Little change to Brazilian tropical disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on March 06, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Brazil, near 17S 38W, has changed little over the past day. It has a slight potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression early next week. Satellite winds estimates from the WindSat instrument show an elongated area of converging winds, but no organized surface circulation. Satellite loops show little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 28°C, about 1°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. The system is small, and this will limit its potential to become a tropical cyclone.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the Brazilian disturbance.

The ECMWF, UKMET, and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of development a fair amount in recent runs. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University show that this storm has less of a warm core than before, meaning it would probably be classifiable as a subtropical storm if it gets more organized and achieves surface wind speeds of at least 39 mph. The system does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to the Brazilian coast. I give this storm a low (< 30% chance) of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Monday. The storm should move to the south or southeast away from the coast. Only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones have formed in the South Atlantic. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms).

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
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Figure 2. R.Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, assists a woman who has just received a new walker from Portlight. The woman was injured when a 3-story building collapsed on her during the January earthquake.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting cchsweatherman:


All I gotta say is hot damn. Definitely not a good day for a Mediterranean cruise. lol


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Quoting CycloneUK:
Impressive storm in the mediterranean sea.




All I gotta say is hot damn. Definitely not a good day for a Mediterranean cruise. lol
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Quoting atmoaggie:

I plan on suffering through lifting a coffee cup, so far, nothingmore.

I was chopping and pulling vines and underbrush out of a mixed growth wooded area next door. It would be nice if the oaks and magnolias could actually grow. Of course, they are towered over by pines. Had to be a little careful with the vines. Two went all the way up to the crown of oak trees that have bird nests in them. Just cut those as high as I could rather than pull them out, lest I pull some cardinal eggs or chicks out...

Noticed my weeping willow thinks it is spring and went ahead with it's business. Thus far, all of the maples are still pretty sure it is still winter. How they know is beyond me.


Yes, the same thing here in the DFW, TX area. By now, at least half of the trees have started to bloom...Well, this year maybe 10% of the trees are showing their new buds for spring.

Finally, here in N TX, we have had a few days above normal, with high temps averaging right around 70F. It is raining today, and will do so tomorrow, so high temps will run for 60F.

Come on Tu/We. We are expecting highs both days between 70-75F, before a cool down back to the low 60's for the Th-Sa period.
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Impressive storm in the mediterranean sea.


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Quoting Grothar:


You can download the software.

Link

LOL! That's what I meant. DCDRBU...uses the NAWIPS Library.
Using it! Thanks anyway.

Will need to translate the interface output to a useful format for further use, but all over the decoder, ATM.

Anyone know of a Linux-compatible program that will automatically poll a site and recognize that a couple of files have changed and them download only the new ones?

Currently invoking wget every 5 minutes in a looped script.
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Quoting scottsvb:
I actually take back what I said about W-C-FL temp Mins last night. Although brooksville reporting station is not a offical site and has erorrs to it. Alot of locations went under guidance by 3-5 deg and down into the lower 30s and a couple had 29. Anyways my bad!


We had frost on the roofs here in East Bradenton this morning. Brrrrr, even the dog didn't want to go out :) L8R all out (☼¿☼)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
I actually take back what I said about W-C-FL temp Mins last night. Although brooksville reporting station is not a offical site and has erorrs to it. Alot of locations went under guidance by 3-5 deg and down into the lower 30s and a couple had 29. Anyways my bad!
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Quoting Ossqss:
231- this is a little bit newer and not $31. I have read some time ago of cascade reactions. Mostly chemical in nature. :)

Plants Can Recognize, Communicate With Relatives, Studies Find


Plants Communicate to Warn Against Danger

Then of course plants have twitter now - LoL



That would explain the strange message I received, "Cut off one more of my leaves and we are done" signed your friend Arica Palm.

Good image. That really is funny.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting atmoaggie:

Grothar, btw, I did build a script to poll this site: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ss/ and process all of the ssvx files. Decodes through the dbdrcu AWIPS decoder. (Yes, is WMO FM-18 format).

Ended up with 20,000 buoy records from the drifters and TAO and PIRATA arrays in 24 hours. Data from 2000 platforms.

Will eventually have an operational product.


You can download the software.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
231- this is a little bit newer and not $31. I have read some time ago of cascade reactions. Mostly chemical in nature. :)

Plants Can Recognize, Communicate With Relatives, Studies Find


Plants Communicate to Warn Against Danger

Then of course plants have twitter now - LoL

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting WAHA:

And how do you know it won't form? We don't have accurate measurments and excel like in the North Atlantic. And also, if you flip an image of it upside down and put the screen infront of a mirror, it looks like Zeta before it formed.


Nobody "knows" what the weather will do lol. I'm just offering up my opinion. Anything can happen but I can pretty much guarantee that if it does develop it will be far from fully tropical, a hybrid system at best. And with 30+ knots of shear over it for the next 3 days I don't think we can get a convective core going. The shear is what has prevented it from developing over the last 4 days or it would have been a hurricane right now. It was on its way you didn't get to see it when I saw it several days ago with a well-defined tight closed circulation and spinning convection over the center. It would have developed but the shear was too much for it and the convection collapsed.

I will still hope but I gave up on it 2 days ago when I saw how this system deals with shear. Every tropical disturbance deals with it a different way and this one hasn't been able to handle it so far.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting doabarrelroll:

heard about this Miami would be sunk


miami and the rest of the eastern seaboard

not a matter of if but when
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, Ossqss they had that topic on the discovery channel last night. Las Palmas Was quite interesting and amazing what can happin if that west side of that volcano sides into the ocean. 27.1 again here in w c fl this morning.



I hope your not refering to West Central Florida on that 27.1 lowest readings were around 37 deg, most locations went down to the upper 30s to low 40s
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246. WAHA
Quoting Levi32:


And in fact now that I look at it more closely I don't think that band of clouds is a front. The comma-shape is probably just the upper low drawing in dry air off the continent with thunderstorms breaking out in the area of upper divergence over the water. At any rate it's pumping 20-30 knots of shear over our little "invest".

And how do you know it won't form? We don't have accurate measurments and excel like in the North Atlantic. And also, if you flip an image of it upside down and put the screen infront of a mirror, it looks like Zeta before it formed.
Also, the Ascat swath is being blocked.
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I mean there's a low look at it...

But as much as I wish there was a chance for it to develop tropically I just don't see one.

Notice on the WindSat image how the core of high winds is well-removed from the center. That's a strong sign that tropical processes aren't at work and the wind maximum is being created baroclinically.


Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting atmoaggie:

Grothar, btw, I did build a script to poll this site: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ss/ and process all of the ssvx files. Decodes through the dbdrcu AWIPS decoder. (Yes, is WMO FM-18 format).

Ended up with 20,000 buoy records from the drifters and TAO and PIRATA arrays in 24 hours. Data from 2000 platforms.

Will eventually have an operational product.


If anyone could do it, you could. I'm not fluffing you either. I am going to send you a link you might find interesting though.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I know that's what I was talking about. Big brother to the southwest is killing it.


And in fact now that I look at it more closely I don't think that band of clouds is a front. The comma-shape is probably just the upper low drawing in dry air off the continent with thunderstorms breaking out in the area of upper divergence over the water. At any rate it's pumping 20-30 knots of shear over our little "invest".
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
North America 2m temperature last night, degrees Celsius (1 map)
Link
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Quoting WAHA:
Not that one! It's in the center of this circle.


Yeah I know that's what I was talking about. Big brother to the southwest is killing it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting atmoaggie:

Haven't found much better than this site for looking at sat images of it: http://sos.cptec.inpe.br/sos/
(brush up on your Portuguese)


You can also use Nexsat, but ya, theres not much coverage of the South Atlantic. Doesn't help GOES-10 was decommisioned before GOES-11 can move into its place.
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Well the models just keep getting scarier and scarier with the 2nd punch of my blizzard week coming tonight and tomorrow. The difference between this storm and the last one is this one is deepening late, bombing out right as it nears my area, and it's going to stall just to my east and just sit there for 36 hours. It's also taking a track about 50 miles to the southeast of the 1st one. This track could end up meaning less precipitation than the first one due to down-sloping, but the winds are going to be far worse as the low bombs out just to the south. Hurricane-force gusts are likely both in front and behind the system. We shall see what happens. I am rooting (however you spell that) for my 60-inch snowstake to get buried with this one. It's currently covered up to 40 inches after packing down 3 inches since the last storm yesterday.

The animation I put together below shows the GFS surface forecast from 0-60 hours. Sorry that the legend isn't on there but the colors represent 925mb temperature, with the pink line and white color representing 0C.

12z GFS Surface Forecast 0-60hr:



GFS Cyclone-Phase Diagram and Track with SSTs:





Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
238. WAHA
Quoting Levi32:


Aww man you really had me hoping there when I woke up lol.

Unfortunately it looks to me just like an extratropical low developing north of Uruguay with a sort of front starting to develop over and east of Brazil. Our little friend is getting entrained into this front as an open surface trough, and can't compete with the large circulation to its southwest. I'm afraid there's little chance now. The thing isn't fully extratropical yet but it soon will be. The whole system will be stuck in that area for the next 4 days but with cold air aloft and strong westerlies overhead, there's little chance for significant subtropical development. The models have it as shallow warm-core for the next couple days, but with an enlarging wind-field. That means it's well on its way to becoming non-tropical, so I doubt we'll get any recognition of the system by the NHC as being anything worthy of note.
Not that one! It's in the center of this circle.
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Quoting Levi32:


Aww man you really had me hoping there when I woke up lol.

Unfortunately it looks to me just like an extratropical low developing north of Uruguay with a sort of front starting to develop over and east of Brazil. Our little friend is getting entrained into this front as an open surface trough, and can't compete with the large circulation to its southwest. I'm afraid there's little chance now. The thing isn't fully extratropical yet but it soon will be. The whole system will be stuck in that area for the next 4 days but with cold air aloft and strong westerlies overhead, there's little chance for significant subtropical development. The models have it as shallow warm-core for the next couple days, but with an enlarging wind-field. That means it's well on its way to becoming non-tropical, so I doubt we'll get any recognition of the system by the NHC as being anything worthy of note.

Haven't found much better than this site for looking at sat images of it: http://sos.cptec.inpe.br/sos/
(brush up on your Portuguese)
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Mid to upper 80's could fuel another severe wx outbreak in C FL on Thursday. The high is forecast to be 84 or 85 with high humidity. It's been very quite in the severe wx dept. so far this year but that is about to change in a few days starting in East TX. on Wed.


Right now, I'm really not concerned for severe weather in Central and Southern Florida come the latter part of the upcoming week. Even though temps will be climbing into the middle 80s across Florida heading towards Thursday and Friday, the air mass in place will be relatively stable and not conducive to severe storms. In analyzing the latest GFS and ECMWF models, the forecast soundings show unimpressive CAPE and weak lift for Thursday and Friday despite increasing moisture from the south. At this time, all I'm anticipating is some scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms, which is rather typical for our transition into spring here in Florida.
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Quoting WAHA:
I'm serious there is a storm in the south Atlantic!
Link


Aww man you really had me hoping there when I woke up lol.

Unfortunately it looks to me just like an extratropical low developing north of Uruguay with a sort of front starting to develop over and east of Brazil. Our little friend is getting entrained into this front as an open surface trough, and can't compete with the large circulation to its southwest. I'm afraid there's little chance now. The thing isn't fully extratropical yet but it soon will be. The whole system will be stuck in that area for the next 4 days but with cold air aloft and strong westerlies overhead, there's little chance for significant subtropical development. The models have it as shallow warm-core for the next couple days, but with an enlarging wind-field. That means it's well on its way to becoming non-tropical, so I doubt we'll get any recognition of the system by the NHC as being anything worthy of note.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Wellll - you may want to reconsider that statement. There is evidence that plants communicate and react: Link

I'm not so sure about the thinking, though.

Huh. I wonder what the plan is for woodpeckers...cacophony of (read really fast) rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap here every now and then.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

What happened to AIM's posts? Did I iggy her on accident or...

Nope, her blog has been banned by admin. Wunder what went down.


Quick flyby, out in the beautiful weather working in the yard. I suspect AIM may have gotten another ban (hopefully temp) because her blog may have seemed like a sales pitch for specific beauty products. IMO it was about beauty products in general, because it started in someone else's blog and she took it a little deeper. Of course I could be wrong about the whole thing. But I saw no other reason for a ban.

Back to the yard now.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
232. WAHA
I'm serious there is a storm in the south Atlantic!
Link
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Quoting Grothar:


I swear Atmo, sometimes I believe that plants don't react, they think. Which leads into a weather related story about plants......


Wellll - you may want to reconsider that statement. There is evidence that plants communicate and react: Link

I'm not so sure about the thinking, though.
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005

WTNT80 EGRR 070600


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.03.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 22.0S 37.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.03.2010 22.0S 37.5W WEAK
00UTC 08.03.2010 23.8S 39.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.03.2010 26.5S 42.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.03.2010 28.6S 44.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.03.2010 29.5S 45.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.03.2010 29.4S 47.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.03.2010 30.6S 46.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.03.2010 31.0S 45.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.03.2010 32.8S 43.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.03.2010 35.1S 40.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.03.2010 37.7S 35.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.03.2010 39.9S 28.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070459


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Temperatures are warmer. Finally we got an average weekly temp of 50.4 which is rizing.


High: Low: Average:
Temperature: 69.9 %uFFFDF 31.8 %uFFFDF 50.4 %uFFFDF
Dew Point: 19.8 %uFFFDF -2.7 %uFFFDF 9.1 %uFFFDF
Humidity: 25.0% 14.0% 18.9%
Wind Speed: 11.0mph from the East - -0.2mph
Wind Gust: 15.4mph from the SSW - -
Wind: - - SE
Pressure: 30.09in 29.74in -
Precipitation: 0.66in



Come cheak out my blog and comment if you like.

Link
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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227. WAHA
anyone needs me, I'll be in tropics talk for 2 hrs unless someone comes then it might be longer
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226. WAHA
Hey, grothar, the storm from yesterday strengthened, the one in the South Atlantic! Check it out!
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Quoting Grothar:


We are lucky. It is a great day. People actually pay for this and we get it for free.

Grothar, btw, I did build a script to poll this site: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ss/ and process all of the ssvx files. Decodes through the dbdrcu AWIPS decoder. (Yes, is WMO FM-18 format).

Ended up with 20,000 buoy records from the drifters and TAO and PIRATA arrays in 24 hours. Data from 2000 platforms.

Will eventually have an operational product.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Cool. Grothar.. I live in Lauderdale...what a beautiful morning....


We are lucky. It is a great day. People actually pay for this and we get it for free.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting Grothar:


Don't worry about the name thing. I am the youngest of nine children. My mother would call me at least 8 other names before she slapped me. LOL But, We are in Ft. Lauderdale, on one of Islands on the Intracoastal Waterway. But don't worry about me, I am at least 12 feet above sea level. HA

Cool. Grothar.. I live in Lauderdale...what a beautiful morning....
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Quoting atmoaggie:

What happened to AIM's posts? Did I iggy her on accident or...

Nope, her blog has been banned by admin. Wunder what went down.


She was on last night. I don't know what could have happened. We were all actually civil last night, if you can believe that.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting Grothar:


I swear Atmo, sometimes I believe that plants don't react, they think. Which leads into a weather related story about plants......

What happened to AIM's posts? Did I iggy her on accident or...

Nope, her blog has been banned by admin. Wunder what went down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

I plan on suffering through lifting a coffee cup, so far, nothingmore.

I was chopping and pulling vines and underbrush out of a mixed growth wooded area next door. It would be nice if the oaks and magnolias could actually grow. Of course, they are towered over by pines. Had to be a little careful with the vines. Two went all the way up to the crown of oak trees that have bird nests in them. Just cut those as high as I could rather than pull them out, lest I pull some cardinal eggs or chicks out...

Noticed my weeping willow thinks it is spring and went ahead with it's business. Thus far, all of the maples are still pretty sure it is still winter. How they know is beyond me.


I swear Atmo, sometimes I believe that plants don't react, they think. Which leads into a weather related story about plants......
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting severstorm:
ok so i cant get anything right today day, so what did the other kids do to you after your mom got done with you. did they slap as hard or harder lol 12 ft you better have a quick way out. I myself lived in hollywood fl for about 5 yrs. I was 1/2 miles from the beach. use to go to the beach to watch the thunderstorms roll in or out. what a site that was.


Actually, there are 3 sisters and 1 brother whom I haven't spoken to in years. The others and I just pretend they don't exist. It is much more peaceful. Not nice people at all. By the way, my mother's family moved to Hollywood in 1924. My grandfather worked for the Young family. I lived there many years. It is still just a short distance from where I am now. Had nice beaches. They were there for the 1926 Hurricane, my Aunts and Uncles would often talk of it. They had just completed the Hollywood Hotel which was a magnificient building in its day. They told us that hardly a building was left standing in Miami.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
The azaleas (sp) are way behind schedule here in Pensacola. Normally they are blooming by now, this year they aare noteven close!
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That clearing was a lot easier than it could have been, btw. About half of what I wanted to clear was killed by our freezes and was easy to clear out.
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Quoting Grothar:


What are you planning on chopping down today?

I plan on suffering through lifting a coffee cup, so far, nothingmore.

I was chopping and pulling vines and underbrush out of a mixed growth wooded area next door. It would be nice if the oaks and magnolias could actually grow. Of course, they are towered over by pines. Had to be a little careful with the vines. Two went all the way up to the crown of oak trees that have bird nests in them. Just cut those as high as I could rather than pull them out, lest I pull some cardinal eggs or chicks out...

Noticed my weeping willow thinks it is spring and went ahead with it's business. Thus far, all of the maples are still pretty sure it is still winter. How they know is beyond me.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Good (owww) Morn (owww)

(MY hands and fingers really are sore from brush clearing by machete)


What are you planning on chopping down today?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
jeff I am hearing you and paying attention. thanks for the heads up.
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ok so i cant get anything right today day, so what did the other kids do to you after your mom got done with you. did they slap as hard or harder lol 12 ft you better have a quick way out. I myself lived in hollywood fl for about 5 yrs. I was 1/2 miles from the beach. use to go to the beach to watch the thunderstorms roll in or out. what a site that was.
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Good (owww) Morn (owww)

(MY hands and fingers really are sore from brush clearing by machete)
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Quoting severstorm:
Grother, I,m sorry i got the name wrong. still to early in the morning. need another cup of java but yeah that was something. everything in fl would have a problem. I am at 85ft so may be ok but i think your down around ft meyers so keep eyes to the east.


Don't worry about the name thing. I am the youngest of nine children. My mother would call me at least 8 other names before she slapped me. LOL But, We are in Ft. Lauderdale, on one of Islands on the Intracoastal Waterway. But don't worry about me, I am at least 12 feet above sea level. HA
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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