Little change to Brazilian tropical disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on March 06, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Brazil, near 17S 38W, has changed little over the past day. It has a slight potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression early next week. Satellite winds estimates from the WindSat instrument show an elongated area of converging winds, but no organized surface circulation. Satellite loops show little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 28°C, about 1°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. The system is small, and this will limit its potential to become a tropical cyclone.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the Brazilian disturbance.

The ECMWF, UKMET, and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of development a fair amount in recent runs. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University show that this storm has less of a warm core than before, meaning it would probably be classifiable as a subtropical storm if it gets more organized and achieves surface wind speeds of at least 39 mph. The system does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to the Brazilian coast. I give this storm a low (< 30% chance) of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Monday. The storm should move to the south or southeast away from the coast. Only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones have formed in the South Atlantic. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms).

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
Portlight and the Liberty Schooner are sponsoring "The Haitian Food Voyage," shipping 10,000 pounds of rice to Haiti. Thanks to your generous donations, the mission is set to sail to Haiti during the second week of April. Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. R.Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, assists a woman who has just received a new walker from Portlight. The woman was injured when a 3-story building collapsed on her during the January earthquake.

Jeff Masters

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Good afternoon to everyone. Things are quiet weatherwise for the lower 48, except for the blizzard in Alaska.

I am here in Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX, where the temperatures have finally returned to normal. Right now we're about 71F, Pt Sunny, and breezy! Beats the temps in the 20's, 30's and 40's we had the majority of Feb 2010.
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Even thought it's been sunny with mid'30's to 40's for several days here in SW Mich., we still have close to a foot of snow and the lake is completely frozen over. However, rain is predicted, so the melt will speed up significantly. I always hate to see the snow go. I sure do like winter.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any cool down should be brief i doubt we get any sub zero artic air now and if we do hopefully won't last long sun getting strong now just outside and its real warm in the direct sun its giving good heat now the ground is already soft here
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GFS at 240 hours has a 1037mb Azores High.

Link
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, the storm track looks like it may lighten up on the far eastern Atlantic over the next couple weeks. That wouldn't explain the cooling of the SSTs that has already occurred during the last 5 days though. Atmo may be right that it's a satellite thing, but who knows.

Don't ever say "Atmo may be right" There will be no living with him on this blog if he is right. Only kidding people, he may be right on this one. Unusual to see a continuous cooling trend this late (or early) in the season.
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Quoting hurricane23:
As far as the sea surface temps cooling a bit across the eastern atlantic we'll some esemble members from the GFS seem to finally develop something close to a proper Azores high which has been missing in a big way this winter.


Yeah, the storm track looks like it may lighten up on the far eastern Atlantic over the next couple weeks. That wouldn't explain the cooling of the SSTs that has already occurred during the last 5 days though. Atmo may be right that it's a satellite thing, but who knows.

GFS Ensembles Initial Conditions (no solid Azores High north of 30N):


GFS Ensembles 180-hour (stronger high building between 30N and 50N over the NE Atlantic):


GFS Ensembles 288-hour (Azores High still weak but is at least there over the NE Atlantic):
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Quoting atmoaggie:

We *might* see 70 F today in SE LA for the first time since Jan 22(?). Might have to wait until Mon or Tues, though. Had a couple of Jan days of 70+, otherwise has been since mid Dec since we had our usual winter highs. (Is a little above normal, but we normally have 70 F for a day or 2 ahead of every cold front in winter)

I can remember riding my new bike on Christmas day in shorts in the mid-80s...and sweating while doing it...
the forecast tomorrow calls for 55 or higher that will be nice mild the entire week with temps around high 40's till end of week
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Thank You Levi,
I was wondering if I needed to
send more????

I want to also thank everyone in here that was able to do that for StormW....


Taco :0)
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Quoting taco2me61:
I asked this question on here a few days ago
but not sure if the answer was given...
Did they raise enough money to send StormW
to the Conf????

Taco :0)
yes i beleive just over 500 was received so everything is good to go
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As far as the sea surface temps cooling a bit across the eastern atlantic we'll some esemble members from the GFS seem to finally develop something close to a proper Azores high which has been missing in a big way this winter.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


do we get to 50 looks possible

We *might* see 70 F today in SE LA for the first time since Jan 22(?). Might have to wait until Mon or Tues, though. Had a couple of Jan days of 70+, otherwise has been since mid Dec since we had our usual winter highs. (Is a little above normal, but we normally have 70 F for a day or 2 ahead of every cold front in winter)

I can remember riding my new bike on Christmas day in shorts in the mid-80s...and sweating while doing it...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting taco2me61:
I asked this question on here a few days ago
but not sure if the answer was given...
Did they raise enough money to send StormW
to the Conf????

Taco :0)


Yes they reached the target amount yesterday :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Next blizzard forecast to be strengthening right at the southern coastline, bottoming out in the 960s, right about where the first blizzard was at landfall, although the first one was weakening by that point.

Canadian Model (CMC) 60-hour Surface:


GFS 54-hour Surface:
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
I asked this question on here a few days ago
but not sure if the answer was given...
Did they raise enough money to send StormW
to the Conf????

Taco :0)
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do we get to 50 looks possible
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MODIS image from yesterday afternoon showing the blizzard powdering everything white. The storm is centered near the very center of the image.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
The snow is still coming down lol.

Click for Homer, Alaska Forecast



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Quoting tornadofan:
Lots or pretty graphs today. Ooohh...


Must be getting close to hurricane season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
Lots or pretty graphs today. Ooohh...
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Quoting StormW:


Now if someone would put a cork in that hole between Cuba and the Yucatan we would be all set. :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
still the Quote is not fix too where it will hid some ones commet if you had them on Ignore



am thinking about asking the Admin to re move the Quote if they cant get it fixs too where you have some one on Ignore you cant see there commet you can see there name but not the commets or some in like that


you cant have both the Ignore and the Quote on here at the same time some in of one of the too need to be fixs


Sorry about that I didn't realize he was a troll until I really looked at his handle. I'll remove the quote.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
still the Quote is not fix too where it will hid some ones commet if you had them on Ignore



am thinking about asking the Admin to re move the Quote if they cant get it fixs too where you have some one on Ignore you cant see there commet you can see there name but not the commets or some in like that


you cant have both the Ignore and the Quote on here at the same time some in of one of the too need to be fixs
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Yeah Altestic do what atmo said just ignore that troll.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
hey altestic -

I thought it an interesting comparison in the data 3 days apart, even if I have doubts about how real it is. Pay no attention to the tude you got from that one living up to his moniker.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
hey altestic -

Look, you have 3 posts in here saying "OMG the SSTs are cooling", and that statement has already been disproved with ONE post by Levi.

It's not a trend, and it seems like you, by repeatedly stating it, are trying to make it one in some peoples minds.



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Quoting atmoaggie:
And, Hi Y'all.


Hey Atmo. That's a good point about the SSTs. I don't think the cooling is a significant trend, though it would be nice if it was.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
And, Hi Y'all.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Trade winds are still quite weak across the eastern Atlantic, due to a weaker-than-normal Azores High, as one would expect with a negative NAO.

Surface Wind Anomalies:


Sea-level Pressure Anomalies:
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Hey StormW...what can you say about the recent colding trend of SSTs in the Atlantic when it's supposed to be warming up?

My comment is that we have only a couple of satellite instruments that can measure SST when clouds are present and they are rather coarse, have fairly small swaths, and the revisit rate is long. There have been *some* clouds present, so a 3 day or 5 day change *could* just be updated data where week-old data (or longer in higher latitude places that are cloudy for months) once was.

At the very least, I can guarantee that we do not have any actual SST measurements for every single pixel in those plots every day. Sometimes for far longer.

For example, in this plot, which is populated by the latest measured SST from MODIS on the Aqua satellite, which passes over this region at 19 Z every day



contains SST data over 2 weeks old.

(Plot of data age:)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting StormW:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Good to see you Gams!


Hi Storm, I am around when I can and I do lurk here sometimes! Good to see you too.
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Quoting StormW:


According to the NAO forecast, it's possible the NAO could go slightly positive for a little bit. With that said, a slight cool down would not be unexpected. However, keep in mind, SST's are still warmer than average, and this past season, were cooler than normal, and we still pulled out 9 named storms.

Another thing we look at is, as far as conditions being more favorable, mainly in the sense of wind shear, is how warm is the Atlantic Basin, relative to the EPAC, mainly the equatorial region. Even if we go to neutral, or had a very weak El Nino lingering, if the Atlantic is anomalously warmer, it kinda offsets the other.


That's a good point. If the Atlantic out-performs the East Pacific, even if both are warmer than normal, the greatest focus of heat and upward motion would still be over the Atlantic.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Quoting CycloneUK:
Sea ice is making an epic recovery!









And that's really impressive considering all the blocking that's been over the arctic this winter. I would have expected sea ice to be a lot less than that right now.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
havn't seen this message in a while

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Sea ice is making an epic recovery!







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Lol funny. 5-day SST change:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
we could hit 50 or more today last time we hit 50 or more was dec 2 2009
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any cool down should be brief i doubt we get any sub zero artic air now and if we do hopefully won't last long sun getting strong now just outside and its real warm in the direct sun its giving good heat now the ground is already soft here
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Here's a closer look on the radar. That big dot covers a lot lol.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Where in Alaska do you live Levi?


Homer, the big red dot on this map:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Where in Alaska do you live Levi?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they will come one after another for ya till mid april levi ya might get a springwinter


Not necessarily. We've only had one major snowstorm all winter until now due to the same pattern that brought the incredible winter to you guys in the lower 48. The first half of March looks to be cold and snowy here, but the 2nd half of March looks like it will see a return to warm here and cold in the eastern United States. After that I think April and May will be warmer down there for you guys and winter will come to a close.

Next storm lining up SE of the Kamchatka Peninsula:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Quoting AussieStorm:
Giant hailstorm strikes Melbourne, causing flooding and chaos

UPDATE 12.00am: Hail blanketed Melbourne like snow as a mini-cyclone storm lashed the city, causing transport chaos and forcing the cancellation of sporting events and a festival.

SA and Melbournians should expect another dose of nasty weather today, with rain of up to 100mm forecast..

Victoria Police spokeswoman Sharon Darcy last night uged people to stay away from the CBD.

%u201CWe%u2019d much prefer people stay away tonight," she said.



Nineteen millimetres of rain bucketed down on the city in less than 18 minutes this afternoon, the weather bureau said.

The huge storm cell, which hit at 2.40pm, resulted in a total of 26mm of rain in Melbourne in less an hour, bringing emergency services to a grinding halt as reports of flooding and storm damage came in from across the city.

Hail pummelled city streets and brought traffic to a standstill, with some residents reporting hail stones as big as 5cm.

"It was a very dangerous thunderstorm,'' the bureau's senior forecaster, Richard Carlyon, said.

"We don't often see storm cells like that.''

Southern Cross train station had to be evacuated as heavy rain tore a hole in its roof and a deluge splashed down on the train platforms.

Train and tram services faced widespread delays as winds peaked at 100km/h.

"This is an extreme weather condition and something Melbourne hasn't experienced for quite some time,'' a Yarra Trams spokesman told 3AW radio as some trams were left stranded between mini-lakes forming across the tracks.

The storm forced the cancellation of friendly game between Brisbane and Geelong.

In an ironic twist, the game was only rescheduled to Melbourne at the last minute because of poor weather all week on the Gold Coast, where the match was supposed to be played.

Flemington's Super Saturday races were also postponed as rain poured down the stairs at the grandstand like a waterfall.

"It was very dark and all of a sudden it was like a hurricane or a howling wind came through,'' said Josh Bell, who was in the members' grandstand when the storm hit.

"Marble-sized hail stones came down for about 10 minutes.

"The track was covered in hail. It was all white. It looked like it had snowed.''

The rain continued for about 30 minutes, overpowering the sewerage system and forcing the water down the grandstand's public stairs.

"The track's just not up to safe racing,'' Racing Victoria's chief steward Terry Bailey told the Seven Network after the race was rescheduled to next weekend.

Racehorse King Pulse also suffered serious injuries after the hail storm spooked the horse and it broke free, slipping over twice.

In the CBD, water had flooded some intersections nearly knee-deep. Shopping centres were cleared out.

The Moomba water festival along the Yarra River had to be shut down as well out of fears of further storms.

A storm warning is still in place for Melbourne and surrounding areas for the remainder of the day.

The State Emergency Service has been swamped with more than 300 calls for help, primarily from the city's western suburbs.

The freak autumn storm struck about 2pm.

The weather bureau reported tennis-ball sized hail at Ferntree Gully and more than 800 lightning strikes across the metropolitan area.

Roads were blanketed in ice so thick it looked like snow.

Cars were forced to a halt in the city centre, with some abandoned.

Reports of damage flooded in from across the city, including caved-in roofs.

Highpoint shopping centre was evacuated.

The Domain Tunnel has been closed to traffic with Flinders St also closed Westbound with flooding.

Drivers have been warned about flooding near Kings Way and heavy ice on the Monash Freeway.

CBD intersections including Little Bourke and Spencer St, King St and Collins St were closed off, causing gridlock.

Traffic lights in South Melbourne were blank, causing intersection jams.

Two cars were left floating under a rail bridge at Ferrars and York Sts, South Melbourne, after the drivers misjudged the depth of water.

Ben Eisentraut, of pet store Petstock, ran into the water to help a young woman whose Ford Fiesta was sinking.

%u201CThe car was floating,%u201D he said. %u201CI pulled it back, then some others helped me drag it out.%u201D

Vicroads has advised drivers to keep their headlights on at all times and allow greater safety distance between their car and the vehicle in front.

A car was reportedly stuck under a bridge on Kensington Rd, Ascot Vale.

The West Gate Fwy and Citylink were clogged with traffic, with the on-off ramps in gridlock.

At Moomba, festival crowds were caught by surprise in the thunderous deluge. Parents desperately shielded their children from the huge hailstones. Tonight's fireworks were cancelled.

Melton, on Melbourne's northwest fringe, was one of the first suburbs to feel the storm's wrath.

Hail the size of golf balls hammered the township while shops were flooded and roofs collapsed.

A man is lucky to be alive after his sports car lost control on the Melton Highway about 2.30pm, skidding for 100m, hitting a driveway making it airborne and ploughing into a tree.

A rural ambulance helicopter en route to a road accident had to make an emergency landing.

A spokesman said the helicopter's side window popped off its hinges, forcing the helicopter to land in a paddock near Daylesford.

The helicopter was on the way to a road accident in Daylesford at the time.

At the height of the storm, police and emergency service crews warned Brunswick residents to close their doors and windows to avoid inhaling toxic smoke from a fire in Sydney Rd.























Video

Video

seasonal transition in full swing i see
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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