The future of intense winter storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on March 03, 2010

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When Winter Storm Xynthia powered ashore over Europe last weekend, it brought hurricane-force wind gusts, flooding rains, and a 1-meter storm surge topped by 8-meter high battering waves that overwhelmed sea walls in France, killing scores of people. Today, AIR Worldwide estimated the insured damage from the storm at $1.5 - $3 billion. Intense extratropical cyclones like Xynthia, with central pressures below 970 mb, make up less than 20% of all wintertime cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, but cause the vast majority of the devastation and loss of life. The ten deadliest winter storms to hit Europe over the past 60 years all had minimum pressures lower than 970 mb. The situation is similar for North America, though the storms generally do not get as intense as their European counterparts (the four major Nor'easters this winter have had central pressures of 968, 969, 978, and 972 mb). It is important, then, to ask if these strongest of the strong storms are changing in frequency, and whether a future warmer world will have more or less of these storms.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Xynthia, as captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Image was acquired in two separate overpasses on February 27, 2010. MODIS captured the eastern half of the image around 10:50 UTC, and the western half about 12:30 UTC. Forming a giant comma shape, clouds stretch from the Atlantic Ocean to northern Italy. Xynthia peaked in intensity at 18 UTC February 27, with a central pressure of 966 mb. Image credit: NASA.

Have intense Northern Hemisphere winter storms increased in number?
Most of the material for this post comes from three sources: the 2007 IPCC report, a 2009 review titled, Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, and Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). An increasing number of intense winter storms in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades of the 20th century was a common theme of many of the studies reviewed. However, the studies used different measures as to what constitutes an "intense" storm, and have some disagreement on which areas of the globe are seeing more intense storms. A 1996 study by Canadian researcher Steven Lambert (Figure 3) found a marked increase in intense wintertime cyclones (central pressure less than 970 mb) in the latter part of the 20th century. Most of this increase occurred in the Pacific Ocean. Other studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific in the latter part of the 20th century. Benestad and Chen(2006) found an increase in the number of intense storms over the Nordic countries over the period 1955-1994, but no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic. Gulev et al. (2001) found a small increase in the number of intense North Pacific storms (core pressure below 980 mb), a large increase in the Arctic, but a small decrease in the Atlantic. McCabe et al. 2001 found an increase at both mid-latitudes and high latitudes, particularly in the Arctic. Hirsch et al. (2001) found that the number of intense Nor'easters along the U.S. East Coast (storms with winds > 52 mph) stayed roughly constant at three storms per year over the period 1951 - 1997. Over the period 1900 to 1990, the number of strong cyclones (less than 992 mb) in November and December more than doubled over the Great Lakes of North America (Angel and Isard, 1998). With regards to Europe, Lionello et al. conclude, "the bulk of evidence from recent studies mostly supports, or at least does not contradict, the finding of an attenuation of cyclones over the Mediterranean and an intensification over Northern Europe during the second part of the twentieth century".


Figure 2. Trends in strong extratropical cyclones with central pressures less than 980 mb, for the period 1989 - 2009, as estimated using thirteen different methods, M02 - M22, defined in Neu et al., 2012. The error-bars represent the 95% confidence range of the trend estimate. A trend is significant at 5% level if the error-bar does not include zero. Four of the thirteen methods showed a slightly significant downward trend in both summertime and wintertime Northern Hemisphere strong extratropical cyclones during the period. None of the methods showed a statistically significant trend in Southern Hemisphere strong extratropical cyclones during either summer or winter. Image credit: U. Neu, M.G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H.F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, I. Kindem, G.C. Leckebusch, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, and H. Wernli, "IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 120919072158001, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1

In summary, the best science we have shows that there has not been a statistically significant increase in the number of intense wintertime extratropical storms globally in the past two decades, but there has been and increase in the North Pacific and Arctic. Increased wave heights have been observed along the coasts of Oregon and Washington during this period, adding confidence to the finding of increased intense storm activity. The evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Wintertime top 5% heavy precipitation events (both rain and snow) have increased over the Northeast U.S. in recent decades (Groisman et al., 2004), so Nor'easters have been more of a threat to cause flooding problems and heavy snow events. In all portions of the globe, tracks of extratropical storms have shifted poleward in recent decades, in accordance with global warming theory. Note that the historical data base for strong winter storms is in better shape than the data base we are using to try to detect long-term changes in hurricanes. The Ulbrich et al. (2009) review article states:

The IPCC AR4 (cf. Trenberth et al. 2007, p. 312) states that the detection of long-term changes in cyclone measures is hampered by incomplete and changing observing systems. Recent studies found, however, a general reliability of results for cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. There are no sudden shifts in intensities that would indicate inhomogeneities, and also a comparison with cyclone activity estimated from regional surface and radiosonde data (Wang et al. 2006b; Harnik and Chang 2003) confirmed the general reliability of the data".

However, the data is not as good in the Southern Hemisphere, so the finding that intense winter storms are also increasing in that hemisphere must be viewed with caution.


Figure 3. Number of intense winter cyclones with central pressure less than 970 mb in the Northern Hemisphere, North Pacific, and North Atlantic between 1899 - 1991. Image credit: Lambert, S.J., 1996: Intense extratropical Northern Hemisphere winter cyclone events: 1899-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 101D, 2131921325.

Intense winter storms may increase in number
General Circulation Models (GCMs) like the ones used in the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report do a very good job simulating how winter storms behave in the current climate, and we can run simulations of the atmosphere with extra greenhouse gases to see how winter storms will behave in the future. The results are very interesting. Global warming is expected to warm the poles more than the equatorial regions. This reduces the difference in temperature between the pole and Equator. Since winter storms form in response to the atmosphere's need to transport heat from the Equator to the poles, this reduced temperature difference reduces the need for winter storms, and thus the models predict fewer storms will form. However, since a warmer world increases the amount of evaporation from the surface and puts more moisture in the air, these future storms drop more precipitation. During the process of creating that precipitation, the water vapor in the storm must condense into liquid or frozen water, liberating "latent heat"--the extra heat that was originally added to the water vapor to evaporate it in the first place. This latent heat intensifies the winter storm, lowering the central pressure and making the winds increase. So, the modeling studies predict a future with fewer total winter storms, but a greater number of intense storms. These intense storms will have more lift, and will thus tend to drop more precipitation--including snow, when we get areas of strong lift in the -15°C preferred snowflake formation region. For completeness' sake, some of the studies that show more intense winter cyclones in a warmer world are Lambert (1995), Boer et al. (1992), Dai et al. (2001), Geng and Sugi (2003), Fyfe (2003), Lambert (2004), Leckebusch and Ulbrich (2004), Lambert and Fyfe (2006), Pinto et al. (2007), and Lionello et al. (2008). A review article be Ulbrich et al. provides a nice summary. However, two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. One interesting new study (O'Gorman, 2010) found that wintertime extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere would increase in intensity by 2100 primarily because the surface would heat up more than the upper air, making the atmosphere more unstable. In summer, the models predict a decrease in extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, these storms were predicted in increase in intensity year-round. The models studied were the 2007 IPCC suite of climate models.

What the IPCC models say
The Lambert and Fyfe (2006) study, titled, "Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise", looked at thirteen models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC Climate Change report. Of these models, eleven simulated an increase in the number and intensity of the most intense cyclones (<970 mb pressure) in the climate expected by 2100. Two of the models did not, so it is fair to say that there is some uncertainty in these results. Nevertheless, the model results are compelling enough that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms.


Figure 4. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Conclusion
The best science we have suggests that there has not been an increase in intense wintertime extratropical cyclones globally in recent decades, though there has been an increase in the Pacific and Arctic. Research by Barredo (2010) suggests that Europe has not yet seen a significant increase in damaging winter storms, since normalized damages from severe winter storms did not increase between 1970 - 2008. The 2013 IPCC report sums it up this way:

"Confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low. There is also low confidence for a clear trend in storminess proxies over the last century due to inconsistencies between studies or lack of long-term data in some parts of the world (particularly in the SH). Likewise, confidence in trends in extreme winds is low, due to quality and consistency issues with analyzed data."

The report says that extratropical cyclones are expected to shift poleward in a warming climate, but does not have any conclusions on how the most intense storms may change, other than to dump more precipitation.

References
Auer, A.H. Jr. and J.M. White, 1982: The Combined Role of Kinematics, Thermodynamics, and Cloud Physics Associated with Heavy Snowfall Episodes. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, pp 500-507.

Barredo, J.I., 2010, "No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970–2008," Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 97-104, 2010, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-97-2010

Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E (2006): Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:35183543

Boer GJ, McFarlane NA, Lazare M (1992) Greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated with the CCC second generation general circulation model. J Climate 5:10451077

Dai, A., et al., 2001b: Climates of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries simulated by the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Clim., 14, 485519.

Feser et al., 2014, Storminess over the North Atlantic and Northwestern Europe - A Review, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1002/qj.2364.

Fyfe, J.C., 2003: Extratropical southern hemisphere cyclones: Harbingers of climate change? J. Clim., 16, 28022805.

Geng, Q.Z., and M. Sugi, 2003: Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols - Study with a high-resolution AGCM. J. Clim., 16, 22622274.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2007a: Higher waves along U.S. east coast linked to hurricanes. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 88, 301.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2007b: A note on the depiction and analysis of wave-height histograms. Shore & Beach, 75(4), 1- 5.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Lambert, S.J., 1995: The effect of enhanced greenhouse warming on winter cyclone frequencies and strengths, J Climate 8:1447-1452

Lambert, S.J., 1996: Intense extratropical Northern Hemisphere winter cyclone events: 1899-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 101D, 2131921325.

Lambert S.J., 2004: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths in transient enhanced greenhouse warming simulations using two coupled climate models. Atmos Ocean 42:173 181

Lambert, S.J., and J.C. Fyfe, 2006: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Clim. Dyn., 26, 713728.

Leckebusch, G.C., and U. Ulbrich, 2004: On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change. Global Planet. Change, 44, 181193.

Lionello P, Boldrin U, Giorgi F (2008) Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation. Clim Dyn 30:657671

Neu, U., M.G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H.F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, I. Kindem, G.C. Leckebusch, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, and H. Wernli, "IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 120919072158001, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1

O'Gorman, P.A., 2010, Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1011547107

Pinto JG, Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M, Zacharias S (2007c) Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPIOM1 GCM. Clim Dyn 29:195210

Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G.C. and J.G. Pinto (2009), Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 96, Numbers 1-2 / April, 2009 DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8

Related posts
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High seas an waves from storm Synthia, with storm-surge taking over the entire beach, and "attacking" bars usually 30meters away from the sea.
Xynthia - High seas in Carcavelos (Portugal)

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Mea Culpa
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3418
G'nite all.

Still feeling the winter chill here in Nassau; temps are forecast to hit the low 50s overnight. As a point of comparison, our normal average high/low in the first week of March is 80/64.

It'll be interesting to see if the temps rebound enough by May to give us an early start to the season.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
what do you guys think about my numbers


numbers here is some numbers for ya
20 T.S. 10 HURRICANES 6 MAJORS 3 CAT 5'S
are they good numbers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathers4me:
Did the earthquake in Haiti and the Chile earthquake occur on the same fault line? When looking at the map, they look like they are on a vertical. Thoughts. Still waiting for a comment on the overall weather pattern for North GA in 30 days. Thanks

lol
no the two countries are on a whole different plates with different faults but if you are talking about types of faults well may be
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Quoting PcolaDan:
from CNN

"Earthquakes are not uncommon in the 13,892-square-mile island -- about the size of the U.S. states of Maryland and Delaware combined -- which sits across the juncture of the Eurasian and Philippine tectonic plates.

A 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck the same general region in December. The island took a double hit on December 26, 2006, when earthquakes of 7.1 and 6.9 magnitude hit eight minutes apart.

The largest recorded quake to strike Taiwan was an 8.0-magnitude quake in 1920, but the worst earthquake disaster stemmed from a 7.1-magnitude quake in 1935 that killed more than 3,200 people -- followed by a 6.5-magnitude quake that killed more than 2,700 people three months later.

More recently, a 7.6-magnitude earthquake killed more than 2,400 people in 1999."


the earthquakes don;t seem to be calming down
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1917
Did the earthquake in Haiti and the Chile earthquake occur on the same fault line? When looking at the map, they look like they are on a vertical. Thoughts. Still waiting for a comment on the overall weather pattern for North GA in 30 days. Thanks
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Skye -- In regards to your question a couple days ago about Xynthia's effect on SSTs, I now have two images for you, one from February 25th, from before the storm passed NW of the Canaries, and the other from February 28th, the day after the storm passed. There really doesn't seem to be much difference after the storm's passage, at least to my eyes. Extratropical cyclones don't generally drain a lot of the ocean's energy anyway when they use it.

February 25th SSTs:



February 28th SSTs:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
check out brazil
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I've been watching this blog for a couple years and was born and raised in Gulfport, MS. I also have done alot of water rescue along the MS, AL coast. I have seen these water temps rise real quick (and drop). But the only thing I'm a pro at is ticking my wife off....LOL
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Next week could be a big week for severe wx for all of the gulf coast states. Very warm moist air will return in about 5 days combine with a powerful southern jet and this means trouble (TORNADOES).


My thoughts are that a Storm of The Century type is more plausible this year(doesn't mean it will happen).
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1478
from CNN

"Earthquakes are not uncommon in the 13,892-square-mile island -- about the size of the U.S. states of Maryland and Delaware combined -- which sits across the juncture of the Eurasian and Philippine tectonic plates.

A 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck the same general region in December. The island took a double hit on December 26, 2006, when earthquakes of 7.1 and 6.9 magnitude hit eight minutes apart.

The largest recorded quake to strike Taiwan was an 8.0-magnitude quake in 1920, but the worst earthquake disaster stemmed from a 7.1-magnitude quake in 1935 that killed more than 3,200 people -- followed by a 6.5-magnitude quake that killed more than 2,700 people three months later.

More recently, a 7.6-magnitude earthquake killed more than 2,400 people in 1999."
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Don't worry the gulf will heat up quick. Also look at the loop current this is warmer than last year at this time. Expect temps in the upper 70's to low 80's across most of the Florida penisula all next week.
Just a novice here but tend to agree. It isn't only the air temps that will help the water temps rise. The currents will bring in warmer water as well as a couple weeks of warmer air temps and the Gulf should heat back up rather quickly. (I hope that's right) Sounds good anyway...lol
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258. Skyepony (Mod)
Polar motion got updated. Chili's earthquake is more pronounced on the time, maybe a little turn in the wobble. Wobble may need a little time to see full impact.


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Quoting bappit:
#155 (corrected)

"Satellites are clearly better so those are the records that should be looked at and trusted."

That seems a bit glib. The Dr. had a blog not too long ago that noted satellite data must be manipulated to account for inconsistent instruments over time.


Was he speaking about satellite temps?

Regarding the Jan 2010 measurement:

"We don't hide the data or use tricks, folks, it is what it is.

[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT's are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]"

- Dr. Roy Spencer
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3418
Does anyone have an extended weather forecast/temp for Blue Ridge GA (20 day forecast).
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6.4 Taiwan Link
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252. MTWX
Quoting RufusBaker:
mAN THE GULF IS COLD iTS GONNA TAKE ATLEAST FOUR MONTHS TO WARM UP. GONNA BE ANOTHER DUD OF A HURRICANE SEASON

It doesn't suprise me that the gulf is cold. We haven't had a winter like this in the deep south in 20 years!!
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Quoting TampaTom:


I hate them....


ROFL! And he's the PRO!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting MTWX:
A liitle off topic... What do you guys think about all these earthquakes? Another big one hit Taiwan today


I'm not a scientist, but what I think is that everyone has to review disaster scenarios and what to do in case of earthquakes and tsunamis. Also see what local emergency management offices have in the way of response and recovery practices, staffing and funding...or lack of.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting RufusBaker:
mAN THE GULF IS COLD iTS GONNA TAKE ATLEAST FOUR MONTHS TO WARM UP. GONNA BE ANOTHER DUD OF A HURRICANE SEASON


It's not unusual for the gulf to be quite cold during a cold winter like this. It doesn't take much to warm the gulf up. The models have it up near normal by the start of the hurricane season. And it doesn't mean that the season will be a dud just because the GOM is cold. Only a small fraction of all storms form in the GOM, so it would have little effect on how many total storms form.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
mAN THE GULF IS COLD iTS GONNA TAKE ATLEAST FOUR MONTHS TO WARM UP. GONNA BE ANOTHER DUD OF A HURRICANE SEASON
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Quoting Levi32:


Subtropical-ish, it's only shallowly warm-core. It's called warm-seclusion. It's a fairly common occurrence in mature extra tropical cyclones that are past their peak and have become very large with the frontal zones quite far from the center.


Ok I get it
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246. MTWX
Back to weather now. Been way to cold here in North Mississippi. We are suppose to be in the middle of our tornado season, but all we've been dodging are snowstorms!!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys this is really looking like...

CMC


GFS


UKM


NGP


TROPICL-ISH
SUB-TROPICAL-ISH


Subtropical-ish, it's only shallowly warm-core. It's called warm-seclusion. It's a fairly common occurrence in mature extratropical cyclones that are past their peak and have become very large with the frontal zones quite far from the center.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting MTWX:
A liitle off topic... What do you guys think about all these earthquakes? Another big one hit Taiwan today


I hate them....
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
Quoting TampaSpin:
The wife is yelling at me to get my booty in there and watch American Idol with her.....you all know what i'm gonna do....i gonna get my butt in there! BBL in 2 hours...:)


It's on at my house... I wish the Olympics were still on....
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
242. MTWX
The latest one in Taiwan was a 6.4 that lasted 30 seconds
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guys this is really looking like...

CMC


GFS


UKM


NGP


TROPICL-ISH
SUB-TROPICAL-ISH
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Quoting Levi32:


Pretty good, snowing here and not much to do. How about yourself?


Waiting on the Warmer weather here.... I'm ready to get my garden ready for Food if you know what I mean....

Hi ya xcool good to see ya tonight too :0)

Taco :0)
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239. MTWX
Quoting taco2me61:


I just donot know what to think about all the "Earthquakes we are having..... It is kinda crazy having so many and the Earth off it's axis some 3 degrees....

Taco :0)

USGS reports 14 Magnitude 6.0 and above quakes worldwide in the last week
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StormW FundRaiser for Hurricane Conference

We have collected $390 thus far with a goal of $500 needed. If we get more than $500 the rest goes to PortLight! BBL
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Quoting MTWX:
A liitle off topic... What do you guys think about all these earthquakes? Another big one hit Taiwan today


I just donot know what to think about all the "Earthquakes we are having..... It is kinda crazy having so many and the Earth off it's axis some 3 degrees....

Taco :0)
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236. xcool
taco2me61 in house woof
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Quoting taco2me61:


Ok See ya in 2 hours and Hows it going tonight Levi???

Taco :0)


Pretty good, snowing here and not much to do. How about yourself?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
TampaSpin -- how's the collection for StormW to go to the Conference going? Please excuse me if this was already asked/answered. Good evening & morning all.

Just a little suggestion, maybe you could put the link and the paragraph explaining about the collection on your WU blog as well as your other blog? (BTW, I re-posted your info and link on my WU blog, ok?)


AIM good idea.....i will do that! See you all in 2hours....i gotta go in there smiling :)
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233. MTWX
A liitle off topic... What do you guys think about all these earthquakes? Another big one hit Taiwan today
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Quoting TampaSpin:
The wife is yelling at me to get my booty in there and watch American Idol with her.....you all know what i'm gonna do....i gonna get my butt in there! BBL in 2 hours...:)


Ok See ya in 2 hours and Hows it going tonight Levi???

Taco :0)
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The wife is yelling at me to get my booty in there and watch American Idol with her.....you all know what i'm gonna do....i gonna get my butt in there! BBL in 2 hours...:)
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Quoting Levi32:


Well there is a key difference there. Fran was holding its strength up until landfall, but Bonnie was in the process of beginning to rapidly weaken. The tracking map shows Bonnie was downgrade to a Cat 2 just before landfall. Now there's a rule of thumb that says when a hurricane is intensifying as it comes ashore, expect conditions typical of one category higher, but if the storm is weakening as it makes landfall, widespread conditions similar to a category lower are expected.

This rule is only a general saying, but it does illustrate the tendencies of landfalling storms. Intensifying storms at landfall are far far worse than weakening ones. This is mostly because strengthening hurricanes are tightening at the core as their central pressures lower and winds wind up at the center. Weakening storms have a rising central pressure and generally start spreading out, greatly loosening the pressure gradient around the storm. This usually results in lower winds than you might expect with a storm of a certain category.

Weakening hurricanes are not to be taken lightly though. They typically effect a much larger area, and can still be very dangerous no matter what their category, so always do what's necessary to avoid disaster.

This is one reason why the wind damage from Ike was more indicative of a Cat 3, rather than the Cat 2 that Ike was at landfall in Galveston. (look at the radar loops for Ike... he was *definitely* strengthening)
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Hey Taco :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting TampaSpin:


BOOM da de BOOM BOOM BOOM!!!


Tampa....that's mine....lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting TampaSpin:
Hey Taco.....LOL


While I'm ROFLMAO at you Tampa

Hey

I just could not go with out saying that again.... Yall were so funny last nite....
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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