Little change to Brazilian tropical disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on March 06, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Brazil, near 17S 38W, has changed little over the past day. It has a slight potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression early next week. Satellite winds estimates from the WindSat instrument show an elongated area of converging winds, but no organized surface circulation. Satellite loops show little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 28°C, about 1°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. The system is small, and this will limit its potential to become a tropical cyclone.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the Brazilian disturbance.

The ECMWF, UKMET, and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of development a fair amount in recent runs. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University show that this storm has less of a warm core than before, meaning it would probably be classifiable as a subtropical storm if it gets more organized and achieves surface wind speeds of at least 39 mph. The system does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to the Brazilian coast. I give this storm a low (< 30% chance) of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Monday. The storm should move to the south or southeast away from the coast. Only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones have formed in the South Atlantic. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms).

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
Portlight and the Liberty Schooner are sponsoring "The Haitian Food Voyage," shipping 10,000 pounds of rice to Haiti. Thanks to your generous donations, the mission is set to sail to Haiti during the second week of April. Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. R.Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, assists a woman who has just received a new walker from Portlight. The woman was injured when a 3-story building collapsed on her during the January earthquake.

Jeff Masters

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209. severstorm
2:01 PM GMT on March 07, 2010
Jeff, i love the cold but its time for some warmth. I am tired of scraping the windows at 5 am before i leave for work. Did get to 63.7 yesterday whoo hooo!!
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
208. severstorm
1:59 PM GMT on March 07, 2010
Grother, I,m sorry i got the name wrong. still to early in the morning. need another cup of java but yeah that was something. everything in fl would have a problem. I am at 85ft so may be ok but i think your down around ft meyers so keep eyes to the east.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
205. Grothar
1:53 PM GMT on March 07, 2010
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, Ossqss they had that topic on the discovery channel last night. Las Palmas Was quite interesting and amazing what can happin if that west side of that volcano sides into the ocean. 27.1 again here in w c fl this morning.


After I posted that last night, I turned on the TV and saw it. Really scary coincidence. It just said Mega Disasters and sure enough that is what they showed. I am glad someone else saw it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
204. severstorm
1:50 PM GMT on March 07, 2010
hi jeff9641, been quite chilly over here in the mornings. last 3 days 27.1 28.2 27.1 again this morning.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
202. severstorm
1:47 PM GMT on March 07, 2010
Morning all, Ossqss they had that topic on the discovery channel last night. Las Palmas Was quite interesting and amazing what can happin if that west side of that volcano sides into the ocean. 27.1 again here in w c fl this morning.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
Orlando, March 1992 NWS pictures -- That's hail, not snow !

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=record_hailstorms

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting AussieStorm:
When did this become the volcano/doomsday blog, what happened to the weather blog?


We were waiting for you to come back on to give us a first hand on the bad weather your country has been having. Look at the times we posted those. We were all burned out at midnight. We wanted a light subject before we went to sleep and decided volcanoes and tsunamis would lull us to sleep. A little active down your way, eh?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Once-in-a-century storm hits Melbourne
“It was very dark and all of a sudden it was like a hurricane or a howling wind came through,” said Josh Bell, who was in the members' grandstand when the storm hit. “Marble-sized hail stones came down for about 10 minutes. The track was covered in hail. It was all white. It looked like it had snowed.”

Kevin Parkyn, an Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecaster, said that the storm brought hailstones 10cm in diameter — the size of lemons — in an event perhaps not seen since early last century.

“The weather system that brought the damage to Melbourne is known in meteorological terms as a supercell thunderstorm, an organised beast of a storm that once it gets going tends to last more than your average thunderstorm,” he said.

As the mop up from Saturday’s freak storm continued in the Victorian capital today, where the temperature was a mild 22C, locals were warned to brace themselves for more wild weather that was predicted to hit in the next 24 hours.

The weather bureau issued a severe thunderstorm warning and said that more wind gusts of up to 100km/hr were expected to lash the state.

Meanwhile in the northeastern state of Queensland, rural communities that were inundated by floodwaters last week were bracing for more floods as their rivers rose. Queensland declared a state of emergency and made emergency funds available for the communities.

The Balonne River in St. George was expected to peak over the weekend at 44ft (13.5m) — its highest level since records began in 1890 — as some locals stayed at a makeshift evacuation centre at the highest point in town.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article7052888.ece
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Yuk!!! with a sssshhhhiiivvverrrrr :)

Braden Oaks Area, Bradenton, Florida (PWS)

36.5 °F
Clear
Windchill: 36 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 34 °F
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting AussieStorm:
When did this become the volcano/doomsday blog, what happened to the weather blog?

G'Day Mate, are you near Melbourne Aussie?
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6.3 2010/03/07 07:05:25 -16.108 -115.256 10.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
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When did this become the volcano/doomsday blog, what happened to the weather blog?
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i heard of this:

Abstract. Geological evidence suggests that during a future
eruption, Cumbre Vieja Volcano on the Island of La Palma
may experience a catastrophic failure of its west flank, drop-
ping 150 to 500 km3 of rock into the sea. Using a geologically
reasonable estimate of landslide motion, we model tsunami
waves produced by such a collapse. Waves generated by the
run-out of a 500 km3 (150 km3) slide block at 100 m/s could
transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the
Americas with 10-25 m (3-8 m) height.
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Ok here is the real link.


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting PcolaDan:


I only spent a few days there. Fascinating is right. Did have me an Icelandic beer and some fish at a nice restaurant in Keflavik. The place is a living organism it seems. But that many earthquakes in such a short time... Could be normal for all I know though.


Actually, the only place I truly fear in the entire world is El Cumbre Vieja, on Las Palmas, Canary Islands. I will post a link on it. If it were to collapse it would make all other disaster pale in comparison. It is actually weather related, because of the amount of rainfall being absorbed. Here is one link for it. You must look at other to get the full story. Very frightening scenario, and quite real. This is the one we should be watching for.

http://www.newsmedianews.com/tsunami.php
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting WaterWitch11:
Hi Pcola,

the volcano that i have issues with is axial off the oregon coast. grant it i know there is a bunch to be concerned about but that one, i don't know. there was a ton of research being done on it in 2001 and then nothing.


May have to look that up, but later I think. Think it's time to hit the hay for now though. Having to backspace and retype too many times. :) Night all.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Grothar:


Iceland has always been called the Island of Fire and Ice. It is a common occurrence for sudden eruption to melt enormous amounts of ice and have floods. In 1963 off the coast an entire island formed in a month from an underground volcano called Surtsey. It was quite an event and followed by thousands of scientists. It is much to early to tell how eventful this could be. Be very interesting to watch. As many of you know I spent a great deal of time in Iceland. A fascinating place, especially if you like to drink, which I do not.


I only spent a few days there. Fascinating is right. Did have me an Icelandic beer and some fish at a nice restaurant in Keflavik. The place is a living organism it seems. But that many earthquakes in such a short time... Could be normal for all I know though.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Hi Pcola,

the volcano that i have issues with is axial off the oregon coast. grant it i know there is a bunch to be concerned about but that one, i don't know. there was a ton of research being done on it in 2001 and then nothing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


That's kind of scary, partially because: Typical eruption style - explosive.

It's only about 75 miles SE of Reykjavic.


Iceland has always been called the Island of Fire and Ice. It is a common occurrence for sudden eruption to melt enormous amounts of ice and have floods. In 1963 off the coast an entire island formed in a month from an underground volcano called Surtsey. It was quite an event and followed by thousands of scientists. It is much to early to tell how eventful this could be. Be very interesting to watch. As many of you know I spent a great deal of time in Iceland. A fascinating place, especially if you like to drink, which I do not.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting WaterWitch11:
from john seach:

Iceland

63.63 N, 19.62 W
summit elevation 1666 m
stratovolcano

Eyjafjöll volcano is located in southern Iceland under Eyjafjallajökull icecap. The southern end of the volcano was once part of the Atlantic coastline. The sea level has retreated some 5 km, leaving behind sheer cliffs with and many waterfalls such as Skógafoss.

Eyjafjoll volcano contains a 2.5 km wide caldera.

Eyjafjöll has been much less active than neighboring volcanoes. Since 1600's there have only been two eruptions at Eyjafjoll, while nearby Katla had 20 eruptions.

2010 Earthquakes
An earthquake swarm began under Eyjafjoll volcano in January 2010. There was a 40 mm inflation of the volcano. At the beginning of March 2010 over 3000 earthquakes were measured in a 24 hour period, with a maximum at magnitude 3.1.

Eyjafjöll Volcano Eruptions
1821-23, 1612


That's kind of scary, partially because: Typical eruption style - explosive.

It's only about 75 miles SE of Reykjavic.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
from john seach:

Iceland

63.63 N, 19.62 W
summit elevation 1666 m
stratovolcano

Eyjafjöll volcano is located in southern Iceland under Eyjafjallajökull icecap. The southern end of the volcano was once part of the Atlantic coastline. The sea level has retreated some 5 km, leaving behind sheer cliffs with and many waterfalls such as Skógafoss.

Eyjafjoll volcano contains a 2.5 km wide caldera.

Eyjafjöll has been much less active than neighboring volcanoes. Since 1600's there have only been two eruptions at Eyjafjoll, while nearby Katla had 20 eruptions.

2010 Earthquakes
An earthquake swarm began under Eyjafjoll volcano in January 2010. There was a 40 mm inflation of the volcano. At the beginning of March 2010 over 3000 earthquakes were measured in a 24 hour period, with a maximum at magnitude 3.1.

Eyjafjöll Volcano Eruptions
1821-23, 1612
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
182. xcool
lol yeah
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Quoting Grothar:


I have said it before and I will say it again; I just don't know how you post these so quickly, and so appropriately. That is the ugliest cat I have ever seen. You always give us a big laugh before beddy-bye. Hope I wasn't too punny tonight. It is just my language training. I always have to think of so many words and phrases at the same time that they just pour out of me. I shall try to reign them in a little.


Quick googler, and a little luck. And to your last sentence, Neigh. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting xcool:
lmao


That kitty! Don't show that pic to your baby boy -- too scary for him!

OH

Good night, Gracie!
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Quoting PcolaDan:




I have said it before and I will say it again; I just don't know how you post these so quickly, and so appropriately. That is the ugliest cat I have ever seen. You always give us a big laugh before beddy-bye. Hope I wasn't too punny tonight. It is just my language training. I always have to think of so many words and phrases at the same time that they just pour out of me. I shall try to reign them in a little.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
178. xcool
lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I hope they annoyed the heck out of the troll(s).
I thought they were funny...(your html, not the trolls)!
you might have to use a couple on Grothar, maybe! :)

I think I'd better say good night!
We're supposed to have another nice day tomorrow ... that makes two...whoo hoo!


Say Goodnight, Gracie! It has been fun.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting Grothar:


At least we see eye to eye on this one.


Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just foolin with them they can be annoying if used too much

I hope they annoyed the heck out of the troll(s).
I thought they were funny...(your html, not the trolls)!
you might have to use a couple on Grothar, maybe! :)

I think I'd better say good night!
We're supposed to have another nice day tomorrow ... that makes two...whoo hoo!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:




At least we see eye to eye on this one.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting Grothar:


I'm not either, but you should be careful about saying things like that on blogs. (You never know who could be watching us)


Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

The sooner the better.
I noticed your new html effects!
just foolin with them they can be annoying if used too much
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Ahh, there's The Scream, thanks, Dan.

Yes, she was a really lovely blogger, too. Some of us really miss her. I really don't know what happened.


Don't lose hope, Awake. In a few years she may come back as "Old Yeller". Come on, someone has to stop me. Even I am getting sick of them.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
170. xcool
hey .i'm ready now need hurry upppp







Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ahh, there's The Scream, thanks, Dan.

Yes, she was a really lovely blogger, too. Some of us really miss her. I really don't know what happened.

Oh, sorry about the soup. The hubby made pork chops tonight (so not Kosher... but you know, the Irish).
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Well after reading about the school that snooped on kids with school computers, makes one wonder. And I'm not a conspiracy theorist either.



I'm not either, but you should be careful about saying things like that on blogs. (You never know who could be watching us)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Where's that "SCREAM" emoticon?


There appears to be a stalker in a couple of blogs. One female has apparently removed all her blogs.



by the way, where's the chicken soup (yea, I got chutzpah) :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:


Punny you mention that. :) My wife says she got her hair caught in one when she was little. Lucky it was hand crank.


Yeah, From what I heard people got a lot of things caught in them, especially the electric ones. Maybe that is where all those expressions come from.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not really sure they will be empty space soon enough

The sooner the better.
I noticed your new html effects!
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Quoting Grothar:


It didn't call you Dave, did it? This world is getting to scary.


Well after reading about the school that snooped on kids with school computers, makes one wonder. And I'm not a conspiracy theorist either.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:


Punny you mention that. :) My wife says she got her hair caught in one when she was little. Lucky it was hand crank.


Where's that "SCREAM" emoticon?
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Quoting xcool:


Hey xcool, Been a long time. Better sharpen you tools for this season. Looks like it could be an active one. We are going to depend on you for those graphics.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, but they really put them through the wringer to get one. (Like that one, Awake?)


Punny you mention that. :) My wife says she got her hair caught in one when she was little. Lucky it was hand crank.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Now that was just downright pitiful and weird. It was right up there with some of today's reality shows -- almost as awful as the "clean up your disgusting stinky home" one!



Me, too, Keeper. I used to ask for it at the Dance Clubs in the late 80's just to crack people up... you know what, everybody loved it, too!

BTW, what in heck is going on in our personal blogs tonight? There's crazy whackos in there!
not really sure they will be empty space soon enough
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.