Little change to Brazilian tropical disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on March 06, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Brazil, near 17S 38W, has changed little over the past day. It has a slight potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression early next week. Satellite winds estimates from the WindSat instrument show an elongated area of converging winds, but no organized surface circulation. Satellite loops show little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 28°C, about 1°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. The system is small, and this will limit its potential to become a tropical cyclone.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the Brazilian disturbance.

The ECMWF, UKMET, and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of development a fair amount in recent runs. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University show that this storm has less of a warm core than before, meaning it would probably be classifiable as a subtropical storm if it gets more organized and achieves surface wind speeds of at least 39 mph. The system does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to the Brazilian coast. I give this storm a low (< 30% chance) of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Monday. The storm should move to the south or southeast away from the coast. Only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones have formed in the South Atlantic. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms).

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
Portlight and the Liberty Schooner are sponsoring "The Haitian Food Voyage," shipping 10,000 pounds of rice to Haiti. Thanks to your generous donations, the mission is set to sail to Haiti during the second week of April. Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. R.Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, assists a woman who has just received a new walker from Portlight. The woman was injured when a 3-story building collapsed on her during the January earthquake.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Now that was just downright pitiful and weird. It was right up there with some of today's reality shows -- almost as awful as the "clean up your disgusting stinky home" one!



Me, too, Keeper. I used to ask for it at the Dance Clubs in the late 80's just to crack people up... you know what, everybody loved it, too!

BTW, what in heck is going on in our personal blogs tonight? There's crazy whackos in there!
not really sure they will be empty space soon enough
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, but they really put them through the wringer to get one. (Like that one, Awake?)

OY VEY. (Be careful, Dan-the-Altar-Boy.)
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Hey Grothar. I just checked it out and it wanted permission to access my mike (okay) and my camera(WHOOOAAAA Nelly). Backed up on that one.


It didn't call you Dave, did it? This world is getting to scary.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
The snow has stopped falling but it is still quite nasty outside right now.

Current Conditions

Homer, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 46 sec ago

17 °F
Blowing Snow
Windchill: -1 °F
Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: 9 °F
Wind: 25 mph from the WSW

Wind Gust: 33 mph
Pressure: 29.49 in (Rising)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 3200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 82 ft
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
156. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Birthmark:


But it was a really good washing machine, right?


Yeah, but they really put them through the wringer to get one. (Like that one, Awake?)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting PcolaDan:


Or "Queen for a (the) Day"


Now that was just downright pitiful and weird. It was right up there with some of today's reality shows -- almost as awful as the "clean up your disgusting stinky home" one!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

i just like a little AC/DC


Me, too, Keeper. I used to ask for it at the Dance Clubs in the late 80's just to crack people up... you know what, everybody loved it, too!

BTW, what in heck is going on in our personal blogs tonight? There's crazy whackos in there!
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Quoting Grothar:


Arguably the cruelest show ever on TV. Those poor women. What they went through for a washing machine.


But it was a really good washing machine, right?
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i like this html thing finding lots making a list up to 14 so far
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, that is scary! I now have visions of sitting at my PC humming a tune and a voice will come on telling me what it is. Where did you ever find that??


Hey Grothar. I just checked it out and it wanted permission to access my mike (okay) and my camera(WHOOOAAAA Nelly). Backed up on that one.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Or "Queen for a (the) Day"


Arguably the cruelest show ever on TV. Those poor women. What they went through for a washing machine.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210

:(
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

i just like a little AC/DC


LoL L8R >>>>
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Quoting Grothar:


Wi, se ou li ye!

And I thought I could lie and you'd swear to it *sigh*

You know, I got absolutely no help on getting tunes for this year's hurricane names.

If we make it to "S," (Heaven forbid) there's a couple tunes for Sheri, Sherry, etc. if folks don't mind different spellings...

Maybe there's a Russian song for "Igor"?
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Quoting Grothar:
By the way, anyone here old enough to remember that TV show "Name That Tune"?


Or "Queen for a (the) Day"
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Quoting Ossqss:
138 - Yep, they probably have a site that can name that tune, nah!


Wow, that is scary! I now have visions of sitting at my PC humming a tune and a voice will come on telling me what it is. Where did you ever find that??
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


MOI??? C'est NON!!!


Wi, se ou li ye!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
i just like a little AC/DC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





KEEPER!!!! And I thought you were a gentleman. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
138 - Yep, they probably have a site that can name that tune, nah!
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Quoting Grothar:
By the way, anyone here old enough to remember that TV show "Name That Tune"?


MOI??? C'est NON!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I am just jealous I don't know how to post YouTube links on here. I have tried about 10 times and failed each time. I got a few great ones I would like to post before we all get banned for off-topic subjects. It will be difficult for us to refrain from getting off topic once the season starts.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
By the way, anyone here old enough to remember that TV show "Name That Tune"?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just very quiet was busier back in late jan early feb


I am just jealous I don't know how to post YouTube links on here. I have tried about 10 times and failed each time. I got a few great ones I would like to post before we all get banned for off-topic subjects. It will be difficult for us to refrain from getting off topic once the season starts.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:
What is this blog, "Name that Tune"


no "post a tune"
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
waitin on severe weather
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
just very quiet was busier back in late jan early feb
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Floyd with no Links:) Edit - oops!
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
What is this blog, "Name that Tune"
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210


Some developments from global SSTs:

Two deep intrusions as cold as 11C are digging into the warm Kushiro Current east of Japan.

The sub-20C zone in the Humboldt is almost completely gone, although rebounded from yesterday, and the 21C and 22C lines are reaching in toward it.

Waters in the Aghulas Current as warm as 27C are clashing with cooler sub-polar water as cool as 12C, while the 13C and 22C lines are very close together.

South of South Korea, the 14C line collides with the 8C line near the coast.

The unusual flatness in the 20C line in the Atlantic is being disturbed.

Global SST anomalies. Notice the cold temperatures west of Florida colliding with the Loop Current, the warm anomaly emanating from the coast of Chile, and the warm intrusion in Pine Island Bay, the warm eddies in the Aghulas Current, the cold anomalies in the Baltic Sea, the warm anomalies near Tasmania, and the warm anomaly east and northeast of the Galapagos.

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Now y'all got me listening to Dark Side.

On the weather front, it finally reached a decent temperature in the Western NC mountains. The snow hasn't completely melted, but I have hopes it'll be gone by tomorrow.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

There's someone in my head, but it's not me.

My 80 yr old grandma and I will stay up playing cards, drinking vodka, and listening to Dark side...her fav.


I do like Floyd A Lot better Than Michael Jackson But he did sell the most
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Wow the freak storms continue in australia.

Victoria warned to brace for more severe storms

Victoria has been warned to brace for more extreme weather after one of the most intense storms seen in years smashed into Melbourne yesterday.

SURREAL STORM: WILD WEATHER BRINGS CHAOS TO MELBOURNE

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for the entire state, forecasting more heavy rain and thunderstorms this afternoon.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-warned-to-brace-for-more-severe-storms-20100307-pq0d.htm l

Where is Aussie now, like some firsthand report.
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There was an earthquake in northeastern China yesterday, magnitude 4.7 east of Beijing. Some slight potential for damage near the epicenter.

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Quoting Birthmark:


I'm a bit of Floyd fanatic. :)

There's someone in my head, but it's not me.

My 80 yr old grandma and I will stay up playing cards, drinking vodka, and listening to Dark side...her fav.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ding ding ding ding!

From The Wall.

Hugely successful upon its release, The Wall was the best selling album of 1980 in the United States. It is one of the best-selling double albums of all time, and is in the top five best-selling albums of all time in the US.

This has been a good music lesson for not-so-young people brought you by my strong urge to fly.


I'm a bit of Floyd fanatic. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes, saw that one! "OLD" Atmo. BTW can't find a current image of the S. Atlantic storm. Someone said it was getting more organized. Strange season.

Big, hires image from the Brazilians here: http://pyata.cptec.inpe.br/repositorio1/goes12/goes12_web/ams_col_alta/2010/03/S11219894_2010030703 00.jpg

From their site at: http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/home/
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Centers set up to help students overcome ‘flood phobia’
According to him, flood phobia was discovered in certain students when it was noticed that they had a marked fear of clouds and that they linked rain and clouds to floods and death.
http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2010030765504
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Kenya flood: Eyewitness
I was sleeping when the flood came. It was 0630 and I was woken by an alarm call from my team members.


I saw immediately that our camp was completely surrounded by the flood water - the offices, the tents, the 4x4 vehicles. Everything was engulfed.

Tilas Lekongo (left) at Samburu national park, Kenya
Tilas Lekongo (left) at Samburu national park, Kenya
There was no escape route and the waters were rising fast. Everybody was trying to rescue themselves. I went into my hut and gathered my valuables - my camera and my phone - and then I ran for the nearest tree and climbed up.


It wasn't long before a log came sweeping towards me and knocked my tree down. I had to swim for the next tree and climb up again. But again - a log smashed into my tree and knocked me off.

I was scared. I have never seen a flood like this before.

I swam for one of the buildings. I made it and I clambered up on to the roof.

There were three of us up there - and we could hear the cries of others all around us. We had tourists staying from Germany, the US and Britain - they had all climbed trees.

It was about 10am that the waters came down and we were able to climb down from the roof. We had some injuries - some of the tourists were taken away by helicopter for medical attention. But there were no deaths - we were very lucky.

I went back into my hut and saw what was left of my bedroom. Oh my God! The whole place was a swimming pool.

I have never seen a flood like this.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8552630.stm



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Quoting atmoaggie:

Ding ding ding ding!

From The Wall.

Hugely successful upon its release, The Wall was the best selling album of 1980 in the United States. It is one of the best-selling double albums of all time, and is in the top five best-selling albums of all time in the US.

This has been a good music lesson for not-so-young people brought you by my strong urge to fly.





Thriller became%u2014and currently remains%u2014the best-selling album of all time, with estimated sales between 65-110 million copies worldwide, and as the best-selling album in the United Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrillerLink
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Hehe..no need to apologize, Gro, I did call you old codger, earlier.

Yes, I did look at the link...not sure what to think.


Yes, saw that one! "OLD" Atmo. BTW can't find a current image of the S. Atlantic storm. Someone said it was getting more organized. Strange season.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks Atmo, sorry for the jabs, I just didn't want you to feel left out. I haven't been on in a while. I have been following the SST's the past few weeks and it did seem odd. Did you happen to catch that link I posted on the SST"s?

Hehe..no need to apologize, Gro, I did call you old codger, earlier.

Yes, I did look at the link...not sure what to think.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Birthmark:


Nobody Home - Pink Floyd


Ding ding ding ding!

From The Wall.

Hugely successful upon its release, The Wall was the best selling album of 1980 in the United States. It is one of the best-selling double albums of all time, and is in the top five best-selling albums of all time in the US.

This has been a good music lesson for not-so-young people brought you by my strong urge to fly.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:

Alright, Gro...

Thinking further on that...the values didn't change *that* much...and there does seem to be a little smoothing in the SST anomaly plots. It is possible that an erroneously cold, cloud-contaminated pixel(s) got into the data.

There is no such thing as a perfect cloud mask algorithm. Aggressive ones remove a lot of valid data. The more amicable ones *do* allow a slightly cloud-contaminated (thereby erroneously cool) pixel in now and again. Not saying I can verify that this is the case, but is certainly possible.

Our satellite data is reasonably good, but is does have a few certain caveats to watch out for...


Thanks Atmo, sorry for the jabs, I just didn't want you to feel left out. I haven't been on in a while. I have been following the SST's the past few weeks and it did seem odd. Did you happen to catch that link I posted on the SST"s?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting atmoaggie:
Quick, name the song:
"I've got wild, staring eyes"


Nobody Home - Pink Floyd

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I would doubt that the cooling of the Caribbean and the Western Atlantic is caused by pixels captured by cold clouds. It's been unusually cold and clear the past few days. The cooling is actual cooling.
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
What todo when under flood condition and casual transport fails?









"Cowboy Dundee" just doesn't have the same ring as "Crocodile Dundee" tho!
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What todo when under flood condition and casual transport fails?






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Many South Australian farmers say they were disappointed with the 2009 grain harvest, despite achieving the second-largest yield on record.

A Department of Primary Industries and Resources South Australia (PIRSA) report says the 2009 season was 25 per cent higher than the 10-year average, with almost eight million tonnes of grain harvested.

But the report says despite nearly ideal conditions in September, the bumper crop was partly destroyed by a record heatwave and heavy rain in November.

It says poor grain prices this year are adding to the disappointment felt by many farmers.

PIRSA's report predicts the poor outlook for prices may lead to a reduction in the size of the crop sowed this season, with some farmers choosing wheat crops over barley, and a possible increase in the amount of lentils, chickpeas and canola sown.

The PIRSA report says the season in the upper south-east finished on a bad to worse note, with only a few positive stories in the region.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/05/2837519.htm
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Quick, name the song:
"I've got wild, staring eyes"
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting taco2me61:
Atmoaggie I work for Mobile Area Water Sewer System and it was my turn to be on call.... Working for the city has it's ups and downs but I have to take call every 4 weeks (the part I hate)..... It's ok at least I do have a Job where there are so many that don't, if you know what I mean....

Taco :0)

May not be glamorous, but we collectively sure are glad when someone is around to fix a problem in that industry!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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