Record warmth in Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:52 PM GMT on March 08, 2010

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Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes were at their highest February level on record last month, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. The region between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America, is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)


Figure 1. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for March 7, 2010, as derived from the AMSR and AVHRR satellite data. Image credit: NOAA.

SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 85°W) were an eye-opening 1.02°C above average during February. This easily beats the previous record of 0.83°C set in 1998. SSTs in the Main Development Region are already warmer than they were during June of last year, which is pretty remarkable, considering February is usually the coldest month of the year for SSTs in the North Atlantic. The 1.02°C anomaly is the 6th highest monthly SST anomaly for the MDR on record. The only other months with higher anomalies all occurred during 2005 (April, May, June, July, and September 2005 had anomalies of 1.06°C - 1.23°C).

What is responsible for the high SSTs?
Don't blame El Niño for the high Atlantic SSTs. El Niño is a warming of the Pacific waters near the Equator, and has no direct impact on Atlantic SSTs. Instead, blame the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. They are some of the oldest known climate oscillations; seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High, the AO/NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen the most negative AO and NAO patterns since record keeping began in 1950, which caused a very cold winter in Florida and surrounding states. A negative AO/NAO implies a very weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region were 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average (Figure 2). Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean has heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter. This heating is superimposed on the very warm global SSTs we've been seeing over the past decade, leading to the current record warmth. Global and Northern Hemisphere SSTs were the 2nd warmest on record in both December and January.


Figure 2. Sea level pressure averaged for the period December 2009 - February 2010 (left) and the sea level pressure averaged for the period December - February from the long-term mean (1968 - 1998). This winter, the Azores-Bermuda High was about 3 - 4 mb weaker than in a typical winter, due to strongly negative AO/NAO conditions. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 3. Departure of surface wind speed from average for December 2009 - February 2010. Winds were about 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) lower than average over the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What does this imply for the coming hurricane season?
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach of the University of Colorado, February temperatures in the MDR are not strongly correlated with active hurricane seasons. The mathematical correlation between hurricane season Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and February SSTs is only 0.26, which is considered weak. Past hurricane seasons that had high February SST anomalies include 1998 (0.83°C anomaly), 2007 (0.71°C anomaly), and 1958 (0.68°C anomaly). These three years averaged 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, which is considerably higher than the average of 10, 6, and 2. The big question is, how long will the strong negative AO/NAO conditions keep the Azores-Bermuda High weak? Well, the AO has risen to near-neutral values over the past week, and the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model show that the AO and NAO will not be as strongly negative during March. This should allow the Azores-Bermuda High to strengthen some this month and increase the trade winds over the MDR. However, I still expect we'll set a record for warmest-ever March SSTs in the Main Development Region. Longer term, the crystal ball is very fuzzy, as our ability to predict the weather months in advance is poor. The long-range NOAA CFS model is predicting SSTs in the Atlantic MDR will be about 0.70°C above average during the peak months of hurricane season, making it one of the top five warmest years on record--but not as warm as the unbelievable Hurricane Season of 2005, which averaged 0.95°C above normal during August - October. The other big question is, when will El Niño fade? El Niño is currently holding steady at moderate intensity, and I expect that will continue through at least mid-April. It is possible El Niño will linger long enough into the year that it will create increased wind shear that will suppress this year's hurricane season.

Brazilian disturbance
An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Brazil, near 24S 36W, has changed little over the past two days. This disturbance still has a slight potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression by Wednesday, according to the latest runs of the ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS models. Satellite imagery shows little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 27°C, about 1°C above average, which is warm enough to support a tropical storm. The system is small, limiting its potential to become a tropical cyclone. I don't think it will become a subtropical depression.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters

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Quoting PcolaDan:


HAHAHAHA Read that last line out loud to yourself. :) Isn't that the formula for rain. heehee

The real limiter is the surface temps. When the temp at the surface is less than above, it takes a bunch of lift to get things going and they usually don't turn out to be much.

For example, Dallas about 90 minutes ago. 58 F at the surface, no CAPE to speak of, and a rather large and fairly deep inversion at low levels.


(click for full size)


Cheering for warm temps? That is exactly what this system is lacking in severe potential.

(Here comes Beell to check me...the severe dynamics expert...this is not a jab)
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Quoting MTWX:

Just read the comments further back in this blog. Or to give you the short version, all the ingredients are there for a heafty outbreak come wednesday. The only thing that is up in the air right now is the amount of moisture the system will be able to bring in from the gulf


HAHAHAHA Read that last line out loud to yourself. :) Isn't that the formula for rain. heehee
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Reports of storm damage still coming in

Photo of tennis ball size hail from Saturdays storm in Melbourne, Victoria

Flooding in Shepperton,Victoria


The State Emergency Service (SES) says it will take until Friday to complete work on securing buildings and cleaning up damage caused by hail and heavy rain over the long weekend.

The SES received more than 7,000 calls for help from across the state.

The Melbourne suburbs of Knox and Malvern appear to be hardest hit.

There has been significant damage to more than 100 houses, flats, businesses and nursing homes, as well as Docklands Stadium and the Southern Cross Station.

The SES state duty officer, Justin Kibell says there are about 1,700 jobs still on the books.

He says the majority of the work has to do with damaged roof tiles and ceilings.

"A number of properties have got issues with possibility of rain entering through their roof. So we're up tarping the roofs and also just assisting with trees that might have been damaged and fallen on to properties as well," he said.

As of yesterday there had been over 40,000 insurance claims for damage from the storm.

Craig Lapsley, the director of emergency services for the Department of Human Services says people who have been forced from their homes are eligible for a grant of $1067 through their local council.

"So far we've got listed 27 [families who] have left their homes due to the fact that they are inundated and we believe that may increase today," he said.

"Others are finding a small hole in a roof has allowed water in that in the first 24 hours has been absorbed in the ceiling and as the weekend has progressed that those ceilings have deteriorated and started to fall through."

He said more and more people were returning home from the long weekend to find their homes have been damaged.

He said they had a number of calls last night from residents in the Knox area, and he expects the number of people seeking help will continue to rise during the day.

Greater Shepparton City Council Mayor Geoff Dobson says the storms were the worst in living memory.

Councillor Dobson says he witnessed a trail of destruction along walking tracks and the Goulburn River.

He says it is lucky no one was killed or injured in the wild weather.

"There doesn't seem to be one tree in the river area that hasn't been affected," he said.

"How lucky are we that no one has been injured or killed in the storm it was the severe as we've ever seen in living history in Shepparton."

- ABC
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Aren't those late afternoon TS and Tornado Warnings interesting?

Those radar maps from today sure looked pretty active...active enough to at least garner a TS warning area much earlier today.

The tornado was a surprise!

Wow...the horns are sounding!

Play ball!
over the next two weeks things should kick in full swing as spring begins and the march towards summer season gets under way and with it warmer weather
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53835
man wish we could have some warm rain now
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146. Skyepony (Mod)
SWFLgazer ~ Paul Ehrlich didn't write that paper.. Robert Ehrlich did. Check the resume I linked earlier..

nrtiwlnvragn ~ thanks for digging up the whole thing. Guess I was a little unfair with the 110 a season thing since only the areas that were above 2C more than average would make at that multitude. Still think it lacks a measure for expending latent heat.
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Aren't those late afternoon TS and Tornado Warnings interesting?

Those radar maps from today sure looked pretty active...active enough to at least garner a TS warning area much earlier today.

The tornado was a surprise!

Wow...the horns are sounding!

Play ball!
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Rime ice (the result of freezing fog) as per a couple of months ago in this blog.



Note the crowbar...not soft and fluffy, not at all.
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Quoting Skepticall:


Looks kind of cool freezing fog just seems to be hilarious if fog isn't enough we'll freeze it.


Lol well it's just complete white-out here and the fog isn't helping. It shows how moisture-laden this airmass is.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
142. MTWX
Quoting Skepticall:


Looks kind of cool freezing fog just seems to be hilarious if fog isn't enough we'll freeze it.

freezing fog is horrible. Personally I think it is worse than freezing rain. The ice accumulation occurs much faster than with the freezing rain.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
CAPE 48 and 72 hours out get a little more capable of producing severe wx.



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Quoting Jeff9641:
Tornado on the ground in Elk City, OK. Get ready because things will get worse Wed and Thurs. Dozens of tornadoes possible the next several days.

NAM wants a CAPE maximum of 1500+ centered about Alexandria, LA tomorrow. Not horrible, but will produce *something* to look for.



Sounding forecast:



Hodograph shows some, but not a lot, of shear.

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Current Conditions

Homer, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 27 min 17 sec ago

27 °F
Heavy Snow Freezing Fog
Windchill: 27 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 25 °F
Wind: Calm

Pressure: 28.57 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.2 miles
Elevation: 82 ft
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
135. MTWX
Quoting flsky:

Please give us some evidence why you think this is so.

Just read the comments further back in this blog. Or to give you the short version, all the ingredients are there for a heafty outbreak come wednesday. The only thing that is up in the air right now is the amount of moisture the system will be able to bring in from the gulf
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages
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Current Convective Outlooks
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132. flsky
Quoting Jeff9641:
Tornado on the ground in Elk City, OK. Get ready because things will get worse Wed and Thurs. Dozens of tornadoes possible the next several days.

Please give us some evidence why you think this is so.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Tornado on the ground in Elk City, OK. Get ready because things will get worse Wed and Thurs. Dozens of tornadoes possible the next several days.

Keeper, ya beat me.
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130. MTWX
Quoting P451:


That's cause... it is Spring. 60.1 today in NJ. 54 right now. Just got in from BS'ing with some neighbors.

Winter is OVER.


I wouldn't go and say that yet... The Blizzard in Alaska might hear ya. ;)
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
754
WUUS54 KOUN 090023
SVROUN
OKC043-090115-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0006.100309T0023Z-100309T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CST MON MAR 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST

* AT 623 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TALOGA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HUCMAC...NORTHWESTERN CANTON LAKE
AND TALOGA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

&&

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53835

852
WWUS54 KOUN 090019
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CST MON MAR 8 2010

OKC129-090026-
/O.CAN.KOUN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100309T0030Z/
ROGER MILLS OK-
619 PM CST MON MAR 8 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EASTERN ROGER MILLS
COUNTY...

LAT...LON 3582 9922 3581 9921 3571 9910 3567 9927
3570 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 241DEG 23KT 3572 9921

$$

OKC039-090030-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100309T0030Z/
CUSTER OK-
619 PM CST MON MAR 8 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY...

AT 616 PM CST...RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SEVERE STORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMMON. STORM
SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA ALSO CONTINUE TO OBSERVE A FUNNEL CLOUD.
THIS STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO EARLIER AS IT MOVED THROUGH HAMMON AND
ANOTHER TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE. PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF
CUSTER COUNTY SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS.

* THE TORNADO WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN RURAL AREAS OF CUSTER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 9922 3581 9921 3571 9910 3567 9927
3570 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 241DEG 23KT 3572 9921

$$



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53835
Historic United States Earthquakes
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A couple of these on the right track would take care of the fire warnings in these areas, but other problems would arise...

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122. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting Levi32:


There's this like new trans-continental fault that we have to worry about in the United States now. I heard it runs through the center of the country, but I haven't researched it.


Fault number 1031a, Meers fault, northwestern section.
General: Fault originally mapped in about the late 1930's, and scarp was considered to be an erosionally exhumed fault-line scarp. The scarp, formed on late Quaternary deposits, was first recognized by M. Charles Gilbert in the early 1980's during field studies of the igneous rocks exposed in the nearby Wichita Mountains (Gilbert, 1983 #671; 1983 #672). Paleoseismic studies of the fault indicate a temporal clustering of events in the late Quaternary. These studies have established the occurrence of two well-dated, late Holocene events, and a preceding event that occurred middle Pleistocene time or earlier.

Sections: This fault has 2 sections. The two sections described here are based on the distinctly different surficial expression of the fault along each section. A conspicuous, continuous Holocene scarp is present along a 26-km-long section of the fault, but low-sun angle photography suggests that the Holocene rupture along this section may be as much as 37 km long (Ramelli and others, 1987 #668; Ramelli and Slemmons, 1990 #665). This 26- or possibly 37-km-long section is considered as section "b" in this compilation. A poorly studied section is located northwest of section "b", and is referred to as section "a" in this compilation. Knowledge and information on this northwesterly section is based solely on work by Cetin (1990 #658; 1992 #674). The actual length and details of the subsurface extent of the Meers fault are not well known, but subsurface (Harlton, 1951 #670; 1963 #667) and magnetic (Jones-Cecil and Crone, 1989 #663; Jones-Cecil, in press #673) data show that the fault extends for tens of kilometers to the northwest and southeast of the Quaternary scarp (section b). Other sections of the fault may exist at depth that are not expressed in Quaternary deposits.
COMANCHE COUNTY COUNTY, OKLAHOMA
KIOWA COUNTY COUNTY, OKLAHOMA
This section is 18 km of a total fault length of 54 km.
Slip-rate category: Less than 0.2 mm/yr

Fault number 1031b, Meers fault, southeastern section.
General: Fault originally mapped in about the late 1930's, and scarp was considered to be an erosionally exhumed fault-line scarp. The scarp, formed on late Quaternary deposits, was first recognized by M. Charles Gilbert in the early 1980's during field studies of the igneous rocks exposed in the nearby Wichita Mountains (Gilbert, 1983 #671; 1983 #672). Paleoseismic studies of the fault indicate a temporal clustering of events in the late Quaternary. These studies have established the occurrence of two well-dated, late Holocene events, and a preceding event that occurred middle Pleistocene time or earlier.

Sections: This fault has 2 sections. The two sections described here are based on the distinctly different surficial expression of the fault along each section. A conspicuous, continuous Holocene scarp is present along a 26-km-long section of the fault, but low-sun angle photography suggests that the Holocene rupture along this section may be as much as 37 km long (Ramelli and others, 1987 #668; Ramelli and Slemmons, 1990 #665). This 26- or possibly 37-km-long section is considered as section "b" in this compilation. A poorly studied section is located northwest of section "b", and is referred to as section "a" in this compilation. Knowledge and information on this northwesterly section is based solely on work by Cetin (1990 #658; 1992 #674). The actual length and details of the subsurface extent of the Meers fault are not well known, but subsurface (Harlton, 1951 #670; 1963 #667) and magnetic (Jones-Cecil and Crone, 1989 #663; Jones-Cecil, in press #673) data show that the fault extends for tens of kilometers to the northwest and southeast of the Quaternary scarp (section b). Other sections of the fault may exist at depth that are not expressed in Quaternary deposits.
COMANCHE COUNTY COUNTY, OKLAHOMA
This section is 35 km of a total fault length of 54 km.
Slip-rate category: Less than 0.2 mm/yr

Earthquakes everywhere occur on faults within bedrock, usually miles deep. Most of the region's bedrock was formed as several generations of mountains rose and were eroded down again over the last billion or so years.

At well-studied plate boundaries like the San Andreas fault system in California, often scientists can determine the name of the specific fault that is responsible for an earthquake. In contrast, east of the Rocky Mountains this is rarely the case. All parts of this vast region are far from the nearest plate boundaries, which, for the U.S., are to the east in the center of the Atlantic Ocean, to the south in the Caribbean Sea, and to the west in California and offshore from Washington and Oregon. The region is laced with known faults but numerous smaller or deeply buried faults remain undetected. Even most of the known faults are poorly located at earthquake depths. Accordingly, few earthquakes east of the Rockies can be linked to named faults. It is difficult to determine if a known fault is still active and could slip and cause an earthquake. In most areas east of the Rockies, the best guide to earthquake hazards is the earthquakes themselves.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I heard parts of Oklahoma is notorious for oil and gas wells up there, like TX

Certainly. The first productive oil wells in Ok came before the big Spindletop in SE Texas. Been doing it there longer...

http://www.ogs.ou.edu/oilgasmilestones.php
http://mykindred.com/wiess/st-o-b/18-Spindletop.html

But I think they really do have minor quakes from time to time. Fault lines everywhere. One runs right through parts of Baton Rouge, too.
(Imagining a quake there after a good rain. It would probably sound like "splash, slurp, splat", more than "rumble", to use my onomatopoeias.)
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I heard parts of Oklahoma is notorious for oil and gas wells up there, like TX
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Why in the hell is there always a earthquake in Oklahoma, every time I look at a earthquake map there's always something there...


There's this like new trans-continental fault that we have to worry about in the United States now. I heard it runs through the center of the country, but I haven't researched it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
must be a gas well hitting air pockets
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Why in the hell is there always a earthquake in Oklahoma, every time I look at a earthquake map there's always something there...
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Morning all. How is everyone. I hope everyone is getting ready for a possible early start to the hurricane season if the MDR doesn't cool down a bit.
The thunderstorm that hit Melbourne on Saturday afternoon is being called a once in a century weather event. Estimated damage bill so far, AU$1billion. It will come very close to the 1999 Sydney hail storm that only effected a small part of Sydney but cause AU$1.5billion in damage. There is still a few cars driving around with hail damage from that storm.

The Sydney Hailstorm - 14 April 1999

An intense, long-lived thunderstorm, moved over Sydney's eastern and city suburbs during the evening hours producing a large swathe of enormous hailstones. The largest measured hailstone had dimensions of 9x8x8cm, although evidence suggests that larger stones fell in the more severely-damaged areas. This hailstorm was of a magnitude seldom seen in Australia, or the world. It stands as Australia's most costly natural disaster (in dollar terms) to date, with insurance claims expected to exceed $1.5 billion dollars!


Radar loop of the Sydney Hailstorm. Images are at 20 min intervals from 6:50 - 8:10pm


Selection of hailstones that fell in Surry Hills at around 8:00pm on the evening of 14 April 1999. The hailstone below the cricket ball measures 9x8x8cm

The main damage path extended from Bundeena in the south to Darling Point in the North and from Sydenham in the west to Bondi Junction in the east. In the worst hit suburbs of Kensington and Eastlakes, there were many streets with damage to every home. In total, over 20,000 properties and 40,000 vehicles were damaged during the storm with more than 25 aircraft damaged at Sydney Airport.

REPORT BY THE DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY ON
THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY'S FORECASTING
AND WARNING PERFORMANCE FOR THE
SYDNEY HAILSTORM OF 14 APRIL 1999
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really nice day in southern ontario temps up to a high of 58.5 f today cooling a little with rain coming end of week but overall nice spring trend will it last or pass remains to be seen
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53835
Quoting RitaEvac:
If earthquakes start becoming more frequent and deadly, I might start wondering what the hell is going on. January was Haiti, February was Chile, March so far is Turkey, with other numerous unreported quakes around the world that doesnt cause damage or deaths.

We are pretty capable of measuring quakes just about anywhere. Very sensitive equipment is also capable of measure a decent shake from very far away, at that.

Seismic monitoring listed by geographic region: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/station_book/REGION.html

Not at all like trying to collect global tornado data, for example, based on damage reports.
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111. xcool
South Central U.S. Weather
March 2010
4th-7th. Stormy Southern Rockies through Louisiana. 8th-11th. Fair. 12th-15th. Scattered showers Texas east, then fair. Gusty winds, showers Southern Plains. 16th-19th. Fair, then stormy into Southern Plains. 20th-23rd. Cold Southern Rockies, Southern Plains. Heavy rain Texas east, then fair. 24th-27th. Fair, then unsettled, showers over Southern Rockies east. 28th-31st. Pleasant spring weather, becoming stormy Southern Rockies.

April 2010
1st-3rd. Strong thunderstorms, tornadoes. 4th-7th. Fair, pleasant. 8th-11th. Showers across Southern Plains, then fair. Windy, showery New Mexico, then pleasant. Scattered showers Louisiana. 12th-15th. Fair, then squally Southern Rockies. Cloudy Southern Plains. 16th-19th. Clearing skies. 20th-23rd. Showers Southern Rockies, Southern Plains. Unsettled Texas. 24th-27th. Fair. 28th-30th. Gusty winds, showery Southern Plains. Stormy Texas, Arkansas.

May 2010
1st-3rd. Fair, quite cool


by http://www.farmersalmanac.com/
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting CycloneOz:
From WU.com:

Winter weather, flood, high-wind, and fire alerts. Interesting that there are no severe thunderstorm alerts associated with that big low a-spinnin'! Thunderstorms would be "yellow" colored. Tornadoes would be "red."



That's because this system doesn't really have a true warm sector, hence all the rain but little severe weather.
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Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV)



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From WU.com:

Winter weather, flood, high-wind, dense fog, and fire alerts. Interesting that there are no severe thunderstorm alerts associated with that big low a-spinnin'! Thunderstorms would be "yellow" colored. Tornadoes would be "red."

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Quoting StormChaser81:


What are we looking at?


look like a wave to me
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Your loop dramatically shows that there is no convergence line associated with that big low sweeping across the mid-west.

Just severe thunderstorms. I would imagine the hail could be pretty bad as it moves along...

Tornadoes? Nada...so far!
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101. xcool




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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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