Record warmth in Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:52 PM GMT on March 08, 2010

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Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes were at their highest February level on record last month, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. The region between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America, is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)


Figure 1. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for March 7, 2010, as derived from the AMSR and AVHRR satellite data. Image credit: NOAA.

SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 85°W) were an eye-opening 1.02°C above average during February. This easily beats the previous record of 0.83°C set in 1998. SSTs in the Main Development Region are already warmer than they were during June of last year, which is pretty remarkable, considering February is usually the coldest month of the year for SSTs in the North Atlantic. The 1.02°C anomaly is the 6th highest monthly SST anomaly for the MDR on record. The only other months with higher anomalies all occurred during 2005 (April, May, June, July, and September 2005 had anomalies of 1.06°C - 1.23°C).

What is responsible for the high SSTs?
Don't blame El Niño for the high Atlantic SSTs. El Niño is a warming of the Pacific waters near the Equator, and has no direct impact on Atlantic SSTs. Instead, blame the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. They are some of the oldest known climate oscillations; seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High, the AO/NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen the most negative AO and NAO patterns since record keeping began in 1950, which caused a very cold winter in Florida and surrounding states. A negative AO/NAO implies a very weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region were 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average (Figure 2). Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean has heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter. This heating is superimposed on the very warm global SSTs we've been seeing over the past decade, leading to the current record warmth. Global and Northern Hemisphere SSTs were the 2nd warmest on record in both December and January.


Figure 2. Sea level pressure averaged for the period December 2009 - February 2010 (left) and the sea level pressure averaged for the period December - February from the long-term mean (1968 - 1998). This winter, the Azores-Bermuda High was about 3 - 4 mb weaker than in a typical winter, due to strongly negative AO/NAO conditions. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 3. Departure of surface wind speed from average for December 2009 - February 2010. Winds were about 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) lower than average over the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What does this imply for the coming hurricane season?
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach of the University of Colorado, February temperatures in the MDR are not strongly correlated with active hurricane seasons. The mathematical correlation between hurricane season Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and February SSTs is only 0.26, which is considered weak. Past hurricane seasons that had high February SST anomalies include 1998 (0.83°C anomaly), 2007 (0.71°C anomaly), and 1958 (0.68°C anomaly). These three years averaged 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, which is considerably higher than the average of 10, 6, and 2. The big question is, how long will the strong negative AO/NAO conditions keep the Azores-Bermuda High weak? Well, the AO has risen to near-neutral values over the past week, and the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model show that the AO and NAO will not be as strongly negative during March. This should allow the Azores-Bermuda High to strengthen some this month and increase the trade winds over the MDR. However, I still expect we'll set a record for warmest-ever March SSTs in the Main Development Region. Longer term, the crystal ball is very fuzzy, as our ability to predict the weather months in advance is poor. The long-range NOAA CFS model is predicting SSTs in the Atlantic MDR will be about 0.70°C above average during the peak months of hurricane season, making it one of the top five warmest years on record--but not as warm as the unbelievable Hurricane Season of 2005, which averaged 0.95°C above normal during August - October. The other big question is, when will El Niño fade? El Niño is currently holding steady at moderate intensity, and I expect that will continue through at least mid-April. It is possible El Niño will linger long enough into the year that it will create increased wind shear that will suppress this year's hurricane season.

Brazilian disturbance
An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Brazil, near 24S 36W, has changed little over the past two days. This disturbance still has a slight potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression by Wednesday, according to the latest runs of the ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS models. Satellite imagery shows little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 27°C, about 1°C above average, which is warm enough to support a tropical storm. The system is small, limiting its potential to become a tropical cyclone. I don't think it will become a subtropical depression.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters

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550. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

WTNT80 EGRR 071800
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.03.2010
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 24.2S 39.7W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.03.2010 24.2S 39.7W WEAK
12UTC 08.03.2010 27.3S 42.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.03.2010 29.4S 45.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.03.2010 30.1S 47.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.03.2010 30.1S 47.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.03.2010 30.6S 47.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.03.2010 31.4S 47.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.03.2010 32.1S 45.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.03.2010 33.5S 42.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.03.2010 35.4S 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.03.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK


---
UKMET model suggestion for "90T"
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45310
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Storm what concerns me is this: Could we see an elevated Cape Verde season comparable to years before 09? Last year we saw nothing in the way of any real CV activity, could the water temps that we are seeing off the coast of Africa in anyway impact the CONUS and or the caribbean in the coming months??


We could see a net increase in Cape Verde activity for decades to come if the Sahel Rainfall cycle continues. This graph shows a clear multi-decadal trend of roughly 50 years since 1900, and we appear to be on the up-swing towards a more moist Sahel region, hence less dry air and more favorable conditions for tropical waves to develop over the eastern Atlantic.

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If they were to name this system, one might think that they might take the idea of using Alpha beta, something along that line.
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One last item before I go back into blog hibernation till the season starts. I was reading a local paper recently, the talk was that we are looking at a Neutral La Nina year, whats the tendency after having a very cold winter to then have a neutral year in the way of El Nino or La Nina? Does the unusually long winter have any impact on what our season will be like; The way the Jetstream is set up, whats the talk as to whether that type of set up will be around for the remainder of spring into summer?
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546. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Cyclone Catarina had another name "Aldonça" according to many RSMC websites.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45310
Storm what concerns me is this: Could we see an elevated Cape Verde season comparable to years before 09? Last year we saw nothing in the way of any real CV activity, could the water temps that we are seeing off the coast of Africa in anyway impact the CONUS and or the caribbean in the coming months??
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544. WAHA
I came up with a naming scheme:
Abrew (ay brew)
Beth (Beth)
Charlen (char len)
Drake (jra ke)
Evangen (ev en gen)
Faina (fah ean uh)
Gerean (jer en)
So 90Q is Subtropical depression Abrew.
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Quoting Skyepony:
I think Catarina was named Catarina because it made landfall near a place with Catarina in it's name.. Santa Catarina?


Close, it was named after the state in which it made landfall, Santa Catarina.

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Quoting StormW:
CFS (Climate Forecast System)

Forecast SLP means by month Valid 00Z 09 MAR 2010:

MAR 1024mb
APR 1019mb
MAY 1023mb
JUN 1026mb
JUL 1026mb
AUG 1022mb
SEP 1019mb
OCT 1016mb
NOV 1016mb


Thanks Storm, I couldn't post the Accuweather image but I forgot about just writing out the values.

So troy, the CFS is generally forecasting a weaker-than average Azores/Bermuda High this summer, with maybe the exception of June and July. The CFS has surface pressures below normal in the deep tropics throughout the entire hurricane season.
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541. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
540. Skyepony (Mod)
I think Catarina was named Catarina because it made landfall near a place with Catarina in it's name.. Santa Catarina?
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539. xcool
buzzzz hi
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
538. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Brazil Meteorological Services
Link
================================

NOTE: A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LIES OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF BRASIL...WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1003 HPA...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-34KT. DEEP
CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND WITH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C...THIS SYSTEM MIGHT MAKE THE
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL PERSISTS...WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEVERE CONVECTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.

MODEL COMPARISON (VALID FROM 00Z MAR 09). MODELS MADE SHORT WAVE
CORRECTIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC...AS THEY NOW FAVOR LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE NUMEROUS
PERTURBATIONS TO ENTER THE DOMAIN. THE ODD MODEL IS THE ECMWF...
AS IT FORESEES A VERY DEEP CLIPPER LOW TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE TO TIERRA DEL FUEGO BY 108 HRS. THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN DISARRAY...SHOWING HIGH VARIABILITY IN
THIS REGION AND GIVEN LITTLE SUPPORT TO THE OUTLIER SOLUTION AS
PRESENTED BY THIS MODEL.

AS INDICATED...A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LIES OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF BRASIL. ALOFT...A 200 HPA LOW OVER SOUTHERN SAO PAULO/SANTA
CATARINA ANCHORS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA. AT LOW LEVELS...A WARM CORE 1003 HPA LOW CENTERS OFF THE
COAST...SUSTAINING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THROUGH 36-48 HRS
THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL EJECT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PARAGUAY/SOUTHERN
BRASIL. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL THROUGH 48-54
HRS. BY 60-72 HRS...THE LOW WILL START TO EJECT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS A POLAR FRONT LIFTS ACROSS URUGUAY. AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE EJECTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENTER COOLER
WATERS...AND IT IS THEN FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. MEANWHILE...THIS SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN STRONG WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BRASIL TO RANGE BETWEEN 25-34KT...WHILE ON
THE SERRA DO MAR THE WINDS COULD PEAK AT 50KT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF 20-45MM/DAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND IF A STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHES...THEY COULD EXCEED 250MM. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH...SO PLAN FOR THE WORST.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45310
537. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13F //
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14F

10:00 AM FST March 10 2010
==============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 13F (1003 hPa) located at 12.0S 167.0E is reported as moving slowly. Position POOR based on infrared/visible imagery with animation. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Vertical wind shear is low.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hrs is LOW.

System #2
-----------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 14F (1006 hPa) located at 13.5S 171.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on infrared/visible imagery with animation. Sea surface temperature is 30C. Vertical wind shear is low.

The EC Global Weather Model expect 14F to slowly move southwestward and gradually intensify.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hrs is LOW TO MODERATE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45310
Quoting troy1993:
So Levi 32 it looks like Wind Shear of the MDR and Carribean is forecast by the CFS is suppose to be below average during hurricane season..does this mean we could potentially see a few Cape-Verde type hurricanes?


Yes I do believe conditions will be quite favorable for us to see an active Cape Verde season.
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So Levi 32 it looks like Wind Shear of the MDR and Carribean is forecast by the CFS is suppose to be below average during hurricane season..does this mean we could potentially see a few Cape-Verde type hurricanes?
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532. MTWX
Quoting ElConando:


I had a ordinary phone until July of last year. All could do was call people cuz my plan did not cover text. Now my world is a whole lot brighter :P.

Mine does text but thats the extent of it. I just have a cheapo flip phone, because the work I do both on and off duty, I go through some phones...LOL
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting troy1993:
Hey Levi 32..what is the CFS current forecast for SST's, Surface Pressures, and Wind Shear for the upcoming hurricane season?


SSTs

Wind Shear

I can't find CFS surface pressure forecasts on a free site. Perhaps someone else has a link, but I have never seen one before.
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Quoting MTWX:

I'm kinda behind the times electronically too. People poke fun at me because I still use a 35mm camera. I have to get the laptop in working travel order (been using it as my home computer since my desktop was struck by lightning... go figure), and I am one of those people that a phone is a phone, no offense to those of you that have one of those fancy ones that take care of everything for you.


I had a ordinary phone until July of last year. All could do was call people cuz my plan did not cover text. Now my world is a whole lot brighter :P.
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528. MTWX
Quoting MTWX:

I'm kinda behind the times electronically too. People poke fun at me because I still use a 35mm camera. I have to get the laptop in working travel order (been using it as my home computer since my desktop was struck by lightning... go figure), and I am one of those people that a phone is a phone, no offense to those of you that have one of those fancy ones that take care of everything for you.

Oh I almost forgot... My video camera is VHS and currently is broken..
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
527. MTWX
Quoting CycloneOz:


If you're going to have a connected laptop with you, Twitter is TOO EASY. Facebook and Twitter link, too. If your cell phone has internet...once again...Twitter is TOO EASY.

I'm kinda behind the times electronically too. People poke fun at me because I still use a 35mm camera. I have to get the laptop in working travel order (been using it as my home computer since my desktop was struck by lightning... go figure), and I am one of those people that a phone is a phone, no offense to those of you that have one of those fancy ones that take care of everything for you.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Hey Levi 32..what is the CFS current forecast for SST's, Surface Pressures, and Wind Shear for the upcoming hurricane season?
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Quoting MTWX:
Guess I probably should get up back up to speed with the "new" networking sites. (I have a Myspace, but no Facebook or Twitter)


If you're going to have a connected laptop with you, Twitter is TOO EASY. Facebook and Twitter link, too. If your cell phone has internet...once again...Twitter is TOO EASY.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3692
524. MTWX
Guess I probably should get up back up to speed with the "new" networking sites. (I have a Myspace, but no Facebook or Twitter)
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
523. MTWX
Quoting CycloneOz:

Sorry I don't... If I do go I will have plenty of images I will post on Wunderphotos
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting CycloneOz:


Wow...what a coincidence.

Let's just do 2004 all over again.

THE 'I' STORM LOOMS!


If Colin, Fiona, Igor and Julia all grease Florida this year I might cry LOL.
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The NHC probably won't name it, because they are just that way, but this is a subtropical storm no matter what history records will show.
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Quoting jeffs713:
I don't think the NHC will name it... but then again... who CAN name it?

Anyone know who named the 2004 storm "Catarina"?


I think the Brazilians and the NHC agreed to dub it that after the name of the state of Catarina that she made landfall at.
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Quoting jeffs713:

90L was a naming error. It is 90Q.

Can't use Alex, since it is on the North Atlantic list.

I think they should name it something like "Tropical Storm Why-is-this-here" and "Tropical Storm Nature-is-very-confused".


ALRIGHT! It's a NAME THAT STORM CONTEST!

Get your name in before they make it "official" and you get locked out!

My entry: Iara (meaning - water lady)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3692
I don't think the NHC will name it... but then again... who CAN name it?

Anyone know who named the 2004 storm "Catarina"?
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Ah good point Jeff.. thanks for the correction.

Any ideas for a name? Or if the NHC will even NAME this?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
90L is here.. but in the South Atlantic. They should name it Alex just because (that would smash my prediction of 5-23-10) its in the Atlantic or they should come up with a formal south Atlantic naming system

90L was a naming error. It is 90Q.

Can't use Alex, since it is on the North Atlantic list.

I think they should name it something like "Tropical Storm Why-is-this-here" and "Tropical Storm Nature-is-very-confused".
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Do you Tweet?...(so we can follow along if you go?)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3692
Quoting JRRP:
I see a lot of toasty water
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90L is here.. but in the South Atlantic. They should name it Alex just because (that would smash my prediction of 5-23-10) its in the Atlantic or they should come up with a formal south Atlantic naming system
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512. JRRP
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Quoting ElConando:


They also say in politics a word has a 1000 different meanings.


What does "is" mean again?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3692
Quoting MTWX:
Starting to look like I will be heading for the Little Rock area tomorrow morning, (That is if the wife will let me go..)


Tweet?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3692
509. MTWX
Starting to look like I will be heading for the Little Rock area tomorrow morning, (That is if the wife will let me go..)
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting ElConando:


They also say in politics a word has a 1000 different meanings.


Nope, you're wrong; politics has only ONE meaning: politics; n. codified immorality; institutionalized theft and falsehood

Any politician in here right now can try to convince me I'm wrong...

And with that, I'm out of here...LOL
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Quoting StormW:


And two wrongs don't make a right...but two Wrights make an airplane.

BBL


Lol

thats great

Later Storm!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting StormW:


Ya...I know, but they say a word is worth 1,000 pictures.


They also say in politics a word has a 1000 different meanings.
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Crazy that A S atl system could be forming!
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oops, meant 90S
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting StormW:


No.

StormW, you talk too much. A nice, simple answer would have been enough, but, noooo, you have to go on and on...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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