Rare South Atlantic subtropical cyclone forms; severe weather season in U.S. underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on March 10, 2010

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A rare weather event is underway in the South Atlantic Ocean, where the basin's 7th recorded tropical or subtropical cyclone of all-time has formed. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 90Q) off the coast of Brazil, near 30S 48W, attained a well-defined surface circulation, top wind speeds of tropical depression strength (35 mph), a warm core in the bottom portion of the atmosphere, and a cold core aloft last night. If this storm had been in the North Atlantic, there is a good chance it would have been named Subtropical Depression One. However, tropical and subtropical storms are so rare in the South Atlantic that there is no official naming of depressions or storms done. The cyclone had top winds of at least 35 mph as seen on an ASCAT pass at 7:02 am EST this morning (Figure 2), and satellite estimates of the storm's intensity topped out at 40 mph (minimum subtropical storms strength) last night. This morning, the satellite estimates are showing that the system has weakened to a 35 mph tropical depression. There is some moderate wind shear interfering with development, and sea surface temperatures are about 25°C, which is about 1°C below what is typically needed to support a tropical storm. The storm is headed eastward out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The models show the storm will lose its tropical characteristics and get absorbed by a frontal system by Saturday.


Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite image of the Brazilian Invest 90Q.


Figure 2. Satellite-measured winds from ASCAT clearly show the circulation of the cyclone in this pass from 7:02 am EST on March 10, 2010. Top winds as seen be ASCAT were 30 knots (35 mph), just below the 40 mph needed for it to be a tropical storm. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.

Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms). Today's storm is located close to where Catarina formed.

Severe weather season begins
It's March, and that means severe weather season will get underway in earnest for the Midwest U.S., and powerful spring storm systems draw warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico northward, to collide with cold, dry air from Canada. It's been a quiet early season, with only 42 tornadoes reported thus far this year (as of Sunday), compared to a normal 70 - 100 twisters. There was only one tornado in the U.S. in February, in a San Joaquin Valley oilfield in California two weekends ago. A year ago, there were 36 February tornadoes, and the year's deadliest tornado occurred on Feb. 10, 2009, in Lone Grove, Oklahoma, where eight people died in a storm with winds estimated at 170 mph. But thanks to a very wet winter and a continued active jet stream pattern that will pull strong storms through the Midwestern U.S. this month, expect at least an average March for severe weather. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley today, in association with a strong cold front that will be plowing through the region. Strong thuderstorms capable of generating damaging winds and large hail should develop along the front from southeast Kansas through eastern Oklahoma into NE Texas by middle/late afternoon. The storms should consolidate into broken bands and move into Missouri and and Arkansas by early evening. Isolated tornadoes are also possible in the entire "slight" risk area.


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Hurricane Hugo talk
I'm presenting a talk to a class at the University of Michigan this morning on my 1989 flight through Hurricane Hugo. You can listen in live starting at about 10:10 - 10:15 am EST by pointing your browser to http://samson.lecturetools.org/. You'll need to have Apple Quicktime installed. If all goes well, the talk will be recorded and you can view it later, as well.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Floodman:
Wow, out of nowhere, someone begs to be ignored...don't worry little fella, I took care of it for you!


HeHe
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Quoting Levi32:


WOOT!! It did it! The convection became deep enough to warm the entire core, and the storm is now in the same class of tropical storms as Vince, becoming tropical in the face of sub-26C SSTs and troughing aloft.


Umm, wow.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Jeff9641:


Thanks Buddy! It looks as if the storm has lost some of it's rotation.


NO === IT HASN'T


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
LITTLE RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FOREMAN...ASHDOWN...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
847 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 00Z MAR 10). THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 33S 45W EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST INTO BRASIL ALONG 20S 50W. THIS FEATURE IS DECOUPLING
FROM A WARM CORE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL...WITH
CLOSED CIRCULATION ESTIMATED NEAR 29.6S 48.2W. ALTHOUGH A
TIGHT/COMPACT STORM...IT IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL.
FARTHER NORTH...A NARROW RIDGE STRETCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN BRASIL WHILE STRUNG ALONG CLOSED HIGHS AT 07S 65W
AND 19S 35W. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION
FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN PERU...ACROSS AMAZONAS/PARA IN WESTERN
BRASIL TO BAHIA/ESPIRITO SANTO IN EASTERN BRASIL.



WOOT!! It did it! The convection became deep enough to warm the entire core, and the storm is now in the same class of tropical cyclones as Vince of 2005, becoming tropical in the face of sub-26C SSTs and troughing aloft.

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Quoting TampaTom:
I'm doing some research to write an article about the Super Outbreak of 1974...

WOW...

168 storms... 320 dead... $3.5 billion in damage...

Wrote a report on that one in college, myself. What a severe WX event that was...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
847 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 00Z MAR 10). THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 33S 45W EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST INTO BRASIL ALONG 20S 50W. THIS FEATURE IS DECOUPLING
FROM A WARM CORE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL...WITH
CLOSED CIRCULATION ESTIMATED NEAR 29.6S 48.2W. ALTHOUGH A
TIGHT/COMPACT STORM...IT IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL. FARTHER NORTH...A NARROW RIDGE STRETCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN BRASIL WHILE STRUNG ALONG CLOSED HIGHS AT 07S 65W
AND 19S 35W. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION
FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN PERU...ACROSS AMAZONAS/PARA IN WESTERN
BRASIL TO BAHIA/ESPIRITO SANTO IN EASTERN BRASIL.

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Storm H1 on Shreveport radar south of I-30 near Naples, Texas is exhibiting some rotation. Radar estimates hail over 2 inches in diameter with this storm.

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Quoting TampaTom:
I'm doing some research to write an article about the Super Outbreak of 1974...

WOW...

168 storms... 320 dead... $3.5 billion in damage...


I remember that one...it was a bad year in general, '74
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Does anybody have radio velocity images for that area because radar presentation looks fantastic?






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Wow, out of nowhere, someone begs to be ignored...don't worry little fella, I took care of it for you!
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I'm doing some research to write an article about the Super Outbreak of 1974...

WOW...

168 storms... 320 dead... $3.5 billion in damage...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting cgmaddog:
If you ever lived in Alaska do not tell any of us who has about the storms. I have been in rain storms where the gusts were clocked at over 100 mph with sustained winds of 65mph. I recall a nice day to send the kids out to play was when the rain was not blowing side ways. I have worked a few years sailing the gulf of Alaska in winter and it ain't pretty. A hurricane does not sit there for days and days!

Mike


Actually, there have been quite a few hurricanes that have sat on top of places for a few days.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Rotating supercells near Texarkana. Tornadoes are imminent in NE TX and SE Oklahoma. Get ready and head for shelter in the path of these storms.

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CORRUPTION AT UN CLIMATE PANEL


Link
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A man and his wife were awakened at 3:00 am by a loud pounding on the door.

The man gets up and goes to the door where a drunken stranger, standing in the pouring rain, is asking for a push.

"Not a chance," says the husband, "it’s 3:00 in the morning!"

He slams the door and returns to bed.

"Who was that?" asked his wife.

"Just some drunk guy asking for a push," he answers.

"Did you help him?" she asks..

"No, I did not, it’s 3:00 in the morning and it is pouring rain out there!"

"Well, you have a short memory," says his wife.
"Can't you remember about three months ago when we broke down and those two guys helped us?

I think you should help him, and you should be ashamed of yourself!"

The man does as he is told, gets dressed, and goes out into the pounding rain.

He calls out into the dark, "Hello, are you still there?"

"Yes," comes back the answer.

"Do you still need a push?" calls out the husband.

"Yes, please!" comes the reply from the dark.
"Where are you?" asks the husband.

"Over here on the swing," replied the drunk.
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Quoting cgmaddog:
If you ever lived in Alaska do not tell any of us who has about the storms. I have been in rain storms where the gusts were clocked at over 100 mph with sustained winds of 65mph. I recall a nice day to send the kids out to play was when the rain was not blowing side ways. I have worked a few years sailing the gulf of Alaska in winter and it ain't pretty. A hurricane does not sit there for days and days!

Mike


Lot's of hurricanes and tropical storms through the years have stalled and became stationary and sat on top of a place's for days.



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If you ever lived in Alaska do not tell any of us who has about the storms. I have been in rain storms where the gusts were clocked at over 100 mph with sustained winds of 65mph. I recall a nice day to send the kids out to play was when the rain was not blowing side ways. I have worked a few years sailing the gulf of Alaska in winter and it ain't pretty. A hurricane does not sit there for days and days!

Mike
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Last visible shot before sunset on Invest 90Q. There is some very nice deep convection partially covering the LLC, the deepest convection we have seen yet with this system. There is also an impressive spiral band in the eastern semicircle. West to northwesterly wind shear is preventing the system from strengthening much, and is responsible for the LLC being partially exposed. However, this is the best and most tropical I have seen this system look so far.

90Q has begun to move eastward over the last 12 hours in response to a deepening trough digging in from the southwest. The system will continue eastward over the south Atlantic and gradually curve poleward towards the southeast over the next couple days. Today is likely the last day before 90Q undergoes extratropical transition.

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Quoting Levi32:


This one is not one of the most intense ones, due to the fact that the coldest air has already been over us for 36 hours and the pressure and temperature gradients are gone. You can't see what's going on under the heaviest band. Homer's airport is far to the east of where the band is.

I am not, however, making an invalid comparison. This one last year in January brought 60mph sustained winds with hurricane-force gusts to us for 12 hours, dumping 30 inches of snow. These systems are wicked, and can get very intense. Obviously some will be weaker than others.



That one does look rather nasty.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


You saying intense polar lows that resemble hurricane doesnt sound right, your winds are 5mph right now from the east with light snow, nothing intense about that.

When I hear intense and hurricane like I think of strong winds excess of 70 mph and everything that comes along with a hurricane.

Not trying under mind you or anything, I just think some people in here can get the wrong idea about the system your talking about by the use of certain words.

WU Homer


This one is not one of the most intense ones, due to the fact that the coldest air has already been over us for 36 hours and the pressure and temperature gradients are gone. You can't see what's going on under the heaviest band. Homer's airport is far to the east of where the band is.

I am not, however, making an invalid comparison in calling them hurricane-like. This one last year in January brought 60mph sustained winds with hurricane-force gusts to us for 12 hours, dumping 30 inches of snow. These systems are wicked, and can get very intense. Obviously some will be weaker than others.

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You saying intense polar lows that resemble hurricane doesnt sound right, your winds are 5mph right now from the east with light snow, nothing intense about that.

When I hear intense and hurricane like I think of strong winds excess of 70 mph and everything that comes along with a hurricane.

Not trying under mind you or anything, I just think some people in here can get the wrong idea about the system your talking about by the use of certain words.

WU Homer
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Quoting NEwxguy:
As the spring moves along,I guess we'll start to see some of the old summer crowd making an appearance,this is a good thing.
Especially as the severe weather season cranks up.


I agree...it will be good to see some of the summer regulars back here
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448
WUUS54 KFWD 101943
SVRFWD
TXC139-257-102045-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0030.100310T1943Z-100310T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
143 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
KAUFMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 143 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF COTTONWOOD TO 4
MILES SOUTH OF ENNIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
ALMA BY 150 PM
COTTONWOOD BY 205 PM
KAUFMAN BY 210 PM
TERRELL AND GRAYS PRAIRIE BY 215 PM
KEMP BY 225 PM
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NOAA-17 AVHRR satellite pass from 10:17am AKST (30 minutes ago), showing the mesoscale low west of Homer, which has a classic eye-like feature, common in intense mesoscale convective polar lows that resemble miniature hurricanes here in Cook Inlet.



Latest Radar:

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Terra MODIS Visible image of Invest 90Q from 16:49 UTC (3 hours ago):

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SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 21
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY
ALABAMA TO 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 19...WW 20...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. VEERING
SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY VICINITY WNW/ESE THERMAL BOUNDARY
FROM CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL AL ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR AS NOTED ON
18Z JAN SOUNDING ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ALSO TORNADOS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT FORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.


...HALES

Hazard Tornadoes EF2 Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2" Hail
Moderate Moderate


Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

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As the spring moves along,I guess we'll start to see some of the old summer crowd making an appearance,this is a good thing.
Especially as the severe weather season cranks up.
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So basically... Joe Bastardi has been reading this blog.
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113. xcool
There are a number of physical drivers that have Bastardi concerned for this upcoming hurricane season. These include:

-The rapidly weakening El Niño

-Warmer ocean temperatures in the typical Atlantic tropical breeding grounds compared to last year. (Tropical storms draw energy from warm water.)

-Weakening trade winds which reduce the amount of dry air injected into the tropics from Africa

-Higher humidity levels which provides additional upward motion in the air and fuels tropical storm development

Bastardi compared a number of years to the upcoming season in terms of storm set up including 1964, 1995, and 1998. All were major impact seasons for the U.S. coast.

In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck southeast Florida near Miami as a Category 2 storm and killed 217 people.

In 1995, Hurricane Opal made landfall in Pensacola, Florida as a Category 3 storm affecting 200 miles of coastline and causing $3 billion in damages.

In 1998 Hurricane Bonnie struck near Wilmington, North Carolina as a borderline Category 2 to Category 3 storm causing significant harm to crops and $1 billion in damages.

As Bastardi had predicted in last year's hurricane forecast, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a year far below the average, with eleven tropical depressions forming and only nine of those becoming tropical storms, the lowest number of named tropical storms or hurricanes since the 1997 season.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. These dates were selected because 97 percent of hurricane activity occurs during this six month period.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
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111. xcool
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released their early hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic Basin for 2010.

The forecast is calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline.

"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said Bastardi. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."

Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

He is calling for 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land.

In a typical season, there are about 11 named storms of which two to three impact the coast of the United States.
There are a number of physical drivers that have Bastardi concerned for this upcoming hurricane season. These include:

-The rapidly weakening El Nio

-Warmer ocean temperatures in the typical Atlantic tropical breeding grounds compared to last year. (Tropical storms draw energy from warm water.)

-Weakening trade winds which reduce the amount of dry air injected into the tropics from Africa

-Higher humidity levels which provides additional upward motion in the air and fuels tropical storm development

Bastardi compared a number of years to the upcoming season in terms of storm set up including 1964, 1995, and 1998. All were major impact seasons for the U.S. coast.

In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck southeast Florida near Miami as a Category 2 storm and killed 217 people.

In 1995, Hurricane Opal made landfall in Pensacola, Florida as a Category 3 storm affecting 200 miles of coastline and causing $3 billion in damages.

In 1998 Hurricane Bonnie struck near Wilmington, North Carolina as a borderline Category 2 to Category 3 storm causing significant harm to crops and $1 billion in damages.

As Bastardi had predicted in last year's hurricane forecast, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a year far below the average, with eleven tropical depressions forming and only nine of those becoming tropical storms, the lowest number of named tropical storms or hurricanes since the 1997 season.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. These dates were selected because 97 percent of hurricane activity occurs during this six month period.

Link : http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... 2010-1.asp
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
110. xcool
Joe Bastardi: More Active 2010 Hurricane Season


call for 15-7-5 .im call for 16-7-4 lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Floodman:
Hey, Viking! How you been?

Been good, trying to stay warm with this cold winter we've had! I see you been busy with Haiti, good man! I plan to clean up the boat this Saturday and wake it up form it's winter sleep. Looks to be sunny and about 65 Saturday, perfect temp for working on the boat and not sweating up a storm!
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
I am well...And you?


I'm doing...been working on a lot of new things for Haiti
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107. xcool
16.7.4
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
79 degrees here in St. Petersburg, FL.

Humidity: 42 %
Wind Speed: S 12 G 20 MPH
Barometer: 29.91" (1012.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 54 °F (12 °C)
Heat Index: 79 °F (26 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
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Hey, Viking! How you been?
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alright I'm out, it's way too beautiful out to be inside. 70 and sunny, and time for some good ole Indiana basketball!

take care all
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.