Record warmth in Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:52 PM GMT on March 08, 2010

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Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes were at their highest February level on record last month, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. The region between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America, is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)


Figure 1. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for March 7, 2010, as derived from the AMSR and AVHRR satellite data. Image credit: NOAA.

SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 85°W) were an eye-opening 1.02°C above average during February. This easily beats the previous record of 0.83°C set in 1998. SSTs in the Main Development Region are already warmer than they were during June of last year, which is pretty remarkable, considering February is usually the coldest month of the year for SSTs in the North Atlantic. The 1.02°C anomaly is the 6th highest monthly SST anomaly for the MDR on record. The only other months with higher anomalies all occurred during 2005 (April, May, June, July, and September 2005 had anomalies of 1.06°C - 1.23°C).

What is responsible for the high SSTs?
Don't blame El Niño for the high Atlantic SSTs. El Niño is a warming of the Pacific waters near the Equator, and has no direct impact on Atlantic SSTs. Instead, blame the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. They are some of the oldest known climate oscillations; seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High, the AO/NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen the most negative AO and NAO patterns since record keeping began in 1950, which caused a very cold winter in Florida and surrounding states. A negative AO/NAO implies a very weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region were 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average (Figure 2). Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean has heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter. This heating is superimposed on the very warm global SSTs we've been seeing over the past decade, leading to the current record warmth. Global and Northern Hemisphere SSTs were the 2nd warmest on record in both December and January.


Figure 2. Sea level pressure averaged for the period December 2009 - February 2010 (left) and the sea level pressure averaged for the period December - February from the long-term mean (1968 - 1998). This winter, the Azores-Bermuda High was about 3 - 4 mb weaker than in a typical winter, due to strongly negative AO/NAO conditions. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 3. Departure of surface wind speed from average for December 2009 - February 2010. Winds were about 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) lower than average over the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What does this imply for the coming hurricane season?
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach of the University of Colorado, February temperatures in the MDR are not strongly correlated with active hurricane seasons. The mathematical correlation between hurricane season Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and February SSTs is only 0.26, which is considered weak. Past hurricane seasons that had high February SST anomalies include 1998 (0.83°C anomaly), 2007 (0.71°C anomaly), and 1958 (0.68°C anomaly). These three years averaged 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, which is considerably higher than the average of 10, 6, and 2. The big question is, how long will the strong negative AO/NAO conditions keep the Azores-Bermuda High weak? Well, the AO has risen to near-neutral values over the past week, and the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model show that the AO and NAO will not be as strongly negative during March. This should allow the Azores-Bermuda High to strengthen some this month and increase the trade winds over the MDR. However, I still expect we'll set a record for warmest-ever March SSTs in the Main Development Region. Longer term, the crystal ball is very fuzzy, as our ability to predict the weather months in advance is poor. The long-range NOAA CFS model is predicting SSTs in the Atlantic MDR will be about 0.70°C above average during the peak months of hurricane season, making it one of the top five warmest years on record--but not as warm as the unbelievable Hurricane Season of 2005, which averaged 0.95°C above normal during August - October. The other big question is, when will El Niño fade? El Niño is currently holding steady at moderate intensity, and I expect that will continue through at least mid-April. It is possible El Niño will linger long enough into the year that it will create increased wind shear that will suppress this year's hurricane season.

Brazilian disturbance
An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Brazil, near 24S 36W, has changed little over the past two days. This disturbance still has a slight potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression by Wednesday, according to the latest runs of the ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS models. Satellite imagery shows little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 27°C, about 1°C above average, which is warm enough to support a tropical storm. The system is small, limiting its potential to become a tropical cyclone. I don't think it will become a subtropical depression.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters

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Quoting JeffMasters:
However, this law is very limited, since it knows nothing about large scale circulation changes that may accompany changes in SST. Climate models are increasingly pointing towards a future with higher wind shear in portions of the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, leading to fewer total hurricanes by 2100, but with the strongest storms getting stronger. The 11x increase in hurricanes predicted by Ehrlich seems highly improbable to me.

Jeff Masters


I would agree with that.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting JeffMasters:


I have an article linked on the tropical weather page about the 12 earliest major hurricanes to form, that lists all storms that formed before June 1:

May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

Jeff Masters

Awesome, Thanks so much Dr. Masters! Looks like the website I was looking at was correct, then!
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1 was the earliest TS to form in the pre-season months!
Thanks!
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ust curious to see how many WU bloggers have read and studied up on HARRP. I used to be a cynic and made fun of people wearing tin foil hats. I must say thought after reading as much as i did this weekend....I am concerned about what is taking place with their facilities. I am not saying that they are completely controlling hurricanes...but something very weird is going on there. Why would we want to heat up the ionosphere? I have been here a long time (2005) and hate to be cast as a freak all of a sudden...but this stuff is crazy.
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47. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Skyepony:
The part of the layman's press release..

A Frightening New Law of Hurricane Formation



However, this law is very limited, since it knows nothing about large scale circulation changes that may accompany changes in SST. Climate models are increasingly pointing towards a future with higher wind shear in portions of the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, leading to fewer total hurricanes by 2100, but with the strongest storms getting stronger. The 11x increase in hurricanes predicted by Ehrlich seems highly improbable to me.

Jeff Masters
Quoting CycloneOz:


2007 Hurricane Season

The first storm of the season, Subtropical Storm Andrea, formed out of a large extratropical cyclone off the coast of the United States on May 9, about 150 miles (240 km) northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida. Andrea was short-lived, dissipating on May 11. It was the first pre-season storm to develop since Tropical Storm Ana in April 2003 and the first Atlantic named storm in May since Tropical Storm Arlene in 1981. Six people drowned along the Southeast U.S. Coast, but property damage was minimal because the cyclone never made landfall.

2008 Hurricane Season


Tropical Storm Arthur formed near the Belize coast early on May 31,[9] developing out of the interaction between a tropical wave and the remnants of Tropical Storm Alma, and made landfall on Belize later that day.[9] The system traversed the Yucatán Peninsula slowly and dissipated inland early on June 2.[9] When Arthur made landfall on Belize it caused an estimated US$78 million worth of damage and killed 9 people, 5 of them directly.[9]

Arthur is the first reported tropical storm to form in May since Tropical Storm Arlene in 1981. Other systems have formed, but were subtropical (such as Andrea in 2007). Given Arthur's very short lifespan, Jeff Masters questions whether it would have been reported and named in the years prior to today's technology.[10] The formation of Arthur also marks the first time that a named storm formed in May for two consecutive years.

2009 Hurricane Season

The first official tropical cyclone of the 2009 Atlantic season formed out of a low pressure system off the coast of South Carolina on May 26. Slowly turning northeastward, the system steadily gained tropical characteristics, developing deep convection during this time. During the afternoon of May 28, the low had become sufficiently organized for the NHC to designate it as Tropical Depression One. Upon becoming a tropical depression, it marked the furthest north a tropical cyclone had developed during the month of May. Increasing wind shear eventually caused the depression to weaken, resulting in it degenerating into a remnant low pressure area on May 30. The remnants were absorbed by a warm front several hours later.[3]

Several hours after Tropical Depression One formed, satellites began monitoring a new low pressure system over the central-north Atlantic. Initially extratropical, the storm gradually became better organized as it tracked westward. Late on June 1, the cyclone had begun to acquire subtropical characteristics, and sustained winds reached 40 mph (65 km/h). The following day, the low attained an intensity with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 995 mbar (hPa; 29.38 inHg). Shortly thereafter, the system turned eastward and weakened. It eventually lost its hybrid characteristics on June 4 before losing its identity north of the Azores on June 5. Although the NHC classified the system as a non-tropical low, there was a possibility for the cyclone to be reclassified as a subtropical storm during post-season analysis; however, this did not occur.


Please note that the 2008 Hurricane Season entry mentions Dr. Masters. This post generated from Wiki.org
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The CFS model has El Nino fading by June and Neutral dominating thru the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Atleast thats my prediction ;)

Imagine if we have 4 straight seasons of pre-season tropical cyclones?


2007 Hurricane Season

The first storm of the season, Subtropical Storm Andrea, formed out of a large extratropical cyclone off the coast of the United States on May 9, about 150 miles (240 km) northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida. Andrea was short-lived, dissipating on May 11. It was the first pre-season storm to develop since Tropical Storm Ana in April 2003 and the first Atlantic named storm in May since Tropical Storm Arlene in 1981. Six people drowned along the Southeast U.S. Coast, but property damage was minimal because the cyclone never made landfall.

2008 Hurricane Season


Tropical Storm Arthur formed near the Belize coast early on May 31,[9] developing out of the interaction between a tropical wave and the remnants of Tropical Storm Alma, and made landfall on Belize later that day.[9] The system traversed the Yucatán Peninsula slowly and dissipated inland early on June 2.[9] When Arthur made landfall on Belize it caused an estimated US$78 million worth of damage and killed 9 people, 5 of them directly.[9]

Arthur is the first reported tropical storm to form in May since Tropical Storm Arlene in 1981. Other systems have formed, but were subtropical (such as Andrea in 2007). Given Arthur's very short lifespan, Jeff Masters questions whether it would have been reported and named in the years prior to today's technology.[10] The formation of Arthur also marks the first time that a named storm formed in May for two consecutive years.

2009 Hurricane Season

The first official tropical cyclone of the 2009 Atlantic season formed out of a low pressure system off the coast of South Carolina on May 26. Slowly turning northeastward, the system steadily gained tropical characteristics, developing deep convection during this time. During the afternoon of May 28, the low had become sufficiently organized for the NHC to designate it as Tropical Depression One. Upon becoming a tropical depression, it marked the furthest north a tropical cyclone had developed during the month of May. Increasing wind shear eventually caused the depression to weaken, resulting in it degenerating into a remnant low pressure area on May 30. The remnants were absorbed by a warm front several hours later.[3]

Several hours after Tropical Depression One formed, satellites began monitoring a new low pressure system over the central-north Atlantic. Initially extratropical, the storm gradually became better organized as it tracked westward. Late on June 1, the cyclone had begun to acquire subtropical characteristics, and sustained winds reached 40 mph (65 km/h). The following day, the low attained an intensity with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 995 mbar (hPa; 29.38 inHg). Shortly thereafter, the system turned eastward and weakened. It eventually lost its hybrid characteristics on June 4 before losing its identity north of the Azores on June 5. Although the NHC classified the system as a non-tropical low, there was a possibility for the cyclone to be reclassified as a subtropical storm during post-season analysis; however, this did not occur.
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43. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

I agree! should be an interesting year!

Does anyone know (with relative certainty) when the earliest Tropical Depresson, earliest Tropical Storm, and earliest hurricane formed in the Atlantic in a Hurricane Season? I have been finding conflicting results...


I have an article linked on the tropical weather page about the 12 earliest major hurricanes to form, that lists all storms that formed before June 1:

May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

Jeff Masters
Quoting Skyepony:
The part of the layman's press release..

A Frightening New Law of Hurricane Formation


Uh...wow. I see some problems already. Try telling Filipinos that it was a slow year for Pacific storms. This strange year of weather throws off his model. It's been such a strange year, that using this year's "data points" to serve as a basis to model future years would likely show a climate out of control!

Second thing about this article... 11-fold? Isn't that 11 percent? So an increase in 1 storm per year if there are 11?

Bah....humbug. No offense, but just more GW nonsense, imo.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


I know how he feels.

It's really weird, being that it's a mini-van and guys my age don't want to be seen driving one, but...just try and take it away from me.

I'm serious! I'll hang onto that van until the end of time (for me, anyway.)


LOL yeah, im just gonna fix my car, and try to do what I can with it, I still need to get a camera and I saw that verizon has prepay internet that I can get for the spring and summer
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting CycloneOz:


Atleast thats my prediction ;)

Imagine if we have 4 straight seasons of pre-season tropical cyclones?
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Quoting tornadodude:


he wants it :p


I know how he feels.

It's really weird, being that it's a mini-van and guys my age don't want to be seen driving one, but...just try and take it away from me.

I'm serious! I'll hang onto that van until the end of time (for me, anyway.)
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Quoting CycloneOz:

Hahaha-- oh boy!
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35. Skyepony (Mod)
The part of the layman's press release..

A Frightening New Law of Hurricane Formation

Monday, February 22, 2010
A Frightening New Law of Hurricane Formation
A new mathematical model of hurricane formation finally solves one of the outstanding puzzles of climate change but also predicts dramatic increases in the number of storms as the world warms

Ehrlich's approach is a to create an elegant mathematical model of the system that relies on only two variables: the temperature of the sea above a threshold of 25.5 degrees C and the latitude of the ocean at that point.

He then fits the function to the data from real hurricanes ie sea surface temperatures and latitude data from satellite images from 1960 until 2007. This determines that the power law has an exponent of 3.5 for most parts of the globe.

Fitting the data to a curve by no means proves that a model is correct but Ehrlich is able to make some interesting observations using it. One problem that climatologists have puzzled over in recent years is that the number of hurricanes have increased in the north Atlantic but not in the Pacific, despite similar temperature increases. Many say that this is proof that other factors must influence hurricane formation.

However, there's an important difference between these regions: in the Atlantic, the water tends to be cooler to start with and the hurricanes tend to form at a slightly higher latitude.

When you take this into account, the difference in the number of hurricanes is exactly what Ehrlich's model predicts. He says the specific form of his mathematical model "yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures".

That could help to solve an important climate change puzzle but before greater reliance can be placed on Ehrlich's, it needs to show its colours by accurately forecasting the numbers of hurricanes in the next few years. Its predictions do not make for pleasant reading.

The exponent of 3.5 in Ehrlich's power law means that numbers of hurricanes should increase sharply as the world warms and much more dramatically than climatologists have been expecting. His prediction is that a 2 degree C increase in average temperature will lead to an 11-fold increase in the number of hurricanes.

And the increase in numbers of hurricanes is only part of the story, he says. "An eleven-fold increase in hurricanes at a particular location would just be one part of the story, which would include (1) a potentially larger increase in the total number of hurricanes given the increase in the size of the basin as temperatures rise, (2) an increase in the destructive potential of each hurricane, and (3) an increase in the height of the storm surge due to rising sea levels that would invariably occur in a warmer world."
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33. Skyepony (Mod)
Excellent blog entry..

Wanted to share an abstract & details. It's only been recently submitted, not published. Written by this guy..well published physics professor.

A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function
Authors: Robert Ehrlich
(Submitted on 17 Feb 2010)

Abstract: Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.

Comments: In press with "Advances in Meteorology"
Subjects: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph); Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)
Cite as: arXiv:1002.3291v1 [physics.ao-ph]
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Quoting Levi32:


Earliest tropical cyclone in existence was the earliest you can get, midnight January 1st......if you count Zeta in 2005 ;)

I'm not the greatest at history but if memory serves me the earliest tropical storm ever in the Atlantic was in March, but I don't think any have formed in January or February. I could be wrong.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Formed February 2, 1952
Dissipated February 3, 1952
Highest
winds
50 mph (85 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg)

I think Zeta would be considered the "latest" in a hurricane year since it associated with the year before it :-) MAN that was a whopper of a year!


I have the earliest TS as Jan 18, 1978. I think their data might be wrong.

I have found the earliest hurricane that formed March 6th, 1908. So looks like we can't beat the "earliest hurricane to form" record (or the earliest TS or TD to form). All well!
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The sun rises.....

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting StormChaser81:


Formed February 2, 1952
Dissipated February 3, 1952
Highest
winds
50 mph (85 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg)


Ok yeah you got it. Knew I was forgetting one storm.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

I agree! should be an interesting year!

Does anyone know (with relative certainty) when the earliest Tropical Depresson, earliest Tropical Storm, and earliest hurricane formed in the Atlantic in a Hurricane Season? I have been finding conflicting results...


Formed February 2, 1952
Dissipated February 3, 1952
Highest
winds
50 mph (85 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

I agree! should be an interesting year!

Does anyone know (with relative certainty) when the earliest Tropical Depresson, earliest Tropical Storm, and earliest hurricane formed in the Atlantic in a Hurricane Season? I have been finding conflicting results...


Earliest tropical cyclone in existence was the earliest you can get, midnight January 1st......if you count Zeta in 2005 ;)

I'm not the greatest at history but if memory serves me the earliest tropical storm ever in the Atlantic was in March, but I don't think any have formed in January or February. I could be wrong.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting CycloneOz:
If...

El Nino backs off to near neutral by May,

and

The Azores-Bermuda High strengthens by May,

and

MDR SSTs remain high...

then

I predict we will have our first named storm before June 1st, 2010.

I agree! should be an interesting year!

Does anyone know (with relative certainty) when the earliest Tropical Depresson, earliest Tropical Storm, and earliest hurricane formed in the Atlantic in a Hurricane Season? I have been finding conflicting results...
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Quoting CycloneOz:
If...

El Nino backs off to near neutral by May,

and

The Azores-Bermuda High strengthens by May,

and

MDR SSTs remain high...

then

I predict we will have our first named storm before June 1st, 2010.


That's why weather is so amazing, anything can happen.
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More strange weather in Southern Europe (snow storm is now reaching the beaches of Spain and tomorrow Italy)

Report: Heavy snow in southern France has stranded hundreds of cars and made road travel impossible for trucks and buses. The airport at Nîmes has been closed. In some parts of the Rhone valley, up to 40 centimetres of snow has fallen. Meteorologists say this is extremely rare for March.

Further east, the Greek capital Athens has been hit by a dust storm. A layer of red sand carried all the way across the Mediterranean Sea from the Sahara now lies over the city. Ferry services from the city have been halted and the three-kilometre-long bridge connecting western Greece with the Peloponnesian peninsula has been closed due to high winds.


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Quoting CycloneOz:


:p

What about the Venture? Is dad gonna hang onto it?


he wants it :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We're now 84 days away from the season..
Any takers on when Alex will form?

I say May 23rd. Seems these SST's are so abnormally high a system in the Caribbean seems possible, a possible Barry type situation.


That sounds about right to me.
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Current Conditions

Homer, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 30 min 57 sec ago

23 °F
Snow Freezing Fog
Windchill: 10 °F
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the NE

Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 28.61 in (Falling)
Visibility: 0.5 miles
Elevation: 82 ft
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
We're now 84 days away from the season..
Any takers on when Alex will form?

I say May 23rd. Seems these SST's are so abnormally high a system in the Caribbean seems possible, a possible Barry type situation.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


THAT WILL BE A FIRST FOR THIS WINTER!

Dang things have run right on down the US west coast all season long.

This one's gonna hang up there around the artic circle?

Hmmmmm......

/me breaks out the popcorn to watch El Nino die!!!


It's quite a dance really......southeast gets cold and snowy winter....we get extremely warm winter in Alaska. Southeast gets a week of spring....Alaska gets pummeled with frigid air and snow because winter needs someone else to beat up. It's all the AO's fault.

It's also a correlation that happens a lot though simply based on our longitude. A trough positioned over the eastern U.S. generally means a ridge is over Alaska or western Canada, or vice versa.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting tornadodude:


my spring break is next week ha

but my car is still in the shop :p


:p

What about the Venture? Is dad gonna hang onto it?
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Quoting Levi32:


That's the thing....I see nothing in the lower 48 on the 15th lol. My storm isn't really traveling downstream anymore. The upper piece is going to be rotating around in the arctic for a good while.







THAT WILL BE A FIRST FOR THIS WINTER!

Dang things have run right on down the US west coast all season long.

This one's gonna hang up there around the artic circle?

Hmmmmm......

/me breaks out the popcorn to watch El Nino die!!!
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If...

El Nino backs off to near neutral by May,

and

The Azores-Bermuda High strengthens by May,

and

MDR SSTs remain high...

then

I predict we will have our first named storm before June 1st, 2010.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Any plans for skipping school next week?

When's your spring break?


my spring break is next week ha

but my car is still in the shop :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting CycloneOz:


I was talking about the low that's clobbering your part of the world today.


That's the thing....I see nothing in the lower 48 on the 15th lol. My storm isn't really traveling downstream anymore. The upper piece is going to be rotating around in the arctic for a good while. I'm not sure what you're looking at.





Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Thank You Dr. Excellent analysis as usual.........Hopefully the A/B High will strengthen between now and the Summer and keep the "fuel" a little cooler for the pending Cape Verde season.
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Quoting tornadodude:
its a start right?


Any plans for skipping school next week?

When's your spring break?
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Quoting Levi32:


14th and 15th? I thought it was 10th and 11th. The piece currently moving into Washington State is the piece that will be winding up a severe weather outbreak over the south in 48 hours.







I was talking about the low that's clobbering your part of the world today.
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Quoting Levi32:
Thanks Dr. Masters!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It's getting too dangerous to venture outside now here. The blizzard warning doesn't go into effect for another 10 hours and it's already near-zero visibility with 50mph wind gusts and heavy snow.

From my Facebook Forecast:

Round 2 has begun. Dangerous blizzard conditions will exist at times today, worsening and becoming continuous tonight. 3-5 inches of snow is expected to fall today, with another 4-6 inches overnight tonight. Very strong winds will limit visibilities to near zero at times, as well as creating a nasty wind chill. This storm is dangerous to be outside in, especially tonight.

your gonna get pounded for a while
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
Take car Levi32 looks dangerous out there. The Iditarod starts today looks like they are missing the worst of it for now.
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Quoting CycloneOz:



This could be the storm that kicks off the 2010 Tornado Season in the CONUS.

We'll see, but temps down south are supposed to rise. This storm will have much cold air associated with it.

Sunday 3/14 - Monday 3/15? Tornado outbreak?


14th and 15th? I thought it was 10th and 11th. The piece currently moving into Washington State is the piece that will be winding up a severe weather outbreak over the south in 48 hours.





Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting Levi32:
Thanks Dr. Masters!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It's getting too dangerous to venture outside now here. The blizzard warning doesn't go into effect for another 10 hours and it's already near-zero visibility with 50mph wind gusts and heavy snow.

From my Facebook Forecast:

Round 2 has begun. Dangerous blizzard conditions will exist at times today, worsening and becoming continuous tonight. 3-5 inches of snow is expected to fall today, with another 4-6 inches overnight tonight. Very strong winds will limit visibilities to near zero at times, as well as creating a nasty wind chill. This storm is dangerous to be outside in, especially tonight.




This could be the storm that kicks off the 2010 Tornado Season in the CONUS.

We'll see, but temps down south are supposed to rise. This storm will have much cold air associated with it.

Sunday 3/14 - Monday 3/15? Tornado outbreak?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Thanks Dr. Masters!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It's getting too dangerous to venture outside now here. The blizzard warning doesn't go into effect for another 10 hours and it's already near-zero visibility with 50mph wind gusts and heavy snow.

From my Facebook Forecast:

Round 2 has begun. Dangerous blizzard conditions will exist at times today, worsening and becoming continuous tonight. 3-5 inches of snow is expected to fall today, with another 4-6 inches overnight tonight. Very strong winds will limit visibilities to near zero at times, as well as creating a nasty wind chill. This storm is dangerous to be outside in, especially tonight.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
From my hazardous weather outlook:

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
FOG MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...LIGHTNING IS A
THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.



its a start right?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
thanks!


good morning all
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
As promised thanks for putting this together...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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