latent heat confined to the troposphere.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Levi32:


Still using Chrome there Pat?


Went with FF 3.6

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127640

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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Mostly Cloudy